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Prospect Smackdown: Bobby Borchering vs. Matt Davidson

More photos » Rick Scuteri - AP

about 1 year ago: Arizona Diamondbacks first round draft pick Bobby Borchering takes batting practice before playing the Los Angeles Dodgers during a National League baseball game on Friday, Aug. 14, 2009, in Phoenix. The Arizona Diamondbacks signed first-round draft pick Borchering to a minor league contract that includes a $1.8 million signing bonus. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Per Reader Request, here is a Prospect Smackdown between two Arizona Diamondbacks prospects, Bobby Borchering and Matt Davidson.

Star-divide

 Background and Intangibles
Borchering: Bobby Borchering was drafted in the first round in 2009, 16th overall, out of high school in Fort Myers, Florida. He was considered one of the top high school hitters available last year, projected to hit for average and power and drawing comparisons to a young Chipper Jones, although Borchering's defense was rougher. There were no complaints about his makeup, and he had a high profile as an amateur. It was necessary to buy him out of baseball at the University of Florida, costing $1.8 million.

Davidson:
Matt Davidson was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, 35th overall, out of high school in Yucaipa, California. Like Borchering, Davidson performed well as an amateur and was quite familiar to scouts on the showcase circuit. He was considered a less polished hitter than Borchering, less likely to hit for average and in greater need of refinement. His glove was considered shaky, but his makeup was well-regarded. It cost $900,000 to keep him away from baseball at Southern Cal.

Advantage:
Borchering was a better (or at least more polished) amateur player, although both had high profiles and commitments to big baseball schools. Both came from warm-weather states and had lots of exposure. Neither has makeup problems. I'd call this even in most respects, with Borchering a slight edge on background due to superior performance as an amateur.

Physicality, Health, and Tools
Borchering: Borchering is a 6-3, 200 pound switch-hitter, born October 25th, 1990. His best physical tools are power and arm strength: he has a strong arm, more than adequate for third base. However, his footwork needs a lot more polish, and he'll never be more than an average defender at the hot corner, especially if his lower half thickens up as he gets older. There's talk he may end up at first base, given that he doesn't really run well enough to play the outfield. At whatever position, the thing that will make or break him is the bat. He has outstanding bat speed and raw power. Scouts have generally rated his swing from the left side as stronger than from the right, though the numbers didn't back that up this year (see below). He makes an effort to work the count and will take a walk, although he's shown a propensity to swing and miss in pro ball a bit more than scouts expected.

Davidson:
Davidson is a 6-3, 225 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born March 26, 1991. His two best physical tools are power and arm strength. He has a third base arm, but lacks speed and had problems with his footwork at third base. He doesn't run well enough to play a good outfield, so first base will be his destination if third doesn't work out. On offense, Davidson features enormous power, even more than Borchering. He was considered a less-polished hitter in high school, with contact issues against quality stuff and raw swing mechanics, but has made progress refining them as a pro, although more needs to be done. He's made an effort to work the count as a pro, but strikes out a lot ,as expected.

Advantage:
I think this is really even. Both of these guys are big, lack running speed, have strong throwing arms, but rough defense at third base. Both have great physical strength; Davidson has a bit more raw power, but Borchering's switch-hitting flexibility is an advantage. Most scouts still see him as a more complete hitter in the long run, although Davidson made progress in that department this year.

Current Performance
Borchering: Borchering hit .270/.341/.423 in 135 games for South Bend, with 54 walks, 128 strikeouts, 31 doubles, and 15 homers in 523 at-bats, posting a .763 OPS, +6 percent for the Midwest League. He was stronger against lefties (.829 OPS, .740 against right-handers) which was the opposite expectation from pre-season scouting reports. He was hot late, hitting .305/.385/.532 in August/Sept. An unlucky BABIP was probably a factor early in the year. He spent 51 games as a DH and played 84 at third base, with poor results: .892 fielding percentage, a very low double play rate, and a poor range factor.

Davidson:
Davidson hit .289/.371/.504 in 113 games for South Bend, with 43 walks, 109 strikeouts, 35 doubles, and 16 homers, posting a .874 OPS, +22 percent for the Midwest League. Promoted to the California League, he hit .169/.298/.268 in 21 games, drawing some walks with 12 free passes in 71 at-bats, but fanning 25 times. His overall season line was .272/.360/.469, with 36 doubles, 18 homers, 55 walks, and 134 strikeouts. Davidson played 72 games at third base and 61 as a DH, fielding .919 with a very low double play rate and average range factors.

Advantage:
The Midwest League is pro-pitching and South Bend is a tough environment for hitters; both of these guys had good season with the bat, though Davidson's was stronger overall. He didn't hit well in the Cal League but the sample was small and he did draw some walks. Both of them struck out a lot; both of them drew a fair number of walks. Both of these guys were butchers with the glove, although Davidson wasn't as bad. Overall, Davidson has the advantage in 2010 performance.

Projection
Borchering:
Midwest League sources still see Borchering as a guy who can become a complete hitter, with a higher average and OBP than he showed this year, with the potential for 30 homers a season, although he needs some adjustments. His defensive metrics are dismal and it seems likely he'll end up at first base, although if I were the Diamondbacks I can understand leaving him at third base awhile longer to see if he improves.

Davidson:
Davidson projects as a lower batting average player compared to Borchering, but with even more power. He showed more polish than expected this season and some believe his batting average and OBP will be higher than originally anticipated, though not everyone believes this. His defensive stats were ugly but not as bad as Borchering's, and he actually fielded pretty well at Visalia, at least in terms of making fewer errors.

Advantage:
If each maximizes his potential as scouts expect, both should be very successful major league hitters, although the shapes would be different: Borchering being more of a .290-.300, 25-30 homer guy, with Davidson more of a .250-.270, 30+ homer player. Based on 2010 performance, Davidson has a better chance to stick at third, although that could change. He's also five months younger. I'd call this even.

Summary
This is really tough. I call it virtually even on intangibles, physical tools, and projection, with Borchering a slight edge in amateur background and Davidson an edge in 2010 performance. Does that mean I would rate Davidson ahead of Borchering on a prospect list? To tell you the truth, I'm not sure. The smackdown process would indicate that I should, but I don't know yet, and fortunately I don't have to decide that until I get into writing the book. It will be interesting to see which one ranks higher on the Baseball America Midwest League prospect list due out on October 1st.

What do you guys think?

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Based on this

Where do you expect Mark Reynolds to be in 2012-2013?

Wear your own fur.

by Sprankton on Sep 29, 2025 4:20 PM EDT reply actions  

either at 1st base or on another team

If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic

by mathisrocks5 on Sep 29, 2025 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d take the switch hitting, more polished Borchering because I think Davidson could struggle at higher levels, I know it was a small sample but he got chewed up pretty bad in the cal league. .

by THESWAMI6 on Sep 29, 2025 4:22 PM EDT reply actions  

You sure about that with Davidson?

He drew some walks, hit a couple homers, and had a .227 BABIP with Visalia. If you’re expecting that to continue, sure, he’ll continue to struggle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMMxIAn_76g - NSFW - "Now my blood feels like it's a bubble bath and you guys look like you're made out of cotton candy and this guy's a hippo!"

by IHateSouthBend on Sep 30, 2025 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Awesome Job

Thanks for doing this. They seemed like a perfect pair for a smackdown, and your analysis backed that up.

by auclairkeithbc on Sep 29, 2025 4:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Can anyone think of a team that had two prominent prospects who had so many similarities?

Same position, same age, same draft class, similar offensive profile, similar defensive issues.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2025 4:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks John

for doing this request. Good read.

by BryceHarper on Sep 29, 2025 6:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice, thanks.

Question. How good would their discipline profile in the majors? (both K’s and walks)

by CaptainCanuck on Sep 29, 2025 8:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Surprising

I find it surprising that scouts would label Borchering as the high average guy and Davidson as the power guy, since Davidson has the more compact swing right now. Borchering had a very streaky season, which could just be a by-product of his being a switch-hitter. Still, I would have to give a more-than-modest edge to Davidson at this point.

by BaseballEvolution on Sep 29, 2025 9:38 PM EDT reply actions  

since Davidson has the more compact swing right now

I was under the impression Davidson had a very long swing and its been an issue. . I haven’t seen a whole lot of both, admittedly.

Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Likes to get fully extended

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/05/16/matt-davidson-report

and his swing can be a bit slow at times due to a significant load

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9958

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 4:56 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Both reports

are based on 2009 info (KG’s post is Jan 2010 which means he’s basing comments on 2009 performance by default0 right? I’d be interested in reports on both guys based on 2010 viewings to make the case one way or the other.

by blackoutyears on Sep 30, 2025 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm curious to see if anyone has anything more recent.

This is all I could come up with… but I could have sworn I read something more recent about this but can’t find anything. Like I said, I haven’t heard a whole lot about either, but I actually had the note “long swing” next to Davidson in my notes. Its possible I’m just an idiot, though, as always.

Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Self-deprecation

will get you nowhere! lol

Interestingly, Davidson made the BA MWL Top 20 and Borchering just missed the cut. I believe the first question in the ensuing chat was about Borchering’s exclusion, and while Callis didn’t go into detail, I believe he dinged him for a definitive inability to play 3B and the fact that scouts didn’t love any tool but the power.

It’s just one source, but interesting following so closely on John’s own breakdown.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2025 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

These guys are both super tough for me to place.

I want to like them both, but they’re both big, unathletic kids who have strikeout too much. I do think both end up at 1B.

I did like Borchering a lot as an amateur and when he was drafted… was just looking at my 3B prospect list I started a couple weeks back and I had Davidson one above Borchering… but for the life of me I can’t recall why. Probably the edge in power.

Really tough call. The more I look at them the more I think neither is all that great.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 4:47 AM EDT reply actions  

The more I look at them the more I think neither is all that great.

You’re a tough judge, Al. lol

I think the lingering concerns over position hurt both; both profile as very solid hitters but would have to really deliver with the bat if they’re just 1B/LF types. That said, there’s real power here, and both posted promising on-base percentages that were well-supported by walks and not simply average-driven. IIRC, isn’t Davidson’s season marked by book-ends of high strikeout rates ? Seems like he was striking out a ton in the early going (brutal April K:BB I believe), got it under control in the middle of the year, and then whiffed a lot following his promotion.

by blackoutyears on Sep 30, 2025 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the lingering concerns over position hurt both; both profile as very solid hitters but would have to really deliver with the bat if they’re just 1B/LF types.

That’s really the crux of it for me.

& as 1B/LF types I have some reservations about their bats. I’m sure we’ll see both these guys in the bigs at some point, but it seems the bust factor is pretty high here. They’re more like back end top 100 types to at best… maybe top 125 guys. They remind me of Nick Weglarz.

Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

but it seems the bust factor is pretty high here in terms of these guys being top prospects/star players.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 30, 2025 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Weglarz

is a good name. Definitely one to file away as these two advance. I like Wegs, but he’s interesting to me in the same way that Jason Kubel was/is, not as a star.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2025 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another Prospect Smackdown request: Daniel Fields v. Francisco Martinez

At age 19, both had good (but not great) seasons in the FSL.

by Dberg on Sep 30, 2025 8:25 PM EDT reply actions  


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