Prospect Discussion Topic: Alderson vs. Bumgarner
Saturday/Sunday Discussion Topic: Tim Alderson vs. Madison Bumgarner
If you were the farm director of your favorite team, and you could pick either Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner out of the Giants farm system and put them in your system, who would you pick and why?
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28 comments
Comments
Alderson
Better total arsenal and better command.
http://www.21nunder.blogspot.com/
by jsmall404 on Apr 12, 2025 4:20 PM EDT 0 recs
IMO
Alderson is the safer pick to reach his potential, but Bumgarner has the higher ceiling. Arms like Bumgarner's dont grow on trees.
Tough call, but I would lean towards Alderson with him being less of a project at this point.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on Apr 12, 2025 4:35 PM EDT 0 recs
RE
Right, that is the obvious consensus that being LHP and mid 90s Bumgarner has a great arm. He has no second pitch to speak of. And less than 4% of high school LHP taken in the first round make it to the MLB. So dont count on it =)
It is not like Alderson's stuff is average. He has above average FB and Slider. He learns a 3rd pitch and he is a 1 or 2.
http://www.21nunder.blogspot.com/
by jsmall404 on Apr 12, 2025 5:40 PM EDT 0 recs
i dont know where everybody gets that bumgarner has no offspeed pitches just because his dad didn't let him until his junior year of high school. he actually has 2 good cruveballs. his changeup def needs work though.
by zeisenbe on
Apr 12, 2025 7:45 PM EDT
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4%
I'd never heard this 4% statistic before and I'm not sure where you got it. It didn't seem reasonable to me so I did some research. (Yes this is evidence of how exciting my life is -- I made this my Saturday night's activity.)
Anyway, I didn't really want to go back to the beginning of the draft so I checked every draft going back to 1997 which gives us a 10 year sample (I didn't factor in 2007 because it's not reasonable to expect any of those guys to be in the majors yet so it would just distort the numbers).
Since 1997, 23 HS LHPs were drafted in the First Round. Of those, currently 8 have made the majors (John Danks, Adam Loewen, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Macay McBride, Sean Burnett, Phil Dumatrait, and C.C. Sabathia) which means that approximately 35% of HS LHPs have made it to the bigs in the last ten years. If we go ahead and assume that Clayton Kershaw will make at least one MLB appearance, which, barring a tragic injury, seems quite likely, the number will bump up to nearly 40%.
Since I was playing with the numbers anyway, I checked out all of the other First Round pitchers. HS RHPs were slightly more likely to reach the majors than HS LHPs with 14 of 35 making it for an even 40%. That number may go up a bit more if Eric Hurley and Chris Volstad eventually make it. Jeremy Jeffress and Kyle Drabek still have a shot as well.
And what about college pitchers? LH college first rounders are a virtual lock to make the majors! 15 of 21 have made a MLB appearance for 71%. RHPs are less likely, but still more likely than HSers with 43 of 78 (58%) RH college pitchers making it.
In any event, I don't know where you got the 4% statistic, but I sincerely doubt its accuracy. I suppose it's possible that the thirty years of amateur drafts before 1997 were really bad for LH HS pitchers, but I doubt it was bad enough to reduce the percentage that dramatically.
Of course, none of this proves a thing about whether or not Bumgarner is better than Alderson (nor do I have a strong opinion one way or the other), but I thought it was interesting.
by knightgalt on
Apr 13, 2025 1:24 AM EDT
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RE
I believe I misquoted the stat. It is suppose to be all high school LHP (not just first rounders). Peter Gammons did a nice article on it last year and I am having a hard time finding it.
http://www.21nunder.blogspot.com/
by jsmall404 on
Apr 13, 2025 3:42 AM EDT
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RE
I can believe that 4% statistic, but considering how many rounds the MLB draft is, I'd be surprised if much more than 4% of all HS draftees at any position or any handedness ever make it to the bigs. And while my Saturday evening may have been slow, I'm not about to research that particular stat.
All this is to say that I don't think Bumgarner's handedness and status as a HS draftee really have anything to do with the liklihood of his future success.
by knightgalt on
Apr 13, 2025 11:24 AM EDT
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+1
I agree with you knightgalt. That statistic can be said about all draftees
by FishHead on
Apr 13, 2025 4:55 PM EDT
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RE
it is generally accepted that high school LHP have a greater "fail" rate that most other players.
However, I do agree that this stat really has no bearing on Bumgarner as he is more talented than most high school LHP in every draft. Just throwing it out there.
by jsmall404 on
Apr 14, 2025 12:15 AM EDT
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Very nice
Some really good comments here. I am STUNNED at the 4% success rate for lefties chosen in the first round.
You guys know a lot more about it than I (who am an expert only on Tim Lincecum. Why else do you think he would be the only pitcher I talk about. :), but personally I would take Alderson.
I didn't really like the mechanics of EITHER pitcher when I saw them on the draft-day tapes. But there is no denying that Alderson made an exciting debut last season, albeit in just five innings at the rookie league level.
My own choice would have been to take Rick Porcello instead of Mad Bum with that #10 pick. But the Giants would rather gamble $126 million on Barry Zito than $7 million on a guy who has a shot at pitching like the early Zito, but over a long career.
The Giants aren't going to be any good for a few years, so they really need Angel Villalona, their six picks in last year's overall top 51, their #5 overall pick this year and their likely high draft choices for two or three years after that to come through. Not all will, of course, but the Giants really need for a goodly percentage to come through -- particularly the ones with high ceilings.
Lincecum and Cain -- they keep us sane. The rest of team -- they make us scream.
by sharksrog on Apr 12, 2025 7:06 PM EDT 0 recs
I would lean towards Alderson...
unless my farm system desperately needed a LH starter.
Alderson looks like he can handle the hitter-friendly Cal League (small sample size, however), and a promotion to AA mid-season is not out of the question. He could be on much the same schedule as Cain was, and considering he is even more polished than Cain at the same stage in their development, Alderson looks like he could have a fine career ahead of him.
Those big strong LH who throw in the mid to upper 90's sure are tantalizing though...
by baseballjunkie on Apr 12, 2025 7:48 PM EDT 0 recs
Bumgarner struck out at least 3 in his first outing on curve balls. You need to throw out the high school scouting reports and see his stuff now.
by ECUmedford on Apr 12, 2025 11:22 PM EDT 0 recs
RE
you need to realize that striking out 3 people in Low A with curve balls dosent make it a good pitch
http://www.21nunder.blogspot.com/
by jsmall404 on Apr 12, 2025 11:30 PM EDT 0 recs
That is true
Your comment is correct -- although I'm not sure ECU said or even implied that Mad Bum's curve was a good one. I saw a little of his start Saturday night at milb.tv, and I felt he wasn't lost with his other pitches. I was actually a little more impressed than I thought I would be. I can see why the Giants like him. The ball seems to explode out of his hand as he slings it to the plate.
But it appeared to me that he was a little late turning his hips (Husker?), and I have been worried about his arm health since I saw his draft video.
by sharksrog on
Apr 14, 2025 3:19 AM EDT
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bumgarner..
Like most here, I like Alderson. I don't care about his funky delivery: I care about results, and with the same small-sample-size caveat others have mentioned, he's handling high A at age 19. His arsenal seems good enough, and his control seems nice. Double-A will be the big test, I think.
However, 4%-shot or no, Bumgarner has serious gas from the left, and I have never heard he was a one-pitch pitcher. Small sample as well, but he's got 10 Ks and 0 BBs in 8 IP. And he doesn't turn 19 until August. Low A is nothing at which to sniff, either, if you put up numbers like that at a young age and have velocity to go with both. The last 18yo the Giants pumped through the Sallie League with better than a K an inning was Matt Cain. If Bumgarner ends up as the lefty Matt Cain, you'll want him.
..though I wanted the Giants to have taken Heyward with that pick. Someone else can have the high-ceiling pitching project if I can have the high-ceiling hitter, every time.
by wcw on Apr 13, 2025 12:35 AM EDT 0 recs
bumgarner
it was a bad angle on milb.tv, but it sure looked like bumgarner was throwing some good breakers tonight.
by fewgoodcards on Apr 13, 2025 12:39 AM EDT 0 recs
RE
he may be..and i would imagine he has worked and improved alot on it.
however, ok, even if he develops that 2nd pitch to the point it is plus, thats still just 2 pitches..he then needs a passable third.
http://www.21nunder.blogspot.com/
by jsmall404 on Apr 13, 2025 1:06 AM EDT 0 recs
Change up
Mad Bum also had a change up. He got a strikeout with one, although it was too high and wouldn't likely have been swung at by a major leaguer.
by sharksrog on
Apr 14, 2025 3:21 AM EDT
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Neither
They SHOULD have taken a power bat with their first pick, preferebly Jason Heyward.
by Ian Stewart on Apr 13, 2025 1:08 PM EDT 0 recs
I dont disagree
But I dont have a problem with the giants drafting the high school pitchers in bumgarner and alderson. It would be nice for them to have another power bat but hitting is easier to find than top of the rotation pitching and the 2007 draft was deep in HS pitching so they took what the draft gave them. The giants need hitting prospects more than anyone, but they will be reaping the benefits of having a rotation of cain, lincecum, alderson, bumgarner in a few years
by FishHead on
Apr 13, 2025 4:57 PM EDT
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IMO
IMO the Giants should have taken Rick Porcello with the #10 overall pick. I realize the Tigers had to pay him $7 million to get him to sign, but didn't he have better than 1/18th the chance of success ($7 million divided by $126 million) that Barry Zito had?
by sharksrog on
Apr 14, 2025 3:22 AM EDT
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hmmm
this is hard to answer, because a lot of it depends on which is your favourite team and what they need.
i'm a big fan of the red sox and blue jays.
if i'm the farm director of the red sox system i'd be equally happy with both, but might give bumgarner the edge because 1). our system is strong 2). our starting pitching in the big leagues is full of young and talented pitchers, as such we can take the time to develop someone like bumgarner who has a high ceiling, but is more raw.
if i'm the farm director of the blue jays i'd probably pick alderson because he's closer to the big leagues and our current system is pretty weak, and has a better chance of being a no.2/3 pitcher than bumgarner does.
by bk11 on Apr 14, 2025 12:01 AM EDT 0 recs
RE
I think you are reading too much into the question. Most scouting directors dont factor in need anyway. They generally take who they feel is the best player (assuming they can sign him).
by jsmall404 on Apr 14, 2025 12:18 AM EDT 0 recs
Bumgarner so far this season
High era, but 0 walks to 10 ks, which is pretty encouraging.
Marcello on Tim Lincecum's 2008: "Yeah, he only pitched 180 innings last year, who knows if he can handle 200?!?!??"
by realityconquest on Apr 14, 2025 12:34 PM EDT 0 recs
Great point!
No walks and 10 strikeouts IS impressive. The high ERA is a little concern, but it is more than offset by such a great K/BB ratio.
by sharksrog on
Apr 15, 2025 3:27 PM EDT
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Last night
So last night Mad Bum walked something like three in 3 2/3 innings. :)
by sharksrog on
Apr 19, 2025 11:00 AM EDT
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Alderson
He has the kind of control and K/BB ratio that I dream about in a prospect.
(Of course, as a Giants fan I'd rather keep them both)
If you like things that are funny, perhaps you will enjoy ChatterBalks Dot Com?
by groug on Apr 14, 2025 6:46 PM EDT 0 recs




