Either/Or: Casey Kelly vs. Kyle Drabek

by John Sickels on May 23, 2025 9:00 AM EDT

If you could have either Casey Kelly, Boston Red Sox pitching prospect, or Kyle Drabek, Toronto Blue Jays pitching prospect, which one would you pick?

Both are in Double-A right now. Drabek is two years older and more experienced and has more current velocity, but Kelly is ultra-athletic and projectable. Both are currently in the Eastern League, Drabek with a 3.59 ERA and a 48/24 K/BB in 53 innings, 51 hits. Kelly is on a stricter pitch count and has thrown just 28 innings, with a 28/13 K/BB, 30 hits and a 4.45 ERA. Both entered '10 as Grade B+ prospectsin my book.

How do you see them now?

Poll

Who is a better prospect, Kyle Drabek of the Blue Jays, or Casey Kelly of the Red Sox?

Kyle Drabek

566 votes

Casey Kelly

477 votes

1043 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 60 comments | 0 recs |

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Read More: Casey Kelly (P - SDP), Kyle Drabek (P - TOR)

Comments

Drabek

I voted Kyle, simpy because he seems more polished at this point. I’d like to see him get called up to AAA for the second half of the season, and then he could take a run at a rotation/bullpen job for the Jays in 2011.

by Matty34 on May 23, 2025 9:20 AM EDT reply actions

Drabek

Have to go with Kyle as well. More polished, one of the best curves in the minors, and a tough attitude on the mound. Could eventually form quite a R-L punch with Romero at the top of the rotation.

by brewerm on May 23, 2025 10:05 AM EDT reply actions

This is tough

There’s something about Casey Kelly that I just like more.

by Jeff Reese on May 23, 2025 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

Drabek

He has been much better and has been a pitcher longer

by Yankees10 on May 23, 2025 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

Ugh Ugh Ugh

I really like Kelly, but I’m probably the biggest fan of Drabek on here. So I think I need to go with Drabek. Kelly I considered top 20, so Drabek as well.

My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.

by cwhitman412 on May 23, 2025 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

Kelly

He projects for more velocity. Brabek’s lack of MPH will catch up with him at the Majors and I see him as a decent #3.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 23, 2025 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Lack of MPH?

“Brabek” works in the low 90s and tops out at 94. How is that a lack of MPH?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 23, 2025 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

and....

its in fact the complete opposite.
Kelly has raised eyebrows because he regularily only works in the 88mph range while Drabek works 3-5 ticks higher.

Plus you factor in Drabek might drop the best hammer in the minors making this, IMO, not even that close

by ScottAZ on May 23, 2025 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

you would think he would get more Ks then

by matthewmafa on May 23, 2025 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Not necessarily

Drabek is getting 8K/9 and is getting plenty of groundouts as well. K’s are flashy, but there is nothing wrong with being more economical with your pitches.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 23, 2025 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

there's also nothing wrong with 8K/9

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on May 24, 2025 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

The two actually work at pretty much the same velocity.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on May 23, 2025 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions

ummmmm

As it stands now, I think Drabek may need another full year of seasoning before making the jump to the major league level, that is unless he makes considerable progress with his pitches and mechanics. The guy I saw yesterday would be no more than a No. 4-5 starter if inserted into a rotation next week. Drabek could turn into a solid No. 3 starter. He won’t be a No. 1-2 unless he figures out a way to add a few MPH to his four-seamer or more movement to his two-seamer.

I guess “Royal” fans don’t read scouting reports. This one from is from projectprospect

by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 24, 2025 6:20 AM EDT up reply actions

When was that posted...

The same article also stated this:

Drabek’s four-fastball was a bit of a question mark. Sitting 91-93 MPH, he was able to frequently locate it within the zone.

Personally I don’t put much stock into Project Prospect as it is just a bunch of fan boys who try to make stupid rankings to generate buzz (i.e. their top 25 list). Regardless can you find me a source that says Kelly throws harder then Drabek?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Just a bunch of fan boys?

