Prospect of the Day: Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros

by John Sickels on May 31, 2025 10:16 AM EDT

Prospect of the Day: Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros

In late May of 2008, Jordan Lyles was a high school pitcher from Hartsville, South Carolina, with a strong commitment to his home state college squad, the South Carolina Gamecocks. Most teams saw him as a great athlete, interesting and projectable with a mid-to-upper-80s fastball, but likely headed to college. However, the Houston Astros followed him more closely than most teams, saw his fastball get up to 90 MPH in pre-draft workouts, and had a better read on his signability. They selected him in the supplemental first round of the '08 draft, 38^th overall. Three years later, he's about to make his major league debut.

     After a solid '08 rookie ball performance, Lyles posted a sharp 167/38 K/BB in 145 innings with a 3.24 ERA for Low-A Lexington in '09, earning strong reviews for his command. He jumped directly to Double-A in 2010 and didn't skip a beat, posting a 115/35 K/BB in 127 innings with a 3.12 ERA. He had some problems in six Triple-A starts (5.40 ERA, 48 hits in 32 innings but a 22/11 K/BB), but at age 19 that was understandable. He's had no problems there this year, with a 3.20 ERA in 10 starts for Oklahoma City, with a 41/16 K/BB in 59 innings.
      Lyles doesn't have exceptional velocity, working at 89-93 MPH. However, the fastball works well due to the contrast with his slider and changeup, both of which are excellent. His command is very sharp, and his strong overall level of athleticism helps him repeat his mechanics and stay healthy.
     While Lyles isn't going to be a power-armed rotation anchor ace in the mold of Roger Clemens or Roy Halladay, he projects as a consistent strike-throwing efficiency expert in the mold of a Jon Lieber or Brad Radke. He's come a long way in three years and while some adjustment problems are possible, Lyles should have a long and successful career assuming continued good health. I rated him as a Grade B+ prospect, ranked Number 17 on my pre-season Top 50 Pitching Prospects list in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book.

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Lyles

Anyone care to project what he might do this year in the MLB?

by Tedaldtada29 on May 31, 2025 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

He's going to get hammered

I’m a huge Stros fan and a huge fan of Lyles.

He doesn’t have the stuff to be getting called up at the age of 20. He dominated every level of the minors, but only after getting acclimated after a few starts. I think he was figuring people out due to his phenomenal control. But, he has not struck out many people at AA and AAA for lack of stuff.

Expect to see a lot of contact and few missed bats. I feel bad for the kid because they rushed him.

by Raidas77 on May 31, 2025 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I disagree. He looked good enough in spring training to be a quality starter. Overall his stuff is above avg.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on May 31, 2025 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

i disagree with that

he may have better-than-average stuff, but he doesn’t have the consistency, command, or control to succeed just yet. He could put up a good start or two against some bad teams (i.e. the cubs), but he should be sent back down until the start of next year to avoid any negative results.

by another know it all on May 31, 2025 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Raidas77 is spot on

There’s no way I logically support the idea of this kid doing any better than Teheran did who’s arguably the best pitching prospect in anybody’s system btw, and was rocky in his outings at best. I don’t doubt he has upside but he has no business being called up for anything more than an emergency spot start. He doesn’t even belong up here in September.

"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"

by Wright of passage on May 31, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think he'll get demolished

I tend to believe that guys with good command, mound presence, and pitchability have an easier time making the jump to the majors than guys who lack those things but have good stuff.

But being able to pitch in the majors is, of course, different from being able to excel in the majors. I agree he won’t strike out too many batters. I expect a mediocre but not disastrous rookie season from him.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on May 31, 2025 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Has his slider made a jump

I saw in ST that he was struggling with the breaking pitch. I evaluated his game vs the O’s
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/3/15/2052528/my-breakdown-of-lyles

I think his Fb Ch are excellent. I am very excited to see if he can utilize a breaking pitch.
I am excited to see him pitch today though I do not think it is smart for him to pitch before sept this year.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on May 31, 2025 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

john ely??

his stuff control and command reminds me of john ely

by matthewmafa on May 31, 2025 1:31 PM EDT reply actions

The kid has never pitched an entire season at any level. I don’t understand the rush to promote a kid that was doing well in AAA, but was not tearing the league up by any means. The jump from AAA to MLB is enormous and the kid isn’t ready, no matter how mature beyond his years.

by Raidas77 on May 31, 2025 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

Yea

What’s the rush?

by Braves24 on May 31, 2025 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Have you tried watching the Astros?

I’m reaching for any straw of excitement I can find.

by lhb98 on May 31, 2025 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

haha

I can understand that, but there is no reason to speed up his service time clock. If he’s ready, then he’s ready but don’t rush him.

by Braves24 on May 31, 2025 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

im giving lyles two starts in my fantasy league this year.

I expect him to get ripped but I’m willing to take the chance.

Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN

by Nnamdi Asomugha on May 31, 2025 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

This guy looks pretty good.

But with his speed being low and him being so young i see this as a risky move. He did do pretty well although the minors though with only minor bumps in AAA

by Jt Malley on May 31, 2025 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

Don't get it

all this guy has done is produce except for a handful of AAA starts at the end of his 19 year old season and all he gets is flack about how terrible he is. There is more to pitching than a 95 mph reading on a gun and this guy has it.

"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."

by Da.aron on May 31, 2025 9:34 PM EDT reply actions

7+ IP, 2 RA tonight

Both runs score in the 8th after Lyles throws the ball away on a bunt attempt, and the Astro bullpen does its typical job of torching the village.

by lhb98 on May 31, 2025 10:09 PM EDT reply actions

I watched him pitch tonight

Without getting into his line (which was obviously good) I’ll say that he clearly still has things which he could stand to work on at AAA. His curve was inconsistent and he missed his spots more than I’ve seen him do in starts where he is really locked in.

…with that said, his poise and pitchability were fantastic. He used all four pitches, both sides of the plate, and changed the eye level frequently. That was probably what I came off most impressed with. Plus his ability to get ahead of most batters, and throw strikes without fear when behind to avoid a walk.

The other thing which impressed me is that while his curve was inconsistent, he threw several downright filthy ones for swings and misses. I’m talking 60, 70 on the scouting scale—lots of movement, late break, diving down out of the zone and fooling good MLB hitters. Two pitches in particular he threw to strike out Starlin Castro swinging (10% K-rate on the season) were extremely impressive.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on May 31, 2025 11:39 PM EDT reply actions