BP/Goldstein Astros Top 11 (essentially Top 20 lists now)
Why is it still called Top 11 when he always gives at least 15, if not 20? Anyhow, just a small gripe of mine.
Only copying and pasting the free stuff. I wish I still had a BP subscription for this (as I remember debating the Astros system here over the stuff), but the Cosart write-up looks fair to me. Remember seeing him this summer and he was just so inconsistent. I understood the fascination with Jarred, but thought he was always touch over-hyped, but that's me.
Mildly surprised Oberholtzer is 4th.
System in 20 Words or Less: Trades and the draft improve things dramatically, but there's still much work to be done.
Four-Star Prospects
1. Jarred Cosart, RHP
2. George Springer, OF
3. Jonathan Singleton, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
4. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP
5. Jonathan Villar, SS
6. Domingo Santana, OF
7. Telvin Nash, 1B
Two-Star Prospects
8. Delino DeShields, 2B
9. Jack Armstrong, RHP
10. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
11. Paul Clemens, RHPNine More:
12. Ariel Ovando, OF: This high-priced Dominican signee showed huge raw power and huge holes in swing during his stateside debut.
13. Austin Wates, OF: He’s a plus runner with contact skills, but he struggles in center field and has limited power.
14. Jordan Scott, OF: Scott, a pop-up prospect in the Appy League, has an outstanding bat, but scouts want to see other tools.
15. J.B. Shuck, OF: He’s a little grinder who gets on base, but he has already reached his ceiling—a fourth outfielder.
16. Mike Kvasnicka, 3B: Scouts are confused as to why Kvasnicka is not a catcher. He just does not have enough bat for third base.
17. Juan Abreu, RHP: Abreu is the lesser-known player from the Bourn trade. He is older and undersized, but he has big velocity out of the bullpen and can miss bats.
18. Adrian Houser, RHP: Houser, a 2011 second-round pick, has a pro body and excellent athleticism, but is still learning how to pitch, and is seen by some as a bit of a project.
19. Vince Velasquez, RHP: This 2010 second-rounder missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his projection remains through the roof—or at least at it.
20. Jio Mier, SS: This 2009 first-rounder is a plus defender who can't hit, but that’s slightly offset by his ability to draw walks.1. Jarred Cosart, RHP
DOB: 5/25/90
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 38th round, 2008, Clear Creek HS (TX)
2011 Stats: 3.92 ERA (108-98-43-79) at High-A (20 G); 4.71 ERA (36.1-33-13-22) at Double-A (7 G)
Tools Profile: He’s a power right-hander with killer stuff and a baffling lack of results.Year in Review: While he had the best stuff of any right-hander at the Futures Game and was the key to the Hunter Pence deal, Cosart spent much of the year frustrating scouts as to why he wasn't better.
The Good: Cosart certainly looks the part of a pitcher. He's a pure power arm with a good frame that features projection. The righty already sits in the mid-90s, and consistently touches 97-99 in each start. Both his curveball and changeup flash as plus; if you see him on the right night, they can flash more. Cosart approaches the game with the kind of confidence arrogance that scouts like to see in a hard thrower.
The Bad: Cosart's numbers are nowhere close to what they should be based on his stuff. His mechanics can quickly get sloppy and violent, which costs him both command and movement on his secondary pitches. He can focus too much on overpowering hitters and forgetting about his secondary pitches or sequencing. “My projection changes on him every time I see him,” said one scout. “And in my history, a lot of pitchers like that end up closing.”
Ephemera: Cosart would not be the first player who signed as the 1156th overall pick in the draft; Mike Jacobs (1999 draft) was the first in 2005.
Perfect World Projection: Cosart has the potential to be a frontline starter, dominating closer, or constant source of frustration in the mold of Gavin Floyd.
Fantasy Impact: You like to gamble?
Path to the Big Leagues: Cosart will likely begin 2012 back at Double-A, and how well he pitches will determine his timetable. There are scenarios in which he reaches the big leagues by September, and there are chances that he's in the Texas League all season.
ETA: 2013
37 comments
|
Add comment
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
some very interesting thoughts here
The set of three stars and the set of two stars could be switched, really.
by mrkupe on Nov 1, 2025 11:40 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I actually like Oberholtzer
and I really don’t remember if Goldstein’s 3 star designation had specific meanings in the way John does for his grades, but he just … doesn’t feel like a 3-star guy to me. Oh well, going to have to see his other lists to really know what other talent he’s placing at a 3-star level this year.
There really isn’t a 2-star that I feel is a 3-star, but that’s my take on their system and I know plenty disagreed this summer.
by toonsterwu on Nov 1, 2025 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe KG tossed the direct link between stars and rankings
He had something of a mutiny among his readership concerning that prior to last season’s rankings, I think.
by mrkupe on Nov 1, 2025 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
My recollection
Was that he was making the stars relative to one another instead of tied to an absolute yardstick…therefore, a star rating of 5 might not mean the same thing in a strong prospect year as it would in a weak one.
by siddfynch on Nov 2, 2025 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And that
He changed this after quiet a few people pointed out the flaws in this approach.
Then I canceled my subscription (not for that reason), so don’t know the aftermath.
by siddfynch on Nov 2, 2025 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, my thoughts are
This list has the right prospects and seems fairly reasonable on the distribution of grades (although slightly pessimistic in my opinion), but I would definitely do a pretty significant re-ordering of prospects 4-20.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 2, 2025 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't like Obie where he is
To me, Clemens is a better prospect than he is right now. I also would have the Astros top 3 as Singleton, Cosart, Springer, not the order he had.
Otherwise, it’s a pretty good list. 15-17 are all puzzling, all three of those guys are pretty low upside guys and I’d rather have Houser, Velasquez, and Mier over those players. They may be less proven, but they at least have a shot at being solid MLB starters. I don’t see Shuck, Kvasnicka, or Abreu getting there.
by patrickharrel on Nov 2, 2025 12:12 AM EDT reply actions
Houser all the way down at 18 seems the most glaring problem to me
I feel he’s closer to being a borderline top 10 guy in the Astros system.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 2, 2025 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
that was a little surprising, yes
I think he’s a little bit of a wild card, but the upside is very attractive.
by mrkupe on Nov 3, 2025 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see Abreu getting there.
If he can make some big changes with his mechanics, and also have better command with his fastball, he could be the big arm from the ‘pen that we’ve been lacking for a long time.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Nov 2, 2025 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Big O
As a Braves fan I like Olberholtzer where he is and think that this time next year he’ll be firmly entrenched in the Stro’s rotation…Clemens seems like one to keep an eye on as a fast mover in that system and in the end I think this trade benefited both players as far as advancing their ETA to the majors.
by jerzbravesboy24 on Nov 2, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree on two of those three
Velasquez is a talented wait-and-see for now, and Mier just doesn’t seem to impress anybody at the plate with anything other than his patience. I think Mier has a pretty good shot to make it as long as he keeps up the good work with his glove, but when his bat seems to get such underwhelming reviews even with a decent rebound in Lexington, I’m untroubled by anybody not being a believer until scouting and stats converge with positive outcomes.
I might be a bit biased as I have seen a decent amount of Shuck on video and in-person, but I really like him. The numbers don’t lie as he really has no power in his game, but he is exactly the sort of high-makeup grinder type that teams love to have around. He can play all three outfield positions, he can run a bit, and best of all, he delivers quality ABs with a solid chance of getting on base. He is clearly a bench player and not even really a guy you’d want to use as a long-term injury replacement, but he has some skills that should keep him around.
Kvasnicka, I’m willing to give a partial mulligan to. Yes, he’s a bit old. No, he really didn’t do that much with the bat, although being from Minnesota in the Big 10 the developmental track gives him a little more leeway than your average college draftee. The problem, as KG noted, is that he’s just ill-suited to project as a third baseman. His best tool is his arm, and there is no reason not to take advantage of it behind the plate. He can hit a bit, but his power is limited. “It’s the Cal League, stupid” aside, I think he could show some major gains in his second full pro season, and if he can do it behind the plate, he’s a very legit prospect again. I’m not very high on him, but there’s enough to warrant giving him a bit more time.
by mrkupe on Nov 3, 2025 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
how is goldstein still so terrible at ranking prospects
by daveh33 on Nov 2, 2025 4:59 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm not seeing the problem
The only thing that really jumped out to me was the very high placement of Telvin Nash
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
by Jeff Reese on Nov 2, 2025 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Shuck and Scott are puzzling
Shuck can get on base but he’s not fast, he has no arm, and he takes bad routes to balls in the outfield. I don’t see him ever being above replacement level. Scott can hit for average but doesn’t appear to have any other tools. His inclusion is odd.
I know the top 3 are relatively close, but Cosart as #1 is odd as well. Singleton seems to be the most likely impact prospect of them all, but he’s #3. I know that minor league stats are relatively unimportant because people are always working on things etc, but his lack of success is worrisome.
by patrickharrel on Nov 3, 2025 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Singleton seems to be the most likely impact prospect of them all
Jeff has made a pitch for Springer, and I can see his point. Above avg CF with power and good speed? My top three were Singleton, Cosart, Springer, but I’ve moved Springer to #2 in my mind. I don’t usually fret over pitcher deliveries, but Cosart’s actually alarms me a bit. Hard to see that working 200+ innings a year, year in and year out.
by blackoutyears on Nov 3, 2025 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
i'd have
Singleton, Springer, and Cosart in that order as well
by blue bulldog on Nov 3, 2025 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Springer might actually be my number one in this system
I’d have to think hard about it. They’re all pretty close for me. But yeah Cosart is my least favorite of the three.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 4, 2025 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Am with you
You can carve out a case for the other two guys listed similarly I suppose, but I find it hard to argue against Jonathan Singleton at the top of the Astros’ system. Even if Jarred Cosart’s eventual role is pretty up for interpretation, I feel more comfortable gambling on he than George Springer for some reason. Personal preference I suppose.
by Matt0330 on Nov 4, 2025 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, Shuck & Scott are pretty far down the list
We’re talking about, at best, 2 star prospects. If Goldstein thinks that they could contribute in some way in the majors, the placements are understandable. I’d have Houser above those guys, but we’re not talking about a very deep system here where there are a number high ceiling guys left off the list.
As for the top three, I think you hit on the answer with them being very close. My order would be Springer/Singleton/Cosart, but I can’t blame anyone for having a different order. Singleton has a really good bat, but he’s also purely a first baseman and needs to show more power (I think he will).
With any list, there are going to be differences of opinion, I just don’t see anything notably bold about the placements (save Nash).
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
by Jeff Reese on Nov 3, 2025 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
nash
I just don’t see the excitement there, other than the grade possibly being a “hedge your bets” move given the possibility that he attracts buzz with some big power numbers in Lancaster.
He’s basically a one tool guy, even if that one tool is impressive.
by mrkupe on Nov 3, 2025 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, especially given his view on 1B prospects
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
by Jeff Reese on Nov 3, 2025 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I would have him much lower as well
Two stars on this rating scale for sure. But on the flip side, I think Goldstein is underselling Clemens and Foltynewicz a fair amount. I’d probably put them at 3 stars.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 4, 2025 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Clemens is well placed
I didn’t get a SP vibe at all when I watched him pitch. He looks like he’s much better suited to dial up his fastball for an inning.
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
by Jeff Reese on Nov 4, 2025 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Any particular reason for that, or is it just a feeling?
He pitched well as a starter in AA ball.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 4, 2025 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
It's only based off of one outing but
- His command was bad, and by the middle innings poor command turned into poor control.
- His fastball showed impressive velocity early but fell off a bit by the middle innings, and with the poorer control, hitters were putting VERY good swings on it
- Curve ball had inconsistent shape and sharpness; flashing average is about as high as I’d go on it
- Change up had some drop but was picked up pretty easily by the hitters
It was much easier for to envision him as a RP who relies heavily on his fastball than a future SP.
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
by Jeff Reese on Nov 4, 2025 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Like Kevin Goldsteinpersonally
Mostly because he has pretty terrific & somewhat adventurous musical taste (at least as it pertains to1980s punk/much of the Touch and Go stuff/indie rock,etc) & isn’t loathe to mention certain things from that arena no matter how obtuse. He seems more interesting than most of the others who have a toe in this sort of thing professionally to me.
As for quabbling about rankings..they’re still subjective, right? If you think he’s consistently ‘off’ in comparison to other comumnists, I suppose you could elaborate.
by Matt0330 on Nov 4, 2025 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Jordan Scott
His addition has me really puzzled. His numbers aren’t really good, and I haven’t heard much (anything?) about him until I saw this list.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 2, 2025 2:02 PM EDT reply actions
Anyone else surprised that Deshields got only two stars?
Seemed like he performed OK, still has the original scouting reports that led to being a decent-upside pick, and is quite young.
by siddfynch on Nov 2, 2025 4:52 PM EDT reply actions
very surprised, actually
Let’s be honest, he sucked pretty badly this year. It’s not something to forget, but I don’t think anybody was expecting this exceptionally raw player to do much of anything this year, anyways. I assume he was in the Sally because the Astros just wanted him to get as many in-game reps as possible.
On the bright side, as you noted, he’s still talented and he is very young. Lots of athleticism, just doesn’t really have game skills yet. I didn’t care for him all that much last year relative to other first round talents, but frankly, his was not a year worth getting off a bandwagon over. If you thought he was a nice upside play last year, there’s not much here that should clearly change your mind. If you didn’t like him very much, not much to change your mind that way, either.
If he’s still playing like this halfway through next year, yeah, there are issues. I’m feeling better about DeShields, though, than I felt about Jio Mier after his awful Sally debut.
by mrkupe on Nov 3, 2025 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
"If you thought he was a nice upside play last year, there’s not much here that should clearly change your mind."
That about sums it up for me.
by siddfynch on Nov 3, 2025 7:40 PM EDT reply actions
Delino
I always hear BABIP being bandied about on here and, I often find the stat’s usage to be nonsensical. It never seems to be hauled out when it really most telling or most appropriate, in my opinion. Like in the case of Delino DeShields perhaps.
I look at his 2011 season and I like almost everything about it, except the batting average. He slammed 9 balls out of the park - swiped 30 bases at a good percentage - drew a good amount of walks - played good defense from what I’ve heard. He is going to need to raise the average, don’t get me wrong but, the indicators that he will are there I think.
Delino’s 2011 season actually reminds me quite a bit of Justin Upton’s 2006 year in the MWL, after which a lot of people were really down on Upton, believe it or not.
I’m not saying Delino is as good as Justin Upton but, that they might be similar in the over-emphasis of the lower-than-expected batting average and, under-emphasis on the skills displayed at a young age.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Nov 4, 2025 2:40 AM EDT reply actions
The biggest concern for me is he struck out a good amount
21% of plate appearances, I believe. For a guy who was advertised as having good hit tool that’s a little concerning. Still, maybe it’s not that surprising since he’s only 18 and this is the first time he’s focused solely on baseball, but I’d still like to see that strikeout number below 100 on the season.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 4, 2025 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions
4 of the top 6 are former Phils. To me, Santana has big breakout upside if his age is legit.
by Nikk.m on Nov 4, 2025 10:44 AM EDT reply actions
I agree
I won’t get into all of the age stuff (Keith, is that you?) but Domingo Santana is the type that absolutely sticks out when you see him. I felt that he & Marcell Ozuna seemed like veritable extra terrestrials when compared to most of their brethren in short season play due to their palpable upside & athleticism in 2010 & that was only a mild exaggeration.
The thing with Santana seemed to be the fact that he was extremely raw & there was uncertainty whether he’d come close to reaching his potential due to that. Obviously, Santana is still more of a ‘boom/bust’ guy than some others I guess, but he seemed to make very discernible strides this summer & I wouldn’t necessarily bet against him. What a great ‘upside play’ PTBNL get by Houston.
by Matt0330 on Nov 4, 2025 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you
This is isn’t very scientific I admit but, when watching the readily available interview with him when Googling Santana, he sure looks like an 18 year old when he speaks.
Anyways, I agree that his frame stands out, as well as the fluidity in his swing. Lots of time with guys who are ’toolshed" types they are actually really strong, fast, quick-twitch athletes but, thier actual baseball swing looks stiff. Not with Domingo Santana.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Nov 4, 2025 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.

- » Create a new SB Nation account
- » Already registered with SB Nation? Log in!

by toonsterwu on 












