Top 20 Mets PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Jul 20, 2025 4:21 PM EDT in News

Top 20 PRE-SEASON Mets Prospects in Review

This is the PRE-SEASON list. That means it was generated BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED and that the grades were PRE-SEASON. Anyone complaining about the grades based on 2006 performance will be smacked up the side of the head with a Rob Stratton autographed bat..

1) Lastings Milledge, OF, Grade A-
.289/.408/.481 with 11 steals in 65 games for Triple-A Norfolk, .233/.287/.419 for the Mets in 24 games. Impressive power/speed potential but still working on his strike zone judgment. It was much better this year in Triple-A but major league pitchers exploited him.

2) Mike Pelfrey, RHP, A-
Combined 2.45 ERA with 103/28 K/BB in 16 starts between Class A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton. 2-0 in his first two major league starts. Doing just fine.

3) Anderson Hernandez, SS, C+
Hitting .246/.288/.293 with 12 steals for Norfolk. 6-for-41 (.146) for the Mets. Lack of any power is the major problem here.

4) Brian Bannister, RHP, C+
2-0, 2.89 in five starts for the Mets. Rehabbing from a hamstring strain.

5) Carlos Gomez, OF, C+
Hitting .261/.325/.390 with 20 steals for Binghamton. Good speed and tools, not much power, poor plate discipline.

6) Emmanuel Garcia, SS, C+
Hitting .317/.404/.390 in 20 games for Kingsport in the Appy League. Small sample but a good start.

7) Brett Harper, 1B, C+
Hit .338 in 19 games for Binghamton before shoulder injury. Status unclear.

8) Fernando Martinez, OF, C+
Hit .333/.393/.504 in 32 games for Class A Hagerstown before hurting his knee. Returned to action last night and should be OK in the long run. Pre-injury numbers are certainly good.

9) Robert Parnell, RHP, C+
3.92 ERA with 64/27 K/BB in 67 innings for Hagerstown. Doing OK, not spectacular but not terrible.

10) Phil Humber, RHP, C
Recovering from Tommy John surgery, is 2-1, 3.12 in five starts for St. Lucie. Looks good so far, raise his grade back to B- for now and then higher if this continues.

11) Alay Soler, RHP, C
2-3, 6.00 in eight starts for the Mets, with control problems. Combined 3-0, 1.45 in nine starts between St. Lucie and Binghamton in the minors, 55/12 K/BB in 50 innings. His command was good in the minors.

12) Jeff Keppinger, 2B, C
Hitting .300/.353/.359 for Norfolk, was traded to the Kansas City Royals yesterday. Can hit for average and make contact, lacks power.

13) Mike Carp, 1B, C
Hitting .276/.380/.402 for St. Lucie. 19 doubles but just 7 homers resulting in a weak SLG. Good walk rate helps his OBP however.

14) Ryan Coultas, SS, C
Hitting .126/.169/.135 in 40 games for St. Lucie. UGH.

15) Matthew Durkin, RHP, C
Just 5 innings in the Gulf Coast Rookie League so far, with 7 strikeouts and 7 walks. Health and control are major issues.

16) German Marte, RHP, C
2.94 ERA in 52 innings for Hagerstown, 53/18 K/BB. Relief sleeper to watch.

17) Shawn Bowman, 3B, C
Hitting .252/.311/.387 for St. Lucie. I'm glad I never really got on the Bowman bandwagon.

18) Nick Evans, 3B, C
Hitting .263/.326/.463 with 15 homers for Hagerstown. Showing good power, but a first baseman now, which reduces his potential future value.

19) Jon Niese, LHP, C
9-6, 3.51 in 19 starts for Hagerstown, 106/50 K/BB in 97 innings. A personal favorite. If he can improve his command a bit more, he can break through next year in a big way. Watch him.

20) Evan MacLane, LHP, C
Combined 10-6, 3.75 in 20 starts between Binghamton and Norfolk. Finesse lefty type who might be a Quadruple-A guy.

Comment:
Milledge and Pelfrey are a nice combo at the top. Humber can rejoin them soon if his elbow holds up, and Fernando Martinez could be the best of all if his knee is OK. After that it thins out quickly. There are some guys with tools like Carlos Gomez, but most of them are held back by a weak approach at the plate. Watch sleeper lefty Jon Niese next year for major improvement. He is a projectable lefty that I really like intuitively.

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Comments

Jesus Flores

Would he be considered a Top 5 prospect in this system? How about Deolis Guerra?

by Emad on Jul 20, 2025 4:29 PM EDT 0 recs

I'd say no for Flores

The top 6 prospects in this system have to be Milledge, Pelfrey, Martinez, Humber, Guerra, and Niese. Flores likely goes in the 7-10 range.

by jeck on Jul 20, 2025 5:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

hmm

Maybe I'm confusing names, but I think Callis recently said Guerra is a top 100 for him.

by spectfreak on Jul 20, 2025 5:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

I can believe that

I don't know if I'd put Guerra that high myself (yet), but Callis likes high ceilings. When you've got a pitcher with a sub 3.00 ERA in a full season league when he should be a high school junior, that's a pretty huge upside.

by jeck on Jul 20, 2025 5:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

Actually, it was John Manuel

John Manuel answered a cuople questions yesterday on the Mets. And his ranking isn't much different from yours. In answer to one question he said:

"Guerra's last start was his best, he's had a very good year for his age and probably is a Top 100 caliber guy."

In another he said:

"Q: Matt from Brooklyn Ny asks:
Now that pelfreys up, who is the Mets' top 5 prospects
A:John Manuel:
1. Milledge. 2. F. Martinez. 3. Guerra. 4. Humber. 5. Niese. I might need to move Humber up there. We have had very positive reports on him in the FSL since his return from TJ, 90-94, plus curve at times, plus change at times."

So if he moves Humber up one, he's got the same as you do. And I'd guess Guerra may need to continue to perform to actually end up on the top 100. He sounds borderline top 100 to me now.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/261983.html

by acerimusdux on Jul 20, 2025 6:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gomez

I'd rank Gomez ahead of Niese. While his overall numbers look bad, he's really turned it on since he came off the DL in late June and was moved out of the leadoff spot; he says he doesn't like batting leadoff, despite the fact that he's even faster than Reyes. He's raised his average 50 points in the last month. And he's pretty close to the Majors. Look for a big time breakout in the next month and a half, it looks like he's finally put his tools together (and the tools are supposed to be even better than Milledge's, arm is compared to Mondesi).

by MontrealMets on Jul 20, 2025 5:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

gomez

i agree, gomez is suddenly getting very interesting. he looked pretty bad early on, and maybe he'll just go back to looking pretty bad pretty soon, but if he can actually pull himself together and hit, he suddenly becomes a 20-year-old with bulbous tools who's adjusted to AA already. he probably won't become daric barton overnight on the plate discipline front but i think at the very least he's gotta be pushing his way into the top 5 of a middle-of-the-pack farm system.

by wily mo on Jul 21, 2025 2:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

although

i guess if we're still counting milledge and pelfrey i'd also go milledge / pelfrey / fernando / humber, so you're looking at a choice between gomez and guerra, and it's hard to take gomez there when his approach is probably still pretty questionable. so say top 6.

by wily mo on Jul 21, 2025 2:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

Guerra has potential to be more than Gomez, but if the recent improvement is for real - and it might be, given that he was rushed and has slowly gotten better as the season progressed, to break out big time of late - then it's hard to take any low-A pitching prospect over a lightning fast potential gold glover in the upper minors who is performing pretty well. If he can keep hitting doubles and homers the way he has over the last month (not a ton, but enough) then I pick him. If he goes back to his early season form, not a chance. I guess right now it's a tie for me, winner dependent on how Gomez performs over the next month. If he continues to hit like he has been, I put him at 5. Pitching prospects are just too risky, particularly 17 year old ones.

by MontrealMets on Jul 21, 2025 2:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Flores

I'd say Flores and Guerra are probably the two John maybe "missed" in his pre-season ranking.

I read (from a probably reliable source) that Flores was playing with a fractured thumb last season, so maybe that explains the off year.

I'd guess that, once Milledge and Pelfrey no longer qualify, Flores, Mike Carp and Carlos Gomez would be the most likely candidates for the #5 spot in the system.

And maybe John will slip Francisco Pena into next years top 20, seeing as how much success the Mets have had with their Latin talent.

by acerimusdux on Jul 20, 2025 6:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Flores,,,,

Flores has shown some impressive power in a good Pitchers league (28 doubles with the 13 HR's), but his K/BB ratio is pretty bad. He's got 93 K's in 316 AB's after tonight, with 19 BB's....

A couple of weeks ago I would've said he merited a AA call-up at some point in the season, but it's probably just as well that he stay in St. Lucie and work with Gary Carter the rest of the season...

by MetfanBren on Jul 21, 2025 10:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Niese

What does he throw and how hard? What is his ceiling?

by rdf8585 on Jul 20, 2025 4:34 PM EDT 0 recs

Good Article today from BA

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/261986.html

They covered alot of these guys in their Daily Dish today.

They have Niese throwing 89-91, with a good change and curve. I think also he has some good projection though.

Also info there on Humber, Guerra, and Martinez.

Also, in a chat yesterday:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/261983.html

John Manuel ranks Matinez, Guerra, Humber, Niese after Milledge and Pelfrey in the Mets system.

by acerimusdux on Jul 20, 2025 5:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Niese and Carp

Huge fan of Niese. If he gets his control, he could be filthy. Kid's still filling out a bit as well.

On a side note, I also like Carp. SlG numbers are low, but I think as he fills out a bit, those will improve. Young for the level. Ready for double A next year at age 21.

by toonsterwu on Jul 20, 2025 10:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Baseball Notebook

Has Carp as a Top 10 prospect (in all of baseball): a 35-homer hitting 1B.

by elephunkadelic on Jul 20, 2025 11:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Carp #10

Even the biggest Mets homers couldn't swallow that one when it came out. He's got alot of potential, but if you're grading on tools, there are tons of guys ahead of him, and if you're grading on performance, he hasn't done much. Just saying that it was a pretty ridiculous ranking, and even if he turns into the best prospect in baseball it still didn't make sense at the time, doesn't make any more sense now.

by MontrealMets on Jul 21, 2025 2:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Mike Pelfrey=Michael Jordan

by IanCobb on Jul 20, 2025 5:20 PM EDT 0 recs

I agree

...Michael Jordan the baseball player.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Jul 20, 2025 6:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

That was my initial thought

by limozeen on Jul 20, 2025 7:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Speaking of the Met farm...

Here's the box-score of the night. Brooklyn and Oneonta tied at one, headed to the 26th inning...

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2006_07_20_ oneasx_broasx_1

by MetfanBren on Jul 20, 2025 6:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Bannister

Should he be able to return to his early season form once he recovers (August or September and next year)? He's available in my league because of the hamstring issues-- was owned, but dropped.

by elephunkadelic on Jul 20, 2025 8:36 PM EDT 0 recs

Early season form?

I don't think you WANT him to return to his early season form. Check out his BB/K/IP...atrocious! The guy showed he had guts, worked out of jams well, but walked a ton of guys and went to 3-2 with a lot of others. He was extremely lucky.

He SHOULD be a solid major leaguer though, and will likely be in the rotation next year. Word is he's progressing well from the hammy problem, should be on rehab assignment soon, look for him to be back with the Mets in mid-August at the latest, though it's unclear what his role would be.

Basically, I'd decide whether to pick him up or not based on how you think El Duque and Pelfrey will be for the rest of the season. Personally, I think Duque will end up on the DL, if only to get him some rest, and Bannister will likely end up in the rotation at some point during the rest of this season. If you have faith that those two will stick in the rotation without a problem, then Bannister's role would likely be replacing John Maine as a long man in the pen, which wouldn't be particularly useful...though the Mets do come back a lot, and Oliver has picked up some vulture wins this year in the same role.

Hope that helps, I realize it's kind of non-commital.

by MontrealMets on Jul 20, 2025 8:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not worth owning

At best he'll be a decent #5 starter. But he's not likely going to be a good fantasy guy. He's going to be a low strikeout guy, and even if he gets his control together won't likely be a real low WHIP guy.

by acerimusdux on Jul 20, 2025 9:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Lester puts guys on base, too

I'm not saying Bannister is Lester, but don't you cut rookies some slack and show appreciation for bearing down with men on? That's worth something. Why isn't it possible he puts it together as far as keeping guys off base? He had good numbers in the minor leagues.

by elephunkadelic on Jul 20, 2025 10:14 PM EDT 0 recs

Rob Stratton baseball bat

Will he make contact?

by akk99 on Jul 21, 2025 12:52 PM EDT 0 recs

Well...

We're in for a world of hurt if he does...

by MontrealMets on Jul 21, 2025 2:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

milledge stock fallen..

ever since the "victory lap"

indicates a rather high daq (dumb ars quotient)

probably willing to trade him now.

by dryice on Jul 24, 2025 7:12 PM EDT 0 recs

Pelfrey & Jordan

Speaking of those two, did anyone else notice that Pelfrey was wearing a mouthpiece his last start? Haven't heard anything about it from the Mets, but my guess is that they were worried he could tip his pitches with the tongue thing. It's not a good habit to get into in general, let alone when facing major league hitters with tons of scouting reports...

by MetfanBren on Jul 25, 2025 7:05 PM EDT 0 recs