Prospect Notes: March 8, 2012: Implications of Lucas Giolito Injury

So I figured I would share it here as well:

I think this could be an excellent test case for a team considering going over the spending limit, even up to the 10% threshhold. Let’s just say he’s still available at pick 14, for the Reds. Giolito will have much more potential than anyone else available at that spot, so under normal circumstances it would be a no brainer. The Reds also figure to have a much better season this year in the weakened NL Central, so they could pick anywhere from 20-30 next year.

With that in mind. Wouldn’t Giolito possibly be worth a 14th and 25th round pick? Also, losing a first round pick means you’re not spending first round money next year, so the amount you go over-slot this year you’d theorectially be recouping next year. This has all the markers of a potential wash against the new draft rules.

Saying a ligament is sprained is just an easier way of saying it was loosened and/or partially torn. In the literal sense, a fully torn UCL is “just” a a Grade III sprain. It sounds like the exact same situation that someone like Arodys Vizcaino went through a few years ago. Certainly raises a long-term health red flag and might signal an eventual move to the bullpen, but he’d certainly be worth the gamble later on in the first round.

….started to like him - thus the injury.

Is Gausmann’s as far as I’m concerned.

Carlos Correa it is then.

….for me, as far as looking at film of Giolitio, but is his command not ver ygood? I know I’m talking about a 17 year old, but he was having a lot of trouble throwing any of his pitches for strikes. On the contrary, someone here said that he recently had a streak of 30+ (?) innings without a walk. Anybody with some thoughts?

Another option would be to still take him in the top 3, monitor his health, and if he doesn’t look good, just take the tradeable #4 overall pick next year.

…I’ve got to agree with Matt G on this one. This kid is way too talented to miss because of “whatever” type of strain this is. Even if he needed TJ surgery, he is still only 17 and would have spent a few years in the minors anyway. You’ve got to take the risk because the reward could be extremely high in a few years or so (likely 2015/16). The more he falls, the more someone is going to steal him.

Teams like KC who would normally like at Giolito could be a college pitcher like Gausman, Zimmer, or Appel or an upside HS like Buxton or Correa. Don’t think Zunino will make it out of top 4. Don’t know if a team in that position can risk totally missing on top 10 pick. Teams with multiple picks who are lower in draft are perfect options. If I were the Reds or Cards, I’d do whatever needed to (minus giving up picks in future) to secure Giolito.