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Breaking New Ground in Baseball

Here is something that has been on my mind lately.

If you were GM of a major league team, and you could hire three of the best sabermetric minds in the country, and put them to work on a problem to solve, what problem would you give them?  Don't worry about who the sabermetrics minds are...assume that they are extremely bright, knowledgable about both numbers and baseball in general, and motivated to succeed. 

Call this the Manhattan Project of Baseball. You take these guys, give them all the money they want for research and access to any information they need, and give them problem to work on. What project would you give them?

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Come up with the perfect defensive metric

I would want the experts to come up with the ultimate defensive metric. There are so many variables that come into play with defense and if someone were able to accurately predict how many runs a player could save it would be unbelievably valuable.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 28, 2025 7:57 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

Buster Posey>
"Screw it, Redbull time"-Brian Wilson

by Gobroks on Sep 28, 2025 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is a stat needed for that?

Isn’t it basically tell us who is really good defensively, which we know already by watching games?

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 28, 2025 8:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yes.

People are subjective. Numbers are not.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 28, 2025 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aren't individual stats

Pretty much flawed too though?

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 28, 2025 9:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Hence the perfect stat...

To clear that up. Much better than just watching some player and trying to subjectively figure out how goo they are.

Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com

by Franchise887 on Sep 28, 2025 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL

Bingo. This is the definition of Breaking New Ground.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

don't know about individual stats

but I know that commas are flawed, though.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 29, 2025 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Statistics are subjective.

Someone needs to define the parameters and if the parameters are flawed, the statistic is flawed. People create the parameters.
For fielding, what would the parameters be? The amount of range a player has, where he places himself prior to the play, his knowledge of what to do when the play occurs, his arm strength? How should these things be weighted? What do you use for a base line? There is no such thing as the perfect statistic because people won’t be able to agree on the perfect parameters.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by garrioch13 on Sep 29, 2025 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

MLB is already on it

They have a system in the works/in place in one stadium that tracks the movement of each player before the ball is hit, then as the ball is hit that also tracks the time and distance that the ball takes to get there. In a few years we will be able to figure it all out when the system is in place at all stadiums and we have the data (assuming MLBAM allows the data to be free like the Pitch F/X data is currently).

by dougdirt on Sep 28, 2025 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

So you

compile all this “data” to determine who is great defensively, and then what? You build a team based on defense? Isn’t that what Seattle has done?

Or is this like a fantasy baseball thing, where we want a great defensive stat that can be added as a category for a roto league.

thanks apox for your input, greatly helping the conversation.

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 29, 2025 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's a tool

And you use it as such. It helps you decide how much a player is worth. This doesn’t have to be black and white, the end all of whether or not to sign a player. It’s more information, which is the key to running ANY organization.

by Tim's Neighbor on Sep 29, 2025 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Names and primary responsibilites

Brian Carthwright - Projection Systems (creator of Oliver, I like his take on the minor leagues)

Mike Fast - F/X Studies

Colin Wyers - The man. He can do anything.

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by JDSussman on Sep 28, 2025 8:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Specificly

If I only had one data set that I could with all the data in the world, I would look at the Field F/X data. From there, I would have them create a myriad of things.

1. Fielding Analysis. I don’t think one metric is really all that helpful, unless of course, it is a WAR type which is calculated from components.
2. I’d have Brian create defensive aging curves
3. I’d have Mike chart batted ball velocity vs. launch angle vs. outcome and see what features of batted balls are most successful (eliminating the term LD, FB, etc.)
4. I’d have Colin reevaluate positional adjustments via fielding difficultly.

I wrote this in 1 minute. I’m sure I could think of 100000 more ideas.

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by JDSussman on Sep 28, 2025 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd try to win the war of BABIP

Figure out the perfect predictive measure for what happens when a ball is in play. Whatever way, however minor, hitters and pitchers can control the outcome - and which fielders are best at helping their pitchers with that goal.

"By MLB.TV, we can see J. Hamilton's homer, M. Young's clutch, and N. Feliz's explosive. All about Rangers things can be our interest"
--South Korean Rangers fan

by Conjunction on Sep 28, 2025 8:13 PM EDT reply actions  

This is what I would do

You have to measure things like speed of the ball off the bat and the trajectory of batted balls… Hit F/X. They are already developing a system to do this in line with what Pitch F/X already does, so there should be a lot of new research coming out once that data is available.

I’d also like to see more studies on positioning in fielding. I’ve seen articles about how Chase Utley has such good UZR numbers not because he has amazing range (although its pretty good) but because he’s positioned so well. If he can get such an advantage through positioning, it should be something that the rest of the league should be able to do - positioning should be extremely coachable.

Defensive positioning also ties in with the HitF/X data, though. If you can predict more reliably what a given player will do when he puts the bat on the ball you can figure out how to defend him much better. Granted the data to do that is already there mostly, but this could help be even more exact for every given hitter.

by oplaid on Sep 28, 2025 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sort of off topic

I don’t think you need sabermetric centric analysts for it but I’ve always been interested in psychological assessment.

The initial reason I became interested in it was I remember reading stories about how John Smoltz was nearly out of baseball before a sport psychologist helped him get on track. It came to my attention because he actually gave the sport psychologist credit for his eventual HoF career in a few interviews. It’s sort of corny but all those sayings about sports being largely mental yet a lot of people in athletics still shy away from it.

I’m not sure any sound work that stands up against hundreds, thousands of tests will ever be completed but that has been something that I’ve found interesting.

by jfish26101 on Sep 28, 2025 8:33 PM EDT reply actions  

also off topic

but how biomechanical analysis can help pitchers fine tune their mechanics

Yankee 2010 Shadow Draft
1. A.J Cole-SP
2. Austin Wilson-RF
3. Jesse Hahn-SP
4. A.J Vanegas-SP
5. Kevin Gausman-SP
6. Kris Bryant-1B

by Lurkingoutside on Sep 28, 2025 9:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Exactly

I would have them on this, with a focus on Pitcher Durability of course. The team that can conquer, or at least get a lead on reducing the incredibly high level of arm injuries would have a huge advantage.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. - Rogers Hornsby

BallKnowledge

by Shutdown on Sep 29, 2025 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’d probably set them to work trying to measure manager performance. See if there’s anyway of measuring their impact on the teams they have managed over the years.

by ayjackson on Sep 28, 2025 10:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Catcher "game-calling" value

Using Pitch f/x data, determine whether or not catchers have a tangible game-calling effect on pitchers.

I’d imagine this would be somewhat simple to calculate in the abstract - instead of catcher ERA, measures something like catcher wFB, catcher wCB, etc.

by ThomasG on Sep 28, 2025 10:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I might forgo the saberists

and focus on either psychology or injury prevention.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 28, 2025 10:41 PM EDT reply actions  

you bring up an interesting point, John

Hiring 3 such minds at 80k each for a year would still be much cheaper than even a minimum salary player, but it’s not hard to imagine the returns of such dedicated research being worth much, much more to a team than that cost.

by mrkupe on Sep 28, 2025 11:18 PM EDT reply actions  

You don’t think a quarter million invested into statistical analysis could be profitable?

by jfish26101 on Sep 28, 2025 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

K, must have read it wrong.

by jfish26101 on Sep 28, 2025 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is there a single team that doesn't spend that much already?

I have to think the Mariners did. They’re turning in around right?

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2025 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

anyone who is capable of solving the real questions in baseball

isn’t going to work for a combined 80K/year including benefits…

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Oct 1, 2025 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

pitching, pitching, and more pitching

Pitching has a lot more progress to make. I’m not satisfied with TINSTAAPP. Give me biomechanical analysis to tune mechanics and a rigorously tested and optimized training program. Let me know whether the pitch counts common today truly make sense. Should we change the size of rotations? Make more use of piggybacking? Are there pitches I should tell my pitchers not to throw? There are lots of things we could optimize if we thoroughly and meticulously documented the training, mechanics, and performance of a generation of pitchers.

Besides the conditioning and health issues, I want to see much more emphasis on coaching pitchers, teaching them to pitch, and having scouts look for pitchers who are very teachable.

by rlwhite on Sep 28, 2025 11:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Hmmm...

I was going to say I would want some doctors with my sabermatricians. There’s so much to be discovered about training and projecting projection if that makes sense…

You gotta think this is being researched though…I think there’s a noticeable difference in how teams treat pitchers in the past decade or so…the teams I’m exposed to most (Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rays) generally seem to have a 100-115 limit for the starter and generally they don’t have their short relievers throw alot of pitches or pitch the day after heavy use.

I’d also want to ask about defense…specifically how much emphasis should be put on positioning players based on a hitters hit spread stats on a consistent basis…I’m not sure it’s emphasized enough but if you know where a guy tends to hit the ball then thats an advantage for the defense.

by SenorGato on Sep 29, 2025 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

how we use pitchers

five man rotation, set up man, closer is such orthodoxy nowadays, but is it even close to being the best way to utilize pitchers? How should pitchers be utilized?

by Dalman on Sep 28, 2025 11:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Is there a link between non-textbook mechanics and being a good pitcher

I can’t tell you how many times I have been watching a game with my brother and he says that some pitcher throws like a idiot and siad pitcher throws in the upper 90s and has a filthy slider. Is there a link between these two, that is what I want to know

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"I’ve been beer-cussed!" Steelfever
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Sep 28, 2025 11:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I would spend the money on low level player valuation

develop a model that has been tested from thousands of player seasons to identify the players that will become average or better major leaguers off of 2 seasons or less of data

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Sep 28, 2025 11:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I am kind of working on that

I’ve created two formulas for pitchers and hitters. I have over 42000 player seasons combined. 40% of the players that fit into this profile make it to the majors. 11% of players that are not in this range make it to the majors.
Pitchers are tougher. Only 32% of the players that fit into my profile make it to the majors but only 8% of pitchers that make it, do not fit into this.
I only use one season worth of statistics at a time, but players that fit it one season tend to repeat, especially the better prospects. Many others only fit into it one or two seasons that they spent in the minors. I have broken it down by league and by age to show the highest percentages of success. It gets more accurate as the player moves into higher levels but I do believe I can make it more accurate. These odds are not great, but once you narrow it to this level, you can pick out players that fit in other ways. It narrows the scope a little.
In the pdf I am going to create this off-season it will have a note whether the player fit’s in this profile or not. I’m not going to go into what it is composed of though. I don’t know how much more I will be able to progress on it, but as long as I have time, which is depleting, and enjoy it, I’ll keep working on it. It’s like a puzzle that I want to solve, but I don’t know if I ever will or can.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by garrioch13 on Sep 29, 2025 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

lots and lots of backwards stepwise regression

I would expect the problems are going to lie in the collection of the variables and compiling the data files more than anything else..

What software are you using?

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Sep 29, 2025 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know what that means

I know very little about academic statistics. I just play with the numbers until they give me the numbers I want.
I compile the data manually and use excel. It’s very time consuming but it helps me relax and not think about other things.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by garrioch13 on Sep 29, 2025 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

man oh man....

If you got questions about using a software package to help you do this email me @

laxtonto@hotmail.com

Basically backwards stepwise regression takes all of your variables you are using and fits them in a model and then starts taking ones away that tend to be insignificant and eventually it fits the data into a best case model. The main problem with a heuristic approach is that you may unintentionally build some bias into your system by overweighting particular parts that you think are key components when they may only be minor.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Sep 30, 2025 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Write me a program that I can use to manage a baseball team in place of an actual manager

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 28, 2025 11:53 PM EDT reply actions  

That seems rather useless.

though I’m not sure you’re serious.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 29, 2025 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

part of what I mean

is that I think it would be much more fruitful to just hire a manager you trust to both be a leader of people and who has a command of basic sabermetric principles in tactics. Then spend your saber money on something else.

When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.

by t ball on Sep 29, 2025 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Project:

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 28, 2025 11:55 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

If he makes his shirt into a basket

then he can hold twice as many as he has

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 29, 2025 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

He is at work

and for some unkown reason he has limes and can’t untuck his shirt

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"I’ve been beer-cussed!" Steelfever
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Sep 29, 2025 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Plausable

so he works somewhere in the Caribbean

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"I’ve been beer-cussed!" Steelfever
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Sep 29, 2025 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

This may be obvious

but one stat to define a player

Bring in Bard.
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Sep 29, 2025 12:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Explain how...

And give evidence. Team WAR and team wins have a correlation of .99, with an r-squared of .76 (sample: 2002-2008). WAR (the Fangraphs version) is based on pretty much all of the most advanced statistics publicly available. Even before you say it, I’ll cut you off: The UZR component only makes the defensive part of the stat non-predictive, it is still descriptive. That is to say, a guy may be -1 WAR defensively one year, even though his true talent is +1 WAR, but he was still -1 WAR that year…it happened, it just didn’t reveal his true talent level.

Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com

by Franchise887 on Sep 29, 2025 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Problems with WAR:

1. It is a counting stat. If there are 2 equal players, the one who plays more will have a higher WAR. This is similar to runs and RBIs. One player could actually be better than another, but if the other one has more playing time he may have a higher WAR

2. It doesn’t take into account the timeliness of hitting.

3. Defense if very hard to judge. There still isn’t a universally accepted way to judge defense. A player may be judged to be 30 runs by one source (i.e. Fangraphs), while another source (i.e. Baseball reference) may judge the player to be -15 runs. Until we find the ultimate stat for defense, I take any +/ Run stat with a grain of salt.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry about the formatting

Not sure what happened there.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hyphens before a word and after a word without spaces leads to the strike thru… and I agree with the above.

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2025 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

What?

1. Obviously the one who plays more should get more value. It’s ridiculous to suggest otherwise unless one player is inferior to the other which is irrelevant since you said equal. A player that doesn’t play shouldn’t get any value because he didn’t do anything.Obviously the one who plays more should get more value. It’s ridiculous to suggest otherwise unless one player is inferior to the other which is irrelevant since you said equal. A player that doesn’t play shouldn’t get any value because he didn’t do anything.

2. And what does?

3.Yes defense is hard to judge but unless there’s a stat better than UZR then it is the closest thing to quantify player defense.

by Lolmoarpl0x on Sep 29, 2025 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Response

1. Player A plays 120 games and Player B plays 150 games. Player A puts up a better stat line per game, but not better counting numbers. People who look at their WAR would assume that Player B is more valuable. However, if Player A received the same playing time he would outperform Player B.

2. Fangraphs has a clutch stat:

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.

How it’s calculated: WPA / pLI – WPA/LI

Why you should care: Unlike tradition clutch statistics (close & late), Clutch is a much more comprehensive statistic taking into account all situations that may or may not have been high leverage. Additionally, instead of comparing a player to the rest of the field, it compares a player to himself. A player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered Clutch.

3. It may be the closest thing to quantify players defense, but it doesn’t mean it is accurate. Perhaps they need to use 3 years of data to determine how good a player is defensively.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Clutch

This is my primary issue with “clutch”: usually, a high leverage situation will take place later in the game, with a fresh reliever on the mound. The average reliever is better on a per inning basis than the average starter. if a batter hits 300 in both situations, he probably is clutch.

It’s the same for October. If Derek Jeter is a 320 hitter during both the regular season and the lower run environment of the postseason (better teams, colder weather, etc.), then he probably is a clutch ballplayer. This is especially true because in the post season, teams tend to play for 1 run rather than the 3 run homer, due to offensive scarcity.

by GuyinNY on Sep 29, 2025 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

You just answered your own question

1. Player B was more valuable than Player A because he was on the field providing value. Value is accumulative, it’s not a rate. That’s not a flaw with WAR, that’s a flaw with the public’s understanding of WAR.

2.What’s the problem here? A .300 hitter is a .300 hitter. If he does better in close-and-late situations, does that mean he wasn’t trying as hard earlier in the game?

3. So take the UZR marks with a grain of salt, and slightly adjust them (and WAR as a function of that) as necessary. This shouldn’t ruin WAR for anyone, and it’s something that will only improve in time.

People who don’t like WAR simply aren’t willing to take the time to understand it.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2025 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

What makes UZR any good at all?

How in the world can you make a wild statement like it is close to quantifying defense?

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2025 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is close to quantifying defense.

So is +/-. So is PMR.

Maybe you don’t see it. Maybe you don’t want to see it.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 29, 2025 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

RE
One player could actually be better than another, but if the other one has more playing time he may have a higher WAR

That definitely does happen, but that’s not a flaw with WAR at all. WAR shows how valuable a player was to his team in a given year. It doesn’t attempt to say who is more talented or a better player, simply who provided more value to their team.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 29, 2025 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

I guess my problem is that people tend to use WAR to state who is a better player. In fact, Lolmoarpl0x stated that WAR is the one stat that defines a player. In reality, it does not define the player, but just attempts to state how they performed that season.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Define

I guess it depends what you and the OP mean by “one stat to define a player”. I’m not sure you can develop a stat to determine which player is more talented or gifted or anything like that. Some times the more talented players succeed at a high level, other times the most talented players never realize their full potential.

WAR maybe not be entirely perfect at this point, but I think once we have Hit/FX data it’s going to be awfully damn close because that should help solve the only remaining issue-defense. I know your issues with the UZR component of WAR, but again it’s not trying to determine how good of a defender a player is just how well they played defensively that year.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 29, 2025 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with this 100%

Once we have a better defensive metric in place, WARs value will increase exponentially. I would also like to see them include a clutch stat to determine how somebody performs in a certain situation.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

As you mentioned above in regards to Clutch

If you take the top 15 hitters as ranked by WPA/LI you can see a very strong correlation to wOBA which is the hitting component of WAR. Here is the top 15 hitters by WPA/LI with their wOBA and WAR rankings included:

1. Joey Votto( #2, #2)
2. Albert Pujols(#6, #3)
3. Miguel Cabrera(#3, #10)
4. Jose Bautista(#4, #7)
5. Josh Hamilton(#1, #1)
6. Paul Konerko(#7, #31)
7. Carlos Gonzalez(#5, #13)
8. Matt Holliday(#9, #8)
9. Adrian Gonzalez(#23, #16)
10. Jason Heyward(#25, #32)
11. Aubrey Huff(#14, #19)
12. Prince Fielder(#15, #45)
13. Jayson Werth(#10, #25)
14. Ryan Braun(#19, #47)
15. Shin-Soo Choo(#18, #14)

While it may not exactly be accounted for in wOBA or WAR, you can see a strong correlation with those figures and the WPA/LI numbers. Generally speaking anyone that has a large gap between their wOBA and/or WPA/LI rankings and their WAR rankings are players who play less valuable defensive positions and play them poorly(Braun, Konerko, Fielder). I’m not really sure what kind of difference we’d see in WAR values if WPA/LI was added in somehow.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 29, 2025 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, basically

Your problem isn’t with WAR, it’s with the public’s misapplication and misunderstanding of how to properly use the statistic.

Wouldn’t educating people on how to use WAR be better than simply dismissing it?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2025 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

WAR/Games Played

a stat like that would provide a comparison for players based on equal ground of what they provided to their team on a per game basis.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 29, 2025 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

But durability and being on the field has value

That’s a big part of WAR- it’s about value, which is accumulated over time.

I would rather have a guy bat .300/.380/.550 for 160 games than have a guy bat .320/.410/.600 for 110 games.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.

by Satchel Price on Sep 30, 2025 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

uy

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by JDSussman on Sep 29, 2025 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

That description of UZR is highly imaginative

You’re wishing that it was accurate and declaring in so because its possible and would take a lot of effort to disprove.

by JetSam on Sep 29, 2025 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're bashing someone for not taking the time to argue their point

… in a single sentence?

UZR is flawed, but that doesn’t make it worthless. More data, and it becomes far more valuable. Less data, and you have to put it into perspective. Mesh together the use of UZR and scouting reports.

Nobody is saying that UZR is the end-all, be-all.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2025 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Before we get back into this topic

Are you still using B-Ref’s WAR or are you using Fangraphs’ WAR like you’re supposed to.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 29, 2025 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah..

You really shouldn’t use B-R WAR for any season after 2001. FanGraphs WAR is definitely the preferred method, it just can’t be implemented for seasons that pre-date batted ball data.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2025 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

My other problem

That there isn’t just one stat for WAR. Different sites have different WARs. The defensive stats part is just way too arbitrary in my opinion, especially since defensive metrics for one year of data are very inaccurate.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Disregard that there is more than one WAR.

As Satchel just pointed out… B-R’s WAR is supposed to be used for pre 2002 situations. That’s only because we don’t have any data for UZR before that.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 29, 2025 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's for hitters, at least

Rally and FanGraphs calculate their WAR differently for pitchers, though.

FanGraphs bases their Pitcher WAR on FIP, while Rally uses a component-based RA. There are reasons to prefer each method, although I still side with FanGraphs.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.

by Satchel Price on Sep 30, 2025 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just because it hasn't been suggested yet...

I’d like to see if we could ever appropriately dock players for PED use. Given a full data set including whoever used, what they used, how much, and for how long, it would certainly help to sort out the Steroid Era. I’d include the 60’s-80’s for greenies, but it seems that they were so incredibly ubiquitous that it really was a level playing field.

Granted, I think the time and smarts would be much better spent on biomechanics and defensive statistics. Or maybe just deciding if clutch is real, once and for all. :P

by GuyinNY on Sep 29, 2025 12:15 AM EDT reply actions  

That would be pretty difficult, especially since there isn’t a consensus opinion on the effects of PEDs on actual performance. The longer the issue is drawn out, the more and more I lean towards just ignoring the whole issue.

by jfish26101 on Sep 29, 2025 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Build the perfect team

I would have them create the optimal roster for the organization. For example, given the rotation, what would be the optimal defensive profile of all other 8 positions. Given the expected runs allowed by these optimal pitcher defense combo, find position players that fit the defensive requirements that will collectively generate more runs than the expected runs allowed + xstandard deviations.
This will imply creating a rotation first and then getting the fielders given that profile if the team already has a steady rotation or top pitching prospects, or start with the players and then find the pitchers. It would take a lot of wheeling and dealing but once the profile for the ideal pitchers and position players are established it becomes easier to keep it up.
Sort of like the Twins (strike throwers & good infield defense) but optimized with all sorts of statistical information, including park factors for pitching, outfield defense, and payroll projections.

by Cesar V on Sep 29, 2025 2:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Factor a value system for prospects

Factoring age, offense, defense and other means scaled to other value systems for big leagers helping us understand what makes a fiar deal when prospects are involved. Like was the better package for Cliff Lee? Smoak, Lueke, Beavan and Lawson or Montero +Eduardo Nunez/David Adams?

by Lolmoarpl0x on Sep 29, 2025 8:32 AM EDT reply actions  

I tried this but I'm not completely satisfied by the results.

I may have something better by this winter. Here is a google doc of the futures game roster. It’s the number on the right hand side toward the top called trade value, if you want to see the results. The number is kind of based on millions of dollars, with 25 million or so being the max.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by garrioch13 on Sep 29, 2025 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

organizational pitching project

gaining more insight into the variables that go into pitching performance including some work on what factors in prep pitchers make them sucessful pros, mechanics designed for better control and less stress on the arm (generating power from the body not arm while remaining “quiet”) to be taught at all levels of the system, conditioning/lifting programs tailored to go with taught mechanics/body types, pitch counts, how to react to minor injuries and when they can be a sign of things to come, and countless other stuff. As with what other posters have said, there is a lot to learn about maximizing value from pitchers, and if a team can be the leader in some of this, they will have a huge competitive advantage until the rest of the league catches up.

by THESWAMI6 on Sep 29, 2025 9:06 AM EDT reply actions  

"Pay For Performance" Metric

I would have them come up with a fair common scheme to pay all players on an ongoing basis based on the value of their performance & the league’s overall profitability. There would be one common year-to-year contract for all players and each owner would pay the same percentage of his profits into a common salary pool from which all players would be paid. Teams would still be allowed to trade players and players would still be allowed to become free agents if they didn’t like their treatment, the city they played for, etc.

Hopefully, this would lend some stability and fairness to the game from the fan’s standpoint.

by The Seagull on Sep 29, 2025 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

You don't need SABR geeks for that. You need lots of lawyers.

The CBA would have to be completely changed for any of this to fly.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 29, 2025 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I was thinking the same thing.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2025 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm so excited!!

(1) 2 guys actually thought one of my comments was worthy of being replied to.

(2) Where I said “profits” above, I should have said “gross”.

(3) Sadly, I must agree with “The Typical Idiot Fan”.

by The Seagull on Sep 29, 2025 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scouting

I’d take the cards and reports turned in by scouts for all players and compare them against the players actual accomplishments - taking account for injuries and determine which scouts are most successful at finding the players that deveop into useful major leaguers and which scouts do not.

by comish4lif on Sep 29, 2025 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

you don't

think they do that?

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 29, 2025 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I Do

Think that they do that - to some extent…

But are they analyzing which scouts are better at recognizing the immediate talent, or projecting talent. Are some scouts better at identifying hitters vs. pitchers, speed vs power, velocity vs movement. When a scout notes that a player will grow into his body, how often is he right?

by comish4lif on Sep 29, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lots of cool ideas here

I have one that is not so “huge” or all-encompassing, but that I’ve been wondering for a while. Are certain types of lineups or pitching staffs possible more prone to under- and over-performing their anticipated performance based purely on inputs? For example, if we have two lineups that both add up to a .330 wOBA, and one lineup is very top heavy (a stars and scrubs lineup) while the other has a bunch of above average hitters but no superstars, should we expect one to have a higher chance of succeeding than the other?

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Sep 29, 2025 10:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Interesting!

My assumption would be that by stacking a few stars atop each other, say 1-4, a team will generate more runs than it would if it were solid through the order. I say this because a really hot star player can carry a team for a bit, and so I’d imagine the stars would simply alternate. But that is my still decaffeinated, purely speculative presumption.

by GuyinNY on Sep 29, 2025 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Create the optimal team for the park

I really like “pitching mechanics and training analysis” and the “pay for performance” ideas from above.

I’d like an analysis for determining the optimal team to field for my ballpark and given conditions (ie, taking weather, humidity into account). Strikeout pitchers vs groundball, speed team vs power, critical positions requiring top-notch defensive players.

by unspider on Sep 29, 2025 12:17 PM EDT reply actions  

a saber team...

could have a fun time optimizing a team for Coors field. Of course given the team’s already extreme home/road splits, the improvement would likely be marginal. Maybe O’Dowd already has a crack team of number crunchers on the payroll.

by DenverBears on Sep 29, 2025 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

the ultimate challenge....

make the Pirates into a winning team.

by DenverBears on Sep 29, 2025 1:00 PM EDT reply actions  

+2

by Caballero Guapo on Sep 29, 2025 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Beyond the obvious things, like quantifying the value of a specific event or performance

I think the biggest focus would need to be on injuries.

Injuries have a far larger impact on the game than a poor evaluation of a player’s defensive skills, and a team that could legitimately figure out the best way to avoid injuries would immediately put themselves ahead of the pack.

Not sure how it could be addressed, but improving the durability of players could be pretty special.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2025 1:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd have them work on

finding a way to measure how to determine the upside of a potential draftee. If we’re breaking new ground here, I’d want the way to find out how to draft Pujols, ARod, etc. with some certainty before anyone else.

by Looney4baseball on Sep 29, 2025 8:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Developing Pitchers -Reducing Injury risk

whether the answer is in Japan, or Mike Marshal’s basement or the 1970 Baltimore training manual or a combination of them all and a few other 100 ideas- give me a system that minimizes injuries to young pitchers and ideal development to maximize productivity, and how can a few super freaks like Nolan Ryan throw 200 pitches -is it just biological lottery or is there some way to strengthen pitchers arms long term

by ribman on Sep 29, 2025 9:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Likely done, but I'd want the best minds on this anyway

Minor League Player Development:
I would have them research which Minor League Systems develop the best hitting and pitching talent and figure out through statistics what they do different. For example, time spent at different levels, number of pitches thrown, number of at bats, experience of minor league coaches, and whatever I/they could think of.

Draft:
I would research successful high school draft choices (possibly college) from all teams and determine what statistically (if anything) separates them from the pack (scouting grades, high school quality, size, IQ, and whatever I/they could think of.

Acquisitions:
Most analysis deals with this, but the three best minds could offer new statistical insight as to whether free agent acquisitions/trades would be a boom or a bust in a new environment.

Fan friendliness:
Lastly, I’d probably kiss up to the ownership team (especially if small market) and have them develop a formula as to what wins the most fans, enables the most wins possible, and helps the owner achieve a maximum profit.

by San D on Sep 29, 2025 10:04 PM EDT reply actions  


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