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Either/Or: Starlin Castro or Jason Heyward

More photos » Charlie Riedel - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

This is a bit of an apples/oranges thing since they don't play the same position, but I think it is an interesting question. If you could have Starlin Castro or Jason Heyward for the next ten years, who would you pick? Does Heyward's bat outweight Castro's defensive value? And Castro is no slouch with the bat himself.

NOTE: The usage of the Heyward picture is not intended to influence the vote.

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Comments

Display:

Heyward

And I’m a huge Castro fan.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Sep 12, 2025 3:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Ditto

Exactly my feeling. As good as I feel Castro can be, Heyward looks like a true impact talent with the bat whose defense is also pretty darned good. I’m interested in the thoughts of those who would choose Castro.

by blackoutyears on Sep 12, 2025 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro

Before the season, Heyward would have gotten my vote but now, with the ++ defense and the bat Castro is showing, the defensive attributes at a (the?) premium position on the field is the key to bumping Starlin above Heyward. And I do believe Heyward will be a monster but, again, if Castro hits this well and continues to field at this rate, he’s a legit Gold Glove SS and a serious presence in the line-up. That doesn’t come along all the much.

by thehitonecafe on Sep 12, 2025 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Plus-plus defense?

What’s the basis for that designation? And power is still a question for Castro. Heyward should provide significantly more offense over a decade. I don’t think this is a particularly convincing argument.

by blackoutyears on Sep 12, 2025 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention Castro should slow down, most likely moving off SS down the road…or at least losing that “plus plus” defense people say he is bringing to the table now. Of course that isn’t a definite but nearly every report I’ve read seems to think he will slow down enough to question his range at SS.

by jfish26101 on Sep 12, 2025 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro

is nothing close to a plus plus defender

by nyy601 on Sep 12, 2025 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

agreed

I’m a huge Cubs fan … but plus-plus is a bit overboard. His best case defensive scenario was always above average to good, maybe a plus year here and there.

by toonsterwu on Sep 13, 2025 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yet you still voted for Castro?

Just saying…if you don’t buy elite defense, its a pretty tough case to make

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

its called

being a homer

by matthewmafa on Sep 13, 2025 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

This makes me laugh

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 13, 2025 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

i get it

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Sep 13, 2025 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Their thoughts are

“I’m a Cubs homer”

by OremLK on Sep 12, 2025 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Heyward

but I came close to voting for Starlin just cause he plays SS with premium defense.

by hrv1978 on Sep 12, 2025 3:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Nixa where you at??

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Sep 12, 2025 4:12 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm sorry

sometimes it’s just too easy

stop letting it offend you so much and I will lose interest quickly

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Sep 12, 2025 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or you could act like an adult and quit being a dick for no reason

I don’t know if you realize, but this makes you look bad, not me.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward

Starlin’s a great player and everything, but I just can’t pass up on Heyward’s bat. What he’s doing right now is insane. He’s 20 years old and he’s in the top 10 in the majors in OBP and BB%, while also maintaining a spot in the top 20 in wOBA. He’s got great power potential. He’s one of the most complete hitters in recent memory. I know I’ve been mocked for it in the past, but he’s got Pujols-like upside with the bat. Castro is great and should be one of the top SS in the league for the next decade, I just think Heyward will be one of the best players in the league.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Mocked for what?

Why would comping Heyward’s ceiling to Pujols’ be worthy of mockery? It’s not like Heyward hasn’t been acclaimed as a potential generational talent by most evaluators. If any young player clearly has that ceiling it’s him.

by blackoutyears on Sep 12, 2025 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

You've got me

People just don’t like it when you say someone could be that good. I even got a ton of hate for saying that Heyward might be ahead of Upton in terms of skills in this thread. Hell, they even thought I was crazy for saying Heyward was clearly a better offensive prospect that Gordon. Honestly, I think a lot of people hear sold Heyward short.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

That old thread was a fun read. A lot of guys being bearish on Heyward and being dicks about it at the same time.

The question I would ask now is who would you rather have now: Heyward or Upton? I’ll take Heyward.

by yondaime4 on Sep 12, 2025 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward without question

Heyward’s 20 year old season is better than anything Upton has done this far in his career. The strikeouts are starting to look like a legitimate worry for Upton. Heyward strikes out significantly less, walks significantly more and, once you adjust for home park, I think Heyward has every bit as much power. Don’t get me wrong, Upton is great, just not Jason Heyward level great.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

But Upton's tools...

drool

I mean this in a purely hypothetical way, but Justin Upton’s absolute ceiling, if reached, is probably a bit higher than Jason Heyward’s. Obviously, Heyward is already much closer to his ceiling, and considerably younger. But… if I had to bet on one player posting a 10+ WAR/Mickey Mantle in 1956/tell your grandchildren about it season, it’d still have to be Upton at this point. He’s still very young, and very accomplished for his age.

by GuyinNY on Sep 13, 2025 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

But strike zone judgement is incredibly important to WAR

Besides I really don’t get this idea that Upton has some huge advantage in tools. Heyward is better in terms of average, they’re similar in terms of power, and Upton has the slight advantage in speed, defense, and arm. Honestly, I think Heyward’s advantage in strike zone judgement easily trumps Upton’s slight advantages in the latter 3. It’s far and away the most important skill.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scouting

This is something that relates purely to scouting: Justin Upton is a demonstrably better athlete than Jason Heyward. He is stronger, faster (both in terms of pick up and top speed), throws harder and probably for greater distance and with more accuracy, and is generally the sort of athlete you dream on.

However, all of that does NOT mean that Upton is a better player than Heyward, nor anywhere NEAR as refined. It simply means that if both Heyward and Upton were to refine their games as far as they possibly could, and become the best players they could absolutely, possibly be (which is true of only a handful of players in the game, I think, as most eschew one aspect of the game for another)… then Justin Upton would almost certainly be a better player than Jason Heyward. But, as it stands, Heyward is more refined, quite athletic in his own right, considerably younger, and producing similar/better results (lest we disregard Upton’s 2009.)

Think of it this way: Willie Mays probably wasn’t a better player than Hank Aaron, but he sure was a more memorable one.

by GuyinNY on Sep 14, 2025 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

How is he a demonstrably better athlete?

Please explain how you can actually demonstrate that. I don’t doubt that Upton has better pickup, but I do seriously doubt there is a difference in their top speed. Heyward is a 6’5" long strider with some of the best top speed I’ve ever seen. Go watch the video of him scoring from first on a 1B. And we’re really just going to assume that Upton is stronger? I’m not so sure about that. Heyward is just a monstrous human being. He’s 6’5" and 240-250 lbs of pure muscle. He doesn’t look that big because he has such a big frame, but don’t underestimate him.

