All Questions Answered
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:01 AM EST
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PrintThis is an All Questions Answered thread.
Ground Rules:
1) one question per poster
2) don't try to disguise multiple questions as one
3) this is rapid-fire format. Questions requiring large amounts of research may be punted or turned into a different post.
NO MORE QUESTIONS PLEASE. I HAVE PLENTY TO WORK THROUGH.
Enjoy!
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Ryan Jackson...
Future starting SS on a contending team?
here is what I wrote in the book, which explains my view
Ryan Jackson was a fifth-round pick in 2009, from the University of Miami-Florida.
He was drafted for his glove; he shows decent range, a strong and accurate throwing
arm, makes few mistakes, and is fundamentally sound. Scouts have felt since his
college days that his glove would get him to the majors, but now he’s showing some
offense to go with the Big-D, demonstrating surprising pop last year in the Double-A
Texas League. I doubt he will hit double-digit homers in the majors, but he’s got pop
to the gaps and a decent feel for the strike zone. He is also a very good bunter.
Jackson should be a fine utility player, and there is a chance he’ll hit enough to start
for someone. Grade C+.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
brendan ryan
would that be a good comparison?
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Feb 3, 2012 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Why you gotta pick on the Giants?
there is a chance he’ll hit enough to start
for someone.
COMIN' ATCHA, FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA!
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Proud adoptive Father of Joe Panik. 2011 NWL MVP .
Job 1:14-15
Brendan Ryan has fantastic range
Way more than “decent”.
Cespedes
What’s your opinion of Cespedes at this time (whether by sources or gut)?
cespedes
Sources: I haven’t heard anything that you guys haven’t heard.
Gut Feeling: My gut feeling is that he’ll be an above-average player but not really a star. But I want to see him in person and not just rely on video and word-of-mouth before I actually have an opinion I’ll put my name behind with him
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
I'm assuming you mean McDonald compared to Jackson, not Cespedes
I think he can hit better than McDonald. More walks and a bit more pop.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Brad Miller
What do you see is his offensive potential and ETA
by forloveofthegam3 on Feb 3, 2012 10:05 AM EST reply actions
miller
i love Miller’s bat…should hit for a high average with some pop. ETA…that will depend on his defense. if he can play shortstop he could be ready very quickly, but there’s a lot of doubt that he can do that
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
What would be your draft strategy for the Twins this year?
Real not Shadow.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
well....
Picking that early, you have to go with BPA. However, I would be taking particular looks at
*Catchers
*Power pitchers
*Middle infielders
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Need an ace
This team is in such dire need of an ace, I don’t see how they can look at anything other than a great power arm that projects as a front of the rotation guy if one is there…even if Wimmers and Gibson recover their status and make the team, I don’t think either has that ace upside…
yes
Yes, they need someone to build a rotation around.
But they also need a catcher who can plausibly take over for Mauer. They have extra picks this year and it will be very interesting to see how they approach it
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Ricky Oropesa
Did Efrin “Ricky” Oropesa return back to USC? The SF Giants list him as unsigned on their webpage.
He signed right before the deadline on August 16th. For some reason the Giants didn’t put him on their AZL Rookie League roster to get in 50+ ABs. Offseason comments by Giants management point to him starting for San Jose in the A+ Cal League this season, barring injury or a truly horrible spring training campaign.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Kolten Wong
Is the following line a realistic expectation for him as a base mlb projection… .290 20HR 10SB .800 OPS and do you think we could see him in mlb this season?
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
I have a tough time seeing
20 HR. I would say .280 10-13 HR 10 SB.
by The Gottfather on Feb 3, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
agree with Gottfather
I don’t see 20+ homers out of Wong, but .280-.300, 10-15 homers, doubles…think Todd Walker with a much better glove
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Jordan Schafer
Has yet to hit consistently at the MLB level. He’s 25, how do you see him from this point forward, a bust or potential to break out?
by lawson3 on Feb 3, 2012 10:08 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I think it's crazy...
…that he used to side by side with Heyward (albeit, below) on the lists.We can only hope he’s young enough to have something left.
schafer
I think he can improve enough to hold a fourth/fifth outfield job but I don’t see him as a long-term regular or a guy with huge sleeper potential
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Angel Villalona
What do you expect from him this year after the lengthy layoff?
You can read my thoughts on all things New York sports at SNYWhyGuys.com
Villalona
A two-year layoff is hard to come back from. Supposedly he still has his swing and bat speed, but he was always a raw hitter with poor plate discipline. I don’t expect much out of him to be honest
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Just wondering
Why you say that a B+ hitter is not the same as a B+ pitcher, but never will we see a B hitter ranked above a B+ pitcher on your lists. Would this not imply that the ratings are related?
If you want to say dumb things, you can't get mad when I call you dumb.
by dudedudedude on Feb 3, 2012 10:10 AM EST via mobile reply actions
pitching/hitting
If it was up to me, I wouldn’t put hitters and pitchers on the same lists at all. I would even split lists within organizations. That is my philosophical position and that hasn’t changed.
But I’m tired of tilting at windmills about it. People want combined lists, so I do them.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Rendon
Obviously we know by now that his junior year and power decline has caused some seed of doubt amongst people regarding his power ceiling. My question is, are you one of those folks or do you still see a guy who is going to put up 20-25 HR annually to go along with his elite hit tool?
rendon
I expect 20-homer power at his peak with lots of doubles, tons of walks/OBP, high batting average
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
buckel
I love Buckel. I can see him as a number two starter if everything goes right
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Moore or Stras?
Matt Moore or Stephen Strasburg…
Starting 2012 and for the next 5-10 years… who you taking?
I might be in the minority about this
But I might very well take Moore.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Lindor
People seem to be getting higher and higher on this kid. Obviously we have to see what he does this year, but do you think his ceiling is very similiar to Profars?
by CaptainHowdy on Feb 3, 2012 10:15 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Not a bad comp
They are similar size, similar tools. Lindor has Profar-like potential.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Barnes
I like his size, arm strength, mechanics, and the statistical improvement he showed in college, going from mediocre freshman to excellent junior.
2014.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Jorge Soler
I have recently read that Soler hasn’t been scouted all that much and that most of his evals are based on industry buzz. Can you either confirm or deny this and make an a guess as to where he would fall in your top 50 hitters and with what grade. Also, is there an organization among those vying for his services that you think would be best suited for his development?
by The Autodrafters on Feb 3, 2012 10:16 AM EST reply actions
Soler
He would not fit into my Top 50 hitters yet…there just isn’t enough information about him. Even after he signs, I want better scouting reports and some objective information, even from just rookie ball.
I haven’t heard anything about Soler that is beyond public knowledge at this point.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
alonso
Does yonder alonso start the year with the padres or do they start him at AAA?
Who else starts at 1B? Guzman?
Rizzo WAS their 1B of the future and they dealt him away for Cashner, Alonso is now the solution at 1B for the Padres…
by kevindavidsonjr on Feb 3, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
Well... (not John)
From what is coming out in reports, it will be a platoon between Alonso and Guzman. Blanks might get some time as well.
But, for what its worth, Byrnes has already stated he wants Alonso to start. Barring a complete lack of health or skill during spring training, I don’t see any waves of change.
agreed
Barring injury or an abysmal spring training, Alonso is the 1B.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Colby Rasmus
Not a prospect, but not an established player either per se. What are your expectations for him now entering his first full year out of St. Louis?
I mean... (not John)
He’s had 3 full season now. Kind of established. I seem as being what he is already.
.260 hitter, 15-20 HR, double digit SB and plays a good CF.
yeah for now
I think he is what he is, for now.
However, he has a broad range of skills, and I expect he’ll kick his production up a notch when he gets in the age 27-29 range, have an All-Star season or two in him
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
2012 draft
How do you make the first three picks right now, more or less of the top of your heard (and obviously need-blind)?
I've only just begun to study the draft
But if I had to guess
Hou-Appel
Min-Zunino
Sea-Giolito
Bal-Buxton
KC-Marrero
I wouldn’t bet money on that at all. Way too much can change between now and June
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Adeiny Hechevarria
What do you think will happen with him in the Majors? Will the Jays move him to 2B, maybe move Escobar, or wait and just take a wait and see?
Touch em all Joe...
I think it is wait and see right now
He’s got to show something with the bat outside of Las Vegas/PCL. If he does, the Jays will find a way to make room in 2013
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I have to go to the doctor
I’ll be back in awhile
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
not knockin it
but based on other AQA, this might be too broad.
Alex Cobb
Where do you see his ceiling and his floor?
cobb
I think what he did in the majors last year is exactly what he should be expected to do, given good health
Just Have a feeling
I recall a couple years ago, before Trout blew up, you saying you “just had a feeling” about him, or something like that, even though it wasn’t empirical. Are there any prospects that you’ve just got a hunch about these days?
hunch
Well…yeah, I talk about some in the book. This is also a good idea for an article..“hunch” players.
I have a hunch that Mikie Mahtook is going to make people wonder why he lasted so long in the draft.
Lawrie
I know there are two sides here, one that loves and overrates him, and another that really really loves and overrates him. Which is fine, I’m in the middle of those two.
But what is your gut feeling on how he produces this year and for the rest of his career? Do you see anything there, besides makeup, that would hold him back from establishing a 270/350/470 peak with 30 SB’s? Or do you have some ice water to cool me down.
Sometimes, I still get into a fetal position while yelling “GORDON BECKHAM! I RUE THE DAY!” And it makes me sad. Really really sad.
So if you're in the middle
Are there really two sides here? Seems there’s now a third.
I'm only one guy...
…unless you would like to join me?
No, I'm good
I’m floating in the ether amongst the crowd that ‘loves’ Brett Lawrie. We’ll be happy to welcome you aboard in April.
haha
Thanks for the invite. I have to ask, what’s your gut call on his continual peak ceiling? Was I too high or low?
