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BP's Top 100 Prospects

1. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles
2. David Price, LHP, Rays
3. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
5. Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
7. Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers
8. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals
9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
10. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves

...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8506

Just from a quick look, some differences from the community list are Brandon Allen at #99 (don't think he's even been put in a poll yet); Detwiller at #81 and not on the list yet. Community is a lot higher on Andrus (#24 v. #73) but he's a Ranger. Goldstein a lot higher on Castro (#120 v. #76).

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Alderson

BIIIIGGGG difference

  1. for KG, an embarrassing #12 for the community list.

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 12:54 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

HTML code is messing with me

NUMBER (cant use number sign): 60 for BP, 12 here

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 12:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you can use #, you just can't start a line with it.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 12:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Holland
  1. here, #40 there… Id say that accurately reflects his inflation on this site

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 12:55 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

need to work on the formatting.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 12:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Niiiiice

I think the biggest surprise is just how high Rosario is up on that list. He’s usually not mentioned in the same breath as Santana and the Jesus, but apparently KG thinks he should. Arencibia’s high too. I like this list a lot, especially with respect for Kulbacki and Bard.

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Feb 13, 2026 12:57 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rosario

Supposedly has “superstar potential,” according to the writeup in the book.

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 1:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Michael Main

Dead on… 61 here, 66 for BP.

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 12:57 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Michael Inoa

72 for the community list, a much better IMO 20 for BP

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 12:59 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

tough to evaluate a guy with zero record, though, when you don't have the connections that goldstein does.

i’d rather see caution from people (us) who don’t have much to go on. otherwise, all you’re really doing is parroting the opinion of other experts without really being critical. goldstein doing that to an extent, as well, but he’s a pro ;)

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 1:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You know

you could have just done one post like this with all the names in it.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 13, 2026 4:35 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.

by Kinslerhomer on Feb 13, 2026 4:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you know

if you dont like it, dont read it. I posted the guys I thought were worthy of discussion. Im sorry your favorites werent ranked where you wanted them.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 1:40 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where they were ranked

had nothing to do with my post. I just meant you could have made one post with all of the guys you thought worthy of discussion, I said nothing about your opinions.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 14, 2026 9:34 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Considering each of my posts got mutliple responses

I think this was the best way.

Unless you enjoy those threads were there are fifteen responses and the last ones get squished into a tiny box at the right side of the screen,

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 10:37 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good point.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 14, 2026 1:58 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i do

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Feb 15, 2026 7:35 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeremy Hellickson...

42 on the community list, unranked on Goldstein’s.

by slamcactus on Feb 13, 2026 1:11 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he's never been high on him. thinks he won't make it at higher levels.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 2:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and from his comments

 Kevin Goldstein
BP staff
(27460)I like him quite a bit, just not convinced on the ceiling and body enough to give him a push to 4-stars.

Feb 13, 2026 10:45 AM

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 2:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wouldn't say

he has some sort of agenda, unless by agenda you mean using his prospect reasoning skills to come to the conclusion that he won’t be a successful MLB’er…

by slurve on Feb 13, 2026 2:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the horror. a different opinion!

must be stamped out.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 2:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

now you're talking.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 2:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Overall...

This list is much better than the one Keith Law put out — anyone else agree?

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 1:13 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I find myself largely in agreement with the rankings here, whereas Law’s list had me pulling my hair our at some of the rankings

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Feb 13, 2026 1:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

This list is always the benchmark for me.

Basically, I get John’s rankings and Goldstein’s and scrutinize them for differences.

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

-1

Just personal preference, but my personal top 100 is closer to Law’s than KG’s. I definitely pulled more hairs out looking over KG’s list (I like that as a point of reference).

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Feb 13, 2026 3:03 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like both

I probably agree with Goldstein’s rankings more, but I thought they both offered a lot of insight (the comments section on BP is especially useful for Goldstein), and each of them broke with the consensus enough of the time to be interesting. I think people in general get a little too hung up on the details of the rankings, because the difference of ten or twenty slots on one of these lists isn’t really that significant most of the time.

by aap212 on Feb 13, 2026 3:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bowden at 31

Awesome. Severely under-rated on the community list IMO.

by slurve on Feb 13, 2026 1:17 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Directly above Jarrod Parker at 32

I fully expect that one to cause a s***storm around here…

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah...

but he is closer and had a great season last year. I for one am OK with it…

by slurve on Feb 13, 2026 1:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, I agree completely

Bowden is severely underrated on this site.

I was just saying… some people here seem to have a strong dislike of Bowden and have more or less dismissed him as a prospect… hopefully theyll be distracted by the Alderson rating

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah...

The Cahill/Anderson placement should distract the other half around here. Hold on to your bandwidth, this is gonna be a loooong thread.

by slurve on Feb 13, 2026 1:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its funny

how its always others who pop off about Anderson/Cahill and the way A’s fans are about them. Then it triggers a discussion and A’s fans are blasted for talking about it, again. I see it time and time again and usually don’t say anything but its getting to the point of being hilarious. It seems as though fans of other teams/prospects always have something to say regarding the A’s and their prospects (I notice it with other teams as well, just less) and as soon as an apparent A’s fan chimes in with something the general response is “here we Go!!! Damn A’s fans talking it up again!!”. If you don’t wanna hear about A’s baseball, don’t make a smart ass comment to trigger a conversation.

by JPShark on Feb 13, 2026 2:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

If A's fans complain about having 3 of the top 10 pitching prospects

Then they should really grow up. But I don’t find the A’s fans on here to be that irksome. Every team has an irrational homer or ten on this site.

by aap212 on Feb 13, 2026 3:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Over reaction

Settle down Beavis. I was merely making a statement that is founded in a shit ton of history. Wasn’t slamming the A’s fan’s, though a few (not all) could use it.

by slurve on Feb 13, 2026 6:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Beavis here.

That was cute by the way, but I think you could have done better. I really didn’t have much of a problem with your comment, or the placement of some of these guys for that matter. I was just making a statement regarding some of the comments on this site from time to time. I’m with the people that don’t like Inoa ahead of Anderson/Cahill because I want to see the guy throw a few pitches as a professional before he ranks that high. I don’t get fired up about these lists because when all is said and done they mean next to nothing. What does get a little irritating is that a good amount of the time it’s non A’s fans who stir the pot and make some smart ass remark like “uh oh, those damn A’s fans aren’t gonna like that list!! Get ready for some bitching!!”. A’s fans catch a bad rap on this site, yet it seems just as likely that a lot of these arguments stem from others who are butthurt about the A’s and just like to hear themselves talk. Trust me, I know there are some people on here that are arrogant and annoying. I’ve seen a few A’s supporters on here that are way out of line. It happens, and it happens with all fan bases. I just think the talking that goes on about A’s fans on this site is a little over the top and needs to chill, because it looks as though there are plenty of other people that like to stir it up.

by JPShark on Feb 14, 2026 7:32 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So... youre okay with the placement of Anderson and Cahill on the BP list...?

Or was slurve dead on in predicting its something you would disagree with?

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 2:09 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would have him lower personally

Probably drop him to around 12.

I still have some concerns but you guys have for the most part swayed me on Porcello…

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not from me

i’d put him 3 or 4. probably 4. Neftali would be one spot in front of him.

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2026 2:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It seems to me the community list's major flaw

is in not properly valuing guys for what they do well…. they make the cardinal sin of focusing on what they can’t do or who they arent. That’s the hallmark of bad GMs.

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And bad managers

But honestly, I think the community list’s problem is that it’s a community effort, sadly. I think if you were to have 100 rational, non-homer (to whatever degree possible), reasonably intelligent readers from this site, and have them write lists individually, then average them out, you’d get a better list. Most of the individual lists would be better, too. I appreciate the work Pinstripes and King Billy put in, but I think the very nature of a list like that is to end up far more disjointed and irrational than if it were from one voice, or the sum of voices that didn’t discuss things with each other.

by aap212 on Feb 13, 2026 3:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Also the tester system

is terribly flawed. Lots of good players would have been voted in but they were testers when an obvious choice came up so they got cycled out and didnt come back up for ten more picks. I dont understand why that system was chosen.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 2:07 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Neither do I

But it was such a difficult task to undertake that I don’t quibble to much with the specific methodologies. I just think the results were inevitably going to be weird.

by aap212 on Feb 14, 2026 2:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You could have done better?

Funny but I don’t remember you volunteering to help. I have taken enormous amounts of input from the community to run the testers in a proper way. Guys get cut from a poll when they fall below 7. When a player who gets cut garners a higher percentage (i.e. Erbe gets 6, Jackson gets 2%) he is more likely to soon be on another poll.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Feb 14, 2026 11:07 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And I don't care for a guy whining who took no initiative to volunteer his services or provide me with any constructive feedback.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Feb 14, 2026 1:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

Stop crying Alskor. I just find it funny when people whine about how others do something when they took no initiative to help out. You must love being a sideline QB.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Feb 15, 2026 12:48 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Personally

I thought the discussions were fun—much of the time—when we did the community list, and that was the valuable thing. Hell, I think that’s the valuable thing with Goldstein or Law’s list, too. Who cares that much about the individual rankings? I think the methodology for the community list may not have been ideal, but I’m also fairly certain there isn’t an ideal way to do it.

by aap212 on Feb 15, 2026 3:48 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very good list overall

I only had 4 big time disagreements on guys. That leaves 96 other guys in the right area and thats a good sign of a very strong list to me.

by dougdirt on Feb 13, 2026 1:19 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh man!

Somebody just brought it up in the comments - NO TEAGARDEN

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:34 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and let me say I fully agree.

though Id have him as a near miss (say 101-120 range)

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Teagarden vs Arencibia

A big gap in your eyes? That’s my issue with leaving Teagarden off. If you’re going to put Arencibia at 41, how do you leave Tea off?

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Feb 14, 2026 12:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No Max Ramirez either

fwiw.

Though I was SHOCKED to see him at 30 on the cpl. Just absurd.

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Strasburg

jnewfry: Where would Strasburg land?

Kevin Goldstein: Top Three.

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:41 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

gripes

Brett Wallace - - too low.

Logan Morrison - - way too low.

no Dominic Brown? (and ben revere all the way at #36?? and no Brown?) fail.

say what you will about Law, I like his methods better. he goes after OBP guys, you at least know what to expect. I don’t get KG, and I still don’t forgive him for putting J Upton at #27 that one time. ;-)

still, this is pretty decent. I like his top 20 for the most part. usually there is some terrible omission of a big prospect, and this year there isn’t. except for Hellickson. there is no way Davis places at 29 and Hellickson doesn’t rank. lots of Rays die-hards like just as much or even better.