Clearly we’re just going to disagree on their upside. I think Heyward clearly has more because of his insanely good strike zone judgement. He’s a guy that could easily post a string of .450 OBPs, which is something I can’t see Upton ever doing. He can’t walk nearly that much without posting an insane strikeout rate. His approach at the plate and pitch recognition just isn’t good enough. Oh, just to make sure you realize, I’m not disregarding Upton’s 2009, it just isn’t as good as Heyward’s 2010 once you adjust for their environment. Heyward has a 143 wRC+ right now, while Upton posted a 134 wRC+ last year. That’s a pretty huge difference. Put it this way, this may be the best 20 year old rookie season any of us have ever seen. The only player MLB history to post a higher OBP than Heyward’s as a rookie at age 20 or younger was Ted Williams.

by nixa37 on Sep 14, 2025 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree to Disagree

Clearly, we do disagree about their upside. I will try and refer you to scouting reports. The majority of scouts would tell you that Upton’s pop-ups stay up there WAAAAAAY longer than most big leaguers, and that’s been true since high school. (This was confirmed to me by a scout at a game in Milwaukee back in August. Of course, this is the internet, and everything is specious, but I’ve been around this board a while and I don’t think I’m known for anything particularly outlandish. Or much of anything at all.)

2) Upton could carry CF (his position in the minors, and one he would probably play were it not for Chris Young.) That goes a very long way towards making up for Heyward’s better plate discipline. BTW, I would like to point out that players DO refine their plate discipline (witness Sosa, Sammy.)
    
I think you need to lay off the Heyward sauce just a bit, though (or maybe I’m just getting old) but I pretty clearly remember this guy’s age 20: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml

Oh, and for the your stat/my stat game: Upton posted a WAR of 5.2 last season, and Heyward is at 4.4 this year. So, in terms of absolute ceiling reached thus far, Upton is actually better by that metric. :)

by GuyinNY on Sep 14, 2025 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

A-Rod wasn't a rookie at age 20, that's why he didn't win the ROY

Maybe its a unfair distinction because A-Rod hadn’t played a full season yet, but he had still be exposed to MLB pitching before that season, unlike Heyward.

Sure, Maybe Upton’s pop-ups stay in the air longer than most big leaguers. I wouldn’t be surprised if scouts said that. At the same time, I’m sure they’d also tell you that Heyward’s line drives are WAAAAAAAY harder than most big leaguers. I’ve never seen anyone else hit balls that barely seem to get 10 feet off the ground but still somehow one hop the wall. Plus, you know, he hit the third longest HR in the majors this season on his first ML swing, which is pretty cool.

Upton probably could handle CF and he is definitely a better fielder than Heyward, but I think its a big stretch to say it makes up for Heyward’s plate discipline. Plate discipline is way more important, and Heyward has a huge advantage there. Heyward’s no slouch with the glove either. As for the Sammy Sosa example you’re trying to use, notice that the K rate went up when the BB rate went up. This isn’t something Upton can necessarily do, because if his K rate goes up much more he’s in trouble. He’s already got the 6th worst K rate in the league, do you really want him to get worse in that category?

I have no problem admitting that Upton posted the better WAR according to B-R last year, but keep in mind that Heyward will be significantly closer by the end of the season, the majority of Upton’s value is coming from defense ratings (which are far less reliable), and Heyward’s thumb injury pretty clearly held down his numbers this year.

by nixa37 on Sep 15, 2025 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

go look

at Mickey Mantle’s plate discipline figures and get back to us.

by richieabernathy on Sep 13, 2025 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't even understand what that was directed towards.

Mantle was very nearly about as TTO as they came in his day. It’s not a big statement to say that Upton, at his absolute ceiling, might be all that different.

by GuyinNY on Sep 14, 2025 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mantle always walked more than Upton has and never stuck out as much

You talk about Upton being more likely to put up 10 WAR seasons like Mantle, but Mantle was posting those seasons in large part because he was walking 17% to 23% of the time while striking out less than 20% of the time. Based on what we’ve seen so far, Heyward is far more likely to turn into that sort of hitter than Upton is.

by nixa37 on Sep 14, 2025 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

...

Account for era, plz. Ruth was a K machine, and he never topped 100 in a season.

One more time: there’s more to the game than just the stick and raw OPS. Upton’s faster and plays better defense. He has a higher ceiling because he’s a better athlete. It could allow him to excel in more facets of the game. (ex. Upton has averaged +22 runs/yr across 2009-2010 and could probably man CF quite easily.)

Right now, Heyward is probably the better player. In some magical universe where both hit their peak, Upton is probably the better player.

by GuyinNY on Sep 14, 2025 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

BTW, I love MrKupe, but in retrospect he may have missed the mark on this one by a bit

Hopefully, even he would concede at this point that Heyward’s plate discipline is on a completely different level than Upton’s and that Alex Gordon might not have been the best comp for Heyward.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love you too , man

Probably fair to say. But then again, projecting 20 years in AA straight to the majors is never easy, and I’ve certainly been wrong in the past. And if I wasn’t, I’d probably be rich by now.

by mrkupe on Sep 13, 2025 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

old thread

I never stated that Heyward didn’t have potential, or wasn’t going to be a very good/great player. Upton had just completed a season in which he had an OPS of .900 as a 21 year old. Heyward needed to prove/do something outside of AA before he could be compared to Upton.

Looking at it from here on out, I’d say this: Even though I’m a dbacks fan I’d take Heyward because of his intangibles. Heyward looks to be a community guy, a guy that gives 100% all the time. Both Uptons seem to go through the motions and then turn it on from time to time. I have my doubts that either Upton will ever live up to their vast potential

by ScottAZ on Sep 13, 2025 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sorry but this statement just isn't right
Heyward needed to prove/do something outside of AA before he could be compared to Upton.

That’s just not how prospecting works. You look at the numbers and scouting reports and then you make comparisons. If you want to be conservative, you’re welcome to err on the side of the proven player, but that doesn’t make a comparison any less valid. People told me I was dumb for suggesting Heyward may be ahead of Upton in the skills department. I never said he definitely was, I simply suggested the case could be made. In retrospect, his plate discipline was clearly on a different level than Upton’s, which it was possible to see in the numbers and scouting reports. Some people simply chose to look past the evidence because they didn’t want to consider the minor leaguer over the proven guy.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

skills

I’d still say Upton has better SKILLS than Heyward. Upton is probably the toolsiest player in the game. Incredibly strong, fast, arm strength, bat speed. I still think Upton comes out ahead of Heyward in skills today.

Its obvious that something is missing with Upton however, and I’d say that is heart/desire. I had high hopes for him after 2009, but my fear is Upton teases us with his vast potential, but never quite fullfilling it. He’ll put up numbers, but never what he could/should accomplish. I see Heyward on the other end of the intangible spectrum

by ScottAZ on Sep 13, 2025 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tools don't equal skills in scouting parlance, Scott

That’s especially egregious on a blog whose host has traditionally drawn the distinction between traditional tools and The Seven Skills. ;-)

You could make a case that Upton has better tools, but I think that’s very much open to debate.

by blackoutyears on Sep 13, 2025 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

translate tools into skills

Upton translates his tools into skills as well as anyone. He’s not Reggie Abercrombie. Upton will be as good as he wants to. He is as strong in the 7 skills as anyone. He just doesn’t seem to give a shit at times

by ScottAZ on Sep 13, 2025 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Upton were doing that

we wouldn’t be debating it, would we? I have faith that he will, but it may take longer than expected. You’ve seen him more than I have, but the times I’ve seen him this year he’s struggled and was just getting beat, lacking any coherent approach at the plate. I’m beginning to wonder if he needs some mentoring besides the coaching staff. I’m not a big proponent of signing aging vets just to raise the tone in the clubhouse, but if you can get guys who do that while providing production it’s worth it imo.

by blackoutyears on Sep 13, 2025 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree to disagree I guess

Heyward has a pretty huge advantage in strike zone judgement, which John has noted is the most important offensive skill. He also ranks higher in hitting for average while getting basically the same marks in terms of hitting for power and offensive speed (Upton’s faster, but Heyward’s the smarter baserunner). Defensively I’d give Upton the edge in range, Heyward the advantage in reliability, and basically equal marks on the arms.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Huge?

Upton has drawn 65 walks while Heyward has drawn 80. That is an advantage sure, but not huge. Upton has very good discipline for a 22 year old and its bound to get better with age. Average is hard to call, as Upton hit .290 last year and I believe has .310+ ave potential. Upton has monster power, monster speed, and maybe the best OF arm in the game. Upton’s tools, and yes, skills, are unparralled IMO. If Upton fails to reach that ceiling it will because he’s indifferent towards the game, not for lack of translating those skills.

by ScottAZ on Sep 13, 2025 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah the difference in strike zone judgement is huge

Heyward has walked in 14.2% of his PA, while Upton has walked in 11.4% of his. The difference between Heyward and Upton is bigger than the difference between Upton and the average hitter. Heyward is 8th in the league, while Upton is 32nd. Its a fairly major advantage in Heyward’s favor.

And Heyward is also almost guaranteed to hit for a higher average. Given Upton’s strikeout rates, he is a long, long way from ever being a .310 hitter. I mean its possible if he post an insanely high BABIP and a lot of HR, but I don’t see it on the horizon. Heyward strikes out significantly less and based on his batted ball profile and speed, we should expect a similar BABIP to Upton’s. That leaves me thinking that Heyward will be better when it comes to hitting for average.

I think Upton’s lack of strike zone judgement is what’s holding him back from achieving greatness, not his indifference towards the game.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW

I don’t think an 11.4% walk rate is all that bad, and it’s been one of the reasons I believe that Upton can imporve quickly. I’m certainly not from a camp arguing that Heyward is better than Upton, or more talented. They’ve both got a ton of ability and Heyward just seems be slightly more skilled at a younger age. Both of these guys are potential Top 10 offensive players in the making, so arguing that one is much better than the other doesn’t make much sense to me. I do agree that Upton’s problems are less about indifference and more about genuine struggles. He’s still expanding his strike zone when I see him.

by blackoutyears on Sep 13, 2025 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course not, 11.4% is in the top 35 in the league

Its just not nearly as good as Heyward’s.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Strike zone judgment is not just about walks.

Heyward is walking 14% of the time and striking out 25%, while Upton is walking 11% of the time and striking out 30%. That’s a pretty significant difference.

by PissedMick on Sep 13, 2025 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward

 I love Starlin but I gotta go Heyward

by Yankees10 on Sep 12, 2025 4:35 PM EDT reply actions  

The vote

Is going to be overwhelmingly Heyward, but the difference isn’t that drastic. I think Heyward is going to be more valuable, but you also will be able to find an above average OF to replace his spot easier then doing the same for Castro.

by ADLC on Sep 12, 2025 4:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Disagree

The difference is pretty dramatic. I’m surprised John even asked the question.

by guru4u on Sep 13, 2025 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Castro

but I quess the hype machine puts Heyward up there. Not saying Heyward isn’t good, put I will take Castro’s defense

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by WVPiratesfan on Sep 12, 2025 4:47 PM EDT reply actions  

I hate how the hype machine always goes crazy over 20-year-olds who hit .290/.400/.480

Get over it, guys. Those hitters are a dime a dozen.

by PissedMick on Sep 13, 2025 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

+1

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by alskor on Sep 13, 2025 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good lord, this isn't even close

I’d rather have Heyward than two Starlin Castros.

by OremLK on Sep 12, 2025 5:20 PM EDT reply actions  

To put my strong reaction(s) into perspective

I see Heyward as a superstar franchise player. The only argument for Castro over Heyward is defense, but I don’t buy that Heyward is THAT much worse in that area; he is going to be a good defensive right fielder, and while that’s still less valuable than a shortstop, the difference isn’t as much as some of you are probably thinking—Castro maybe gets a 1-1.5 win advantage in that area due to positional adjustment, and I don’t buy that his offense will come anywhere close to making up for that.

I do not see Castro as a plus defender (for the shortstop position) now or moving forward. Right now he has mental lapses, I’ve seen it happen a lot. In the future he may get better about that, but he’s going to fill out more and slow down. He’s going to stick at shortstop, and he can hit for average and a little power, and that does have a lot of value. He has a chance to be a franchise type player, but I wouldn’t even give him a 50% chance at it right now. For Heyward I think it’s almost a certainty that he is going to be a star. Heck, he might be already.

by OremLK on Sep 12, 2025 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

That’s my feeling on all counts. Castro is not the best defender in his league, which he’d pretty much have to be to close the gap, especially as people making the “defense” argument are ignoring Heyward’s own defensive ability. I love Castro to death, but this is WAR -driven valuation run amok.

by blackoutyears on Sep 12, 2025 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Heyward still destroys Castro in WAR

He’s been worth almost 2 extra wins in 14 extra games.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where exactly

are we getting that Castro is an elite defender? UZR has him as a below-average SS… maybe it’s because of all the errors (rather than not having enough range) but he’s hardly an elite fielder at this stage. Give me Heyward’s bat, he has legitimate 40-homer power.

The Coors Effect

by Tom (RFTN) on Sep 12, 2025 5:26 PM EDT reply actions  

He has made a few good plays and provided adequate defense as a rookie. I don’t want to say it’s similar to Betancourt where the traditional media went on about his defensive performance due to a few nice plays but I never thought Castro had plus defense.

by jfish26101 on Sep 12, 2025 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scouting + Age

Currently, he’s not a plus plus defender. However, considering he’s one of the youngest players in MLB (if not the youngest) and has shown excellent range and a propensity for making difficult plays, the potential certainly is there. Despite the errors in the minors, he still got rave reviews for his defense at every level he played. He might not become an elite level defender, but even if he becomes an above average to plus defender at SS, I don’t think that should be held against him. The tools are there, plus he’s supposedly got fantastic makeup and coachability. I don’t think it’s as much of a long shot as some people seem to be saying in this thread.

by Outshined_One on Sep 12, 2025 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scouts don't project him for plus-plus defense.

They never have. I’ve seen some scouts who seriously question whether he will even be good enough to remain at shortstop as he gets older and fills out more. I don’t think that myself, I think he’s a shortstop, but he’s not an above average defender at the position. He’ll be lucky to be an average defensive shortstop in the long term.

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by OremLK on Sep 12, 2025 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

UZR doesn't penalize much for errors

As far as I know, it just counts as a play not made.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 13, 2025 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Scouts always questioned his range

That plus his body type is why most feel he will move to 3B in a few years.

by guru4u on Sep 13, 2025 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_8e5eMpDyg

on the other hand, Castro:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhaQrqHjOR4

This is tough. I went with Heyward because I’m a Braves fan, but there are both going to be great.

Atlanta Hawks=the team that drafted big $$$$$$$$$ instead of big men.

by hawves on Sep 12, 2025 5:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Heyward

Not even close, imo.

by BryceHarper on Sep 12, 2025 5:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I find it funny that the few who are choosing Castro are doing so on the basis of some mirage of plus plus defense.

…when Heyward is in fact the one who’s closest to an elite defender.

I don’t think there’s a convincing case to be made for Castro, personally. He’s a great young player but Heyward is… well, Heyward.

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by alskor on Sep 12, 2025 8:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I guess to clarify for you

They are saying plus plus defense at shortstop is more valuable than an elite defender at a corner outfield spot. And Lou Piniella said that Starlin Castro is going to be a great defender. He was preaching patience and he was even " adamant that the media and the fans should give Castro some time to get comfortable playing in the big leagues, issuing caution not to read too much into his game-to-game stats."

by lions1 on Sep 12, 2025 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course on defense it Castro would be more valuable

Its just that there isn’t enough value there to make up for the ~25 run advantage Heyward would have over the course of a full season.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lou Piniella said that Starlin Castro is going to be a great defender.

Lou Pineilla says a lot of things. Want me to find the things Bobby Cox has said about Heyward…? What is this supposed to prove…?

They are saying plus plus defense at shortstop is more valuable than an elite defender at a corner outfield spot.

Sure, but how does this apply to Starlin Castro? He’s not a plus plus defender. Nor did he ever project as a real plus defender. His range was questioned consistently coming up.

He was preaching patience and he was even " adamant that the media and the fans should give Castro some time to get comfortable playing in the big leagues, issuing caution not to read too much into his game-to-game stats."

Ok, but whatever credit you’re giving Castro for this you have to give the exact same to Heyward.

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by alskor on Sep 12, 2025 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would dispute

that Castro’s range was “questioned consistently”..his range isn’t the problem, it’s consistency with concentration in his throws, glove, etc. That’s fixable. He’s up there among the most agile players I’ve ever seen.

That said, I think Heyward is also a plus defender, maybe a 1.5 win difference between the two of them w/ positional adjustment, and his bat will more than make up for it. Heyward’s ceiling with the bat is obviously higher.

One reason I can think of to vote for Castro: I think he probably ages better than Heyward, who got nicked up in a lot of different ways this season (groin, thumb, etc) and had hamstring problems last season, while playing a position less stressful on the body. Granted a lot of this is luck of the draw, but (knock on wood) Castro appears to be one of those resilient types who takes care of himself stretching/lifting-wise.

All that said, I’d probably still vote Heyward

by PrincetonCubs on Sep 12, 2025 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can try to pick apart my paragraph as much as you want

but my point continues to ring true. As for what you had to say…

“Lou Pineilla says a lot of things. Want me to find the things Bobby Cox has said about Heyward…? What is this supposed to prove…?”

First of all, it proves that Lou Pineilla, a coach we can all say has quite a big of knowledge about the game (and whose fist hand opinion of Castro’s defense I take into consideration much more than your opinion of his defense), believes that Castro will be a great defender. Second of all, if you want you can find things Bobby Cox said about Heyward but it won’t have any relevance to how good a shortstop Castro will be.

“Sure, but how does this apply to Starlin Castro? He’s not a plus plus defender. Nor did he ever project as a real plus defender. His range was questioned consistently coming up.”

This statement is just flat out false and you had no basis. Baseball America had this to say: “Castro excels defensively as well, with range to both sides, body control and arm strength to make any play. Managers rated him the best defensive shortstop in the Florida State League. The Cubs also like his instincts, charisma, and work ethic. Castro just needs to time to fill out and polish his game. He made 39 errors last season, which isn’t a high number for a young shortstop, but shows that he needs to play more under control.” Also, Goldstein had this to say: “His defensive fundamentals are outstanding for both his level and his age, with smooth actions, soft hands, a quick transfer, and a plus arm.” And for good measure, here’s what Andrew Cashner had to say: “He’s got phenomenal defense, and he’s been hitting really well here in Arizona. He’s made some really good plays behind me this year, and it’s just fun to watch Castro play defense. On a lot of hard plays, you don’t realize how hard they are because of how easy he makes them look.” I think he will be a plus plus defender so this does apply to Castro. His range has not really been questioned, neither has his arm strength. It is his lack of focus play-to-play which has been his main problem. This is something to not take for granted but at the same time, he’s only 20 years old. This is the equivalent of a college sophomore. There is plenty more development and hopefully he will reach his defensive potential.

“Ok, but whatever credit you’re giving Castro for this you have to give the exact same to Heyward.”

And last but not least, I do not need to give as much credit to Castro as I do to Heyward if I believe Castro deserves it more. There is something to be said for latin american prospects needing more time to get adjusted to life in the U.S. and the big leagues. There are the barriers of language, culture, etc. that I believe get taken for granted. Yes Heyward obviously needs an adjustment period, but in the end, it is not as significant to his development than it is for Castro. Not only does Heyward play in his home country, he plays in his home state. There is an obvious comfort level that makes focusing solely on baseball much easier. And as any athlete (or worker) knows, being able to focus on your craft is essential for doing your job to the best of your abilities

by lions1 on Sep 13, 2025 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

First of all, it proves that Lou Pineilla, a coach we can all say has quite a big of knowledge about the game

Whatever.

This statement is just flat out false and you had no basis.

No basis, eh?

Several scouts noted below-average running times to first base, and his range is affected by it, possibly leading to a move to second base down the road.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9978

Long term, the question is how long he can stick at SS

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=768

John (the implication being it was a question):

and looks to be able to stick at short.
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/29/675375/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospe

"If people are expecting some lively, athletic middle infielder, he’s not that," explained the scout. "He’s an average runner, and his body is thickening up, so for me it ultimately comes down to his bat."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10787

Frankie Pillierre: Right now, I think he can be a shortstop. Things change as guys get older, their physiques change but right now I think he can stick.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/25/1269201/another-top-100-prospects-list#

Arm can stay at short, though needs to show enough range to stay.

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/12/06/starlin-castro-report

can he stick at SS?

http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/02/23/2010-top-100-prospect-list

I’m still not sure he’ll stick at SS

http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/05/10/top-25-prospect-list

Starlin Castro is already a below-average runner, according to my data. And I know there are knowledgeable people who disagree with me, but I see his thighs growing over the next few years and him slowing down. Even a good arm, great instincts and the softest of soft hands wouldn’t be enough to allow a well-below-average runner to play an up-the-middle position.

http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/12/18/prospect-speed-meet-prospect-d

Not to mention this has been discussed on here about 8,000 times.

He also saw time in the minors at 2B, 3B, 1B and all three OF spots… you don’t see guys who are locks to stay at SS doing that a lot.

I’m actually buying him as an average to above average defensive SS (in time - right now he’s kind of a mess over there, inefficient actions and lots of errors)… but the questions were most certainly there. You can’t really have never seen this stuff before…? It came up like every day here last winter.

And last but not least, I do not need to give as much credit to Castro as I do to Heyward if I believe Castro deserves it more. There is something to be said for latin american prospects needing more time to get adjusted to life in the U.S. and the big leagues…

Not only does Heyward play in his home country, he plays in his home state. There is an obvious comfort level that makes focusing solely on baseball much easier…

Ok, then I’ll conversely act like a big homer for Heyward and give him extra credit for having to play in his home state in front of his friends and family. So much pressure! I give him a smiley face sticker - and Castro a stormcloud sticker for getting to play in more comfortable conditions than his home country. Oh, and Heyward gets a gold star for playing in the heat of a pennant race while Castro got to play on a middling Cubs team.

Of course, this is all B.S. since it obviously doesn’t come close to making up the difference between the two.

(sorry for the tone… I’m still a little irked by the accusation I was making up the range stuff.)

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by alskor on Sep 13, 2025 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Haha... well it's good banter

I was not trying to accuse you of lying about there being questions on his range. It just seems to me that each person that was quoted really had no idea about his ability at short. There overall theme seems to be, let’s wait and see. From the scouting trips I’ve made, he’s been quite good at short. He’s seemed very mobile (quite rangy) and he has a cannon for an arm. As I said before, it’s the mental aspect or the repeatability of the throws that he’s been having lots of trouble with. I would be very surprised to see him rated as a below average defensive shortstop (in the range department). Looking at his RngR factor, he has actually been positive, although I tend to take other people’s defensive ratings with a grain of salt and usually use an error factor. If he can even be average with his accuracy, he will be a well above average defensive shortstop. If he can be above average, which he has the tools to do, we could be seeing someone pretty special in the making.

And now to the ‘playing in the home state’ argument. Obviously your argument was out of spite and was poking fun at a point I was trying to make. You’re obviously free to your own opinions but that sort of puerile rant is excessive.

by lions1 on Sep 13, 2025 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

small nitpick
He also saw time in the minors at 2B, 3B, 1B and all three OF spots… you don’t see guys who are locks to stay at SS doing that a lot.

In Daytona and Tennessee, the bulk of his time was at short (I’d say all, but off the top, can’t recall 100% if there was a late game switch or something else). In AZL he played some other spots, but that shouldn’t be viewed as a negative. First off, it was AZL. 2nd, they also had the more physically talented Junior Lake at AZL at the same time and wanted to work both of those guys (and I think one more, although name is slipping me) at short as well.

by toonsterwu on Sep 13, 2025 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

I voted Castro.

There are many, many more 5 WAR corner OF’s than there are 5 WAR SS. Castro is not a 5 WAR player this year, but he’s also the youngest player in MLB (unless a younger one has been called up). Castro is already hitting alot of 2B; I think the doubt in his power is misguided. He’s definitely a special bat.

by philadelphiacub on Sep 12, 2025 9:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Seasons over 5 WAR since 2006 by primary position

SS - 14
RF - 6

This is not a good argument

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions   3 recs

I said corner OF's.

And there are currently 5 of them this year with 5 WAR already. Perhaps I didn’t articulate it clearly- an elite bat at SS is more rare than an elite bat at corner OF.

by philadelphiacub on Sep 12, 2025 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well if you're comparing 2 positions to 1, there should be twice as many 5 WAR players

In this case however, there have been 14 COF seasons of over 5 WAR the since 2006, the exact same number as there have been from the SS position. The fact that there are more 5 WAR seasons from COF this season is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Its pretty much completely random. 5 WAR is 5 WAR, whatever position its coming from. The stat is already adjusting for the position someone plays.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro is not an elite bat.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 12, 2025 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Your argument is quite misleading I think...

off the top of my head I would say Hanley probably has 5, Derek Jeter has 2-3, Rollins probably has 3. That’s only 3 players who have at least 10 or 11 out of the possible 14. How many DIFFERENT players have been 5 WAR players (obviously an arbitrary cutoff)? Also, for what it’s worth, Rollins is the only 1 of the 3 who could be argued to be above average defensively.

by lions1 on Sep 13, 2025 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

He was the one who made that argument not me

I was simply pointing out that there are a lot more 5 WAR seasons from SS than RF over the past 4 seasons to show him the flaw of his reasoning.

Also, your guesses on particular guys are a bit off. Still more different SS to do it than RF

Hanley - 3
Reyes -3
Jeter - 2
Tulo - 2
Rollins - 2
Guillen
Tejada

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

The implication here is that COFs are inherently more valuable than SS or something

This isn’t true. It’s why we have positional adjustments.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 13, 2025 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why do people think Castro has anything other than average at best defense?

scouting reports all say that is where he is, and UZR has him at right about average (a bit below). Whats causing the plus-plus defense comments? Heyward has put up a better season this year (by a fair margin), shows a more diversified skillset (can do something other than hit for average), and was the concensus better prospect coming in. Where is an argument for Starlin in all this?

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 12, 2025 9:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Its kind of bizarre.

I don’t think MOST people think this, though… just a vocal minority in this thread.

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by alskor on Sep 12, 2025 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you may be right, and the poll results represent that to a degree, but still.

Something else to add, Heyward, while being about average in the corner outfield according to UZR, is an outstanding 13 this year according to DRS, the Fielding Bible’s Metric. I actually prefer UZR a bit (although that might be because I’ve used it more), but its still something else to consider. Defensive scouting reports on Heyward as a prospect were positive. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t above average (5 or so) for the immediate future.

Also, while Starlin has the higher BA, they both have similar BABIPs (they both should regress a bit, between .340 and .350 for both), with almost identical batted ball rates. They have similar straight line speed, so given Heywards power you should say they should have approx the same BABIP, so, while Heyward batting .289 probably wont continue with his K rate, Starlin’s .313 probably wont either given what we know. They should regress in a similar maneer to one another in that department. Heyward at .270-.275 and Starlin at .300?

There really isn’t much of an argument here in my mind.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 12, 2025 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

With this small a sample...

neither can truly be trusted since the quality and quantity of his chances are affected by many things outside of his control…

BUT, we can give slightly more weight to DRS here, IMO, since w/ that stringers/video scouts are watching and grading the individual plays. So I give more credence to Heyward’s rating there.

As you say, many questioned Castro’s defense as a prospects while Heyward was regarded as a fantastic defender.

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by alskor on Sep 12, 2025 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, when 1 year of defensive data from two different sources and scouting reports match up on a prospect

I tend to think that there is probably enough there to say that Castro probably isn’t anything more than dead average at SS, and this is in his 20 year old season.

With Heyward, given scouting reports and strong DRS numbers I think it is fair to say that he is better than a +1 to +3 defender in an outfield corner, but I don’t know if, prorated, he is +15 to +20 there as DRS seems to suggest. I just don’t trust the subjective analysis that goes into DRS in general, although in a small sample size, where UZR can fluctuate wildly, I think its fair to say it is a bit more accurate.

Point is, little here to say Castro is the better player

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 12, 2025 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup.

I’d have to agree. Its really hard to make a case for Castro here… I don’t think anyone has really made the best argument for him yet.

Playing Devil’s advocate, my case for Castro would focus on:

- The positional adjustment of SS vs. RF (this has been touched on plenty above, though not always accurately)
- Projecting real plus HR power from Castro (mentioned above)
- I suppose you could try to make a big deal out of Heyward’s K rate this year (25.1%)
- The fact Heyward was somewhat injury prone in the minors and did get hurt this year while Castro had been durable.

The last is the real crux of any possible argument for Castro IMHO… but honestly, I just don’t buy any of this. I think the positional adjustment argument is made up by Heyward being a fantastic defensive RF and Castro’s defense being just okay w/ the possibility of him slowing down even more. Castro really doesn’t have great footspeed at all. I’m comfortable projecting more HR power from Castro, but not the kind of power overall that would make this a contest. Heyward has a fantastic approach at the plate and controlled his Ks well in the minors… and Heyward’s problems were a number of minor injuries… never anything major.

Really, you can’t go wrong with either guy here… and we shouldn’t lose sight of that… but I just don’t think you can make a convincing argument for Castro. He’s an averageish defensive SS without the speed or range to project to become much more than that. He’s got a fantastic knack for contact and a great swing but doesn’t walk that much (5.4% this year). He’s a very good young player… but he’s not Jason Heyward. Heyward already looks like a legitimately great player… he’s impact with every part of his game… true 5 tool guy and all the tools are fantastic… and already great skills. I’m not sure many are aware, but Castro is only a few months younger than Heyward, btw.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 12, 2025 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very well put

If Heyward’s main injury this year had been leg or back related, I would actually give the injury argument some credence. I’d probably be worried that he might become the next JD Drew. The fact that it was a thumb injury from sliding will keep me from worrying for the time being.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is it wrong to think 'the next JD Drew' is more valuable than Starlin Castro?

because, unless Castro can maintain his defense and develop some offensive skills, then I think I’d take J.D. Drew

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 13, 2025 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

There might be an actual argument for Castro at that point

Doesn’t mean it’d be right, but it’d be much better than the current one.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

ehhhh, I guess I see it, but J.D. Drew is at worst a plus defender in a corner, and hits really well when he is healthy

more WAR than Jim Rice for what its worth. This is also assuming Heyward could be nothing more than J.D. Drew, which is probably false considering he is J.D. Drew right now.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 13, 2025 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro's athleticism and his defense

I think we discussed this last year, but from a defensive perspective, I think what Castro does have, which gives him good range, is good lateral movement. No, he doesn’t have great C-1st footspeed, but I believe he still has above average speed (watch him go first to 3rd and it’s clear he has some speed). I don’t know if it’s a technique issue in his running from C-1st or something else.

Anyhow, back to defense. I’m not making a case for Castro over Heyward here. Simply discussing his defense. I still believe that Castro has good lateral movement, which is the reason why he has good range. There’s a chance that slows a bit with time, particularly if his lower half thickens up anymore.

by toonsterwu on Sep 13, 2025 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps

His 1st to 3rd could be the outlier on his speed and not his C-1b. Cristian Guzman is possibly the best example of this. The man could rack up triples to no end because he had the best baserunning technique from 1st to 3rd that I’ve seen in my lifetime from anyone not named Rickey. He was by no means, however, fast. He just had exceptional baserunning technique between the corner infield bases. This is a nice skill for racking up triples, but outside of that, it doesn’t translate well. Guzman had taken a huge step back in defense before it ever showed up in his triple count.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Sep 13, 2025 6:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

"Really, you can’t go wrong with either guy here"

Bingo, and same goes for the Heyward vs. Upton discussion. I enjoy the analysis that stems from these propositions, but I think everyone forgets that they set up a false dichotomy. There’s no need to choose between these two players, so there’s an element of farce to this. The last ESPN pitcher ranking’s comments section was ovefflowing with the fury of Latos fans that Max Scherzer had been ranked higher, as if there was any relation between the two players outside that list, and as if the ranking was somehow going to adversely decision-making: Hey, it’s week one of my fantasy playoffs, Scherzer and Latos are on the waiver wire, and I can only pick one!!! Help!!!! lol

by blackoutyears on Sep 13, 2025 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sickels loaded this post with the “Does Heyward’s bat outweight Castro’s defensive value?”
line.

This makes me think of “If you went back 20 years, who’d you rather have for the next 10 years, Ken Griffey Jr. or Omar Vizquel?”

"Check out this bitchin' homemade tesla coil!"

by bwellnjonesco on Sep 13, 2025 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward.

I absolutely love Castro, but Heyward feels like one of those guys who’s going to have a truly special career. Obviously it’s premature to put too much hype into the guy, but I think we’re looking at a guy who could potentially spend an extended period of time as the game’s best player.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 12, 2025 10:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Castro.

I’m a sucker for up the middle players.

Heyward is going to be a top of the line player, but I like Justin Upton way more.

by SenorGato on Sep 12, 2025 10:33 PM EDT reply actions  

LOL

I don’t see Heyward stealing 40+ bases anytime. Talk about a horrible comp.

by guru4u on Sep 13, 2025 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Griffey Jr.

I don’t think it’s a great comp. But: Griffey Jr. never stole more than 24 bases in a season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml

by sourdoughboy on Sep 13, 2025 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Upton strikes out more, walks less, and has similar power adjusting for home park

Heyward is better at 20 than Upton was at 20, 21, or 22. I can maybe understand having a slight preference for Upton, but not liking him way more.

As for liking up the middle players more, do you like Marco Scutaro more than Ryan Braun? Because that’s the sort of offensive difference we’re talking about with regards to Castro and Heyward.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Upton can be argued to be the better defender, though.

but I’m just playing devil’s advocate, they are pretty similar, and while I may prefer Upton slightly more just because I think I’d trust him to be average in CF, you’re right in saying that it really shouldn’t be a huge difference. I guess you COULD say Upton has more raw power/speed, but his approach is definitely behind Heyward’s.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 12, 2025 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I just can't imagine liking anyone "way more" than Heyward

In addition Upton’s strikeouts and power outage this year really scare me. I also think his speed is a bit overrated. His defense on the other hand is insanely good. I mean I love Heyward’s defense, but I’ll concede Upton is on another level entirely.

by nixa37 on Sep 12, 2025 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe Anthony Rendon

That’s all I’ve got at the moment.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 13, 2025 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like Rendon a lot, but I can't imagine liking him a lot more than Heyward

He’s still in college using an aluminum bat, while Heyward’s posting a .289/.399/.481 in the majors. Rendon’s only 10 months younger too. I can’t rank a guy like Rendon over a guy raking in the bigs.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Now if Rendon blows through the minors in 2012 with stellar defensive reports

While Heyward stays around where he is now, I might be able to see it

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I wasn't thinking right now I guess

More like if he comes into the minors and performs really well, I could see liking him more at that point than I did when Heyward was in the minors. As a possibility.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 13, 2025 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

To clarify

“Liking him more at that point than I did Heyward when he was in the minors.”

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 13, 2025 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I could definitely see that

Rendon has the chance to be a very special prospect. Only problem if he blows through the minors in 2012 is the inevitable Alex Gordon comparisons about how he’ll definitely bust that we’ll have to deal with.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Castro's offense

I may have viewer’s bias, having watched him for a long time now, but I don’t think the difference in offense is going to be as bad as the Scutaro-Braun gap you are suggesting. I think Castro will, at his peak, be around a 20 HR guy. The power’s there.

by toonsterwu on Sep 13, 2025 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe not that bad, but close

Based on their numbers from this year, we’d expect Heyward to be about 30 runs better offensively over the course of a full season. That’s a huge difference, and Heyward hasn’t even been healthy much of the year. Sure, Castro could be a 20 HR guy, but Heyward could just as easily be a 40 HR guy, and he’s going to do it with over twice as many walks.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Scutaro seems excessively pessimistic to me to, nixa

And of course, I’m waiting for the inevitable skirmish over Braun vs. Heyward thanks to you! lol

by blackoutyears on Sep 13, 2025 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

It doesn't have anything to do with how good Heyward and Castro are

My point was simply that the gap in offensive value between Scutaro and Braun is similar to the gap between Castro and Heyward.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Couple things...

Despite posting an .899 OPS at 21 I don’t think Upton’s even scratched the surface of what he’ll be doing in the future. This is a prospect site so I expected more…Upton’s upside as a prospect was “best player in the game,” and I don’t feel like pulling that back just because he had a mediocre age 22 season for a terrible team.

Also, Starlin Castro is probably going to be a little better than Scutaro…a little bit.

by SenorGato on Sep 13, 2025 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Heyward's upside isn't the best player in the game?

That’s a pretty ridiculous argument. Heyward is having a historic season for a 20 year old. Anyone saying they like someone else a lot more than him is insane. If the season ended today, the only higher players 20 or younger in the game’s history with a higher OBP would be Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Jimmie Foxx, and Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod is the only other 20 year old in the past 5 decades that’s even within 20 points.

Of course, Castro is going to be better than Scutaro. That wasn’t the point I was trying to make. Castro is already a better hitter than Scutaro, just as Heyward is already a better hitter than Braun. That was just an example of the relative difference between the two offensively.

by nixa37 on Sep 13, 2025 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

No Way

Upton doesn’t have the plate discipline that Heyward has.

by bezeerk on Sep 14, 2025 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I voted Johansson, but Whoppi Goldberg has plus-plus Academy Award hosting potential. Sure, she committed about 39 errors, but she had incredible range.

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew

by alexwithclass on Sep 13, 2025 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

And Scarlett

Would never have been able to pull off the Ghost/Color of Purple/Sister Act triple play. She’s more a home run or nothing type of actress.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Sep 13, 2025 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, Lost in Translation was a feast. But Scoop was a famine.

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew

by alexwithclass on Sep 13, 2025 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward

and it’s an easy choice he has the better bat and when Castro was playing the Mets he just looked lost and sloppy on defense I wasn’t impressed. The bat is nice but it can’t compare to Heywards.

by Pelferized on Sep 12, 2025 11:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Poll suggests it

But Dewey actually did make a fairly decent point, though I don’t think he intended to.

If I’m starting a franchise today, I take Heyward first because I believe he will be a true superstar on and off the field, the type of guy I can spend the money to keep on the team and never have the press on my case because he’s become a diva with the money.

That said, if we’re doing the same “fantasy” draft, I truly believe I’d have Castro in my first couple of rounds, which says a lot about his value considering this poll would likely have been 99/1 as recent as April. I think the power is there enough that down the road if he moves to 2B or 3B his floor is a Martin Prado type in production (good average, 20ish homer power). He could still develop a lot more power as well. Not saying it’s a fair comp, but some recent guys who burst on the scene in still developing bodies at the SS position and their SLG in their first “full” season vs. their peak SLG (in a 400+ PA season) - so far: Raffy Furcal (.382/.469), Edgar Renteria (.399/.480), Hanley Ramirez (.480/.562), Jose Reyes (.386/.487), Miguel Tejada (.384/.534), Jimmy Rollins (.419/.531), Michael Young (.402/.518), Troy Tulowitzki (.479/.561), Derek Jeter (.430/.552). Now, I’m not saying he’s a direct comp to all, or even any, of these guys, just something to think about. A couple of these guys ended up moving off the position and still fared quite well, as well.

They are very different players, and I can understand those who value Castro. It’s not much different than being in the fantasy draft with the guy who ended up this season with 4 of his first 5 picks going to land Halladay, Lincecum, Sabathia, and Verlander for his team. It’s simply a different strategy.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Sep 13, 2025 6:37 AM EDT reply actions  

I've seen a lot of those names

mentioned in the same breath as Castro and it seems merited. Castro’s contact ability is truly special, and I think he’s being damned by this particular comparison when in a vacuum he’s easily one of the top handful of young prospects in the game. If there’s a potential for surprise where he’s concerned it’s the power. Michael Young makes sense to me, with the added value of providing several more years of production from ages 20-24 as Young didn’t break in until his mid-20s.

by blackoutyears on Sep 13, 2025 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

One difference

With most on that list is the speed. I simply don’t see Castro as a 30 steal guy, which doesn’t mean he’s not a good baserunner, but basestealing is a definite skill that there’s a difference with guys like Rollins, Jeter, Ramirez, Reyes, Furcal, and Renteria and Castro in that regard. I could see him developing .475-.500 power in his peak, which is significant if he’s still in the middle infield.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Sep 13, 2025 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not close

The one concern I would have over a long period of time is, as Alskor mentioned, is that Heyward has been injury prone. Even so, he is the easy selection. I am very curious to see how and if his nicks and bruises effect his career.

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by JDSussman on Sep 13, 2025 8:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Thoughts

At Ceiling, Heyward wins easily. At Floor, Heyward wins easily.
BUT at a mid point projection its a coin flip to me. Heyward may well have better offensive numbers, but I’ll say it again, the drop off to a replacement player at RF is less then at SS.

by ADLC on Sep 13, 2025 8:24 AM EDT reply actions  

if Heyward has a bad BABIP year (lets say .250), he still will provide SOME value because he does other things well

if that happens to Starlin, and his BA is in the .270/.280 range for one year… You’ll have a mess on your hands. Heyward could bat .230-.250 and still be valuable offensively. Starlin couldn’t bat .270 and be useful given his current walk rates and power numbers. In that regard, I still like Heyward’s ‘mid-point’ projection more than Starlin’s.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 13, 2025 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Positional Value be damned

A lot of the time, we tend to overrate the studly corner OF/1B prospects that can rake and underrate those middle of the diamond types who do everything average to well above average. With that said, Jason Heyward’s playing about as well as any 20 year old apart from the Ted Williams/Mel Ott/ Al Kaline types.

Castro fans shouldn’t take this as a slight; he’s a phenomenally talented young player. I’d go as far as to say that if one were to make this question Castro V. J. Upton, it would give me some pause (and I’m a huge Upton fan) but Heyward is such a unique talent.

by FDRNEWDEAL on Sep 13, 2025 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

3 HR and 8 SB / 6 CS with average or slightly below defense and a mediocre approach at the plate

isn’t what I’d call doing multiple things well above average. He has a plus plus hit tool and everything else is average at best.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 13, 2025 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

for a 20 year old

Playing in the majors, that’s plenty plus. As 2010 began, I thought the Cubs were stupid (as usual) to even think about starting Castro. He’s proven to be solid at the MLB level at 20. He did this as SS no less. It’s easy to understand why Cubs fans are excited over the guy.

I’d still take Heyward over him in a heartbeat- but that’s probably true of anyone not named Longroria (who’s got the most team friendly contract in American sports).

by FDRNEWDEAL on Sep 13, 2025 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I voted Castro.

I also realize that objectively and statistically I should take Castro. Basically, I feel Castro deserves a 75/25 split rather than a 90/10 split in this poll. It’s my gut saying he’s got a 25% chance of being better than Heyward for some of the reasons described above by the pro-Castro camp besides plus/plus defense. Perhaps Posey/Heyward might have been the better smackdown?

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 13, 2025 11:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Voted Heyward

but I can’t fault anyone who picks Castro.

Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.

by Whiteyballer on Sep 13, 2025 11:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Mike Stanton versus Castro would have been better comparison. Then you're seeing some faults in Stantons game and do you want the 50 HR power or the defensive whiz SS?

But do I want the guy that is near the best 20 year olds in the history of the game in Jason Heyward, rivaled only by guys like Griffey and A-Rod and Cabrera in recent memory or do I want Castro? I might want Elvis Andrus over Castro. There isn’t much of a decision to make.

by Humbled Fan on Sep 13, 2025 12:53 PM EDT reply actions  

voted Heyward

And enjoyed the debate in this thread.

by Dingbat Charlie on Sep 13, 2025 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Heyward

All world talent. Castro will be good no doubt about it, but Heyward is doing historically well this season, despites some slumps and injuries!

by bezeerk on Sep 14, 2025 3:09 PM EDT reply actions  


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