My opinion
Far from infallible obviously, but I think your above slash line could be a bit cautious. I think he has franchise cornerstone player potential. I’m not sure he ever steals 30 SB in a season (i’d guess ‘no’), but he seems a heady sort & he’s athletic too so who knows.
For what it’s worht, I think the ‘makeup’ stuff permeated by a lot of folks is a bit nebulous, but a couple of pictures of a kid (which he was) partying with his friends are all it takes I guess. I don’t know anything beyond that, but some read into the fact that Milwaukee traded him so ‘easily’ as an indictment of sorts against Lawrie apparently (I’d counter that Shaun Marcum is good & wasn’t going to come cheaply though).
I hear ya...
…But I do think the makeup went beyond that. I think it was Marc Hutlet who mentioned that there was a majority of people in FO’s that know more about his make-up, beyond the pictures. That being said, I was pretty wild when young. The only difference is I didn’t have awesome skills in baseball, so I will always give the benefit of the doubt.
I agree that I might be cautious, but he stays at 3B with that slash line, seems like a real difference maker. I didn’t want to put a ‘pie in the sky’ slash, but I like your commentary.
On his speed, I’m really not skilled enough to translate athleticism. I know he gets CS a lot, but that he has potential. Not a true speedster, but I have to take into account with what you said and maybe expect 15-20 in his prime?
Is it just me, or are we looking at the next David Wright here (pre concussion/citi wall of death)?
David Wright
That’s a pretty good comparison & I could see it. Small major league sample, but I think that Lawrie could be a better defender if all goes well for him. We shall see.
Chris Withrow
Is he a bust, or does he finally start pitching to his potential this year?
hard to say bust...
at age 23. But deifnitely needs to work on control or he ends up a RP.
way too soon to call a bust on Withrow
I’m actually pretty optimistic about him. I think he’ll figure it out, at least enough to be an effective reliever, but he still has a shot as a starter.
Buy Low
Best Buy low trade targets for a new dynasty league.
Thanks!
by CT's #1 Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2012 10:25 AM EST reply actions
No, if I'm starting a dynasty league, I don't want to trade at Best Buy or Target.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 3, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Album question
Better &/or favorite 1967 debut LP – Piper at the Gates of Dawn or Are You Experienced?
by Matt0330 on Feb 3, 2012 10:25 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
hmm
Well I’m a huge Floyd fan.
Piper has some good moments but Experienced is a better and more refined album
Can't disagree
Both albums are 10 out of 10s for me and they’re both staggering debuts. Of course, save for one song, this would be the last of Syd Barrett’s output with the Floyd & Jimi Hendrix would only have a career a few years longer himself (2 more LPs before his death if memory serves). Syd was Pink Floyd back then though – most figured their future wasn’t so bright sans Barrett (their original management followed him after his dismissal). Roger Waters/David Gilmour Floyd is pretty much Robinson Cano or something in prospect terms as their complete reinvention & subsequent success was unexpected for a lot of folks. Thanks for the reply.
Best bats in minors
Taking guys like Harper and Trout out of the equation, and not worrying about position, which 2 or 3 bats are you highest on? Concerned more with likelihood to reach ceiling rather than just highest ceiling.
Thomas Neal
Formerly of the Giants, now a Cleveland prospect. Seems like he fell of the map entirely — what happened? I know he was injured for a while last year but is there something else going on?
I have always liked Neal, but his power and plate discipline
haven’t been impressive since reaching the high minors, as he tends to chase
breaking balls. I used to see him as a solid regular, but currently he looks more like a
role player and extra bat. He doesn’t have the speed or defensive skills to force
himself into the lineup unless he hits for more power. Grade C.
Who's the next Mike Trout
Not necessarily which HS outfielder is going to hit the majors before turning 20, but if there another HS outfielder who is looking at a meteoric rise to the majors who would you pick?
Carlos Quentin's time has arrived.
Marisnick is already older than Trout
Seems like an odd choice if you’re looking for “the next” Trout. Am I being too literal?
by FI2 on Feb 3, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
want to say Brandon Nimmo but don't see it at all.
Maybe Mason Williams, Niko Goodrum?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 4, 2012 2:28 AM EST up reply actions
A.J. Jimenez
You wondered how much power he’d develop in your Top 20 (partial) write-up – how much power does he need to develop to be a solid every day regular? Are the rest of the skills there?
jimenez
I think he could get to 10-12 homers a year eventually but I don’t think he’ll be a huge home run guy. He doesn’t need to be…his glove is quite good and he can hit.
Jesse Biddle
You’ve got him higher on the top 50 pitchers list than the community list and I suspect you’ve got him higher than a lot of other expert’s lists ultimately will too. I think Perez, Peacock, Banuelos, Cole, Zach Lee, Odorizzi etc. will generally show up well in front of him, and I don’t get the sense that many other experts put him on the same level as those other B+ pitchers.
What do you think accounts for the difference? Why are you a bit higher on him than other evaluators are?
biddle
Well I would have to go through and read what everyone else has written to see how we all compare. I know he lost a bit of velocity last year, but his curve and change improved. Sometimes you have to go with a hunch, and my hunch is that Biddle will take another step forward in ’12
The next Mike Stanton?
As far as being the next “Mr. Light Tower Power:” Marcell Ozuna or Nomar Mazara?
by jerzbravesboy24 on Feb 3, 2012 10:30 AM EST reply actions
Domingo Santana
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
I actually think Ozuna has more raw power than Santana
Far from an expert though & I didn’t see either post-2010. I like them both but I don’t think either is necessarily the next Stanton as far as raw power goes, but then again who is? Josh Hamilton maybe?
stanton
Hmm….hard to beat Stanton for raw power. Harper has that kind of power and better pure hitting skills compared to Stanton at that age. I think Ozuna and Mazara would be a notch below that, but still way above-average.
Brandon Nimmo
Can you rate his hit/power/discipline/speed tools on a 20-80 scale? Maybe present/potential ratings?
On Twitter at RedSoxFaithful
Blogging at WAU: The Blog
Nimmo
Well, I have not seen Nimmo in person and I don’t like using 20/80 for guys I haven’t seen in person.
Anthony Gose
Do you see Anthony Gose becoming a complete player at the major league level (great power/speed combo with an acceptable BA) and when can we expect him in Toronto? Thanks!
"complete"
I don’t think he will ever hit for a “good” batting average. If he hits .250-.260 they should be happy.
He has a shot to draw enough walks to keep his OBP acceptable even with the low batting average. I expect moderate power. Speed/defense pushes him into B+ range but that was a grade I struggled with
Giants or Patriots?
j/k
Who do you think will be the biggest riser next year out of all MLB prospects?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
superbowl
I pay no attention to football at all.
“biggest riser”…how do you define that? Di you mean a guy who is already on the radar but can improve considerably, or do you mean someone that nobody has ever heard of who can come out of nowhere?
This seems like something for a larger piece
pitching vs. hitting in systems
Given the looks back at the prospect ratings for the top 30 pitchers/position players, would you rather have a system that was top-heavy with pitching prospects or with position prospects? Seems like position prospects were actually more likely to come out of relative prospect obscurity.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 3, 2012 10:34 AM EST reply actions
this surprised me looking at the prospect retros
I always expected pitching to be more volatile but it seems like more hitters came from the C+ ranks. This makes me happy as a Pirates fan, since our system really hangs on Taillon and Cole (and maybe Heredia) now, but then again maybe it should make me concerned about all the Zachs and Colton Cain.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 3, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
well...
I am better at figuring out pitchers than hitters.
So should I invest in my strength? Or invest in my weakness and try to improve it?
rashad ramsey, rashun dixon, dayton alexander, aaron shipman, vicmal de la cruz
Highest upside? Lowest Floor?
Snoochies
Ramsey?
kid that has hit .150 and .220 with no power in two years in Rookie ball?
Don’t see how he can even be mentioned in any terms
he was a rashun dixon-like draft
two sport star, athletic, and he’s just 19, he just hasn’t put his tools together in 1 season
Snoochies
I watch a lot of AzL games
and FWIW I don’t recall the kid.
I would put the level of the AzL as comparable to high level high school ball in AZ and JUCO ball in AZ. For the most part kids that don’t hit .200 in the AzL would have a hard time playing high level high school baseball in AZ
eh
I’d say de la cruz and dixon have highest ceilings.
Lowest floor? They all have the floor of “doesn’t turn into anything at all”
where would you slot Concepcion on the Cubs list?
thanks.
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 3, 2012 10:35 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
^^ Not John says, "This is also my question!" ^^
"[The Cubs] have a very famous tradition in baseball, and it will be nice to be part of turning it around." ~ Jamie Quirk, Bench Coach
concepcion
I don’t know enough about him to hazard a guess at this point. I haven’t had a chance to review anything but the vaguest scouting reports or seen any recent video.
IFA guys
I know we haven’t seen much of these guys (if at all) in the states but how would you rank these guys:
Nomar Mazara
Ronald Guzman (see him as a 1B in the future?)
Elier Hernandez
Jorge Soler
I know Soler is a couple years older, so would he be the safest of the 4?
I also realize this would mainly be a guess, but I would be interested in your input.
THANKS!!
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
soler
I won’t hazard a guess on Soler. I know that’s not the answer you wanted, but I really don’t know. The reports for me are just too vague and they aren’t much better about the other guys.
The other guys I would probably go Guzman, Hernandez, Mazara.
Good chance none of them pan out.
3B in 2017
5 years from now, Moustakas or Arenado? Both still at 3B? What kind of stats to expect?
hmmm
I like them both but I think I’ll go with Arenado. He will remain at third. Moose might have to switch if he bulks up too much.
Expect both to be .280+ hitters with 20+ homers in neutral environment. Arenado will have an edge with home park.
Trey McNutt
How much of McNutt’s problems last season were due to random injuries, including the blisters he had? Do you think he could bounce back next season, and if he has a similar year to his 2010 campaign (2.48 ERA, 10.2 K/9 while avoiding injuries), what would you rate him in terms of letter grade?
PPPPPPUNTO 4 MVP 2010
injuries
The injuries were bothersome enough that I think we just have to write the season off and try again in 2012. If he had stayed healthy and kept pitching well, he would have ended the year in the majors and would have been somewhere in the B+/A range
Keyvius Sampson
Do you see him ultimately ending up in the pen for the Pads?
key
I don’t get the stuff about making him a reliever at this point. I see him as a starter, or at least he’s got a decent shot to be one.
Jenrry Mejia
Would you even bother putting him in the rotation or put him in the bullpen to try and avoid injury?
JR Graham
In your opinion, does he start or relieve and how long does it take to make it to Atlanta?
Oh come on!
77% LOB%, 185 lbs, 2.12 FIP, 73.4% innings pitched at 18:45 or later, a -8.0539 BYOB (mooch!), 13 games played (witchcraft!), an acronym for a first name, etc. He’s obviously going to be in Atlanta in 2.593 years.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 4, 2012 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Matt Carpenter
He seems blocked in St. Louis, but I’d think he’d have some value to a team needing a 3rdbaseman. Looks a lot like Chase Headley to me (solid glove, good OBP, mediocre to worse power), who supposedly had a number of teams after him. Where do you think his future lies?
I like Carpenter
A 13th round pick in ’09 from Texas Christian, Carpenter has done nothing but play
well in pro ball. There are two main negatives for him. Scouts are still lukewarm
about his tools and his swing, and he’s already 26 years old. However, there are
many positives too. He has excellent plate discipline and has maintained it at every
level. While he’s not going to hit a ton of home runs in the majors, he should hit
plenty of doubles. There is nothing to complain about in the numbers; he hits for
average, gets on base, and doesn’t strike out a lot. His BB/K/AB ratio is excellent,
and I still think he could develop into a Bill Mueller-type hitter if all goes well. With
the glove, Carpenter always posts excellent defensive statistics, with a low error rate
and strong range factors, but scouts rate his glove as merely adequate. Although
Zack Cox is considered the third baseman of the future for the Cardinals, Carpenter
deserves a shot too, in St. Louis or elsewhere. The main advantage Cox has over
Carpenter is a newer birthday, which gives Zack more room to develop. Grade B-.
Dante Bichette Jr.
What does his ceiling look like as a Major Leaguer?
bichette
This is a lazy comp, but it makes sense too: if he really pans out, imagine his dad with the ability to play 3B.
I don’t know if Jr. will have quite that much power, but his pure hitting sklls are better than dad’s at the same stage
Looks like he will have a way better batting eye
I would say somewhere between Bobby Bonilla and Bill Mueller.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 5, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Tom Milone
He seems likely to start for the A’s this year. What should we expect from him?
Thanks!
-Dan
milone
I like Milone. Reasonable expectation: league-average numbers, good control. There is some chance he could get beyond that. In his case, I think the radar guns matter less than the pitching skills.
Pirates Pitchers
Are both Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon headed to Bradenton to start the year?
If Henderson Alvarez still had rookie eligibility
What would have been his grade?
Thanks, John!
not John...
…but this might help you out.
“**If he still qualified as a prospect, Henderson Alvarez looks like a very strong Grade B/borderline B+ to me, which would put him in the 8-10 range on the Blue Jay list.”
Brad Peacock
Do you think he can strike out 200 guys in a season and who currently in the majors could be a good comp for his upside?
Matt Wieters is the Truth. Matt Wieters is divine presence. Matt Wieters is eternal life. Matt Wieters is within you. Matt Wieters is here. Matt Wieters is Now.
Young Catchers
John, thanks for the thread. Given the choice, who would you select as your teams catcher of the future – the talented but enigmatic Wilin Rosario, or the upstart Salvador Perez?
Do you see the mir Garrett experiment working?
More like could we see something happen with him like we did Taijuan Walker?
He doesn't care about baseball
He failed to qualify for DI basketball and instead of focusing on baseball he opted to go to a prep school and then transfered to St Johns over Xmas. Padres were hoping when he couldn’t qualify he would concentrate on pitching but that obviouslyisn’t the case.
He’s one of those guys that will try to fall back on baseball after all basketball avenues are exhausted.
Reds
"Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider." -George Carlin
Based on your opinion, please rank in order who will make the biggest impact on MLB
Manny Banuelos
Jake Odorizzi
James Paxton
Anthony Ranaudo
Kyle Gibson
Allen Webster
long or short term?
Trying to find a balance between those, I would go
Paxton, Odorizzi, Banuelos, Webster. Ranaudo….Gibson need to see if he’s healthy before ranking.
Young SPs
Could you rank these SPs in order how much you would want your franchise to have them ? Jacob Turner, Zach Britton, Dylan Bundy, Mike Leake
Very tough
Turner/Bundy neck and neck. then Leake. then Britton
Turner will help more in the short run, but Bundy has higher upside.
Cody Buckel
John:
How quickly do you see Cody Buckel ascending up the Texas depth chart and into their rotation? Will there be a slot by the time he’s ready, or do you view him as trade bait for another team?
Buckel
I like Buckel but he’s 2 years from sniffing the majors.
Lord knows what the Rangers rotation will look like in 2014-2015…given how much attrition there is with pitchers.
If healthy, Buckel will start being in conversations around 2014
Noel Arguelles
Was the shoulder injury the cause for the velocity drop & low k-rate? Seems like he pitched well debuting at High-A without working with everything. Any reason not to expect a solid 2012 campaign?
I am not a big fan of Arguelles
A Cuban defector, Noel Arguelles signed a five-year major league contract worth $7
million in January 2010. He missed all of 2010 with a shoulder injury, then came
back to have a decent year in the Carolina League in ’11. Arguelles hit 94 MPH
before his injury but was more in the 88-90 range last year. He has a good curve and
a very good changeup, but looks more like a fifth starter or long reliever than an ace
at this point. His numbers were boosted last year by the friendly environment at
Wilmington, where he posted a 2.26 ERA, as opposed to 4.95 with weaker
peripherals on the road. He is a fly ball pitcher and I’m not enamored of his low
strikeout rate. Grade C.
yes and no
The specificity of it is a tongue-in-cheek thing.
The general outline of what I expect is not.
Brian Matusz
Is it just a confidence thing at this point, and will he right the ship?
We used to laugh at Grandpa when he'd head off and go fishing. But we
wouldn't be laughing that evening when he'd come back with some whore he
picked up in town.
not John...
…but I think its more of a MPH thing.
dunno
Dunno…seems like a combination of things that snowballed.
He has a chance to recover. Too much talent there and past performance to conclude he can’t turn it around.
still wonder
if there was some minor injury and he was adjusting his mechanics a bit, as his velocity dipped a bit.
that said, dan duquette has made comments in the baltimore area about how some of the young arms didn’t prepare enough for the 2011 season, and it’s logical to wonder if that comment is directed towards Matusz. With Yada, Chen, Eveland in, Matusz is going to have to work harder to win a rotation spot.
Christian Villanueva
Does he make more sense long term for Texas as Olt could become a trade candidate to fill a roster hole with Beltre already signed?
by kevindavidsonjr on Feb 3, 2012 11:04 AM EST reply actions
i like olt better
Villanueva still has some things to work though….some patience issues, and a sharp home/road split last year. I like him, but prefer Olt
#1 prospect in 2013
Assuming the big 3 graduate, who has the inside track to be #1 in 2013
by ROBERTS04 on Feb 3, 2012 11:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I <3 profar
that .300/.400/.500 (i know not entirely there, but close enough) line he put up is nothing if not impressive for a 18 year old. not to mention the 23 SBs, good defense and high make up.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 4, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
Segura
Future multiple time all star or more solid regular?
Angels fan here
I’d say more of a solid regular like Aybar right now. Here’s what rghan from HalosHeaven had to say about him. He has that prototypical swing at everything close approach that is so common among angels spects. I think this along with injuries will damage his career and hold him to only a solid regular
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Feb 3, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
this is KT we're talking about
it’ll never happen
sorry man
But you don’t know KT. Blanks was drafted pre-Fuson with the padres & it was KT who forced Fuson’s hand in letting Blanks play LF. Suggesting KT as a GM who would take an under-appreciated Blanks off the Padres’ roster is quite intelligent. The flip-side however is that Blanks will eventually require a move to 1B. Can the D’Backs provide that?
-peter
by PeterF on Feb 4, 2012 12:01 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
i have to admit my statement is probably more applicable
to Dom Brown than Kyle Blanks. KT hasn’t bought low on a player in his past two winters here. and if he isn’t willing to play a young GG in LF over Kubel, why is he going to play a buy-low candidate over Kubel in LF?
on the other hand, KT is definitely prone to handing out charity contracts to his ex-Padres, so Kyle Blanks is definitely not out of the question
While the Padres selected Blanks in the spectacularly awful 2004 draft that lost KT the right to ever have a say in amateur scouting again for the organization (Matt Bush may have been Dick Freeman’s fault, but the next 15 position players in that class who never reached Double-A were all about the Tommy Bahama-shirted one), he signed as a DnF when Grady and Lane Decker hounded him for a few months the following spring.
DePo is the one who finally pushed for the move to the OF.
by realitypolice on Feb 4, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Don't underestimate Kubel.
I think he’ll play well in that park. When healthy, he has some pop, but it was masked once they moved to Target Field.
but
from everything i’ve read he is maybe the worst defensive OFer in baseball, and that will be magnified in the NL West with so many big pitchers parks.
I can understand us needing and trying to stretch a little more offense, but I’d rather have it at 3B than in the OF. Probably no division places a premium on OF defense than ours
Kubel's career is an interesting story
John i’d love to see you do a similar career re-hash like you did with Sandoval…. or even a different one?
Kubel was arguably a better hitter coming up through the minors than Cuddyer, Mauer and Morneau and Restovich, Garrett Jones, Brian Buchanon .
Because of my youth and bias when i didn’t know better, BEFORE Kubel’s massive knee injury in his rookie season / Last year in AAA I thought we were going to be seeing the second coming of Babe Ruth. (offensively)
He was really that incredible in the minors, its too bad his career had to take this path, I tihnk he will be a tremendous assett to the D’ Backs this year, its too bad he can’t play 1B though, COF is a bit of a problem with him.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 4, 2012 2:34 AM EST up reply actions
Is this serious?
‘Because of my youth and bias when i didn’t know better, BEFORE Kubel’s massive knee injury in his rookie season / Last year in AAA I thought we were going to be seeing the second coming of Babe Ruth. (offensively)’
Second coming
of Brian Giles (offensively) I could have seen.
by charles wallace on Feb 6, 2012 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
Yeah although I like Brown better than Blanks. But yeah…too early to write them off.
As for Kubel….he’s got a VERY impressive bat, but yeah, the glove could get exposed. We’ll see.
yeah he's still got seasons ahead of him with .300/340/520 type of years
with easy 25-30 Hr caliber bat per year.
With that said he may only see Playing Time enough to hit 20 a year…largely due to his defensive inability (unless he learns 1B in a hurry) He should be the DH in interleague play i would think.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 4, 2012 2:38 AM EST up reply actions
I wish Blanks would crowd the plate and then just keep his hands in.
He’s another guy who likes to get extended and drop the bat head, but if he stayed consistent with a quick “hands in” swing, he’d be lethal. Even without extending, he’d still have ample power with his size and strength. Of course, pitchers would hit him and try to get him off the plate. But if he held his ground and charged the mound once or twice pitchers wouldn’t risk it. If he just would follow a Frank Thomas or Barry Bonds approach, he could be a star and make a 100 million bucks. As it is, he’ll be out of baseball in 5 years.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
Just for fun
If you had to pick one of these predictions for 2012, which would it be?
1) Bryce Harper hits 30 HRs in the majors.
2) Matt Moore has an ERA well below 3, with 200+ Ks, and finishes in Top-3 in Cy Young voting.
3) Mike Trout hits 20 HR / 40 SB, with an OPS above .850.
not John but
I pick Moore, just because he’s closest to going through normal development and that gives me more confidence he’ll be able to succeed quickly in the minors. I think it’s hasty to assume that Harper will come in and succeed right away when his minor league stats last year didn’t translate into good ML numbers.
Also, in last year’s offensive environment, 30 HRs was a bunch.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 3, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I tend to agree with Zane...
…simply because Moore is the most likely to have more playing time than the other two.
However, if Harper does indeed begin the year with the Nat’s (which I still think is a big if), you almost have to go with that prediction of 30 HR’s simply because the line you give Moore would be hard pressed to match by any pitcher in the league not named Halladay.
I don’t mention Trout, because its pretty hard to conceive him coming up before June, and then racking enough playing time to pad his counting stats that high.
Frankly, I think all three are pretty impossible.
yeah, that is a pretty big line for Moore
Let’s say that in terms of likely to have a huge year (not huge for a rookie) in 2012, I rank them Moore-Trout-Harper.
That’s just for 2012; I’m not a hater.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 3, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I’m not sure about Trout ever having 20 HR power, and definitely not this year.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 3, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Ever?
He hit 16 hr in AA/MLB combined last year to go along with double digit triples. He had quite a few of his doubles/triples hit off the walls in dead center, etc while in AA to. This was in a pitchers league/park as well. I’d say he already has the ability to pop 20 HR’s
How many doubles/triples did he hit off the wall in dead centre?
I could see him doing it a few times but I see him as Johnny Damon with more speed (that is a great player in my opinion).
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 4, 2012 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
Couldn't give a number
admittedly, all I have to go on for this is milb audio for his AA games. I listened to the Arkansas Travelers games and I remember at least 4-5 times where the radio guys would mention him crushing the ball off the wall in left center/centerfield. 16 hr total last year in 476 AB’s shows some growth in his power development IMO. I honestly think he’ll settle into the 20-25 range as he continues to mature.
yeah....
I say 2/1/3
I am very pro-Harper…hell I’m pro all of these guys. But of the scenarios you list, I have to go with Moore because he is the closet to fulfilling his potential
Who is going to have the best year in he majors.
Devin Mesoraco
Garrett Richards
Ryan Lavarnway
Zack Cozart
Lance Lynn
Eduardo Sanchez
Tyler Skaggs?
Shelby Miller?
Yadi is my hero
for 2012
It would not surpise me to see Lynn do the best of all those guys. He does not have the highest upside by any means, but if you are thikning ONLY 2012, I would say Lynn, Mesoraco, and Cosart
i'd go Mesoraco, 'cause he'll get the most consistent playing time
which isn’t saying much because Dusty Baker is, well, Dusty Baker.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 4, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Mesoraco....
…considering the Dusty factor, what is the “safest” number of games started for Devin? 85? Lower? Dusty is one scary individual when it comes to young players….
formerly NeilLomaxFan
by BrothersGottaAndyHug on Feb 5, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
hager
Hager is a “hunch” guy. I think he can turn into a .280 hitter with doubles, some walks, and solid D.
I’m higher on him than most people though.
I like Barnes better.
No doubt some Yankees fans will consider it Bias.
Of course I also gave Montero a Grade A before the trade, so Red Sox fans thnk I’m biased too, lol
Gustavo Pierre
Most of the Ricciardi-era international signings have been woeful, but do you anticipate him “righting” himself? Can he stick at short?
Pierre
He is an extreme long shot at this point. Still young enough to develop, but his skills seem to be getting worse, not better. I don’t see any particular reason for optimism.
Tony Sanchez
What is the record for broken jaws by a minor leaguer? Do you think the latest one will have any impact on his career?
well it doesn't help
He’s supposed to be healthy now, and given the lack of details about the bar fight it is hard to know what to think. It might indicate a problem with judgment, or it could just indicate some combination of bad luck/wrong place/wrong time.
He needs a good year in 2012.
I got miller over bauer on the top 50
But it is close….2 vs. 3 on the list. Both are Grade A.
Darvish would be a Grade A but I don’t consider him a prospect in the classic sense. Too old, too established a talent. I would put him ahead of Bauer and Miller because he is ready now and they need a bit more time
Jorge Soler
Where do you think Jorge Soler signs?
someone with 1) lots of money 2) willing to take a risk on a raw tools guy
hmmm….who fits that pattern? There are rumors that the Red Sox are interested and that seems logical.
Maybe the Marlins will pony up the money. They like tools guys, the farm system is empty, he’s Cuban, and they are willing to spend dollars
Cubs
With a decent chunk of the recent Red Sox regime now living on the North Side, do you think they might be a player, especially since they seem to be in a bit of a rebuilding mode? Taking a bit of their philosophy from Boston to Chicago?
not impossible but aren't they linked more with Cespedes?
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
They were linked strongly with all 3, from what I've read.
Concepcion being the 3rd, of course.
i say the Braves are dark horse
due to the Organization’s experience with Cuban players (Y. Escobar and B. Pena) and International Signings (Salcedo). Plus, the Braves can afford to take a little time with him.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 4, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Harden
They will break his arm if that’s what it takes, trying him at SP.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 4, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
maybe
You could see Marte or Grossman in the second half. Perhaps Cole too. Morris, Welker and Wilson could help in bullpen from the beginning. SLEEPER: Jordy Mercer
Kyle McPherson
Seems to have a decent chance to crack the league’s least impressive rotation.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 4, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
I have a feeling
Miguel Cabrera’s name might pop up in the answer
Brandon Jacobs
Does Brandon Jacobs remind you of Matt Kemp-as-a-prospect? If not, who would he be most comparable to?
Love this one
I think I’m Jacobs’ biggest fan on here & I think he’s overlooked by many (including shameless Boston hometown myopic types somehow). It’s been established that Kemp was all too overlooked during his climb & I wonder if Jacobs will see a similar fate if he continues to improve.
I think Jacobs is almost definitely a corner outfielder (although far more athletic than some realize), but I think he is pretty similar to Kemp the prospect in some other ways. His improvement in conditioning & productive 2011 (first full season) color me optimistic overall & I doubt he stays similarly under the radar if he keeps hitting (even though he may be a trade chip in the end).
I'm not his biggest, but
I’ve been high on Jacobs since I saw him in high school. To me he immediately stood out on the diamond first for his size (in high school he was 20-30lbs heavier) and athleticism, but he had two skills that to me really seperate the tool athlete types that make it from the ones that don’t. That being his strong plate discipline and his ability to square up the ball. I’ve seen some great athletes attempt to play baseball (Reggie Abercrombie types) that failed because they swung at everything, couldn’t read pitches, and didn’t square the ball and make loud contact on a consistent basis. Jacobs had those skills despite being a football first kid that was baseball 3 months a year and football 9 months.
That all rings true
Thanks for weighing in. I agree with just about everything you said although I never saw him in HS; the hard contact he makes & polish (when considering his background) are positives to me.
jacobs
You could be onto something here….there are some strong parallels between the two. Less defensive value for Jacobs, but bats could be quite similar. Nice call.
Who do you see as the Mariners starting third baseman in 2013, barring a trade or free agent acquisition?
follow @casetines
If you were in charge of the Rangers,
would you ask Mike Olt to switch positions or try to trade him?
by Robert L. Bishop on Feb 3, 2012 11:47 AM EST reply actions
not John but if it were me...
Knowing the Rangers are running out of budget room, I’d let Olt get his feet wet in the majors as a utility guy and then listen for non-salary-dump offers on Beltre. If I like what I see of Olt and can get a reasonable trade for Beltre, then I free up some cash. If not, then I have to look at trading Olt or changing his position.
the Rangers plan to have him
get some reps at 1B in ST. I can see him breaking in as a UIF and then taking over at 3B. But he has to hit.
by RangerMad on Feb 3, 2012 12:44 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
olt is a really good 3B.
but it will be hard to salary-dump Beltre. rlwhite’s scenario seems reasonable to me.
Eibner
I believe you had liked him coming out of the draft last year, but soured on him (haven’t read the book) after an up / down injury based first pro year.
What is his ceiling, and is there a breakout this year given he stays healthy?
Thanks.
A second round draft pick in 2010 from the University of Arkansas, Brett Eibner had
a disappointing pro debut in ’11. He strained a thumb ligament in the second game of
the season, costing him two and a half months of playing time. When he returned in
mid-June, he struggled with contact issues the rest of the season and did not live up
to expectations. Eibner has excellent power and will take a walk, but scouts worry
that his swing is too long and he strikes out an awful lot. He is a good athlete and a
very fine defender in center field, but most teams preferred him as a pitcher coming
out of college and some scouts think he’ll end up back on the mound eventually. I
was an optimist heading into ’11, but his contact troubles were worse than I
expected. That said, getting further away from the thumb injury should help, and his upside is high enough that it is too soon to give up. I will cut him some slack with
the grade for one more year. Grade B-.
Drew Smyly
If everything broke right for him, what would be his upside?
"He don't want to walk you." -Sparky Anderson telling Kirk Gibson that Goose Gossage didn't want to walk Gibby just before he put it in the upper deck.
Check out my blog on the Detroit sports scene, national sports scene, and current hot topic events.
http://sportznutuncensored.blogspot.com/
Will either Erlin or Wieland start with the Padres this year?
What kind of line can we expect at the majors?
I expect you will see both at some point
Expect excellent K/BB ratios, but beyond that there are so many variables it is hard to say. Both have a reasonably good chance to be above-average pitchers in the short run, with long-term excellence possible.
But they are pitchers. They could also blow their arms out or regress in other ways
Not for nothing, but
Of that very good rotation heading to Tucson, the only one on the 40 man roster is also the only one with a track record of pitching at altitude with success… should a short-term need arise, don’t be surprised if the first name called is Juan Oramas.
by realitypolice on Feb 4, 2012 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
Rashun Dixon
He was hitting 255/343/406 in the first half of 2011. Not great numbers but OK for a 20 year old in high-A ball.
He collapsed in the second half to 234/293/357. His K-rate spiked up and BB-rate dropped.
Have you heard anything that helps explain why he cratered in the second half of last season?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Dixon
Well I had a vague report that his swing got out of whack and he started chasing breaking stuff again, but the bottom line is that Dixon is just a very raw player and his numbers in the Cal League, even in the first half, weren’t great at all.
Tools, youth…upside. HIgh risk of failure remains.
In 2013...
Darin Gorski will be performing in what capacity for the Mets?
by thehitonecafe on Feb 3, 2012 12:02 PM EST via mobile reply actions
what to look for in a pospect
What is the single most important factor for you when evaluating a pitcher in the minors? position player? Sorry if this is really 2 questions, and I understand that there are myriad factors that interrelate. Thanks — love the AQAs!
by dr. horrible's singalong on Feb 3, 2012 12:08 PM EST reply actions
oh, boy
There isn’t any one factor really…not trying to copout on you, but I just can’t seperate it even in theory.
If you are looking at stats, gotta go with strikeouts for pitchers.
Hitters….ugh. BB/K/PA ratio.
Thinking in terms of tools…again, how do you seperate? I like pitchers who throw strikes, but i also like 99 MPH fastballs.
Just impossible to say, as you mention they all interrelate.
thanks
i knew it was a hard question for me, but i hoped you might have a more clear read on it than me :). just trying to figure out how to more quickly sort out prospects!
by dr. horrible's singalong on Feb 3, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
I'm curious
Whether the pitch data (like swinging strikes in the zone percentage etc etc) could provide a golden ticket somehow. It is doubtful, but better than simple K% maybe.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 4, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
interesting idea
i must admit i haven’t looked much at pitch data — thanks for the lead!
by dr. horrible's singalong on Feb 5, 2012 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
Conception
Can you give me a legit reason why the Cubs gave him 7 mil and ML contract? The scouting reports don’t seem to support this at all. Thanks John.
scoutingthesally.com scouting service $17.95. Very cool service check it out.
Concepcion
I don’t know anything about him beyond the press reports. On my list of stuff to research in the coming days
Joe Ross
The true compensation for Whitson? No pro data as of yet but what do you expect/hope to see from him in his debut + future?
by polyrhythm07 on Feb 3, 2012 12:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Ross.
I would say upside of a number two starter. Which is pretty similar to what Whitson could develop into. Seems reasonable compensation to me.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
Grossman
Say he repeats his exact 2011 line this year at Double-A Altoona. Guesstimate his rank on the prospect list.
(If it’s easier, imagine this year had been at AA and guesstimate where he would be on this year’s top 100, although you’d have to imagine he had the identical line the year before at Bradenton to make it work). Thanks.
if he did that in AA
He’d be a B+ for me, although a low-end one
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
Blue Jays Question
What kind of year do you think Henderson Alvarez has this year with the Jays?
hmmm.
Have to go with the position player here, but I really do love Moore
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Jerry Sands
Is this the year where Sands finally gets regular playing time whether they move Eithier or not? Let the kid play!
dunno
Haven’t been keeping up on Dodgers major league roster machinations or rumors.
I do think Sands deserves a fair chance but he’s not that young and needs to make some noise now.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Campos
Where do you see Campos fitting into the Yankees system after the trade? ETA?
Campos
i expect he’ll begin the year at Low-A, with a promotion to High-A possible at midseason if he pitches well. I don’t think he will move exceptionally quickly….ETA would be 2014 at the earliest
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Bogaerts
Bogaerts, Top 10 prospect next year???
by rallyroundthefamily on Feb 3, 2012 12:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Captain Kirk
Moment of truth: Is Kirk Nieuwenhuis good enough to start in CF, or not?
well
He has to do a better job against LHP to be a full-time starter. But he has a broad range of skills and he should be productive at least as a platoon guy.
You don’t win pennants relying on KN to anchor your lineup, but he can be a valued part of a winning team.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
I think Jason Adam could have a huge impact
I am also not as down on Colon as some people. I know he didn’t have a great year in AA, but (forgive me) he looked quite good when i saw him in person, more like the player he was in college. He’s got that low strikeout rate that often marks a sleeper bat, and I think his glove is underrated by some folks
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Funny seeing that name in one of these.
I played high school ball with him.
They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.
- Benjamin Franklin
by JimCrankshaft on Feb 3, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Gattis was a 23rd round pick in 2010 from the University of Texas-Permian Basin,
which sounds like some sort of archeological dig. He was well regarded in high
school and was a high-profile Texas A&M recruit, but his life got off-track due to
problems with pot, anger management, and a knee injury. After a three-year layoff,
he returned to baseball in 2010 and got himself drafted. Gattis destroyed SouthAtlantic League pitching last year with a +36 percent OPS; however, he was very old
for the level at age 24. He’s not a great defensive catcher, throwing out just 23% of
runners and posting high error and passed ball rates. He’s a good human interest
story and has genuine power, but we need to see if he can replicate this kind of
hitting at higher levels before ranking him higher than a Grade C.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Lance Lynn
Do you see him as a future closer or future starter?
well
I think Lynn could be a very good, perhaps even excellent, starter, but it looks like he will slot into the bullpen for now as a setup guy.
Which isn’t a bad way to get his career going, the old Earl Weaver method of getting your feet wet first. For many teams he would already be pencilled in as the number four starter.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
Upside: a guy who hits .280 with 15 homers, some speed, and a great glove
He has to get the strike zone under control first, and texas league observers have makeup concerns
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Safest 2011 Pick
Safest or most likely to at least contribute at the major league level: Brandon Nimmo, Javier Baez, or Daniel Norris?
Rubby de la Rosa
What sort of a career do you see for Rubby given his recent TJ surgery?
that's a medical question
Outside my pay grade
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
rendon
Well he draws inevitable comps with Longoria and David Wright, but how about this: Dustin Pedroia AS A PURELY STATISTICAL COMP, not a physical one.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Any comps for Szczur?
He’s really not Juan Pierre 2.0 right?
too early for me to give a comp for szczur
some people have compared his skill set to Mike Trout, but he has nowhere near Trout’s level of polish even though Sz is older.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
On a gut level...
who do you feel is a guy that is either greatly overlooked or greatly overrated as a prospect
one guy I think could surprise is Alex Liddi.
I know he’s got that awful strikeout rate and normally that would scare me away from him, but he is one of those hunch players I guess
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
dellin betances
Do you think he will make as a starter?
A firm Maybe with this one
with the Yankees he probably ends up as a reliever in the short run but I think he has enough to start if given some patience
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
Jake Marisnick & Taijuan Walker
Are people sleeping on Marisnick a little bit? Do you think he can be an elite prospect this time next year?
What kind of a ceiling does Walker have. Is he going to be in the Miller/Moore class this time next year? Thanks.
Walker
Obviously not John, but I do believe Walker can get to that point.
Just the other day at Fanfest, Walker was speaking about how he worked a lot with his change-up this off season and how he really felt it had come a long ways. In my mind that was the biggest thing holding him up. We know about the fastball and the curve, if he develops that change-up its only a matter of time until he striking out Pujols. (Unless injury.)
Needs more consistency with the curve, as well.
It flashed plus, but the few times I saw him he relied a little too much on that great fastball.
Marisnick is already considered a premium prospect so I don’t see how he really overlooked
Walker already is too. I have Walker as the Number Six pitching prospect in baseball.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Alfredo Silverio?
Legit prospect or only the best in a shallow Dodgers system (for hitters)?
Thanks.
Oscar Taveras
Your best guess on his chances of reaching A- or A status after next year, thanks
Luc
Opus rules
taveras
Some people don’t like his swing but it looks fine to me, and he’s a decent athlete. I have him as a B+ right now. A- is certainly possible if he keeps hitting, which I think he will. Better than 50/50
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
that would depend on the exact scouting reports
IIRC, Redus had pretty solid tools although I don’t know how he was viewed when he was in the low minors.
B at least probably.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Profar
Where do you see him starting the year, any chance Double-A Frisco?
profar
Depends on how he looks in the spring.
I expect you will see him at Frisco this year, but whether that’s in April or August, don’t know. If It was me, I would send him to High-A but I tend to be conservative.
Martin Perez
From what I saw from TV, his fastball misses much fewer bats than his secondary pitches. Is this more like commend problem or scouts start to be worried about the quality of his fastball?
perez is weird
I have seen him have games where his fastball was hot and his secondaries sucked, and I have seen him in games where his fastball was flat and he had to rely on his secondaries, and I’ve seen him in games where nothing worked.
I think it’s an issue of command, lack of experience, and being pushed too quickly
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
but those games
where everything works makes him look like Kershaw.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 4, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Parker
30 starts, 9-12, 172 innings, 165 hits, 106/75 K/BB, 4.38 ERA
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
Jordy mercer
Saw you liked him as a sleeper contributor; what is his ceiling in MLB? No more than a Chase D’arnaud type, or does the power spike (and solid D at SS) portend the possibility of an average to above-average regular?
Redeemed.
mercer
don’t see him as an above-average regular for a long period, but rather a guy who shows some surprising power off the bench and the ability to play multiple positions
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Miller
I think his ceiling is just a tad higher, but I am not a Teheran-basher
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Michael Ynoa
What are his chances of becoming a MLB ace (or even a #2) given his injury history and age?
What is the likilihood you think Mike Olt could develop a bat that would make him worth keeping without making room at third base?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Olt can hit
Olt is Josh Willingham with the bat.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Jason Kipnis
Kipnis missed keeping rookie status by very little. Where would have have ranked if he kept his rookie status, both in terms of letter grade and rankings among top 50 hitters?
Thanks for the great work and looking forward to the book in the next couple days.
Gary Sanchez, how will his career end up?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter, Writer for On The Banks
sanchez
Well, I love his bat. He was supposed to be “Jesus Montero with a better glove” when the Yankees signed him, but his defense has been worse than projected, and he really irritated people with a bad work ethic in ’11.
He is young enough to overcome both of those issues. He has star-level ceiling but lots of questions still.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
Gerrit Cole
Why dont the stats match the stuff and how optimistic are you that he reaches his ceiling (top 15 starter in baseball)?
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
The first player picked in the 2011 draft, UCLA fireballer Gerrit Cole had an
enigmatic college career, utterly dominant at times but with overall results that were
sometimes less than expected. He signed for $8,000,000, too late to make his pro
debut, but he went to the Arizona Fall League. Aside from a memorably disastrous
outing in the Rising Stars game, he pitched well, posting a 16/4 K/BB in 15 innings,
allowing 10 hits, and living up to his reputation for blistering stuff. His heater has
been clocked as high as 102 MPH, hits 100 frequently, and worked consistently at
94-97 in college. He also has an excellent slider and an above-average changeup.
Cole works hard and, at his best, has the stuff and command of a number one starter.
Weird things happen with Cole, though. He’ll get hit surprisingly hard sometimes.
Scouts will sit there and stare at the "98s" on their radar guns, go "wow" when he
breaks off a nasty slider, whistle like a construction worker when he gets someone to
lunge at a changeup, and then wonder how he just got tagged for three runs. In
college it was easy to dismiss this as a result of the metal bat, although lessconventional
teammate Trevor Bauer usually didn’t have those sorts of problems.
Even with the occasional odd game, Cole is a great bet for success. Grade A.
Thanks
Great write up, although it makes me cringe a little cause i just shipped him out in my dynasty league… derek holland and gerrit cole for cliff lee, brandon league and starling marte
if every prospect gets that kind of write up im definitely buying the book
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
Trevor Plouffe and Eduardo Nunez
What do you foresee for both of them for the 2012 season? I think they are both intriguing for different reasons (Plouffe for his AAA numbers, Nunez for his speed + avg. potential, and in fantasy leagues they both have Shortstop eligibility for next year. Thanks John!
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 3, 2012 1:09 PM EST reply actions
Giavotella
Do you have hope that he will stick as the everyday starter this year for KC and what might peak years look like from him?
I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'
yes
yes I think there is hope for him to hold the job. If he gets the plate discipline he showed in the minors back, he can be a .280/.350/.420 guy I think. Though that park might hold him back a bit.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Who would you say is the best comp for Vincent Catricala?
Not in terms of his absolute ceiling, but for a mid-range projection.
"Baseball isn't the world's best distraction, but only because it's so easy to start a fire." --Jeff Sullivan
by The Ancient Mariner on Feb 3, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions
I guess I'm not too good at comps today becuase I keep drawing blanks
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
you want a mid-range
someone who hits .260 with moderate power
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
I'll throw out Scott Hatteberg
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 4, 2012 2:42 AM EST up reply actions
Jurickson Profar vs Elvis Andrus
If Profar fully develop in something special ( I mean still A/A- prospect after tenure in Triple-A), how will Rangers solve situation on SS? (trade/position swtich/could both Profar and Andrus play in same infield?)
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
yeah have to go with sniderlover here...there is just no way to predict that
Too many things can change.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
David Holmberg
What negatives are holding him back from being mentioned among the top-tierish pitching prospects?
he doesn't have a plus pitch, just some solid ones. control slipped in High-A as well
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
i'd guess
it’s somewhere between above average and plus. maybe, something like consistently above average, and flashes plus?
Whither Nick Franklin?
How’d he do in the AFL? Can he put the injuries behind him? What’s the outlook like for 2012?
Have you heard anything about Jesse Hahn?
I’m surprised he didn’t play at all last year. His recory must have been slow.
Dillon Maples
What do you think his ceiling is?
maples
Number 2 starter if his secondaries come along, or a strong 3.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
Twins Pitchers
Adrian Salcedo, Liam Hendricks, or Alex Wimmers. Who you got and why? Thanks!
You have to go with Hendricks now since he is ready. Wimmers is a big ??? after last year but I havent’ given up on him. And I like Salcedo too, lol.
All these guys can be inning-eating efficiency strike throwers, but they really need someone who can dominate a game too
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
Teoscar Hernandez
He’s one Astros prospect I really don’t much about, but he posted a very sexy line in rookie ball and seems like he could have some significant upside. Do you have any info on him/what do you think of him?
point of order
I don’t consider the DSL rookie ball. It isn’t.
As for Teoscar, I don’t know much about him
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
Nods, my mistake.
I didn’t remember what league he was in exactly and didn’t take the time to look it up so I just threw the rookie ball blanket over it.
no prob. don't sweat it
I’m fighting a rearguard action that I will lose about the DSL and VSL anyway. People want more and more information about players at those levels, and most of the time there just isn’t much. That will change but we are in a transitional phase right now.
It bugs me that they started adding those stats into a player’s professional career lines. It makes sense in one way since they have signed professional contracts, but from my POV as an analyst, it makes it VERY difficult at times. How do you compare a 17-yearoold playing in the DSL to some 17 year old who is a high school junior playing in showcase games?
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
Future Leadoff Hitters
Which prospects have the greatest liklihood of becoming big-league leadoff men? Which one has the highest ceiling?
Adam Duvall?
What is his potential/likely outcome?
by mattp31 on Feb 3, 2012 1:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions
utility guy with a solid bat
But we need to see him above Low-A. Scouts don’t like him much and aren’t convinced his swing will work at higher levels
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Josh Bell/Lindor/Soler/Springer
I realize we don’t have much data (if any) on some of these guys, but how do you rank them if you are buying a lotto ticket for highest ceiling?
Not John
But I’m an Astros fan, and still think the answer to that question is fairly easily J. Bell.
Thanks, but looking for a ranking of all those players.
And you seem to have left position/defense out of the equation.
Bell just seems like he has elite potential at the plate
And he can be a cannon arm guy in RF. Soler is intriguing but I don’t really think he can be in the conversation with the other three until we see what he can do stateside. Lindor should be a good defender but I don’t buy into his bat much at all, I see him as an above average regular but not a star. I love Springer but he doesn’t have the raw power of Bell, and I think Bell has more potential as a pure hitter as well, even though he may not have as good a chance at reaching it
I’m not going to put Soler on a list like that right now.
Bell probably but I like all these guys.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
Which group would you take,
Parker, Gray, Cole, Peacock
or
Walker, Hultzen, Paxton?
"Even if the plane is on autopilot, I don't want a monkey in the cockpit" - ilikeike
hmmm
A-/strong B/B+/strong B
vs
A-/A-/A-
Given the attrition rate even among elite pitching prospects I could go with 1, given that both the Bs are almost B+.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
really?
oakland’s over seattle’s? i’m an a’s fan and even that surprised me, but a great surprise nonetheless!
plus oakland has the sleepers like straily and griffin, for whatever reason, i closely followed straily last year and feel like he could be a solid contributor
Snoochies
well I said "could"
i’d have to think about it.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
and yes
and yes I am hedging, because I know how these things work, and someone will post on the internet “Sickels Likes Oakland Prospects Better Than Seattle’s” which isn’t really true and would misstate my position.
My position is that the Mariners trio has a higher upside, but Oakland isn’t far behind, there are four of them instead of three, and given pitcher attrition quantity is a quality of its own
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Gerardo Concepcion
With the Cubs signing Concepcion to a major league contract, they don’t have many years for him to develop before he must be called up. How close is he to being major league ready?
With the quality and quantity of young arms in the Rockies rotation
How do you think it eventually performs, and how what rotation would you go with?
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
?
I don’t think I understand the question
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
I believe he's asking
How do you think the young arms perform this year in the majors and what rotation do you think the Rockies will go with to start the season?
Adam Eaton
Ultimately, what do you see in Adam Eaton in terms of skills and an ability to continue to defy scouting reports and become a major league regular outfielder?
eaton
In the end i don’t think he shows quite enough home run power to be an everyday corner outfielder. But I expect he will have a long career.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
The only question that matters
is whether he has enough bat for DH. It should be a felony for the man to even own a baseball glove.
by realitypolice on Feb 4, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Casey Crosby
What % would you put on his chance to stick as a starter?
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
lol
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 4, 2012 2:46 AM EST up reply actions
Whos prospect statis do you see rising tbe most
Which five players out of last years draft, and not taken in the first round, do you see having the largest rise in prospect status?
too broad
too broad a question for this format. Would be good for a larger article
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Your gut feeling
Does Tyler Matzek have a bounceback season in 2012, given that his performance improved significantly after returning to his HS pitching mechanics? Or does the still absymal control spell his doom as a prospect?
Jose Osuna
What is his floor and ceiling? Will his ceiling be something like Frank Thomas (in regards to power and patience)? Does he really end up at 1st base due to his limited defense?
I love Osuna
But the Big Hurt comparison (even for a ceiling) is just astronomical for a guy in the Gulf Coast League IMO.
FWIW, I do think he’s going to be limited to first from here on out and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 3, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Osuna
No way I would put a Hall of Fame ceiling on Osuna.
Floor: can’t hit Double-A pitching
Ceiling: 290/.350/.500
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
Ranking these pitchers based on ceiling
Syndergaard, Walker, Carlos Martinez, AJ Cole.
Not John
My personal opinion and far from being a prospect evaluator is Cole, Walker, Martinez and Syndergaard
UPSIDE??
Yikes, I think Carlos Martinez, followed very closely by Walker are the top two for sure. Then Cole, then Syndergaard.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
nothing but upside
I would go martinez, walker, cole, syndergaard
However, ALL of them have extremely impressive upsides.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Do you see any of the Padres' prospects
as having the potential to develop into an A- or A prospect?
A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"
by Zach (maestro876) on Feb 3, 2012 1:55 PM EST reply actions
rymer liriano or starling marte
from a purely fantasy baseball perspective (ie. defense doesnt matter and steals are more important), starling marte or rymer liriano? it would be preferable if you could rank them based both on likely outcome and upside potential. thanks!
Liriano's the obvious upside play.
Better power (based on scouting reports), similar speed, much better approach. Both are risky; Liriano for his distance from the majors, Marte for his terrible approach at the plate. The question is, do you want the guy who could play in the majors this September, or the better prospect who’s 2-3 years away?
If 5X5 or similar format
I agree with PM; it’s pretty much got to be Liriano unless you have something close to an immediate roster need.
Liriano
But if you need help sooner, Marte
both are risky.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
Starling Marte reminds me of Austin Jackson, and not in a good way.
A – Jax while an actually decent player and OF is only worthwile because of his tremendous D. A-Jax has got to be one of the worst leadoff hitters in baseball. that said he’d be fine in the 6th or 7th hole in the order and maybe thats what Marte will be like for Pittsburgh (they don’t need a leadoff guy right?)
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 4, 2012 2:49 AM EST up reply actions
The worst leadoff hitters of 2011.
Jackson isn’t that far off Drew Stubbs’ career OBP pace.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 4, 2012 8:07 AM EST up reply actions
Tyler Saladino
Good power and approach as an age-appropriate high-A shortstop that has a decent chance to stick at the position. You have him higher on the White Sox list than any other outlet I’ve seen. What is the argument against him that lands him so low on other lists, and why do you think it’s wrong?
he's not special. the problem is the white sox just don't have a lot of prospects
A successful Sleeper Alert! pick last year, Saladino was a seventh round pick in ’10
out of Oral Roberts. Although his physical tools are just average, he makes the mostof them, providing solid power due to above-average bat speed and adequate strike
zone judgment. He was one of the most productive hitters in the Carolina League last
year with a 21 percent OPS, although opinions differ about how his bat will hold up
against better competition. Scouts rate Saladino’s defensive tools as average. He has
a strong arm but his range is just, well, average. However, he’s fundamentally sound
and avoids stupid mistakes. I don’t know if Saladino will become a potential regular
or not, but at worst he should be a fine utility player with some pop in his bat. If he
keeps hitting well in Double-A, you can boost this rating a notch. Grade C.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Martin Perez and Manny Banuelos
Who has a better career?
The scouting report on Salty is that he’s a pampered, curly-haired motherfuck who didn’t earn his stripes. He has trouble throwing the ball back to the pitcher, claims to be a switch-hitter and is piss-poor in the clutch.
Have fun!
by oc on Jul 31, 2010 4:17 PM CDT
in the book I have Perez at 38 and Banuelos at 40
However I think Banuelos is safer. Perez has higher upside but Banuelos is more likely to reach his, and his own upside is considerable
I might flip those when I do the Top 100 later this month
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
A's pitchers ETA
If you ruled the world (and A’s prospect timetables) when would Gray, Peacock, Milone and Parker make their first starts at the Coliseum?
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
ETAs if I am dictator
Gray: 2013 sometime
Peacock: mid-season 2012 after 10-12 Triple-A starts
Milone: April 2012
Parker: mid-season 2012 after 10-12 Triple-A starts
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Mike Trout for Bryce Harper
do you feel like this would be an even trade? The Nats get a CF with tools to be a star and with a skill set that plays better in the NL. The Angels get the lefthanded power bat they desperately need.
go long with extenze...i do
hmmm
Well both are Grade A but I regard Harper as a generational talent and Trout isn’t QUITE that.
I doubt I would do it if I was Washington
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
Generational talent
I’ve been hearing this word more in the past few years. What do you have in mind when you use it? A-Rod’s a generational talent, but not, say, Matt Kemp?
Generational Talent
to me is only reserved for the A-Rod, Griffey, and Ruth’s of the world. An MVP caliber player is not even a generational talent they are record breaking, HoF talents.
Francisco Martinez
Seattle’s 3B in 2014 or someone else? What can you tell me about “this” FMart?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
well....
Well the couple of times I’ve seen him he looked like a slick fielder but was lost at the plate.
The numbers indicate he made progress in 2011 and he’s quite young. He will get a shot in 2013 I bet if Liddi or Seager or someone else doesn’t take it.
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
Ryan Roberts
What kind of prospect was he? Do you think the kind of power/patience production he had last year is sustainable?
he wasn't a hot prospect but more of a solid org guy who made good
I think 2011 was his peak.
That said he would be a good topic to study for a larger article as an example of a late bloomer
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
Gose versus Villar
Why is Anthony Gose a B+ prospect while Jonathan Villar is a B-? They’re statistically similar—Villar has been a bit worse offensively but plays a more valuable defensive position—and both reportedly have gold glove kind of potential at their respective positions.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
because I am more confident Gose will hit than I am Villar will
and I’m not supremely confident in Gose
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
I get it--the gap still seems too wide based on your own descriptions of the prospects, though
You said Gose had Grade A tools and C+ skills, while Villar has Grade A tools and grade C skills. Doesn’t that suggest the difference of 1/3 of a grade rather than 2/3 of a grade?
Maybe I’m nitpicking, although the difference between a B+ prospect and a B- prospect is what, the difference between top 50 and top 250? So then again, maybe not.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
well keep in mind
that I got dragged kicking and screaming into giving Gose a B+ and probably gave in to peer pressure on that one.
That's fair
I would probably give him a B myself, and Villar a B-. For some reason the community is incredibly high on Gose.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I still think you should stick by your original grade with Gose
You’re the expert, not the other fans here, as much as they may think themselves experts. Despite the high upside, your B+ hitters in general have a very good chance of being successful MLBers (I’m thinking Jason Kipnis kind of guys.) I hope Gose continues to improve, and things look promising, but it’s hard to learn how to put the bat on the ball.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 4, 2012 7:26 AM EST up reply actions
community
It wasn’t so much the community but what other sources and people I trust were saying too.
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Where do you sit at a game?
I know scouts sit behind home plate to watch a game but any advantage to sitting elsewhere?
game
I start off behind home plate, usually stay there for a few innings. Then I wander around the ballpark and get as many different angles as i can.
I think there are tons of advantages seeing the game from different perspectives. I have often noticed the older scouts do this, while the younger ones tend to sit behind home plate the whole game and log stuff into their Ipads or laptops.
I have seen games where the scouts are paying more attention to what they are logging into their computers than watching the players.
This is part of the reason that I do not bring my computer to the ballpark and don’t do much Twittering. Electronics are much more of a distraction for me than an asset.
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Your routine sounds very similar to what I’ve read about what Dick Tidrow, the Giants pitching guru, does when he’s scouting a pitcher.
So, do you take handwritten notes during the games, or do you keep it all in your memory and write your observations down after the game?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
routine
I think this is part of the reason I am better at evaluating pitchers than hitters. With a pitcher, if I focus on him for a game, I see his pitches/delivery/actions on the mound dozens or 100 times in a game from multiple angles.
For a hitter, I might see his swing only once or twice. Even watching a hitter over more than one game gives you a smaller visual sample than you’ll get from a pitcher. Now, with video you can see a guy’s swing over and over again, but it still matters.
I am a visual learner and my memory is photographic (for baseball players anyway) and if I see something I seldom forget it. I also take handwritten notes.
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
gun
I have my own radar gun although I don’t always carry it. I can get the gun readings if necessary, and I also like watching a pitcher wihtout knowing what the radar is saying. Helps me assess the movement on his pitches without being subconsciously impacted by what the radar is saying.
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you 100% on pitchers vs. hitters evaluation. I also like to move around to get several different angles during a game, and I find it a lot easier to evaluate a pitcher at a game than a hitter. I find that I can evaluate a hitter much better by watching a good quality video clip than I can by seeing him in person. The main thing that I can’t pick up on a hitter through video is the sound of the ball hitting his bat (it’s an important factor and you can only get the true impression by hearing it in person) and certain ideosynchracies in the geometry of his swing.
I used to take a notebook with me to games, but a few years back I started using one of those small handheld digital voice recorders. I can talk a lot faster than I can write, and I don’t have to take my eyes off of the action while I record my comments. After the game I listen to a playback and flesh out my perceptions of the prospects while I type up a hard copy for my records.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
recorder
I used to have a little tape recorder thingie (this was before digital media really got going) but it broke and I never replaced it. Perhaps trying a digital device could be worthwhile again.
hitters
On the other hand, sometimes one game IS enough for a hitter.
I will never forget seeing Brett Lawrie play in Omaha last spring. Just watching that one game, I could tell he had it.…he was special.
by John Sickels on Feb 4, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
favorite subjects
FAVORITES: History, English, Comparative Religions
LEAST FAVORITE: Physics, mathematics, chemistry, gym
yes
I was terrible at it too. My inability to handle advanced math crippled me in physics and chemistry. Even though I understood the principles and could picture what was going on in my mind, my inability to do the math effectively hurt my grades pretty bad. I could explain a principle in words, but not in numbers.
On the other hand, I was excellent in geometry and trigonometry. But basic algebra was very tough for me.
I understand it better now but I will always be a humanities guy.
math
I had a horrible math teacher in 9th grade which did not help. He had no patience with any student who didn’t grasp something immediately.
Sad
That’s really sad, John – and I don’t mean in a pathetic sort of way – especially since I believe that grasping the concepts in physics and chemistry is the biggest hurdle to overcome. And I say this having gotten a degree in physics and working alongside chemical engineers.
While I do believe that all students have raw strengths and weaknesses, in no way should that determine, to borrow terms used often here, their ceilings or floors, academically. Any numbnut who would pressure a student to perform under that type of scrutiny is hopefully retired, or should be fired.
That said, don’t get me wrong – I’m very happy that you found you rcalling, and so are we!
wel
My 10th grade math teacher was excellent, and the ones I had after that OK. I also had a good chemistry teacher, but my physics teacher was horrid.
Physics was frustrating. I remember reading the text and being able to picture things in my mind just fine and having a grasp of it, but then it came time for the math to prove it, and my mind would go numb.
In retrospect, I had a complex or mental block about it.
The main negative it had on my future was that it ruined any chance I had to be a meterologist, which is what I originally wanted to do.
However, I am happy with the way things worked out, lol
by John Sickels on Feb 3, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
Rendon or Profar?
I have picks 1 & 2 & 4 in my league’s prospect draft. Darvish & Profar were my targets for 1 + 2. Found out owner with pick 3 is planning to take Rendon, who I was going to take 4th. Should I stay the course & possibly miss on Rendon (take Arenado instead)? Or is Rendon the better pick over Profar?
by Flips on Feb 3, 2012 4:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Probably depends on whether you want help sooner or later
Rendon if healthy can probably reach the majors sooner than Profar, so if you’re in kind of a “win soon” mode, I would go Darvish/Rendon, and then pick whoever’s left of Profar/Arendado. Profar is further down the line.
Rendon hasn't played a single inning of professional baseball.
Considering his injuries, poor performance, and the fact that five teams passed on the one-time consensus #1 pick, I’d be extremely cautious. Get Darvish, Profar (who should end up being better than Rendon anyway), and Arenado, who has way less risk and similar upside.
I know the Q&A is closed
but this is likely to be a heavily trafficked thread and I was just wondering if any of the posters had any insight on why baseball scouts use a scale that goes up to 80 instead of 100? It always struck me as odd. Almost like the first scout to use it was trying to sell his team on one of his prospects and was telling the team the player had an elite arm. When the team asked him why his written scouting report only graded his arm as a 75, he shrugged and said ‘Ummm…my scale only goes to 80.’
i found this about hockey which also uses the 20 to 80 scale
You may read this and wonder why the scale goes from 20 to 80 and not from 0 to 100. Well, simply put, it’s because of standard deviation. To those mathematically deprived, it means that according to a normal distribution of talent 2/3rds of the players should fall between 40 and 60, with the overwhelming majority falling between 30 and 70. It’s a proven way to make sure the average players and varying notches are spread out well enough but not too much. While the theory stems from standard deviation, not all the tools have a perfectly normal distribution. Many more players have an 80 physical game, and very few have an 80 skating or an 80 shot.
by karreemofwheat on Feb 3, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The scale is centred on 50, with each 10 points representing one standard deviation from the mean…so to get to 100, you’re talking 5 standard deviations above average. At 80, 99.7% of a population will be within three standard deviations, meaning only 0.3% will be outside, of which half will be above and half below, so only 0.15% of a population (15 out of 10,000) will be at or above an 80 grade. That’s why an 80 grade should be very rare. At 100, 99.999943% of a population will be within 5 standard deviations, meaning only about 6 out of 10-million million would be at this level or level (only 3 of whom would be above, the others would be zero). And keep in mind, the 20-80 scale is applied to the population of baseball prospects, not the general population, so it’s already decscribing players with well-above average baseball skill. So you’d be talking about 3 in 10-million baseball prospects getting a 100 grade, which is just not meaningful.
Now, as to why it’s centred on 50 and uses 10 point increments to represent a standard deviation – thats entirely random, just a stadnard that evolved. It could just as easily be centred on 100, with jumps of 20, in which case we;d talk of 160 being rare talent and 40 as abysmal.
by MjwW on Feb 3, 2012 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Also, this is why you don't hear about a 90 tool either
Theoretically, it’s possible. But only about 1 in 30,000 baseball prospects would have this 90 tool, so it’s just not a meaningful descriptor.
this sounds all well and good and logical
but do people really use it like this? do anyone’s evaluations actually have a normal distribution?
Well, there's a sellection bias
If a scout or talent evaluator sees 100 guys, by defintion some of them will be 20s, and half will be below average – they’re not really prospects. You won’t hear about them. The broader takeway is, 80 is a descriptor that should be used very sparingly, 70 represents a fairly good talent (about 3 guys in a 100 should be 70s – remember this includes all prospects, including guys toiling in the bottom of the minors) and 60 should describe about 14 guys in 100 (17 less the 3 graded 70s, s about 17 at 60 or higher)
The biggest problem I have with the 20-80 scale
is that we are really only seeing a little more than half the scale by the time a player becomes a potential MLB prospect. That means that really the outliers of an 80 should be about 1 1/2 times more prevalent than they actually are. So there are probably a few more “80” grades out there than what people give out.
The reality and the idea of the exclusivity of the 80 grade really don’t quite match up. With the assumption that all of this follows the normal curve, we should be able to make some approximations. As it is there are around 5k players in the minors. If you split them 50-50 between pitching and hititng you should be able to find approximately 12 players for each potential category that should have an 80 grade…
Needless to say, people tend to be ultra conservative on those grades and so instead you only see a handful each year.
We could get into looking at this through the lenses of nonparametric stats or attempting to fit the player’s abilities under different distributions, but most likely nobody else is interested.
JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook
LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"
A couple thoughts
First, as I understand it, grades are often given to individual tools, not to overall players. So it’s unlikely there would ever be an 80 grade on a player, because you’d need all 80 tools.
Second, I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers in your hypotheticals. Remember that only 15 out of every 10,000 will be three standard deviations above the curve (and 15 three standards below in a uniform distribution). If there were 5,000 MiLB players, that would mean 7-8 80 grades between pitchers and hitters. Even if we double that to 10,000 to account for baseball prospect who don’t make it to the minors, we’re still only talking 15 total (you suggested 1.5 times, which would give around 10 between hitters and pitchers).
So basically, assuming a 50/50 distributiion of pitchers and hitters, this would imply that for hitters there are about 5-8 players with each of the tools – 80 hit tool, 80 power, etc. Likewise, for pitchers, around 5-8 80 fastballs, curveballs etc.
Grades are given to tools
though some people often compile an average to stick on the player.
As for not hearing about lots of 80 grade tools, Kevin Goldstein said in one of his podcasts (one of the earlier ones) that he talks to plenty of scouts who see 80 grade tools, especially at the lower levels. It’s just guys with 80 grade speed who have 20 hit and 20 power tools or guys with 80 gloves and the same no bat problem. These guys are often one trick ponies that are non-prospects, so you don’t hear about them, but bring enough to the table for teams to take a chance on drafting and let fill roster positions.
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Ha
Literally just talked about this in stats class yesterday so I find it kind of funny to find a real world application so fast. I guess math really isn’t all that useless lol.
I'm pretty sure this is also the reasoning behind the SAT scores
I know you young’uns all take the ACTs these days, but in my day we took SAT’s, which are also on the 20-80 scale (well, 200-800 for verbal and 200-800 for math. More zeroes creates a false sense of precision, and all that.)
A lot of us still take the SAT's.
In my situation I will have taken both by the end of the year. For you oldies it now had 3 parts, including a writing section. 2400 is the new high.
Excellent
These AQA’s are so informative and much appreciated John. Thanks a lot for all you do!
by raygie on Feb 4, 2012 1:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
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