Pat Burrell and the 1998 Draft

by John Sickels on Jan 30, 2026 4:00 PM EST

Although often regarded as a disappointment given his status as the first player picked in 1998, Pat Burrell was an above-average player despite his limitations. Compare him to the other players drafted in the first round in 1998:

1) Burrell, 3B-1B, Phillies (University of Miami) 21.9 WAR
2) Mark Mulder, LHP, Athletics (Michigan State) 21.1 WAR
3) Corey Patterson, OF, Cubs (Georgia HS) 11.5 WAR
4) Jeff Austin, RHP, Royals (Stanford) -0.4 WAR
5) J.D. Drew, OF, Cardinals (St. Paul, Northern League) 47.6 WAR
6) Ryan Mills, LHP, Twins (Arizona State) BZZT
7) Austin Kearns, OF, Reds (Kentucky HS) 18.7 WAR
8) Felipe Lopez, SS, Blue Jays (Florida HS) 12.1 WAR
9) Sean Burroughs, 3B, Padres (California HS) 6.4 WAR
10) Carlos Pena, 1B, Rangers (Northeastern University) 19.9 WAR
11) Josh McKinley, SS, Expos (Pennsylvania HS) BZZT
12) Adam Everett, SS, Red Sox (South Carolina) 10.1 WAR
13) J.M. Gold, RHP, Brewers (New Jersey HS) BZZT
14) Jeff Weaver, RHP, Tigers (Fresno State) 23.2 WAR
15) Clint Johnston, LHP, Pirates (Vanderbilt) BZZT
16) Kip Wells, RHP, White Sox (Baylor) 11.8 WAR
17) Brad Lidge, RHP, Astros (Notre Dame) 11.6 WAR
18) Seth Etherton, RHP, Angels (USC) -0.4 WAR
19) Tony Torcato, 3B, Giants (California HS) -0.2 WAR
20) C.C. Sabathia, LHP, Indians (California HS) 57.0 WAR
21) Jason Tyner, OF, Mets (Texas A&M;) 2.1 WAR
22) Matt Thornton, LHP, Mariners (Grand Valley State) 9.5 WAR
23) Bubba Crosby, OF, Dodgers (Rice) -1.3 WAR
24) Andy Brown, OF, Yankees (Indiana HS) BZZT
25) Nate Bump, RHP, Giants (Penn State) -0.7 WAR
26) Rick Elder, OF, Orioles (Georgia HS) BZZT
27) Chip Ambres, OF, Marlins (Texas HS) -0.3 WAR
28) Matt Roney, RHP, Rockies (Oklahoma HS) -0.6 WAR
29) Arturo McDowell, OF, Giants (Mississippi HS) BZZT
30) Matt Burch, RHP, Royals (Virginia Commonwealth) BZZT

Among 1998 first-round picks, only J.D. Drew and C.C. Sabathia have been significantly more valuable than Burrell, according to WAR anyway. Mark Mulder, Carlos Pena, and Jeff Weaver are all in Burrell's neighborhood.

This doesn't look at the rest of the '98 draft class, but it does provide some perspective.

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Read More: Corey Patterson (LF - STL), J.D. Drew (RF - BOS), Pat Burrell (LF - SFG), Brad Lidge (P - WAS), Adam Everett (SS - CLE), Felipe Lopez (3B - TAM), Austin Kearns (LF - FLA), Carlos Pena (1B - TAM), Jason Tyner (LF - DET), Matt Thornton (P - CWS), Chip Ambres (LF - NYM), Kip Wells (P - ARI), Jeff Weaver (P - LOS), Mark Mulder (P - STL), Nate Bump (P - PHI), Sean Burroughs (3B - MIN), Tony Torcato (OF - SEA), Matt Roney (P - TOR), Bubba Crosby (CF - SEA), Seth Etherton (P - LOS), San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers

Comments

Phils Career

Phils fans were tough on him for years. He was more of a follower, & during the early years of his career he was regarded as part of the problem in Philadelphia along with fellow “non-winners” like Bobby Abreau & Mike Lieberthal, whose lackadaisical style & lack of leadership marked an unspectacular era of under achievement. But when the Phils overhauled their roster, Burrell was a top step guy who was always a presence in the clubhouse & on the field. And he was spectacularly streaky. For all the times he’d pop out with RISP, he would get hot & carry the team for long stretches when Howard or Utley were slumping. It was a shame for him to leave when he did after the championship year, but by that time he was a liability in the OF, & the Phils came out looking good, after the Rays big investment proved to be a bad choice. He earned his stripes in Philly, & as he matured his stock rose. So i agree with the analysis that he was quite a valuable player, although his early career, save one big season, was more or less considered a disappointment.

"Six of my best friends just walked into the booth . . .and they're all named Bud" -Harry Caray

by stevejeltz on Jan 30, 2026 4:50 PM EST reply actions

How can he be called a disappointment?

He had 292 Homers and retired with a career .832 OPS. He was a perennial .900ish OPS guy all the way thru his age 31 Season.

What exactly would be reasonable expectations for a career?

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Jan 30, 2026 4:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I agree.

Burrell had a solid career, and put up completely respectable numbers even for a first overall pick. He obviously didn’t put up superstar statlines every season, but he was more than serviceable. If you want a real #1 overall pick bust, look no further than Matt Bush.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Jan 30, 2026 5:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Am with you

If people are peeved that Pat Burrell didn’t precisely replicate Jeff Bagwell (a 1st ballot Hall of Famer in any other era probably) then their standards border on absurd. Very, very good hitter.

by Matt0330 on Jan 31, 2026 9:24 AM EST up reply actions

Aaron is right though

Burrell was consistently seen as a disappointment in Philly from the time he made his MLB debut. Philly fans had high expectations, but those expectations were also not met.

In no way am I saying Burrell was a disappointment. Philly fans were clearly harsh on the guy mainly due to the expectations placed on him very early in his career.

by guru4u on Jan 31, 2026 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

Actually, I think Philly wanted the next Mike Schmidt...

which also borders on the absurd. Rolen was treated similarly, from an outsider’s perspective.

by dbreer23 on Jan 31, 2026 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

True to both responses, yes

I’m not sure how to word this either, but I believe that Pat had an extremely healthy (think legendary) ‘social life’ outside of baseball while in Philadelphia. It’s probably not a stretch to surmise that some of the more myopic local fans likely held this against him as he was probably seen as ‘less dedicated’ or something like that.

by Matt0330 on Jan 31, 2026 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

Not entirely. Having grown up in Philly, Pat was stuck being compared to J.D. Drew (who the Phillies picked and didn’t sign the prior year). Philly fans didn’t want him to be Schmidt, we just wanted him to be much better than that scumbag Drew (we weren’t fond, and I’m choosing words for effect. I have no idea if Drew is or is not a scumbag).

It’s like when you college Girlfriend breaks up with you and you want to show off your new Girlfriend to prove what a mistake she made. It was unfair to stick the Bat with that, but in the end Philly fans came around to mostly love Burrell.

by Cormican on Feb 2, 2026 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds about right

He was pretty much the de facto mayor of the city (think Center City) after midnight anyways.

by Matt0330 on Feb 3, 2026 8:25 AM EST up reply actions

I mean, since I grew up in Philly I saw…

Got called away in the middle of my post yesterday and clearly forgot where I left off.

by Cormican on Feb 3, 2026 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

About as valuable as Austin Kearns

Which has t be surprising to the casual. I’ll always think of Kearns as a bust, but ill be wrong.

by bookbook on Jan 30, 2026 6:30 PM EST reply actions

Considering the numbers Burrell put up

he must have been REALLY bad in the OF if his career value is the same as Kearns. Not that Kearns was an awful player, but it just always seemed that Kearns never played 100 games in a season.

by NastyNate82 on Jan 30, 2026 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

Which to me is a big part of the problem with the WAR stat

It puts way too much weight on defense at non-critical positions. Corner OF and 1st base defense should really be secondary concerns. The goal in those spots needs to be offense.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Jan 30, 2026 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

Good point

by Matt0330 on Jan 31, 2026 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Burrell lost 6.2 wins (fWAR) for defense

But he also lost 3.2 wins to pretty bad baserunning.
Kearns gained 4.7 wins for defense and 1.4 wins for baserunning.
So, while Burrell has a 21.9 to 18.7 advantage in fWAR, he had about a 31.2 to 12.6 edge on offense alone.
I think this is pretty fair, and doesn’t discount him unfairly. You have to play defense and run the bases, not just hit the ball. Kearns had more value in those two aspects, and less value offensively.

by cookiedabookie on Jan 31, 2026 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

That makes absolutely no sense.

At the end of the day, baseball is about scoring more runs than you give up. Having a poor defender in LF or 1B will cause you to have more runs against, just as a poor defender at SS would; the difference is, it’s harder to find a SS who is good at everything than a LF who can hit and defend. That’s why we have positional adjustments. Fielding matters at every position. A guy who is a +20 run hitter, and -10 run defender in LF is less valuable than a +10 hitter, +10 defender, period.

All that matters is run differential, how you get there is entirely irrelevant.

Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com

by Franchise887 on Feb 1, 2026 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

They weren't anywhere near approximate in their primes really

In my opinion of course. Some dubious fielding #s propping up Kearns & dinging Pat Burrell naturally.

by Matt0330 on Jan 31, 2026 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

WAR is a flawed stat for that reason

If they would have put Burrell at 1st base. His WAR would likely be MUCH higher than it ended up being.

He was penalized by being a below average LFer when he could have been at least an average 1st baseman.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Jan 31, 2026 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

He gained 0.5 WAR per season by being in LF over 1B

With about ten seasons of PA (650 PA/year), he would lose an additional 5 wins just by playing his career at 1B. Now, he averaged -0.6 WAR per season as a LF. So, in order to have equal value as a first baseman as he did in left field, he would have to be a league average first baseman his entire career (-0.1 WAR per year at 1B), equivalent to Orlando Cepeda or Boog Powell. Could he be a better defensive first baseman than left fielder? Sure, but he could have also been worse.

by cookiedabookie on Jan 31, 2026 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I believe he played 1st base in College

He was also almost exclusively a 1st baseman in his first two Minor League seasons. No idea how good he was there. But I look at the fact he could play a passable LF as an organizational plus.

Overall I just can’t 100% trust a stat that considers Alexi Ramirez and Brent Gardner to be equals of Albert Pujols. It just feels like a flawed metric. Mainly due to the fact that defense in and of itself hasn’t been able to be scored by metrics very well thus far.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Jan 31, 2026 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, the defensive numbers are still a work in progress

But I think they are close enough where they shouldn’t be discounted entirely. The fact that WAR, including the defense component, corresponds pretty well with actual victories gives it a bit more credibility I would think. Looking at the career defensive WAR leaders on BB-Ref (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_career.shtml), it seems to me that it must be measuring something correctly.
Now, I believe a player can have a great, fluky defensive season just like they can have a great, fluky offensive season, so one year defensive stats may not necessarily translate to the next year. I also think if we could average out the big three defensive stats, that would probably be a better measure (more data, less noise).

by cookiedabookie on Jan 31, 2026 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

This is correct...

I don’t have my study in front of me (on my home computer, not on this work one), but IIRC, from ~2005-2010, aggregrate team WAR had a .989 correlation to team wins.

Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com

by Franchise887 on Feb 1, 2026 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

But Jeff Austin was supposed to be close to MLB ready!

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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 30, 2026 7:16 PM EST reply actions

early success

I thought you made a good point in your other post, John, that one of the reasons he was viewed as a disappointment was because he had early success. After his 2002 season, it looked like he was going to break through and become a superstar. Then he regressed, was unable to drop his strikeouts further, didn’t become quite the power hitter he looked like he would, and gave away a ton of his value with terrible fielding. There’s also the fact that his career collapsed: even though his defense hurt his overall value, he was an excellent hitter from 2005-2008, posting a 128 wRC+ as he entered free agency as a 32 year old. Three years later he’s done, having contributed next to nothing in two of the last three years.

by Ben Hall on Jan 30, 2026 7:26 PM EST reply actions

Bryce Harper

And this is why the Harper dream talk is annoying. I’d also link to this for some added perspective:

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/33714192/34628960

I noted Burnitz as a favorable outcome for Harper. I’d say Burrell is similar.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 31, 2026 1:50 AM EST reply actions

burrell was never the prospect that harper is...nor was burnitz...

him also being a #1 pick doesnt mean that they were similar as prospects…unless of course you consider hochevar and starsburg similar as prospects

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2026 10:16 PM EST up reply actions

JD Drew was the top rated talent

However Philly didnt take him because they drafted him and couldn’t get him to sign in 97.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Jan 31, 2026 10:44 PM EST up reply actions

Drew

Drew was every bit as good a prospect as Harper.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 1, 2026 4:37 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

Drew has been an excellent pro as well. Really the only drawback to his career has been nagging injury issues.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Feb 1, 2026 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

i think harper is a slightly better prospect...

but drew would be a solid outcome for harper…but burrell would be a disappointment…drew has been twice as valuable of a player as burrell…even with the injuries

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2026 1:12 PM EST up reply actions