Melville has the highest ceiling. Gutierrez has the second highest and Montgomery has the third. The reason Montgomery is rated higher than Melville in most places is because he did really well at the end of last saeson in short season ball.

Most of the Royals pitching prospects project as mid-rotation guys, with some having more upside. My guess:

Melville- Was #1 HS SP entering 2008, lost some stuff, but no reason to think he can’t regain it. Upside= Low #1/High #2 (Might not be among K/9 leaders, but has potential to be among ERA leaders)

Montgomery- Great debut, projectability, and an athlete. Already sits at Low 90s FB touching 95, and has room to grow on 6’5"/180 frame (could add a touch of velocity, and IMO a lefty 95 is better than a righty 95 anyway). Makings of a plus changeup and unique palm curve. Upside- #2

Duffy- 165Ks in 119IP. Yes, it gets harder as you move up the ladder, but those numbers don’t grow on trees. Another lefty, he touches 94 and has what could be a plus curve (not consistent with it though. Upside- #2/3

Gutierrez- Still just 21, his velocity spiked 3MPH last year, and has the makings of a devastating curve. Upside- #2/3

Rosa- 2 plus pitches (FB and slider), but has some stamina/durability concerns. Personally, I think they should try as much as possible to continue development as an SP, turning to RP as a last resort. Upside- #3SP/Closer

Cortes- True plus curve, and a solid FB. However, he doesn’t have a reliable 3rd pitch, so some project him for bullpen. Has advanced and shown the most of this list in upper levels, but still needs a 3rd pitch to be an SP. Upside-#2SP/Closer

It’s nice to see these guys get a fanpost, but KC really has a lot of depth behind them too:

Tyler Sample has huge potential, but is still very raw.

Kelvin Herrera will turn 19 this year, but so far in his minor league career has gone 106IP, 91H, 22BB, 102K, 1.27ERA.

Blake Wood can look like an ace or like he’s lost depending on the day, but could be a mid rotation guy (with #2 upside) with better control.

Henry Barrera (78Ks in 58IP) could be a very nice RP

Others: Fortuna, Pimentel, Mitchell (TJ), Runion (Big upside, very raw), Abreu (104Ks in 76IP, but bad ARL), Hayenga, Fisher, Cegarra, Blake Johnson….

If I had to Gamble: Melville becomes a solid #3/4. Rosa becomes a solid swingman in KC, leaves in FA and closes somewhere else. The others are a mishmash of limited successes and some failures, in some fashion. I do have a man crush on Duffy, so I’m pulling for him especially…and I’m a Royals fan, so I hope they all do well.

Caveat: My upsides are just that. I’m not saying each of those guys likely turns into their upside. Just saying that if they continue to develop offspeed stuff and/or refine control, that’s the upside. I realize each have their warts, I am just answering the questions presented.

heard Melville compared to Adam Wainwright, which should give you an idea of what type of pitcher he could be. Montgomery could be a 2 if lucky, but the rest of the guys shouldn’t be anything btter than a 3.

Can anyone verify or disprove? KG’s write up really put me off on Montgomery.

I think Melville, Cortes, Gutierrez and Duffy have the highest ceilings and are the best prospects, in that order. I say that because Im assuming Rosa is a reliever. I think BP was a little harsh on these guys. There’s a few other interesting arms in this system, too, like Runion.