I can see them not catching a bunch of breaks staying close to .500… but I can’t see them fallign that far. the starting pitching is still there, they picked up the bat, bullpens are a crapshoot nomatter what. Longoria for an entire year, a healthy crawford, i’m thinking 82-88 wins.

but if the pen doesn’t repeat what it did last year, then yes, this could indeed happen.

I think you have to look at their pitching. I dont believe any of their young pitchers had career yrs or yrs that cant be duplicated. I think the Pat Burrell is a good signing. I think Upton will have a much better year. Imagine a full year of Longoria as well. Then Price will be stuck in that rotation all year. Shields-Kazmir-Garza-Price-Sonnastine will be a dominate rotation. Welcome to the 90s braves redux.

This is one of those too good to be true deals where its hard to believe our own eyes. Its certainly possible the Rays not only win the division but do so with close to a 100 W’s.

I’m fairly sure their “pyth luck” from ’08 will be offset by:
a healthy in his prime Crawford
a healthy (remember the post season power) Bossman
a Joyce/Perez? platoon in RF
a whole season of a healthy (he was injured down the stretch w/ CC) Longoria,
a steady albeit slightly improving Navarro
Add in the obvious upgrade known as Burrell.
Pena, Aki & Bartlett are what they are at this point, no going backwards yet.
The D should remain constant correct?
Anybody here think Kaz, Shields, Sonny or Garza were lucky? Go back and check the numbers. Anybody here think Price is not a step up from EJax?

If they had the bullpen from ‘07 (possible worst in history) maybe they fall off 10 games. Figure they split the diff. between ’07 and ’08 at worst. But this yr’s edition was again smartly maneuvered this offseason. Maddon mixes/matches well, isn’t afraid to trust his instincts (yet another advantage). He knows his personnel thoroughly by now.

The better question is who’s left out in the cold between the Sauron & Saruman of baseball. I hope as always that it will be NYY but my hunch is Boston. Some like to talk about how they were 1 game away from Series - can’t have it both ways, they were also 1 game away from being run out in four straight. They looked old and played old. Only an obvious case of first time jitters let them back in - doubtful that happens again.

I think it’s only natural especially considering the talent in the AL East. You could argue every team besides Toronto improved, that alone should take wins from Tampa.

Obviously bullpens are fickle, I don’t think it’s smart to pencil another season of domination, regardless of what rookies are “waiting in the wings.”

I think the offense is the only thing you can say without any hesitation should improve.

if for not other reason than that division is simply brutal. Orioles are set to improve I think, and the other clubs didn’t do anything to make me think they are anything less than they were last season. Put them anywhere other than AL East & they could very well win 95+ again.

A poll of how many wins they will get to see where everyone stands may have been better. I’d be curious to see out of the 85% how many would be in the low to mid 80’s and who really believes in them and sees 90+wins.
I voted for the 78 end of the 73-78, not because I think they will fall apart but I wanted to be on the opposite side of the ’there’s no way’ crowd. I think they are closer to an 80 win team than a 90 win team. I wouldn’t be surprised by a .500 season, I don’t think they’d fall below that but I think 82-84 is alot more likely than people think.
Their expected record was only 91 wins. They scored the second fewest runs in the division, they played 11 games over in 1 run games, they were 33 games over at home, 14 games over within the division. Those aren’t likely to stay at those levels.
And on top of those places where regression can happen, I wouldn’t be too confident in being a 90+ win team with that bullpen, and no closer at the end to bail them out.

I don’t see it. The argument they will have a dramatic fall off is the division they play in-Toronto is also decent, and I think their offense will struggle more. The pro argument is a great and deep staff and the rest of the league is down. I like no one in the Central and LA is good in West but not as good as 08-Texas has suprise potential, Oakland maybe but the 3 best teams in AL all reside in AL East