Carlos Gonzalez

by John Sickels on Dec 5, 2025 3:24 PM EST in News Comment 56 comments

A simple question for you:

Carlos Gonzalez....B+ or A-???

Discuss.

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B+

his plate discipline isn't really developed enough to warrant an A, and his tools are not so great to overcome that.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 5, 2025 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I think the more pressing question is does he deserve a B+ at all?

by jaguar2490 on Dec 5, 2025 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

His K/BB ratios are pretty weak. But that has alot to do with the Pop he showed at A+... 21 HRs in 400 ABS is soild. I think his age is about right for the league as long as he starts in AA next year. For now i'd Say B+ depending on how his ratios improve and if he can keep his slugging % up in AA.

70% of the earth's surface is covered by water. The rest is covered by Endy Chavez.

by JDSussman on Dec 5, 2025 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Park effects

21 HR in 400 ABs is less impressive in Lancaster, which has a huge park factor; one park adjustment gives him 15 HR and a 277/334/493 BA/OBA/SLG in a neutral park (but still in the Cal League, which is hitter-friendly itself).

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/471/471865LanCALb06.html

B+ is plenty. Toolsy prospect with potential, but given park and league, his numbers are good but not nearly good enough to justify an A-.

by cconley on Dec 5, 2025 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Park Effects

I was looking to find some before i wrote it, where do you find them??

70% of the earth's surface is covered by water. The rest is covered by Endy Chavez.

by JDSussman on Dec 5, 2025 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i mean

other than MLS dot Com

70% of the earth's surface is covered by water. The rest is covered by Endy Chavez.

by JDSussman on Dec 5, 2025 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Park effects

2006 park factors (apparently through mid-July):
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pf.html

Description of park factors and how they're used:
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pfexp.html

by cconley on Dec 5, 2025 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the HRs

are made less impressive by Lancaster, but the fact that more than 50% of his hits went for extra bases clearly shows that he's got present power, and at 20, he's still got a lot of projection left.

I think he's definitely an A-.

by jhelfgott on Dec 5, 2025 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good post...

Gonzalez seems a little overrated to me.

Great tools, but if you take away his 7 IBB, he's got a 23/104 K:BB.

That's not an elite prospect IMO.

1.107 OPS at home to a .728 OPS on the road.

Personally I'm not a big fan of him. Toolsy, unrefined prospect who happens to be in a system loaded with hitters parks. Worse, I heard his attitude blows.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 5, 2025 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm....

"Worse, I heard his attitude blows."

Attitude is an intangible, but we can discount that "because they don't matter."

Good stuff. Anyway, I agree with Lefty - he is a tad over-rated to me.

by slurve on Dec 6, 2025 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B+

I like Gonzalez alot, but until he improves his walk rate a bit, I don't see him as an A-.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 5, 2025 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hard one

B++

by nevin on Dec 5, 2025 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A-

The only negative on him (aside from being Manny Ramirez in the OF) is his plate discipline, and his was both improved in AA (though he hit poorly) and was even more improved in VFL.

Yes, it's a small sample, but he looks to be a potential .300, 30 homer guy with good speed. That to me is an A prospect.

by Galt on Dec 5, 2025 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you can bank on his steals

16-8 over 464 AB isn't that spectacular, especially at the lower levels. Just having speed doesn't mean you'll be able to utilize it, so if he doesn't play good defense, his value boils down to hitting and youth. Which are, of course, a couple of pretty nice points in his favor. I'd give him the B+ since he still has the high minors to tackle.

by chaney on Dec 5, 2025 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

does he have good speed?

i've heard his speed is just average.

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he's hardly Manny in the outfield

much more athletic and he has plus arm strength. He projects as an above average glove in the OF, just needs to increase his concentration in the field which should come as he matures.

by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 5, 2025 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A-

I really like this kid. A lot. I think he's in the "really really good but not elite" category right now, but that will change by this time next year

by Jgaztambide on Dec 5, 2025 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That sounds like a B+

Seriously. By John's definition of a B-/C+ being decent major league talent.

by siddfynch on Dec 5, 2025 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

disagree

I'm not sure how you interpret John's rating system to consider a "very very good" prospect as a possible C+.

