Your missing the point

It is not just his Slider, he was on a very strict pitch count and made an effort to just get ground ball outs.

You bring up Felix, yet hes 20 years old in A ball for 17 starts and yes he struck out 106 guys in 82 ip, but do you realize that if you divide 82 by 17 you get 4.8 ip per start.

I think youre still missing my point - when we hear this about guys being efficient with pitches and pitching to contact its almost always b/s. There is no such thing. Pitching to contact and conserving pitches - on a year scale - are just excuses for not striking out many guys. I dont buy it. People who are high on a prospect who underperformed in K’s always cite these same things as their excuses. I used to believe them, but Ive yet to see a guy turn it around - other than Nick Blackburn… which I still dont understand that freak.

Secondly, even if this is what Porcello is doing this year there is every reason to believe that is how he will continue to pitch this way in the future. Thus, the strikeouts remain a concern.

More troubling is find me a guy with that low a K rate who turned it around and became a front line starting pitcher. Lots of young Ace pitchers go on pitch counts and are coached to conserve their pitches but their K rates arent as bad as Porcello’s. Again, though, Im not arguing Porcello is garbage or anything - and I DO expect his K rate to improve signficantly. BUT, where he is at and the way he pitches I find it very unlikely that he will be able to improve his K rate to a level that will merit the hype around him. He’s striking out 5 per 9 with some restrictions. Is it reasonable to think he could strike out 7.5 per 9 with some development and without an emphasis on low pitch counts? Sure. 8? Maybe. That STILL wouldnt profile him as a future Ace.

And please dont put Feliz in the same sentence as Felix, who as far as prospects is better then just about anyone else we have seen in a long time, especially considering how young he was, he was a big leaguer while these other guys are pitching in A ball.

Again, that was exactly my point. Feliz is all fastball - I think he’s a good bit overrated. Yet, with just a fastball he’s striking out 16 and 11.63 and 9.33 guys per 9 innings. So what’s Porcello’s deal that he cant strike out that many guys without his slider? Again, I believe when we hear about conserving pitch counts its almost always balogna.

There is no reason you would want a top pitching prospect to NOT work at striking out hitters. The very idea is silly. Strikeouts are the optimal outcome of the pitcher-batter confrontation. Guys who pitch to contact and allow contact in the minors get hammered when they reach MLB - hell, when they reach the higher minors even. What they wanted him to do was to strike out guys using less pitches - and he didnt do it very well. THAT is my issue. THAT is why he’s a B-

No, the bottom line is that guys with plus or plus-plus fastballs and little else have and will always blow away guys in A-ball, and that guys with a decent fastball as well as good secondary stuff won’t see the dip the one trick ponies will as they advance.

My point was Porcello doesnt have the plus fastball of a future Ace.

Way to blow an arguement out of proportion. I don’t recall anyone here claiming that he’ll nearly DOUBLE his K totals once they cut him loose. No one has likened him to be some blazing hurler for the ages either. He doesn’t have a Bumgarner fastball, but he definitely has one that is good enough to be a very effective pitcher. I think it’s very reasonable to say he has the ability to up his K rate up into the 6.5 – 7.5 per 9 range. As a point of reference, that’s where Greg Maddux could be found during most of his prime.

So you agree with me. I think that is exactly what people are claiming and that’s what I was refuting. I said I still expect him to be a front of the rotation starter.

Interesting. I’ve seen him pitch in real life. How about you?

Objection! Relevance?

I was arguing against the general perception of Porcello as a flamethrowing strikeout pitching Beckett clone. I believe that is a popular notion, and I believe many harbor illusions of this happening despite the facts, the guys’s stuff and what we’ve seen of him. I dont need to see him pitch to counter that. In fact, I would dare say that seeing him pitch once and formulating an opinion based on a SSS of one or three appearances would do more harm than good. He could have a great day or a terrible day and I would be drawing a conclusion from insufficient evidence. Im better off sticking to the numbers, frankly.

Id like to point out yet again how I find it slightly offensive when people pull the “have you seen him in real life?” card. It is simply not relevant. You dont need to see a guy in real life to discuss his merits as a prospect. If you did, 95% of this site would be bulls***.

1- The fact they think lesser of him as a prospect because he may turn out like Brandon Webb rather than Josh Beckett. Thats like hoping for a Ferrarri and getting a Bentley..and being disapointed.

I guess we’re not far apart at all, because this is also my impression of him. Webbish upside.. maybe poor man’s Webb is more appropriate. Of course, I think that because I doubt the K’s will ever reach Webb levels.

2- The idea that he is never going to be a strikout pitcher. In my opinion, hes going to be Roy Halladay like but with more strikeouts. Add in the curveball and get rid of the pitch count and i see those a logical reasons for his strikeout number to increase, maybe not to the Josh Beckett level but high enough to where it isnt an issue for some.

He has a long way to go to get his K’s up to that point. A loooong way. I do expect them to increase significantly, though. I dont think you realize how bad his K numbers were this year…

As for “Halladay like but with more strikeouts” - Come on… I could buy Roy Halladay but with slightly lesser periphs, maybe. I still see no reason his repertoire will lead to that many strikeouts. He’s all two seamer from what i understand, and its not a great swing and miss pitch. As for this curve or slider… well, we’ve got a long way to go before we can tell if he could use it as an outpitch at the MLB level. For instance, can he throw it for strikes? That’s really more B+ than A- to me.

And lastly, i said it once and i will say it again. Other than the strikeouts, give me a reason why he is not at least an A- ?

That’s like saying “Other than the hits, give me a reason why this guy is not a good hitter?” Strikeouts correlate best to future MLB success.

“B+” is a very good grade! He’s doing everything else well, yes (60something% GB, Low HR rate, Decent BB rate, 116 Hits in 125 IP) - BUT I dont see how a guy who hasnt pitched above A ball and who posted a 5.18 K/9 can be an “A-.” The stuff, scouting and all the other reasons youve cited are what makes him a B+ - and that’s still an elite prospect. He was a B+ last year and John wrote this:

(I am hesitant to give out a Grade A- or Grade A without seeing some pro numbers first. This grade should not be interpreted as a negative comment on Porcello).

His pro numbers raised some question marks and his grade is still based on pretty much just what we knew of him last year. For any questions he answered (GB, BB rate, other periphs), he raised as many in other areas (K’s and stuff - not a negative neccessarily, but since he didnt throw X pitch we dont know anything more about it than we did then). I dont see what he has done this year as justifying a raise in grade from B+ to A-… I fully expect him to get a “B+.”

Carlos Zambrano as an 18 year old in A ball struck out 98 batters in 153 ip, Which is 5.76 per 9.

He increased that to 6.8 as a 19 year old in AA/AAA

and then to 9.2 as a 20 year old in AAA

His first full season as a starter in MLB he posted a 7.07 k/9 getting it up to 8.8 per 9 in 2006.