How Mike Napoli Was Seen as a Prospect

by John Sickels on Feb 2, 2012 2:00 PM EST

Mike Napoli as a Prospect

It was pointed out yesterday that Mike Napoli and Pablo Sandoval should have been included in the list of top position players in 2011 by WAR.

They didn't show up on the Fangraphs list I was using because I hadn't set the "plate appearance" screen to zero. Anyway, Napoli had a WAR of 5.6 last year and Sandoval at 5.5, so let's take a look at how they rated as prospects, beginning with Napoli. Sandoval will follow in a separate post.

Mike Napoli: Napoli was a 17^th round pick in 2000 by the Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels, from high school in Cooper City, Florida. He played just 10 games in his pro debut in the Pioneer League and wasn't on my radar as a prospect at all. He played 43 games for Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2001 and hit .229/.352/.400. I actually saw him for the first time and made a notation in my game notebook that he had "impressive raw power" but looked quite rough otherwise. I didn't put him in my 2002 book but would have given him a Grade C if I had.

Still at Cedar Rapids in 2002, he hit .251/.362/.392 with 10 homers and 62 walks in 106 games. I didn't put him in the 2003 book but again he would have rated a Grade C. Moved up to Rancho Cucamonga in 2003, he hit .267/.364/.412 in 47 games. Small sample, injuries, and again a Grade C who didn't impress me enough to put in the book, although the power/walk combination was present.

Napoli hit .282/.393/.539 with 29 homers for Rancho in 2004, earning a Grade C+ in the 2005 book. I wrote "I think a lot of his power will carry forward to higher levels, but he's probably a .240 hitter against good pitching." The review in the book noted a long swing but was pretty positive.

Moved up to Double-A Arkansas for '05, he hit .237/.372/.508 with 31 homers and 88 walks. I gave him another Grade C+, writing that Napoli is "something like a cross between (Matt) LeCroy, Mickey Tettleton, and Rob Deer.
Someone should get some use out of him."

I think the ratings for Napoli were appropriate based on the information available at the time. His career was within the realm of expectation until his huge breakout with the Texas Rangers in 2011.

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Mike Napoli called to tell me

that he appreciates this nod after being overlooked on yesterday’s list. He says being forgotten on a prospect website caused many painful memories to well up from deep down inside him, memories of being ignored and forgotten when he was a prospect. He thanks you.

He also says that his mom always believed in him, and that has made all the difference.

by Brownson on Feb 2, 2012 2:26 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

nap man

Those numbers in ‘04, ’05 look pretty damn impressive, surprised he did not receive a better grade or more attention. A catcher that doesn’t kill you behind the dish with that kinda plate discipline and massive raw power is hard to find.

by St.Steve on Feb 2, 2012 3:22 PM EST reply actions

his scouting reports weren't too good, and even rating him as highly as I did was criticized

by John Sickels on Feb 2, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

Not ridiculous

I seriously doubt Napoli has another 2011. He rode a .344 BABIP and really cut his K rate and improved his BB rate and ISO. Maybe those three will stick, and I think he will be a full-time player (and deserve it) for at least another few years, but I don’t see another 5+ WAR season. His splits certainly don’t predict it (he had zero splits this year and 40 points of wOBA for his career).

Generally, though, I really like the idea of a bad defensive catcher who can play other positions and hits well as your backup. Victor Martinez is another example – you lose C defense, but defense isn’t as important as offense and isn’t able to be measured as well. Meanwhile you can actually rest your starting C without the terror of a backup C bat making you want to play the first-string guy in 140 games.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Feb 2, 2012 3:39 PM EST reply actions

I don't think anyone expects him to roll out a 7.4 WAR/150G pace in 2012

I imagine that the average will drop and the ISO will drop, but there’s nothing in his profile that suggests the BB% will drop. The contact is way up, the swinging strikes are down, and he’s swinging at less junk.

I wouldn’t be surprised (and would be very happy) with something like .270/.360/.500

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

btho Iowa State

by MonkeyEpoxy on Feb 2, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

One quick question

John, How would you rate a 23 yrs old catcher prospect at AA level, who will be very likely(with low risk) to have Napoli’s career in Angels including his defense? B+ ?

by Tann on Feb 2, 2012 9:54 PM EST reply actions