Community Prospect List #3
by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 11:58 AM EST
82 comments
With 76% of the vote, Stephen Strasburg wins the honor of becoming the community's #2 prospect!
Neftali Feliz will be added to the poll.
Suggest testers if you want, however, I'm not planning on putting any just yet, due to the fact the top bunch are mostly agreed upon.
1. Jason Heyward - 51%
130 AB, 50 IP Limits
There will be a Baseball Cube link to all the entries.
0 recs |
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Jesus Got A Big Bat
And he will continue mashing.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 11:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Position aside, he’s got the stick and the work ethic.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 25, 2025 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
-1
Position not aside, he has to be 10-25 runs better with the bat than the other position players on the list to be more valuable than them. Montero’s just not a good bet to be 20 runs better than Pedro Alvarez, or 30 runs better than Buster Posey, or even 10 runs better than Stanton year in, year out.
So yeah, position aside, he may be the best bat on this list. Unfortunately, players actually occupy positions in the real world.
by slamcactus on Dec 26, 2025 4:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 25, 2025 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+2
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 25, 2025 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Went Montero over Stanton
Stanton’s struggles at AA worry me too much to put him this high. The ceiling is immense, but the floor is pretty low with him.
by nixa37 on Dec 25, 2025 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Montero
Bat is very, very good. Best in the minors from a bat only perspective in my opinion. Lack of defensive value gets him here at #3 for me.
by dougdirt on Dec 25, 2025 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think...
he has that much of a better bat than Alvarez. It’s pretty close and I think Alvarez has a good chance at sticking at third for at least a few years which makes him more valuable.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alvarez
Has a strikeout problem that really concerns me overall. Montero struck out literally half as much as the same level this season despite being 3 years younger.
by dougdirt on Dec 25, 2025 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re: Alvarez and strikeouts
Let me rephrase that first part. He doesn’t have a strikeout problem that worries me overall, but for me to name him a Top 5 prospect he does strikeout a bit too much for my liking for a guy who will have all of his value at the plate.
by dougdirt on Dec 25, 2025 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Power-wise, they're pretty similar.
But, Montero’s contact skills are leaps and bounds better than those of Alvarez.
He’s also three years younger.
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by Frederick0220 on Dec 25, 2025 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think right now...
Alvarez has a good lead in power, but Montero could pass him in a few years. I think we will see a better Alvarez this year with all he is doing in the offseason to get in shape. Also, no one in the minors had a second half like him. He just flat out killed everything that came his way and he lowered his strikeout rate ALOT. I like Montero too, I just would give Alvarez the edge because I see him sticking at third.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alvares in the 2nd half
was helped by a .407 BABIP in AA. He didn’t really lower his strikeout rate much as it went from 24% to 22%.
I do have to ask why you see him sticking at 3rd now, when a few posts up you said you only saw it for a few years?
by dougdirt on Dec 25, 2025 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats what I meant...
4 or 5 years at third raises his value by a lot. I didn’t really check his stikeout rate but I followed his games closely and he would have at least two walks every game while not striking out much at all. i truly believe he struggled in Lynchburg because they refused to give him anything to hit and he had to adjust. He started to adjust in Double A and pitchers were less afraid of him so he killed the ball. Also, when your batting around 330(no one thinks he is going to hit that high) then even if his BABIP comes down to around 350, he will still hit for a very respectable 270 or so while taking ALOT of walks and hitting for ALOT of power at third.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Problem with that thinking
is that expecting someone who is slow to have a BABIP of .350 is just incredibly wishful. League average is .290-.300 every year. If his BABIP is .300 and he hits 30 HR while keeping a 22% K rate and 11% BB rate he is a .270 hitter. You got the end result correct but your math was very wrong.
While I agree that the entire package is good and likely capable of an .850 OPS (given the above data for 600 PA with the K, BB and BABIP rates with 35 doubles, a triple and 30 HR he would be at .267/.351/.508) I am just not comfortable placing that ahead of a guy like Montero who if he keeps similar rates and had 40 doubles, 30 HR (roughly on pace for those this season as a 19 year old… incredible) he looks like a .300/.360/.540 guy with a normal .300 BABIP. That is just a flat out stud hitter.
by dougdirt on Dec 25, 2025 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Except..
that hitter BABIP is much more a function of skill than pitcher BABIP. BABIP stabilizes to .290-.300 every year for the league overall. Not individual hitters. Tons of guys sustain higher than average BABIPs for years. There are two types of players who do this. 1) speedy line drive hitters, and 2) guys who absolutely hit the crap out of the ball.
