Prospect Retro: Howie Kendrick

by John Sickels on Sep 3, 2025 12:54 PM EDT

Howie Kendrick was drafted by the Angels in the 10th round in 2002, out of St. John's River Community College in Florida. His pro debut was a success: .318/.368/.408 in the Arizona Rookie League, with 12 steals. He drew just seven walks, but fanned only 11 times in 157 at-bats. I didn't rate many short-season players back then, but a similar player now would get something like a "Grade C with higher potential" rating due to the very low strikeout rate.

Kendrick moved up to the Pioneer League in 2003, hitting .368/.434/.517 for Provo. He got attention from scouts for his excellent contact hitting skills, though doubts were raised abou this defense. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004 book, writing that I wasn't sure where he'd fit glove-wise, but that the bat looked good.

Moved up to Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2004, Kendrick hit .367/.398/.578, which are terrific numbers anywhere but especially in the Midwest League, not an easy place to hit. HIs walk rate remained quite low, but he didn't strike out much and the production was impossible to ignore. He also improved defensively. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2005 book, rating him as an excellent prospect.

Kendrick began 2005 with Rancho Cucamonga in the California League, hitting .384/.421/.638. Promoted to Double-A at midseason, he continued ripping the ball without missing a beat at a .342/.382/.579 clip. He stole 25 bases on the season, and while he walked just 20 times, he also struck out just 62 times in 469 at-bats while hitting 43 doubles and 19 homers. About the only negative was some problems turning the double play. I gave him a Grade A-, rating him as a future star and ranking him the number 10 hittting prospect in baseball.

He followed that up by hitting .369/.408/.631 in 69 games of Triple-A in 2006, then .285/.314/.416 in the majors. He hit .322/.347/.450 in 2007 with the Angels, then .308/.334/.428 this year. He's a .306/.333/.432 hitter overall in the majors.

Kendrick hardly ever walks, but his strikeout rate is low and he has an unusual ability to make hard contact even on pitches most hitters shouldn't swing at. The biggest difficulty he faces is staying healthy, which is becoming a persistent problem. If he can avoid major health issues, Kendrick will contend for batting titles in the coming years. But that's a big IF.

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Power

Why does Kendrick, who looked like a 20-25 HR hitter in the minors, have such dramatically lower power numbers in the majors? Is this because of his minor league parks or has his power actually decreased?

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by OldProspects on Sep 3, 2025 3:47 PM EDT 0 recs

Kendrick's power potential...

I always believed Kendrick to have 15-18 hr power production. I believe in a career year he could get to or perhaps even surpass 20-25 hr. I think you might have overestimated his ability to hit for power. Hitting for contact is what he has always done in the minors and continued to do in the majors. Injuries have obviously taken a toll on him, but I believe there is still a lot of time and several chances he will have to prove to be an everyday player and potential all star.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Sep 3, 2025 3:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well

In 2005, his last full year in the minor leagues, he hit 19 homers, 43 doubles and 8 triples in 489 ABs. In 2006, at age 22 in AAA, he hit 13 HRs, 25 doubles, and 6 triples in 290 ABs. Over his entire minor league career, his isolated power was .211, and that rose significantly in his last two years in the minors. You’re probably right that 20-25 homers consistently was not a reasonable expectation, but I think he did show much more power potential than he has thus far displayed in the majors.

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by OldProspects on Sep 3, 2025 4:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

I wonder

how much of it Soscia/Angels approach related.

He doesnt look at all like he will hit for power anymore to me… and I was his biggest fan in the minors…Thought he would consistently compete for batting titles with a good amount of doubles and HRs in the teens every year… you know… like Pedroia lol… who I though wouldnt hit for power or steal bases… so there ya go…

by alskor on Sep 3, 2025 4:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

I’m not sure he was going to be a consistent 20+ HR type of guy, more the type who would hit tons of doubles and push past 20 a couple of times in his peak years.

But if you’re asking if his power isn’t playing up to its potential, it’s not. And injuries might have something to do with it, but I personally think it has more to do with his plate approach. He’s pretty much exactly the player that you could’ve expected him to be, not more and not less. On the bright side, that’s a pretty good player.

by mrkupe on Sep 3, 2025 4:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Howie

He reminds me of a righty Wade Boggs, high avg little power.

by pst2 on Sep 3, 2025 4:36 PM EDT 0 recs

I think

youre seriously, seriously underrating Wade Boggs. I realize youre not saying he’d be Wade Boggs, but even thinking he could be a poor man’s Boggs is huge praise… take another look at Boggs career…

by alskor on Sep 3, 2025 4:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

right

a poor man’s Boggs. Boggs was HOF-worthy I have no doubt that Kendrick is not.

by pst2 on Sep 3, 2025 5:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

edit

meant to read “Kendrick is not HOF worthy…”

by pst2 on Sep 3, 2025 5:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wade Boggs never had a single season

in which he did not compile more walks than Kendrick has drawn in his entire career. Kendrick’s isoOBP is .027, and almost 1/4 of his tiny number of career walks have been intentional.

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by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2025 5:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Boggs

yeah, the Boggs comp is a very bad one. Boggs was a walk MACHINE.

Someone else suggested Placido Polanco. I think more along the lines of Polanco / Michael Young / Cano / Kinsler / Pedroia is more apt.

by fourthandeye on Sep 3, 2025 10:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

I immediately thought of the poster boy for empty batting averages

George Sisler:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sislege01.shtml

Pretty comparable hitters, really.

Its important to not lose sight of the fact that as a 2B Kendrick would still have a good amount of value as a .290/.330/.450 hitter… he would just be falling short of the high expectations many(including myself) had for him…

by alskor on Sep 4, 2025 12:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

Again, remember that his peripherals suggest

that a .290 average will lead to a line more like .290/.315/.420.

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by PaulThomas on Sep 4, 2025 1:15 AM EDT up 0 recs

I meant down the line...

assuming improvement from him…

by alskor on Sep 4, 2025 1:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

He might start slugging more

I don’t see any reason at all to assume that he will start walking more, other than the fact that it’s almost impossible to walk LESS. Particularly considering that it’s the Angels…

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by PaulThomas on Sep 5, 2025 4:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well

Players tend to become more patient as they age. Its an old player’s skill. Its a virtual lock he will learn to walk more to some degree and the numbers I put above dont exactly show a patient hitter…

by alskor on Sep 5, 2025 1:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Garret Anderson's career walk rate is lower than the (abysmal) rate he showed in his first season

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by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2025 4:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

That's a reasonable, conservative projection for him

But there’s also a good chance that he continues to hit in the .310-.320 range, which would give him stats closer to a .310/.335/.440, which isn’t bad at all for a second baseman. You’re right, though, that if Kendrick wants to be better than simply an average 2B, he’s either got to begin taking walks (unlikely) or hit for more power. Considering he’s been injured for significant parts of both of the last two years, it’s possible that if he ever stays healthy, he might become a significantly stronger player

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by OldProspects on Sep 4, 2025 10:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

Look up "empty batting average" in the dictionary

and there’s a picture of Howie Kendrick next to the entry. His secondary average for his career is .153.

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by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2025 5:31 PM EDT 0 recs

In the picture....

…. he is holding hands with Ryan Sweeney.

by DeJay on Sep 4, 2025 6:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

That

could explain the lack of power then, no?

/kidding

by alskor on Sep 4, 2025 11:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

You won't get any argument from me, I think Ryan Sweeney is a 4th outfielder.

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by PaulThomas on Sep 5, 2025 4:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

Does R. Sweeney know...

That he can hit it to right field?

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by doublestix on Sep 5, 2025 4:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

The Cano effect

will Kendrick’s lack of patience mean that pitchers will learn to never throw him a strike?

by number_twentyone on Sep 3, 2025 7:02 PM EDT 0 recs

I dont really think that is Cano's problem

And it certainly has never hampered another former Yankee 2B, Alfronso Soriano. Soriano will swing at every single curve or slider low and away and hit nothing but air. He’s done this for years. Yet, he still slaughters fastballs and outside of against the Red Sox and in the 03 World Series its never really hurt him.

Cano’s problem IMHO, was that he was a product of high BABIPs. He was never a patient hitter but for his first two seasons he maintained a high AVG that didnt fit with his other components… and people took this to mean he had some skill for hitting .330. In retrospect it appears that was luck driven although he does look like a good AVG hitter - something like .290-.300ish. The Rod Carew stuff was hilarious. Cano, like Kendrick, is also a decent player at 2B desptite his faults and his defense has been damn good this season. I would take Kendrick over him in a second, though.

by alskor on Sep 4, 2025 1:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

Kendrick in a second?

Cano has the much better major league track record overall. The main difference between the two players is a left-handed bat and some power vs. baserunning.

It’s hard to say whether Cano’s batting average was all BABIP - some players have good swings, and Cano isn’t slow, he’s just bad at stealing bases. It’s harder to see the BABIP as a fluke if he maintains it over a larger sample size. Pedroia is another 2B that has a moderately high BABIP.

I absolutely disagree that Cano’s problem this year, and in the first half of 2007, wasn’t his inherent aggressiveness. Pitchers were giving him absolutely nothing over the plate, and that’s why he was hitting weak grounders and popups.

by number_twentyone on Sep 4, 2025 3:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Kendrick seems to really remind me of Placido Polanco

with some speed. He makes good contact, but only has doubles power and will never take a lot of walks. He’s a valuable type guy for having, especially in the 2 spot in the order, but he’s not really a superstar type hitter either.

by grozzy on Sep 3, 2025 10:20 PM EDT 0 recs