Crystal Ball: Clayton Kershaw

by John Sickels on Sep 23, 2025 5:00 PM EDT

Remember: Not a projection. This is a conversation starter.

NOTE: I did not deliberately make his ERA almost the same as Mat Latos. It just happened that way and I didn't feel like fiddling with the numbers to change it.

Poll

How does this CB compare to your expectations of Kershaw?

I expect that his peak will be better than this

199 votes

I expect that his career will last longer than this

14 votes

My expectations are very similar to this

246 votes

I expect his career won't last this long

125 votes

I expect his peak won't be this good

54 votes

638 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 54 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

That will be a very good career

Possible HOF

by Yankees10 on Sep 23, 2025 5:20 PM EDT reply actions

Seems like he got hurt between the 2023 season and the 2024 season

because nit many guys go from a 20 win season to a two win season

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"I’ve been beer-cussed!" Steelfever
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Sep 23, 2025 5:22 PM EDT reply actions

TJ early in the season?

Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.

by Whiteyballer on Sep 23, 2025 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

possible

seeing he pitched 11 games in 2025

by WVPiratesfan on Sep 23, 2025 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

This Crystal Ball is very close to my expectations

If not even a little more optimistic and I am a big Kershaw fan. 3 potential Cy Young awards in 2012, 2013, and 2015.

by MatthewD on Sep 23, 2025 6:05 PM EDT reply actions

After his monster 2015

he puts up Ted Lily/Randy Wolf like numbers.

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 23, 2025 6:10 PM EDT reply actions

Second half of his career looks very...

Andy Pettite. I can dig it…

by SenorGato on Sep 23, 2025 6:22 PM EDT reply actions

That is another player i did not mention above

I actually think its more Randy Wolf though

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 23, 2025 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah...

that curveball is very Randy Wolf/Lily.

Either way, Kershaw’s on his way to a nice career.

by SenorGato on Sep 23, 2025 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm just pointing it out by stats

probably shoulda elaborated

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 23, 2025 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions

kershaw's 2nd pitch is his slider now

not his curve.

by npurcell on Sep 24, 2025 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

How do they decide upon the team?

Anyways that’s a very good career but I wouldn’t be surprised if he peaked higher.

World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.

by Drizzzy on Sep 23, 2025 8:19 PM EDT reply actions

I'm guessing Texas home grown has him going back home

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 23, 2025 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by John Sickels on Sep 24, 2025 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions

This is exactly what Im rooting for, he's a dallas boy through and through

hoping he comes home to a bigger revenue Ranger’s team when he hits 6 yrs of service time.

The Ranger's will win the AL pennant by 2013

by blalock84 on Sep 27, 2025 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I am a gigantic Kershaw fan

and I think this is similar to my expectations. I am, though, hoping he will have more than one monster season in his career, though his time with the Dodgers looks extremely good on here.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 23, 2025 8:51 PM EDT reply actions

so who is ready to fast forward to 2015?

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2025 9:34 PM EDT reply actions

Man

All that talk about Heyward and barely any about Kershaw. Lame.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 23, 2025 9:53 PM EDT reply actions

dont you know?

he is the best player EVA!!!!!!
EVA I TELL YOU

by elpikiman on Sep 23, 2025 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions

sucks for Kershaw that he plays in the west

if he played in the east, he’d be the next baseball god already. Im happy he doesnt go to the rich teams in his career :)

And yes, I am a Yankee fan. I simply HATE the buy-the-player idea…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2025 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, clearly playing in that tiny LA market is holding back his popularity

Its the same reason no one knows about that guy Kobe, or whatever his name is.

by nixa37 on Sep 23, 2025 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

baseball in LA is not nationally covered

like it is in NY, Bos or Phi… I dont know what the big question is…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2025 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Come on now, there are plenty of stars outside the east

The reason Kershaw’s not “the next baseball god already” is that he hasn’t really done anything to make him a star to casual fans. He’s got a 25-23 career record and he’s working on his career high in wins at 12. Most fans know who he is and real fans know he has great stuff, but he really hasn’t done anything yet that would earn him the sort of title you think he deserves.

by nixa37 on Sep 23, 2025 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Except post

a 2.79 ERA as a 21 year old lefty, and a 2.98 ERA as a 22 year old. Lead the league in H/9 at 6.2 as a 21 year old, and has a 7.2 H/9 this year. Cut the walks down by over a full BB/9 and his Ks stayed close to the same. His SO/BB went up by nearly .50. He is averaging 6 1/3 innings/start, and since June, that number has risen to about 6.67…

But he has done nothing.