Anyway, the wording on "A" fits my impression of Gonzalez to a "T":
"The have a good chance of becoming stars [...] Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars." I'd include the "-" on Gonzalez, but there's little doubt in my mind that this guy will hit enough to be a major league regular, with a strong likelihood of being a star. Personally, my intuition on him is that his chances are about:
regular: 90%
star: 50% ("star" is so ambiguous!)
superstar: 10%

by BobbyMac on Dec 6, 2025 3:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B+

Plate discipline is a serious concern, as is underwhelming performance given the anticipation of him going to the CAL League and playing for Lancaster. Though I'm not a fielding %age equals defense guy, his error rate is also terrifying.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Dec 5, 2025 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

A player who is a good athlete, .275-.290 with emerging power (35 2B in 403 AB, nice). I'd take him in a heart beat. I think he ranks up near the top, but I think he needs to pass the AA litmus test before I'm sold on an A. But he could probably start in a few outfields this year if he had to.

by sdangler on Dec 5, 2025 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

For the reason that other's have mentioned...his lack of BB's and his struggles to make contact at times is a bit worrisome...but the kid has some major talent.

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on Dec 5, 2025 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A-

He'll be an all-star caliber player similar to Francoeur and he could cut it in the Majors right now in my opinion.

by themurph on Dec 5, 2025 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Francoeur isn't an all-star caliber player...

At least not with the numbers he put up last year. For the same reason that Carlos Gonzalez is not an A- prospect. Plate discipline.

by ajohnst1 on Dec 5, 2025 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B...b...BUT!!

Francoeur had 29 HRs and over 100 RBIs.

How is that NOT all star?

by SenorGato88 on Dec 5, 2025 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Easy

....When that 29 HR and 100+ RBI come with a 293 OBP.

by BaseballBrain on Dec 5, 2025 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how is that NOT sarcasm?

2299f9 apex illuminated(

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B+

When he hits well in AA, he gets the A-.

His plate discipline is a major concern, his power isn't in the Brandon Wood category, and he doesn't play a premium position.

Great young prospect, but not an A grade.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 5, 2025 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

Tough call, but I lean toward B+.
Same concerns about BBs as some others have stated. He has a high upside if he gets control of the strikezone, but I want to see improvements before I call him an A Grade prospect.

by eastin on Dec 5, 2025 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

It's only 61 ab's, but AA was a big challenge for the then 20 year old. If he takes another step next year, then he would warrant an "A". As it stands he's done nothing exceptional with any one skill and still has shortcomings.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Dec 5, 2025 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A-

I think

by Havok1517 on Dec 5, 2025 5:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

love him, own him, but i think he's still a B+ right now. i'm with everybody else - give him the A- if he can take a step forward with his hitting in AA.

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 5:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

but

he's probably just about the #1 B+. you can see why the question is asked.

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

uh-oh

carlogon is ahead of lincecum on the community prospect list, and lincecum got a straight-up A. busted!

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B +

My Opinion

by thedude on Dec 5, 2025 5:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A-

Due to his improved plate discipline in Venezuela this winter. I know its a small sample size, but it is an improvement (BB:K, 17:15).

by tommygun on Dec 5, 2025 6:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

easy call

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 5, 2025 6:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How can a much proven and close guy like...

Gonzalez be a borderline A-/B+ and Tabata an A-?

by Havok1517 on Dec 5, 2025 7:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i'd say mature hitting approach

tabata's already got a better plate approach than gonzalez does. that makes it pretty hard for him to miss. not impossible, but removes the #1 crash-and-burn factor.

and for crying out loud, havok, let the tabata thing go for a few weeks. for the love of god. just let it go. you think he's overrated. we get it. message received.

i mean if there's a tabata thread, go ahead and say your piece. just don't be the first one to drag his name into the carlos gonzalez thread, all right?

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, if it is something I think that...

needs mentioning I'll mention it, thanks.

