I’d rank Huff higher, especially given that his numbers (BB, K, GB) have improved as he has advanced. I also like Weglarz more, but recognize that his 2008 was a little off, in part because of the Olympic hiatus. I think Jeff Stevens is a missing name. Not that he’s going to be a superstar, but he seems like he’ll be a useful bullpen arm.

is consistent with the other prospect prognosticators and it brings tears to my eyes that we traded a guy for Casey Blake for salary relief while the guy traded for CC ranks below him. With the Dodgers trading Santana, Meloan, and Watt they deserve the thin depth you graded yesterday.

I’ve heard some good things about Valbuena. Any chance he is the starting 2b in Cleveland this year? How about ‘10 and beyond? Or is he more of a UTIF? Where’s Indians Fan when you need him?

probably consider LaPorta and Santana for A- grades. Both are really good players who don’t get enough attention because they are in Cleveland. If they played for the Yankees or Red Sox, they would both be considered top 10 guys. I would rather have LaPorta than Lars Anderson, but some still rank Lars higher. LaPortahas more power and similar on base skills. The only thing Anderson really has on him is plate discipline.

Hello everyone, I hope you all are having a great holiday and are ready to have a Happy and Prosperous 2009! :-)

John - nice job on your list; most of the rankings and players you included seem to be on target (in my opinion).

10 thoughts:

1. As mentioned above, I think Jeff Stevens and Tony Sipp would need to be included in the “Others” list, at the very least. While Stevens had a little rockier 2008 than 2007, he still projects to help out in the bullpen this season and still put up very solid H/9 IP (6.0 at AA Akron and 5.8 at AAA Buffalo) and K/9 IP numbers (11.6 at AA Akron and 13.3 at AAA Buffalo). Additionally, he too dealt with the Olympic hiatus, which certainly can’t be easy to handle due to the distance traveled, the time zone change, and the fact of facing batters you’ve never seen before (and may never see again).

As for Sipp, he put up pretty decent numbers in his return, considering he wasn’t at 100% yet (only being about a year removed from Tommy John surgery - he had TJ surgery in July 2007) - supposedly, his velocity was close to 100%, but his command wasn’t quite back yet. He seemed to get better toward the end of the season (7.9 H/9 IP, 2.9 BB/9 IP, 13.3 K/9 IP at AA Akron). Presuming he returns to or close to his “old” self this season (being that he will be over 18 months removed from TJ surgery this season), he could factor prominently into the Indians’ bullpen, being that the 2nd left-hander in the bullpen at this point might be Minor League veteran Rich Rundles. And, like Rafael Perez, Sipp also has the ability to get RH hitters out with his stuff.

2. Regarding LaPorta, the BB/K slippage is a bit concerning, though I too am not that worried yet. Keep in mind what LaPorta had to go through during the 2008 season:

a. Gets traded to the Indians’ system in the Sabathia deal and must acclimate to a new league (that is more pitcher-friendly than the Southern League, I believe) and new pitchers.
b. He and his girlfriend move into a new house (not sure if there was a problem with the mortgage or not).
c. (I believe I’m correct on this) - his grandfather passes away.
d. He’s selected to the Olympic team to play in Beijing.
e. He gets drilled (possibly deliberately) while playing in Beijing.

That would be challenging to deal with for any prospect, so it’s not totally unexpected to see him fall off a bit from his past performance. While he needs to regain his plate discipline, it’s likely the tools and ability are still there, and the fact that he is getting a fresh start to his new organization and time to acclimate to AAA (which is why I think he should spend at least half-a-season at AAA Columbus unless he’s absolutely destroying the league the first 1-2 months), a rebound is a solid to strong possibility.

Regarding LaPorta’s defense, reports I’ve read and heard seem to think that LaPorta can handle the OF well enough, much like sdtribefan suggested. He likely will never be a Gold Glover out there, but would likely be solid enough to not be a liability defensively out there.

3. Regarding Luis Valbuena, the Indians see him in the mix in the early part of 2009 to play at 2B (splitting time with Carroll or Barfield), then being in position to be the long-term 2B (late 2009 or 2010 and beyond).

Most reports I’ve read seem to suggest that Valbuena should be an above-average defensive 2B. He’s rated as only an average runner, but seems to have good instincts, above-average range, and a strong, accurate arm.

Offensively, some seem to think Valbuena may have more power in him (I even seen one report, not sure where at the moment, that thinks he could turn into “Robinson Cano-lite”; another report suggested a “Ray Durham-type”), but as of right now, he has solid plate skills in that he can work the count, draw walks, and limit the number of strikeouts.

Certainly, the Indians are hoping that Valbuena can fill that 2B hole that is not likely to be filled anytime soon by the farm system (unless Josh Barfield rediscovers his 2006 form, which seems more unlikely than likely at this point), so I think he’ll get every chance to be the Indians’ long-term 2B starter.

4. I too am not sure why Rondon is overlooked and/or ranked lower than one might expect. I read one report that suggested he doesn’t have much of a breaking ball, but I’m not sure how credible that report was; I did not seem to get that impression from Tony Lastoria, who follows the Indians very closely on his Indians Prospect Insider site (sorry, don’t have the link handy), nor did I really hear about a lack of a breaking ball from other sources either. AA will certainly give a better indication of Rondon’s abilities, but his dominance at High-A at age 20 combined with an above-average to power arm and very good control should certainly give him a projectable ceiling of being a very solid starter at this point.

Additionally, his GO/AO ratio in 2008 was 0.85, so he does get a few more FBs than GBs, but that’s not that unusual or extreme for a power pitcher, and it was reported in the Futures Game that Rondon was throwing an “easy” 95 MPH according to World Team manager Larry Parrish, which is mentioned here. Plus, he only gave up 12 HRs in 145 IP, or a 0.7 HR/9 IP rate, so I think the HR and GB ratios are getting a bit overblown. It’s something to keep an eye on, but I don’t think it’s that BIG of a concern, not at this point.

5. We’ve discussed Rivero’s future at SS extensively at LetsGoTribe (for those interested, do a search for “Carlos Rivero” at LetsGoTribe - we just had a discussion about him and his defense within the last 6 months), and the reports we’ve seen and heard suggest that Rivero actually has a good shot of staying at SS, as the Indians are quite pleased with his defense at SS. There were some suggestions in the past offseason or two about Rivero outgrowing the position, but that has not been mentioned much lately. From what I’ve read and heard, Rivero moves around the position well, has quick reactions, and has a strong arm, so I wouldn’t rule him out playing SS long-term.

I do agree about Chisenhall - that’s why reportedly the Indians will move him to 3B next season, I believe - the Indians were impressed also with Chisenhall’s defense at SS, which is why they think he can be an above-average defender at 3B.

6. As for Mills/Weglarz/LaPorta/Hodges, it’s probably likely not all four will be future Indians. The only possible way I could maybe see it happening is if one is in LF (LaPorta, Mills, or Weglarz), one in RF (LaPorta seems the only possibility, and that might be a decent stretch, as he’s often talked about more in LF than RF), one at 1B (Hodges, LaPorta, or Weglarz - recall Weglarz was a 1B in HS, not an OF), and one at DH (this is presuming that Hafner does not revert back closer to his “old” form, which is unfortunately, a decent possibility at this point).

However, I could see one, or maybe even two, being trade bait down the road, possibly in this order of being the likeliest of being traded:

Hodges
Mills/Weglarz
LaPorta

Hodges’ defense has really faltered at 3B, and his bat may not be good enough for 3B or 1B (which already has Garko and Martinez there, not to mention LaPorta soon arriving and Mills and Weglarz not far behind), so I suspect Hodges could be the likeliest to be traded, especially while he still has some value left.

I’m not sure which one between Mills and Weglarz would be the next-likeliest; for some reason, I’m thinking Mills being slightly more likely than Weglarz, only because Weglarz is younger, has great power potential, and has great plate discipline (this isn’t to imply that Mills is weak in power or plate discipline; plus, Mills was reportedly pretty solid around 1B in 2008, whereas Weglarz is not that solid in the OF and is unknown defensively at 1B, being that he hasn’t played it since 2006) but I think it would depend on any specific trade scenario - in either case, it would likely have to be a major trade (either involving a quality starter, preferably with upside, who is under control for a long period of time, or a 3B with upside under control for a long period of time).

LaPorta would seem very unlikely to be moved any time soon unless some trade out-of-the-blue for unprecedented value came out of the woodwork, and I think that is unlikely. LaPorta was the key piece in the Sabathia trade, so they almost assuredly need to keep LaPorta around and hope he develops into the productive middle-of-the-order hitter for years to come as expected.

7. Regarding Huff, I’m hopeful and think he could have a higher ceiling and brighter future than Sowers because he would seem to have more margin for error due to the following reasons:

a. He has greater consistent velocity than Sowers (Huff can reach 93-94 and is consistently 90-92; Sowers HAS reached 93-94 on rare occasions, but is more consistently 88-91).
b. Additionally, I believe Huff’s fastball has more life and movement to it than Sowers’.
c. Huff has a genuine out pitch (changeup), whereas Sowers does not have a genuine out pitch.
d. Huff has shown consistently much better K/9 IP rates in his first taste of AAA (9.0), whereas Sowers did not (5.0; Sowers’ rates did improve upon his return to AAA in 2007 and 2008, but even then, they were only 5.6 and 6.4, respectively), so Huff should have more margin for error, being that he gets more movement on his pitches and are harder to square up than the pitches Sowers throws.
e. Additionally, Huff’s initial BB rate at AAA was just 1.7; that’s even better than the very solid 2.7 Sowers showed in his first extended stay at AAA.

8. Miller will certainly be a reliever in 2009, but the Indians have not ruled him out as being a starter long-term, as it sounds like they’d like him to return to the rotation in 2010. Certainly, health is the key for his success, as his stuff and mental makeup seem to indicate he could be a dominant pitcher (either at the front of a rotation or possibly as a closer).

Meloan seems likely to stay in the bullpen, as the Indians like him better there. If he can regain his form before the Dodgers turned him into a starter, he could be a very dominant reliever, and perhaps even closer material himself one day.

9. Regarding Bryson, yes, he did tear his labrum, which he had surgery on. The surgery, by all accounts, went well, but how Bryson’s power arm respond to it remains to be seen. Most labrum surgeries in the past, if I’m correct, usually lead to a reduction in velocity and the pitcher often has difficulty coming back, so Bryson’s future may not be as promising as it was when the trade was made. Anything the Indians can get from Bryson now might be considered a bonus; how well LaPorta and Brantley turn out will likely determine how good the Sabathia trade will be for the Indians.

10. Regarding McBride, I had heard he was doing some OF work. He’s always been a highly-regarded prospect, but I don’t know if his offensive production will be enough to make him more than a decent to solid OF. The injuries have not helped his development, as he will be 24 in May and has had just 2 games at AA Akron. It took him a while to get his timing back this season; perhaps his best chance at the ML level (at least with the Indians) would be to be more like a “super-sub” where he could play OF, 1B, and C - that way, if he never hits for a great amount of power (and that’s still very much in doubt), he could still provide some decent to solid value for a ML team.

With the Indians’ catching depth especially (Martinez, Shoppach, Gimenez, Toregas, and Santana all ahead of McBride at this point), McBride’s best route may either be exclusively in the OF or as a possible “super-sub.” Of course, his ability to stay healthy and produce offensively will be key to him even being able to make this idea a possible reality.

Just my 2 cents!

Again, nice job with the list, John - keep up the great work!

Take care everyone and have a Happy, Safe, and Prosperous 2009! :-)

Unless I missed something, John doesn’t think much of the 3 guys going to the Cubs.