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2025 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Those aren't the sort of things casual fans are necessarily going to notice

You’re the one throwing out the title of next baseball god. I wasn’t saying he’s done nothing, just that he hasn’t done anything to get that sort of recognition. He post an awesome ERA last year, but he won 8 games. Big baseball fans know how great he was, but casual baseball fans aren’t going to know about it. That’s just the way it is. It doesn’t have nearly as much to do with the coast he’s pitching on as you want to think.

by nixa37 on Sep 24, 2025 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Let me make sure I make this clear

I was NOT calling him the next baseball god. I was saying that if he played in, lets say, Boston, he’d get similar hype as Buchholz did. In fact, I guarantee that most baseball fans would take Clay before Kershaw. This most definitely has to do with coast. Turn it onto ESPN, and the Dodger game will be one of the last replays played. And I mean after the Pirates vs Royals. Even last season when they had the best record in baseball, they were after most teams in baseball. ESPN is based on the east coast and shows an east coast bias. If you dont believe this is true, then we should just stop the conversation here.

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 24, 2025 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

When exactly did Clay Buchholz get a ton of hype?

Did I miss something? Did he get called the next baseball god? I heard about him as a prospect like everyone else, but I honestly had no idea how good his surface numbers were until about 6 weeks ago and I watch a ton of ESPN.

The Dodgers may show up late on the taped SportsCenter’s because there games end late and they have less time to cut the highlights. I generally watch the live SC though (you know the one based in LA) and the Dodgers get a ton of play.

by nixa37 on Sep 24, 2025 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Clay got a LOT of press when he was a prospect

and the combination of ESPN and fans on websites like this and MLBTR made him sounds like the next great thing. Hell, I think Kershaw is still slightly unknown on sites like this and fangraphs. People on the east coast do not pay attention to the west for many reasons, one of which has to do with the time differences. But also because ESPN has it set up so the east coast teams have their games, then the contending western teams, and then all the rest. And the Dodgers are always toward the back end of the rest…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 24, 2025 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Kershaw also got a lot of press

He was a top prospect. Only reason Clay was on MLBTR more was because there was a chance Clay could have been traded and the Red Sox are in on every rumor, while Kershaw was pretty much considered untouchable and the Dodgers weren’t in as many of the big rumors where someone like that might get brought up.

And seriously, Kershaw is unknown on sites like this and fangraphs? What the heck are you talking about? I’m pretty sure everyone on this site knows just how exciting of a prospect/young player Kershaw was/is. Kershaw cracked the top 50 of fangraphs trade value series, while Buchholz, the guy who gets all the press, didn’t even crack the top 50.

by nixa37 on Sep 24, 2025 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

All that is freakin sick

But the casual fan has no idea wtf most of that really means.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 24, 2025 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

ERA, hits, innings pitched and walks?

if you dont know what these stats are, you dont watch baseball…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 24, 2025 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions

The casual fan isn't you or more

They couldn’t tell you who Dee Gordon is. They couldn’t tell you that Billingsley is actually a very good pitcher, or Kuroda for that matter. The casual fan would say that Kershaw isn’t great because he doesn’t have 17 wins right now, and would say that Kuroda and Billingsley are even worse. They would also tell you that Andre Ethier is an extremely good player, lol.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 24, 2025 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Well they know what they are

They just don’t actually follow who does well in those categories other than ERA. Even then Kershaw doesn’t catch your eye because he has so few decisions, especially last year. His name has never been mentioned in the same sentence as a CYA. He’s just not the type of guys casual fans keep up with.

by nixa37 on Sep 24, 2025 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

It's a crime that Kershaw gets robbed of so many wins by the bullpen

and the lolfense the Dodgers throw out there.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 24, 2025 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions

See Hernandez, Felix

and the Seattle Mariners

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 24, 2025 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Definitely

I blame stuff like that for his lack of recognition more than I do the coast he plays on.

by nixa37 on Sep 24, 2025 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

The Lakers are a bit different than the Dodgers, even if the Dodgers had won a WS either of the last 2 years. Lakers reign supreme in LA, no matter what the Dodgers do that wouldn’t change.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 24, 2025 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Braves homers

flock in droves when the soon to be best player of all time is discussed :)

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Sep 23, 2025 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions

fwiw

heyward >>>>>>>>> kershaw.

i know comparing pitchers to positional players is ridiculous, but heyward, RIGHT NOW, is a more complete player, relative to his position, than Kershaw. and i like Kershaw.

perhaps THAT’S why people what to talk about heyward more.

calling us Braves fans homers both makes you look foolish and belittles both Kershaw AND heyward.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 24, 2025 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

how is he more complete then kershaw right now?

by matthewmafa on Sep 24, 2025 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't call anybody a homer

calling us Braves fans homers both makes you look foolish and belittles both Kershaw AND heyward.

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Sep 24, 2025 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Lol

sure thing buddy. Heyward’s got more value at the present time, but to say it’s leaps and bounds isn’t correct by any stretch. Also, how is Heyward more complete than Kershaw? Kershaw is now going 8 innings regularly and he’s walking 1 or 2 guys a a game quite often, and a handful of games off the top of my head where he hasn’t walked a single one. Heyward is doing really good, but Kershaw is doing better IMO, irregardless of what their WARs might say.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 25, 2025 5:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Kershaw has made improvements, no doubt

But he isn’t regularly going 8 innings a start, unless by regularly you mean five times all season. Sure, he’s done it in two of his last three starts but the one in between there was a 4 inning roughing up and before these last two 8+ innings affairs he hadn’t done it since July 25th.

The walk rate has improved a good bit in the last year and a half, but there is still room for improvement there.

If I had to choose one of Heyward or Kershaw, I’d have to go with Heyward because of the inherent risk of injury with a pitcher. That doesn’t diminish what Kershaw is doing though, because he’s been excellent this year.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 25, 2025 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

I can respect that

It just seemed like you were tossing Kershaw aside like nothing and by doing so saying that Heyward is already one of the few best outfielders in the game, which is not so (yet). Your explanation was helpful. Also, I wasn’t saying that he went 8 innings a start like Cliff Lee does/can, just that the big knock on him last year was he couldn’t go deep into games, and he’s done it a good amount of times this year now.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 26, 2025 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

FWIW

The post above was my first in this thread. I hadn’t made any post saying Heyward was better, that was apoxonbothyourhouses.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 27, 2025 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Hitters are a lot more fun to talk about in this sort of scenario

We can actually make some sort of reasonable predictions for how their career will go. With pitchers its like throwing darts at a moving target. I’d love to be able to reasonably discuss Kershaw’s future, but its hard to say anything intelligent about something so completely unknown. He’s certainly got almost as much upside as any pitcher in baseball, but there’s still a good chance he never wins more than 100-150 games in his career because of the nature of pitching.

by nixa37 on Sep 23, 2025 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Just compare the Latos and Posey threads for more evidence

People just don’t have much to say in the pitching threads.

by nixa37 on Sep 23, 2025 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I’m just bummed because I could (and have) talk about Kershaw for days on end. Albert Pujols is my favorite player, but I don’t think I’ve ever been more excited for a player in my life.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 24, 2025 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Feller

This reminds me of Bob Feller on Stephen Strasburg: “Get back to me when he’s got 100 wins.”

It seems to be the case that the more baseball one watches, the more a fan comes to admire the “workhorse” pitcher than the stud arm with the high k/9.

FWIW, I agree completely with your post.

by GuyinNY on Sep 24, 2025 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I find it kinda interesting that

the stats have his hit rates increasing to 2013, but in 2014, he gives up the least hits(theoretically) and has his ERA go up over 4…?

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2025 9:59 PM EDT reply actions

I think it is implied

but I guess I should say it in a comment…

Therefore, I feel his numbers will be slightly better over his career, because I think it is a SKILL Kershaw has to restrict hits, not luck

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2025 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions

HOF?

Is this Kershaw an HOF’r? He notches the 2013 and 2015 CY’s and has about 7 All Star caliber seasons. My guess is that he might make it after a few turns on the ballot.

by GuyinNY on Sep 24, 2025 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

2,841 Ks

would give him the 18th highest strikeout total in history, and 3rd highest strikeout total for any LHP, behind Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton, and just ahead of Micky Lolich.

That’s a HOF career.

(The K/9 isn’t quite as high historically, as the 7.91 in this crystal ball would rank him roughly 35th all time, but there are a ton of relievers and Oliver Perez (!) on the list ahead of him, so I’m not sure I should’ve even looked at the K/9 leaderboard.)

by fps31520 on Sep 24, 2025 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

isn't it a little unrealistic . . .

. . . that 69% of poll respondents expect a HOF-caliber career from a 22-year old starting pitcher? The guy is very, very good, but shouldn’t the CB above be regarded as something close to the very best case for just about any starting pitcher?

On the other hand, optimism does get one out of bed in the morning.

by tycobb420 on Sep 27, 2025 5:14 PM EDT reply actions