When comparing the 2, Gonzalez is more advanced and has produced on those levels. I think Gonzalez deserves a A- rating over Tabata (or any guy as young and as low in the minors as he is Martinez included).

by Havok1517 on Dec 5, 2025 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok

just... try not to belabor the point, all right? for me.

and sure, gonzalez is at a higher level, and has "produced" - but everybody's produced something. for a tools-beast corner OF, in lancaster, in the cal league, his numbers were really only ok. the reasoning is - and i've generally been anti-tabata-top-20-this-soon, myself, so in a way i'm on your side. but you've beaten the horse so hard i'm moved to pity. and i think i see the reasoning here: gonzalez has a commonly troublesome flaw in his game, e.g. contact / plate discipline problems, which means he could really still go either way as a hitter at this point. tabata, even at his young age and lower level, has more or less already put that to rest. you can question his body projection, so that he might not be the superstar some suppose just by purely extrapolating his numbers vs. age vs. level - i agree with you that there's been some irrational exuberance on that front. but as long as a guy hits, he'll have a career, and tabata pretty much will hit. gonzalez, there's doubt. do you disagree?

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

there are so many other questions that come to mind with a young player. Will they regress? Will they suffer much from advancing? Will they peak too early and then never rebound? What happens when they face advanced pitching (steller stuff, off=speed, etc.), will they adjust? Etc. I suppose I could go on and on about the "what ifs" for any young player. Gonzalez has gone through all of that already and has done well. He might have the most offensive upside of anyone in the Arizona system, I did say might but its certainly not out of the question. Many players with a below average contact rate that strikout a lot do very well (IE Ryan Howard and his 181 Ks). Not comparing Howard to Gonzalez or anything but just proving a point. When comparing Gonzalez and Tabata, both comparable A- players, Gonzalez has shown more power, speed, & arm. If Tabata is an A-certainly Gonzalez is as well, if not higher. Personally, I think Tabata should be a B+ with Gonzalez an A-. I only used Tabata as a comparable A- because he was the only A- OF that I thought should be rated lowered by John so far. BIlly Butler was the only other and can you question his bat...um no.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/262222.html

by Havok1517 on Dec 5, 2025 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sure

"there are so many other questions that come to mind with a young player. Will they regress? Will they suffer much from advancing? Will they peak too early and then never rebound? What happens when they face advanced pitching (steller stuff, off=speed, etc.), will they adjust? Etc."

but most of those - if a guy's game is going to actually go backwards from points he's already reached, that's basically impossible to predict. could happen to anyone. happens to major leaguers too. in terms of advancing levels, though, that's basically what i'm saying - guys who get exploited at a higher level are usually guys who have flaws, and contact / discipline problems are suspect #1 in most of those situations. the theory is that tabata has a more durable, well-rounded offensive approach than gonzalez, that will hold up better under promotion. from what it sounds like, he really has no flaws in his hitting approach - that's what's so remarkable about him. that's kind of the whole point.

i'll defend a chris young, when a guy strikes out a lot but also walks a lot, and his strikeouts hold steady or go down as he advances levels. (and we are seeing some of that from our carlos. the numbers from venezuela are very encouraging - but at the same time it's hard to trust winter ball numbers, since it's such a small sample and such a radical change, and we don't know much about the context.) but so far, CG has struck out a lot and walked not so much. that's a far more worrying profile.

if the venezuelan trend is real, and his walks come up and strikeouts come down next year in AA, he could skip the A- altogether and go straight to an A. but i want to see it.

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I want to see

young guys that have a ton of hype & potential improve and do it again and again.

by Havok1517 on Dec 5, 2025 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hype?

see, the fact that you're using the word "hype" in this discussion makes me think you're still on a "yankee hype machine" kick here. i'm talking about these guys as players. hype is not a tool; it's not a skill. we're talking about why an unbiased observer might give Player T with one profile a higher grade than Player C with a different profile, even when Player T is signficantly younger and playing at a lower level. there are times when it does make sense to do that. you're not really responding to what i'm saying at all.

by wily mo on Dec 5, 2025 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thats you...

I don't wanna talk about Tabata. I mentioned him because he's not yet in Gonzo's class. I'm not even talking about Tabata in what I last wrote. There is hype surrounding many young players, not just Tabata. But young players, such as he, have to do a lot more to warrant such a high ranking imo, which Gonzao has. I only used Tabata as an example because I feel that Gonzo is so much more superior to him right now and he was the only other A- OF (besides the superior Butler) ranked so far. People can compare the 2.

Butler
Gonzalez

Tabata

by Havok1517 on Dec 6, 2025 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok

what's a lot more? what could a low-A player possibly do to warrant being ranked over gonzalez, in your opinion?

and what do you think about all this contact / discipline stuff that i've been saying? you haven't really addressed it. it doesn't have to be about tabata in particular.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2025 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really don't like...

ranking any guy that young over a guy that much more proven. So, the chances of any low A guy surpassing an stud prospect like Gonzalez in my ranking are slim.

But here are some things that I would look for in no real order. I'd like to see some power in the low minors. Not a ton but some. Speed (you don't always have to be fast to steal some bases). Defense, body, arm strength, and the abilty to get on base. But again I would rank youngsters much lower than a proven prosepct. (BTW I'd rank Tabata and Martinez in our community prospect ranking probably 10-15 spots lower than where they are). What does hitting well in the low minors prove except that that player has the "potential" to hit well in a more advanced level? Gonzo has already done that all the way to the cusp of the majors. Has a player like Tabata or Martinez proven that they can hit in a more advanced level, not yet. Did they prove that they have to potential to do so, yes. But until they do, they haven't.

I did state that many players that strikeout a lot are still very productive. Often times, players that walk a lot do so by respect not discipline. I'm not a huge OBP guy. It is a great stat to go by but like any stat there are exceptions. Was Nick Johnson better than Ryan Howard because his OBP was better? No. Free swinging isn't always a bad thing. Vlad is a crazy free swinger and gets by with it just fine. Francouer can't buy a walk often but is doing okay. Gonzo is still young and his numbers in winter ball are encouraging. I see no reason why that trend can't continue.

by Havok1517 on Dec 6, 2025 1:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

potential

with tabata (and i like how this thread has evolved to a point where i'm the one who keeps bringing up tabata) i think - i agree with you that just putting up great numbers in low A at a young age doesn't prove that you won't later be exploited by older, more experienced men. so to speak. but with tabata it's more than numbers. experienced scouts and prospect watchers who watch him hit seem to be exceptionally impressed by what he's doing. i'm not qualified to judge that myself, but when i hear some of the things i've heard said about him by the pros, i tend to trust it. that's something to back up his raw numbers.

re gonzalez: i'm not saying strikeouts are a kiss of death. and it's not just about OBP. it's about strike zone control. howard strikes out a lot, but he controls the strike zone. vlad is a freak whose strike zone goes from his toes to his nose, so he doesn't need to control it. he just carries it around with him, wearing it like a suit. and francouer doesn't control the strike zone, and isn't really doing okay. gonzalez may well learn to do it well. but it's something that he doesn't have down yet, that someone like tabata does, and it can be a very big thing.

we might as well leave it here, i think we've both made our points and then some. i don't think you're totally wrong, but i do think there's arguments to be made both ways on this one and that ranking tabata over gonzalez is supportable by some solid reasoning.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2025 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B+

I mentally do a huge discount on Lancaster numbers, and I didn't like what I saw at the end of the season at Tennessee.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Dec 5, 2025 7:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

I'm an AZ guy but he has too many unanswered questions at this point to be an A. Attitude is my biggest worry and could prevent him from being a star

by ScottAZ on Dec 5, 2025 8:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B/B+

Stronger grades for players at higher levels, and the converse. A grades only for truly extraordinary low minors players, not just very good ones.

by bootsy on Dec 5, 2025 9:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

B+

Park factors considered. I like to see that most people agree.

A Marlins fan in exile. Keep the Fish in Miami!

by jdelavalle on Dec 5, 2025 9:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A-

Gonzalez's walk rate was consistently good in Lancaster except during June, when he absolutely raked the ball. After an initial downturn following his promotion to Double-A Tennessee, it rebounded to previous levels during his last few weeks with the Smokies.

Disappointment in his brief tenure in Tennessee is understandable, but regressing his BABIP toward the mean should temper any harsh judgments. Considering the leaps Gonzalez has made during winter ball, he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

by Joy in Melville on Dec 5, 2025 9:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No evidence

that you can regress BABIP for hitters.

I saw Gonzalez's games against the Mudcats after his promotion, and quite honestly, he looked as though he didn't have a clue what he was doing up there; he hit one ball solidly the entire series. Maybe it was just fatigue, but I think that and the fact that his Lancaster performance was extremely home-heavy justifies the lower grade. I want to see him dominate AA before going up the scale.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Dec 5, 2025 9:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs