Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays, 52 homers

well, when you hit

almost as many homers 548 at bats as you did in your previous 1750 at bats, then rumors about PED use is inevitable. His slugging was never over .420 before and this year it is .619. His OPS was never over .757 and this year it is 1.000. He is currently 36 home runs over his previous high. Whether it is true or not, there is absolutely no way to explain his increase in production other than PEDs. I’ve heard that he changed his hitting approach and is trying to pull everything, but that doesn’t get the ball over the fence 46 more times than in your career.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 29, 2025 9:11 PM EDT reply actions

errr 36 not 46

by Looney4baseball on Sep 29, 2025 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

egads.

It should read 36 more times than the previous high in your career.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 29, 2025 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions

there isn't proof that taking steroids would help you hit 36 more times either

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 30, 2025 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

I didnt say steroids because

that would show up in a test and he’d fail it. Some HGH and other PEDs do not yet as far as I read last. There’s plenty of proof that steroids help you hit more home runs. Look at Brady Anderson, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, etc. If it didn’t help, they wouldn’t have taken it and hit lots more home runs than they would have.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions

there is absolutely no way to explain his increase in production other than PEDs.

Well that solves it everyone

Please lock this thread. There’s no point in continuing this discussion.

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Sep 30, 2025 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

you may as well

because that’s probably why. Where are all the other plausable answers?

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

when does the 50 game suspension begin?

by bunner on Sep 30, 2025 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

there is absolutely no way to explain his increase in production other than PEDs

Steroids don’t work like that. At all.

by handknit on Sep 30, 2025 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

oh yes they do.

Steroids help increase muscle mass and strength, which increases power.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Bautista hit 10 HRs in September last year. Let me guess; he stated roiding in August and magically one month later gained all of this new found power?

I want whatever steroids you guys think these baseball players are taking. From the sound of it, you inject a few times and poof you’re going to start hitting homers a week later.

by metafour on Sep 30, 2025 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions

hmmm got assumptions?

I never said he was on steroids, I said he MAY be on PEDs. PEDs are not limited to steroids. I also never said when he started taking whatever he may be taking because no one could know. The additional power one gets from PEDs has to show up sometime if there is an increase, so it apparently started in September of last year. Is it that hard to fathom that he may be on something?

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

It's also not hard to fathom

that he made a mechanical change last year and it took hold in September.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

A mechanical change responsible for

36 more home runs than his previous high? That’s one hell of a mechanical change, I’d say.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

well hes gotten full playing time now

had he had full playing time in years past, maybe he would have hit 30 in a season

by matthewmafa on Oct 1, 2025 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

he has over 500 ab at age 26

and hit less than 20 HR. Maybe he would have hit 30, but that’s still not closr to 54.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

C’mon dude give the guy some credit. Baseball tonight just had a piece on him how he adjusted his swing and is now hitting the ball out in front of the plate rather than letting it get further back in his swing. Hitting the ball in front of the plate = pulling = power. Stop being so ignorant.

by packimop on Oct 1, 2025 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Ignorant?

You believe an increase of 36 homers is simply because he’s pulling the ball? Talk about ignorant. His homeruns are averaging over 390 feet, so they would be out of the park in most cases unless he was hitting them to dead center field. I never said he didn’t deserve credit, he definitely does.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

You have presented no argument except "oh, come on"

in this entire thread.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

what argument is there for PEDs except

putting up ridiculous stats that you have never done before and likely will never do again?

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Evidence that someone purchased, possessed or

took them would be a good start. Evidence of sudden and unusual physical growth, perhaps. Whispers from anyone else in baseball besides a few sportswriters and fans. How about ANYTHING at all besides “oh, man, look at all those home runs”?

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 2, 2025 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Roger Maris

Hit 61 one year when he’d never hit more than 39 before. The only explanation is he used PEDs.

by seabass on Oct 1, 2025 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

if Maris hit

117 home runs then you’d have an equal comparison of what Bautista is doing this year since he’s hit 3x the amount of home runs more this year than in any other season in his career.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

If Maris were only a part time player before that year this argument might make more sense.

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by alskor on Oct 1, 2025 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

whats your reply to this??

oh come on??

by matthewmafa on Oct 1, 2025 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

seeing how I never posted "oh, come on"

it’s not likely to happen now. Bautista was a part time player because he wasn’t very good. He had a season of over 500ab and didnt hit more than 20 home runs. There’s absolutely nothing to prove he’s used PED’s and there’s absolutely nothing to prove than an adjustment in his mechanics have resulted in such an increase in power.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s absolutely nothing to prove he’s used PEDs

Period.

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by alskor on Oct 3, 2025 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, not really.

What I’m trying to point out is that flukish seasons have been happening for a while. There are other players this has happened too as well - George Foster, Wade Boggs, Davey Johnson, etc.

Also, there’s no concrete proof that taking steroids will directly lead to a player hitting more home runs. This study is a good read on that subject: http://steroids-and-baseball.com/.

Basically, what I’m saying is that I don’t think it’s fair to assume someone’s taking steroids just because of a power spike later in their career. It happened before there were steroids, it happened before there was testing, and it’s happening after there is testing.

by seabass on Oct 1, 2025 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Wade Boggs hit 24 HR once. STEROIDS! OF COURSE!

by Humbled Fan on Oct 1, 2025 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Boggs hit his HRs in 1987

the year the ball was juiced.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah good point John!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

if there are so many people questioning PED use of Bautista and Raul Ibanez last year

than what does that say about MLB’s drug testing policy…?

Yuck and ugh……..

I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!

Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 29, 2025 9:21 PM EDT reply actions

Has to be questioned

It’s not the 52 homeruns for me, I can accept career years seemingly out of nowhere if the skills support the breakout via opportunity-peak etc but I look at this guys PX level throughout his career and he barely goes over league average at 115-120 and I say where did the skill increase come from- 50 homers the skill set of Pujoles, Tex, Papi in his prime PX close to 200 or 2x league average - gus with 115 have a career year of 26 not 52.

by ribman on Sep 29, 2025 9:44 PM EDT reply actions

I don't understand why people cannot accept outliers for home runs.

Every baseball season features wild outlier performance of many kinds. Pitchers suddenly change a grip, arm slot, add a pitch and take off, including many guys who there was really no buzz about before. Someone can suddenly boost their batting average by over 100 points and we don’t blink. A pitcher can add a few mile to their fastball, gee, that’s neat.

