Padres MOD #3

by mrkupe on May 18, 2025 1:27 PM EDT

Good morning/afternoon my Padres brothers(?)! With the Mock Draft only about a week away and mrkupe running on fumes, it's time to get serious. One thing that I've really been struggling with is that I just haven't been impressed by a lot of the players near the top of the draft - there are a lot of guys who look better on paper than in reality. As I've noted, I'm unwilling to go boom-or-bust on a prospect unless he's a Giolito or Buxton with 60+ grades across the board. At the same time, I fully agree that a high-ceiling low-floor type does not make sense for the Padres at the top of the draft. I imagine the organization would agree, and I think we should pay heed to what the team did last year with multiple high picks, looking aggressively to the prep ranks. Hopefully we won't get a kid with a bum shoulder like Michael Kelly (who took about half the money he was hoping for after this problem was discovered). Some players have been struck from the list, and there is one new addition.

PLAYERS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PICK 7

Lucas Giolito - I think he'll be gone, but the gamble would make sense with so many picks, and I'm on board with taking him at this spot if he can be had. He is by no means a finished product but he has frontline starter potential.

Lance McCullers - I am intrigued with his pedigree, athleticism, and pure power stuff. His two best pitches are better than Max Fried's two best pitches, even if Fried fits the classic projection pitcher mold.

Max Fried - Hard to get this kind of overall package, but I can't shake the feeling that his realistic upside isn't quite as pronounced as I would hope for. Still has a future 70 breaking ball, but the velocity really is average at the moment and he needs to build stamina.

Gavin Cecchini - My intuition on his bat is strong, and he's a high makeup player who is going to get every chance to stick at SS. He doesn't have a single bad tool. He is a potential impact player.

David Dahl, OF, Alabama HS - At first I wasn't considering Dahl, but after some reflection, I have to say that I love his scouting reports and I love his tape. He has an unbelievably smooth and consistent swing with good bat speed, and every one of his tools is average if not better. He also has an advanced approach for his age, which really is not something that can be overvalued. Looks awesome when he faces elite competition. I think he can be a high-impact player.

I don't think the list is going to change from here. I just can't get behind Courtney Hawkins - great athlete and great power but I don't think he is going to be enough of a hitter to make it all work. Below-average hitting skill and below-average approach is a bad combination to gamble on at 7. So, rank these five guys for me in order of preference if you will.

After pick 7, I've decided to put an emphasis on athletes with pure hitting skills and power stuff. I'll list the slot values at each pick so you can get an idea of what we have to work with re: signability. Feel free to list in order of preference or just name your favorite 1-2 players at each spot. You can chime in with extra players, but try to keep it to a minimum of one extra player. This is just through pick 70 at the moment.

33 ($1,525,000) - Tanner Rahier, Mitch Brown, Ty Buttrey, Hunter Virant, Nolan Fontana

44 ($1,165,800) - Washington HS RHP Mitchell Gueller, Texas HS SS Austin Aune, Travis Jankowski, Peter O'Brien, Alex Wood, Austin Maddox, Nolan Sanburn

55 ($925,900) - Adam Brett Walker, Edwin Diaz, Jeff Gelalich, Jake Barrett, Clate Schmidt, Cody Poteet

68 (somehow this changed from what I last saw) ($757,900)/ 70 ($734,900)- Joey Demichele, Stephen Johnson, Brandon Thomas, Brady Rogers, Alec Rash, Stephen Bruno, Brett Mooneyham, Florida JC RHP Brandon Welch, Carson Fulmer

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oh, and almost forgot, here's what I would roll with given my own preferences (but no Giolito on the board)

1.7 - David Dahl, OF, Alabama HS
1.33 - Tanner Rahier, SS, California HS
1.44 - Mitchell Gueller, RHP, Washington HS
1.55 - Cody Poteet, RHP, California HS
2.68 - Joey Dimichele, 2B/3B, Arizona State University
2.70 - Stephen Bruno, SS, University of Virginia

All preps should be very signable at this range. Gives us two solid contributors with significant upside in Dahl and Rahier, an underrated power arm in Gueller, an athletic three-pitch guy in Poteet, and two solid college position players in Dimichele and Bruno to diversify the class. Also adds two shortstops to the system. Thoughts on this class? Should we go more aggressive at 55/68/70? Too many preps early?

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread UPDATED MAY 10

by mrkupe on May 18, 2025 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

It looks like

Fried was back on track last night.

XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1

by DominicanDandy on May 18, 2025 7:12 PM EDT reply actions

yes

I had a feeling the reports were possibly intentionally misleading. I would have no concerns about taking Fried # 7 overall.

by PadresFuture on May 18, 2025 7:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

ok, let me try posting this possible scenario then

Taking a pitcher at 7 increases the pressure to diversify a bit, especially if we decide to go for pitching at 33.

1.7 - Max Fried, LHP, California HS
1.33 - Mitch Brown, RHP Minnesota HS
1.44 - Austin Aune, SS, Texas HS
1.55 - Adam Brett Walker, 1B/OF, Jacksonville State University
2.68 - Brandon Thomas, OF, Georgia Tech University
2.70 - Brady Rogers, RHP, Arizona State University
3.102 - Chris Taylor, SS, University of Virginia

We start off with two athletic arms with frontline starter potential in Fried and Brown. We get aggressive to bring in Aune, a toolsy shortstop with impressive offensive potential. The rest of the way we look to the college ranks. Walker has plus power but needs development time to refine his swing. Thomas is a good athlete/performance combo but it’ll be interesting to see where he profiles in the pros. Rogers should be an easy sign at this point, he’s athletic and has a solid pitch mix that increases the floor of the class. Taylor may not stick at short, but he has the chops to give it a serious try and he could have an above-average bat for the position.

Signability is very much on my mind, though . . .I’d like to use our big slot values to target prep players, as we have the luxury of diversifying with the smaller slot values.

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread UPDATED MAY 10

by mrkupe on May 18, 2025 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Course change?

This is a major change of course after multiple weeks. You sureyou want to do this on a Friday at 10:30 :)

If you want Dahl why not Almora if available?

If your will take McCullers higher than most would take him then why not Stroman who profiles to be the same t ype of pitcher?

Hawkins out alreadY? Not that I disagree, he’s just too risky for my blood at 7.

by scadder21 on May 19, 2025 2:04 AM EDT reply actions

not too much of a course change

I just hadn’t really given Dahl that much thought at this pick and figured he’d be gone by 33, so I wasn’t worried about ranking him. I actually like him a LOT - I think he’ll hit and probably hit a lot. He has room to add strength. He has a shot to stick in CF, but if he moves over to a corner he has the potential to be an excellent bat. I think I prefer him to Almora, who plays in an area with more exposure. As far as I can tell, Almora beats Dahl in present defense and that’s about it. The tape I’ve watched on both just reinforces it for me - Dahl looks awesome and Almora is just okay to me.

I really like Stroman, but McCullers’ stuff is a bit better. McCullers will take longer, but such a player makes sense for the Padres with so many arms at or near the major league level. Plus I haven’t gotten backing for Stroman at all from the Padres fans here, while I’ve gotten two endorsements on McCullers.

I’m preparing to cut the list of first round candidates from 5 to 3, and that includes Giolito. If people want to weigh in on the process, they definitely should, but in lieu of other feedback I’m going to go with the guy I like the best.

Any thoughts on 33/44/55?

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread UPDATED MAY 10

by mrkupe on May 19, 2025 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions

UPDATE: list has been cut

I’m continuing to assume that Giolito will not be on the board at 7. His signability may also be an issue in real life - we might not have enough information about his arm before the draft, and in any case the rumor is that his bonus demands are VERY high. Our slot value at No. 7 is $3 million even, and that might get it done. We could also conceptually go signability somewhere to give us more “money” to sign him. Still, if it turns out his arm is fine and he’s throwing 93-95 mph a couple of days before the mock draft, forget it as he’s not going to be on the board. Weigh in if you want, but I’m setting aside for the moment.

The list of candidates is down to Fried, McCullers, and Cecchini.

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread UPDATED MAY 10

by mrkupe on May 19, 2025 2:53 PM EDT reply actions

May 20 update

Good morning to those of you reading out there. Officially in the home stretch before the mock draft and I’m starting to lock down the picks. I’ve settled on my player of preference at No. 7 with two backups in the event of a couple of surprises. I have also done the same at No. 33 - one player of preference, two backups that I am expecting to be on the board at that point. For those of you who have contributed to the thread, if you want to know who we are targeting, send me an e-mail using my Minor League Ball profile (it’s at the bottom of the screen under “Moderators”) and tell me what your screen name is. This should ensure that we won’t get counterdrafted by one of the other teams in a position to do so. I’ll also send along links to video clips of said players (if available) if you want to offer feedback.

This leaves picks 44, 55, 68, 70, and 102 to resolve. With signability being up in the air on so many players, it’s making the HS ranks a little difficult to decipher beyond the top players. Drafting a player who doesn’t ultimately sign does reflect negatively on the class, and I’m trying to stick to real-life budgetary constraints.

I actually have a pretty good feeling for what I’m doing at pick 55. I’ve got a player of preference lined up and three alternates, all of whom should be signable at that point (these will also be disclosed via e-mail). The pick I’ve had the most trouble with is 44 - with $900k+ to spend there, it’s tempting to look prep, but we may also need that money for my plans at 55 and later. A relatively safe sign would be welcome, but at the same time I recognize that it may be a great opportunity for us to add an impressive upside talent. The one thing that I know I do not want to do is add a prep catcher - they are very rarely good news. The best two in the class are Mathieson and Coulter, for what it is worth, and I would expect them to go in this range.

Let’s talk about 68/70. A couple of players who have gotten talk as upside plays lately are Florida HS OF Max White and Delaware HS OF Jamie Jarmon. Both are raw, both have high upsides, and there’s a chance that both will be available here. I think most will look towards Jarmon in the late second-to-third rounds, so I think we might just jump the crowd and take him off the board at 68. JC OF Andrew Toles is also a distinct possibility there. I’m also a fan of the two New York HS kids, Sanchez and Rodriguez, and the Georgia 1B Olson. Any of those big bats could be signable in this range.

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread-3 UPDATED MAY 19

by mrkupe on May 20, 2025 8:44 AM EDT reply actions