Sunday Discussion
Which player drafted in the first round this year do you think is most likely to be a failure?
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63 comments
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Mike Minor
As far as the highest pick goes. A future #4/#5 starter going that high is crazy. He will be solid I think, but having a .500 pitcher with only average stuff isnt really the kind of guy you want with the 7th pick in the draft. I dont think a lot of GM’s think, when picking in the first round “We just got ourselves the next Jeff Suppan.”
Other candidates for the biggest first round bust, imo, would be Drew Storen, Eric Arnett, Nick Franklin and Slade Heathcott.
by backtocali on Jun 21, 2025 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what is failure?
Several of these first rounders will never reach MLB - I think in that sense, if you see Minor as a solid back-end starter but nothing special, he’d likely become one of the better players to come out of this draft (look at the careers of a given draft class and you’ll see what I mean).
If failures never reach MLB, then take a few of the HS/high-risk guys at random and you’ve got your most likely failures, IMO.
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by rswanzey on Jun 21, 2025 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The reason so few reach the MLB is largely due to injury
I don’t see how Minor is immune to injury risk, so he’s a guy with a lower ceiling and about the same chance of being successful.
by Fanon on Jun 22, 2025 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Minor
If you are talking about value for spot then you might be right. However I think Minor will be a solid major leaguer. Something a lot of the other picks won’t manage
by DeJay on Jun 21, 2025 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Craziest statement I have ever heard
Anyone who plays in the majors even as a 4 or 5 is not a bust..
Soren and Minor are (after Strausburg) the least likely busts!!!
by novaoakland on Jun 22, 2025 5:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shelby Miller
The man has one pitch.
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by Conjunction on Jun 21, 2025 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he has a good curveball
he just was throwing to the radar guns, or at least that’s what i’ve read.
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by erik on Jun 21, 2025 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miller
Did you even care to watch the scouting video or read any articles on Miller? Or are you simply making an assumption that you pulled from your ass?
Every scouting report I have read has said that Miller has a curveball that projects to be plus in the future if he can find consistency with it.
by CoolCat23 on Jun 21, 2025 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a pretty big "if"
which I assume is why he made the post. A little harsh on your response, don’t you think?
by was385 on Jun 21, 2025 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Completely appropriate
whenb dealing with those too lazy to do the research to back up their claims.
by CoolCat23 on Jun 21, 2025 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rangers were rumored like hell to be after Miller.
I read everything there was. My conclusion was strikingly similar: fastball + a lot of hoping the other stuff falls in line.
by NoNameOnCard on Jun 22, 2025 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not exactly uncommon with HS pitchers
Jacob Turner, for example, has similar secondary stuff
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by OldProspects on Jun 22, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Define failure...
Because I think its most likely to be Stephen Strasburg if failure means he doesn’t live up to what people expect of him. I think he is going to be a good pro pitcher, but he’s not going to be the second coming like most people are EXPECTING him to be.
by loop on Jun 21, 2025 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
7 out of ten of these guys are going to pretty much fail, going by past history
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by erik on Jun 21, 2025 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
We’ve got how many HS pitchers taken in the first? Considering only injuries, you’ve got a whole list of pitchers that are destined to fail.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Jun 21, 2025 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1) Reymond Fuentes
2) Nick Franklin
3) LeVon Washington
by Frederick0220 on Jun 21, 2025 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jiovanni Mier
The astros really need to start making better picks
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by MJMars on Jun 21, 2025 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
-1
2008 draft looking pretty great right now. Castro, Lyles, Seaton, Steele, Gaston, and Dydalewicz all looking like solid picks, despite some criticism. This draft is really a big test for Heck, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt in his second year after a pretty great first year.
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 21, 2025 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, the 2008 draft is looking very good...
but, I don’t think we can automatically say the success of that draft makes this draft, or Mier specifically, a slam dunk. That being said I like Mier, and I think he is a pretty safe HS player since he has a great defensive tools, has shown the ability to hit, and could/should grow into some very respectable power. I also really like Tanner Bushue.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jun 21, 2025 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
well, i was just saying “the astros really [don’t] need to start making better picks.” i wasn’t saying that mier won’t be a 1st round failure.
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 21, 2025 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that part.
I think Bobby Heck is the man. Five or Six 2008 draftees could end up on Houston’s top 10 prospect list at the end of the year.
I think all the first round arms, most notably Shelby Miller, are most likely to fail. I think Strasburg fits in their too, because of the risk of him blowing out his arm too early, as well as Kyle Gibson.
Slade Heathcott and Fuentes are both very risky, which is why they weren’t worth the price tag to 28 teams.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jun 21, 2025 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what do you think of Wade Gaynor in the 3rd round for them?
by Bravesin07 on Jun 21, 2025 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoops, that was the tigers
Turner could end up busting because everyone is going to think he’s the next Porcello.
by Bravesin07 on Jun 21, 2025 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg
Compared to his expectations
His mechanics are awful. I smell another Homer Bailey.
by METSMETSMETS on Jun 21, 2025 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bailey
Have you seen Bailey recently? He is dominating AAA since he added his new pitch and is only 23 years old. People seem to think that young kids are supposed to burst on to the scene but that rarely happens. Give guys some time and they may actually reach your expectations. If the Reds want Homer to succeed they need to tell him that he is going to get 10 starts and let him work through his jitters. It isn’t easy for a kid to learn when he knows he will be sent to the minors if he has one bad game.
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by King Billy Royal on Jun 22, 2025 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dominating AAA...
is like dominating your Elementary School in kickball…LOTS of people have done it…
we’ll see what Bailey does when back in the majors.
I was gonna’ say Rick Ankiel as a pitcher.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jun 22, 2025 6:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
except
ankiel actually had success in the major leagues as a pitcher
by richieabernathy on Jun 22, 2025 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
either way
It’s kick ball in elementary.
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by 306008 on Jun 23, 2025 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tony Sanchez
Defensive catcher with a questionable bat.
by jar75 on Jun 21, 2025 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd say he's the one of the most likely to succeed
because a defensive catcher with a questionable bat is a lot better than most of these guys, and that’s his floor.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 21, 2025 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Seems like a massive overdraft, and I can see his bat stagnating in AA.
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by Brickhaus on Jun 22, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Toss up
Nick Franklin or Tony Sanchez.
by garry maddox on Jun 21, 2025 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Donovan Tate
Pretty iffy when the the #3 overall has a questionable hit tool.
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by garrioch13 on Jun 21, 2025 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
From BaseballAnalysts.com interview
Rich: I remember Tate in the Aflac Classic last August quite well. He had a couple of memorable at-bats. In the sixth inning, after being behind in the count 0-and-1 and 1-and-2, he worked the count to 3-and-2 before flying out to left on the eighth pitch of his at-bat. Tate had an even better at-bat in the ninth inning when he fell behind 0-and-2 and fouled off five pitches on his way to working the count to 3-and-2, then got on base via an infield single to shortstop. He also scored the East’s first run that inning on a wild pitch. I wrote down on my scoresheet, “tall, strong, fast, runs well” but was most impressed with his approach in those two at-bats.
Paul: It’s interesting that you mention those ab’s, because we heard some rumbings during the spring that Donavan’s bat was “raw,” and yet we had a representative at nearly all of his games and just didn’t see it. I guess it all depends on the perspective: the bat may be “raw” as compared to his other tools or as compared to the top college bats, but as compared with the other high school bats… we felt comfortable with the risk.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/qa_paul_depodes.php
I don’t know what to make of this, I heard the “questionable hit tool” comments and didn’t take Tate in Sickels’ mock draft… However, I think the Padres drafting team deserves a lot more credit than they get (Decker, Darnell, Forsythe, etc.) and thus I’m not going to pretend I know more about Tate than they do.
by pffriberg on Jun 21, 2025 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fwiw
In the days leading up to the draft, I came to the conclusion that “Donavan Tate’s hittability” was one of the most overblown issues in the entire draft class. I’ve seen mutliple sources commenting that his hit tool was questionable but every source was very short on specifics. On the other hand, everybody citing actual in-game scouting of the guy talks up how he’s quite adept at working counts and making contact even against quality pitches.
My personal guess is that there are a lot of teams that think that Tate’s bat is just fine but that they were not sold on it being a “$6 million bat” or however much he wants. So then scouts start saying that they have questions on his bat being worth that much and word filters down that the “scouts have questions”. Groupthink takes over and suddenly Tate can’t hit.
If Tate’s price tag was, say, $2 million rather than $5-6 million, I’m pretty skeptical that you’d be hearing many questions about his bat.
by mrkupe on Jun 22, 2025 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it all depends
I’m thinking Strasburg due to expectations as well.
Tony Sanchez when you look at all the talent they passed on.
Matt Hobgood considering Wheeler and Matzek still on the board.
It really depends though what you consider a failure living up to your selection or if you just don’t see the majors?
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by tj.hendricks on Jun 21, 2025 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
definition
Failure: does not get to the majors.
by John Sickels on Jun 21, 2025 5:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about this...
Matzek will get to the majors, but he won’t sign for the Rockies in a million years.
by Forza Hudd on Jun 22, 2025 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harold Reynolds said he was the #1 player on his board!
How could he be wrong?
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by RoyalsRetro on Jun 22, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not positive but pretty sure he said purely off of film, don’t actually think he was trying to say he has the best chance of being a MLB superstar or anything.
by jfish26101 on Jun 22, 2025 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My top 2
Matt Purke: future arm/shoulder problems very, very likely
Brett Jackson: sure he has tools, but will never hit enough, or put it all together.
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by Fla-Giant on Jun 21, 2025 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
People think
Purke has as slinging motion that puts a lot of strain on the shoulder.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jun 22, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there a link or something?
I’ve only read two reports on his mechanics, and I wrote one of them.
by NoNameOnCard on Jun 22, 2025 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What i have read is this
no real analysis other than yours but scouting reports and other ppl who have seen him pitch. Ppl who like him think he has a nice free motion. Ppl who hate him think he has a slinging motion. Im pretty sure the rangers were okay with his mechanics. While not perfect I think Purke’s mechanics are okay, not great, not terrible.
by Michael Cave on Jun 22, 2025 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just want to know mentioned the shoulder as the likely point of trouble.
I haven’t read that anywhere. I hinted at it, but I was more freaked out by the torque in his elbow.
by NoNameOnCard on Jun 22, 2025 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to qualify what I wrote
I wasn’t specifically saying the shoulder was a problem area. I was just generally saying that I believe it’s very likely he will develop some arm problem(s) over the next 3-4 years and I thought if I just left it at that people wouldn’t necessarily think I was including the shoulder in my prediction. I’m no expert, so this is all just my opinion. I did read 2 reports that analyzed his motion, and watched several videos before the draft. I agree that his shoulder doesn’t seem now to be a problem area, but you know how injuries go. A lot of times a player ends up injuring an area of their body while compensating for pain/discomfort in a different area.
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by Fla-Giant on Jun 22, 2025 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reymond Fuentes
The Red Sox have a great scouting department but this doesnt fit the typical Red Sox player of recent.
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by Pelferized on Jun 22, 2025 3:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's why I don't question it even though I was like, who?
Until they stop scouting well, I’ll just watch and see.
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by 306008 on Jun 23, 2025 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tate
Seems like there’s no middle ground in his list of possible outcomes
by ofsticksandbats on Jun 22, 2025 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Drew Storen
Serious overdraft (obviously to even out Strasburg’s demands). I also don’t like the recent track record with college relievers taken too early in the first round (Dan Moskos, Craig Hansen, Ryan Wagner), and I dislike the recent history of Stanford pitchers even more.
Waiting for April.
by DC Royal on Jun 22, 2025 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree, but with the Nats reliever corps
he’d have to be hit by a truck not to make the Majors.
by VladiHondo on Jun 22, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Donovan Tate
Seems like the obvious answer to me.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jun 22, 2025 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Slade?
Slade Heathcott had some make up issues and if he struggles in the minors he could blow up and alienate his teammates.
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