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2026 1:43 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

just checked the stats

Vitters’ OBP in the NWL was .365 last year…. thats not that bad.

and of course, you have to recognize talent when you see it. as in, the elite pedigree prospects are afforded a few blips on the radar.
also, let Vitters try out full season A-ball before we doubt his abilities

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 7:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A number of odd cases with KG's Top 100

Buster Posey 6 spots ahead of Tim Beckham basically implies that the Rays took the wrong player.

No Triunfel on the list seems a little odd as well.

by Ophidian on Feb 13, 2026 1:44 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also

There seem’s to be a bit of SNTS with new draftee’s and “out of nowhere” prospects getting a ton of love.

by Ophidian on Feb 13, 2026 1:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No...

all it implies is that one man likes him better at this point and that Posey has some college experience.

by slurve on Feb 13, 2026 1:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

plus we have more info now than we did at the time of the draft.

Other issues:
-$
-Team needs/MiLB depth
-Tools/ceiling considerations
-Theyre closely enough ranked that its not an obviously bad choice. Its not like Castro over Smoak or anything…

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 1:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe the Rays did take the wrong player...

I can understand Posey ahead of Beckham even if I don’t necessarily agree with it.

by byronlhsdrmr on Feb 13, 2026 7:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Martin Perez should be on the back end of the list, imo.

"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.

by Kinslerhomer on Feb 13, 2026 1:48 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

God forbid

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Feb 13, 2026 2:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Portillo

If he’s making it at 100, Perez HAS to be listed, this from a Red Sox fan.

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Feb 14, 2026 12:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

+1

my thoughts exactly.`

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blah

That logic could be applied to any number of prospects. KG obviously thinks incredibly highly of Portillo.

by aCone419 on Feb 16, 2026 2:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My gripes

… not many, the biggest one is Freeman @ 80. That’s lower than both Law (65, I think) and the community list here (low 40’s I think). 80 is too low, 20-30 spots higher is ideal for Freeman considering production and age. I guess I’m with the community on Freeman.

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 1:51 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

oh yeah

forgot to put him on my gripes list.

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2026 2:03 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I generally like KG

But his love for children borders on pedophilic. Inoa at #20? Over both Cahill and Anderson? I think I am gonna have to report him Child Protective Services.

by aCone419 on Feb 13, 2026 2:03 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agreed

Inoa may have craploads of potential but until he has done anything on an actual baseball field I think you have to be skeptical

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Feb 13, 2026 3:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Inoa

Has talent a historic level of talent, he says.

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 2:04 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well if Inoa is stupid enough to break his hand

in a bar fight, then I will downgrade him.

Not to say Id have him as high as BP… I certainly wouldnt…. but tools wise and projection wise he is off the charts and is getting little respect for it. Imagine if you could clone Inoa and he was drafted 1st overall… how would that make people feel about him? Would you give him the benefit of the doubt then?

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 2:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

brien taylor was the number one overall pick

beckham hasn’t done anything good in the minors yet, where is he ranked, ahead of inoa?

nice argument genius

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 15, 2026 10:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's almost like he's comparing

talented young pitchers, and not #1 draft picks.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 15, 2026 11:11 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Amazing, right?

Someone refers to KG’s comment that Inoa has talent on a historic level, I bring up someone else that had that same kind of review, and I get blasted for bringing it up.

Point is, there are sooo many things that can go wrong with a historically-amazing talent. He could not adjust well to live in the USA. He could break his hand in a bar fight. He could get that big signing bonus and be satisfied that he got his big payday and just not bring forth the effort necessary to make the bigs. He could blow his elbow or shoulder out.

The kid is 16 folks. Great talent, but he’s also 2 years behind the high schoolers that were drafted this past year. I know that’s a tough concept to get your arms around sometimes, but he is a VERY LONG ways away.

by guru4u on Feb 15, 2026 5:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wheres Triunfel

No Triunfel on his top 100?

…geesh.

by barlow078 on Feb 13, 2026 2:10 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Triunfel

There seems to be an awfully wide range of opinions on Triunfel:

Triunfel ranks:

McKamey: 20/100
Law: 22/100
Callis: NR/50
Lingo: NR/50
Manuel: NR/50
Goldstein: NR/100
Sickels: 24/50 (hitters)

…. as high as 20 on one top 100 list to not being on another at all

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 2:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is that from Sickels book?

or from his fantasy rotowire(or whatever) list?

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 2:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE

book… which, of course, should be bought by everyone here.

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 2:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its not surprising to me to see

such varying opinions on young toolsy unproven guys… Inoa is the same thing… then look at how high Goldstein has Engel Beltre…

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 2:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

KG had this to say:
Scouts I talked to don’t like the effort, don’t like the body for the middle of the diamond, and he’s a 3-star guy for me.

in the comments

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 2:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Beltre...

actually has a pretty good performance record. He has approach problems, but showing the power he did as an 18 y/o in the midwest league is very impressive. It’s a really tough place to slug .400, and the past few years are full of examples of teenagers who hold their own in the MWL breaking out the next year.

by slamcactus on Feb 13, 2026 5:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why?

Both teams are amply represented on the list.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 13, 2026 4:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sarcasm?

Just a guess

http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on Feb 13, 2026 6:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You never know

around here.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 13, 2026 11:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ranking Inoa a. #20, and b. ahead of Cahill and Anderson, makes me lose a lot of respect for this list...

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 13, 2026 2:14 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh Sure

Because there’s such a HUGE difference in being the #20 prospect and the #24/25 prospect in all of baseball.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 13, 2026 3:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

still the principle of..

having two guys who have dominated at time and will pitch in the majors this year behind a guy at least 3 years away

by jsmall404 on Feb 13, 2026 3:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Especially

Especially if you consider that it isn’t like Cahill is a low-ceiling prospect that’s getting points for being close to the majors.

by Ophidian on Feb 13, 2026 4:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be fair...

If you think Inoa has an even or better shot at being a Dwight Gooden or even Felix Hernandez level teenage prospect based on talking to a great deal of scouts who have seen him pitch, then I can understand ranking him that high. And putting both Cahill and Anderson in the top 25 is not a slight to them.

by aap212 on Feb 13, 2026 4:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i wouldnt consider cahill w/ a low ceiling

thought this time last yr, the hype surrounded dls/hrod more than cahill/anderson…due to having the great fastballs.

by Asfan4ever723 on Feb 13, 2026 5:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't like the term ceiling.

I can understand how that applies to physical limitations but there are other aspects of the game. I mean did Brandon Webb have a high ceiling coming out? How about Tim Hudson? There are a multitude of pitchers who have surpassed all expectations because they understood how to pitch. So saying someone like Cahill or Bowden have low ceilings I find humorous

by AthleticsReign on Feb 14, 2026 4:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Ceilings aren't permanent, immovable objects

they’re just estimations of talent. With more data they can easily be adjusted and, of course, the estimations can just be wrong.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 15, 2026 6:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE:Ceiling

When someone says ceiling they should be talking about the best possible outcome. Not what they are projecting the player to actually be.“If everything goes right…” I would concede that at times a ceiling is surpassed, but I don’t think it is all that often. It also depends on when that qualification is made. On draft day, someone could rip the pick and say he won’t be more than a 3rd starter, but I think you need a larger sample size in pro ball before assigning such a think.

With all that said, ceilings are a waste of time. Sure player x has a ceiling of a all-star, but he is 16 in rookie ball and has pitcher 30 innings so far. I think its a waste.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 15, 2026 9:39 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

tim hudson?

he was a two-way player in college and pretty damn good at both, obviously it was going to take a minute to become great at just one aspect and cloud his projections because some people think how he pitched in college was just as good as he could have done if he hadn’t been hitting too

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 15, 2026 10:59 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reading comprehension

I clearly stated that Cahill is NOT a low-ceiling prospect. A high upside prospect in AAA vs a high upside prospect that’s never thrown a professional pitch generally has me side with guy in AAA since surviving attrition that far is worth a fair bit all on its own.

by Ophidian on Feb 15, 2026 3:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agreed

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Feb 13, 2026 3:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that post made me lose a lot of respect for you...

read the commentary on inoa in the book. should make his position clear.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 3:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

can you paraphrase?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why am i not suprised

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not going to bother asking what you're talking about

since it’s clear you’re just here to take cheap shots at me.

Go fuck yourself.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 15, 2026 5:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

classy

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 1:12 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is?

Is this physically possible? If you know how it can be accomplished, would you mind sharing with us. Well, not truly SHARING, since that would no longer be necessary, but sharing the information I mean.

by sharksrog on Feb 16, 2026 2:49 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depends

Do you consider your hand to be yourself?

by aCone419 on Feb 16, 2026 3:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PT is just mad

because i am ruining the validity of his online poll…

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 3:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ethan Martin over Alderson?

Heyward down at 10? At one glance KG in is love with the young athletic guys (especially OF), and he seems to put zero weight on performances.

by jsmall404 on Feb 13, 2026 2:17 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think

ranking a guy like Bowden as high as 31 kind of negates that. It seems KG prefers projection to performance but still values numbers.

by Kenan and Kel on Feb 13, 2026 2:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ugh...

Why is there the perception scouts don’t like Bowden!?? Its absolutely not true.

He has very good stuff!

Here is the write up from KG:

Bowden fills the strike zone with an effective three-pitch mix; a low-90s fastball that has good carry through the zone, a curveball that’s a plus offering due to his ability to locate the pitch, and a changeup that features good deception. The advanced secondary offerings make him equally effective against both lefties and righties, and he attacks hitters without fear… Bowden is credited with a mature, intellectual approach to the game that defies his youth.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8444

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 2:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't get your panties twisted..

I like Bowden unlike others. I’m just saying he doesn’t have the flashy projection, just the solid numbers/stuff/makeup etc.

by Kenan and Kel on Feb 13, 2026 2:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and Im saying

his projection is flashier than people give him credit for…

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 2:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would agree

only because people don’t give him much credit.

I don’t think he profiles as anything more than a #3 and more likely a #4. His minor league numbers are impressive though and I think that’s what led KG to rank him as high as he did. Which was really my original point, this list is primarily about projection but KG does value numbers in some cases.

by Kenan and Kel on Feb 13, 2026 2:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Then youre not really agreeing.

His stuff is better than a number 4 starter. It seems like everyone who doesnt have Ace potential is immediately written off as a 4 starter. James Simmons has the same kind of problem on rankings.

Bowden’s stuff is up there with the guys around him. There has never been any report that its not. People keep trashing his stuff as back of the rotation and its insane. Watch the kid pitch or read his scouting reports. He has very good stuff. His fastball isnt quite front of the rotation. Other than that he has very good stuff and uses it really well despite young ARLs. Alderson is a poor man’s Michael Bowden.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 2:03 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cecil and DeJesus are too low IMO

plus who the heck is Adys Portillo?

by LCT on Feb 13, 2026 2:36 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

IFA signing

was ranked second to Inoa, IIRC

by alskor on Feb 13, 2026 2:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

17 year old Padres pitching prospect

with a big time arm, supposedly in the mid-upper 90’s. Read somewhere that he has good command. Secondary stuff needs work, but the upside is huge.

by toonsterwu on Feb 13, 2026 2:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Definitely not in the "upper 90s"

I’ve seen one report that he has “hit” 95, but most outlets have him sitting 88-92. Since this thread is in his honor, KG’s write up:

The Good: While overshadowed by Inoa’s historic presence, some international scouts felt that Portillo was among the top arms seen in Venezuela over the past five years. His height and thick build just ooze with potential, and he already sits at 89-92 with his fastball while touching 94. He has some feel for a slider and a changeup, and he was not overwhelmed mentally or overmatched physically while facing more advanced hitters in the instructional league.
The Bad: Portillo is still very raw. His mechanics are sound, but he still struggles to throw strikes consistently, especially with his secondary offerings. He’s a project who will require patience as he learns to pitch and adjusts to the lifestyle of professional baseball.

by aCone419 on Feb 13, 2026 3:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I thought I read a report

somewhere that he was fairly consistent in that 94-95 range on the fastball, and could reach back and hit it up a few more notches. I’ll try to see if I can find it this evening.

by toonsterwu on Feb 13, 2026 3:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Michael Taylor 55

versus 121 on community list. I thought the community might have taylor a little low. 55 is higher than i thought. But I like that ranking since I have taylor in fantasy.

Interesting list overall.

by wobatus on Feb 13, 2026 2:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

throw the community list..

out the window…people are amazingly biased on there

by jsmall404 on Feb 13, 2026 3:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's deceptive

because taylor won a list i swear around mid 90s, but there was a run-off where he got 2nd, then i quit paying attention and next thing i look up and he is 121, great science involved here in the voting process

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 13, 2026 6:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Other question

why in all lists is Hosmer over Moustakas?

by LCT on Feb 13, 2026 2:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My guess

is that, and I think I read this somewhere, but most people like Hosmer’s offensive upside to Moustakas.

by toonsterwu on Feb 13, 2026 2:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

because Hosmer's bat is insanely good

i’d take Moose first but it’s really close.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 13, 2026 4:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Escobar

Alcides Escobar ~50 is much more appropriate than putting him 8th, as he was on Mayo’s top 50 list. Hell, one of the BA editors even had Escobar 5th on his own top 50.

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 2:40 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A Potential Perennial Gold Glove SS

Is extremely valuable. I’m not sure I’d put him in the top ten as there are still a lot of questions to be answered about the bat, but top 20 seems right to me.

by Birdfan01 on Feb 13, 2026 4:48 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE

That may be true, but I’m coming at it from a fantasy perspective. Fantasy owners won’t care about Escobar’s slick fielding, only how well he’ll hit… and that is an open question.

by rdf8585 on Feb 13, 2026 7:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair enough

From a fantasy perspective Escobar is not a top 20 guy, probably not even a top 50 guy. But I don’t care about fantasy, and Goldstein’s list doesn’t either. From a real world perspective I think he is top 20.

by Birdfan01 on Feb 13, 2026 8:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This seems puzzling to me.

I know fantasy baseball is huge for a lot of people, but most prospect rankings (and especially this one here) have nothing to do with fantasy baseball.

Escobar is going to be a plus defender at a key defensive position with at least a league average bat. That would put him somewhere in the 4 to 5 WAR territory, which might be superior to a lot of where these other prospects project.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 14, 2026 2:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No love for Freddie

Freeman at #80. Our poll at #46, and John has him as the #18 hitting prospect.
Interesting.

by ByANose on Feb 13, 2026 2:49 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cahill at 25 is a little weird

I think hes on par with all the RHP’s ranked above him

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Feb 13, 2026 3:22 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

from 08 draft

22 smoak
37 wallace
39 hicks

hey beane and kubota, weeks has alot to live up to since every player around him is ranked highly

also any mention in chris carters writeup on his position or defense, apparently A’s seem to think he can end up a corner OF

by Asfan4ever723 on Feb 13, 2026 3:22 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Alderson seems very low to me, and should be higher. His ranking on the community list was too high, and if you were to average them, it’d probably be more accurate. before anyone accuses me of being biased, Bumgarner & Posey could have gone lower.

Others that stand out:

Alvarez seems high (like Posey) but perhaps that’s because i’m a little more skeptical of recent draftees.

Inoa’s ranking seems crazy to me, but there you go, i guess there’s nothing he can’t do at the moment.. If i had the choice between him & a number of those that follow, i’d take the others.

Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!

by GiantFan on Feb 13, 2026 3:44 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also think Porcello’s ranked too high, but that’s another opening a kettle of fish. That’s not to discount him as a prospect, as he’s still a good one, but i find it hard to understand how the isn’t even a slight question mark from this year.

Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!

by GiantFan on Feb 13, 2026 3:49 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

porcello and bumgardner

i just don’t understand how jesus bumgardner is ranked top 5-10 because his stats are so dominant despite the fact that many scouts have always said he will dominate low minors with his fastball and then end up a reliever because his secondary stuff can’t cut it at higher levels….yet porcello puts up simply good, not great stats and doesn’t k hardly anyone, but they listen to the people say he just wasn’t trying to k people and he is the 2nd coming so we need to rank him high

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 15, 2026 11:04 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You need

some more recent scouting info on Bumgarner. The secondary stuff has come a long ways to where it’s actually considered quite good, just inconsistent, which is to be expected by someone his age. Bumgarner moving to the pen is not a legit concern at this point.

You’re really selling what Porcello accomplished last year far too short.

by slurve on Feb 15, 2026 3:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yes on Porcello

I don’t get why guys always get discounted for this. this is like telling LeBron he’s not allowed to dunk for the rest of the year, so he doesn’t and he goes out and dominates anyway… doesn’t that make his accomplishment that much more impressive?

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 3:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If he had only ever dunked against high school kids...

And without dunking he was a top player, but not THE top player, it wouldn’t be fair to rank him at the very top based on what he hadn’t shown as a pro. I think it’s fine to rank Porcello very high, but I don’t think it’s fair to rank him ahead of Bumgarner right now.

by aap212 on Feb 15, 2026 3:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...

Bumgarner is ranked ahead of Porcello, so I don’t understand where you’re going with that point…

by slurve on Feb 15, 2026 4:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

where are these reports

I hear people say what you said about the reports, but i’ve only heard people say “i’ve heard….”

i did hear callis try and dispute my comments, but only saying he was better, but not being specific

i still don’t think porcello deserve QUITE the adolation until he is dominant, he’ll definitely be good, i just don’t know that he’ll be great yet

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 15, 2026 10:57 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Heyward

is a top 5 prospect…I’m sorry

by soxkid on Feb 13, 2026 4:09 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry for what?

Having a marginal difference of opinion with someone who isn’t here?

by aap212 on Feb 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Apology accepted

just dont let it happen again.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 2:00 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Heyward

He just had the exact same season that Colby Rasmus did at the same age at the same level in 2006. And Colby was nowhere near any top ten list the year after. Heyward needs to do this at high A and double A to be a tep ten prospect.

by CoolCat23 on Feb 14, 2026 5:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not to mention

Rasmus plays centerfield, and is likely to stick there, whereas Heyward is going to be a corner outfielder.

http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on Feb 14, 2026 5:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i found his 07 list

J Up was actually ranked 29th. behind such luminaries like: philip humber (26th), brandon erbe, reid brignac, homer bailey, nick adenhart, andrew miller, adam miller, andy laroche, delmon young, jose tabata, luke hochevar, jeff niemann, andrew mccutchen, etc.

and there was no reason for it. there was no reason for anyone to put J upton outside of the top 5 that year.

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2026 4:27 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yup. not a single reason in the world.
Excellent Prospects

2. Justin Upton, CF
DOB: 8/25/87
Draft: 1st round (1st overall), 2005, Virginia HS
What he did in 2006: .263/.343/.413 at Low-A (501 PA)
The Good: More tools than Home Depot: power to all fields, runs like the wind, cannon for an arm. Nobody in the minors has these kinds of tools in terms of their quality and multiplicity, and few come even close. For a player in his first year in center, he showed plus range and good instincts.
The Bad: So then why the hell didn’t he play all that well? Good question. By all accounts, he simply didn’t play hard. Remember the kid who was the smartest one in school, but got Cs because he was bored? It might be like that. That doesn’t work over the long haul, and the team hopes a lesson has been learned.
The Irrelevant: In 15 plate appearances with the bases loaded, he had three walks and five hits, including a pair of grand slams.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An elite player—the kind that gets his number retired.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High. One year since being signed, Upton is still pretty much all potential after one of the more disappointing seasons of any prospect in 2006. He could have a massive earth-shattering year at Visalia, but he can’t do that by playing another season on cruise control. Unlimited potential with no results to judge makes you one of the top prospects in the game. Unlimited potential with one mediocre season under your belt does not. That’s why he’s number two.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5694

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 5:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure

It’s a reason, just not a good one.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 13, 2026 5:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hindsight talking.

so he missed with this one. whoop de fuck. upton wouldn’t have been the first guy to bust because of a questionable commitment.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2026 5:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you don't miss an Upton

how n the hell can you miss an Upton?

thats like predicting Donald Trump won’t ride a limo tomorrow. zero sense.

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2026 6:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

No matter how many sleepers you find, if you mess up the elite, you are going to finish behind.

by rwperu34 on Feb 13, 2026 9:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

like the Pirates

ask the pirates how they feel about taking bullington over BOSSMAN

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 1:13 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

miles?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I normally hate hindsight as well but...

