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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

Tampa Bay Rays Organization Discussion

March2111_084_tiny by John Sickels on

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I am now working on the Arizona Diamondbacks Top 20 list, although it probably won't get finished until next week due to my fall league trip. In the meantime, we can discuss the next team on the list, the Tampa Bay Rays, to be followed by the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, and Florida Marlins.

Use this threat to discuss the Rays system. Has it thinned out any? Is it possible they are too conservative about promoting prospects, sort of the anti-Tigers? See any sleepers that get overlooked due to the bigger names?

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Ryan Brett. I think he was a second rounder in 2010. Hasn’t played full-season ball yet, and I’m not sure what the reports on his defense are (no one can seem to agree if he’s a 2B or SS) but I like the reviews on his scrappy style of play. I’m also a Washingtonian homer, so then there’s that.

by Grudyfan on Oct 31, 2025 6:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Reports on his defense are that it is bad.

He is fairly athletic though, so I think he will be able to handle 2B.

by mr. maniac on Oct 31, 2025 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not the only one

Loved Brett since he got drafted. In that draft class, Vettleson and Brett have turned into some decent prospects while Sale and O’Connor have slightly disappointed. I believe Drew and Ryan deserve to play for Bowling Green in 2012/

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not too conservative

Given the Rays’ budget, it’s in their interest to get as much of the prime years of their players in a cost-controlled contract. While it have been in, say, Desmond Jennings’ interest to be in the majors two seasons ago, it was in the Rays’ interest to wait until he was almost 25. Now they’ll get most of his prime years at a reasonable price.

by RM on Oct 31, 2025 7:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Jennings

He could have been called up when he was 23, back in 2010.
But he was injured when he was supposed to be called up.
He had his big league debut at age 24.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Oct 31, 2025 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

BUT.

Hitters’ primes are very different from pitchers’ primes. Evidence shows that pitchers get better quickly and then immediately start declining, so promoting them quickly may well be the best solution.

by abbreviatedman on Nov 1, 2025 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

that's not exactly true

There are plenty of cases of pitchers who don’t figure things out until their late 20s or even early 30s.

In terms of sheer physical potential, yes, I’ll agree with you for the most part. Other things like muscle memory and pitching knowledge are on a different track.

A conservative track in of itself does not necessarily lead to success, but the Rays don’t just promote their pitchers a level at a time and look at them once a year. Even their best pitching prospects (Hellickson, Moore) added something new to their respective games every year, and that’s even as they were excelling on the field with what they already had. In a way, there is nothing really conservative about the Rays’ development program - if anything, they endorse a very dynamic program.

by mrkupe on Nov 1, 2025 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree but...

The Rays are very financially conscientious and I think that at times they allow that to dictate when they call players up. Because of the money they are willing to keep a player down who has any issues and have him iron it out in the minors, whereas a team like Detroit is more willing to let their players figure it out/develop at the Major League level.

If I were to run a team I would personally be more inclined to run it like the Rays and err on the of it being a business and minimizing risk, but that can be really hard for fans who want to see the rising stars ASAP.

by James Westfall on Nov 1, 2025 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see how one can argue with the Rays' track record with their pitchers

Has any other organization had as many starters come through the pipeline with the degree of success — and, most importantly, the lack of injuries — as the Rays?

Hitters are another story, but quite frankly, the Rays haven’t really had many elite upper-level hitting prospects lately. Jennings has his history of injuries and Brignac didn’t really hit at AA or AAA. I suppose you could argue that the Rays didn’t get that much more out of sending Matt Joyce back down to AAA for another year and half, but that’s sort of a tough counterfactual to argue.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

But but the RAYS HAVE HIGH DRAFT PICKS!!!!!

Seriously, the Rays are great at developing pitchers.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

So what we have decided is that if you have really high draft picks over say a 10 year period of time and you take the time to develop them completely in the minors you are going to have a good track record with successful MLB players? I think we are onto something. lol

And as for developing pitchers I think the SF Giants have a pretty solid track record over the last 5 years, maybe better than the Rays even.

by James Westfall on Nov 2, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Quality Vs. Quantity?

Giants-
Lincecum
Cain
MadBum

Rays-
Price
Hellickson
Moore

Rays have an abundance of pitchers who are #2-#4 level pitchers, but the “ACE”-level pitchers aren’t always abundant.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree

Last 5 years
Giants -
Lincecum
Cain
Bumgarner
Sanchez

Rays-
Shields
Price
Hellickson
Moore
Wade Davis

Plus, Rays have much more pitching depth in their farm.
I would say Lincecum & Cain has been a little more consistent
than Rays pitchers but despite of 100m differences in payroll,
Rays has been better on developing pitchers.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 2, 2025 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

but despite of 100m differences in payroll,
Rays has been better on developing pitchers.

How does payroll matter?

You could turn that around and say “despite the Giants consistently drafting far behind the Rays until a few years ago…”

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 2, 2025 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shields

I know that James shields had a great 2011 season and is in a more difficult league for pitchers than any of the Giants pitchers, but he has a career ERA of almost 4 and is one season removed from having an ERA in the 5’s. He has to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke for me personally to be considered an example of the Rays superior drafting ability, even as a 16th rounder.

For me the only one who is a shining star is Price and I think Hellickson and Moore will be there soon. Also Hellickson and McGee were 4th and 5th rounders not 20th rounders so its not like the Rays found these diamonds in the rough deep in the draft.

The Rays are a great franchise and I like almost everything they do, but to think they have this elite ability to develop pitchers might be a stretch and a lot is riding on Moore and Hellickson to support that argument.

by James Westfall on Nov 2, 2025 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um

Why is Price the only shining star?

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Proven

IMO Price is the only one who has consistently proven to be a top of the rotation star. He has put two seasons back to back with Ace results and the pedigree to continue that trend. James Shields is a good pitcher but he isn’t elite he has had years of inconsistency (2009-2010). I would rather have Lincecum, Cain and maybe even Bumgarner over him.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow, this is dumb.

Shields has had more prior sucess than Price. In 5 full years with the Rays, Shields has only failed to pass 3.7+ WAR once. That is very good.

A year when he put up 3.7 WAR is inconsistent? Only inconsistent for an ace.

Shields is a very good pitcher. Do you want to know how many pitchers posted a 4.5 or more WAR season in the AL in 2011? 11. Shields has done that twice in his career.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

So a consistent 4 WAR starter isn't good/great?

I’m not saying he is a great pitcher. Shields will provide you with 230+ innings. Shields also has found a plus curveball which will only make him better. Add in that 2010 looks like a total fluke, and Shields looks even better.

And getting good players in the fourth to fifth round isn’t notable?

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fluke

2009 and 2010 were both not great years and while I do think it is valuable to have a player like shields who can consistently pitch 200+ innings, 200 innings of 3.96 ERA ball isn’t outstanding in my mind. I think he is a good player, but he is closer to a #3 than he is to a #1 IMO. if he builds off of this season and continues to post similar numbers his new found curveball sticks then he could go on to be a true ace, but right now I don’t think he is there.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

PS

I don’t think getting good talent in the 5th round is particularly praiseworthy, sure its all well and good, but if you cant get good talent in the 5th round than that says more for how bad you are than how good you are.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know.

This is unbelievably stupid.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

i understand that finding a top talent in the 5th round is rare

i will concede that point. I dont mean to be overly critical of the Rays because I like the way they do business. I was just trying to make the point that finding talent in the 5th round isnt unheard of (ie Ryan Howard and Michael Young to name a few)

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, for sure.

My apologies for the over reaction.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

no worries

its good to have debates/differences of opinion.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shield is not CYY caliber pitcher

But he held his own, pitching at toughest division of baseball and managing 4+ WAR every season with 220~250 innings every year. This kind of pitcher does not grow on tree, I would definitely consider him as an example of Rays development ability. I cannot think of many 16+ rounders who has been more impressive than Shields in recent days.

by Hak Ju Lee on Nov 2, 2025 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

This.

It might be a career year and he probably isn’t “elite”, but he is very very good.

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I think Shields is a 3.5 WAR pitcher who will get around 190K’s and post and ERA around 3.40-3.60. He is in a tough division and is a good player but i dont think he is elite either.

outstanding for a 16th round pick, but in terms of league average he is a #2-#3 SP.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

#2 #3 SP

So I assume you are saying that there are roughly 60 to 90 pitchers who could be equivalent or potentially better than Shields. Even in 2009/2010 seasons, his xFIP was 3.85/3.55. No one is saying Shield is absolute ace but he is 30 yrs old and just had a cy young candidate season with 250 innings.

by Hak Ju Lee on Nov 3, 2025 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

I get the feeling most people view him as a great #1 and almost and ACE especially with quotes like…“Between his past success, durability and level of competition, James Shields is a true #1 and borderline ace.” -ReyL

I think that a pitcher with a winning percentage of .533 and a career ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.23 is a #2 pitcher and there are probably 50 other pitchers with a similar line over the same amount of time.

I agree 2011 was a great year, but 2010 was as bad a season as 2011 was good. so if you throw those two out you are looking at a #2 SP

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even using the outdated statistics you chose for this comparison.

There were 20 pitchers last year who had 200 IP, a .533+ WP and ERA below 3.96. This is only for the 2011 season, not over a 5+ year span. 2011 was also a season with one of the lowest run environments in years. Never mind the fact that this is all the while playing in the ALE, which had 3 of the top 6 scoring teams in all of MLB, including the top 2.

I would think you would be very hard pressed to find me 15 pitchers with over 1000+ IP, a WP >.533 and ERA <4.00 over the past 5 years, in any division, let alone the ALE.

by ReyL on Nov 3, 2025 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are 10 that have >1000 IP, >.500 WP, and <4.00 ERA.

Over the last 5 years (Shields has 5 full-seasons), there are 48 pitchers in baseball that have as good of an ERA and WP as Shields (3.86 and .545 respectively) disregarding IP. Of that sample, Shields has the 6th most IP. If you limit to 400 IP (or two full seasons) that number drops to 36.

Looking at WAR, Shields is 25th in BRef WAR since 2007. Using FG WAR, Shields is 16th. Either way he is one of the best 30 pitchers over the last 5 years. How that isn’t a number 1 is beyond me…

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Why in the worl would you think he is only a 3.5 WAR pitcher?

Unless you think he is heading downhill from this point on. Guys in Shields mold seem to age much better, especially when they are getting even better.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think that

he will be a roughly average (give or take) 3.5 WAR pitcher because i think that hitters will realize that he has shifted his approach on the mound to focus more on off-speed offerings and that in years past (2009-2010) he was more fastball dominant and for the first time in 2011 he featured the change up/curve more heavily and he had that advantage on the mound. I think the league will catch up with him and that he will be around the 3.5 WAR range. It is just my opinion.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess we will see.

I just feel that, with the development that his curve has made (it is now an easy plus pitch if not better) that he can continue his approach. The HR totals give evidence of his average fastball, but with his command and offspeed stuff, he is still able to keep them off balance.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

true

it could easily go that way. i mean maybe 2011 is the year he becomes a true pitcher who has harnessed his potential. i can easily see it working that way. i just dont know if he will ever be able to shake off the long ball, and that could be a byproduct of the ALE, but unfortunately that’s the league where he pitches. imagine if he pitched in San Diego, his case for being an ace would be easier for sure.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

There are very few 16th rounders who turn out as well as shields has. He is a good player. But he has pitched over 220 innings once, (this past season) he has a career ERA that is dangerously close to 4 and the two seasons prior to 2011 were rough. I’m just saying lets see him string together a season of 2011 type numbers before we anoint him an ACE.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

But he has pitched over 220 innings once

Dude, he’s 6th in MLB since he came up IP. That’s awesome.

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

you don't consider drafting a number 1 starter in the 16th. round a success?

You choose to discredit his most recent season while focusing on two years ago, even though last year is much closer to his career norms than two years ago was.

James Shields has averaged 3.84 WAR over the past 5 years. Last year there were only 24 pitchers in all of baseball who did that. He has also pitched over 200 innings for 5 straight seasons, while having 20-25% of his starts coming against the Yankees or Red Sox. Between his past success, durability and level of competition, James Shields is a true #1 and borderline ace.

How many other SP1 do you think have been drafted outside of the top 15 rounds?

by ReyL on Nov 3, 2025 2:36 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions  

I just don't see it

I don’t think he is a #1 and I don’t think he will ever be a true ACE. He has battled inconsistency throughout his career and he is going to be 30. I think if you are going to consider 2009 and 2010 as flukes then you have to consider 2011 as a fluke too. Removing all outliers I think it more reasonable to view him as a solid #2 or excellent #3. who will eat 200+ innings and will give you an ERA of around 3.5.

As for being a 16th round pick. He is probably the best 16th round pick in recent memory. But as for averaging 3.84 WAR, a 38th Round pick named Mark Buehrle has averaged 3.88 WAR over the last 12 years and I’m pretty sure nobody views him as a bonafide ACE.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

2011

if you want to discredit his 2010 season as being unlucky it should be noted that his 2011 season he had a BABIP of .258 good for 8th best/lowest in the MLB.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno

As good as he is, a .258 BABIP is still REALLY low. Just saying.

by mrkupe on Nov 3, 2025 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anyone know how to find the BABIP against a team?

I wouldn’t be surprised if the number against the Rays is pretty low.

by mr. maniac on Nov 4, 2025 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great defense behind a pitcher and the fact his park is pitcher friendly aren't something to his credit.

If you’re arguing his BABIP isn’t lucky because he plays in front of a great defense and in a pitcher’s park… well, you’re basically still arguing he got the benefit of factors outside of his skillset. That’s not to his credit. That’s a couple marks against him when we’re analyzing his ability.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 4, 2025 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

I realize that.

I just just noting that there is a chance that he wasn’t lucky.

However, he still was very good, as you can see in his FIP and his WAR.

by mr. maniac on Nov 4, 2025 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh sure

He’s an very good pitcher. Might quibble with Ace, but if I did it would be halfheartedly. & I agree he got very unlucky in 2010.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 4, 2025 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup.

And if you believe in the difference between ace and #1 starter, than he is a #1.

by mr. maniac on Nov 4, 2025 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

check this out

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=4732&playerid2=7059&playerid3=4972&position=P&page=0&type=full

i ran a comp between hamels, shields and cain…three pitchers who are all close to being #1’s but are not ACE’s on their individual teams or in the broader MLB.

hopefully the link works, but it is an interesting tool to determine player value.

by James Westfall on Nov 4, 2025 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Definition of an ACE

justin verlander, tim lincecum, roy halladay, clayton kershaw, cc sabathia, felix hernandez, james shields…which name doesn’t belong?

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Definition of a #1 starter...

paul maholm…just kidding.

let me ask you this who would you rather have on your team…cole hamels or james shields?

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is a very good question.

Both are very close in terms of value, so I guess it goes to personal preference.

So what are you trying to say? Up a little, you mention that Price was an ace. Yet I don’t see him listed with the others.

by mr. maniac on Nov 4, 2025 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Price

yeah i would include him in that list, it was just a small sample of who i consider an Ace. for me i think Price is the #1 and Shields is the #2 in tampa.

as for the hamels vs. shields i think i would rather have hamels. there are a couple distinguishing factors…hamels is two years younger, has accumulated a full 2 WAR more than shields in 4 less starts. and while the ALE is the toughest division the NLE is also pretty difficult. but the thing that imo really makes a difference is the level of consistency. Hamels has been a consistent 3.6 WAR or above since 2007. so while the highs may be higher for shields in terms of WAR the lows have proven to be lower.

in total over the same amount of time Hamels has an average 3.83 WAR and Shileds has a 3.5 WAR. would i consider Hamels a #1…it would be really close but i would say yes.

also i think i previously stated that i view James shields as closer to a #3 than a #1 and after thoughtful consideration and hearing arguments that opposed my view i think that i was wrong and the Shields is closer to a #1 than i previously thought, but i think the 2012 season is going to be the deciding factor, if he can sustain the development strides he made in 2011.

by James Westfall on Nov 4, 2025 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

In 2011

Shields is in the discussion.

And if he can continue throwing 4 pitches for strikes, he will be hard to “catch up to” in 2012.

by ttnorm on Nov 3, 2025 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's the best pitcher selected in the 16th round since Frank Viola in 1978 according to BRef WAR.

He’s the third best pitcher ever selected in the 16th round (Dave Stewart is the only other 16th rounder to amass more WAR, and SHields will likely pass him in the next 2 seasons).

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

for a 16th rounder

i said he was outstanding. I actually really like james shields and want him to continue his success, but he is not a SP1.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

you have no arguement, u didn't use ERA

but no seriously though, Shields is a top of the line #2 in my opinion who does have a glarring weakness in that he gives up too many HR, that being said he has a ton of strengths. He has very good command, the best change-up in baseball, throws a ton of innings, afterall he had the entire league lapped in complete games for most of the season. If anyone looks at more than just ERA you will see that he is more than a #3.

by Dbullsfan on Nov 3, 2025 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think it is a sucess

never did i say that i didnt think a 16th round pick of james shields wasnt a success and if i did i was wrong it is definitely a win for the rays. All i said is i dont think he is a #1 SP.

by James Westfall on Nov 3, 2025 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

You forgot

/sarcasm

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

thinned out?

Didn’t they just have a dozen picks in the top 100 or so?

by mrkupe on Oct 31, 2025 7:33 PM EDT reply actions  

True, but...

a lot of those picks were very raw talents - Eierman, Goetzmann, Hager, Martin, Snell, et al. Hard to gauge how well they will turn out, so the for the time being, the system looks a little thinner in that it’s less sure how much playable talent they really have. Next year, they might blow everyone away in the rankings just because of these very players.

by dbreer23 on Oct 31, 2025 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree.

The system is deeper than ever. Less high end talent though.

by mr. maniac on Oct 31, 2025 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry, let me clarify...

I think it’s thinner at the top than it was a year ago, but it is deeper with talent than a year ago as well.

by dbreer23 on Oct 31, 2025 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

His heir apparent

Will be pitching short-season next year….the cycle begins all over.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure I buy this.

If by high-end talent, you mean players at the upper levels, well then BA disagrees with you. If you mean elite prospects, then there aren’t a lot of teams that have better top-2 prospects than Matt Moore and Hak-Ju Lee. I think you’re comparing them with their glory days from a few years ago, and that is fair, but I think considering they’ve just graduated a series of elite players, and how much more talent is on its way up, they deserve a pass.

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by OldProspects on Nov 1, 2025 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Elite prospects.

And of course, everything is relative. Some elite talent has graduated very recently, including McGee, Hellickson, and Jennings. Three elite players (two who were top 20) in one year can really thin it out.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

A bit thinned out

But crazy depth on Rookey & A balls. Missing some top prospects depth at AA, AAA levels at this point, but in a season or two it will get to that point pretty quickly.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Oct 31, 2025 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree that this system is thin at the top.

They still have Moore, Lee, Torres, Beckham, Archer and Colome all at AA or above. You can make an argument for at least four of those guys being on top 100 lists. There are also the C+ guys who may have value one day like Canzler, Bortnick, Bush, Kang, Barnese and Fleming all in the upper minors. When you combine this with all of the players in the lower levels I think this has to be one of the top 5, if not top 3 systems in all of baseball.

by ReyL on Nov 1, 2025 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Beckham Top 100?

I disagree. Especially every experts sees pretty negative about Beckham.
I think BA chat has mentioned about Beckham as, Beckham broke out?
.271 .328 .408 and 132SO/32BB normally we do not call it a “break out”
thing like that. That BA chat was only about a month or so.

I can see only Moore and Lee for BA Top 100.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

you're way too low on Beckham

He’s a former #1 who still has those tools, he’s been very young at each level, he’s shown improvements with each promotion, is currently tearing up the AFL (for whatever that’s worth), and — most importantly — scouts are coming around to the idea that he can play a passable MLB shortstop.

That has a hell of a lot of value.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Top 100

Bottom line for top 100 has been always strong B prospects.
He may be a league average short stop or maybe 2B as his possible
ceiling but that does not guarantee a spot on top 100.

.307 .382 .518 This is team batting average for AFL.
Bex is .263 .400 .561. He is among 15th on OPS, which
is decent, but little away from tearing up imo.

I see Bex as boarder line B-/B. I hope he improves some discipline
at the plate and adjusts his free swing. I would not place him high on
this organization unless he puts up above OPS .800.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

you're underrating SS prospects

Here: name 5 SS prospects better than Beckham. I can come up with: Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, Hak-ju Lee, and Jean Segura if he stays at short.

Or how about this for comparison: John AND BA both ranked Andrelton Simmons as the #4 prospect in the Braves organization and a strong B+. Simmons is, of course, four months OLDER than Beckham and played at A-ball this year (as opposed to AA/AAA).

If you want to argue that Simmons is a better prospect than Beckham… well, go ahead. I suppose there’s an argument there, but in the best-case scenario for Simmons, it’s still awfully close. And, of course, there’s a pretty straightforward argument that Beckham is the better prospect.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am Rays fan but

The only advantage that Beckham has, is that he is younger than average age. That is it. Nothing else is attractive. K/BB rate is horrendous. Swing mechanic is very inconsistent. Average power for SS, which is not too bad. Glove has chance to stick at position but only could be average at best. Speed is little above average. Hope he proves me wrong when he plays at AAA next season, but at this point, that is what it is.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

hes actually batting .279/.405/.623/1.028.

good for 10th in the league. not that afl stats through 10-15 games means a whole lot, but at least use up-to-date numbers.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I completely forgot about them

I do agree they deserve shots on top 100 as well.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Top 100?

Guerrieri and Romero as Top 100 overall prospects?

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, comfortable last 1/4 for me I think

So 75-100. I don’t know if that’s “borderline” but I think we’re probably pretty close.

Guerrieri is behind a lot of other drafted pitchers, but I’m still a fan. Enny has some pretty ridiculous stuff from a lefty.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 2, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've found myself dropping Romero in my viewpoint recently.

What do you mean by ridiculous stuff? I’m just not sure if the secondary stuff is that strong enough at this point to deserve such a high ranking.

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

He already throws hard for a lefty

and looking at him there’s plenty of reason to think he’ll throw harder in time. Secondaries are inconsistent but flash well and I think the ceiling here is pretty damn high.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 2, 2025 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

C+ for Bush and Fleming

I would lean more towards B- for them. Both have insane K numbers

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love Fleming

of course, the craziest K/9 comes from PC’s Scott Shuman — 15.0!

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chaim Bloom deserves a hand

Dude must just look for guys whose stuff project to be 10+ K/9 pitchers.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is that his K/9 or BB/9

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Nov 2, 2025 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

hey, you've got to take the bitter with the sweet

K rate still 50% above his BB rate!

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 2, 2025 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Beckham

Prospecting is funny, when you lose favor at a young age people tend to think you’re completely washed up. Now when I see people like Keith Law talk about Beckham they focus on the negatives and why he won’t be successful. I don’t think anybody sees him as the next Derek Jeter, but there’s no reason that he can’t turn into the next Orlando Cabrera or Carlos Baerga. There’s value there.

by joaker5 on Oct 31, 2025 8:05 PM EDT reply actions  

That's a pretty big span: Cabrera to Baerga

In his prime, Baerga was one f the top 10 players in the game. I could see Beckham following the path along the lines of Cabrera, though. And yes, there is still value in that.

by dbreer23 on Oct 31, 2025 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1 on Baerga

Has it been so long that people don’t remember how good Baerga was?

by mrkupe on Oct 31, 2025 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think too many folks recall "Baerga the Met"

Plus, for the mid-90’s his HR numbers weren’t gaudy…he also had a very narrow peak - I’d say ’92- ’95.

by dbreer23 on Oct 31, 2025 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, Baerga is a weird comp

my favorite for Beckham is Travis Fryman.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even Fryman is stretching it...

Bex just doesn’t have that kind of power - if everything works out perfectly for Beckham, he might have a few Fryman-like seasons. I think Cabrera mightbe about dead-on for a modern comp.

by dbreer23 on Nov 1, 2025 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

a .443 slg?

scaled from the offensive environment of the 90s? Seems doable to me. T-Bex has always had future power as a tool, and he just slugged .462 at Durham.

Obviously I’m not saying Beckham is a lock for 7,200 MLB PAs — just that this seems like a decent comp.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Though I will say...

that Fryman didn’t have overwhelming power numbers in the minors either, so in that regard they might be comps.

by dbreer23 on Nov 1, 2025 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

three things

1. The more time a player spends in the minors and the older he gets, the more one needs to talk about what he can’t do as opposed to what he is capable of. The goal is to get a productive player, not an impressive highlight video.
2. Would you rather they NOT talk about the player’s negatives? It’s nice to think that everybody is a future All Star in the making, but it’s just not the case.
3. I don’t believe anybody thinks Beckham is “washed up”. He is still a player with a chance at becoming a regular, but yeah, when you’re the No. 1 overall pick, the expectations are high. There aren’t too many outright failures at No. 1, and just about all of them ended up becoming at the very least decent regulars. Sometimes, they became stars. In Beckham’s case, think of it like this: the Rays had a voucher to choose any car that they wanted in the parking lot, and they ended up walking away with a Ford Focus.

by mrkupe on Oct 31, 2025 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think calling him a Ford Focus is a little premature.

He is still only 21 and in AAA and has held his own as he’s moved up the ladder. He is at the point now where he would be drafted out of college and has already climbed to AAA. All you have to do is look at someone like Adrian Gonzalez to say it is a little too early to write off Beckham. He has out-performed Gonzalez to this point, while playing a premium position.

by ReyL on Nov 1, 2025 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

he might end up being a better player, I'm just saying, this is what he looks like at this moment in time

He’s in AAA because they had somebody else who needed to be in AA, not because he was tearing up his competition. It’s nice that Beckham has held his own at every stop, but at some point, he’s going to need to do more than that.

If you use the “what if Beckham was in college” approach, well, let’s see. Middle infielder with chance of sticking at shortstop, some power potential, inconsistent swing mechanics and plate approach. Depending on the numbers, that’s anywhere from a late first rounder to a third rounder, I’d guess. I have Beckham as a B-, so I don’t think he is being dinged unfairly.

Adrian Gonzalez is cherry-picking, but besides that, he was always a pretty good hitter whose prospect standing was deflated somewhat by the position he played and somewhat by mediocre player while repeating AA. He is clearly a high-outcome case of prospect development, but out of 5 minor league seasons, Gonzalez only had one year where the production wasn’t all that appealing.

by mrkupe on Nov 1, 2025 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

While I generally agree with you on his ranking

I think if he was in college, a lot of the flaws you bring up wouldn’t be in the conversation. It’s hard for me to imagine that a player who is a league average bat as a 21 yo SS in the upper minors wouldn’t be tearing up college ball, using an aluminum bat playing against inferior competition. As for Gonzalez, I just chose him since he was a 1st overall pick who through his first 4 years of the minors had an OPS under .800 in three of those seasons and had only just gotten to AAA.

by ReyL on Nov 1, 2025 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

they absolutely would be brought up

Lots of players hit great in college and don’t go very high in the draft at all, for legitimate reasons.

As for Gonzalez:

Draft season (nearly useless, but still): .297/.404/.365 in rookie ball
Age 19: .312/.382/.486 in Low A
Age 20: .266/.344/.437 in AA
Age 21: .269/.327/.365 between AA/AAA
Age 22 (what I would consider his real fourth season): .304/.364/.457

Not bad at all, really. He was always a good pure hitter. His issues were largely due to the aggressive jump to AA and lack of physical maturation. He blew up once ARL stabilized and he got stronger.

by mrkupe on Nov 1, 2025 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

what's your point?

I was just talking about Gonzalez there.

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

side by side:

year-age/league/ops
Bex:
2009- 19/a/.717
2010- 20/a+/.705
2011- 21/aa-aaa/.736

a-gonz:
2001- 19/a/.868
2002- 20/aa/.781
2003- 21/aa-aaa/.692

if bex breaks out now that arl catches up like you said happened with agonz then he’ll be an amazing prospect. to this point looking only at numbers and knowing both were top picks, bex looks better as the ss posting similar numbers (more consistent and better at higher levels but no “great” year).

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

holy spin doctor

Did you even look at the numbers you posted?

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

ummm... yes?

one averaged .719 ops while the other averaged .780. would you rather have a ss with a .719 ops or 1b with a .780?

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

taking an average is a fundamentally poor way of looking at things

It’s particularly offensive here as it weighs too heavily Gonzalez’ poor age 21 season, which was clearly an outlier in his development (and came at a level that he had already handled just fine the year before). Beckham’s production has been largely consistent going by absolute OPS, although it’s been consistently okay, not even “good”.

Comparing their production by age:

Age 19: Beckham (Low A): .717 Gonzalez (Low A): .868
Age 20: Beckham (High A): .705 Gonzalez (AA): .781
Age 21: Beckham (AA-AAA): .736 Gonzalez (AA-AAA): .692

So, Gonzalez had an OPS 151 points higher than Beckham at the same age/level at age 19, and he had an OPS 76 points higher than Beckham at age 20, despite being a level higher. It’s really hard to say that the production was comparable unless you’re trying really hard to advance your overly biased agenda. You’re not doing the Beckham advocates any favors here.

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here are their slash-lines when you take three seasons as a whole:

Bex: .268/.331/.386/.718
A-Gonz: .283/.352/.432/.785

Here’s what MLB 1B hit last year: .271/.345/.452/.797
And what MLB SS hit last year: .263 /.317/.380/.697

So Bex was better than the avg. MLB SS last year over the time-frame and A-Gonz was worse. How am I being the one with the “overly biased agenda?”

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

so again, you're using an average

To say nothing of the obvious issues in trying to compare the minor league numbers of 19-21 year olds to the production of major leaguers . . .

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I already noted this

It weighs Gonzalez’ poor age 21 season too heavily. In a lot of cases, you can get by with that, but this case shows a potential weakness in the approach. He had already succeeded at AA just the year before with solid peripherals, there’s really no reason to think that he had suddenly lost talent.

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

you must not be looking at the same numbers i am as agonz did about the same in AA.

his ops was mid-.700s in AA. in the pcl (the hitters haven), he absolutely shat the bed (.573). this si very unlike bex’s transition to aaa where he outperformed his aa numbers.

my approach offers equal value to every plate appearance he had. theres no issue there apart from your desire to dismiss a bad season.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am, actually

But: go here just so we’re on the same page.

Gonzalez hit .266/.344/.437 (.781 OPS) at age 20 in AA Portland (not an easy place to hit). It was the next season that he had some issues. Beckham’s plate discipline fell off so sharply at AAA that it’s hard to take much from those numbers at this point, good or bad, and I think it’s best just to call a mulligan on that until next year.

It was definitely a bad year, no getting around that (haven’t I said that already?) - my point was that there were reasons to believe it was an outlier, and history has borne that out. It’s pretty different from a guy like Beckham, whose performance has held very steadily in the low .700 OPS range over several years. If you’re inclined to adjust for league, there is even some (although hardly conclusive) evidence to believe that he hasn’t improved quite in tune with the increase in the quality of his competition.

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

gonzalez's bad year:

Carolina (AAA): .777
Alb. (AAA): .573
then traded and sent back to AA and looked worse than he ever had.
Frisco (AA): .719

if we were to take a time machine back to to october of 2003, we’d be very concerned. he did about as well in aa at first, but then was awful in aaa and was traded (did the marlins know something?). once traded tex sent him back down to aa, and he had his worst stint yet there. taht would be very troubling, and wed all be gnashing our teeth about his awful year. then wed all look like idiots.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

you mean the two seasons when Gonzalez greatly outperformed him

And no, I’m not throwing out the other season. Just saying that Gonzalez clearly had multiple campaigns where he was an excellent performer, while Beckham has not enjoyed a single such year.

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

sorry, I didn't respond to that point

Positional value is definitely worth considering, and I do consider it. Although we all know how weird the translation of reputation-into-reality can be as far as defense goes, Gonzalez was regarded as an excellent defender at first base, plus if not plus-plus, potential Gold Glove type.

Certainly Beckham has an edge in terms of positional adjustment even given Gonzalez’ defensive chops, though.

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah. there defensive abilities are tough to gauge.

the fact is that if bex is even a -5 defender at short if he has a .730 ops in the bigs he’s a 2.5 win player which is a solid regular. if as his arl catches up (as you mentioned earlier), and he’s able to post an .800 ops hes an all-star.

in no way in this thread has my argument been that “since agonz figured it out, tbex will to.” its simply, three full seasons in both guys numbers had them looking like busts unless you look deeper.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

okay

So at what point would you have first considered Gonzalez a bust, and why?

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

never. i dont write guys off until theyve written themselves off.

then again, i dont care to be the first one to say “I CALLED IT! HE STINKS!” i make the player absolutely prove he’s a bust. hard to be a bust in aaa at 21.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

i also dont think bex is a star in the making right now. so i do change my opinion.

profar and machado outclass him by a bit. HJL i hold a bit higher, but not by much; and i dont think simmons is a better prospect.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

re: simmons vs. bex

bex offensive upside is sooo much higher than simmons. i think that prospectors in general overrate defense, especially at the tough defensive positions, because its where “scouting” truly comes in to play. my theory is it makes them feel like insiders as it can really only be gleaned in person. it is terribly important especially at these positions, but its also terribly hard to judge.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

re: the last point

since its so hard to judge, when players have seemingly great gloves at tough positions, people really fall in love.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

profar and machado outclass him by a bit.

Understatement of the year. The difference in tools is as wide as an ocean.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 2, 2025 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

"with a chance"

Enough of this, I say! Name me one source, other than someone who just says ‘scouts think….." that doesn’t think he will be fine at SS. Anyoone who has seen the guy in person, including Law and several posters here, agree that he will be fine at SS.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

'Enough of this, I say!'

Do you work at a renaissance faire?

by Matt0330 on Nov 1, 2025 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just kidding

I liked it actually & I feel somewhat vexed by the very phenomenon you mention above from time to time too. Sometimes these rampant generalizations have a propensity to get going without much actual substance behind them.

by Matt0330 on Nov 1, 2025 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Totally agree.

Some of the fluff (for lack of a better term) speads like a disease and catches hold.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you're reading too much pessimism into what I'm saying

There aren’t exactly a lot of players for whom it can be said that they have more than “a chance” to be a regular shortstop. I don’t think it speaks badly of his D, although I suppose you can interpret it as such.

by mrkupe on Nov 1, 2025 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

For whatever it's worth

The defensive metrics used by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference show Beckham’s defense at somewhere between quite poor and disastrous.

Don’t know of any other websites with farmhand fielding stats…but the available numbers are not encouraging.

Not sure he’s progressing all that much at the plate either—-in low-A, his OPS was 25 points above his league; in high-A it was +17 points; and in AA he was very slightly below average.

It’s certainly too soon to call him a bust, but it’s really tough to project him at the same level of, say, fellow shortstop Simmons, whose defensive reports (and numbers) are vastly superior, and whose BB/K/AB surpasses Beckham’s by a far piece.

Looks like a B-/C+ guy to me, overall #1 draft pick or not. Or to put it another way, where would Beckham’s biggest supporters rank him if he’d been drafted in the 3rd or 4th round?

by Mekonsrock on Nov 2, 2025 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I love it how those who try to point out negatives will use anything to support their agenda.

For instance, Beckham ended his AA time in a slump, but broke out in AAA. Yet, those who try to find faults will only list his AA numbers. To the uninformed, the arguement may seem great. To those who know better, it isn’t at all.

Why not count ALL of 2011? Or would it make his numbers not support your arguement?

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

a little early to be leaning much on defensive metrics, but

The point about his OPS is a good one, as far as numbers go.

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

^^

In 2011, Beckham posted, by far, his highest OPS in his career.

And the last defensive stats we have are from 2009.

Numbers can be spun around to support an arguement.

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was referring to this

“in low-A, his OPS was 25 points above his league; in high-A it was +17 points; and in AA he was very slightly below average”

Anything to say about that?

by mrkupe on Nov 2, 2025 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Beck was 19.6 runs below average

in 2010, according to B-Pro. No numbers for 2011 anywhere I can see.

Also, where’s the “breakout” that happened in AAA? I see a troubling 3/29 BB/K that accompanies a .744 OPS.

I’m not being negative for negativity’s sake. Honest. But I just don’t see much if any real evidence of progress in Timmy’s game. Maybe, all along, he just had the tools of a future big league regular, a 2-3 Win type player…but not at all a star. Nothing shameful in that.

by Mekonsrock on Nov 2, 2025 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

My bad, he didn't break out.

He did perform better in AAA though.

Hmm, I must have glanced over that. I wonder what his 2011 defensive numbers looked like.

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see him developing as Aaron Hill

when all goes well.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ryan Carpenter

Had decent debut in pro ball. Some said he showed some dominant fastballs but I really could not find his A ball velocity was. Does anyone have any ideas? I know he used to throw 95+ but for some unknown reasons he was barely throwing 88-90, as low as 84 earlier this year. I cannot imagine regarding 88-90mph fastball as “Dominant.” So should we take it as he’s getting the stuff back already?

by Patrick Relano Kim on Oct 31, 2025 11:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Carpenter pitched a bunch in relief this year

so it’s possible his velo was up in relief stints but down in starts? I haven’t heard either way.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Russ Canzler

.314 .401 .530 at AAA. MVP for the league. I know he does not have “wow” power but he had better ISO than Yonder Alonso at almost all levels and is only one year older than him. His glove at 1B/LF is almost identical to Alonso. He is not getting any attentions at all.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Oct 31, 2025 11:58 PM EDT reply actions  

was that mention of Alonso's glove

to highlight Canzler as a negative or neutral?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Nov 1, 2025 7:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

as neutral

lol

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not saying Canzler is legit

But calling BABIP of .396 as “unsustainable” is not accurate.
.423 .444 .420 .346 .390, these are five consecutive BABIP for
Mike Trout, game’s best prospect. Bret Lawrie has BABIP of .383 also.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

thnx.

wanted to post something in reply but yours was far better than anything I had in mind…

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Nov 1, 2025 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I made a sweeping generalization, of course there is an exception to every rule...

Yes, some players can sustain very high BABIP values - typically those who have great contact ability (Boggs) or good contact ability with good speed (Trout, Lawrie). Canzler doesn’t have that kind of tool set, and never had a BABIP above .333 in the previous five seasons (~2000 PAs).

by dbreer23 on Nov 1, 2025 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Take this with a grain of salt

The Cubs organization, where Russ came from, never really has had a “plan” with prospects until now. The Rays minor league system is run that way, which players are focused on working on certain issues. Maybe Canzler’s BABIP change is due to him finally being developed correctly.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Canzler's BABIP

2007: .316
2008: .310
2009: .333 / .289
2010: .332
2011: .396

Even if you take some portion of his success at AAA due to high BABIP claim, he still manged highest OPS in the league at age 24. I know he does not have enough tools but his hitting ability is enough to find a spot in big league. I think he deserves B-.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Be interesting to see

how guys like Rogers, Morrison, Kiermaier get rated.

detroitbaseballpage.com

by dbpjohn on Nov 1, 2025 1:16 AM EDT reply actions  

And I agree

this system is as deep as ever. Yeah they graduated Hellickson and Jennings. But they added a ton in the draft, and they still have Matt Moore the best pitching prospect in the game. Not to mention that guys like Torres, Barnese, and Colome will be getting ready to contribute soon. Beckham rebounded nicely. Hak Ju Lee is a stud. And that is not even getting into the next wave of guys from A ball down.

detroitbaseballpage.com

by dbpjohn on Nov 1, 2025 1:19 AM EDT reply actions  

considering the top end pitching depth,

does anyone think that they would deal Price? Shields and Niemann have been mentioned the most as trade bait but Price just opted out of the last yr of his deal and now has 4 Arb years in front of him (as a super 2). After a very good season he started to look pretty hittable late. He probably returns the most being there’s 4 yrs of control. Would have to think Price alone could net Alonso + Grandal…

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Nov 1, 2025 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ha

Keep going..

by Matt0330 on Nov 1, 2025 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ehh, I'm okay with that.

Next year, when the Rays have all these prospects break out, we will just say “told you so”.

For a while, I thought people were too high on the Rays farm system. Now I think they are quite too low.

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

i dont disagree, but he has two plus pitches including a plus-plus slider. he also has a decent third pitch.

he may end up a rp, and id imagine his stuff translates to a very good rp, but a year ago he was a top 50 prospect and now hes not even mentioned? i put he and torres neck in neck as great stuff guys who have struggled with command that may relegate them to rp duties. archer seems a lot like a garza/e-jax type where due to his command his performance will never match his stuff, but he could end up as a very good 3/4 starter. or he could end up being a pretty good rp.

by rglass44 on Nov 2, 2025 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

Edwin barely has 1 “plus” pitch….

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Doesn't he have a good slider?

Speaking of which, I think Archer’s star is a legit plus-plus pitch.

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

He just might

However Edwin never seemed to use it effectively over a full-season.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 3, 2025 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh

Which, for him, is a half each year….

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 3, 2025 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well...

I always thought (and still do think) Torres fits best as a reliever, so the similarity is not particularly compelling to me.

I’ve never heard anything good about Archer’s CU, fwiw. I think the EJax comp makes some sense (as far as comps go). A lesser version of Jackson broadly fits both on skill set and possible career path. I don’t think Archer can consistently throw his SL for strikes, so that’s more comparable to when Jackson is off his game and gets hit.

I think Archer’s command and lack of a third quality offering will really limit him to a back of the rotation type if indeed he does start. Out of the pen he could move quickly and be a tough power reliever.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 2, 2025 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think people are dismissing a guy with two plus (one of which is probably plus-plus) too easily.

I think a lot of that has to do with the pitching depth he’s surrounded by. He, Torres, and Colome are all top 50-75 pitching prospects in the game, but they get overshadowed because of Moore (and because how hard it is to distinguish them).

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

2 plus pitches doesn't mean a whole lot if you have major flaws in your game that undercut them.
He, Torres, and Colome are all top 50-75 pitching prospects in the game, but they get overshadowed because of Moore (and because how hard it is to distinguish them).

Not for me. Don’t see any connection to Moore here, either. I think I’d take someone like Markel over Archer, actually.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 3, 2025 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

this reminds me of this:
He also compares favorably to lots of other lefties with big sliders and no control who dominated in A Ball
Most them work at Kinko’s.



I like Moore a bit more than many of them, but he’s far from Kershaw and he’s far from a sure thing.

Personally, Im voting Turner, Matzek and Kelly before him, probably in that order (voted Turner this time)>

by alskor on Jan 19, 2026 8:41 PM EST up actions

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol...
That’s better control than 2009 Moore even
but lets see if he can keep it up or if it was an "on" night or an ump with a big zone or something. As of now Wilking Rodriguez, Colome and Torres have all moved ahead of him for me. I was always skeptical of Moore to be fair.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
by alskor on Jun 16, 2025 1:50 AM EDT up actions
Torres
62 IP, 70 K, 54 H, 27 BB, 3 HR this year. Scouts had very positive reviews of his stuff in the spring and early in the year. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10787

Shouldn’t be taken as too much of a knock on Moore. I was never that big a Moore fan, admittedly… but lets just say he wouldn’t be dropping that many spots in most other systems. I really think the hype on Moore got out of control last year. Big curve he can’t throw for strikes and he also can’t throw his fastball for strikes that often. Change is still pretty weak. People just fell in love with the K’s and overlooked the flaws in his game.

Right now I’m much more confident in Torres being a useful starter than I am Moore. The chances of Moore ending up in the pen (always a big concern for me – poor control, lack of third pitch, questionable conditioning) have increased since last year. Stuff wise I feel Wilking and Colome have a pretty big edge on Moore.

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by alskor on Jun 16, 2025 3:14 AM EDT up actions

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

meant to include this:
I always thought (and still do think) Torres fits best as a reliever, so the similarity is not particularly compelling to me.

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let us not do this. We all have made big mistakes.

I do see that you are showing the inconsistencies, if that is your point.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haha...

I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be very wrong again I’m sure. Already owned up to that one. A few times in fact. I was worried Moore would profile a lot like Marc Rzepczynski. Instead, he dramatically improved his command & control… and his CU, which was a weakness, developed into a weapon. Didn’t foresee any of that.

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by alskor on Nov 3, 2025 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just think your evaluation of the two is similar (obviously scales of magnitude here as Archer has never done what Moore did, and he's already in AAA whereas you were speaking to Moore after A+).

Obviously Archer would be a great prospect if he had great command/control, but you still have to love the stuff. That may be a flaw in my evaluation of him, but I’ll generally take the guy with command questions than stuff questions.

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2025 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are you implying that this describes Markel?

Markel throws harder than Archer (though not by any great margin). I’d take Markel’s FB. Archer’s SL is the best pitch out of all their combined repertoires, but Markel has a solid 3 pitch mix (as opposed to Archer, who is a 2 pitch guy) and Markel’s FB has more life than Archer’s.

People who watched the NYPL (which I see a good bit of) were very excited about Markel. Regardless of your feelings on Archer, I think you’re way underrating Markel. I’m a lot more certain Markel can start (though he does have command issues) and I prefer his deeper repertoire over Archer’s more electric 2 pitch mix (that he doesn’t command at all).

For Rays prospects I’d think I’d prefer Moore, Guerrieri, Markel, Torres, Colome and Enny Romero over Archer. Maybe even Wilking Rodriguez, Joe Cruz and Jeff Ames. “Command problems” understates it w/ regards to Archer, IMO. 134 1/3 IP, 81 BBs. He still has a high ceiling, but in this org a whole lot of talented arms leapfrogged him for me.

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by alskor on Nov 3, 2025 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am a little concerned about Markel's statistics in 2011.

Reminds me of Jake Thompson, not in a good way.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let me think about those guys,....

Moore is higher for sure.
I’d take Torres over Archer.
I might take Guerrieri and Romero over Archer due to their young age.
Markel is a huge maybe. If he was so good, then why weren’t his statistics?
The other three are definite no’s.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Statistics in a short season league = less important that scouting/tools

Also, he did pretty well. Not sure what you don’t like. K rate wasn’t that high, I guess.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 3, 2025 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Alex Cobb

is pretty darn good. McGee is really a rookie. Moore and Cobb are likely in the rotation ix for 2012. Heck, think the club carried more than ten rookies on their MLB roster this year.

by Hairylady on Nov 1, 2025 7:26 AM EDT reply actions  

C.J. Riefenhauser

Under the radar guy - dominated at Bowling n held his own at Charlotte ….lefty too.

by frenchredsox on Nov 1, 2025 8:07 AM EDT reply actions  

Riefenhauser is an easy top 20 guy

Among pitchers, I think he trails only Moore, Torres, Archer, Guerrieri, Romero and maybe Colome.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Woah.

That is awfully high for a guy who doesn’t have a pitch that is better than average.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

CJ

He has nothing that is plus, or potential to be plus. Unless he improves his secondary pitches as possible potential one or gets better fastballs, he will not be even top 30 guys. I would say between top 40 and 50.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Parker Markel

Miracle of 39th round?

by coolzz on Nov 1, 2025 9:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I really like him.

Hopefully he isn’t another Jake Thompson. (Good stuff, can’t strike anyone out)

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

In terms of raw K #s, sure

Considering his talent, uneven college performance & some decent numbers/strides made otherwise since, I still think he’s one to watch.

by Matt0330 on Nov 1, 2025 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mahtook and Guerreri

both high on my prospect list - are they top 10’s in this organization?

by thebroman on Nov 1, 2025 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Guerreri for sure.

Matook might slide in the top 10.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

No question

Mahtook’s upside alone deserves a Top 10 prospect nod as well. More advanced than Sale/O’Connor despite being a little older than both

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mike Mahtook would be a safer play than either of those cats

To me at least & it wouldn’t really be close at this point. I’d take him over Drew Vettleson too.

by Matt0330 on Nov 1, 2025 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree.

Vettleson showed a very solid good all around game.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Better than Mike Mahtook though?

I think he’s pretty much the definition of ‘all around game’. He’s good.

by Matt0330 on Nov 1, 2025 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Mahtook

A bit of a leap of faith with no pro data I suppose, but this kid does everything well. He’s not as small as some seem to think either & he’s comparable as far as dimensions go to Vettleson I believe (if not bigger). The new college bats barely fazed him & he has a nice, quick RH swing that should serve him splendidly. He’s very athletic, beyond sound on the bases & should provide versatility deluxe (good arm too). I think he moves quickly & I believe in his offense (also that his upside is a little understated by some). Vettleson had a nice year but I’m not really certain he’ll ever have even the power that Mahtook has currently Although it appears Drew is more athletic than many might have thought, I don’t know if he’s ever as well rounded as Mahtook is currently. We shall see.

The Rays found a gem in my opinion; was hoping Mahtook (or Levi Michael) would be Toronto’s pick where Tyler Beede went from a personal standpoint (considering the litany of compensation picks following). Even in a ‘strong’ draft, landing Mahtook with the 31st pick is a veritable coup to me.

by Matt0330 on Nov 2, 2025 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mahtook doesn’t have any pro experience yet, so I would give the edge to Vettleson.
A bit of a leap of faith with no pro data I suppose

Its not like the kid came out of nowhere… he played for a major college program against some pretty stiff competition. We’ve had the chance to see plenty of Mahtook. 100-200 ABs against those same players he’s been facing in college and in summer wooden bat leagues wouldn’t really show us anything different that makes or breaks him.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Nov 2, 2025 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well yeah

I mean, that’s kind of what my post was built on. I’m not holding the fact that he didn’t log any minor league at bats against him in any way & I think that’s easily ascertained by the context above.

by Matt0330 on Nov 2, 2025 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I sure hope you are right.

My slight nod towards Vettleson is personal preference and in no way was meant to take away from Mahtook. Both are fairly comparable and will probably be ranked by most experts in the same range, I would think.

by mr. maniac on Nov 2, 2025 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

What's the age difference between Mikie and Drew?

If it’s close, then think of it this way…Mikie will be in Port Charlotte to start the 2012 season and Vettleson MIGHT be at Bowling Green.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do

Guyer profiles as a good 4th OFer for me. The Rays are rather spoiled when it comes to OFers and I don’t see Brandon hitting for a high enough average or hitting for enough power to take a spot from Matt Joyce.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I need a cut-and-paste macro for

“You are seriously underrating Brandon Guyer.”

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2025 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like Guyer.

I just don’t want him to ever see Sabathia again, though.

by mr. maniac on Nov 4, 2025 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

I just don’t get the number of people who are penciling him in for Durham next year. Unless Charlie Montoyo has some sort of magic double-your-walk-rate pills, I don’t see that as helping either the Rays OR Guyer.

Right now, you’re probably looking at a floor of .250/.300/.450 from Guyer, which — combined with above-average defense and the appropriate dose of Sam Fuld — is perfectly fine. And hey, he might take that step forward in the second half; who knows?

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2025 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

.450 SLG as a floor?

That seems a bit optimistic.

by mr. maniac on Nov 4, 2025 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wilking Rodriguez

He still intrigues me. He had a bit of a lost season due to a shoulder injury which is always concerning, and he never got a chance to pitch against upper level competition, but supposedly his stuff is still looking really good. I’d guess he’s still a C+ and borderline top 20 type for the Rays.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

His stuff

Where did you hear about his stuff looking good? Just curious.

by ajake57 on Nov 1, 2025 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

This was supposedly after his second start in the NYPL although it says he pitched 7 innings of 1 run ball, but really only pitched 5 innings of no run ball. They also list him at 6’ 3’’ instead of 6’ 1’’ as most sources list him. Not sure what to make of those differences though. Seems like a pretty thorough scouting-based site though.

http://www.pennleaguereport.net/2011/06/a-trio-of-flamethrowers-in-hudson-valley.html

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's some excellent depth...

…but fifteen guys at straight B or better? And “easily”? That’d be four more than last year’s Royals (or this year’s Cardinals).

I don’t see it at all, but what’s your list of players who warrant such high regard, sir?

I think John will have 8-10 farmhands at B or above, if I had to guess.

by Mekonsrock on Nov 1, 2025 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

B- or above

Braves and Rangers have 16 B- or above. Cardinals and Twins have 13+ B- or above prospects. I can see this organization have 15+ B- or above prospects.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hear you...

I interpreted (rightly or wrongly) ThankGoodness’ comment as “straight B”, rather than all B’s.

by Mekonsrock on Nov 1, 2025 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many draftees?

Guerrieri, Mahtook, Hager, (maybe) Eirman, (maybe) Goetzman……

I would think, depending on who the ranker likes, that there could be 5-6 guys.

by mr. maniac on Nov 1, 2025 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

cross-posting from DRB

Here’s everybody I can think of that’s of interest in the organization, ranked (roughly) in descending order within each position. I get 77 players that are at least worth thinking about. Obviously some of these guys at the end of their respective positions are pretty fringy, but — with input from other DRB posters — I thought this was pretty comprehensive:

RHSP (16) — Chris Archer, Taylor Guerreri, Alex Colome, Nick Barnese, Andrew Bellatti, Wilking Rodriguez, Alex Koronis, Shane Dyer, Jeff Ames, Jesse Hahn, Jacob Faria, Joe Cruz, Andres Gonzalez, Merrill Kelly, Jason McEachern, Jake Floethe

LHSP (13) — Matt Moore, Alex Torres, Enny Romero, C.J. Riefenhauser, Kyle Lobstein, Braulio Lara, Blake Snell, Ryan Carpenter, Matthew Spann, Felipe Rivero, Grayson Garvin, Ryan Carpenter, Jacob Partridge

RHRP (7) — Marquis Fleming, Matt Bush, Scott Shuman, Lenny Linsky, Dane De la Rosa, Jay Buente, Ryan Reid

LHRP (1) — Ryan Carpenter

C (7) — Justin O’Conner, Jose Lobaton, Matt Rice, Robinson Chrinos, Stephen Vogt, Luke Bailey, Oscar Hernandez

1B (6) — Cam Seitzer, Jeff Malm, John Alexander, Ismael Aguero, Henry Wrigley, Phil Wunderlich

2B (4) — Tyler Bortnick, Cole Figueroa, Ryan Brett, Robby Price

SS (7) — Hak-Ju Lee, Tim Beckham, Derek Dietrich, Jake Hager, Johnny Eierman, Juniel Querecuto, Brandon Martin

3B (3) — Tyler Goeddel, Taylor Motter, Leopoldo Correa

COF (7) — Brandon Guyer, Drew Vettleson, Josh Sale, Granden Goetzman, Kyeong Kang, Brett Nommensen, Todd Glaesmann

CF (7) — Mikie Mahtook, Kes Carter, James Harris, Joel Araujo, Ty Morrison, Cody Rogers, Deshun Dixon

DH (1) — Russ Canzler

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 2:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Not counting any guys in the Parallel league?

I think there’s a few Int’l prospects left out of this list.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, I did my best to include the VSL guys

but undoubtedly I missed a couple.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, I moved Carpenter from RP to SP

since he split time there last year, but forgot to delete the old RP reference.

If I had to get this list down to 40, I’d… have a hard time doing it. First cut would be McEachern, Floethe, Reid, Buente, Wrigley, Wunderlich, Correa, Motter, and Dixon. That’s not too tough, but after that, there are an awful lot of interesting names.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2025 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it will be interesting to see where the young guys get placed

all the picks from this year plus is it too early to give up on Sale, Vettleson was good, not great and what oh what to do with MLB the Show Catcher Oscar Hernandez. Hopefully he will be in Princeton next year and we can get a better look. Another guy I am interested in seeing where he will be placed is Matt Bush, I think he has a chance to be a very good back end reliever/closer and has great stuff but he has only bullpen value and is still raw to pitching, I’d have him in my top 20 based on his floor out of the pen being at worst a middle reliever.

by Dbullsfan on Nov 1, 2025 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Hernandez

He deserves to be in the top 40 I think, but not really too close to the top 20 for me. Those are some of the most suspect splits I’ve ever seen.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Due to his insane numbers

I have him as a Top 15 prospect in the Rays system. Honestly, suspect splits or not…to lap the league as he did in power and batting average numbers, he deserves the touting.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I haven't heard anything negative about him since coming stateside either and that is good

nobody going crazy over his power but I feel like if he was coming in and looked horrible something would have come out. I doubt he is going to come over and be Mike Piazza but if he can show 15-20 HR power and stay behind the plate (looks wise he is almost a young pudge clone) he can still be very good.

by Dbullsfan on Nov 1, 2025 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

You haven't heard anything negative about him

What positive things have you heard about him? He’s an unknown nobody playing in a little league park. Getting a mention in the top 40 will be pretty much the biggest publicity he’s had in his life to this point.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

He wasn't a huge bonus baby

So he may be one of those rare “diamonds in the rough” prospects in VZ.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah he might be

There are tons of unknown players that emerge. But he needs to be looked at as an unknown that had a very nice year in the VSL, not an unknown that had an amazing year in the VSL.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

well...

.400 greatly aided by roughly 12 HR that would have been outs in a normal park. He’d be a .351 hitter with that very reasonable adjustment. A .351 hitter with a good walk rate and probably league average power or maybe a tad more in the VSL is good, but only good enough to put him on the radar.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 2, 2025 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

How can you guarantee that those 12 HRs would have been outs?

Those could have been doubles, how would that adjust his SLG/OPS?

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

He hit 18 HR at home and 3 on the road, so some of the 18 would remain as HR, some would be doubles/triples and quite a few would be outs, but I don’t know if it would be 12 outs or 10, or whatever. He did have a very similar 2B+3B rate at home and away, but he did increase his OFB% and his LD% a bit, so there would probably be a few more expected HR and 2B+3B at home. The difference might work out to 2 more 2B+3B and 1 more HR at home. I think those 18 HR should turn into 4 HR and 2 2B+3B leaving 12 outs, based on his underlying rates.

His OBP/SLG/OPS adjusting for the home park would be .462/.515/.977. If we take away his 22 HBP+IBB (and 22 PA of course), his line is .419/.515/.934.

That is a pretty good hitter in the VSL, especially for a 17 year old catcher, but it isn’t amazing for a 69 game sample from an unknown player.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 3, 2025 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

This.

All we know is that he had good but not too meaningful stats and that some guy saw him one day and said he had a good BP.

by mr. maniac on Nov 3, 2025 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oscar

I don’t know the dimensions of the park, but the non-Oscar Hernandezes hit 36 HR at home and 12 on the road. If you manipulate the data a bit and take out the ONE player that didn’t have a favorable home HR split (1 home, 3 away), there is a 35:9 ratio. And that isn’t even as bad as Oscar’s 18:3 ratio. Furthermore, the VSL Rays pitchers gave up 37 HR this year. 28 at home and only 9 on the road. The total of hitters and pitchers: 82 at home, 24 on the road.

If he were playing in what seemed like a potentially neutral park or even a 120 or 130 type HR park (it is way more extreme than that), then he still couldn’t be higher than a C+ playing in the VSL. With what looks like the most insane HR park of all time, based on a sample more than twice the size of Oscar’s sample, he is still a C prospect for sure, but an interesting one. Not a top 30 prospect for this team though.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

A year before Oscar went HR insane

He was a light-hitting 17 yr old who wasn’t hitting at all. He must have hit a growth spurt. Also, considering Hector Guevara once owned the VSL and still is a decent prospect in full season ball, don’t discount Oscar just yet.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

He did have decent road numbers...I'm not saying the guy is terrible.

.362/.481/.496 triple slash on the road with a 14.6% K rate and 12% BB rate. That is still pretty good even for a VSL guy, especially if he can play catcher. I’m not really dismissing him as a prospect, but he is a long way away and still an unknown entity.

Here’s a telling stat: His HR per outfield fly ball was 12% on the road. That is pretty average for the majors at least (indicating he’s probably an average power hitter among all VSL players). His HR/OFB was 66.7% at home. That is historic and indicates he’s going to crush all HR records by the time he’s 26. It is a fluke, but I’m not saying it should be 100% ignored.

He is probably better at hitting home runs than the average VSL player, but not necessarily by much. His batting average is much more impressive than his power.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is why I think of him so highly

I love the power and have gushed about that enough, but the ability to hit for an insane average of .400 is basically amazing to me.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 1, 2025 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well...

Ronald Torreyes (Reds Org) had a similarly impressive year last year at age 17 in the VSL, but also did well after moving up to rookie ball that year. He got a C+ from John, but I don’t think Oscar deserves that kind of grade YET. If he hit for any kind of power away from his home park, AND played well in rookie ball, that would be different…though I’d still be skeptical of course. Ruben Tejada at age 17, had a season VERY similar to Oscar’s away numbers in 2007 and moved up to the GCL and hit very well, and failed to make the top 20 for the Mets the following season (for a very poorly graded system with many straight “Cs” getting in the top 20). Tejada did find his way to a C+ in 2010, then fell back down.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2025 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

VSL>= Stateside High School League

Let’s wait until he take a step on US soil and put up some real numbers.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 1, 2025 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

another interesting name is Tyler Bortnick

I was a bit surprised (no pun intended) that he was selected for the Rising Stars game. He has put up some good numbers, especially on the bases but was old for the FSL. I’m still not sold but he is definitely a guy on my breakout radar next year in AA.

by Dbullsfan on Nov 2, 2025 2:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Tyler Bortnick and Stephen Vogt are 2 of the most interesting prospects in Rays Org.

Vastly underrated, but future on Rays roster is kinda in doubt.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 2, 2025 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd be happier about Vogt

if Durham hadn’t moved him off of catcher; although, in fairness, they did the same thing to John Jaso right before he broke camp with the Rays.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 2, 2025 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

the best solution

I like the reviews on his scrappy style of play. I’m also a Washingtonian homer, so promoting them quickly may well be the best solution.

Taylor Webber

by Taylor Webber on Nov 5, 2025 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Ryan Brett I presume?

Or Rudy as I like to call him.

by ttnorm on Nov 5, 2025 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

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