Not A Rookie: Matt Joyce

An unheralded rookie from the 2008 class is Tampa Bay outfielder Matt Joyce, acquired this past December from the Tigers.

The Tigers drafted Joyce in the 12^th round in 2005, out of Florida Southern College. He had a mediocre junior season and scouts rated his tools as just average, but he had impressed Detroit officials with good performance against them during a spring training scrimmage. His pro debut was very strong: .331/.397/.453 in the New York-Penn League, posting a +26 percent OPS and showing excellent strike zone judgment with 30 walks against 29 strikeouts in 245 at-bats. I rated him as a Grade C+ in the 2006 book, with a sleeper notice, needing to see data from higher levels, but liking the early numbers.

Promoted to West Michigan in the Midwest League in 2006, Joyce hit .258/.338/.415 with 11 homers, 30 doubles, 56 walks, and 70 strikeouts in 465 at-bats. That may not look great on the surface, but his OPS was still positive at +9, and the high walk rate/low strikeout rate combination was still intriguing. I gave him a Grade C entering 2007, noting that he might increase his power and was worth keeping a close eye on.

The Tigers jumped Joyce to Double-A in 2007 and he responded with a .257/.333/.454 mark, with 17 homers. His strikeout rate spiked up to 127 in 456 at-bats, but his walks remained OK and his isolated power increased by 40 points. In the 2008 book, I noted his performance but expressed some concern about his strikeout rate, and the fact that despite the power increase, his OPS relative to league actually dropped to +7 from +9 the year before.. However, there was something about Joyce that made me think I had a chance to develop. I wrote "I have no objective evidence for this, but Joyce strikes me as the kind of player who might be a late bloomer, sneaking up on us maybe in '08, but more likely in ‘09".

As you know, Joyce split 2008 between Triple-A Toledo (.270/.352/.550) and the Tigers, hitting .252/.339/.492.

PECOTA comps aren't glamorous... the best one is Bobby Higginson, showing up at number four on the PECOTA list. PECOTA really hates Joyce, giving him a .226/.306/.404 projection this year. Shandler is much more optimistic at .259/.335/.478 and believes he has 30-homer potential. Given that the Tigers traded Joyce quickly, perhaps they agree more with PECOTA and were selling high.

Personally, I don't think what he did in Detroit last year is a fluke. I think he's a .240.-.260 hitter with solid power from the left side, so my expectation is closer to Shandler than PECOTA. I like the walks, and I like the fact that he doesn't strike out excessively for a guy with power. He's not going to be a star, but he should prove quite useful. Right now he needs to get healthy, as a leg injury has cost him most of spring training.