Could Gary Sheffield be one of them? Or Ken Griffey Jr.?

The first half of his career here looks an awful lot like Sammy Sosa. could also be Bagwell, but Upton K’s a lot more than Bags did.

The whole career has a very similar arc to that of Willie Stargell. Spends the first few years of his career as a very solid 20-35 HR guy, with a 4-5 year peak as one of the 2 or 3 best hitters in his league, then another long stretch as a 20-35 HR guy late in his career (not really a standard “decline” phase, as he’s solid and steady for a long time before retiring). High power, moderate walk, high strikeout, BA all over the map.

…..if you have him giving my O’s 3 solid years. I’ll take that and just agree so I don’t jinks it.

That’s a kick ass baseball card. I hope that is from your personal collection.

..but glad this one isnt a prediction. I think he a) Wont take as long to start being a great player B) Will strike out more even when he becomes awesome C) Steal more bases

and why would he take such a dropoff when he joined the O’s? No reason I guess… just one possible outcome.

Nice work. I enjoy these.

If he had broke in 3 years earlier they are very similar.

so I voted for better peak in the poll.

If he lives up to this he will be one of the greatest OF ever. I can’t see how anyone could say pessimistic

Mr. October, Reggie Jackson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml

So far no one has guessed the two comps.

I will reveal it tomorrow if no one comes up with them.

If I win, can the prize be a write up of an underreported but promising Mariner prospect complements or expands on this week’s LL report?

stan the man and the say hey kid?

Nope….no one has it right yet.

and Frank Robinson

A combo of Ripken and Killebrew?

First half of career is vaguely based on Darryl Strawberry. Second half is vaguely based on George Foster.

Great to see a Crystal Ball on Upton. I’m more bullish on Upton than you, as I’d be willing to bet on him picking up a few more SB’s while he’s still young and having 1-3 more seasons like his proposed age-25/28 seasons. I’d also feel comfortable keeping his level of play just a bit higher in his early 30’s, as I see him as more of a 30-35HR guy during that period. Otherwise, I’m right with you, particularly starting at age 33.

I am curious as to why you don’t see Upton stealing more bases as a young player, and whether or not you see him ever moving back to CF (which would be the difference between a player with your Crystal Ball being a top tier HOF’r or just a mere HOF’r.)

Except (shudder) Andrew Dawson…