Dustin Pedroia Crystal Ball

by John Sickels on Apr 11, 2025 12:29 PM EDT Comment 23 comments

It's been a long time since I've done any Crystal Balls. For you new readers, the Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out.". The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him. It is not just thrown together; I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground.

Here is a Crystal Ball for Dustin Pedroia.

Poll

Rate this Crystal Ball

Too Optimistic; his peak won't be that good

166 votes

Too Optimistic; his career won't last that long

117 votes

Just Right

390 votes

Too Pessimistic; his career will last longer

56 votes

Too Pessimistic; his peak will be better

185 votes

914 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Looks pretty realistic

I would say slightly better peak and perhaps his power will age a little better.

I do expect him to be about done by the time you do. First off, I think we are going to see more and more of that natural aging pattern rather than steroid abusers like Bonds mocking the game into their 40’s. Baseball SHOULD be played by young, fast guys. Secondly, Pedroia has that strange, swing from your heels stroke. If he loses bat speed that could get ugly quickly. But hey, I never thought he was this good and we dont have any comps… so who the hell knows with this weirdo. His best skill has always been inhuman hand/eye coordination, so it wouldnt shock me to see him become an empty average, high OBP 2B and stay that way late into his 30’s.

Even though it seems his skills could go quickly, his skills arent just good - theyre a few standard deviations good. So he has a lot of ground to give… for instance his defense. Even if he loses a step or two he’s going to be a decent defender. He had a UZR/150 of 10.4 last season, so if he loses speed after 30… well, he could still stay around average. Wouldnt be a huge suprise to see him as a walk machine, empty average hanger on for a while.

by alskor on Apr 11, 2025 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I expect both his peak and span to be shorter

Does anyone expect his to hit 54 2B again? It has only been 14 times since 1940. Yes he gets a huge boost from his home park on doubles, which lies outside of 3 standard deviations from the 3 year league average on park factors, but it won’t be enough to recreate last years career year.

To many parts of his numbers last year scream career year. .336 BABIP, a .042 jump in IsoP, a 2% jump in his line drive rate, a doubling of his HR/FB% to 14.3%,.

Lets put last year in perspective. There have been exactly 4 season since 1940 that a player has hit at least 50 or more doubles, 80 or more RBIs, 15 or more doubles, and 20 or more steals.

I would really like to see him recreate the rest of his peripheral stats before he expect him to recreate last years amazing season.

I like the player, but I really didn’t think he deserved the MVP last year, and in a way he is getting over hyped. Which is funny because he went into last year as an under appreciated player.

by laxtonto on Apr 11, 2025 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree

At the same time I think his career might be longer than 37, but I think any rise in power from here will be an anomaly

by Navi's_Navy on Apr 11, 2025 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

These are really cool

Nice work, looks pretty reasonable

Proud adoptive parent of the set-up man.
This is Howry do it!

by CB30 on Apr 11, 2025 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Missed The Crystal Balls

These are great. I think it sounds reasonable.

by MHD on Apr 11, 2025 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Short Career

While I agree we’ll probably see more “typical” age regressions now that PEDs have been curtailed, I do see Pedroia being a starter a little longre than his age 34 season. For one, he’s playing 2nd base where a slight decrease in range from Gold Glove type fielding will still allow him to play 2nd adequately. Secondly, although his swing is unorthodox, he seems smart enough to make adjustments. I do like the regression from “all star quality” to “major league average”. I just think he could possible maintain major league average for another season or so and get closer to 2500 hits.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 11, 2025 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I agree with this. I saw his total hits here and was thinking it might be a bit low. I also think his career average here might be listed a little higher than what he produces. Funny how after Age 31, he deteriorates rapidly. I think he may keep his peak (mainly for ABs and Games and hits) a year or two longer, which would get him closer to 2500 hits.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Apr 12, 2025 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has

little range at second base to begin with.

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Apr 13, 2025 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fail.

Pedroia has very good range.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8370&position=2B#fielding

by alskor on Apr 13, 2025 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good not great range...

+15 in the fielding bible…

Great range is Utley’s +47

Regardless, he has enough range to play 2nd, even if he loses a half a step due to age or injury

by laxtonto on Apr 13, 2025 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didnt say "great"

and let me ask you this: where did that +15 rank?

by alskor on Apr 13, 2025 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

+47 isn’t “great.”

+47 is “god-like”

by alskor on Apr 13, 2025 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice Bell curve

Well at least if you swap career length and peak performance. Looks like this is a right down the middle projection overall.

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Apr 11, 2025 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

borderline HOF IMO with that line

by Bravesin07 on Apr 11, 2025 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no...

though Hall of Very Good, certainly

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Apr 11, 2025 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds right to me

Describing this career path as making him a borderline Hall of Famer sounds right to me. Overall, it looks a bit comparable to Sweet Lou Whitaker, who got started a little later and hung around a little longer — and who, IMO, oughta be in the Hall, along with Alan Trammell and Lance Parrish.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Apr 11, 2025 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HOF

I think if he were to put up those numbers, along with the “scrappy” factor and playing in Boston, he’ll get in.

Also, I’m not completely sold on his decline being that precipitous, due to his ridiculous hand eye coordination. Even if he loses some bat speed, he should be able to still hit .300 a couple of times after he’s 31.

Big fan of the CB’s, John

by seabass on Apr 13, 2025 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sheffield

Anyone else think that looks like Sheffield’s career without the power?

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Apr 11, 2025 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

for the crystal ball! I miss these! I could maybe see him extending his career a bit longer and being a low power .270 hitter off the bench and utility 2b/3b. I think he has enough fire in him that even after the natural skills are gone he can keep going a bit on fumes.

by kershaw_equals_stud on Apr 11, 2025 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Average plus Team

Don’t think he will go to the Angels in 2015, but whatever..also I think his career avergae will be better than a .295…maybe a .300 or .305

by patsrock58 on Apr 11, 2025 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As a Red Sox fan I don’t like seeing the Angels prediction but I know it’s just a crystal ball. Doubt the Sox would let the guy go easily/I get the feeling he’s a Sox lifer. The stats all seem very reasonable and 2011 looks like a helluva season but something in my subconscious says there’s something off about it. I think it’s that I expect him to hit 20-25 HR and reach 90-100 RBIs two or three times. Then again, the numbers do look more than reasonable. Let’s also hope that this 2009 season isn’t the slight lull John is predicting because I think we sort of need him to live up to his full potential again this season.

by Setterlund on Apr 12, 2025 3:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I get the feeling he’s a Sox lifer

These don’t really exist anymore, except for no doubt HoF guys like Pujols and Chipper or people who are overpaid (maybe not at the time of signing but certainly by the end of the contract) like Mike Young and Jeter.

by bushe on Apr 14, 2025 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs