The Top 30 Positions Players in Baseball: How They Were Seen as Prospects
by John Sickels on Feb 1, 2012 2:00 PM EST
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The Top 30 Position Players in Baseball: How They Were Seen as Prospects
This is the season for prospect lists. I thought I would take a trip through the wayback machine and write a prospect list of a different sort, taking the Top 30 Position Players in Baseball (in 2011 as measured by Fangraphs WAR) and looking at how they were rated as prospects. I did a similar list for pitchers on Monday.
Grades are from the STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook (1996 through 2002) and the Baseball Prospect Book (2003 through 2011)
First, keep in mind how I define grades.
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys.Some don't make it at all.
1) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox, 9.4 WAR: 2006: Grade B; 2007: Grade B+; 2008: Grade A-.
2) Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers, 8.7 WAR: 2005: Grade C+ (with "very great upside); 2006: Grade C+ (with high upside)
3) Jose Bautista, OF-3B, Blue Jays, 8.3 WAR: 2002: Grade C; 2003: Grade B-; 2004: Grade C (lost most of '03 to injuries then picked in Rule 5); 2005: Grade C (got just 88 at-bats in '04); 2006: Grade C+.
4) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox, 8.0 WAR: 2005: Grade B; 2006: Grade B+; 2007: Grade B
5) Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers, 7.8 WAR: 2006: Grade B+; 2007: Grade A-
6) Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers, 7.7 WAR: 2005: Grade B+; 2006: Grade B
7) Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers, 7.3 WAR: 2001: Grade B; 2002: Grade B+; 2003: Grade A-
8) Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees, 7.0 WAR: 2003: Grade B; 2004: Grade B-; 2005: Grade B
9) Alex Gordon, OF, Royals, 6.9 WAR: 2006: Grade A; 2007: Grade A
10) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds, 6.9 WAR: 2005: Grade B+; 2006: Grade C+; 2007: Grade B+; 2008: Grade A-
11) Ben Zobrist, INF, Rays, 6.6 WAR: 2005: Grade B; 2006: Grade B-
12) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox, 6.6 WAR: 2001: Grade B; 2002: Grade A-; 2003: Grade A-; 2004: Grade B; 2005: Grade B;
13) Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks, 6.4 WAR: 2006: Grade A-; 2007: Grade A-
14) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies, 6.3 WAR: 2006: Grade B+; 2007: Grade A-
15) Jose Reyes, SS, Mets, 6.2 WAR: 2001: Grade C; 2002: Grade B+; 2003: Grade A
16) Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays, 6.1 WAR: 2007: Grade A-; 2008: Grade A
17) Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds, 6.0 WAR: 2000: Grade C (with higher potential); 2001: Grade B-; 2002: Grade B+; 2003: Grade A.
18) Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies, 5.9 WAR: 2000: Grade C; 2001: Grade C; 2002: Grade C; 2003: Grade C; 2004: Grade C; 2005: Grade C; 2006: Grade C+. Didn't do much with the bat until sudden power burst in 2004 which I didn't buy into at the time.
19) Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels, 5.8 WAR: 2004: Grade C+; 2005: Grade B+; 2006: Grade A-.
20) Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers, 5.7 WAR: 1997: Grade A-; 1998: Grade A
21) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates, 5.7 WAR: 2006: Grade B+; 2007: Grade A-; 2008: Grade A-
22) Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees, 5.6 WAR: 2002: Grade C; 2003: Grade C; 2004: Grade C+; 2005: Grade B-. I was definitely too low on him.
23) Alex Avila, C, Tigers, 5.5 WAR: 2009: Grade C+ (with sleeper notes); 2010: Grade B.
24) Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers, 5.5 WAR: 2003: Grade B; 2004: Grade A-; 2005: Grade A-; 2006: Grade A-
25) Jhonny Peralta, Tigers, 5.2 WAR: 2001: Grade C; 2002: Grade C; 2003: Grade B
26) Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees, 5.1 WAR: 2006: Grade C+; 2007: Grade C+; 2008: Grade C+; 2009: Grade C. I thought he would be a good backup outfielder but I didn't see him as a full-time regular.
27) Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals, 5.1 WAR: 2001: Grade A-
28) Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals, 5.0 WAR: 1999: Grade C; 2000: Grade C+; 2001: Grade C; 2002: Grade C (hit well in '01 but was injured half of year); 2003: Grade C; 2004: Grade C. Grades look terrible now, but they made sense at the time. He showed some tools but never hit really well beyond rookie ball, slugging below .400 three out of five years in the high minors.
29) Lance Berkman, OF, Cardinals, 5.0 WAR: 1998: Grade B+; 1999: Grade A-; 2000: Grade B+ (there was some uncertainty about knee injury)
30) Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox, 4.9 WAR: Went directly to majors after signing out of Cuba.
Most of the top position players were also top prospects, but the anomalies are interesting.
**Jose Bautista had a weird career path punctuated by erratic performance, injuries, and a lost Rule 5 season.
**Matt Kemp's tools were obvious but he had significant plate discipline issues in the low minors. His big breakthrough was in 2006 and he would have been probably a Grade A- entering 2007, but he exceeded rookie qualifications so I didn't grade him.
**Matt Holliday, like Kemp, was a tools player who figured out how to turn those tools into skills on the field. His minor league career was unimpressive until a sudden breakout in 2004 at age 24.
**Victorino and Gardner looked like reserve outfielders to me.
**I was just flat wrong about Cano. I didn't think his defense was very good and his hitting was erratic enough in the minors to keep me skeptical.
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Interesting to see that Shane Victorino hung around in the minors and retained prospect eligibility for so long, in retrospect. I wonder if anybody at all foresaw him becoming a top center fielder at the big league level.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 1, 2012 2:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Did you set a lower limit for PA/G last year?
Mike Napoli and Pablo Sandoval are missing, they should be 21/22 and 24/25 respectively.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Go Roger Kieschnick! #4 Giants Prospect for 2010. (#18 for 2011) And son, please continue to break scoreboards on your way to San Francisco.
That link has only "qualified" players listed
You have to manually set the min PA to 0. Pretty amazing that they put up that kinda WAR without meeting PA qualifications
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Wow I didn't want to declare WAR on you
I just thought I was helping
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
by A'sFanDFW on Feb 1, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow individual posts too. Didn’t want to call up anything either, thanks for the in depth articles.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Go Roger Kieschnick! #4 Giants Prospect for 2010. (#18 for 2011) And son, please continue to break scoreboards on your way to San Francisco.
i really enjoy reading these posts
not to sound overly critical
but i think this list tangentially demonstrates something that i think you mentioned in another retrospective article, about how you felt more comfortable predicting future pitcher performance than future position player performance
Data Driven
Pitching skills are easier to measure (velocity, control, movement), and they evolve more linearly. Hitter development is mostly mental, and defensive metrics are entirely subjective, making them more difficult to project.
Any intellectually honest observer is going to find it easier to evaluate pitchers than hitters. If you are nothing else, you are intellectually honest.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 2, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Instincts
Also, hitting is more instinctive. Also more difficult to project.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 2, 2012 3:10 AM EST up reply actions
completely random
and maybe inappropriately offtopic
but speaking from a Pirates fan standpoint, who would you (relatively reasonably, but still taking into account hometown franchise player premium) want in return from the Dbacks in a trade? you can feel as creative as you want in combining major league and minor leaguers
maybe I'm reading too much into your comment...
but are you upset with Chris Young in CF?
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Feb 2, 2012 1:49 AM EST up reply actions
you're reading too much into the comment
i love Chris Young (though, i also think we’ll be trading him away sometime in the next couple of years)
it’s mostly just out of curiousity.
from my perspective as a Pirates fan
It would take more than a reasonable offer for me to trade McCutchen. I pretty much agree with McCutchenIsTheTruth’s post here; nobody is going to make the kind of offer I’d accept.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 2, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
I was just flat wrong about Cano.
" I didn’t think his defense was very good and his hitting was erratic enough in the minors to keep me skeptical."
IIRC a lot of other touts/sites were on a similar path.
Not enough glove for 2B or enough bat for 3B was one of the more common sentiments.
Sometimes, as Joquin Andujar reminded us, baseball can be summed up in just one word: Youneverknow
Based upon his negative UZR scores
in 6 out of the last 7 years…the “not enough glove” comment may be somewhat valid
'somewhat valid'
If only the above metric could rise to the above description at some point. Not trying to detract from your point about Robinson Cano per se, but to call UZR ‘flawed’ is an understatement.
Matt Holliday
is the comp that won’t go away. Any toolsy prospect in the Rockies system with poor stats cannot be written off without the inevitable “but Matt Holliday!” The truth is few prospects who trail Corey Sullivan-types in SLG in AA don’t go on to be stars, much less starters. Your grades were certainly fair for him.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 1, 2012 7:14 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Holliday is the lone Rockies' prospect who ever threw me an unhittable curve
I remember thinking at the time, since it was popular then for football/baseball athletes, he should give up baseball and be a college football player at a premium position – quarterback. He could have gone to any school, almost, and likely have been a star. Goes to show you, if you love something and refuse to quit, what can happen. I never saw the .300 batting average coming (outside of Denver, even) or the home run power.
While I still see him as the exception, it was a valuable lesson in predicting prospects’ futures.
Colorado Rockies’ Prospects Report
Rockies’ Analyst
P.S. It seems Matt Kemp was also an exception. Alex Gordon, on the other hand, has not lived up to his forecast but still might, as he really developed in 2011 with apparent room for still more growth.
Yankee prospects
God, so overrated.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
You beat me to it.
Maybe, just maybe, some highly regarded prospects struggle (Hughes, Joba, Ian Kennedy, even though IPK was not really “highly touted”) and some not so highly regarded prospects catch people off guard (Cano, Gardner, Nova, Robertson, Mo, Posada, Pettite, Clippard, Melancon). Maybe we can get past the whole “every Yankee prospect is a product of the hype machine” bull?
Or maybe we should do what alskor and others have suggested...
…look at the Yankee prospects that don’t get the Yankee over-hype with more scrutiny.
Also, lets not get too mad here. There is usually only one Yankee prospect that gets the ridiculous hype in any given year. Others are relatively ignored, though sometimes more than one can be spotlighted.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 2, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
That can be said...
for a Boston hitter, a Braves pitcher or just about any other prospect. The one’s accused of being “overhyped” are Hughes and Joba mostly and if you look at their career minor league numbers and in Joba’s case, his entire 2006 season from low A to the majors, coupled with his stuff, they were both worthy of every bit of hype. Just because a prospect doesn’t fill expectations doesn’t mean they weren’t deserving of their press.
Kemp
Not a knock on John, as almost everyone missed him, but a 20-year-old in the FSL who puts up a .263 ISO and with great athleticism is an easy B grade, despite the bad plate discipline. How was he so overlooked by everyone?
kemp
He wasn’t a big draft pick for one thing. Didn’t have a lot of hype.
by John Sickels on Feb 1, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
or....
We can just rank everyone as a straight A grade and then out retrospectives will look great! It is equally important to make a list of all the overrated prospects that never sniff a regular role.
He isn't saying that
He is just pointing out that Kemp was a toolshed who had a great ISO. No need to get snarky as he was polite in his inquiry.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 1, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
Are you using the STATS Scouting Notebook grades pre-Baseball Prospect Book
because you determined the grades for that book too? Or rather because that book used the grading scheme that you later adopted when you started producing the Baseball Prospect Book?
Because I wrote that book
Eddie Epstein wrote the 1995 edition but I took over in 1996 and wrote that book until 2002, when it was discontinued by the publisher. I started writing my own book in 2003.
by John Sickels on Feb 2, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
There is no such thing as a position prospect?
Just kidding….
Clearly this list has more volatility in the grades than the pitcher list did. John may have been too low on Cano and Kemp, but we all were at the time.
Hopefully this debunks the myth that pitchers are harder to grade.
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