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Rookie class 2008, another look, biggest decliners


As regulars here no doubt recall, last off season we did a community list of the 20 best prospects for future performance among players who used up their rookie eligibility during the 2008 season.  I am planning on doing a similar project for 2009 prospects during the offseason, but with the 2009 mlb season just about done, I thought this might be a good time to take another look at the 2008 class as they continue to move away from being prospects.  I'm going to reproduce the list below but only comment and poll on players who I think have declined as prospects for future performance over this past year.  I will do a separate fan posts to discuss those players whose stock has gone up over the past year, if you don't see a comment about them below that means that I think that they have improved, or at least not declined as prospects and will be discussing them in my next post.

Star-divide

1. Evan Longoria

2. Jay Bruce-  Has continued to show plenty of power, but a .210 average and 718 OPS have to be considered rather dissapointing for the #2 guy on this list.

3. Clayton Kershaw

4. Geovanny Soto- big decline in performance this year.  Was this high on the list mostly because of his 2008 major league performance as he was only 48th on the community prospect list going into 2008.

5. Joba Chamberlain - He hasn't been bad by any means, but it certainly would be fair to call his performance "ordinary" which is criticism enough for the guy whom "Joba rules" were invented for.

6. Chris Davis - In some ways a similar story to Jay Bruce, although a bit lower on the list to start with, and someone whom there always was a bit of skepticism about, especially regarding his ability to make contact which is the exact problem he has had.  With Smoak coming he can still make a nice career for himself but the window is at least starting to close.

7. Joey Votto

8. Jair Jurrjens

9.  Alexei Ramirez-  I suppose that this year has to classified as a mild dissapointment but considering that he has played every day and done pretty well for himself, with essentially no expectations going into 2008, I think the better way to think about him is that he has proved that he really is a major leaguer, as such he is  certainly nott a candidate for the biggest decliner as a prospect.

10. Clay Buchholz- Another one who is very close to the line between moving up and moving down.  Given his ranking going into 2008, we should be dissapointed that he he isn't a cy young candidate.  But the #10 ranking at the end of the year took most of the air out of that balloon--at this point we have to be at least somewhat pleased that he seems at least pointed in the right direction in the majors--finally.

11. Max Scherzer-

12. Johnny Cueto-

13. Jacoby Ellsbury

14. Pablo Sandoval

15. Chris Volstad- The 5.00+ era has to be called mildly dissapointing, but considering that we are talking about the guy ranked #15 on the list, not that bad a season really.

16. Jed Lowrie- lost season largely due to injury.  Now what?

17. Jeff Clement-  First guy on this list who hasn't seen the majors this year.  At times decent in the minors but we were expecting more by this point.

18. Joey Devine -  Another lost year due to injury.  

19. Denard Span

20. Justin Masterson

 

I am not listing players who ranked below #20 as it is hard to see that you could have declined all that far as a prospect if you weren't even ranked among the top 20 of your rookie class to being with.  Overall, we have to be somewhat happy with this list as almost as everyone up to #15 got regular playing time.

 

-

Poll
Whose stock as a prospect has fallen the most among the class of 2008, or, put another way, whose expectations of their major league career have fallen the most compared to where they were ranked in this poll going into this year. Discuss below
Jay Bruce
35 votes
Geovanny Soto
95 votes
Joba Chamberlain
31 votes
Chris Davis
59 votes
Jed Lowrie
12 votes
Jeff Clement
76 votes
Joey Devine
18 votes
other
1 votes

327 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 57 comments

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Comments

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I voted for Clement. However when your team refuses to let you try in the Majors I’m sure that can sap your desire to do well in the minors. So maybe a trade and a callup can rejuvinate his bat.

Who is the best on that list? My vote is Kershaw… beast…

by kershaw_equals_stud on Sep 23, 2025 11:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

kershaw is the best

then longoria votto and sandoval

by matthewmafa on Sep 23, 2025 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kershaw is in no way a better player than Longoria.

Longoria is one of the best hitters in baseball, and is a world-class defender at 3B. Kershaw is (currently) a good pitcher who looks great because of good luck and his ballpark. No way is his performance sustainable in a neutral environment with that kind of control.

That’s not to say that Kershaw won’t improve. He’s phenomenal for his age. It’s just that pitchers don’t necessarily improve as they age, at least not like hitters, and an elite position player is typically always worth more than an elite pitcher.

by PissedMick on Sep 25, 2025 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

didn't Clement already get traded to the Pirates?

So hopefully he can get a shot now sometime next year…

by slickterp on Sep 24, 2025 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Probably as a 1B

Mariners were always concerned with his durability to stick behind the plate. He’d have been up at DH this year if the year-long Ken Griffey Jr. retirement show hadn’t swept into town to put butts in seats, or at 1B if Branyan hadn’t turned out to be such a beast.

Now that he’s in the NL I’d expect the Pirates to at least try him at C where his bat would be above-average, but odds are he’ll probably wind up as a league average-ish 1B.

Gotta vote for Clement as the biggest drop off, even if it wasn’t necessarily his fault the system he languished in for the last 2 years didn’t want him.

IF I WAS MANAGER I'D HAVE A FIST FIGHT WITH YUNI RIGHT NOW AND KNOCK HIS FUCKING MONKEY HEAD CLEAN OFF (~EM)

by seattlecougar on Sep 24, 2025 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As you know, Clement failed in Seattle because he was a lousy catcher

and they didn’t think he was so stellar a hitter that they would play him at DH or first. Obviously he won’t DH in the NL so that leaves first base where his plus bat as a catcher may be closer average as a first baseman,

I think the Mariners would have been wiser playing him some at DH rather than Griffey, if only to boost his trade value.

BTW, despite that criticism, I’m quite impressed with the new management regime in Seattle — I’m not a Mariner’s fan but I admire the direction the organization has gone.

by Rotofan on Sep 26, 2025 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

comment about buchholz

i think it’s a bit unfair to “be dissapointed that he he isn’t a cy young candidate”. i mean really? buchholz is only 25, he pitches in the hardest division in baseball, and in a hitter’s park. plus he had a lot of competition for a sp spot. he’s been pitching well over the past month, and his overall numbers (aside from k:bb) has been decent. he still has frontline starter upside. if he was in the nl he would probably be putting up more impressive numbers and he wouldn’t be in this discussion lol.

by bk11 on Sep 23, 2025 11:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Chamberlain

He has been pretty bad thus far. tRA+ is 92, behind Mike Pelfrey, just ahead of Jeremy Guthrie. Certainly not what you’d hope for. But I think Soto has lost the most from his pre-2009 expectations as far as what the sum of his career will look like.

by wobatus on Sep 23, 2025 12:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

on the contrary

As a Yankee hater, that’s exactly what I hope for with Joba.

by rmarx on Sep 23, 2025 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

+1

Made me laugh

by DeJay on Sep 24, 2025 7:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yankee hater

I don’t hate the yankees, but I am a Mets fan, so it doesn’t exactly break my heart.

by wobatus on Sep 24, 2025 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Joba's stock is down quite a bit...

His yo-yo velocity and durability have also been issues. His stuff certainly isnt anywhere near what it was last year out of the pen - when it was as good as anyone’s in baseball. He’s still a very good, front of the rotation potential starter. Im always inclined to give a pass to young pitchers with great stuff who are struggling. I think most reasonable people didnt expect him to look the same as Joba the reliever and take that stuff and velocity late into games… but there were some who did.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2025 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joba the starter

Joba did show the mid-90’s heat as a starter last season, and while he wasn’t touching 99 like he did out of the pen, he was hitting 95-96 with some regularity before he was shut down with a shoulder injury/tired shoulder. This year, he hasn’t had the same juice for the most part.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com

by lemonjello on Sep 23, 2025 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

list....

That list would look much different this year than last year—it would be interesting to remake the list . A lot of the guys at the bottom (or not on) of the list are doing better than the ones near the top.

This is a nice cautionary tale—whatever you think about this year’s rookies is probably mostly wrong.

by DenverBears on Sep 23, 2025 12:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bruce and Soto

Their years were certainly disappointing, but the offensive decline was due in large part to a substantial BABIP drop. In fact, both players showed superior plate discipline, and Bruce even showed more pop.

2008 Bruce: 7.4% BB — 26.6% K — .199 ISO — .298 BABIP
2009 Bruce: 9.0% BB — 22.6% K — .223 ISO — .213 BABIP

2008 Soto: 11.2% BB — 24.5% K — .219 ISO — .337 BABIP
2009 Soto: 12.9% BB — 23.2% K — .170 ISO — .250 BABIP

I’m not necessarily worried about either of them.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 23, 2025 2:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

.213?

Ye gods. Is that the worst in the majors?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 23, 2025 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was going to post the same thing

I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Sep 23, 2025 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

soto's power dropped significantly tho

and makes me think his Rookie year was flukish.

by daveh33 on Sep 23, 2025 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

It’s all the injuries that he’s suffered through this year that has sapped his power. First it was the shoulder inflammation, then he had an oblique injury, finally, it was his hand. If anything, THIS YEAR is the fluke when you combine all that with his incredibly low BABIP.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Sep 24, 2025 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His rookie year looked flukish anyway, IMO

It was way out of line with prior performance. Sometimes it’s because of an actual improvement, but that’s the exception and not the rule.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Sep 25, 2025 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong

Soto’s 2008 was a continuation of the improvements made in the 2007 season. Why don’t you look up the numbers before making such a ridiculous claim?

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Sep 26, 2025 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

re Buchholz and Bruce

When I talked about it being dissapointing that he isn’t a Cy Young Candidate I was in the context of his being ranked as one of the very few top prospects in all of baseball coming into 2008. AS I think I said given his rank as #10 in this group at the end of last year, i think this season would have to be considered pretty consistent with that ranking.

As for Bruce, being a bit more of an AL fan I can’t say that i was fully aware of his BABIP numbers. A 213 BABIP is pretty shocking, especially for a guy who has some power. Unless there is something he is doing like popping out or hitting weak grounders to explain that, you would have to think that woud reverse to a considerable degree.

By the way, I will post regarding biggest improvements in standing sometime tomorrow.

by Dalman on Sep 23, 2025 3:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Volstad is being hurt by his batted ball profile

For a pitcher that put up high GB rates in the minors and has 50 % GB this year, that 17.3 HR/F ratio is really hurting him. That is well above the 10 % it normalises around. Volstad’s FIP right now is being hurt solely because of this. If he improves on his 2/1 K/BB and keeps on getting GB, he can become a good #3.

by tdot mariner fan on Sep 24, 2025 3:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

have people been watching Buchholz lately?

I’m watching him now and his stuff looks unbelievable. That changeup is one of the best in the game and his fastball hit 97 seven times and 98 once in three innings. He’s also started to mix in his slider more and it might become an above average pitch soon. His curveball has been inconsistent but when he snaps off a good one, it is unhittable. Command is the only thing that has been holding him back and it has been improving. I really think he is starting to live up to his potential and the Red Sox have the best rotation going into the playoffs.

by Jimothy on Sep 24, 2025 9:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

red sox have the best rotation??

what???

wheRE?"

josh beket has been great lately lol

by matthewmafa on Sep 24, 2025 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His slider is already plus IMO

ERA down to 3.21, and he might have surpassed Porcello as having he best groundball rate in the AL

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Sep 24, 2025 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More on Buchholz from Boston.com
Feats of Clay
Permalink|Comments (7) Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff September 25, 2025 12:59 AM

Some quick perspective on the roll that Clay Buchholz is on after he allowed five hits in 6 2/3 shutout innings tonight in a 10-3 victory over the Royals:

-His ERA for the season is now 3.21, the lowest of any Red Sox starter.

-He is 4-0 with a 0.98 WHIP and a 1.38 ERA in this month, the fifth best September ERA in the major leagues.

-The Red Sox have won his last eight starts.

-He walked no one in a start for the first time this year and threw 109 pitches, the most he’s thrown this season.

-He has allowed two earned runs in his last 28 2/3 innings.

-Of the last 146 batters he’s faced over 41 innings, only one has hit a home run.

-His groundball percentage is 67.2, sixth in the American League among pitchers with at least 75 innings.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/09/feats_of_clay.html

by alskor on Sep 25, 2025 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DAMN

what a groundball Percentage!

by matthewmafa on Sep 25, 2025 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is this more sarcasm?

Groundball percentage is extremely important. Getting groundballs is probably the second most important thing a pitcher can do to succeed.

by alskor on Sep 26, 2025 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it is not sarcasm

67 percent??/

the leader is only at 61 percent!

i never knew he was such a groundball machine…… when did he become this?? no wonder he is strking out less people… hes become a groundball machine

by matthewmafa on Sep 26, 2025 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

name me a better top three than lester, beckett, and buchholz going into the playoffs.

by Jimothy on Sep 24, 2025 9:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

verlander jackson porcello

sabathia burnett and pettite

lee hamels blanton

carpenter wainwright piniero

would u like me to continue on?

by matthewmafa on Sep 24, 2025 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ummm

i cant tell if you’re being serious. lester is going to be the best pitcher in the playoffs, beckett had a little rough stretch about a month ago, but he has turned it around and nobody wants to face him in october, and buchholz is looking unhittable right now. the sabathia burnett pettitte one made me lol so thanks for that.

by Jimothy on Sep 24, 2025 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sabathia is as good as lester

burnett has also just had a rough stretch.. like beckett otherwise hes unhittable

and pettite wont fold under pressure like bucholz is going to

by matthewmafa on Sep 24, 2025 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ummm

Lester since the start of June has gone 128.1IP 34ER 2.39ERA 99H 141/36 K/BB. CC has been good but not that good.

Burnett has nearly double the walk rate of Beckett on the season, and in Burnett’s last 56IP his H/9 is 10.13. Beckett’s H/9 his past 64.1IP is 9.23. Burnett is just not as good.

The third comment is just moronic so I will leave it alone

by Jimothy on Sep 24, 2025 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lester has been an ace this year. Point. Blank. Period.

Also, if it weren’t for Beckett’s horrid July, we would have 3 starting pitchers with an ERA in the low-3’s, which is absurd considering the division in which they’re pitching in — the dreaded AL East.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Sep 24, 2025 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The AL East is dreaded

because of guys like these three.

by alskor on Sep 25, 2025 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It made me lol, too

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Sep 24, 2025 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wtf

Sabathia, Burnett, Pettite is the worst 3-man rotation out of the 8 projected playoff teams, outside the Rockies.

Burnett has a 4.19 ERA and a 4.38 FIP.

Pettite has a 4.15 ERA and a 4.07 FIP.

It’s 2009. Get with the program, you chode.

And, yes, I would take Lester/Beckett/Buchholz over all of those rotations minus maybe the Cardinals, but I’m not sure.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Sep 24, 2025 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This post was to matthewmafa

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Sep 24, 2025 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes its 2009

and josh beckett is a home run giving up machine

by matthewmafa on Sep 25, 2025 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i still cant tell if you are being serious

Beckett has given up 1 more HR this year then Burnett.

The Cardinals are the only team that is really close. Production wise the top 3 have been better, but I feel like if the Red Sox played in the NL Central the numbers would be similar. Would definitely not want to face them in a short series though.

by Jimothy on Sep 25, 2025 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a good sense for sarcasm on teh internets,

and I actually do think he’s being serious.

If Greinke were in the NL, he’s be sporting a 1.67 ERA right now.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Sep 25, 2025 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

alright the yankees rotation might be less

but the phillies and cardinals have better rotations

by matthewmafa on Sep 25, 2025 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No.

No they don’t.

by PissedMick on Sep 25, 2025 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

He wouldn’t.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Sep 26, 2025 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah ur rite

it would be more around 0.98

by matthewmafa on Sep 26, 2025 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, he's actually not.

12 of his 25 home runs were given up in August.

Even if you include that shitty month, he’s still been a considerably better pitcher than both Burnett and Petitte, and hasn’t been much behind Sabathia.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Sep 25, 2025 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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