The only way we can validate the opinions of people who do prospect lists is to grade them on their accuracy. It’s one thing to disagree on various players and there to be a universal agreement on some players… but then there’s some folks who are just bonkers. And yet, if the wackos are right, maybe there’s something to it.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 14, 2026 2:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nope

I got into several protracted arguments on this very website when that ranking reared its ugly head. I knew from the beginning that it was insanely idiotic to knock Jupton down that fucking far based on a couple hundred at bats making the transition from HS ball to professional ball. Not to mention the switch from aluminum bats. There were about 4-5 years of scouting reports before that and NONE mentioned anything about a “supposed attitude problem”. It was a completely ridiculous ranking then and it’s only gotten more laughable in the years since.

Just like everyone overreacted to Hanley Ramirez’s poor AA season. Another prospect I got right BTW.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 14, 2026 3:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

being bored is not a reason

if anything, it bumps up the elite in my opinion

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2026 6:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Such a fun game to play

How would your prospect rankings from that year measure up?

What about Keith Law’s or BA’s?

Goldstein (and Sickels) are the best.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 1:59 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Better

Mine would be better because I had Justin Upton #1.

by rwperu34 on Feb 14, 2026 2:43 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yep.

only an idiot downgrades an Upton or anyone with “Griffey/Arod” talent because he “wasn’t trying” in Low-A ball.

what a joke

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 10:29 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Only and idiot should have had Homer Bailey #3

and Reid Brignac #9

You had Lincecum at 21.

This is stupid. Justin Upton had legit question marks. In hindsight obviously he shouldnt have been downgraded that much. Youll have to ask KG why he did it. Shoot him an email. He still has consistently the best or second best lists out there.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 10:41 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

KG

Brignac=11

Homer=4

“idiot” am I? at least I don’t get paid for this…

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 10:42 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, youre just being ridiculous.

I was responding to your comment above:

only an idiot downgrades an Upton

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 10:43 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know

you then implied I was an idiot for ranking Homer 3rd and Briggy 9th
and the guy yr defending has Homer 4th and Briggy 11th

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 10:45 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FAIL

Youre pretty worked up over the Hellickson pick I see

My point here is youre being insane if youre going to discredit a guy for one miss. KG’s prospect list is better than pretty much everyone. There were serious questions about Upton at the time of the list.

By this rationale we should all have Tabata at the top of our draft boards. He has awesome tools. Also, by this rationale we should make Robby Cano an All Star.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 10:48 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no

Tabata is nowhere near Upton.

I’m not at all worked up about Hellickson. that is ridiculous. I am seriously in disbelief at how you can still defend him. aside from Braun and Lincecum, I think my list is honestly better. I did it for free, without his resources, and 3 months earlier than he did. In 3 months, I probably would’ve bumped up Lincecum too… I had hardly any info on him until all the BA/Sickels/etc lists starting coming in.

KG has stupid agendas against players… or he just picks random guys to downgrade so that his list looks “edgy” and he looks good if he guesses right.

look at what he did to Dukes because of his “demeanor/attitude” or just to make some stupid point. He did the same for Upton, and looked like an idiot doing so. just admit the guy isn’t that great for a “professional” and I’m good to go.

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 10:57 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

KG has discussed the Upton missed before

And he’s discussed what he did wrong and the lessons he learned.

by aap212 on Feb 14, 2026 1:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I thought I remember he had.

I don’t think he’s terrible… just not that great. Probably average, but he makes some head-scratchers and often with no reason. I was mostly arguing with alaskor’s :“KG’s prospect list is better than pretty much everyone. There were serious questions about Upton at the time of the list.”

I feel pretty strongly opposed to that.

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 5:21 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

dukes

umm im sorry but if a guy is 1) batshit crazy and 2) does things that can lead to him going to jail isnt that ok to not like someone for that reason?

its not like elijah dukes was mr PC ya know

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and guys like Mantle and Cobb were just model citizens right?

this is a list based on talent/potential for playing the game of baseball. leave yr inclinations/prejudices at the door. that’s how it should be done.

he gets a slight knock for makeup, sure. I had him at #26 because of this. KG either failed to recognize his top 20 talent, or he just puts him at 100 to try and prove a point?

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 2:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dukes
1997

    Sept. 29: Dukes, 13, is arrested on a battery charge, according to Tampa police records. Because he’s a juvenile, no details are available.

1998

    Nov. 21: Dukes is again arrested on a battery charge, but because of his age details aren’t available.

2003

    Dec. 8: Hillsborough sheriff’s deputies are called to Dukes’ home after he fights with NiShea Gilbert. She says he threw a remote control at her. Prosecutors later drop the charges against Dukes.

    Dec. 25: Dukes is pulled over on suspicion of careless driving. When a Tampa police officer approaches, he calls her obscene names, according to an arrest report. The officer yanks him out of the car after he tries to roll up his window and charges him with obstructing an officer without violence. He is allowed to enter a misdemeanor intervention program and charges are dropped.

2004

    Jan. 30: Dukes calls Hillsborough sheriff’s deputies after a fight with Gilbert, accusing her of spraying him with an unknown substance from an aerosol container. He tells deputies he wants to document the incident but doesn’t want to prosecute.

    March 16: Gilbert files for child support from Dukes for their son. A judge orders Dukes to start paying $222.26 per month at a later date. Dukes is already $23,337 in arrears, and the debt is factored into his monthly payments.

    April 26: Gilbert calls Hillsborough deputies and says Dukes is harassing her and making threatening phone calls. No arrest is made.

    April 28: Gilbert files for a protective order, also known as a domestic violence injunction, against Dukes, accusing him of peppering her with telephone calls threatening to kill her. She said she also receives threatening calls from other members of his family. A judge denies her order.

    Sept. 15: Dukes’ ex-girlfriend, Carla Bryant, asks a judge to order a paternity test. It shows Dukes is the father of her baby.

    Oct. 12: Gilbert calls Hillsborough deputies and says Dukes threw a soda can and a candy jar at her. No arrest is made.

    Oct. 15: Gilbert files for another protective order against Dukes.

    Oct. 25: Bryant files for a protective order against Dukes.

    Oct. 28: A judge grants Gilbert’s order and bars Dukes from contacting her for one year.

    Oct. 31: A judge grants Bryant’s order and bars Dukes from contacting her for one year.

2005

    Jan. 18: Dukes quarrels with his sister, Katrina Evans. Evans tells Tampa police he grabbed her by the throat and punched her in the left arm. Dukes is charged with battery. He does not contest the charge and is sentenced to one year of probation.

    Jan. 24: Dukes’ ex-girlfriend, Zanquesha Jefferson, files a request for prosecution with Tampa police. In it, she says Dukes came to her home and choked her. No charges are filed.

    March 10: A paternity test shows Dukes is the father of Shantell Mitchell’s baby, who was born on June 7, 2004.

    June 16: Gilbert gives birth again and adds the baby to her child support claim against Dukes.

    Aug. 8: Dukes is ordered to pay Shantell Mitchell $881.73 per month in child support until $10,871 in retroactive support is paid off. After that, he must pay $734.78 per month.

2006

    Feb. 27: Dukes marries NiShea Gilbert.

    May 1: Gilbert files a petition for divorce, claiming Dukes married her to avoid paying child support. She accuses him of being abusive.

    June 5: Gilbert voluntarily dismisses her petition for divorce.

    Aug. 24: Hillsborough sheriff’s deputies arrest Gilbert after she scratches Dukes in the back during an argument. Charges are later dropped.

    Sept. 20: Dukes and Shantell Mitchell reach a settlement allowing their child to live with him for the six months of the year he is in Tampa. Child support is suspended; Dukes informally agrees to pay for the child’s expenses.

2007

    Jan. 15: Dukes and his passenger, Willie Evans, 23, are arrested during a traffic stop after Tampa police find about 2 grams of marijuana in his car. The case is pending.

    March 8: The child support case between Dukes and Gilbert is settled through mediation.

    April 26: Porcia Reneal Daniels files a paternity suit, which includes a test result showing Dukes is the father of her baby born on July 19, 2006.

    April 30: A Hillsborough County deputy issues Dukes a trespass warning after he shows up at Beth Shields Middle School in Ruskin, where Gilbert teaches. The deputy says Dukes was “very irate.”

    May 1: Gilbert files for a protective order against Dukes.

    May 14: A judge throws out the petition after Gilbert fails to show up for a hearing.

    May 17: Gilbert again files for a protective order.

    May 23: The St. Petersburg Times reports allegations by Gilbert that Dukes threatened to kill her and their children.

    May 29: Dukes apologizes to “family, teammates, the fans and the organization” for causing a distraction.

    May 30: Gilbert gets a one-year protective order and says she has filed for divorce.

    June 13: The Times reports that a teen who lived in the foster care of a relative Dukes told police the Rays outfielder got her pregnant. Detectives believe the sex was consensual and no crime was committed, but according to the police report the incident has prompted a review of the foster home.

    June 19: Dukes calls a Tampa radio station to defend himself and his family and make further accusations against Gilbert. Rays officials acknowledge they are frustrated over the continued distractions.

    June 22: The troubled outfielder is optioned to the minor leagues and placed on the temporary inactive list.

that deserves a hell of a lot more than “slight knock” — its never been a question of talent with him, everyone knows that. its a question of what the hell is he going to do off the field to end his career. the nationals have hired a person to follow him around and make sure he doesnt get in trouble. do you think pacman jones should be on the list of “top 20” CB in football just because he has the talent?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 2:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

most of that was bollocks

divorce, child support, weed, sex, and throwing soda cans… the violent threats were all thrown out if I remember correctly or charges were dropped because they were ridiculous.

Adam Jones is involved with shootings, violence, alcoholism, cocaine = felonies. all of this is recent too.

Dukes was fine all of 2008.

these 2 are not comparable

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 3:03 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mantle and Cobb compared to Dukes?

Jeff Kent was more like Mantle or Cobb. Dukes is a guy with a big chance of ending up in jail.

by aap212 on Feb 15, 2026 3:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"big chance"?

i disagree. he was involved with really stupid people, and he grew up in that environment. if anyone should be jailed, its his mom.

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 4:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair enough

But at the same time, he has a history of criminal behavior and of not being able to control his temper. That’s different, and more jeopardizing to a career, than having a drinking problem that doesn’t keep you from performing at a high level (Mantle) or being a prick whose racist attitudes and violent techniques on the field are within the realm of acceptable behavior in your era (Cobb).

by aap212 on Feb 15, 2026 4:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

my bad

i wasn’t trying to imply that they are directly related. just giving examples of guys who succeeded despite not being “PC”, which is the term knockout used that I was replying to.

though on the other hand, i kind of see a bad temper on a lower level compared to being an alcoholic and and a racist prick. All of Dukes’ legal troubles really seem to be minor stuff that was the result of growing up with no discipline/direction… hell, even his temper. If you look at the list knockout posted, it was stemming back to when Dukes was 13, and most of it was simple battery or what normal people would call “arguing”… but because he was likely a big ol boy (and black), its easy to point a finger at him… we all know he’s not that intelligent and he obviously lacked a strong male guidance growing up… so he got involved with the wrong females playing all sorts of “woe is me” and pregnancy cards. Now that he is playing ball full-time in MLB, have we heard anything bad form him?

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 4:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My point was...

Ty Cobb was probably a worse person than Dukes, but Dukes’ problems are more likely to get him booted off a team or out of baseball than Mantle or Cobb’s problems. The fact that Tampa knew exactly how talented he was, but really had to trade him, says a lot. And the fact that it’s been a year since the last really bad thing happened isn’t that comforting.

by aap212 on Feb 15, 2026 4:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm no fan of Dukes, but...

Tampa also let another troubled player go and that has worked out well. I agree, Dukes scares the shit out of me as far as his chances of behaving well enough to stick, but I’ve softened on that a bit.

by slurve on Feb 15, 2026 5:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

they did that for him

to get him away from the people in his past.

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 5:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ty Cobb once killed a guy.

Until Dukes does that, I wont compare the two.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Feb 15, 2026 5:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

eh?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 1:17 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are you kidding me?

Lets take another look at what Saint Elijah left on his wife’s voice mail:

“Hey, dawg. It’s on, dawg. You dead, dawg. I ain’t even bulls——-. Your kids too, dawg. It don’t even matter to me who is in the car with you. N—–, all I know is, n—–, when I see your m—–f——- a– riding, dawg, it’s on. As a matter of fact, I’m coming to your m—–f—— house.”

He threatened to kill her multiple times and sent here a photo message of a handgun on her cell phone. He showed up at her work ( a school) and threatened her and had to be restrained by sheriffs.

These werent when he was a teenager either, these were when he was in the majors for Tampa in April and May of 07

The guy is human garbage.

by alskor on Feb 15, 2026 5:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thats not a big problem though

evidently according to some ppl on here

i mean, come on…

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 5:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i said he wasn't intelligent

he needed to get away from there, absolutely.

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 5:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm a little confused

Did he put him at #2 or #21?#2 seems entirely reasonable to me, depending on who was first

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 14, 2026 7:04 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The History

After a lackluster half season in Low-A where J.Upton was on cruise control, KG knocked him down to #21 on the next year’s top100 (the #2 above is likely from the team list). Then Upton went out and tore through the minors to debut in the Majors as a Teenager.

KG has been on record numerous times that he should not have let that one sample of data override all the continued glowing scouting reports he was getting about Upton’s talent level (aka Generational Talent on the level of A-Rod, Griffey, etc).

by Ophidian on Feb 15, 2026 3:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ohh

That makes much more sense

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 15, 2026 3:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

umm are you serious?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

always

as soon as J Up was signed, he was a top 5 prospect. you don’t drop him 22 spots for not going all-out in low a.

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 2:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so you support alvarez being a top 5 guy even though he held out, etc?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 2:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

what does Alvarez have to do with this?

was Alvarez ever called the next Arod in high school? Does Alavarez have a brother named BOSSMAN?

I’m not a fan of Alvarez… I don’t see how he compares to J Up… or what holding out has to do with our convo? elaborate?

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 3:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brother is named Bossman Jr.

And what does that have to do anything? B.J. is called Bossman Jr. because their father’s nickname was Bossman. And their father isn’t in Cooperstown.

by aap212 on Feb 15, 2026 3:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brother...

What does BJ have to do with Justin’s ranking? Go through history and find me sets of brothers in basketball, football, or baseball who were both great players. Usually what happens is that one is great and the other ends up being a league average player. Check out DiMaggio, Griffey, Ripken, Canseco, etc. Should Dom, Craig, Billy, and Ozzie have been ranked higher because of Joe, Ken Jr, Cal, and Jose?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 15, 2026 4:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Uptons have superior genes

I was mostly joking with that… I guess I forgot my love for BOSSMAN is largely unknown on this site.

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 4:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Superior genes?

So now BJ Upton is a better player than DiMaggio, Griffey, and Ripken, all of whom are HOF players? Having bromantic feelings for a player is one thing, but taking that man-crush a little far aren’t you?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 15, 2026 5:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I do think they will be the best brother combo ever

and BOSSMAN is more athletic than the guys you listed, yes. and J Up is more athletic than all their brothers, yes.

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 5:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

genes don't determine how well a guy plays a game

i don’t think…. they do play a role in his body/abilities tho. that’s what i am referring to.

Uptons do win a 3 legged-race with the DiMaggios, Griffeys, and Ripkens as their competitors, yes.

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 5:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

3-legged race...

actually I think the Griffeys win that race. Craig was a speedster and Ken Jr had some wheels until those leg injuries when he left to Cinci. I think they would do better than BJ who has great speed and Justin who may not (only 1 for 5 in SB attempts last season?).

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 16, 2026 12:55 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

For the record

Justin is faster than BJ. He doesn’t have a good first step, but in a 100 yard dash would win.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Feb 16, 2026 12:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Staal, Alomars, Mannings

Eric, Marc, Jordan, and Jared Staal … 3 are already in the NHL the last one will be there in a few years… Alomar’s were good Sandy, Roberto, and Sandy Jr., and Eli and Peyton both have Super Bowls rings and Archie wasn’t too bad himself

by Pelferized on Feb 16, 2026 1:10 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hockey doesn't count...

I am only counting real sports. I forgot about the Alomars though. I thought of the Mannings when I wrote that though. But sports history still has a lot more siblings that never did crap than ones who were just as good as their brother.

The point is, just because one brother is a good or great player doesn’t mean the other will be. I mean, if that was the case, wouldn’t some NFL Team be trying to sign Cooper Manning?

And stil, I doubt either Upton will ever be as good as Griffey is/was. You could argue that Griffey is one of the best players in baseball history. Three of the players above him on the all-time HR list are likely steroid users, which means only three people above him did it without juicing. Griffey was voted the best player in the 1990’s for a reason. Very few players in history can claim to be the best player in a specific decade.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 16, 2026 8:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Alous

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 16, 2026 8:34 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hockey's not a real sport?

Hopefully that was tongue-in-cheek as hockey is arguably the most physically demanding sport on the planet, requires agility, hand/eye coordination, strategy, teamwork…

by slurve on Feb 16, 2026 11:49 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Venus and Serena?

Tennis might be more demanding than all of them.

by aap212 on Feb 16, 2026 12:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1 for the tennis shout out!

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 16, 2026 1:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When's the last time

you saw a tennis player with missing teeth and stitches on their face?

by slurve on Feb 16, 2026 5:21 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Physical abuse vs. Physically demanding

Not that you are wrong with your point, but to play four hour singles matches in the heat (look at what happened in Australia) is nothing to scoff at. Not to mention often in these tournaments you are playing every other day.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 16, 2026 6:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...

I’ve played (play) both - hockey takes more out of me personally.

by slurve on Feb 16, 2026 7:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True.

I’ve played both as well, I’d say it depend on the caliber you compete at. At the professional level I don’t think its close, likewise with the amateur(college,age groups) level. But at the non-competitive level, Hockey is by far more competitive because of the skating.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 16, 2026 11:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i think a lot of you are comparison failing.

was billy ripken a #1 draft pick? Griffey’s brother ever compared to Griffey?

It has been established that Justin and BOSSMAN are legit… in the mold of Williams sisters and Manning bros. why is everyone acting like they’re not?

by daveh33 on Feb 16, 2026 2:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

cooper manning

was considered the best HS player of the 3 of the brothers fwiw

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 2:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Didn't he get hurt or something?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 16, 2026 2:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yea

narrow spinal column iirc

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 3:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exaactly my point

And Daveh33, yes Craig was compared to Ken. Their father said Craig was the better athlete of the two. Of course that didn’t make him the better baseball player.

And no one is saying the Uptons aren’t legit players. But ranking one high on a prospect list because his brother is a major leaguer is failed logic. He may turn out to be a good baseball player and he may not, but his brother has very little to do with that.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 16, 2026 3:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kala is the next Kila!!!!!!!!11!

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 16, 2026 3:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

my point is that J Up was rated very highly anyway

the brother thing was a joke. but it had some truth to it. a lot of people were down on BOSSMAN for the same reasons… “Oh, he makes so many mental mistakes, etc etc” , and then when he practiced his defense and lacked on offense for a little bit, everyone thought he had failed. if you can’t see that Justin Upton is talented from just watching him bat once, then like KG, you shouldn’t be prospecting. this thread is about KG’s lists… and was and still is that there is no sane reason for J Up to be dropped 25+ spots for appearing to coast through low-A ball.

as for Craig Griffey, correct me if I’m wrong, but being the athlete that his brother was still doesn’t correlate with the Uptons. they were both the top high school ballplayers in their respective drafts.

by daveh33 on Feb 16, 2026 5:04 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1 on Hockey

LOL, spoken like a true American sports fan

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 16, 2026 9:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

alvarez

seen as a “once in a generation talent”, great hitter, etc

but had zero stats before the rankings this year vs uptons not good stats and being ranked low

the question is how much do stats matter, how much do scouting reports matter.

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 5:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you need a balance

but when a guy is obviously a stud, you cut him some slack if he’s bored with the competition.

I don’t think Alvarez is that great

by daveh33 on Feb 15, 2026 5:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"once in a generation talent"??

I dont think anyone has described him that way. He could be an all star but he isnt gonna be Arod or Griffey Junoir

by jsmall404 on Feb 15, 2026 10:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bryan Smith may have said "generational talent"

But once in a generation talent is pretty far to go. Would anyone refer to Teixeira that way? And would anyone be disappointed if Alvarez has the exact same career path as Teixeira performance-wise?

by aap212 on Feb 16, 2026 1:10 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

KG called him that too IIRC

after freshman/soph year

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 1:18 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

right

Once in a generation talent implies a sure fire hall of famer. I like Alvarez as much as the next guy but lets be honest here…

by jsmall404 on Feb 16, 2026 3:48 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

im just saying what other ppl said about him

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 3:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

here's KG's list for comparison

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5892

he wins for Lincecum and Braun. I’ll give him that. I didn’t know much about Lincecum. and Braun is my biggest miss in the years I’ve been making lists.

I win with Votto, Loney, Upton, Dukes. its interesting.

we both had Delmon, Gordon, and bailey top 5. his other 2 were Phil Hughes and brandon wood.
my other 2 were J Up and Maybin.

I had Garza higher.

by daveh33 on Feb 14, 2026 10:42 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

1B

My gripes would be that he has Morrison and Freeman too low, but I know KG has said he has a bias against 1B prospects because they have to hit a ton and there are no fallback positions. But that makes it somewhat surprising that he has Anderson, Smoak, Hosmer and Alonso pretty high - not to mention Matt LaPorta and Chris Carter.

I have to think Morrison > Alonso as a prospect.

Also Morrison > Chris Carter.

by FI2 on Feb 13, 2026 4:51 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Goldstein's list 10X better than our Communitys

Twins OF’s Revere and Hicks were 36, and 39 on KG

Here Revere was 54, and Hicks 73?

thats a big difference…

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 13, 2026 5:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

Amen.

He has a few toolsy guys he’s in love with, but its still better than our list, if for no other reason than the placement of Alderson.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 1:58 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah,

He’s only 54 spots lower then Smoak…

lol

"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.

by Kinslerhomer on Feb 13, 2026 8:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Astros haters?

Didn’t know such a creature existed on this planet.

by guru4u on Feb 13, 2026 8:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ha!

Youre really celebrating where Castro was rated as a “victory?”

Do you work for Ed Wade… or are you Ed Wade…?

Everyone who got drafted around him is much, much higher. Castro was a pretty horrendous pick at the time and looks just as bad now.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 1:57 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

Desperate times in Houston these days…

by slurve on Feb 14, 2026 5:35 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hey...

I cannot be picky. I will gladly take any Astros prospect being listed among the top 100 a victory. I think Castro is a much better prospect than most give him credit for, above-average offensive skills, and above-average defensive skills is very, very good.

by byronlhsdrmr on Feb 14, 2026 4:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

castro wasnt that bad of a pick in principle

but th eproblem was that they drafted for need not BPA

and yes, the distance btwn castro and the next C on the board was hugeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

castro is just not great

i mean he’ll probably make the majors, whoopy

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 15, 2026 11:10 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thoughts

A good list, as usual, from KG.

I like that STubbs, Reddick, Lambo and Allen made the list. All 4 I think are being underrated here.

He has Stanton and Dominguez much higher than we do. He evidently doesnt think the hitter-friendly nature of Greensboro misrepresents their talent.

Wasnt bothered too much by Halman’s K’s, putting him 35 spots above where we had him.

I, too, thought we had Alderson and M. Ramirez way too high. Ditto for Holland and others.

Quite a few in our top 100 that arent in his. Notably:
- M. Ramirez
- Hellickson
- Teagarden
- Triunfel
- Blanks
- Marrero

Missing from our list so far:
- Rosario (not in pool)
- Detwiler
- Kulbacki
- Schlereth (not in pool)
- Erbe
- B Allen (not in pool)
- Portillo (not in pool)

Also, his 5-star and 4-star guys from his Team Top 11’s generally make up his top 100, so there were only 2 surprises in that regard: Daryl Jones and Ceda were both 4-stars but werent in the top 100, so he probably downgraded them a bit.

by rhd on Feb 13, 2026 9:11 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This list sucks in a few spots

It’s another situtation where you’ve got to read what he says about the players to gain anything. In that case you gain a lot.

Overall, I’d say he falls for and overrates the young pitching. This is a common gaffe. There is no way Madison Bumgarner is the #3 prospect in all of baseball and no way 4 of the top 7 are pitchers. The attrition is too high which offsets a bunch of the reward.

He undervalues the “Gold Glove” prospects at SS. He had a nice little writeup on Escobar the other day, which gave me some hope. Then he ranks Escobar in the 50s? Goldstein has always had it out for Andrus. It’s like he picked his hype guy to bet against and constantly looks for facts to support his case. His main argument is the “lack of performance”. Well, I’ve got news for you, KG. Andrus performance at age 19 was better than any AS/MVP SS in the last 20 years except for A-Rod and Reyes! Andrus is one of those guys that you can’t mess up. Just put him somwehere between #3 and #15 and you’re list will be OK. #73 is a complete disaster.

 

by rwperu34 on Feb 13, 2026 10:06 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So, basically, what you're saying is

your subjective biases>>>>>>his subjective biases. If he values upside and young pitching more than you or I do, that doesn’t mean it’s a gaffe. It’s a preference.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 13, 2026 11:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Subjective Bias

Is the fact that young pitcers get hurt more than young hitters some kind of subjective bias? Is the fact that position players have a higher ultimate ceiling than pitchers a subjective bias? I guess if those things are subjective, then my biases are >>>> than his.

by rwperu34 on Feb 14, 2026 12:46 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But how much weight you give

to that attrition IS subjective. He obviously doesn’t give as much as you do. I’m not saying he’s right and you’re wrong, but you can’t call his opinion a gaffe.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 14, 2026 9:37 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not really

Past track record can be measured. Elite hitting prospects have a much better hit rate than elite pitching prospects (and conversely “fringe” pitchers have a much higher hit rate than fringe hitters).

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 14, 2026 1:00 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, duh

I’m not disputing that, but how much emphasis someone gives that fact in their rankings varies from person to person.

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by t ball on Feb 14, 2026 9:37 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't argue with God

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Feb 14, 2026 11:16 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   4 recs

Winner, winner...

chicken dinner. Post of the new year… so far.

by slurve on Feb 14, 2026 11:40 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

rec

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 12:57 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't understand this reply

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 14, 2026 7:49 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't understand why.

If Goldstein feels the talent warrants the ranking why should he (or anyone else who feels the same way) lower the ranking for any particular player just because attrition is greater for pitchers overall? Just because you say so? There are too many people here who feel that opinions other than theirs are not just different but wrong.

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by t ball on Feb 15, 2026 6:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ignoring attrition rate is just as irresponsible.

I have no problem with being in awe of someone’s talent (which seems to be Goldstein’s main problem here with Inoa), but don’t ignore the risks just because they haven’t presented themselves yet. He’s nitpicking other prospects based on what he feels to be risks, but is ignoring it here.

If he’d have put Inoa in the middle areas, 40s to 50s, nobody would be saying anything. But thrusting him up so far, talent or no talent, and ignoring the risks, is questionable judgment.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 15, 2026 11:28 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

For clarification

I was just using Inoa as an example.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 15, 2026 11:29 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Value

What we are trying to rank is future value of a player. There are several ways to go about that, but in any, production lost due to injury is a bad thing. With pitchers, not only do you have to worry about their performance translating to the big leagues (same as hitters), you’ve got to worry about their health (more than hitters). That beats down their value significantly compared to position players. If you ignore the attrition rate and only rank based on “talent”, you will consistantly end up overvaluing pitchers and undervaluing position players. That is a common gaffe amongst prospecters. John’s system is best in this regard.

by rwperu34 on Feb 16, 2026 2:03 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with all of that

about value and attrition, but I don’t think it’s necessary to rank your prospects that way. I think you can rank prospects by ceiling/likelihood of reaching it, etc. while knowing that the pitchers on the list have a greater risk of injury and dl time.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 16, 2026 11:25 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He undervalues the "Gold Glove" prospects at SS. He had a nice little writeup on Escobar the other day, which gave me some hope. Then he ranks Escobar in the 50s? Goldstein has always had it out for Andrus. It’s like he picked his hype guy to bet against and constantly looks for facts to support his case. His main argument is the "lack of performance". Well, I’ve got news for you, KG. Andrus performance at age 19 was better than any AS/MVP SS in the last 20 years except for A-Rod and Reyes! Andrus is one of those guys that you can’t mess up. Just put him somwehere between #3 and #15 and you’re list will be OK. #73 is a complete disaster.

Absolutely not.

His issue is that Andrus hits for absolutely no power, so how high can his ceiling be? Its a valid point. He lacks secondary skills and that limits his ceiling… He’s still a really good bet to be a very good SS…. great defense, good AVG, decent OBP skills and great speed… but he doesnt look like he’s ever going to hit for extra bases(both scouting and stat wise). So that’s a pretty big mark against him.

Before you think Im biased, let me say I would definitely have him higher… and if you scroll down on that page Im the guy who questioned Brignac over Andrus.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 1:55 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Power

Plus defenders at short that steal 40+ bases don’t need to develop much power to be above average players. If Andrus can develop 10 HR power, he’ll likely be a star, possibly a superstar. If he develops 15 HR power, he’s a superstar.

KG’s issue with Andrus is always performance, not ceiling. For comparison’s sake, if you put LaPorta at the one position he is average defensively, DH, and assume Andrus is average defensively, their performance was nearly identical. LaPorta is four years older than Andrus! I know Andrus isn’t going to hit 40 HR, but is he any less likely to hit 10 than LaPorta 40? Because at those numbers, their value is about equal.

If you assume both are average defensively, Travis Snider was less than 0.1 wins better than Andrus in 2008 despite being six months older. As you can see, it doesn’t take too much defensive prowess for Andrus to have had a much better year than Snider. Which one has the higher ceiling? That’s arguable, and I"m being subjective when I say Andrus. Regardless, given the tools and what they’ve shown, it’s not going to be a big difference one way or the other.

Other players with significant (300+ AB) time at AA that were within 12 months age of Andrus were F-Mart in CF, about the same production. Jose Tabata in RF was 1.5 wins behind.

by rwperu34 on Feb 14, 2026 2:40 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FMart… Tabata… they project for much more power, even relatively than Andrus. Andrus has never slugged .400 at any stop and yes, I would say the chances of him hitting for 10 HRs in a season is less than LaPorta hitting 40. I think youre understating how little power Andrus actually has. His career MiLB line is: .275/.343/.361. How would that translate to the MLB level? Not well. Yes, ARL is a huge factor, but how much credit can we give him for it here? Should we assume he would slug much more than that? Scouting reports say no.

Andrus is basically a slap hitter. His speed and patience will help him get on base at a decent clip, but the fact is he’s going to hit for a Cezar Izturis-like very empty AVG.

DESPITE THESE FAULTS HE’S STILL A TOP 70 PROSPECT FOR KG - which shows you how well he does everything else and how much of a “sure thing” he is. Yet, his ceiling and upside really arent that great and his placement on that list was, I feel, an accurate representation of that.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 10:57 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ceiling

We obviously differ on the ceiling of Andrus. The Rangers write up will be interesting, because KG’s main complaint on Andrus has always been performance, not ceiling.

by rwperu34 on Feb 16, 2026 1:52 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can you find me a quote on that?

B/c Im a BP subscriber and he has always said the issue was “No secondary skills.”

Joey Matschulat (Tyler, TX): Feeling any better about Elvis Andrus after his steady second half?

Kevin Goldstein: Another guy I’m not as high on as others. Decent average, great speed, no other secondary skills, good defense. He’s almost Royce Clayton for me, but I also think Royce Clayton is underrated.
Q: Elvis Andrus: Great shortstop prospect or greatest shortstop prospect?

- Trip Somers

Goldstein: Neither. None of the above. I pick C. I’m a guy who just isn’t an Andrus believer, and there’s a reason for that. Offensively, he’s a guy without secondary skills. He doesn’t work the count very well and he doesn’t have any power. He’s a very good defensive shortstop, but he’s not a crazy great defensive shortstop; he’s not a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, he’s a really good shortstop. I feel the guy is going to hit .280 or .290 and steal some bases, but at the same time he’s going to draw 30 walks and hit four home runs for you. He’s an everyday shortstop that is going to hit seventh for you. That’s not an All-Star, that’s a regular shortstop. I mean, what has he really done? He’s not just going to find it. It’s not there to find.
Not Going Well at the Minor League Level: Other than the catching, the Rangers don’t have much up-the-middle talent, as their two best non-catching prospects at those four positions—shortstop Elvis Andrus and center fielder Julio Borbon—are generally overrated speedsters without secondary skills.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 2:11 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its pretty clear his issue is "ceiling" not performance, if you ask me.

The middle quote is an excellent illustration of what holds Andrus back.

To be fair, I really like his chances of becoming that major leaguer KG describes - and that’s a fairly good major leaguer and valuable.

When you say this:

If Andrus can develop 10 HR power, he’ll likely be a star, possibly a superstar. If he develops 15 HR power, he’s a superstar.

I have to strongly disagree. There is basically no chance of Andrus becoming a star or superstar quality player IMO. He will never walk enough or hit for power enough. He hits for a nice AVG, but nothing special. He’s a good defender, but nothing special.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 2:18 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We've Been Here Before

In those quotes, for the most part, he basically rips ANdrus performance, then says because he hasn’t performed, he won’t. THe one explicit mention of what he can become rather than what he is is “nothing to find”. Everything else is looking at what he is and what he’s done.

"Offensively, he’s a guy without secondary skills. "

“I mean, what has he really done?”

These sound like the arguments against Jose Reyes after his age 22 season down to the proverbial t. This is the discussion we will likely be having in two years;

KG-I told you so. Andrus doesn’t have any secondary skills.
Rangers Homer-But he’s so electric. You have to see him play to appriciate him.
KG-Electric players who walk 30 times a year are overrated.
RW-Guys, he’s only 21 and got tools out the wazzou. Why don’t we give him a few years and see what kind of secondary skills he develops?

I’m not going to hear someone say a 19 year old is doomed to draw 30 walks a year. Walks is a stat that can and should get better as you get older. You mean he doesn’t work the count well? At age 19? In AA? I can’t believe that!

On the power front, I semi-agree that he’s not a great prospect there. But again, he hit 4 HR in AA at age 19. That does not speak of a guy who’s going to hit 0 in the Show. Even if his translated HR total were 2, are you telling me this guy absolutely can’t increase his power by 8 HR/yr over the next 6 years?

Defensively, his range is great. He makes a lot of errors. That’s to be expected from a 19 year old and is another stat that can improve significantly over time. Range is a young player skill and errors is an old player skill. When you’re 19, it’s ok to lack old player skills if you have an abundance of young player skills. Andrus is good defensively now, but will likely be great in the future.

by rwperu34 on Feb 16, 2026 7:09 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmmm?

You’re right that it’s possible that he will, like Reyes, add power and walk more. KG apparently doesn’t think that will happen. He may be wrong, but I don’t see how you can deny that this is his opinion.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 16, 2026 10:41 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In those quotes, for the most part, he basically rips ANdrus performance, then says because he hasn’t performed, he won’t. THe one explicit mention of what he can become rather than what he is is "nothing to find". Everything else is looking at what he is and what he’s done.

No he doesnt. Youre reading what you want to read between the lines. What he says is the guy has no secondary skills and that scouting wise there is no reason to believe he ever will. This isnt about performance. There is no reason to believe Andrus will improve much in power or patience over time based on his stat profile OR his scouting.

He’s not just going to find it. It’s not there to find.

THAT is what KG thinks. Youre just interpreting his questioning of Andrus lack of secondary skills as a problem with his performance to date and KG explicitly states that is not the case in the quote above.

Jose Reyes is pretty special, and still - he lacks some secondary skils. There were scouting reasons and stat reasons to think Jose Reyes would hit for power even though he hadnt. Andrus doesnt give us those same reasons. His swing doesnt generate backspin like Reyes did. Reyes slugged .423 in his minor league career - which isnt good. Andrus slugged .361 to date - which is a slap hitter.

On the power front, I semi-agree that he’s not a great prospect there. But again, he hit 4 HR in AA at age 19. That does not speak of a guy who’s going to hit 0 in the Show. Even if his translated HR total were 2, are you telling me this guy absolutely can’t increase his power by 8 HR/yr over the next 6 years?

No one is saying “absolutely” anything. What KG is saying is the odds are stacked against it. This is one tool he just doesnt have out the wazzou.

FYI if you correct his career numbers for park and luck his SLG goes down to .351 and his SLG in 08 goes down to .346. His swing just doesnt generate power. Some guys, like Reyes, dont understand what pitches to drive for power and dont know how to use the power they have. Andrus just doesnt have that type of swing and has hit for as little power as you’l see in the minors.

I’m not going to hear someone say a 19 year old is doomed to draw 30 walks a year. Walks is a stat that can and should get better as you get older. You mean he doesn’t work the count well? At age 19? In AA? I can’t believe that!

Believe it.

Patience does improve as you age, but Andrus is starting from a pretty low base to begin with - but most importantly, MLB pitchers arent afraid to throw strikes to guys with that little power.

As I said, I was the one who in the comments below the Top 100 expressed a problem with Andrus being below Brignac. I like Andrus better than KG, definitely. I do think he’ll walk more than 30 times a year, but I dont think its realistic to expect him to develop into a patient hitter. Yes, players do tend to become more patient hitter as they age - but I think youre overstating the effect. A guy who walks 7% of the time isnt going to become a guy who walks 15% of the time… The gains are typically pretty marginal.

Defensively, his range is great. He makes a lot of errors. That’s to be expected from a 19 year old and is another stat that can improve significantly over time. Range is a young player skill and errors is an old player skill. When you’re 19, it’s ok to lack old player skills if you have an abundance of young player skills. Andrus is good defensively now, but will likely be great in the future.

So, basically, your entire argument is that he should get better at everything he does over the next few years and he’s only 19 and pretty good at a lot of things right now?

I dont think there is statistical or scouting evidence for this. I think its just wishful thinking.

His career translated stats are .264/.332/.351, fwiw. I see a pretty good player here - and a nearly sure bet to reach MLB as a pretty good player and soon. BUT I totally see what KG is saying… Andrus’s power is pretty nonexistant. He will hit for a decent AVG, especially for a SS. He’s a patient hitter but not overly so and his lack of power will be a detriment to his patience at the MLB level. He’s a good defensive SS but nothing spectacular. He’s got great speed. I see an above average SS at the MLB level - and a fun one to watch. That’s a great thing to have in your system. I just dont see him becoming a whole lot more than he is right now, despite his age and tools.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 1:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You've Convinced Me

I might have Andrus overrated by saying he should be between #3-#15. You could rank him as low as #20 and not be insane.

You know what else this reminds me of? In the 2007-2008 offseason when there were people who would spill their keyboard to fight against the obvious fact that Carlos Gomez was a top 20 prospect.

by rwperu34 on Feb 16, 2026 4:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Power Potential and Defense

First, I think Gomez has significantly more power potential that Andrus, at 6-4 and that body I don’t think that is arguable. What is similar, is that his lack of plate discipline has doomed him as a hitter(at least one that projects to be above average). He is completely lost out there.

Defensively, I wouldn’t compare Andrus and Gomez just yet. Gomez was highest rated center fielder last season. I don’t think Andrus is at that yet. While, he could end up being a great defender, he isn’t that yet.

I have been on the anti-Andrus bandwagon for quite sometime, and I have to agree 100% with everything Alskor has said. I couldn’t justify putting him in the top 50 at this point.

At this point, this season, he is barely over replacement level, IMHO.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 16, 2026 6:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ranger fan here

completely fine with Andrus not being in the top 50. He should be in the top 100, but maybe not top 50 unless he adds a little pop in his bat. He’ll lose his prospect status before that happens though, if it happens.

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by t ball on Feb 16, 2026 9:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They may leave him in AAA a few weeks

for polishing and (mostly) service time issues, like Tampa did with Longoria last year.

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by t ball on Feb 17, 2026 12:07 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pedigree

I agree. I don’t think its fair that a player with his pedigree be complete discounted (not that he has been). The fact that a player like Iona, who hasn’t throw a single pitch, is at 20 on this list is just complete rhetoric IMO (haven’t read goldstein’s points though). You need some professional sample size.

Andrus isn’t small

He could really fill out and hit the ball. But with that said, currently he will really need to be the below to be a superstar that some have said he will be.
Hit: 65
Power: 40
Arm: 70
Glove: 70
Run: 70

Personally, his hit could be that high, but I don’t see his power getting there. And the defensive stuff is currently hard to quantify.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Feb 16, 2026 11:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With everything else he is

I’ll still be quite happy with him with low power. If he is a strong defensive SS he’ll be an asset to the Rangers young pitching coming up. He’ll hit enough to be an everyday player, any power would be a bonus.

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by t ball on Feb 17, 2026 12:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's definitely a valuable player

The question is if he could be an outstanding player

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 17, 2026 11:19 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He is concistent..Ill give him that...
bateman19 (boston ma): Kevin, you placed Elvis Andrus lower than I think I’ve seen him anywhere else. Do you think he will struggle in his first year in the majors, or do you doubt he will ever be an above average major league shortstop?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d bet a ton of him struggling is THIS year he gets the big league shortstop job. I think he can be a plus defender who hits for average and runs well, but a lack of power or on-base skills keep him towards the bottom of the order.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=572

by laxtonto on Feb 16, 2026 5:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd basically agree with that

I don’t think it’s any insult whatsoever to rank Andrus where he did.

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by t ball on Feb 14, 2026 9:38 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmmm....

Ever heard of something called a “cycle”? For reference, it means that we tend to see different trends,but over time things tend to even out. So, for this example, we may just see a TON of elite-level pitchers in the minors right now, while the bats are a bit down. That would explain 4 out of the top 7 rankings being pitchers.

It’s like the SS argument we were having around #40 of the community list - Just because we don’t have 3 or 4 SS’s in our top 40 (because past lists typically have that many) doesn’t mean the list is wrong. It could just mean that the talent at SS is in a down cycle.

by guru4u on Feb 15, 2026 6:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cycle

Sure. In the “up” cycle, pitchers might get 4 of the top 20. In the down cycle, it will be two. Funny thing is, this is actually a somewhat down year for pitching. There are less big league ready studs than normal, and that’s usually what it takes to be an elite prospect as a pitcher. It could have easily been a down year for hitting too, but a few top prospects that were expected to lose eligibility didn’t and 2008 was also a huge draft for top flight college hitting talent.

by rwperu34 on Feb 16, 2026 1:55 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why are you assuming that pitchers should be considered as only one position?

First of all, pitchers are at least 6 (5 starters and 1 closer) of the 14 most important positions (DH not included), making them deserving of closer to half the spots (3/7ths to be exact). There’s also a reasonable argument that an individual starter is more important than an individual position player. I don’t know if it’s true, but I certainly think that a rough parity between hitters and pitchers is sensible

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 16, 2026 10:56 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Attrition

The same number of pitchers and hitters will breakout and be studs, but the pitchers will lose a significant chunk of value to injury. Position players tend to be about 0.5 to 1.0 wins better across the board vs pitchers.

by rwperu34 on Feb 16, 2026 1:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Anti-hype

He did this same type of thing with, if I remember correctly, Ian Stewart.

Once he made up his mind that he was overhyped nothing that he never again managed to make a comment about him that wasn’t pessimistic or heavily qualified in one way or another.

by MADness on Feb 15, 2026 7:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Totally agree on Andrus

I think Andrus was the biggest miss by KG. I don’t know what he expects from a 19 year old at AA?!?!

First of all, he got off to a slow start but was hitting great by the end of the year. I couldn’t find any splits, but his performance improved as the year went on. I’m pretty confident that he hit well over .300 in the 2nd half. Yes, he has below average power right now - this is true for pretty much all 19 year old shortstops. As another commenter pointed out, Andrus does not have a small frame, so there’s a pretty decent chance he develops 10-15 HR power.

His glove at SS is good, borderline great. At least it is major league quality right now. And he was AGE 19! Bottom line - I don’t think KG gives enough weight to Andrus’ performance at age 19. If the same performance was done by a 22 year old in AA, it would be nothing special, but by a 19 year old, it is pretty darn good. I’d rank him somewhere between 15 and 24 on the list. He’d be clearly above guys like McCutchen and Dominguez IMO. Guys like Moustakas, Smoak, Tillman, etc. are the guys he belongs with.

by BaseballBrain on Feb 17, 2026 9:16 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

By month

April: ..260/.302/.310
May: .278/.340/.322
June: .309/.380/.397
July: .330/.382/.423
Aug: .303/.351/.393

by aCone419 on Feb 17, 2026 9:44 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Over the course of that year,

his walk rate was roughly identical (excepting a spike in June), and his ISOP went up from .040 to .090, never especially good. Considering his performance in the previous years was closer to .090, it seems like the .040 was the outlier, and he is now “actually” a .280/.330/.370 hitter. You’re right that he was 19, and will probably add power and could become a better hitter, but I personally am not aware of anybody who thinks he will ever hit for serious power. This doesn’t mean that he can’t develop league-average power, but KG apparently doesn’t think he will.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 17, 2026 11:18 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

280/330/370

If those are (as I assume) MLB adjusted numbers, then that’s not at all bad for a 19 year old SS with above average defensive skills and near elite speed, and would more than justify a rating in the bottom half of the top 30.

I wonder what one would project 5 years down the road for a 19 year old who has a line of 280/330/370? I’m guessing 300/355/410 or something? Those #‘s, combined with 40 SB or something and above average defense, would probably add up to a top 5 SS at age 24. He probably won’t ever have “serious” power, but he doesn’t need to.

by BaseballBrain on Feb 17, 2026 11:35 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Michael Inoa at #20?

No, just no.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Feb 14, 2026 12:28 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My thoughts and disagreements

Guys who wouldn’t sniff my Top 100:

Brandon Erbe - Future reliever with inconsistent stuff and inconsistent performance to date.
David Cooper - Limited upside bat at a position with some plus plus bats on the way (Lars, Morrison, LaPorta, Freeman, etc.).
Engel Beltre - 15 BB:105 K.
Adys Portillo - International signee last year, 16 years old, has yet to pitch professionally, and yet, no Martin Perez?
Kyle Drabek - has done absolutely nothing to warrant this ranking, AND, coming off surgery.
Ross Detwiler - 22 years old in A+ with average stuff and below average numbers. Hmm…
Daniel Schlereth - Very aggressive Mrs. Goldstein.

Guys with questionable placements:

Brett Cecil - WAY too low for me. K’s, GB’s, with good reports. He’s about 50 spots too low for me.
J.P. Arencibia - WAY too high. Ok defense, with zero on base skills, good power, would be much lower on mine. If you include Arencibia at 43, then Teagarden has to make the top 100 somewhere, especially in a list that includes defense in the decision making criteria.
Derek Holland - What’s not to like? Progressed each year, has the stuff to match the results. I’d move him up 20 spots and have him ahead of Bowden and Matusz.
Logan Morrison - If you’re going to put Lars at 17, how do you drop Morrison down to 53? And then put Freeman in the 80’s. Too close in my eyes to have that large a gap between the three.
Carlos Triunfel - If you’re going to include someone like Marte in the top 100, it seems like a major oversight not to include Triunfel. It looks like he’s either top 25 for some, or not included at all for others.
Fernando Martinez - Behind Greg Halman? Next.
Ben Revere - Way too high for me. 1HR and scouts don’t see it in the swing, yet #36 on the list, ahead of guys like Hicks, Wallace, FMart, Logan Morrison, Freeman, etc.
Max Ramirez - Where is he?
Carrasco/Arrieta - Ahead of Main and Walden? Not for me.

Overall, I’m disappointed in his list, or, I simply disagree with his formula. Is it performance, is it production, what is it? I don’t see a consistent process in place.

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by ProspectTube.com on Feb 14, 2026 1:20 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think

he has to use a consistent formula for the entire list. When I grade/rank prospects, some factors really jump out at you and they are weighted more. What may be a key factor for one prospect may be a neglible one for another. It’s entirely subjective and trying to pigeon-hole every prospect to fit into some sort of absolute formula is a fools errand IMO. Comparing prospects is never an apples-to-apples comparison.

by slurve on Feb 14, 2026 1:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Weird logic.

I agree that one should weigh each case individually, but consistency is important. If player X and player Y are similar in their skill sets and both have intangibles you don’t like, you shouldn’t grade Player X a top 100 and leave Player Y off the list.

I think what ends up trapping people while they’re doing prospect lists is they rationalize something one way because of, perhaps, another’s opinion, while they wont rationalize something for the same reason. Then, when they realize their rationalizing has caused an oddity in their list, it’s too late to go back and change it.

It’s not a perfect science and requires a lot of research, but I think even the most dedicated baseball minds can get wonky.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 14, 2026 3:07 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's not really what

I was saying. Prospecting IS weird logic.

by slurve on Feb 14, 2026 3:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was the consistency part I was focusing on.

I think you can be consistent when it comes to projecting, but it sure seems as though projectionists refuse to do so.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 15, 2026 12:01 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

can you post the

write up on Inoa?

Also interested in the one on Anderson -

by oakballnack on Feb 15, 2026 12:06 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

there are lots of them

baseball america has a subscription package and a book, so does prospectus, espn insider and you can buy john’s book, quit stealing

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 15, 2026 11:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You seem to have a real disdain for sharing information.

Not that I’m disagreeing with your stance on subscription services, but hall monitors annoy me.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 15, 2026 11:33 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

exactly

no need to be a tool

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2026 1:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fair use.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 15, 2026 2:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Strasburg would have been Top 3

Don’t know how many caught it, but KG indicated that Strasburg, had he been eligible would have been in his Top 3 (presumably only behind Weiters and Price)

Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill

by Wilbur Wood on Feb 15, 2026 4:06 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not really

Dominating at the college level counts as more of a track record than dominating at the high school level. The Upton argument is about scouting reports trumping track record. While Strasburg has no pro track record, he does have both going for him.

by aap212 on Feb 15, 2026 4:21 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think its KG trying not to repeat the Upton mistake, actually.

I would make the argument he has over-corrected. Like with Brignac and Adenhart…

Its funny that John has recently talked about how he feels a major weakness of his is not giving up on a guy he once thought highly of - and KG has talked about how he feels a major weakness of HIS might be overreacting to a bad half season like Upton’s instead of looking at the body of work.

Goes to show you how much more art than science this really is…

by alskor on Feb 15, 2026 4:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Logan Morrison ...

John ranks him 13 among hitters … BP has him 53rd overall. Seems like a pretty big difference.

by squarejaw on Feb 15, 2026 8:01 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybe all 50 of those ahead of him are pitchers ;)

jk lol

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 1:18 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually BP's list is heavily pro-hitters

It wouldn’t surprise me if he was the 35th or 40th ranked hitter (I think Derek Holland was the 11th pitcher on the list and he was #40 or so).

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 16, 2026 10:57 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just counted

Morrison is the 37th hitter (Holland is the 15th pitcher)

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 16, 2026 10:58 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not just BP's list

John’s 50/50 ranking shows more higher grades for hitters than pitchers. It is kind of a down year for B+/A-/A pitching talent.

by aCone419 on Feb 16, 2026 2:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is it just me or were there much less B+/A-/As in general this year?

I didn’t count between hitters and pitchers so that might have been what I was picking up on. How many B+ and aboves were there this year in comparison to last?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 16, 2026 2:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sort of

This year there were 37 B+ or better hitters and only 22 B+ or better pitchers.

By my count, last year had 41 B+ or better hitters and 31 B+ or better pitchers.

2007: 39 B+ or better hitters, 34 B+ or better pitchers.

by aCone419 on Feb 16, 2026 3:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So the hitters are roughly in line with previous years

But that’s a dramatic drop in terms of top pitching prospects

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 16, 2026 7:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

((it was a joke)) lol

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 16, 2026 2:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs


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