Guys with substantially above average career BABIP’s (.340+) and K%’s above 20 (slow guys in bold):
Miguel Cabrera
David Wright
Bobby Abreu
Reggie Jefferson
Matt Kemp
Matt Diaz
Shin-Soo Choo
Joey Votto
Akinori Iwamura
Mark Reynolds
Brad Hawpe
Manny Ramirez
Mo Vaughn
Ryan Braun
Kevin Youkilis
Chase Headley
Andres Galarragga
Pedro Alvarez isn’t the #3 prospect in baseball, but slow guys who strike out absolutely can maintain high BABIPs over several thousand plate appearances.
Peoples’ understanding of BABIP as it relates to hitters is very, very misguided.
by slamcactus on Dec 26, 2025 4:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whups...
Headley wasn’t supposed to be in bold. I wouldn’t call him a slow guy.
by slamcactus on Dec 26, 2025 4:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
The first guy I looked at struck out 18.5% of the time, so he doesn’t fit your list. Bobby Abreu struck out 18% of the time in his career. He doesn’t fit either. Joey Votto isn’t slow for the record and has a K rate of 18.2%. Iwamura is at 18.9% for his career. Manny is at 18.5%. Ryan Braun is at 19.4%. Youkilis is at 18.3%. Galarragga played a long time in Coors, so he doesn’t even count.
By my count your list was cut in half by math (using K/PA makes a ton more sense than K/AB).
I looked at every player from 1993-2008 with 1500 AB’s in the majors (my database isn’t updated through 2009 yet) and a k rate (k/pa) of 22% or higher. First off, only 57 of 573 players fit that bill. So its pretty rare to get that many at bats with a K rate that high. Of those 57, only Mo Vaughn had a BABIP of .340 or higher. Only 10 of them were able to be at .325 or higher. That is 17%. So really, the odds just aren’t good that he is going to be able to post a BABIP of .340, much less .325 in a single season much less over a long haul.
by dougdirt on Dec 26, 2025 6:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're
looking at the wrong numbers. K% is a percentage of plate appearances, not at-bats.
by slamcactus on Dec 26, 2025 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was using...
Fangraphs’ K% numbers, all of which are different from yours. Maybe they use ABs and I was unaware. Either way, it’s a baseline of players with K%‘s in the same range as Alvarez’s, and remember, it was his first season.
Saying Galaragga “doesn’t count” because you first heard his name as a Rockie is just lazy analysis. First, fewer than 30% of Galarraga’s PAs came while he was a Rockie, which means that slightly more than 15% of his career PAs came at Coors Field (accounting for the times he appeared there as a visitor).
The point is that Alvarez’s skill set is consistent with guys who can put up multiple high-BABIP seasons. Looking at numbers we can talk about rate of contact, but guys are on very different levels when it comes to making consistent hard contact, and to get a sense of that you need scouting reports (or you need to watch a guy play every day as a fan). By all accounts, Alvarez started making very, very hard contact consistently when he got to Double-A. According to your analysis, the skill set that Andres Galarraga, Mo Vaughn, Mark Reynolds, and Miguel Cabrera possess(ed) doesn’t exist. On that, you’re wrong. It’s rare, but Alvarez’s combination of skills doesn’t exactly come around every day, either.
Also, it was his first year out of college and he killed Double-A. His prospect status is as much projection as performance at this point, and the offensive projection is off the charts. This gets lost a lot when talking about college guys. Most of the other college hitters are still in A-ball trying the make the transition to a new playing schedule and a new, heavier bat.
by slamcactus on Dec 26, 2025 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"first"
there was going to be a “second” there about Galarraga’s BABIP in Coors, but I’m on a crappy connection and Fangraphs isn’t loading.
by slamcactus on Dec 26, 2025 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
K%
When I made my comment for Alvarez, I said 22% while using K/PA. Half of your list was not a comparable for that number because fangraphs uses K/AB for some strange reason.
As for Galarraga, his BABIP in his Colorado years was 22 points higher than it was in his non Colorado years. He was .328 for his career outside of the years he played in Colorado. Still a high rate for sure, but not quite the .340+ you listed him as.
My point isn’t that the skill doesn’t exist, but that its very rare and to count on someone to do it before they actually show they can do it at the highest level is just wishful thinking.
As for projection, that is what its all about. I suggest you run the numbers yourself for him with a reasonable BABIP in the .290-.310 range and see a possible outcome for where he likely falls. Because of the strikeouts it probably is short of .875 OPS unless you see him as a 35+ HR guy in his prime. I see him as more of a 30 HR guy.
by dougdirt on Dec 26, 2025 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Projection
I’m not running a projection. I’m saying that you’re incorrect that the skill set doesn’t exist, and what scouts say about Alvarez fits that kind of player. I know what Alvarez looks like on paper, given any range of BABIPs.
by slamcactus on Dec 28, 2025 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Same List Next Round
I don’t see anyone who needs to be added yet, even as a tester.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 12:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i went montero
bat too good to pass up here…Although he doesnt have a clear position and will most likely end up a DH, his hit tool imo is the best on this list and i believe he carries the least offensive risk here
by miraclemets on Dec 25, 2025 12:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Montero and Posey are on there....
Carlos Santana has to be there too.
by Alex Trebek on Dec 25, 2025 1:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
he is the last one in the top tier of prospects
by sjkqw on Dec 25, 2025 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He'll be On Next Round
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dom brown
belongs in the top tier as well
by Wheelhouse on Dec 25, 2025 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matusz for me
I think he’s going to be an ace or a good #2, and soon.
by Conjunction on Dec 25, 2025 1:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Posey
I love Montero’s bat potential, but I think Posey will be a very, very good bat as well and his positional value wins it for me.
by toonsterwu on Dec 25, 2025 1:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ve got Stanton first, but then Posey, and he gets the nod over Montero (among others) for this exact reason: he’s an excellent bat at a premium position.
by PhillyFriar on Dec 25, 2025 2:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
matusz
ready now. going to be an ace. enough said.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Dec 25, 2025 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about ace...
I think one person from somewhere like BA or BP said he is a cross between Mulder and Zito, but I don’t want to say ace yet. The only pitcher in the minors I would even come close to calling that is Strasburg.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not
There are plenty of pitching prospects with ace stuff. Although Strasburg’s stuff is otherworldly, he’s not the only one with ace potential.
by Conjunction on Dec 25, 2025 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't really project to be an ace...
to be an ace you have to do things that are not only about your stuff. An ace is someone who not only pitches really good, but someone who will do the best in big situations or even someone who will carry the pitching staff. In my opinion, being an ace is not all about stuff. I think there are very few in the majors right now. Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, Roy Hallday, Cliff Lee, and King Felix. There are some others who could be but those are the only that I feel have proved to be true “aces”.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Greinke?
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot Greinke...
but he hasn’t had the chance to really pitch in those big games yet. Verlander is on the line for me. He has really good stuff.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you cant be an ace without pitching in 'big games'?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 25, 2025 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh...and where are lincecum's big games? Felix? Halladay?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 25, 2025 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Big games...
can be considered snapping teams losing streaks or beating really good teams. Felix absoslutely killed the Red Sox every time I watched him last year, Timmy carried the Giants to a pretty good record, and Halladay pitches well against everyone. you don’t have to pitch in big games if you carry a good team or are just one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball either. Also, I never said Greinke wasn’t an ace, I think he is, but I would really like to see him given a chance to pitch in big games to see if he is that type of pitcher,
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Under that logic
There’s no possible way you can call Strasburg an ace. If anything, he’s proven less than any other top prospect. He’s getting voted in purely on stuff.
by Conjunction on Dec 25, 2025 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not calling him an ace...
I said he is the only one who I would even come close to calling that. That is based on his stuff which could be better than any pitchers. He has the best chance of anyone in the minors to become an ace.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not Really
He was dominant in the AFL. Yeah, I know it’s only 19 IP but I’m just disagreeing with you saying that his votes are based purely on stuff.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 25, 2025 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, injuries and decline nonwithstanding...
….how were Mulder and Zito not aces?
by James F on Dec 25, 2025 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Barry Zito...
was never an ace in my opinion. He was overrated for a while and the Giants have learned that. He used to be a pretty good number 2, but never an ace. Mulder wasn’t an ace either.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mulder was top 10 in the AL in FIP for three years running...
…two of which Zito made the list as well. Zito certainly didn’t age well, and Mulder’s arm fell off. But I’m really unclear as to what Mulder needed to do better other than stay healthy.
by James F on Dec 25, 2025 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stanton
I understand the risk, but even considering that, the upside gets him the third spot for me. Made serious gains in controlling the strike zone from Low-A to High-A last year, ripping apart the FSL at Age 19 in the process. I’ll cut him slack for The Double-A results given his age, and given that the Marlins were overaggressive with him and Davidson this year.
And aside from the bat, he’s got the athleticism and tools to be an excellent outfielder, plus all the intangibles (you always hear about his work ethic) to think he’s going to fix his issues.
by PhillyFriar on Dec 25, 2025 2:04 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
…and by “Davidson,” I of course mean “Dominguez.” Apparently I can’t keep these prep third basemen straight.
by PhillyFriar on Dec 25, 2025 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wake me up
when I can vote for Carlos Santana.
by Galt on Dec 25, 2025 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Santana
should be on after top 5 or 6
by byronlhsdrmr on Dec 25, 2025 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matusz or Posey
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Dec 25, 2025 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
don't we usually wait til 200 votes?
Posey still has the lead too… if he can increase it another 3% over Montero, than we don’t need a run-off
by daveh33 on Dec 25, 2025 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Still pretty far off. I knew this one would be tough.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
After the first two spots...
you can make an argument for anyone on the poll.
by joegonzo on Dec 25, 2025 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Look at the voting. That’s why I saw no need for testers just yet. Since there’s a distinguished 2nd tier (after stras/heyward) which goes something like the guys on the list, Santana, Brown.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Patience
We usually had no trouble geting to or near 200 votes fairly quickly in the last year’s rookies poll and I would think we would do at least as well in this one. This was a very hard call for me, I went Feliz in part because of the really nice showing in the majors, but there are good arguments for most of these guys. Probably I would have voted Posey if I hadn’t voted for Feliz.
by Dalman on Dec 25, 2025 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Posey with a 5% [8 vote] lead over Montero with 160 in
by daveh33 on Dec 25, 2025 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll Let It Go To....10 tonight?
Guessing by then many people will be at the computer and checked the site.
Santana and Brown will be added.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Its funny
how badly Bumgarner sticks out on this list.
In a bad way. I didnt used to feel that way, either.
by alskor on Dec 25, 2025 5:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
-1
Freaking preposterous suggestion to me. The shit he’s done by the age of 20 - guts and command well beyond his years. I’m in the minority but, I dont see matusz as a better pitching talent than him.
Still went with Neftali Feliz though. I think If you lined up Strasburg and Feliz and watched them pitch you;d be seeing 2 guys with top ace stuff - 1a and 1b
…and btw, Aroldis Chapman is clearly the 3rd best pitching prospect right now. Then Bumgarner for me.
by casejud on Dec 25, 2025 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sold on Chapman
He sat at 93-96 during his workout, not the Strasburg-esque velocity we’d been led to believe he had. And he’s struggled against competition in the Cuban league, showing a real lack of command.
by Conjunction on Dec 25, 2025 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was under the impression that he didn't air it all out
And he doesn’t sit at a 100, he touches it on occasion. It’s still premier velocity for a LHP and he is an exceedingly good prospect.
by jar75 on Dec 25, 2025 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he wasn't bringing it full throttle charlie's angels 2, from what I heard.
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by Frederick0220 on Dec 26, 2025 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Id advise you...
…to take the simple step of going to you tube and LOKING at him. It really beats the speculating. He looks a LOT like Randy Johnson reallky - meaning he has AWESOME potential. he struggled a TAD - yeah - well he 21 and learning and they didnt hesitate to put him on the mound in the WBC.
Its just a word description I know, and some people are more into accurace than others but I would say he shows “inconsistent” command rather then a “lack of command”. Really a lot like RJ at the same age. Watch the clips of him and tell me if you don’t find them similar- along with thier rare ability to dominate.
Chapman, Feliz, and Strasburg are all awesome arms- wow
by casejud on Dec 26, 2025 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I tabbed Chapman's ceiling as being RJ, too.
Long, athletic, with high-90s velo.
Everyone should check out Randy Johnson’s early career stats, also.
It’s funny how many guys he walked.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 26, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
feliz
i could be wrong (but dont think i am), but doesnt Strats have like 3 plus pitches wheras Feliz just has 1?
by miraclemets on Dec 25, 2025 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Feliz has 2
And his changeup has a lot of promise.
by Conjunction on Dec 26, 2025 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Up to 181, 20/19/18 Posey/Stanton/Montero
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Runoff?
Vote here if you think it’s time for a runoff. I’m going out to dinner (mmmm…Chinese food on Christmas) and I’ll make a decision when I return.
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by cwhitman412 on Dec 25, 2025 6:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If it's within 3%
I’d say go to a runoff. Don’t ask me where I picked that 3% from, though. That said, set a time limit on runoffs, irrespective of the fact that it’s the weekend. Have it done by say, sometime afternoon tomorrow so that we can move on.
by toonsterwu on Dec 25, 2025 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or this...
Start the runoff with Posey, Stanton, and Montero to figure out spots 3-5, instead of just spot #3. At the same time, start the poll for #6, then we can have the runoff and keep moving forward at a good pace.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Dec 25, 2025 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bad idea
because what if everyone who voted for Posey wants to vote for someone not in here?
by dougdirt on Dec 25, 2025 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you can call it at 3%, closer is a runoff
When it was a 2 point difference in the last year’s rookies poll I generally tried to wait it out, if it went down to 1% difference or stuck at 2% I called a runoff, at 3% or more I called it for whoever had the lead. There will be plenty of runoffs without going out looking for them.
by Dalman on Dec 25, 2025 7:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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