But hit home runs? It simply must be steroids. Joe Posnanski had a good post about this a week or two ago. There have been outlier seasons for home runs long before there were steroids in baseball. Frankie Piliere posted an article talking about Bautista’s change in approach and swing mechanics. Should I just think that Frankie Pilier, an experienced scout, has no idea what he’s talking about?

If the topic is home runs, the answer must be steroids.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 29, 2025 10:19 PM EDT reply actions

People can accept outliers for home runs

No one questioned Joe Mauer last season when he hit 28 after having a previous career high of 13. But when you go from a career high of 16 to 52, then yes there will be questions. He had 59 HRs in 1754 ABs (one every 29.7 ABs). This season he has nearly doubled career his HR total in 548 ABs (one ever 10.5 ABs). I could see a stance change account for a good powe increase, but 3x more power? I’m not buying it.

by nyy601 on Sep 29, 2025 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

So, somehow

Only Bautista is getting away with taking steroids and hitting HRs in bunches this year. Ok.

Have you read Piliere’s report? Why is it so unbelievable that a player with power could change his swing and put everything together?

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 30, 2025 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to mention get some legit playing time for the first time

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 30, 2025 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions

I haven't seen pilieres report

But I do remember very thorough analyses of other breakout seasons, analyses that certainly seemed to add plausibility to the increased home run rate. Luis Gonzalez and Brady Anderson both had extensive breakdowns written about their new approaches, for example.

The problem is, guys are also adjusting their approaches all the time, with no noticeable result. Sometimes the “explanation” is really just unfounded post hoc analysis that sounds great, but turns out to be inaccurate or the wrong explanation in hindsight.

Didn’t bautista have a strong finish to 2009? If he began his new approach back then, I’m more convinced.

by siddfynch on Sep 30, 2025 2:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He had 10 HRs last September

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 30, 2025 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Ok, I read it

I think piliere underscores my point above on his first sentence, saying that when a player posts a monster season out of nowhere, people reach for explanations. He then goes on to throw his back out reaching for all the ones that everyone did for Brady Anderson, roger Clemens(he just works harder!), etc.

Bautista may be legit. But this swing mechanics exlanation doesn’t seem any different from many others over time. I like the big-picture assessmentore at this point, just looking at aging and develoent patterns to see how far from the pack he really is. If he keeps it up next year, I’ll believe more on chalking it up entirely to mechanics. Or better prep. Or video. Or grandmas cookies. Or new visualization techniques.

by siddfynch on Sep 30, 2025 2:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Who said Bautista is the only one getting away with anything?

Some products are undetectable with current testing. That means there are still probably a bunch taking something. I don’t know, why is it so unbelievable that a player with power could change his swing and put it all together? Probably because every time that was done the last 15-20 years it was due to some PED maybe? Players just dont go from 16 to 52 home runs.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Um

Probably because every time that was done the last 15-20 years it was due to some PED maybe?

Do you have some evidence of this you’d like to share? Again, read some of the posts in this thread about fly ball rates, and HR/FB rates. You’re focusing on one stat without looking at the larger picture.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 30, 2025 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

look at some of the players

that have hit 50 home runs in the last 15-20 years. Brady Anderson, McGwire, Sosa, ARod, Bonds, Ortiz, etc. There’s been more questionable players than ones that have done it without question. I’ve read the flyball/HR rate posts and the ones about his mechanics changes. It’s not like those are new ideas/explanations why player A is hitting more home runs. His slugging is about .200 higher than his best and his OPS is close to .250 better than his best. His doubles rate hasn’t really increased, as the last time he had 500abs he had 36 doubles. The thing that has changed is his HR/FB rate, which has increased all other related stats. Balls that were outs are now HRs. How’d that happen?

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

50 HR hitters

Are there really more questionable ones than ones who have done it without question:

With Questions:
1. Anderson
2. Bonds
3. McGwire
4. Sosa
5. Arod
6. Ortiz

Without Questions
1. Andruw Jones
2. Griffey
3. Luis Gonzalez
4. Greg Vaughn
5. Belle
6. Thome
7. Howard
8. Cecil Fielder
9. Prince Fielder

by King Billy Royal on Oct 1, 2025 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Luis Gonzalez

I’m fairly certain he belongs on the VERY questionable list….

It’s also worth noting that everybody on the without question list was either a) a hulking slugger or b) a mega-prospect at one point with the exception of Greg Vaughn.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I kind of agree with Luis

But that still gives the “no question” side more hitters.

by King Billy Royal on Oct 1, 2025 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Indeed

I’d never actually thought to list them like this, and obviously, the caveat that all players from the Steroid Era are suspect applies, but going by the conventional wisdom, there were a surprisingly high number of clean 50HR guys.

Just to go through ’em (this is more for fun than it is critical analysis):
1. Andruw Jones: this is the sort of fluke 50 season one might buy. A former mega prospect with terrific power (30-35HR annually) spends the winter working with Willie Mays and promptly smacks a career high at 28 years old. Hit 40 the next year before letting himself go.

2. Griffey: Actually fits the “profile” better than most care to admit, but by all accounts, was loathe to lift a weight, much less a needle. I’ll buy the CW on him, too.

3. Gonzalez: I mean, have you SEEN this guy’s arms? The post-30 power spike? Rumors galore. Apparently a heckuva good guy, though.

4. Greg Vaughn: sticks out in this list in 1 big way: he was neither a very big guy, nor was he ever a superprospect AFAIK. He just kinda come out of nowhere…twice. I have my doubts, but I’ve never read or heard anything even remotely indicting. Strange how he is being lost to history? I’ll stick him on the “no reasonable questions” list.

5. Belle: This is a guy who REALLY fit the profile, except that Jose Canseco said he’s clean and Jose Canseco, farce that he is, has proven to be the only man to come out of the mess speaking the truth. Incidentally, Canseco is also the biggest reason why I think Rickey was clean.

6. Thome: Everybody says he’s clean, and he just looks like a “big” guy.

7. Howard: Supposedly clean as well, and the dramatic weight loss/keeping most of his power would certainly bode in his favor. Also, came up entirely in the testing era (minors/majors)

8. Cecil Fielder: a monster of a man who did it in Japan and was always touted as having 80 power. Sometimes people just put it together (Frank Howard anyone?)

9. Prince Fielder: was hitting home runs at Yankee Stadium when he was 12. Just a terrific hitter, and no reason to believe he’s on anything other than french fries. Lots of ’em (he is a vegetarian afterall.)

Under the precedent of Greg Vaughn, I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Bautista. I’m not going to discount the possibility he’s using (I think it’s as likely as any other explanation) but, stranger things have happened so barring a positive test, I’ll accept this season. It is worth noting that there were plenty of really juicy guys who never quite made it to 50 (Giles, Buhner, Vaughn, Manny.)

This was definitely a cool, new way to think of the Steroid Era and performances in that context. Kind of a new perspective, no?

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

You can say all those are without question?

Gonzalez to me is questonable at the least. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 2-3 more of those were PED aided.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions

What evidence do you have?

What allegations do you have against any of these guys except for Luis? Which guys do you think were PED aided and why?

by King Billy Royal on Oct 1, 2025 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

no one has any evidence

and I don’t have a clue which may have been PED aided. That is why I said I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 2-3 more of those were PED aided. Its not like it’s going to come out anytime soon, since MLB likes to keep the whole steroid era under wraps.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Who is deciding

who is questionable? On what evidence?

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Also

You stated “There’s been more questionable players than ones that have done it without question”. I think it is obvious now that your statement is untrue.

by King Billy Royal on Oct 1, 2025 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

considering

Sosa, McGwire and ARod did it multiple times, more often than not, it was a player that was on something.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

You are changing your statement

You clearly stated that more questionable players than ones that have done it without questions. That is not the same as the number of times it was accomplished.

by King Billy Royal on Oct 1, 2025 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I looked at the amount of times it was done

and went off that. My apologies for the incorrect statement and for not being as perfect as most in here think they are.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

lol

Luis Gonzalez has a very high probability of having done steroids, how is that not obvious? Also Greg Vaughn seems like it, though that’s just a feeling to me.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Oct 2, 2025 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Home runs are not a great measure of raw power

That’s why we have ISO—isolated power. Jose Bautista’s ISO last season was .173. This season it is .358. That’s just barely overly double, not triple, and is a similar percentage increase to the Joe Mauer’s.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 30, 2025 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes this is very strange, I think the only way you can explain it is if you think the injuries/lost development/lack of playing time prevented him from hitting 20ish hr’s in years past, combined with being in his late 20’s, a changed swing and an absolute peak year, this might explain something like 37 HR’s, but 52! lol ,who knows. I don’t think there has been a weirder HR season since Brady Anderson went from a career high of 21 to 50, and that was steroids all the way.

by THESWAMI6 on Sep 29, 2025 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

When you almost double you career HR totals in one year

there is something going on, but I don’t know what it is if he is just seeing the ball better, pitchers just haven’t made adjustments to him or what. But this is insane and no one, if you did contact me I have some ocean front property in Arizona for you, where was this when he was in Pittsburgh.

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by WVPiratesfan on Sep 29, 2025 11:03 PM EDT reply actions

If undetectable drugs made you go from 16 to 52 homers in one year, everyone would use them.

by limozeen on Sep 29, 2025 11:14 PM EDT reply actions

But if new undetectable drugs were out there, isn’t it possible that early adopters would have an advantage? It’s really sad to me that this kind of season has to raise questions, but it clearly does given what baseball has been through and the continued distrust inspired by Clemens and Bonds and the complexities of drug testing.

The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?

by souldrummer on Sep 29, 2025 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Bonds was a 40-HR hitter before he allegedly started doing drugs. I actually think that a one-time 16-to-52 HR jump is a lot less likely to be drugs than a sustained 1.000 OPS to 1.300 OPS bump. It seems outlandish to me that even the best performance-enhancers could get you from a 16 HR hitter to a 52 HR hitter on pure strength improvements alone. Outlier seasons are so much less likely to be caused by drug use, in my mind; using them as evidence for such is just idiotic.

by limozeen on Sep 30, 2025 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Do you have an explanation for it then?

I don’t think PEDs would be the whole thing. I’m saying that PED’s might help increase confidence and also synergestically work with the swing changes.

I will also free admit that I am in a world of pretty ignorant speculation on a lot of these issues. I know that I’m uncomfortable with this kind of outlier stuff on any kind of power numbers. If a pitcher went from a heater of 90MPH to a heater of 97MPH in one offseason at age 26 or 27, I’d probably have a similar degree of discomfort.

I’d like to have something credible to address my discomfort. I don’t know what that would be besides PEDs, but I would love for the members of this community to help me appreciate what it could be.

The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?

by souldrummer on Sep 30, 2025 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think a comparison with velocity is very appropriate. If we had available to us Bautista’s change in raw strength that might be more appropriate to compare to velocity. I think a more appropriate comparison would be a similar jump in strikeouts although that still isn’t a great comparison.

by Nathan Holmes on Sep 30, 2025 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Bonds

Bonds definetly did take drugs then he allegedly lied about it. His defense has been that he didn’t he was taking drugs….just saying.

by waitone on Sep 30, 2025 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

menat to say...

His defense is that he didnt know he was taking them.

by waitone on Sep 30, 2025 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah ridiculous

that people think the effect of PED’s is to take a 20 homer guy and make him a 50 homer guy….and on the flick of a switch…..and without gaining an ounce of mass.

Jose’s squaring up a lot of balls this year, that happens sometimes.

by ayjackson on Sep 30, 2025 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

ridiculous?

I would say it is FAR more ridiculous to think a batting stance change could turn a guy that hit a HR every 30 ABs into a guy that hits a HR every 10 ABs.

PEDs helped Bonds go from a 40 homer guy to a 70 homer guy. So it’s actually ridiculous to think PEDs couldn’t help a player hit an addition 30 homers a year.

by nyy601 on Sep 30, 2025 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Um, you're missing something here.

What you mean is that you believe PEDs are the reason Bonds went from a 40 homer guy to a 70 homer guy. He took PEDs → he hit more home runs is not a causal relationship. Correlation does not equal causation.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 30, 2025 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Ugh

Just ugh.

by siddfynch on Sep 30, 2025 2:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I dont think he's missing anything.

if there was no causal relationship, they wouldn’t be called performance enhancing drugs.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions

You’ve clearly never taken a statistics class.

by metafour on Sep 30, 2025 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes I have

and did very well in it. My comment was intended sarcastically, by implying that they wouldn’t be called performance enhancing drugs if they didn’t improve performance, hence the causal relationship just by the name.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

you are offending the basic rules of language so badly that the ghost of kripke is coming after you and kripke isn’t even dead yet

by handknit on Oct 1, 2025 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

considering this is a baseball thread,

who cares?

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Your credibility might

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.

by Satchel Price on Oct 1, 2025 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I just checked with my credibility

and it doesnt care what people on a baseball site think of me “offending the basic rules of language”.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

For arguments sake, there’s a difference between a 75% increase and a 250% increase. There was also a lot of mass build associated with Bonds power spike. And it wasn’t a one year spike, which is all Jose’s is so far.

However, I don’t make the case in my post that it is a mechanical adjustment that produced the results. I said he’s squaring up more balls happen and these things happen. The implication of my comment is that in all likelihood he will square up less balls next year. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest that he might be average 30 HR per year over the next three years though. I don’t think that would be too agregious to the PED sniffers would it?

by ayjackson on Sep 30, 2025 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

one too many happens in my post

by ayjackson on Sep 30, 2025 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m sure you can tell me what Davey Johnson was taking, since PEDs clearly must have been a part of the explanation for his 1973.

by J. Michael Neal on Sep 30, 2025 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

What park change did he make?

Fulton County Stadium my man from memorial Stadium- Johnson power can be explained

by ribman on Sep 30, 2025 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions

But it was THREE TIMES THE NUMBER OF HOME RUNS! OMG!!!!!!!!

by J. Michael Neal on Oct 1, 2025 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

and it couldn't be that them flying 50 feet farther

helps them get over the fence, no? Squaring up on balls is 1 thing, but getting them over the fence 3x more than your best season is more than squaring up on balls, IMO.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions

They're flying 50 feet farther?

No, they’re not. According to hit tracker his HRs are travelling about 8 feet further than last year, and just 2 feet further than 2008.
You don’t think swing mechanics/approach could get a hitter an extra few feet?

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 30, 2025 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions

The 50 feet was facetious

but you’re comparing 13 home runs to 52. In 2009 his fastest bat speed on a HR was 109.4 mph. This year he has exceeded that 19 times. His average bat speed increased 3.4 mph from 2009 to 2010. How do you increase bat speed? strength?

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions

usually mechanics

by ayjackson on Sep 30, 2025 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

mechanics

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by alskor on Oct 1, 2025 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions

mechanics

by matthewmafa on Oct 1, 2025 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

in the post steroid Era, that can be the only explanation.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Apparently for you

in the post steroid era, steroids can be the only explanation.

Think about it. A player with power potential has a flaw in his swing. He fixes the flaw. Wouldn’t you expect his power to jump? Are there not HUNDREDS of examples of fluky seasons for both pitchers and hitters in baseball history where a guy put it all together for a season?

Bautista has made a real jump in skill, AND he’s had a fluky great season on top of that. He’s not going to do this again, but it would not surprise me at all if he hits 30+ homers multiple times over the next few years.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

One Caveat

I really don’t think this is so much the “post-steroid” era as it is the “testing” era. Unless I took you wrong, I’m pretty sure there’s still lots of doping going on, most of it concentrated on hGH, DHEA, IGF, and things of that ilk. And just wait till gene doping gets here!

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

terminology

I’m fine with that. Still, I do not accept that PEDs are the only reason, or maybe even the biggest reason, that offense went up for a while. We simply do not know, everyone is just making a leap there. Home runs have been steadily increasing for 100 years. They have taken huge jumps in the past that definitely had zero to do with steroids, yet everyone quickly dismisses any explanation other than PEDs for the most recent jump.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

so in other words

you pretty much discount it completely. Since you took liberties above by saying for me it must be the only explanation (not correct by the way), I will do the same for you. It’s interesting that you say everyone is making a leap there. Perhaps its because there’s been more 50 home run seasons in the last 20 years than in the 80 before that? Since testing began there’s been only 1 or 2 50 home run seasons, but for a decade before that they made the single season homerun record into a pinata breaking contest.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Again, power has been increasing

pretty steadily for 100 years. I have said here multiple times, in this thread and over years posting here, that PEDs may have played some part in the increase in run scoring the last couple of decades. But we do NOT know how much, and most people assume way too much in my opinion. Too many sportswriters and fans just say steroids/PEDs and forget to even consider several other factors I have mentioned in this thread and elsewhere.

Strike zone, adding an 11th (or often even 12th) man to the bullpen, expansion, ballpark construction, variances in ball construction (well within the vague standards), all of these things deserve consideration. All of these things likely affected run scoring and power. PEDs fit in there, too, but not nearly to the degree that you insist on.

I think the effect of PEDs on offense, including home runs, is vastly overstated by most baseball fans, officials, and sportswriters.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 2, 2025 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions

so when a pitcher has a below average curveball, but then develops his grip and arm slot on his curveball to increase its break/velocity, the only explanation must be PED’s.

by packimop on Oct 1, 2025 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends

I mean, was he 29 years old? Was the jump in velo from 88-95? Because in that case, I think PED’s are as likely as any other explanation.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

it’s just a point that I was making that a pitcher can change a grip on a pitch just like a batter can change the fluidity of his swing.

by packimop on Oct 1, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

But other factors have to be considered, too. Nothing occurs in a vacuum. Yes, a batter can change his swing, but you’d still expect things to be within a realm of variation unless there is a systemic change (i.e. Quad A arm R.A. Dickey picks up the knuckleball, emerges as a legit MLB starter.)

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

A pitcher can't change his grip

if he’s 29?

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

He Could

But he likely would have tried it earlier, no? And even if he did, would a change in grip in a professional baseball player really be the reason for such a massive jump in velocity? I think it’s completely naive to ascribe such piss poor coaching to professionals, even in the worst run organizations.

Yeah, I do think that a 29 year old who suddenly jumps 7mph on the gun and starts blowing Lord Charles at 95 is probably on the gas. Wouldn’t you?

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

FYI

A 95 mph curve would probably be the hardest the game’s known, even moreso than Sandy Koufax’s. I guess I should have put this out there - I was assuming said pitcher already had pretty good velo to start, much as scouting reports pegged Bautista as having good pop to start, before he suddenly developed 80 power.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

if any pitcher had that kind of jump in velo

even I might be skeptical. But I don’t doubt a pitcher can try new pitches or new grips, release points, etc. and enjoy a tic up in velo, or at least in performance.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that

a tick up in velocity can occur with a change and so can some power, but not the amount that Bautista has experienced this year.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

What amount, then?

And how are you any more qualified than I to say what amount means automatic suspicion? Are you a physicist? Are you ready to say that it’s not believable that a player who already had power with a swing flaw couldn’t add greatly to that power by fixing his swing?

Please show me why it’s not possible. How is it physically not possible? A better swing with more loft should mean more fly balls and home runs, right?

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 2, 2025 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

but not the amount that Bautista has experienced this year.

I’ve never seen such an increase in bad posts from one poster in such a short period of time. Therefore, I’m going to assume you’re on drugs. Likely some sort of hallucinogen.

I could buy two or three vague statements implying Bautista used… but 10+ outright, unfounded (and may I add libelous!) accusations? You can’t make that kind of jump without being on drugs.

Get yourself some help and get clean, man. Good luck to you on the road back to sobriety.

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by alskor on Oct 3, 2025 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Ben Johnson syndrome

And besides, you’re too statistically literate for this, limo. You know there will be a range of responses to a causal variable, and the outliers could range in both directions. A performance enhancer may have very different responses for Alex sanchez and some back of the packer cyclist than on Barry bonds and Floyd landis.

by siddfynch on Sep 30, 2025 2:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

The word “alone” is missing from my original statement. Performance-enhancers alone are extremely unlikely causes for an outlier season like Bautista’s.

The real problem is that “predicting” drug usage is the worst kind of pseudoscience. Proving a negative is impossible, and saying that Player X’s improvement is likely legit while Player Y’s is likely drug-aided is no better than phrenology or the like.

Even if we deign to try to find drug use statistically, using one outlier season as “proof” seems like the worst way to go about it. Not only is the sample size low compared to a sustained performance increase, but the dramatic nature of the change logically points to a combination of causes.

Also, I think this is yet another example of how people seem to misunderstand “randomness” when it applies to sports. Let’s just look at a simple stat: batting average. Say you have a player who has 1000 career at bats and 300 career hits. If you pick a random at bat within that sample, you’re going to pick a hit 30% of the time and an out 70% of the time. But that kind of randomness is actually imposed on the sample; it is possible that the hitter was actually a .400 hitter for half of those at bats, and a .200 hitter for the other half. The point is that “randomness” exists within a sample that already exists, but not within yet-to-happen results, because the underlying chances of success may change.

The short way to say it is that players can change their expected statistics over time, or in a short period. If a statistically significant change happens (such as a guy with 15-HR power hitting 50 HR in a season), that only means that some change in the underlying probabilities likely caused the change, not randomness. The factors that can create such a drastic and instant change seem unlikely to me to be related to drug use. It seems to me highly improbable that drug use has a drastic “inject and hit 50 HR” effect.

So the point is, sure it’s possible that Bautista is using some kind of banned substance. But I don’t think the fact that he hit 50 HR makes it any more likely, and the argument that it does makes no sense to me.

by limozeen on Sep 30, 2025 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Ben Zobrist's HR/FB rate

made an enormous jump, going from 3-4% range in 2006-07 to over 17% in 2008-09, then plummeting back to just over 6% this year. His ISO was .052 in 2007, then .253 in ‘08, and .246 in ’09. This strikes me as at least as much an outlier as Bautista’s 2010 — unless you’re talking purely in numbers of HRs.

I’m skeptical of the skepticism on this. I think home runs have a magical power to make us think strange things are happening. Bautista showed power all along, much more than Zobrist.

I’ve seen several articles about the HR total being the biggest one year increase ever. Well, how about the slugging, ISO, and HR/FB rates? Were those the biggest increases ever? I’d like to see an article explore that, not sure exactly how to research that. We’re getting exorcised over this counting stat. It’s unfair to Bautista, IMO.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 30, 2025 12:35 AM EDT reply actions

Coaching staff

Before the season it was noted that the Jays’ coaching staff had Bautista begin his swing earlier. In fact, they started this late last season when he went on a homerun binge in September. They noticed that he was always behind the ball and by beginning his swing earlier, he was able to tap into his tremendous power.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 30, 2025 1:35 AM EDT reply actions

If you watch his swing now compared to his swing before this season

You’d see there’s a very obvious answer that isn’t PED related. Completely different swing. Watch his hands.

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by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 2:59 AM EDT reply actions

Not to mention the clear effect that it's had on the kind of contact that he makes

He’s hitting a ton of fly balls now, roughly 55% compared to 42% last season.

Another interesting thing is that he’s seeing wayyy less fastballs- only Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard and Dan Uggla have seen more breaking and offspeed pitches than Bautista. And it’s worth noting that he’s been absolutely killing the fastball this year:only Konerko and Votto have provided more value on fastballs this year.

This doesn’t look steroids related- it looks like a guy who had something really click at the exact same time that he had some really good luck.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 30, 2025 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Yup... in fact

The batted ball data kind of makes me think much of this improvement will stick. This is what he is… though 50+ is lucky. I can see 30 from him next year again.

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by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed, I don't think this is totally a fluke

This is a legitimate breakout.

The swing mechanics have obviously helped him immensely, but he’s improved pretty much every facet of his offensive game this season.

He won’t post a .355 isolated power again, but I can definitely see something like .260/.370/.480 as a baseline going forward- this guy’s power and on-base skills are legitimate.

Anyone expecting Bautista to revert back into what he was before, a .240/.330/.415 kind of guy, is going to be pleasantly surprised.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.

by Satchel Price on Sep 30, 2025 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Here's the reason it isn't steroids

Every single one of his home runs is hit to left field, most of them absolute rockets, because he can only pull the ball with power with his swing. Check out hittracker.com and you’ll see. The guys doing roids like Bonds and McGwire hit them to all fields just cause they’re so jacked they have instant power to all fields by making contact. Bautista’s swing is highly leveraged and he can’t hit opposite field home runs, only pull homers. If he comes back with 80 homers to all fields next year we’ll know he’s on roids.

by brewerm on Sep 30, 2025 3:28 AM EDT reply actions

I never post here, but...

This is a classic example of sabermetrics supporting scouting to explain at least part of an end result.

In the traditional counting sense, absolutely going from 16 home runs to 52 is a huge increase. But consider that Bautista has had over 470 PA once in his career and it is clear that part of the increase must be inherently due to increased playing time. As John mentioned, he has never received consistent playing time, and likely that has contributed to his counting performance this season.

Next, take a look at his FB%. He’s been consistently in the low-40% range of FB, but has increased his FB rate to 54.9% this season. Even with a constant HR/FB rate (which isn’t true in this case, and we will address shortly), that speaks to a 30% increase in FB% compared to last season. Inherently that will correspond to more homers. Furthermore, the increase in FB is supported by observational scouting detailing his emphasis on a newfound uppercut swing and flyball approach.

The biggest “red flag” that undermines a natural increase in power is his HR/FB rate. Around a league average 12% rate has increased to an absurd 21.5% rate this season. This factor is more difficult to explain, but a closer examination of his performance reveals that his HR/FB% rate is 26.6% at home and a more reasonable (albeit elevated) rate of 16.1% on the road. Considering his relatively recent arrival to Toronto, perhaps that park simply suits him perfectly — maybe PNC suppressed his power? I believe each park has relatively neutral RH HR factors though…

Some posters have used Mauer as an example above, which is a very unique situation. His HR/FB% nearly tripled from around 8% to 20.6% last year, but it’s pretty clear that Mauer had some element of luck on his side — 11 of his 28 homers were classified as Just Enough from hittrackeronline (11 of Bautista’s 52 are JE this season… 2 inside-the-park). Be it luck or Target Field, Mauer’s HR/FB% has fallen back to earth this season.

Bottom line — we have no clue whether or not Bautista is using PEDs, and anyone who speaks with any confidence to the matter either must know him directly or is simply hypothesizing without real evidence. The morale of the story is that it’s sad that increased performance is met with such skepticism… but that is the current state of baseball. At least the numbers help explain part of his performance — the rest is luck: real or manmade.

Either way, phenomenal that a BABIP of .234 (hello, high FB rate) can contribute to a .424 wOBA and nearly 7 WAR season. Enjoy it.

by muybienbien on Sep 30, 2025 3:55 AM EDT reply actions 7 recs

+1

by John Sickels on Sep 30, 2025 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Well put

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 30, 2025 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

He Pulls Everything

when big league hitters pull the ball, their HR/FB % is way higher then when they hit it to center or opposite field….

thats why his HR/FB% is so high

by matthewmafa on Sep 30, 2025 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions

swing mechanics

you hear about 100 big leaguers a year changing swing/arm slot/new pitch etc… and I would say that about 90% of the time the change does not impact performance very much, this just might be one case where it really does make a huge difference.

by THESWAMI6 on Sep 30, 2025 9:22 AM EDT reply actions

Seeming the hitch in his swing messed up his ability to pull and adjust

It was a pretty major mechanical flaw to be dealing with. Bautista was always known as a potential 25-30HR hitter even from his early Pirates days, but he never really produced, largely due to being late on his swing and having to rush, he’d end up topping a load of inside pitches to the 3B and whiffing completely on curves, and he never got right handed pitching.

Cue the changes and he’s now on time, he’s set up and can home in on curves and inside pitches now and get out of his own way, resulting in him finally starting to pull stuff with his true power. It’s been a known flaw for a while now, just seems a coach finally got it explained to him in a way that let him get it at last.

by TtD on Sep 30, 2025 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Could say your looking at a player that shouldn't have been up in the MLB

Due to his broken swing, the sole reason he was seen as a utility guy at the MLB level was that he had experience from his rule 5 riddled season at the big league level. Until this year Bautista was a badly flawed player, no better than any other AAA option and not ready for the big leagues.

by TtD on Sep 30, 2025 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I just wish people weren't so quick to accuse.

Suspicions are one thing, but I hear national radio personalities, internet personalities, and the like, basically accuse Jose Bautista of using steroids. And their only proof is “52 home runs”

That’s not proof. Read Joe Posnaski’s list of 32 flukiest home run seasons and you’ll see that these things have been happening for the past century.

Yes, some of that has been proven to be PED’s usage. But plenty of guys find a way to be more productive later on in their career. Do we think Jamie Moyer is on PED’s? No? Why not, because he’s a pitcher and not even a power pitcher? Well, he didn’t do much in his career until he was 30 and has pitched for almost two more decades. Thinking that any time a player increases his home run total is an automatic sign of steroid use, is ignorant and unfair.

by Humbled Fan on Sep 30, 2025 11:37 AM EDT reply actions

how about the .200 increase in SLG?

Sometimes the simplest explanation IS the answer. No idea if Bautista is on PEDs or not and it’s likely no one will ever know. Hundreds of players change their hitting or pitching approach and 99.99% will never see the increase in production that Bautista has.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Why is PEDs the "simplest" answer?

Why isn’t better hitting the simplest answer?

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 30, 2025 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

because

better hitting didn’t get him anywhere near 52 HR his first 8 years. If he went from 13 to 25-30 I could see it. 52 just screams out that there may be something more to it.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 30, 2025 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds like you’re a bit butthurt.

You mad brah? 2 more HRs tonight. LMFAO.

by metafour on Sep 30, 2025 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions

plus his first oppo shot of the year

all homers before 53 hr before we pulled wow

by matthewmafa on Oct 1, 2025 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions

First oppos shot

of his professional career

by handknit on Oct 1, 2025 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

butthurt?

I could care less about Bautista or if he is taking PEDs or not. Its unheard of for a player to take some performance enhancers to boost his stats to get a huge contract when he becomes a FA (paging Mr. Beltre). The more homers he hits, the more he is suspect. He’s doubled his career total in 1 year.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

How many more players do you want to accuse with no evidence?

by Humbled Fan on Oct 1, 2025 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

just the ones that

go from role player to potential MVP in one season. Thanks for asking.

by Looney4baseball on Oct 2, 2025 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Occam's Razor

Muybienbien’s post seemed really on target to me, and that’s really where I stand on this issue. However, in response to why PED’s are the simplest answer…

Simple experience over the last two decades would indicate a high likelihood of PED usage. 50 HR is a lot, and Bautista just had the biggest jump in HR in the history of MLB. Most major jumps in power over the last 20 years have been associated with PED usage. It was extremely prevalent for a period; it seems to have been curbed, not driven out of existence.

Does this mean Bautista’s using? Absolutely not. Do I think that Bautista could be convicted or found liable based on the evidence available on the public record? Not a chance, nor would he deserve it. But do I think that PED usage is a likely explanation for Bautista’s jump? Absolutely, and this is because of the Steroid Era.

Go back and read a few of my old posts, and you’ll see that I’m no stranger to the issue of PED’s, or MLB’s testing. It’s a deterrent, and probably the best system in North America (especially at the minor league level, where no CBA is necessary.) However, a determined player can still skirt past it. I think that there is a certain willful naivete to the people who are denying the likelihood of Bautista’s tremendous jump in power.

I hope he’s clean, and I’m willing to accept that he’s clean for historical purposes, barring a future event proving otherwise. But I think PED’s are as good an explanation as any. (Sometimes I feel like the David Brooks of MinorLeagueBall.com)

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

couldnt have said it better.

+100000000

by Looney4baseball on Oct 1, 2025 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I disagree

Most major jumps in power over the last 20 years have been associated with PED usage.

We know of some players using. We assume it helped their power, though there have almost certainly been multiple factors in increased run scoring and power during that period (shrinking strike zone, ball construction, park design, etc. etc.). Saying this all came from steroids is at least as ridiculous as saying none of it did.

I don’t think it’s completely unreasonable to wonder if PEDs are playing a part in this. I do, however think it’s completely ridiculous to just assume that’s it, or to dismiss the mechanics argument out of hand, as looney tunes is doing.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Hrm...

Well, we do have the Mitchell Report to go by, which fingered most of the power explosion as being related to the Kirk Radomskies of the world (and before that, Curtis Wenzlaff according to Operation Equine.) So, that would give rise to the “where there’s smoke, there’s fire suspicion.” As I said earlier, I’m inclined to side with muybienbien on this one, and try to look for the evidence rather than a non-analytical positive test. But, I think it’s a reasonable position to say that after what we’ve seen during the steroid era, PED’s are basically as good an explanation as any. Moreover, Bautista isn’t playing through the high-end-of-ball-construction era (as far as we know.) He’s not suddenly in a league of much smaller parks, nor playing in one that’s very different. The AL zone isn’t suddenly smaller than the NL zone. Those potential causal factors of the 90’s are not in play here, by and large.

I honestly don’t think we’re all that far apart. I’m definitely NOT naming PED’s as the culprit, but I’m trying to stress that they shouldn’t be discounted so thoroughly as some posters seem to be doing.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Sometimes where there's smoke, there's Dwight doing a simulated fire drill.

You’re “definitely NOT naming PED’s as the culprit” yet you think that steroids are most likely the reason for Bautista having a breakout power season? That’s very closely treading the line of being quite the contradiction.

Lets just say that Bautista did bulk up over the offseason. (I don’t know much about what Bautista looked like last season compared to this season. Though it wouldn’t surprise me if he looked the same. From what I’ve seen from him this season, there would be a noticeable difference between his bulk and that of McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds. But of course, lets just ignore that for the sake of, it hurts peoples arguments that are accusing Bautista of taking steroids without proof.) Whatever happened to the old fashioned “I went to the gym really hard this offseason, drank protein shakes, and worked my ass off and gained 15 pounds of muscle”?

It’s not impossible. It’s not even hard. Hell, if I was actually good enough to make the major leagues, I would work my ass off in the gym every day if it meant I could become a star, or just keep a regular job. Yes, this is a reason some people have taken steroids. But what about the people that work their asses off and legitemately prove their worth/their work ethic to be better for himself and to put on a better show for YOU the fans/their determination to be the best.

It’s not McGwire and Bonds that are stripping the next generation of players from becoming superstars we don’t question… its people like you.

by Humbled Fan on Oct 1, 2025 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I love the title of this post!

by King Billy Royal on Oct 1, 2025 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I can attest that Bautista does not look very different, if at all different, body-wise(muscles) from last year. I am a Jays fan who has watched 95% of their games though all on the tv.

by hrv1978 on Oct 1, 2025 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

I should add to the post below: Bautista doesn’t really look altogether that different, so in that sense he passes the smell test.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

If you were in the big leagues

You were probably already pretty close to your physical peak. The days of Brian Downing and Freddie Lynn on the Nautilus are long gone by. So, yeah, gaining 15lbs of muscle would be a pretty big red flag, actually. Especially if you were 29.

I suppose the problem here is that you really don’t appreciate what I’m saying - - I think PED’s are as likely an explanation as any, but I don’t think they are necessarily THE explanation. Does that make sense? It’s not a contradiction; it’s nuance for a gray world.

It’s not McGwire and Bonds; it’s A-Rod and Reyes who continue to dope despite testing by using undetectable drugs.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Explain to me how the Mitchell Report proves that PEDs definitely caused all or even

most of the power explosion? The Mitchell Report proves that a lot of players took PEDs. It does not prove that those PEDs explain more power.

Power has not been static through baseball history. Why are PEDs everyone’s default explanation? It’s lazy and simplistic. PEDs likely played a part, but we DO NO KNOW how much of one. We do not know. To me it seems much more likely that PEDs were only part of the story. Everyone just wants a convenient bogeyman when it comes to HRs.

Bautista changed his swing just after moving to a friendly park.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Oct 1, 2025 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

And he must have started taking steroids in the middle of last season.

He hit .216/.342/.301 in his first 289 plate appearances with 3 HR and .280/.360/.660 in his last 115 PA’s with 10 HR.

I just don’t get the feeling that players who have roided in the past, saw such a quick jump in power numbers at the end of a season. It’s usually a jump from year to year - a player comes back the next year after 6 months of juice and gym and is a totally different player.

Jose Bautista changed his game in the middle of last season. The writing is on the wall. He started hitting great in September of LAST YEAR. I wish people would start to get it.

by Humbled Fan on Oct 1, 2025 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

He did!

And he definitely changed his swing! And he’s in a park that he might see the ball better in! But where did THIS kind of power come from? We’ll have to wait to see if it’s just a fluke, I suppose. However, the most likely answer is most often the correct one, and in the year 2010, PED use IS the most likely answer for a power surge like this, because it happened so many times from the mid-late 80’s to the early-mid 00’s.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Correlation

does not prove causation. That said, repeat after me: STEROIDS WORK. They work really farking well. They don’t have to make you bigger: that’s what winny and primo are for. However, they can make you a whole lot stronger, and that means you can whip your bat through the zone a whole lot faster… which means that you can maybe become the dead pull hitter your talents are otherwise perfectly suited to being?

And yes, steroids do kick in pretty quickly. The trouble is that evidence is almost entirely anecdotal because it’d be unethical to run a controlled experiment. Now, as to why Mitchell is cited for the power explosion? Because the HR record was shattered by players who were juiced up, and who wouldn’t have gotten there otherwise. Sammy Sosa was a 35-40HR guy who suddenly became a baseline 60-65HR guy at the age of 29. Ken Caminiti suddenly became an MVP and bashed the crap out of the ball. No, we don’t know how much of a role PED’s played, but here’s what we can say: the smaller yards are still here. Maybe the ball has been brought back to regulation. Mind telling me where the annual 50+ HR seasons have gone? How about the ubiquitous 95+ mph relievers? Why the average age of players has gone down?

PED’s were only a part of the story; that’s for certain. They are an easy explanation. That’s true. Think about your logic, though: you’ll grant that PED’s might improve performance. There are no other major variables which have changed for Bautista between 2009-2010 outside of park, and the Rogers Centre plays similarly for RHB to PNC. Why are you being so sore about allowing for PED’s as a possible explanation? Doesn’t that seem to be the intellectually lazy answer?

here’s one (I apologize for the length of the link): http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:exZQTip_AIIJ:webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/Tobin_AJP_Jan08.pdf+,%22Onthe+Potential+of+a+Chemical+Bonds:+Possible+Effects+of+Steroids+on+Home+Run+Production+in+Baseball,%22&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESh2atPRhA3AjeIIb6rH14BXTyAwqWuh5jkDsU5Xra0rTHIEoPE-DiomNewrmdB6SmZm1y-3e3xh4QcInAEmXc8ucYqaxPWRr7HIAyG2TVN-9CbvsmYVj2tCIE2Wya48zB8QiTCG&sig=AHIEtbSKBKH8sDjao5XoDa9LHM07ZehyMQ

Steroids and Baseball is flat out Joe Weider crap.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

O hai!

http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/gould/canseco_nov_11_2007.pdf

You could also feel free to read Juicing the Game by Howard Bryant, Canseco’s Juiced, Will Carroll’s The Juice, any pro wrestler’s autobio, or the forums at bodybuilding.com. Steroids. Work.

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

SABR 38

This is actually the article I was thinking of initially:
http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol4/iss3/4/ (I couldn’t find the accompanying BBTF thread. :/)

by GuyinNY on Oct 1, 2025 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

The obvious answer is right in front of your face:

-New found consistent playing time
-Drastically altered hitting mechanics
-Very favourable home hitting park
-Coaching philosophy geared towards hitting homeruns.

Call it an unlikely perfect storm of factors that have co-mingled in a short period of time to finally awaken a player who has always had the ability to be good (voted best power in Pittsburgh’s farm-system by BA at one point). There is some luck involved as well, which is likely why he’s not going to hit 50 HRs again.

The Blue Jays as a team are 11 homeruns away from breaking the single season record. Everyone on that team is mashing the ball; even a guy like Aaron Hill who has had an otherwise terrible season is still hitting the ball out of the park (another guy who had a huge power spike after the change in coaching staffs BTW). What is a more logical conclusion? That everyone on that team is on some magical new PED that cannot be flagged, or that there is a legit atmosphere that has been built in Toronto that is creating homeruns. How about John McDonald with his 6 HRs and .209 ISO this year? His career ISO is .089. Alex Gonzalez? 17 homeruns in 85 games in Toronto; traded to Atlanta where he has hit just 6 HRs in 70 games. At age 33 he was on pace to break his career HR best by 7 home runs. Jose Molina? Career high ISO, tied for career high HR total…with 20 less games played in (hit 6 HRs in 75 games in 2005; has 6 in 56 games this year).

Everyone on that team is benefiting from a positive HR park and a coaching mentality that is VERY “pro-power”. The Blue Jays as a team lead the league in FB%. They lead the league in HR/FB. Lowest GB% in the league. They also lead the league in IFFB%….what causes a lot of infield fly balls? An approach at the plate that is geared toward trying to pull the ball out of the park. Oh, they’re also spanking everyone in ISO power.

Its all there in plain sight. Or you can say steroids…on a player that looks no different than he ever has in the past. Bonds, Canseco, McGuire, Sosa…what do they all have in common? They were freaking huge during their peak HR years. Noticeably bigger than in the past. Huge arms. OBVIOUS steroid gains. Bautista? Zero physical change. Does this prove he’s not on PEDs? No, but it seriously hurts the argument of anyone who wants to claim that it is “obvious”.

By the way; what was the greatest performance difference of the above known juicers? The ability to miss a ball and still hit it over the fence on pure (altered) power alone. I’m not sure I remember Bautista hitting a single HR this year in which a ball hit off the end of the bat somehow flew over the fence. Has he been lucky a few times…yes, but almost all of those cases were extremely hard-hit line drives which barely cleared the height of the fence (ie: the ball wasn’t “missed”, it just lacked elevation). Thats been his secret this year: he isn’t missing balls. It is blatantly obvious that he’s not “muscling” balls out of ballparks, he is doing it by an extreme ability to not miss the pitch he is looking for. This is the absolute biggest misconception: that because of his low average, he’s a poor contact, huge power hitter. His contact rates match and in some cases exceed that of guys like Votto, Cabrera, Konerko, etc. IE: Guys who are all hitting .320 or higher. Do performance enhancers help you make contact with the ball? No freaking way.

by metafour on Oct 1, 2025 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Very well said

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Oct 1, 2025 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Bam Bam Bautista

I’ve seen every one of his games since he joined the Jays.

He is a joy to watch and has an absolute cannon for an arm - not a big factor when discussing homers. No question his “swing” is very different to MY eye from what it was when he came over. Also his uppercut - homer barrage - all started last September when Rios was let go and he got regular full time playing. I think - and hope - the guy isn’t juiced. Juiced or not - he’s a real treat to watch. AND - seems like a great guy to have a beer with as well.

Good luck JBau!

by Mylegacy on Sep 30, 2025 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

This could have been an awesome thread...

but instead it’s just “drugs, drugs, drugs.” Maybe I’ll give it another go in a day and try to weed out the people interested in talking about reasonable explanations of approach and swing mechanics.

by PissedMick on Sep 30, 2025 6:44 PM EDT reply actions

seriously.

by packimop on Oct 1, 2025 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

A few people’s viewpoint on this are ignorant and borderline offensive. Its amazing they haven’t been hired as baseball beat writers.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Oct 1, 2025 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

A little off topic but the Jays need to hit 4 homers on average in these last 3 games starting tomorrow night to break the ML record Seattle set in ’97 I think.

by hrv1978 on Sep 30, 2025 11:58 PM EDT reply actions