They may not be the best source out there or anything, but I’d take their opinion over that of pretty much any poster on this site. They at least talk to scouts, see guys themselves, and use video to back up their opinions. Disagree with their rankings if you want, but at least show a little respect.

by nixa37 on May 24, 2025 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Nope

I have read enough of their material to know that most of it is bogus. I have a hard time believing that they really talk to scouts. Anybody can use an unnamed source.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Umm...

“Anybody can use an unnamed source”

You realize you just pretty well covered your buddy Dewey and all of his nonsense this past offseason right?

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Possibly

But do you respect Dewey’s unnamed sources? Dewey’s material is often controversial and people such as yourself tend not to like it because he goes with his gut and not a known source. I am sure people won’t be happy with our top 10 overrated and underrated fanposts which will be posted over the next few weeks. That being said, anyone who trusts a blogger’s ‘source’ is likely to be very misled.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

wait

So Dewey’s “unnamed sources” are in his gut?

Makes sense.

by mrkupe on May 24, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would I care about Dewey's sources?

I am not going to worry about any other posters sources. I can only worry about the legitimacy of my own. Blaming me for Dewey’s faults doesn’t seem very fair.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

You are producing work with him

If you don’t believe the legitimacy of his claims, why would you associate yourself with him? Just doesn’t compute man.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I never said I don't believe the legitmacy of his claims

I know him personally and he watches more minor league ball then anyone I know. I am just saying that I understand that other people may not believe the legitimacy of his claims. The only people I trust are the experts such as John, Goldstein, and Callis. Occasionally I gain respect for a blogger but I am very hesitant to put my faith in people who can hide behind ‘unnamed sources’.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok

It’s not any different than the situation with Project Prospect though, Dewey just happens to be a friend of yours so you don’t doubt his stuff. That’s fine I guess, but it seems like a double standard and pretty inconsistent reasoning.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

You are missing the difference

As someone who personally knows someone, you will obviously know whether or not to believe their sources. If you are going to put the same faith in a blogger, as you would in a person you trust and respect, then that is a very risky belief system. It is not a double standard, instead it is good judgment.

I am not telling anyone not to believe Project Prospect’s ‘sources’, I am just hesitant to believe their fanboy posters. With you starting your own blog i can see how a viewpoint, such as my own, may be worrisome to you. However, it doesn’t change the legitimacy of the claim that people should be very wary when trusting online material. That said if the poster proves over time that his/her information is correct and he has good results in prospecting, then I will be more inclined to believe him/her but nobody deserves instant credibility.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not missing the difference

If you weren’t friends with Dewey you’d have no reason to believe what he says anymore than you believe what Project Prospect says. Probably less so, because when pressed for source material he’s flat refused to provide it. You stick up for him because he’s your friend and that is great, loyalty is a good thing.

Dewey=friend of yours, watches minor league baseball=reliable

PP=“blogger”, watches minor league baseball=unreliable

The difference there is easy to see. As for the last paragraph…me being part of Bullpen Banter has no bearing on my comments. I’ve written all of one piece in the last month or so due to personal reasons and while I hope to be back writing regularly again soon I’ve done it solely because I enjoy writing. Your viewpoint isn’t worrisome to me because I’m not looking to make a career out of what I’ve written or might write in the future so whether or not people like you or anyone decide to believe what I write doesn’t matter too much to me. The only thing I can do is cite source material if I draw from it, instead of claiming to have info then declining to provide it. That’s enough transparency for me to be comfortable.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

There is a clear difference between ME & PP

I present information and opinions on prospects that I feel strongly about. This is based on my research and overall baseball knowledge.

As for PP, they just attempt to stir up controversy by putting out ridiculous lists that’s sole purpose is to be different than everyone else. I understand that some of you don’t agree with my positions on certain prospects, but my reasoning is far more justified than the guys on PP just putting crap together for the sake of being different (from BA, BP, etc). There is NO legitimacy to this approach. In fact, I think this is shameful and irresponsible.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on May 24, 2025 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

And this is why you're a running joke

PP just attempts to stir up controversy? So all the video they have that they break actually break down and present as evidence is what exactly? They actually show us visual evidence to back up their claims. You’re basically a monkey throwing crap at the wall.

by nixa37 on May 24, 2025 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

oh please

Is breaking down youtube clips all it takes to impress you? Yikes. ANYBODY can do that. Furthermore, as I have already mentioned, I don’t portray myself as a scout. Unfortunately, the PP guys are misleading everyone (including you) into thinking they are ‘scouts’. They’re just a couple of fans that happen to have a website and use it to falsely legitimize their ‘scouting’.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on May 24, 2025 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

When exactly

Have you ever broken down anything? You just spout off you opinion and use what other people say to back it up. They’re actually doing original work. You can agree or disagree, but at least respect the effort. They’re doing a whole lot more than you are.

Oh, and a lot of their newer video is stuff they actually shot themselves. Not just random youtube clips. And the fact that they’re breaking down the clips isn’t what impresses me, rather their breakdowns are usually quite good and pretty informative. They contribute a lot more than I’ve ever seen from you.

And before you try to label me, I’m not in anyway a fan boy of the site. I check it on occasion, but at no point have I ever posted there or anything like that. I just happen to respect the work I’ve seen from the,.

by nixa37 on May 24, 2025 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Dewey

I don’t believe Dewey has half the information he claims to have. He claimed to have info on Carlos Santana and steadfastly refused to provide any links to the material for anyone else to see. He was asked repeatedly to provide some kind of source material and the best he did was link to an Indians site that had nothing to do with what he was claiming and to then say he’d have to check with you for the info. I want to say there was a similar situation last year with him and Brett Anderson, but I’d have to go back search through that thread to be 100% positive.

So no, I don’t trust Dewey’s “sources”, as I believe he just goes with his own opinion on things without showing anything to back it up. The thing that doesn’t make sense is you’re bashing Adam and the guys at Project Prospect for the EXACT things your buddy does, and you’ve stood up for him many times. It just seems that it’s not the “unnamed sources” that are really the problem for you, it’s who’s presenting the info that determines whether it’s ok with you or not.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

gatling

You really need to let this go. There are more important things in life than trying to discredit me. Listen, whenever I come across online material with regards to prospects, I don’t always write down the website or bookmark it on my internet explorer/firefox. Instead, I make a mental note of what I read (something that I found interesting/noteworthy) about a prospect and then mention it for discussion on this site when I want to. This whole crap about me making up stuff/facts is ridiculous dude. I have nothing to gain from that. If you don’t want to believe the information I present, than don’t. My feelings aren’t hurt. I am a huge prospects follower and read multiple prospect sites/blogs/articles/news on a daily basis. I’m sorry, but I can’t always keep track of where I got a certain piece of information from. To be honest, I don’t need to either because I don’t feel the urgency to prove myself to you or anyone else on this site. I come here for prospects discussions and participate when I have something to say.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on May 24, 2025 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

This is hilarious

You’re claiming you’re better than PP while simultaneously defending yourself because you read multiple prospect sites/blogs/articles/news on a daily basis. Maybe I missed something, but isn’t PP a prospect site/blog? You know, like the ones you use for info? Except, you know, they’re actually doing their own thing and not just reading what a bunch of other people have to say.

by nixa37 on May 24, 2025 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

gatling, please put the leash back on your little doggy

Also, I don’t claim to be a scout, I’m merely an obsessed baseball fan who provides my input from time to time. PP throws out these ‘scouting reports’ that are a joke. It’s quite sad that they have guys like you fooled into thinking that they are legitimate scouts who know what they are talking about. They are no different than any poster here. Unfortunately, because they have a site of their own, people like you are giving them more credit than they deserve.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on May 24, 2025 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions

If people on this site did the detailed scouting PP does

I’d give them respect for the effort, whether or not I agreed with their conclusions. At least they’re bringing something worthwhile to the discussion.

As for being Gatling’s little doggy, I don’t even know the dude. I notice his posts from time to time, but I couldn’t tell you where he stands on anything. Just because we happen to agree that PP deserves some respect and that you’re a running joke, doesn’t really mean anything.

As for why being fooled by PP into thinking they’re “legitimate scouts” I don’t really know how to respond. I’ll look at their scouting reports and the video they present and see how their opinion compares to mine. I’ve done a lot of my own research into pitching and hitting mechanics. As I’ve mentioned before, I actually got the opportunity to do a bit of 3D motion capture stuff for baseball using equipment designed for golf. I don’t think what PP says is gospel or anything, but they have an idea of what they’re talking about and some of their stuff is fairly informative. I’ve gotten a lot more out of their stuff than I have from yours (excluding laughs of course…I kid, I kid).

by nixa37 on May 25, 2025 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Everybody in the industry uses unnamed sources

How often do BA and Goldstein use unnamed sources? Is this a serious critique of their work?

I also like how you completely skipped over them actually getting out there and watching guys, as well as backing up their opinions with accompanying video. How many people who post on this site go through that much work? I’ll say it again, I’d take their opinion over that of pretty much any poster on this site. Do you disagree for any reason other than their rankings differing significantly from BA and BP?

And seriously, how can you go about defending a running joke like Dewey (Thole > Santana…LOL), while simultaneously putting down PP’s stuff? I don’t know how anyone in their right mind can defend those two positions.

by nixa37 on May 24, 2025 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Response

Everybody in the industry uses unnamed sources

Project Prospect writers are not in the industry.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Once again you addressed nothing I actually said

Whether or not you consider PP to be part of the industry, people in the industry use unnamed sources constantly, so using that as a critique of their work doesn’t seem fair. If its good enough for BA and BP, why isn’t it good enough for PP?

And seriously, do you think its that hard to talk to scouts? They have a very thankless job where they get almost no recognition from the outside world. Many of them are happy to talk to casual fans about their opinions, just because it means someone cares. Why do you doubt that they’d talk to Adam about their personal opinions on guys?

by nixa37 on May 24, 2025 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't trust their souces...

If they start producing more interviews with legitimate front office personnel (i.e. John often interviews legit MLB management) I may start trusting their sources more. Otherwise it will take a long time for me to trust a faceless blogger. People are too quick to trust people who claim to be experts.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2025 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

So they need to interview front office personnel

In order for you to believe they talk to scouts? Do you not see how that makes no sense in any way, shape, or form? You’ve gone from saying you don’t believe they have unnamed sources to complaining they don’t interview front office personnel enough. I don’t see how those two things are in anyway related.

by nixa37 on May 24, 2025 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Even if you don’t take their rankings or video analysis seriously they are very entertaining. I would miss their stuff as much as I will miss Jose Lima’s smile! - rip

"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism

by chewbalka on May 24, 2025 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Im going Kelly

I feel that both prospects have been hyped over the couple of seasons. However, they are both in the same league, Kelly is two years younger, is projectable and already has better command. He also has a changeup that is better than Drabek’s.

I will say that I dont think either becomes an ace, even if they werent in the AL East. I think they are going to be very solid #2s if they reach their potential and if not, #3s

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on May 23, 2025 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

drabek

I like Kelly’s upside, but truth be told we don’t really know what he is yet. Pretty amazing that he hasn’t even reached 100 innings pitched as a pro . . .we have no clue how he’s going to do with things like pitching fatigue deep into a season and how he’s going to handle lineups consistently the second or third time around. His initial 100 innings have been promising but inconclusive as to how he ultimately projects.

It’s an interesting comparison, but I have more faith in Drabek being able to bring the whole package as a starting pitcher.

by mrkupe on May 23, 2025 3:33 PM EDT reply actions

I'd take Jordan Lyles over both

Around the same age as Kelly and pitching more innings in AA. He’s also athletic and still very projectible.

2 years younger than Drabek and putting up slightly better numbers than him.

He hasn’t gotten the same hype as these guy’s but if Lyles continues to put up numbers in AA then i think that will soon change.

by Rhombus67 on May 23, 2025 7:13 PM EDT reply actions

I dont know a lot about Lyles

but i think part of this is because of the massive amount of hype these two have gotten. I think there are a lot of AA pitchers who have less recognition that are better, but because they weren’t in trade talks for Roy Halladay/Adrian Gonzalez or aren’t/weren’t on the Red Sox/Phillies, are relatively unknown outside of their team’s fanbase…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on May 23, 2025 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Who are these pitchers you speak of?

Please name for us, I’d love to know.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Simon Castro?

Similar in age and body type, and has put up better numbers in AA this year after skipping high A completely. If the increase in ground balls this year is real (note the small sample size) it could be argued that he’s a better prospect than Drabek. He also has a cleaner bill of health, although Drabek’s injury history isn’t that troubling. I don’t think his secondary stuff is as well developed, but the results have been promising.

by 19pad on May 24, 2025 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I could see that

but Castro isn’t a relative unknown in prospectdom or around here. Now if lakersdodgers meant they don’t get recognition from the national media(ESPN)…well he’d be right but it’s also a weak argument because the national media doesn’t really cover the minors in general. After he posted his comment I went to my top 100 list from this past offseason and immediately found Mike Montgomery and Simon Castro as guys I had behind both of Drabek and Kelly(though Kelly was only 4 spots ahead of Montgomery) who I could see being on the same level now or a bit ahead. Is Colome in High A or AA? If he’s in AA I could see him above Drabek/Kelly now. The thing is that’s not “alot of AA pitchers” and certainly not guys that don’t get recognition by people who follow prospects.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Colome is in the Midwest League

And he’ll probably be there all season considering the organization he’s in.

by Jeff Reese on May 24, 2025 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

That's what I thought

Hadn’t taken the time to look it up when posting that. I just don’t see there being real substance to the original comment about there being a lot of AA pitchers better than Drabek/Kelly who get no recognition.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I shouldnt have used "a lot of guys"

My point was that there are prospects that are unknown to people who don’t follow the minors(ie, not people on this site), but are most likely at similar talent level to Kelly/Drabek and have similar ceilings…

Sorry for the confusion

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on May 24, 2025 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok

Thanks for explaining. I would still like to hear what AA pitchers you’re talking about though.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 24, 2025 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Both

Project as good middle of the rotation pitchers, with the possibility of turning into good number starters if all things go right.

Though I would take Kelly, because I think he has a higher probability of staying in a major league rotation for 10 to 15 years. I really don’t see what all the fuss is about with either of them.

Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.

by CoolCat23 on May 23, 2025 7:25 PM EDT reply actions

Kelly

-two plus secondary offerings that project as MLB out pitches
-no injury history

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on May 23, 2025 7:58 PM EDT reply actions

Kyle has been overrated because his name is Drabek.

Based on his actual performance, Drabek looks no better than a No. 3, if that. This is his second season in the Eastern League. His results both seasons have been solid, but not more.

by Derekcarstairs on May 24, 2025 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

I'd have to go with Kelly, too, but obviously we're splitting hairs here

Kelly has more upside given his youth, his superior fastball movement, and his superior third pitch, which offsets the advantage that Drabek has in terms of MLB-readiness.

They’re both great prospects, but I would argue that Kelly’s arm is a bit more upside-oriented.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 24, 2025 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

normally I'd agree

But if we’re going to go with the “upside-oriented” angle, I’m taking the guy who has better present velocity AND the best secondary pitch between the two.

by mrkupe on May 24, 2025 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions