New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2009
Even a Grade A pitching prospect is a risky investment
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Wilmer Flores, SS-3B, Grade B+: I might take some flack for this, but in this case I think his upside is higher than F-Mart. If I could have just one of them, I’d pick
2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with
3) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B: I’ve liked him since high school. He’s not an ace but should be a fine inning-eater.
4) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade B: Higher ceiling than Niese, but not as refined and command still needs work.
5) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B: Assuming he’s healthy, I think he’s going to be a strong across-the-board player with a high OBP.
6) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+: Could be a star if it all comes together, but still rather raw. Considering B- but for me that’s aggressive for a rookie ball guy.
7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade C+ Pitching version of Marte: lots of talent, but skills are in the developmental stages and may not pan out.
8) Bobby Parnell, RHP, Grade C+: Stats don’t match scouting reports, but he has a good sinker and could be an effective setup man.
9) Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade C+: Another bullpen option who gets ground balls.
10) Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+: Held his own after being rushed, which you have to respect, but he may just be a good platoon bat, not a regular.
11) Ike Davis, 1B-OF, Grade C+: I will cut him some slack for now. If he can’t hit, he could convert to pitching due to his strong arm.
12) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect has a decent arm, good command, and has risen rapidly in a short period of time. Could be better than many more-heralded guys.
13) Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+: Young and projectable, but if they rush him they will be sorry.
14) Scott Shaw, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect from 2008 draft, has above average stuff and showed better command in the pros than he did at
15) Eric Beaulac, RHP, Grade C+: Another sleeper college arm, this one with a home state connection at LeMoyne.
16) Ruben Tejada, SS, Grade C+: Gets slack on the grade because he was massively rushed to the Florida State League. Controls the strike zone, has promise with the glove, very young.
17) Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C+: Another young infielder who has been pushed fast but has some upside.
18) Michael Antonini, LHP, Grade C: I cut him at the last second from the 2008 book, though he still showed up on the grade list in the back of the book. Good changeup.
19) Dylan Owen, RHP, Grade C: Polished pitcher with good command, could be swingman.
20) Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade C: Sleeper high school pick from 2008 draft bears close attention.
Others: Robert Carson, LHP; Dock Doyle, C; Lucas Duda, 1B: Jeurys Familia, RHP; Junior Guerra, RHP; Zach Lutz, 3B: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF; Francisco Pena, C: Cesar Puello, OF; Elvin Ramirez, RHP; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B: Javier Rodriguez, OF; Brant Rustich, RHP; Chris Schwinden, RHP; Tobi Stoner, RHP; Josh Thole, C; Nate Vineyard, LHP.
As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now.
If there are other guys you think should be included, let me know. Also, what is the deal with Nate Vineyard? I keep hearing he has quit baseball, but I haven’t found any details about this. I don’t want to dump him until I find out exactly what’s going on.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
The Mets continue to make a big push in
Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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111 comments
Comments
first!!!
flores over fmart…i like it.
by UrRoleModel on Dec 21, 2025 12:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Player A:
League - SAL
Age - 17
Batting stats - .333 / .389 / .505 15 BB 36 K 211 PA .
Player B:
League - APP
Age - 16/17
Batting stats - .310 / .351 / .490 12 BB 28 K 265 PA
Player A = F-Mart in 2006
Player B = Flores in 2008
What do you think is more likely for 2011?
A. Wilmer Flores (age 19) is putting up better numbers in AA than F-Mart did.
B. F-Mart (age 22) is a full time big leaguer.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 2:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
So much for one of the worst systems in the game as some on this site were claiming.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 1:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
-1
Still fairly bad IMO. Who’s going to make an impact soon? These are a bunch of lottery tickets. They have a few interesting players, so does everyone.
by number_twentyone on Dec 21, 2025 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So does everyone
Being in the middle of the pack is far different than being one of the worst systems in the game.
Niese is likely to contribute this year, Parnell will probably see time in the pen and could take a big step forward as a full time reliever, and Nick Evans is on the cusp of being a solid bench bat at the very least. Are there any potential stars who look likely to emerge in ’09? No. Are there guys who could play important roles on a contending team? Yes.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well,
About 95 of the top 100 slots go to people with B+s or above, meaning that an average team would have 3.3 people on that list. The Mets have 2, which is below average. Having only 5 below above a C+ is definitely very below average. The one strength that they have is a high amount of people above C. In general, I would say they are definitely in the bottom 10, and possibly even in the bottom 5, but not the worst system in the league
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 21, 2025 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
B+?
Do 95 of 100 really go to B+ or higher guys? It seems like there are a lot B guys in the second half of the top 100.
The Mets definitely have 3 guys in the top 100(F-Mart, Flores, Niese). Depending on how much you like him, Holt could be top 100 too. This means the Mets have 3-4 guys, closer to 3, which means they have an average number of guys in the top 100.
by supermets on Dec 21, 2025 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have my book with me
But I remember only a handful of them being Bs. I could be wrong, though
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 21, 2025 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still disagree on Flores vs. F-Mart
I’ve been saying the same thing Kevin Goldstein said about this argument, Flores is essentially what F-Mart was when he made his stateside debut. If they push Flores to be in AA by the time he’s 18, there’s a good chance you see fairly similar results.
The system is improved, but its still the lower end of average. But considering they traded four of their top five prospects at the end of last year, and the only one of those four to graduate was Gomez, you have to be a bit impressed with the turnaround. This top five is clearly more well balanced than it was a year ago, and probably higher in quality as well. Lots of C+, which speaks to the combination of low-upside/high polish types combine with vice the opposite.
I find it interesting that there is a wide variety of opinion on the disparity between Flores and Marte. Some people seem to feel that despite the overwhelming Flores-hype, they’re not that far apart, but here they’re a full letter grade apart. I can see putting Marte and Mejia on the same level grade-wise though.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 1:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Santana trade
But considering they traded four of their top five prospects at the end of last year, and the only one of those four to graduate was Gomez, you have to be a bit impressed with the turnaround.
Let’s hope this bunch turns out better than the steaming pile of crap that was sent to Minnesota (excepting Gomez who the jury is still out on).
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I’m looking at last year’s Mets list from this site, and did Sickels really give Guerra a B+? That seems awfully high to me, at least in retrospect. I remember liking him, but not on the level of the B+ guys here or even Gomez or Niese. The biggest comparative difference I can see is that Holt is a much better looking prospect than Mulvey, but Mulvey might still have a chance to carve out a career in Minnesota.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that was before Guerra’s velocity went in the tank.
by adropofvenom on Dec 21, 2025 6:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guerra's velocity was always a myth
pushed by Met fans, based on optimistic projections held by a minority of scouts.
by number_twentyone on Dec 22, 2025 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Just the Mets fans who “made up” that his velocity had spiked to 91+. Yep, just us. Wasn’t anything we were told by scouts. Nope. What a great system us Mets fans have. We fooled Minnesota big time.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 23, 2025 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
you did fool Minnesota pretty well, in all fairness!
by alskor on Dec 23, 2025 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Omar fooled Minnesota. I think my real point was that it wasn’t a conspiracy by Mets fans as #21 seemed to suggest.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 24, 2025 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fooling Minnesota
By the time Omar jumped in to the Santana sweepstakes, Minnesota didn’t have much of a choice. Though I think they probably should have taken the draft picks over the package they got.
by Fanon on Dec 24, 2025 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was kidding
I just meant it was a good deal for the Mets.
by alskor on Dec 25, 2025 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
When I saw Guerra he had a great change, but at best average FB and CB.
And you had a bunch of people running around claiming mid-90s.
I couldn’t find any who had actually seen it.
But when BA claimed he was showing a plus curve as well, and ranked him in the top-25 mid-season, is when I started to buy in some.
by acerimusdux on Dec 23, 2025 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but, but...
every Mets fan on this board was singing the praises of Deolis Guerra this time last year! Yeah, his numbers suck, but he’s so big and dreamy!
by alskor on Dec 21, 2025 3:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers
His numbers didn’t suck. He put up a 1.17 WHIP as an 18 year old in High-A and a 1.18 WHIP as a 17 year old in the Sally League. Combined with his pedigree as a top signing, there was every reason to believe in his promise.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still feel like a B+ was too high
There was SO much projection to him a year ago, I don’t see how his status a year ago is all that different from Mejia’s now. They’re different pitchers sure, but despite his size Mejia clearly has the better arm and he had more success at 18 in A-ball.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NYPL
The NYPL is two levels lower than the FSL. Mejia had more success at the same age in short season ball, while Guerra debuted a level higher than Mejia.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was Guerra FSL?
I thought he was SAL….checking the stats…ah you’re right, my bad. I still don’t see why Guerra should have been graded that much higher than Mejia a year ago. They seem to have the same spot in the system, the raw arm with light years to go but loads of potential.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
If a guy’s producing in the FSL, it usually means he’s not too far away from the majors. If a guy’s producing in the NYPL, he’s probably still very, very far away, particularly if he’s not a recent college draftee.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
There’s a big difference between leagues. Just one step might seem trivial, but, the biggest jump is generally A ball to AA. The difference is measured in quality of fastballs and hitters who can hit those fastballs enough to be selective about it. When it does come, they don’t really miss it in AA ball. Until that happens the hype around a prospect really amounts to a lot of talk based on mechanics and stuff.
by basemonkey on Dec 21, 2025 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In 2007
we were looking at a low 90s fastball that occasionally went up to the mid-90s. And he was huge. and 18. and his numbers weren’t bad either. AND he had a nice changeup.
This year, everything that could have possibly went wrong went wrong.
Prospects, every last one of them, are unpredictable. An injury here, a slump there. We can never truly predict the future of developing players, or players moving to a different league.
by METSMETSMETS on Dec 21, 2025 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im pretty sure you were a big Guerra fan
so I guess that goes to show who is really stupid.
by alskor on Dec 21, 2025 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the stupid one
is the one completely using hindsight to pump himself up. we’ve all been off on predictions, the dopes are the ones who make arrogant posts acting like they haven’t.
and yes i was a big fan of his and i’m not ready to close the book on a goddamn 19yr old who started pitching late. THAT is stupid.
by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2025 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't give up on any 19 yr old...
If he were able to enter the draft, it’s quite likely he may be a 1st round pick this season.
That being said, pitchers are flashes in the pan so often that I sort of start out with young pitching prospects almost already “counting them out” somewhat. It’s not until they are within a year or so of the majors when you have to really take notice. Yes, some highly touted talented kids do become quality pitchers, but, most extremely talented young pitchers don’t make it. The fact that these kids mostly flameout does not mean they aren’t talented or gifted. The fact is, to reach the majors, you already have to be freakishly talented just to enter the conversation. The ones who become longtime majorleaguers of quality are just “Freaks of the Freaks of Nature,” so to speak.
by basemonkey on Dec 21, 2025 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely
And I remember really liking Guerra, and maybe I would have graded him a B+ at the time, but it seems like that would have been granting him an awful lot in hindsight. The data was limited and although there was a lot to like, it just doesn’t seem like enough. And being as objective as I can, I feel like I like all the B and B+ guys quite a bit more than I remember liking Guerra. I remember feeling like he was a project, a damn good one, but a project nonetheless.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think of it this way...
The usual definition of a B prospect is a prospect of high or above-average quality with maybe one thing that holds him back. For me, I consider the grade as only a contextual marker for looking at prospects. Just another tool among many others. B prospects in AAA ball are a different brand altogether than B prospects in Lower A ball. B prospects in lower A ball are mostly based on stuff, projection, frame, etc. whereas, the B prospects of a higher level tend to be based on the same projectable attributes reinforced by experience. I take that stuff much more seriously.
For me, looking at prospects of high promise (esp. pitchers) in A ball is a lot like predicting how well a marathon runner will do based on his first 3 mile leg time. Sure it can inform your opinion of them and may predict a great final 23 mile run, but, that’s also assuming a linear (or close to) progression of improvement, which rarely happens anyways.
by basemonkey on Dec 21, 2025 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that being said...
…I don’t mean to discount those “runners” who show that they can perform at an exceptional level. That does matter. It’s just that players have to be “exceptional” just to be an “average” major leaguer.
by basemonkey on Dec 21, 2025 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very well put
I like that analogy a lot. I’m still kind of getting my feat wet in prospect analysis, but that sounds about right to me for sure.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Hindsight is 20/20. EVERYBODY makes mistakes and actling like you are better then somebody else because you were right about ONE prospect is just immature.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2025 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about acting like your team's prospects are always awesome
even in the face of overwhelming evidence they are not… what about that?
by alskor on Dec 22, 2025 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ALSO
what about constantly making posts like “wow what a stupid comment,” because of some perceived slight in the past where I made them realize one of their team’s prospects wasnt all that great?
by alskor on Dec 22, 2025 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How's your shoulder?
Because, all due respect, that chip looks awfully heavy.
by Fanon on Dec 22, 2025 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guy is riding me in every thread.
Just because I disagree with him once.
How would you respond if you posted something of substance and someone’s full response was “wow what a stupid comment”
by alskor on Dec 22, 2025 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alskor, I appreciate your opinion in general. You’ve had a lot of good things to say. But, man, when something comes up about a Mets prospect or top ten list, I’ve never seen anyone get more negative. I think that’s the chip Fanon is talking about.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 23, 2025 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really have nothing against the Mets
I just cant say anything about the Mets here without this one guy b****ing about it.
by alskor on Dec 25, 2025 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stefan Welch
John, was he anywhere near the Honorable Mention section? I really like what I am reading about him. Great work with Flores over FMart, I love that!
by Ralpho316 on Dec 21, 2025 1:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ralpho, you might want to check this out
I was able to catch Welch play during Savannah’s final homestand. Check it out.
Welch Report
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com
by Baseball Handyman on Dec 21, 2025 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vineyard
He had rotator cuff surgery in May. I’m not sure if anything has changed since.
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/minor_leagues/archives/2008/05/around_the_base_16.html
by rdf8585 on Dec 21, 2025 2:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Flores a full grade over Marte?
I dont think you can justify Flores being B+ and Marte at C+
Either drop Flores half a grade or bump Marte up half a grade
1. Martinez B+
2. Flores B
3. Niese B
4. Holt B
5. Havens B-
6. Marte C+
Im also curious to see where you would have the prospects traded to Seattle ranked
by BLieve on Dec 21, 2025 3:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, it’s hard to justify Flores being a full level above kids like Marte and Mejia, and so far above Puello that he’s completely not ranked (At least not in the Top 20). Marte’s stateside debut was nearly as impressive as Flores, although yes, on a level lower, and Mejia probably has the best raw stuff in the Mets system. I don’t think it’s a case of him overrating Flores as much as it is him playing it safe on the latter three.
I think he overrated Moviel, Shaw, and Tejada. Moviel is huge so scouts love him, but he still throws only low 90s with fringe average secondary stuff. Shaw is your classic 4 pitch, none of them are particularly great control pitcher (See Owen), and Tejada really hasn’t ever shown a power swing. I personally would have had players like Rustich (Still throws 95 with a good Slider, just working as a starter now), Puello (Upside, Upside, Upside), and Josh Thole (Still a high OBP catcher, and only played the position for one year so take the poor defense reports with a grain of salt) in front of them.
by adropofvenom on Dec 21, 2025 6:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where would the guys dealt to Seattle fit in here?
I would imagine at least Carp and Cleto would be in there somewhere.
by JonBBT on Dec 21, 2025 3:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
IMO
based on my idea of john’s thinking, carp fits in at #10, above davis but just below evans. you can make the case for carp over evans based on his huge stride in bb/k% this season and the much better OBP but the superior power that evans showed probably clinches it, especially since we’re talking about first basemen here.
i view cleto as a similar pitcher as jenrry mejia, super dominant fb and not much else consistently. but i’d bet cleto would slot in below mejia as his secondary stuff has less potential plus he was a bit under the radar with us. but i don’t see how you can place him much below moviel as they had nearly identical seasons in savannah yet cleto was a full year younger. if you really buy into moviel’s projectability, as many do, i suppose you would place cleto around #16.
by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2025 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mejia and Cleto
I consider Cleto much lower than Mejia. Cleto throws hard but he has no secondary stuff and he didn’t do well at all this year. He didn’t even strike guys out. Mejia is much more advanced and I think the best case scenario for Mejia is ace and the best case for Cleto is great closer.
by supermets on Dec 21, 2025 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats what the numbers suggest
But the reports also say that Mejia’s a mechanical nightmare, and has a lot longer way to go than the numbers suggest. I still agree, I thought there was some hype in Cleto that caught on that I just didn’t really see. He may throw hard, but I still haven’t heard any reports or seen any data that convinces me he’ll be much more than Kunz or Parnell in a few years, which is something, but for a guy whose a few years away from that, I just can’t get that excited about him.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cleto
He may not get the strikeouts, but he’s great at getting ground balls. That said, I still rank Mejia a bit higher, but I don’t think the difference is that great.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carp
It’s not that impressive for a guy to make great strides in bb/k when he’s repeating the level and wasn’t rushed a lot on his way there, as is the case with Carp.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice job
One of the real challenges here is probably ranking some of the IFAs. There just doesn’t seem to be as much good information available on those guys, relative to US players who come through the draft. This is something that I think major publications and organizations with lots of resources need to do better addressing. I don’t think I’d do any different than John really in ranking these guys; I’d rather be conservative on guys at lower levels unless they really stand out. And I’m also wary of some of these guys getting over hyped. But, that’s probably where a lot of the upside is in this system; if some more of those international signings turn out to be for real.
As far as guys left out, I don’t see any obvious omissions. The only guys I can think of would be more on the bubble. Nick Carr would be one possibility—good arm, but struggled with command and secondary stuff, looks more like a bullpen arm. Maybe Sean Ratliff is on the tail end there, as a guy with good upside, but a bit of a project.
by acerimusdux on Dec 21, 2025 5:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My only source on Vineyard
is here:
http://forums.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=228&f=1381&t=3555894&p=2
I don’t know whether this has actually been reported anywhere. Maybe we need to get Adam Rubin on the case.
by acerimusdux on Dec 21, 2025 6:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dan Murphy
John, I know he lost rookie eligibility but what grade would you have given Murphy and where on the list would he have likely been?
by eastin on Dec 21, 2025 9:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Exactly the question
… that I wanted to know
by Flynn Blake on Dec 21, 2025 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
murphy
Grade B-, a very strong role player but not a star.
by John Sickels on Dec 21, 2025 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of guys to keep an eye on
Alonzo Harris - If he can cut down on the strikeouts he is a sleeper. Despite signing too late to play in 2007, he showed nice speed and power potential in the GCL, especially against righties
Rafael Fernandez - His bat is streaky, though when he is on he has had some nice hitting streaks
Josh Stinson - Extreme groundball pitcher who I think is better than the numbers indicate because of lack of defense behind him
by mtk52983 on Dec 21, 2025 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Puello
I agree with most of this list, especially Havens and the difference between Flores and Marte, but Puello not being in the Top-15 is a joke.
Antonini and Allen out, Puello and Familia in.
by Fernando Martinez on Dec 21, 2025 11:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
++++++
Puello seems very similar to Carlos Gomez. His potential places him in my top 10. I hope he is in Savannah. It’s about time they sent some decent prospects our way. <——- From Savannah
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com
by Baseball Handyman on Dec 21, 2025 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Top 10?
I like him but that sounds like a little too much. I probably have him around 20. Very high potential but he hasn’t shown enough to be that close to Marte/Flores.
by supermets on Dec 21, 2025 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Will Puello be playing for Brooklyn next year?
by Bravesin07 on Dec 21, 2025 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
I haven’t heard much. It wouldn’t surprise me if he went to A-ball though(Savannah).
by supermets on Dec 21, 2025 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
i’d be surprised if he didn’t start in savannah. the conservative move would be brooklyn but the mets are rarely conservative with their young int’l guys.
in fact, i think you may see an IF of marte, flores and alonzo harris with cesar puello in the OF at savannah to start next year.
by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2025 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Middle of the Pack
Looks like a solid farm system, especially once you consider that it was made after the Putz trade. It’s probably on the lower end of average, but it seems that a lot of people were wrong in saying that it was one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
by rsvandy on Dec 21, 2025 2:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Not top 15, but around 18-22 sounds about right. It’s not a terrible system at all. Decent back-end of the rotation depth(Gee, Antonini, Owen, Stoner, etc), and a lot of high potential guys.
by supermets on Dec 21, 2025 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a little optimistic but you might be right
I’d probably be in the 20-25 camp, but we’re dealing with details
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 21, 2025 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I might say more like #20-24.
It’s a decent mix of supportive players for a contending team. At times it seems just short of necessary to fully provide for the major league roster. That being said they took advantage of favorable trade markets and pulled off some nice trades a la Johan.
Their saving grace has been Omar’s commitment to attracting Latin talent. That being said, the Mets have never been a team who stays with young guys for a longterm commitment. It sounds much more like a Mets philosophy to use their farm system as an asset to use for trades, outside of the rare exceptional types like Wright.
by basemonkey on Dec 22, 2025 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The only reason I grade them down is...
…because they don’t seem to have that one bonafide covet-able stud prospect nearly every system around 15-18 at least has. This is arguable and I’m not trying to start anything. I just tend to grade down toolsy prospects who have yet to perform with good command and/or strikezone judgment.
by basemonkey on Dec 22, 2025 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's probably true
There isn’t a monster stud prospect in this system right now, but there’s also a really nice mix of everything else.
Yes, a lot of the young guys who had monster debuts in 2008 are lottery tickets, but every ticket you buy increases your chances of hitting big. With Flores, Marte, Mejia, Holt, Moviel and even Martinez you have a ton of helium potential. You have to figure that of that group, at least a couple make big jumps, a couple probably stay about where they are, and a couple will probably bust. Any one of those guys except maybe Moviel looks could probably jump a full grade next year with a quality 2009 season, and most could probably drop nearly a full grade too.
You also have a few guys that may not be studs, but seem like good bets to get by with decent skillsets and lots of polish like Niese, Havens and Gee. The big time right handed fastballs on Kunz and Parnell means even if their upside is low, they’ll have a good chance to be useful relievers.
Then you have a handful of interesting sleepers like Stoner, Shaw, Beaulac, Antonini, Allen, Lutz, Puello, maybe Thole to go along with a handful of new international signings (I had heard Omar went light on the international market in 2008, but Aderlin Rodriguez sounds interesting). Most of these guys probably won’t amount to much, but one or two might turn into decent prospects. They don’t count for much now, but having a group like this could help make up for lacking 1st and 2nd round draft picks next year.
So I guess my question is, if a year from now this is how the Mets Top list looks:
Fernando Martinez, A-
Wilmer Flores, B+
Reese Havens, B+
Jefrey Marte, B
Brad Holt, B
Dylan Gee, B-
Josh Thole, C+
Jenry Mejia, C
Ceasar Puello, C
Ike Davis, C
Will that be an improvement? It’d be a step forward up top, but depth could be even more of a problem than it is now.
Disclaimer: I’m not making a prediction on what the system will look like in a year, this is just an example of a possible outcome that seems somewhat plausible.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Must disagree on a few
This is all predictions of course so there is no right or wrong
Considering FMart has a good but not great year, he will keep his B+ rating since I think he is on the cusp between B and B+ right now. I think Havens will never be rated higher than B+ and will likely stay at B next year since he is good at most but great at none. Holt I expect to go up in value and certainly Mejia and Puello as well. (You think he’s just going to plain fail this year huh?) I believe Davis will rebound and show everyone why he was a number 1 pick. Grade B for Davis.
by BLieve on Dec 23, 2025 5:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Disclaimer: I’m not making a prediction on what the system will look like in a year, this is just an example of a possible outcome that seems somewhat plausible.
I wasn’t saying that’s what I thought would happen, I was just making a contrasting example where the Mets were stronger at the top but weaker in the middle and wondering how that would effect the view on the overall system. In this case, one of the “teenage lottery tickets” makes a huge jump and one drops off (Marte, Mejia). I’m optimistic about both those guys, but with such young players, even ones as talented as they are, you have to account for attrition rate.
The only two guys on that list that I really put any kind of thought into are Martinez and Holt, otherwise it was pretty arbitrary and just an example for arguments sake. Here’s my reasoning on those two:
1. I’m a big Martinez believer, and I feel like he’s shown a ton of improvement. It would not surprise me to see his development pick up very fast now that he’s 20 and catching up in age to his competition level. He made some great strides last year, and I think he has a great chance of continuing to pick up the pace in AAA. What would he need to do in AAA to become an A-? Is .290 / .350 / .470 all that much of a stretch? Its pretty much the same BB level he put up in AA, its a little bit of extra BA and a significant (but not unrealistic) jump in power, which makes sense as he really fills into his frame, as players of his age often do, and it fits with the trend of improvement he’s shown in AA and the DWL (where he has 6 HR about 150 ABs). If he puts up that line as one of the youngest players in AAA and earns a September callup, that’s an A- prospect in my book, easily Top 30 and possibly Top 20.
As for Holt, I’m worried about the possibility that they may jump him straight to AA. If that’s the case, there will be a significant adjustment period. He’s really only been a dominant pitcher for a year, and it was in college and SSA. Depending on how long it takes him to make the adjustments, its going to hurt his final season stats, and that’s going to hurt his perceived value. I still really like him, and I feel like if they just let him start in St. Lucie he’d be nearly a lock for a B+ or perhaps even an A-, depending on how the curve and change come along. But in AA, if he puts up a 4.50 ERA in the first half he’ll have a hard time cracking a B by the end of the season.
As for Mejia, I’m very optimistic, and that wasn’t a real prediction so much as an example of
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 23, 2025 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It really depends how you view those high ceiling IFAs
John tends to be conservative as well on the grades for some of those high ceiling guys at lower levels. If you buy into them more, I guess this system looks stronger. Kevin Goldstein at BP, for example, had Marte along with Flores and Martinez at 4 stars, and Mejia along with Holt, Niese, and Havens, at three stars, and had Pena and Puello also very high, with some very positive comments about Aderlin Rodriguez as well.
If you buy into all that, I can see 15 or maybe even potentially higher. If you are more skeptical, I can see 20 or lower.
I was thinking around 17-18 before the Seattle trade, and thinking it maybe dropped to around 20 with the depth they lost there. But I really wasn’t ranking a lot of those international guys highly either. I’ve been hearing some good things about a lot of them, but almost to the point where I think they can’t possibly all be that good, so I’ve been skeptical.
So I guess we’ll see as these guys move up to higher levels how good they really are. But I think that’s where the real upside potential probably is. There’s probably even more upside potential in John’s C prospects in that list above than in the C+ guys.
by acerimusdux on Dec 22, 2025 3:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I should note
That I haven’t actually ranked all the farm systems. I just meant somewhat below average - if average is 15, a few slots below.
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by OldProspects on Dec 22, 2025 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thole
I’m also surprised Thole gets just a mention in “others”. I know we’re not supposed to put much stock in the back-end of the grades, but I don’t think Thole belongs in the same category as Dock Doyle or even Fransisco Pena.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I’m optimistic about him. He might be a great third catcher/backup first baseman/bat off the bench.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thole
If he can’t stick at catcher, he won’t make the majors. If he can become an average to above average fielder, I could see him being an average starter because of his high OBP or at worst a very good backup. But the key is improving his defense.
by supermets on Dec 21, 2025 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
I think his discipline might allow him to be a backup even if his defense doesn’t end up being average, as he’s the kind of useful bat off the bench that could play a bit of first, a bit of catcher, and pinch hit while being a contributor. If he ends up with average or above average defense, he’s a very solid catcher.
by Fanon on Dec 21, 2025 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have him very close to Pena
Pena has the higher ceiling, more power potential, likely more defensive potential, and was only 18. Thole is closer to the majors, impressed at a higher level, and in the Arizona Fall League, but is still most likely not more than a backup with a decent stick. I happen to like Thole at 15-20, but you really have to believe in his bat to justify that. And the bat doesn’t have a high ceiling either (not that much power potential there).
On top of that, prior to this season he had a career .679 OPS. A lot of people are going to want to see a repeat performance before they believe this year wasn’t a fluke. Another way to look at it, at age 20 last year in the SAL, he wasn’t any more accomplished a hitter than Pena was this year at 18. So while I like him there, despite all that, I’m being pretty aggressive with that ranking. A lot of people will have him around 30.
by acerimusdux on Dec 21, 2025 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pena
I mean, I get the projectability and that he’s been young for his levels, but he’s not F-Mart. I wouldn’t say he’s accomplished all that much. Thole may not have the ceiling Pena has, and he may not even be a great bet to reach his ceiling, but between his polished bat and his age and level, I feel like he’s shown plenty for me to put him firmly ahead of Pena on the Mets Catcher depth chart. Fanon makes a really good point about Thole too, that he may be a bit of an oddity in that he might be able to survive as a backup with average or below defense, simply because he has decent plate discipline and can play a few other positions too.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plate discipline
At higher levels, plate discipline tends to not help much without some pop there as well. big league pitchers won’t walk a guy who isn’t otherwise an offensive threat. That said, I do think there’s more pop there than he’s yet shown. Again, having seen him play enough, I am a believer in the bat. But if all I were going on were the numbers, I think I might be more skeptical.
by acerimusdux on Dec 22, 2025 2:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Although
It was as much a surprise that Doyle’s in the same group as Pena and Thole. Doyle looks decent to me, but a middle round college player having a decent but unspectacular season in Rookie ball, I feel like I’d need to see more before I started considering him in the same group.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2025 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doyle
I’m not sure what that one is about either. On another board I like, there did seem to be a lot of Doyle fans though. But, 5th round pick, I don’t remember hearing much about him at draft time, and then they apparently didn’t think he was polished enough to send to Brooklyn with most of the other college picks. I guess maybe he’s a good defender.
by acerimusdux on Dec 22, 2025 2:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do remember him from draft day
I actually felt like he was one of later round sleepers, I remember reading some positive reviews on him, he had some great power numbers his last year in college, but he didn’t translate it at all to the pros.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 3:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doyle
I remember John being pretty high on him, pegging him as the potential steal of the draft.
by Fanon on Dec 22, 2025 8:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doc
I was wondering, actually, if John could shed light on Doyle. I remember the “sleeper” pick talk and all and was excited about the idea of Doyle becoming a future power hitting catcher…. what do the scouts say now?
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 22, 2025 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pena
Pena is nothing to me until he actually shows something. So far he’s shown piss poor defense combined with a bat that would make Rey Ordonez wince. I haven’t lost all hope, but at this I have about the same expectations as I would for a guy picked in the 40s.
by Fanon on Dec 22, 2025 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Phillips Orta
Can any Met’s fan tell me about Phillips Orta? I picked him up in a deal in a very deep league because he was on BA’s list last year and looked like he had some decent numbers. I thought he might at least get a mention.
by NMUWildcat027 on Dec 21, 2025 5:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Orta
I don’t know that much about him but as far as I know, he has a decent fastball and a good curveball. I’ve heard people say he could make a very good reliever, but his high end is probably a 2 or 3 starter.
by supermets on Dec 21, 2025 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How deep?
I can’t imagine it’s so deep that he’d be a keeper at this point. The Mets system looked pretty thin a year ago. So a lot of guys made lists who might not have otherwise. He had decent numbers this year, but most of it was out of the pen, and still at a very low level. He may still be interesting, but, there are an awful lot of guys just in this system I would like more.
Just from the Mets, the pitching prospects I would take before Orta include: Holt, Niese, Gee, Mejia, Parnell, Kunz, Rustich, Moviel, Shaw, Carson, and Antonini.
by acerimusdux on Dec 22, 2025 3:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
26 Teams - 225 Man Rosters
I traded for him because I have 3 years before I would have to put him on my 40 man roster. I think he looks interesting enough in that situation. I just got into this league, and I thank those that have seen the lower level of these systems to help me with some of these guys that I have not been able to find a lot of information about. With 225 man rosters, there is a lot of room for projects to dream about.
by NMUWildcat027 on Dec 22, 2025 8:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow 225*26
Yeah, that’s pretty deep. I’m really not sure on him, but yeah he may well be one of the top 5000 players in the minors! I’m not going to be much help on guys who haven’t yet appeared in A+ ball, I guess. But he probably still is one of the guys who should be in the mix for a spot in Savannah next year.
by acerimusdux on Dec 22, 2025 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Er...
He looks like an organizational player to me. And I’m a Mets homer and haven’t really heard anything about him. The guy was a 22 year old in Rookie ball who put up a good ERA with mediocre peripherals.
by Fanon on Dec 22, 2025 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Despite my love for Flores
I’m going to have to argue his grade being too high. And Marte and Mejia’s too low.
Flores is just as raw as Marte and Mejia, if not more so. They are all very young, and they all have great talent. I don’t believe that there is so large a discrepancy between them all. Plus, these grades will change year to year, and if you give Flores a B next year, it’s almost a loss of all confidence (or at least that’s what it signals).
by METSMETSMETS on Dec 21, 2025 5:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
John
What happened to Brant Rustich?
He looked like he was an up and comer and was in BA’s top 10 last year. Nowhere to be found on the lists except as an “other.”
"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-
by future on Dec 22, 2025 10:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Unique situation
My understanding is that he’s had a bit of injury trouble and their moving him slowly. He’s got the stuff to start, so the Mets want to try him as a starter, but he closed in college so they’re being cautious with the conversion I think. Look for him to move quickly if he can get healthy.
by Fanon on Dec 22, 2025 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rushing players
Apparently there’s some buzz that the Mets might rush Brad Holt Straight to AA. How does everyone feel about this? Seems like a pretty big mistake to me. Why not give him a month or two to polish his curve against the FSL hitters first? It seems likely he’d be in AA by midseason anyway if his learning curve continues at the pace its been going at. Rushing him straight there might disrupt that and set him back and take away all the confidence he built up in the last year. Remember, this isn’t a kid who was super dominant throughout his college career, he turned a corner in 2008 and shot up draft boards and continued to make outstanding progress, but he’s only a year or so removed from being little more than an average college arm.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mistake
I really think that would be a mistake since he’s really only got one pitch at this point and is working on consistency with the others. He needs to use A ball as a chance to learn those pitches.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 22, 2025 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on if he's ready
If the secondary stuff has progressed as much as some are saying, he might be ready for AA.
If you think he’s going to spend most of the season there anyway, might as well start him there.
Planning on moving guys around after only a few weeks is just disruptive of the rosters; some other player then has to start at AA and be demoted. I’d rather they put the guy where he fits best, and then consider promotions at mid-season.
Also might depend on whether you see him as a SP or RP. There were good reports on the curve, but I wonder about the change-up. If he still has a lot of work to do on the CU, I could see him maybe being better of at St. Lucie for the first half. If they’d rather have him ready quick as a bullpen arm though, he only needs the two pitches, and may as well be in AA.
by acerimusdux on Dec 22, 2025 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
I would think acquiring K-Rod and Putz makes rushing Holt into the bullpen less of a need.
by Lunkwill Fook on Dec 22, 2025 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still disagree
Even if he starts in AA, they should at least leave him in extended ST instead of sending him out to pitch in the cold April weather in Bingo. And in that case, why not just let him spend April in the FSL? He’d be in the ST complex and warm weather.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
I’m pretty confident they see him as a starter, mostly because he really maintains his stuff 100+ pitches deep. In his last outing in college I believe he threw 139 pitches and was clocked at 94mph in the 9th inning. It would be foolish to waste an arm like that by defaulting it to the bullpen this early on, and I’m pretty confident the Mets know that.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lol one more
As for its disruptiveness to the rosters, you don’t have to do that much juggling. There are plenty of off-days in April and you’re going to get lots of rainouts in Bing. You could have a guy like Tobi Stoner move to the bullpen, or you could start Gee at AA and move him up to replace Niese in AAA when the MLB club’s need for a 5th starter kicks in. Even if Niese wins the big league job, he probably won’t break camp with the club. They might prefer he stay in Florida, or they might let him make a couple starts for Buffalo, in which case you either have to promote someone or bring in a guy who was left in extended ST anyway.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not a big concern
Obviously, if there’s good reason to keep him in Florida a few weeks, what’s best for one of their top prospects is going to take precedence; yeah they can schlep some organizational guy around as needed.
But, I’m just wondering, is there really any reason for it? Yes, you have cold weather. I’m not sure what the concern is there. Does it increase injury risk? In that case, maybe you play it cautious with your first round arm. But, obviously it’s going to cold every spring in Citi Field as well. Part of me thinks guys ought to get used to it.
To me, it’s not that big a deal where guys are assigned, as long as it’s within reason. If a guy has to play up or down a level for a couple of months, that’s not going to hurt. So, the question is if he’s ready. If they think he’s ready, go ahead and assign him to AA. If he’s not ready, expect him to take at least a half season in A+, and maybe it even takes a full season. The idea that promoting him would be a “big mistake” one month, and then fine a month later doesn’t make sense to me.
At that point, yeah I don’t see the point in disrupting the roster more than needed.
by acerimusdux on Dec 22, 2025 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Problem is
You’re assuming its clear whether or not he’s “ready”. I don’t think that’s the case. He might be, I wouldn’t completely rule it out, but at the same time, he might be pretty far from AA competition. His pro experience consists of a season at SSA, and he only had one great year in college. Letting him start in A+ is just a way of minimizing risk and gauging whether or not he’s ready. I guess if he comes out this spring guns blazing and is pumping plus power curves with consistency, then you can get him straight to AA, but I don’t see any reason to expect that.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
Spring training will give us a better idea of where he should be at. Any word on whether he’ll get an invite?
by Fanon on Dec 22, 2025 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Haven't heard
But just knowing the Mets, my guess is he gets a look but is among the first cuts.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Misunderstood
That’s as it should be. I was saying that it will give us a much better idea of where he ought to start the year.
by Fanon on Dec 22, 2025 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
But even if they just leave him in minor league camp, they’ll have to decide where to put him afterwards. My concern is that I think the Mets tend to be too aggressive with prospects, and Holt’s a guy that I would prefer they were a bit more conservative with. The amount of data on him is very limited, its very promising, but very limited too.
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 22, 2025 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs






