Cardinals MOD #1 UPDATED - Recent History

by Dttl89 on May 19, 2025 1:46 AM EDT

Jdizzy my email is dttl89ATgmailDOTcom. I could definitely use some input from you

Hey everybody, welcome to the Cardinals MOD! I’ll be updating everyone on the state of the Cardinals draft in preparation for the mock on June 4th. There will be a number of contributors throughout the process. Let’s begin by reviewing the recent history of the Cardinals draft and assessing the Cards current position in the draft.

2010: The Cards took IF Zack Cox (25) in what was a marginally surprising move that was pretty well accepted by most of Cardinal Nation. Cox was a guy whose draft stock fell a tad because signability concerns and worries about his ability to stick at 3rd. Most blogsters at the time felt the Cardinals lucked out with this pick. So far Cox is hitting a combined .335/.362/.439 between rookie ball and A+. Other picks in the top 100 include RHP Seth Blair (46), RHP Tyrell Jenkins (50), and RHP Jordan Swagerty (75). I’ll include OF/Heartbreaker Austin Wilson (379) as a notable here. He turned down some serious cash from the Cards to pursue his education at Stanford.

2009: RHP Shelby Miller (19) was the first pick for the Cardinals in 2009. Miller was another guy that fell, and has been nothing short of spectacular since entering the Cardinals system. He’s been the top rated Cards minor league prospect and has showed some pretty spectacular results with a 3.87 K/BB ratio through two levels. Other picks in the top 100 include C/RHP Robert Stock (67) and RHP Joe Kelly (98)

2008: The Cards first pick in 2008 was 1B/3B Brett Wallace. He fell a bit due to concerns about which position he would play professionally and his athleticism, even though he was widely accepted as a very advanced college bat. The Cardinals essentially managed to turn Wallace into Matt Holliday. Woot. Wallace had a .304/.375/.487 line in the minors and has hit .266/.342/.387 in almost 300 PAs for Houston over two years. Other top 100 draftees: include RHP Lance Lynn (39), OF Shane Peterson (59), and IF Niko Vasquez (91).

2007: The 2007 draft was frustrating for many Cardinals fans. The selection of SS Pete Kozma (18) was considered a stretch by most. Kozma possesses a very wide skill set, but he doesn’t really have any standout tools. Kozma had a.241/.316/.349 line in nearly 2000 PAs in the minor leagues and was just called up to St. Louis. Other top 100 draftees include: RHP Clayton Mortensen (36), RHP David Kopp (71), and RHP Jess Todd (82). I’ll also include current IF Dan Descalso (112) as a notable.

2006: RHP Adam Ottavino (30) was the top pick for the Cards in the 2006 draft. He seemed like a textbook pick for the Cardinals at the time since he was a boring right handed SP. He struck out a few more batters than the Birds are typically interested in, but that was overlooked since those K’s were against college hitting. His performance in his pro career thus far has been pretty disappointing, posting a career walk rate of 4.3/9 that has only increased with age. Other top 100 draftees include: RHP Chris Perez (42), LHP Brad Furnish (54), OF John Jay (74), and 1B/OF Mark Hamilton (76).

The Cardinals choose at 22, 79, and 109 and are in a great position this year since they have traditionally drafted pitchers who coerce ground balls at the college level. There are plenty of guys like that to choose from. The other major line of thought right now is that the Cardinals will take an OFer in the first round, which is very plausible. The Birds are shorter on picks this year since they have no supplemental round picks, and I would imagine they will continue to spend quite a bit on picks they feel they can attain lots of value from. I could see the Cards snapping up anyone who is high on their board but manages to fall to the later first round.

Right now, I plan on taking the best available player on the board. In the following weeks, we’ll break down probable picks in the Cardinals draft positions and put together a draft board. I’m looking forward to the experience, and I hope you do the same.

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Read More: Matt Holliday (LF - STL), Clayton Mortensen (P - COL), Adam Ottavino (P - STL), Chris Perez (P - CLE), Mark Hamilton (1B - STL), Lance Lynn (P - STL), Jess Todd (P - NYY), Brett Wallace (1B - HOU), Brad Furnish (P - CWS), Daniel Descalso (2B - STL), David Kopp (P - STL), Robert Stock (C - STL), Peter Kozma (SS - STL), Shelby Miller (P - STL), Shane Peterson (LF - OAK), Joe Kelly (P - STL), Jordan Swagerty (P - STL), St. Louis Cardinals

Comments

Well

I think a lot if card nation was pleased with the cox signing, but not terribly surprised. Miller in 09 was probably more “surprusing”, in that they snagged a guy that both fell AND was a HS arm. Then in ’10, they did that seperately (cox as the falling guy, jenkins as the HS arm). That means that in ’11, i dont think we should be so stubbornly held to thinking luhnow &co will choose a signable collegiate pick at #1.

by siddfynch on May 19, 2025 2:49 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Sorry about typos.

Tiny little mobile screen for Alaskan-sized hands. The gin and tonics apparently did not help.

by siddfynch on May 19, 2025 2:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Sorry about typos.

Tiny little mobile screen for Alaskan-sized hands. The gin and tonics apparently did not help.

by siddfynch on May 19, 2025 2:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

If anything

I think it just means that we’re willing to sign guys that have signability issues…and we can afford it.

check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos

by Dttl89 on May 19, 2025 6:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

A few years ago, mocks like this usually warned the cards would be unlikely to be in the hunt for overslot gambles early…but i dont think its safe to say that anymore.

by siddfynch on May 20, 2025 4:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Dttl89

I will get you an email with my thoughts. I have been following the draft for years now and specifically the Cards. I have been a lifelong Cards fan and started getting into the prospect scene about 5-6 years ago hardcore. I also am a contributor mainly focusing on the prospect arena for www.redbirddugout.com. Hope to help in any way I can. I love this stuff!

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on May 19, 2025 9:11 AM EDT reply actions

Cards Draft Strategy

OK…here is a little rundown for the Cards typical draft strategy/trends (focusining on the Top 3 Rds of the draft since that is relevant for this effort) since Luhnow has been running the draft since the ’05 draft. We will also focus on the the last few draft strategies more than the older ones as it incorporates Mo being the GM and the need for more upside since the depth is there now.

1) One of the obvious trends we have seen over the years is we like power arm relievers earlier in the draft than most teams (some might has been starters in college but projected as back of the bullpen arms int he pros). Some of the arms have included Chris Perez, Scott Bittle, Jordan Swaggerty (could stick as a starter but questionable) and Joe Kelly (the one on this list that has the best chance to stick as a starter). So there is a decent chance if the right power armed reliever is on the board in the 2nd or 3rd Rd we might snag him

2) Cards love their sinking FB projectable college arms early int eh draft (AKA Lance Lynn, Clayton Mortensen and Seth Blair. With pitching being talented and deep in the 2011 draft we are almost certainly going to snag one of these types of arms in the 2nd or 3rd Rds

3) Cards value defensive focused middle of the field position players early (Rasmus, Jay, T. Greene, Kozma, Stock, Stanley and R. Jackson). In fact very few of our early position player picks have been anything else. With plenty of talent in middle of the field projects 1S-3 Rd picks there might be a few on our rador for the 2nd and 3rd Rds.

4) In the 1st Rd we tend to snag guys that fall for whatever reason (Wallace, Cox and Miller the last 3 yrs). I would almost guarantee that this happens again this year.

5) In terms of budget we are usually in the middle of the pack but we upped our budget last year (and it was needed with so many compensation picks). I get the impression that we will be in the upper 1/3 of spending in 2011 as well. I get this feeling as we have depth and need upside. So typically it will be guys that fall due to price tag that are the upside guys so if we are looking that direction then we will have to spend some dough.

So that is the key to the history (past 5 years) of the Cards draft. I would be surprised if we change our strategy too much this year but might see us going a little more focused on high risk/reward players to get the upside to go with the depth that we have built in our system.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on May 19, 2025 4:10 PM EDT reply actions

This is all a very nice summary

Well done.

by siddfynch on May 20, 2025 4:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

strategies change

Jdizzidy- I have to disagree with you on the strategies the team will take. I think the Cardinals are now shying away from the strategies that you mentioned. When Luhnow took over the system was in complete shambels and his first priority was to rebuild the system and make it non disgraceful. He did this by taking lower ceiling high floor players. College right handed pitchers, relievers and toolsyish college outfielders. Now that our system is pretty much full I think they have a new strategy. They seem ok with paying for BPA in the first round see 2008-2010. And taking guys in 2-5 that were once seen as first round talent but have “flaws” or holes in there game. Bittle could have been a first rounder was he not hurt. Kelly was in the Ottavino mold toolsy college pitchers that weren’t getting the results in college. Ryan Jackson was considered Top 2 round talent in HS before he showed he couldn’t hit well. Robert Stock was a wunderkid as a 12 year old and threw HS.

I don’t suspect they will continue with the old blue print of fast moving pitchers. He already have tons of pitching talent in the minors and taking a fast moving college guy defeats the purpose, heck, Lance Lynn, may be stuck at Memphis for another year of 2 because no spots in the rotation are open. If we take a pticher early it will be one with alot of upside that falls due to signability. Think Archie Bradley or a Dillion Howard who has serious upside and may be BPA at 22. If they aren’t available I see us going for a toolsy OF i.e. Derek Fisher, Brandon Nimmo or Larry Greene. Greene worked out at Busch a few days ago. Fisher is in the mold of Mike Trout who we were gong to draft had Miller not fell and Nimmo presents upside in the OF that we haven’t had in awhile(other than Taveras).

I also see us taking a 1st round talent that hasn’t produced yet such as Zach Cone at 79.

With Pujols potentially getting alot of money for a logn time Dewitt and management have to know that its essential to get cost controlled impact players, and the only way to do that is to draft the best possible talent.

I have the Cardinals taking Howard at 22, Cone at 79 and Burdi at 109

by scadder21 on May 29, 2025 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Well

I stated the history of our strategy and then stated we will most likely go a little more upside this year due to the depth. So not sure what you are arguing. I still think its HIGHLY likely we pick 1 SP that is an advanced projectable sinking FB type in the first 3-5 rounds. I fully understand that some of the guys you mentioned were once thought of as higher upsides (Bittle, Jackson, etc) but there are reasons why they were picked lower than once anticipated (injury, ineffective, big question marks, etc). With all that said I suspect we will pick a player that falls some in the 1st Rd like we have done the last few years and then depending on who is on the board in the 2nd and 3rd Rds adjust as needed. I hope we get some upside offensive talent as we are lacking but I still see 1 of the picks being either a strong defensive middle of the field type or a projectable righty SP. We have never been willing to break the bank on the draft but we also will pick a guy or 2 high in the draft that will take serious money to sign. Maybe I am way off base here but I took our history of drafts, analysis of the Cards Org and how it has changed over the last 5 years and just a gut feeling. So you can’t argue that I am just using my own personal preference on what the Cards “SHOULD” do. Its a well thought out and educated strategy.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on May 30, 2025 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Wasn’t saying you were wrong was just adding input about how they may vary their strategy this year as opposed to years past.

by scadder21 on May 30, 2025 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

OK

I still think its highly unlikely they will do a 180 in their draft strategy. The last few years they have gone a little more upside than in previous years so I hope that trend continues. So there will be some of the trends I stated above that they won’t steer away from but possibly tweak a bit. It might be that instead of taking a safer bet projectable sinking FB RHP they will go with higher upside sinking FB RHP as it still fits the mold of what they teach and want in players. We will also continue to get strong armed back of the bullpen types earlier in the draft (Top 5 Rds). But to say they will shy away from all these strategies is basically saying they are going to take a whole new strategy as an organization which just isn’t the case IMO.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on May 31, 2025 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

One think that we have to take into account is that it’s very possible that if Pujols leaves TLR and Duncan will be gone next year two. I don’t think the organization will be constrained to the type of players the manager and pitching coaches like when most likely by the time the person who is drafted this year gets to the Bigs we will have a whole new coaching staff. Not saying they will totally change things, but I think Luhnows first mission was to restock the system to a point where it wasn’t embarrasing. He’s succeed there now I think his next mission is to draft more potential Impact players.

by scadder21 on Jun 1, 2025 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Understood

And I totally agree with your logic. But while TLR and Dunc are under contract with the Cards they will stick to this strategy/philosophy. So if/when those 2 are no longer in STL it could swing the draft strategy quite a bit depending on who comes in as the next manager/pitching/hitting coaches. But for the 2011 draft I don’t see the overall philosophy changing much. But I agree they will go for more upside since we have depth now. But some of the general philosophies of types of players, etc will not change IMO.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on Jun 2, 2025 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Austin Wilson

Never turned down an offer whatsoever. Because evidently neither the Cardinals or Wilson’s representation ever exchanged figures.

Which was pretty much par for the course, because Wilson had continuously said he was going to Stanford no matter what.

Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.

by CoolCat23 on May 20, 2025 7:38 AM EDT reply actions

Correct

All indications (at least publicized) was no numbers were ever exchanged. The the Wilson’s did heavily consider their stance after he was drafted and treated like royalty by the Cards Org.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on May 20, 2025 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

2006 and 2007

are completely lost drafts it looks like at this point.

The only guy you could call a major league regular that the Cards got out of either is Chris Perez.

Awful. Especially when there really was no excuse for taking Pete Kozma 30 or 40 picks before he was projected in 2007, and taking Adam Ottavino at all.

I mean how many raw, twenty-one year old, Div 1 pitchers ever have long and effective major league careers. You could count them on one hand.

Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.

by CoolCat23 on May 20, 2025 7:41 AM EDT reply actions

Fair

Thats a very fair statement but what you also need to consider is some guys from those draft classes that either recently arrived or haven’t arrived yet. Jon Jay has shown he can hold down an everyday job (just not flashy). Allen Craig could hit enough to justify an everyday job (he hit at every level of the minors). Tommy Pham certainly has potential to be a super athletic everyday OF as he had a breakthru last year (he was very raw when drafted). Luke Gregerson is an everyday player with at minimum SU potential in the Pads bullpen (was traded in the Khalil Greene trade - BLAH!). Descalso is just getting his first opportunity to play in the bigs and showing he could stick as a starting 2B that hits enough. Adam Reifer has closer stuff and broke through last year in the minors but unfortunately is out for the year in 2011. He will be an assett to someones bullpen. Adron Chambers is a guy that I believe will be an everyday OF and a leadoff man. Just hasn’t arrived yet.

So with all that said that only staples in the bigs today that are regulars are Perez and Gregerson but there are plenty of others that could be productive big league players. I will agree though that no star power or anything close to it was in 2006 or 2007 drafts.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on May 20, 2025 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Kozma

Minor quibble, but I’m pretty sure I remember reading at the time the Cards had some intel that Toronto was planning to take him soon (before the Cards picked again). That wouldn’t excuse them for being drastically mistaken about a player’s ability, but it would excuse them for “reaching.” I like not taking a guy early that you could get later, but if he’s the one you want and you know he won’t be there, you’ve got to take him when you can.

Again, minor quibble.

by siddfynch on May 20, 2025 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions