Intuitive Picks from 2010 Draft

by John Sickels on Oct 2, 2025 9:00 AM EDT

Prospects from the 2010 Draft: Intuitive Likings

A reader recently commented that I had mentioned last year that I had a good intuitive feeling about Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels outfield prospect, beyond just the standard scouting expectations. He was a first-rounder of course, but not every first rounder thrives in the way he did this year, and I did have a "gut feeling" about that one.

I do use intuition in my judgments. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. I personally think that intuition is an expression or the experience of subconscious information processing: the brain sees a pattern or makes an association that we normally don't detect consciously, and the awareness of it comes into the conscious mind as a "gut feeling." Whenever I make such an intuitive call about a player that may or may not have an empirical basis, I usually label it as such since I don't want to mislead people.

Anyway, the reader's question was, who do I see from the 2010 draft that I have such an intuitive feeling about? I'm just going to list the names here of guys that I like in this way, that trigger such a gut feeling. Please note that the absence of a player doesn't mean I don't think he's a great prospect. Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon, and Manny Machado aren't on the list. They are outstanding prospects and I fully agree with the consensus on them, but they don't trigger that "gut feeling" that I'm talking about here.

This is just a list of players; I'm not giving REASONS or an analysis here, because that is the whole point: there is no conscious reason.

Notably Positive "Gut Feelings," for players through the end of the third round.

Yasmani Grandal
Josh Sale
Mike Foltynewicz
Alex Wimmers
Kyle Parker
Zach Lee
Noah Syndergaard
Luke Jackson
Seth Blair
Tyrell Jenkins
Stetson Allie
Brett Eibner
J.R. Bradley
Addison Reed
Ryan Brett
Marcus Knecht
Donn Roach

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Not sure about Knecht

I saw him a few times and while he did hit a HR when I did see him, he was the DH for most of the year and he had trouble with breaking stuff down…

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2025 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

intuition

Intuition, bravesin07

by John Sickels on Oct 2, 2025 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Josh Sale jumped out at me immediately when I read about him, just sounds like he could be an incredible hitter if all goes well and a pretty good one regardless. Obviously his true floor is still short of a MLB player but he just really sounds like about as close to real deal you can get for a HS kid to me.

Not sure about all those other guys, didn’t get strong feelings one way or the other.

I felt pretty good about K. Vitek, N. Castellanos, V. Velasquez, J. Gyorko, D. Dietrich, and S. Coyle to name a few. Those are all pretty high picks though, would take some real digging to find someone after the 10th round that I really liked based off of their reports. I do remember thinking T. Holt sounded like a good bet to be a MLB player (even if just a 4th OF) and I’m pretty sure he went in the 10th.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

I was excited about Velasquez because of how little he had pitched, so he hadn’t had the time to develop any pitchability really. But, he had plenty of projection and showed lots of potential as well. Unfortunately, he underwent TJ surgery last week sometime. Not, a career ending, but yet still worrisome.

by Subber10 on Oct 2, 2025 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow, had not heard that. Thanks for the info.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I have the same thing for some of these guys....

Grandal
Wimmers
Lee
Allie
Sale
Other guys I have this for:
Peter Tago
Cam Bedrosian
Kolbrin Vitek
Jesse Biddle
Ryan LaMerre
Jason Adam

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Oct 2, 2025 12:25 PM EDT reply actions

I like Biddle a lot and i'm a Braves Fan

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2025 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

Biddle

He was a big intuitive guy for me. I’m also in on Foltynewicz and Lipka as others have mentioned. I also have a goods feeling about Asher Wojciechowski, Austin Wates, Mike Olt, Nick Castellanos, Dylan Covey, Kellin Deglan, Tyrell Jenkins, Cody Buckel…

by blackoutyears on Oct 2, 2025 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Covey

is at University of San Diego

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Oct 2, 2025 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I know. Point?

by blackoutyears on Oct 3, 2025 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions

covey

I have a theory that even at his best this year, he still wasn’t pitching to his full potential. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if, once he has his diabetes under control, he’s showing much better stuff than we originally thought he was capable of. Considering that he already had very solid command, he could go Purke on us, and could even be a better prospect than Purke is going into this year.

Of course, this relies on a few things going right . . .which is why it’s a theory, and why I’m not saying “Dylan Covey is going to make us all look terrible!!!”

by mrkupe on Oct 3, 2025 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Covey

won’t make me look bad unless he turns into a pumpkin at USD. I’ve been (unreasonably?) high on him since his junior year. lol

I think the Covey of the first few starts this spring is a glimpse of what he can be. He was 92-96 with the FB and featured the hammer curve, pitched deep into games. I’m completely with you, kupe, in thinking that he could really take off in college. I won’t be surprised if he and Gausman both end up being excellent college starters. LSU and USD are strong programs which generally protect their pitchers, and both guys have well above average stuff. I’m not betting on Gausman “going Purke” either, but he’s eligible to do so. Hard to imagine anyone doing what Purke did this year, eh? That was nuts…

by blackoutyears on Oct 4, 2025 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Matt Lipka

I really think this kid is going to get stronger and his speed is already a plus.

by Jay212033 on Oct 2, 2025 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

i really like the kid, too

and i think his frame can hold more, thus allowing for more power. but i think he’s a future CF. however, could he be like Grady Sizemore?

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 2, 2025 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

2B/CF

I think those two positions are where he could possibly end up. I see him as a possible Ian Kinsler type.

by Jay212033 on Oct 2, 2025 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Kinsler

I could see that. Kinsler is LH and is bigger while Kipnis is RH but I could see something close to that production/value wise.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Kinsler is a RH

by jackyz on Oct 2, 2025 5:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Hrm…I even looked him up because I was not certain. Maybe I looked at the wrong guy.

Kinsler is still bigger though.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just itching to rank him as a CF on my rankings.

by yondaime4 on Oct 3, 2025 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't like any of the Pirates guys at all

I don’t like their history of developing pitchers, something tells me that this time next year the surgeon will be busy with Allie and Taillon

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2025 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

So it has nothing to do with the players, you just think the Pirates are going to screw up anyone they take? I’m sure everyone would be quick to purchase a prospect book written by you Braves.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

When was the last time the Pirates had a #1 or #2 round pick as a pitcher make an impact in the majors

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2025 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

How exactly was the current Pirates’ management involved in any of those selections?

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

on sunday when paul maholm pitched.

by larry on Oct 2, 2025 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Maholm has certainly made an impact but I think Braves was thinking more of an impact than that.

Doesn’t really matter though, his rationale for that comment is horrible however he tries to justify it since the organization has changed drastically in the last 3 years on the baseball ops side.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Well the main answer is

When was the last time the PIrates drafted a high ceiling pitcher early in the draft? Bobby Bradley? Kris Benson? Those guys didn’t work out because of injury, not talent. Sean Burnett was more of a pitchability prep arm, and after that it’s been mostly “safe” college arms.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d just like to know why it even matters.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Littlefield.

Is not the Pirates GM anymore.

Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.

by Blicks on Oct 2, 2025 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

replied to wrong person

was supposed to be to Bravesin07.

Needs moar dingerz and moar Josh Donaldson.

by Blicks on Oct 2, 2025 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions

yes. i know. it was a joke.

but, in any event, maholm has been an essentially average starting pitcher in his career. average players make an impact, too.

by larry on Oct 2, 2025 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I definitely agree about average players having value. Unfortunately, a fact people all too often forget on these prospecting websites.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree

It’s not that average players are seen as not having value. It’s that players without big ceilings have less room for error. If they don’t reach their modest ceiling, they are bench players or worse. A high ceiling guy can disappoint and turn into an average player.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d take a guy with a 75% chance of being slightly above average SS over someone with 1% chance of being Pujols. That player with a 1% chance of being a superstar still probably only has a 25% chance of being average.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess I should add this would depend on the cost any my budget as well. I’m not sure where I’d cut it off but you can’t pass up some things. If cost/budget is equal and all we are talking about is talent (with the chances of success being what I said above), I’d definitely take the guy with a 75% chance of being slightly above average.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

This is a bit of an absurd abstract

1% chance of being a superstar with little hope of being average? So, Greg Halman? That guy isn’t rated very highly.

75% chance of being an above average SS? That is high praise. Who fits that description and doesn’t have a premier player ceiling? Alcides Escobar before the season? He was seen as a top 20 prospect.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

He was though, now people have gave up hope he will hit that 1%. Is a 1% chance of being a top 25 player in the history of the game is too low? Or is that too high of an expectation?

Escobar was seen as more than that by the people placing him that high. Perhaps I should have just said average SS, would that have made it easier for you to accept?

Feel free to change the numbers then. Fact remains I’d take a guy with a very good chance to be average (+/- 0.5 WAR) over a guy with a very small chance of being a superstar.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

When he was rated highly, I don’t think those that did thought he had a 1% chance of being a premier player.

I don’t think that’s the case. I liked Escobar as a top 20 prospect and did not see him as more than that.

And this is where the problem comes in. Lack of ceiling does not always equal high floor and vice versa. If you have a strong chance of being an average player, you’re going to be ranked highly. I think you’re assuming too much safety in the mediocre ceiling-ed players

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

1/4 chance of missing is still pretty risky. No? How I am assuming too much safety in low ceiling/high floor players?

Maybe I’m not giving enough thought into ceiling vs. floor but someone with a 75% chance to be average doesn’t have to have a higher ceiling than that even though Escobar did.

Do you define floor as the absolute lowest point a player will settle in as a MLB player? If that is the case, then nobody has a floor of average when they are prospects.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Because I don’t think your giving enough credit to the talent level of the MLB. Which prospect exactly has a 75% chance of being an average MLB player? Jeremy Hellickson, maybe?

No, he doesn’t. Alcides Escobar is the example I’d use of a player without a big ceiling, but with an excellent chance of being average. That’s my point. When you can give those kinds of odds to a player being an average major league player, he will be ranked very high.

I think it’s the lowest possible outcome, and yeah, pretty much. This is all guess work. Some players are safer than others, but I’d be extremely hesitant to hang a 75% chance of being average on any prospect.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Ceiling/floor is 100% subjective. OK, you think Escobar was at best an average player, I think a lot of people thought he could be more if he improved his approach.

If it is truly the lowest possible outcome than every player has relatively the same floor…which is failing to ever reach the majors. :D Scouts should just eliminate it from their vocabulary and I guess that is why Bullpen Banter doesn’t put any stock in floor. I personally think floor is a reasonable assumption of what they will settle in as at the MLB level just as ceiling is a reasonable assumption of the perfect world scenario of a player.

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I thought he could be a good SS (thanks to the defense), but had little chance of being elite. I thought he was a safe bet to be a solid big leaguer. I thus considered him a top 20 caliber prospect. And in fact, he certainly hasn’t proven to be an average MLB player yet.

I should revise that to include the assumption that the player doesn’t suffer a career altering injury. I weigh my opinion most heavily on what I think a guy’s most likely outcome is. I do think ceiling and floor are legitimate tools, and find the notion that I don’t take them into consideration to be misguided. I see no reason to carelessly put an MLB regular floor on a player. That is exceedingly high praise. Lastly, I am speaking for myself, not the other members of Bullpen Banter.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Well that was me just being sarcastic more than anything. After reading my above comments though, I don’t think I effectively expressed what I feel floor is. Point still remains that if you truly believe floor is the lowest possible outcome for a player then it has zero value because all players still have a chance to fail (and I don’t just mean injuries).

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Justin O'Conner...

there’s a few other guys who stand out to me (Jesse Biddle, Wimmers), but O’Conner looks like he’ll be a stud C or 2B.

by SenorGato on Oct 2, 2025 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

I liked O’Connor to but just not too confident in him. He has a long way to go, the debut certainly didn’t help my confidence in him either. :(

by jfish26101 on Oct 2, 2025 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

And who intuitively worries you from the same class?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 2, 2025 1:03 PM EDT reply actions

different post

I’ll talk about that in a different post

by John Sickels on Oct 2, 2025 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

5th rounder but Nate Roberts...I know you had him as a sleeper and I've talked about him

while he may not have 1 great tool, his all around game and his plate discipline I think are better than he gets credit for.

by Dbullsfan on Oct 2, 2025 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

+1

yes, roberts. and eddie rosario too

by John Sickels on Oct 2, 2025 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Intuition

I fired my “intuition manager”. Last year it told me that Max Stassi was the steal of the draft and he would mucho outperform that other slacker catcher prospect named Myers or something like that. I mean, seriously, the Royals minor league organization can NEVER have that many quality prospects, right?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Oct 2, 2025 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

Too early to get down on Stassi I think

The defense is certainly there, and he did show surprising power.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

He's not the best catching prospect in the A's system anymore

Ryan Ortiz. You heard it here first, folks.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Oct 3, 2025 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Can't say I agree with that, but time will tell

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 3, 2025 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Rick Hague

I’ve been sold on him since before the draft

by ADLC on Oct 2, 2025 4:21 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting.

I liked him too, only reinforced by his performance after the draft. What position does he play, though? He might have enough bat for second or third base, but it’s no sure thing. If he can stay at shortstop, I like him a lot more.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Oct 2, 2025 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

He cannot

Third base is his most likely position.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

If that's the case

I still like him, but objectively I’m a little iffier about his potential. He doesn’t appear better than solid-average in patience, hit tool, or power, so his defense at third base would have to be pretty exceptional to make him more than a solid regular.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Oct 2, 2025 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

That's why he was a third round pick

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 2, 2025 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

At one point...

He was considered a potential first rounder, and some did think he would stay at shortstop. He fell because he had a bad first half of the season with Rice and was moved off of shortstop due to errors.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Oct 3, 2025 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Nats have been playing him at SS by the way.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Oct 3, 2025 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions

He doesn't have the range for SS either

There was hope coming into the year that he could stick, but it looked bleaker and bleaker as the year went on. Same with Derek Dietrich.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 3, 2025 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions

From BA's write up:

He has the arm strength to play shortstop or third base, but he lacks the range for short and doesn’t have the true power for third. Scouts acknowledge that Hague has decent tools and love his makeup, but he doesn’t profile well at any position because he doesn’t have the quickness for second base or the offensive production for an outfield corner.

Andy:

While playing for Team USA, he moved to third base in deference to Christian Colon, and that move showed scouts some intriguing tools at a position he’s likely to play as a pro. His tools are all right around the average category, and it’s only his plus makeup and work ethic that causes him to be projected as a potential starting third baseman at the next level. His hit tool is an above-average raw tool that has been put to the test this spring. He went through an extended case of draftitis early in the year, but since he’s woken up, he’s been on a tear and showed his true talent. His raw power is just about average, which isn’t great for a third baseman, but it’s enough to keep pitchers honest. He’s only a fringe-average runner, but he showed above-average range and an above-average arm at third last summer. Even with his slump, he fits in the third to sixth round range this year, and he’s likely to sign after ending the year on a hot streak.

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/7/15/1570427/3-83-washington-nationals-rick

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Oct 3, 2025 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I've seen those.

I’ve also seen some other reports which were more positive about his defense and his chance to stick at shortstop. I don’t know whether the Nationals think he has a legitimate chance to play shortstop in the majors, but it appears they are giving it a try. I don’t want to rule it out entirely until they do.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Oct 3, 2025 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions

The topic was intuitive

There is something about him, either makeup or just seeing him play, that makes me think he will be an above average ML player. And as a 3rd rounder that to me is pretty good. Do I think he will be a top 10 player in his class? Nope. But top 20-25? Sure.

by ADLC on Oct 3, 2025 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Track Record for Intuitive Picks?

John, do you have a file of previous years’ intuitive picks you could reference? I wonder if you would see patterns emerging, or how successful Intuitive John has been at divining players who later broke out.

by FlipYrWhig on Oct 2, 2025 11:19 PM EDT reply actions

sleeper alert

There is a lot of crossover with the Sleeper Alerts from the book,and i analyze those every year.

by John Sickels on Oct 3, 2025 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Corey Vaughn and Akeel Morris

by Fanon on Oct 3, 2025 11:05 AM EDT reply actions

Hey!

Something positive about J.R. Bradley! Unfortunately, hard to find much of that these days…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMMxIAn_76g - NSFW - "Now my blood feels like it's a bubble bath and you guys look like you're made out of cotton candy and this guy's a hippo!"

by IHateSouthBend on Oct 4, 2025 7:10 AM EDT reply actions

Interesting concept John

Christian Colon and Cody Buckel would be near the top of my list.

Also, John, I would be interested in seeing the list of picks that your gut tells you won’t make a splash in the majors. I’m assuming that would probably have about the same number of players on it as the positive list you posted.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Oct 4, 2025 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

Cool

another Buckel vote. I forgot Colon. Despite being an early pick and fairly high profile, a lot of folks are down on him due to a perceived low ceiling. Count me in the camp that thinks he’s a quality every day SS.

by blackoutyears on Oct 4, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions