2012 Atlanta Braves Top Prospect List: Comparison

by John Sickels on Nov 1, 2011 1:30 PM EDT

Comparing Top 2012 Braves Prospect Lists

Baseball America posted their Top 10 Atlanta Braves prospect list yesterday. You have to be a BA subscriber to access the scouting reports, but the list is free to all.

I thought it might be fun to compare their list to my list which I published back on October 12^th.

1) Sickels: Julio Teheran, RHP; Baseball America: Teheran.
2) Sickels: Arodys Vizcaino, RHP; Baseball America: Vizcaino
3) Sickels: Randall Delgado, RHP; Baseball America: Delgado
4) Sickels: Andrelton Simmons, SS; Baseball America: Simmons
5) Sickels: Sean Gilmartin, LHP; Baseball America: Gilmartin
6) Sickels: Edward Salcedo, 3B; Baseball America: Salcedo
7) Sickels: J.J. Hoover, RHP; Baseball America: Tyler Pastornicky
8) Sickels: Tyler Pastornicky, SS; Baseball America: Zeke Spruill
9) Sickels: Zeke Spruill, RHP; Baseball America; Christian Bethancourt
10) Sickels: Christian Bethancourt, C; Baseball America: Brandon Drury, 3B
13) Sickels: Brandon Drury

The only difference in the list is that they prefer young third baseman Brandon Drury over pitcher J.J. Hoover.

This is a difference in analytical styles. Drury has a higher ceiling, being a possible major league starting third baseman with good tools, however he was in the Appalachian League last year. True, he hit .347 down there, but he also posted a dismal 6/35 BB/K in 265 at-bats, which makes me cautious despite the positive scouting reports. Hoover, meanwhile, is ready for the majors now and could be effective as either a starter or reliever. Bill Bellow, who wrote the Braves list for BA, mentioned Hoover positively in the team chat but did not indicate where he would rank.

If you guys find this sort of comparison to be interesting, I will do one for each team as the BA lists come out.

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Comments

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It’s one thing for us to make our own comparisons, but it’s more interesting to hear your analysis of the differences. Thanks!

by Ryno1984 on Nov 1, 2011 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

+1

i love reading comparisons between lists and analytical differences

by blue bulldog on Nov 1, 2011 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

Cool idea for a regular feature.

Let’s see some more of these!

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by Stupendous Man on Nov 1, 2011 2:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

+1 again

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Nov 1, 2011 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

+1

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 1, 2011 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

+1

Great idea. Neat to compare the experts.

by noelman31 on Nov 1, 2011 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

+1

by TFelsmaier on Nov 1, 2011 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

ok

Ok, I will make this a regular feature.

Who would you guys rather have, Hoover or Drury?

by John Sickels on Nov 1, 2011 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

Hoover for me

I don’t see the kind of ceiling in Drury that makes up his low floor in comparison to Hoover.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 1, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Brandon Drury

I’d take JJ Hoover over Ezekiel Spruill, but I’d lean with the position player who posted a notable year at 18 (slugged over .500 with apparently strong contact skills).

by Matt0330 on Nov 1, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Hoover for me as well

i just feel like his expected value is higher

he already looks like he could be a pretty good relief pitcher by next year, with the off-chance that if he’s traded to another team they’d give him a shot to be a decent starter

i feel like most prospects like Drury don’t end up ever making the majors. in addition, he’s like four years away, so his future production has to be discounted as well.

tbf though, the difference between you and BA isn’t as simple as Hoover or Drury. it’s also, Hoover > the rest of those guys between 7-10 on BA. not that that has a huge effect on my choice (i might have Pastornicky higher than Hoover though), since i rather like Hoover. but i think it deserves pointing out.

by blue bulldog on Nov 1, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I would rather have Drury.

by FourScore199 on Nov 1, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Drury

Very bad walk rate, but the K-rate actually looks solid for a guy with solid power. I’d take a flier on him.

by Brownson on Nov 1, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Drury because it seems like Hoover was permanently moved to the pen

by Braves24 on Nov 3, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions

But...

That doesn’t affect his prospect status

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 4, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Hoover

by frenchredsox on Nov 1, 2011 3:14 PM EDT reply actions

+1

by cookiedabookie on Nov 1, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

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by Satchel Price on Nov 1, 2011 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

like

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by Pikachu on Nov 1, 2011 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

Agreement

Sickles and BA agree on all of the grade B or better prospects. Every player on the BA list is at least a B- on John’s list. As you get farther down the list, the rating is more important than the ranking, so even though BA has Drury at #10 and John has him at #13, they are both in the range of the B- guys and essentially equal. What will be interesting to see is if there is a disagreement on a higher graded prospect, aka Jed Lowrie a few years ago.

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by rwperu34 on Nov 1, 2011 7:33 PM EDT reply actions

Wow I think that would be awesome, that way none of us should have to post the BA top 10 anyways...

This is cool, great Job John

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 1, 2011 8:17 PM EDT reply actions

Hoover for me

Maybe it’s a result of Josh Vitters Fallout, but I see Drury’s walk rate as just too microscopic—-at least for now.

And thanks, John, for the top 10 comparison; it’ll be more instructive with some other systems, I’m sure, and even though these are very similar, there’s still one slightly semi-polarizing prospect. And those are the most invigorating. ;)

by Mekonsrock on Nov 1, 2011 9:15 PM EDT reply actions

This becomes more interesting

When there is actually a more significant divergence of opinion than there is here. Also, I don’t know if it would be worth approaching someone at BA to see if they would be willing to discuss it from their point of view.

by A Behemoth on Nov 2, 2011 7:12 AM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure if BA would be receptive

But this would be very cool to have them give a little insight into their train of thought on a particular player’s ranking. More so than just their quick scouting write up.

by ReyL on Nov 2, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Ah, but there's the rub with BA

If we could ask BA a question, would we be getting the consolidated opinions of 6 anonymous scouts…or 10…or 17?

For instance, John Manuel once mentioned in an ESPN chat that “multiple scouts” had described minor leaguer Dustin Pedroia as a “less toolsy version of David Eckstein.”

Was that the deeply flawed opinion of 3 scouts, or 5, or 20? How many surveyed scouts DID see Pedroia for the future (super?)star he turned out to be? And if there were any at all, how much weight did the odd entity known simply as “BA” choose to give that POV?

by Mekonsrock on Nov 2, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions