Not a Rookie: Jacoby Ellsbury
by John Sickels on Mar 28, 2025 5:06 PM EDT
17 comments
Not a Rookie: Jacoby Ellsbury
Jacoby Ellsbury is one of my favorite players. Although I usually prefer power hitters to speed demons, I just like watching him play and have since he was in college at Oregon State. I'm not a Red Sox fan, so it's not a matter of team bias. My other favorite speed guy is Denard Span, which may be because I'm a Twins fan, but in the case of Ellsbury it has nothing to do with team fandom. Let's take a look at Jacoby, examining his past and his possible future.
Jacoby Ellsbury was drafted in the first round out of Oregon State in 2005, 23rd overall, with the pick the Red Sox got from the Angels for losing Orlando Cabrera as a free agent. A star in college, he'd hit .406/.495/.582 with 26 steals, and was expected to move quickly through the system due to his combination of tools and polished skills. He hit .317/.418/.432 in 35 games for Lowell in the New York-Penn League after signing, swiping 23 bases in 26 attempts, while posting a +28 percent OPS in a pitcher's league. I gave him a Grade B in the 2006 book. The main question for Ellsbury was how much power he would develop.
Assigned to Class A Wilmington to begin 2006, Ellsbury hit .299/.379/.418 in that notorious hitter's park, with 25 steals in 34 attempts over 61 games. Promoted to Double-A at midseason, he hit .308/.387/.434 with 16 steals in 15 games. His combination of speed, plate discipline, and contact hitting ability was highly impressive, and he drew good reviews for his defense as well. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2007 book, slotting as the Number 21 hitting prospect. Projecting his major league future, I wrote "pencil him in as a .280/.350/.400 hitter with 30-steal potential in the short run, escalating to something like .300/.380/.430 at his peak."
Ellsbury began 2007 with Double-A Portland, hitting a stunning .452/.518/.644 with eight steals in his first 17 games. Promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, he hit .298/.360/.380 with 33 steals in 87 games. He ended the season in the majors, with a .353/.394/.509 mark in 33 games for Boston, swiping nine bases without being caught. Although he didn't show a lot of home run power, everything else was there, and I gave him a Grade A- in the 2008 book, ranking him as the Number Eight hitting prospect in baseball.
His debut may have caused some unrealistic expectations, and some people actually seemed disappointed by his 2008 rookie season: he hit .280/.336/.394 (close to my original prophecy from '07), though he led the American League with 50 steals. Last year he got the batting average up to .301, with a .355 OBP and a .415 SLG, swiping 70 bags.
He's a career 85% stealer, so his steals are sabermetrically very valuable; unlike some speed guys, he's not giving away more than he takes by running so much. I do think he might hit for a bit more power in time; I could see him having a 15-homer season at some point. I also think he can and will draw more walks eventually, boosting his OBP so that it's not quite so dependent on the batting average. I still think the "peak" season I talked about a couple of years ago (.300/.380/.430) will happen.
His defense in center has drawn a lot of comment, as this Fangraphs article makes clear. He's a left fielder now with the arrival of Mike Cameron, but I wouldn't be afraid to play Ellsbury in center field in most parks.
Sim Scores give Ellsbury the following comparables through age 25: Roberto Kelly, Shannon Stewart, Jigger Statz (a guy from the 20s), Ethan Allen (another guy from the 20s and 30s), Sam West (ditto), Danny Litwhiler (from the 40s), Alex Metzler (from the 20s), Wally Moon, Luis Polonia, and Jo-Jo Moore (from the 20s). Lots of throw-back names there. PECOTA comps are names that will be more familiar to most of you: Juan Pierre, Alex Sanchez, Alan Wiggins, Darren Lewis, Lance Johnson, Bob Dernier, Mike Felder, Willie McGree, Rudy Law, and Brian Hunter the Speed Demon. Some PECOTAs a bit further down the list are Steve Finley, Kenny Lofton, Polonia, and Marquis Grissom.
Of all those comps, the one I like best to represent Ellsbury's upside in my mind is Lofton.
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Never been a big fan.
He’s a useful player, no doubt, but because of his batting average and stolen base numbers, he’s become one of those guys who has a tremendous amount of hype following him around when really he has so far only demonstrated the ability to be a little above average. (3.4 WAR in 2008, 1.9 in 2009.)
Maybe this is because of fantasy baseball; maybe it’s because he plays for the Red Sox. Maybe it’s because he’s one of those guys people keep describing as “he just plays the game right”. I don’t know. I just know that all of these potential reasons rub me the wrong way.
To be fair, though, none of this is any fault of his own, and I’m sure he has a chance to improve and become a solidly above average outfielder.
by OremLK on Mar 29, 2025 7:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
already
I think hes an above average OF already.. And i also think his best days are ahead of him, not sure how many times he will steal 70 bases, but I would be shocked if he doesnt hit the 50 number annually. I see him batting between .290 and .310 year in and out and boosting his OBP up to the .365 to .375 range. If he can manage a slug % of .425 or so he is an .800 OPS guy that gives you 50+ steals.. How can anyone knock that. Add in the fact that he does seem to play the game right( i havent seen him dog and plays or showboat), and I think you have a very good player.
by LawBe on Mar 29, 2025 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is.
People are fooled by UZR not liking his glove. His glove is pretty good and at least average IMO. So he’s roughly a 3+ win guy every year. He’s pretty valuable and a dynamic impact player. His batting AVG is a skill, not dumb luck.
He’s already solidly above average.
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by alskor on Mar 29, 2025 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said his batting average was dumb luck, did I? I also admitted that he’s been a little above average. As for being “fooled” by his UZR, take a look at the below article:
UZR, with its18.6 rating for Ellsbury in center field in 2009, isn’t exactly out on an island here. John Dewan’s +/metric had him at 9 runs below average. Sean Smith’s Total Zone system had him at 10 runs below average. Tom Tango stated that his With Or Without You system had him between 14 and 18 runs below average. This isn’t a case of UZR delivering a strange result that other systems don’t agree with. Pretty much all of the publicly available defensive metrics show Ellsbury had some issues last year.
In any case, my issue is more with the amount of hype he’s received than with the player himself.
by OremLK on Mar 29, 2025 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Covered this before.
Cameron is off there. UZR is measured in RUNS. Dewan’s is measured in PLAYS.
The fact one is -15 RUNS or whatever and the other is -9 PLAYS means they actually strongly disagree. This is absolutely a case of UZR delivering a strange result and I feel it has to do with the walls at Fenway.
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by alskor on Mar 29, 2025 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given that he's a 26 year old speed demon
where just about every defensive metric has him below-average and the Red Sox moved him to LF to make room for a 35 year old rental, I think we’ve got a fair amount of circumstantial and objective evidence to say he’s at this point a below average CFer. Does that mean he won’t be an above-average CFer, of course not, but at this point, it seems likely he isn’t.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Mar 30, 2025 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which agrees with my subjective opinion from the times I’ve watched him play, by the way. His instincts aren’t great, plain and simple, which mostly manifests in bad routes in the outfield. His speed allows him to cover for it somewhat, but it’s still a significant weakness.
The fan scouting report, if you put much stock in that, says he’s great speed/acceleration/hands, but his instincts and throwing lag far behind.
by OremLK on Mar 30, 2025 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say he's average at worst, actually.
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by alskor on Mar 30, 2025 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s objectively not and the plus/minus data shows a much clearer picture why. In 2009, he was a minus-12 on shallow fly balls, plus-3 on medium fly balls, and a minus-5 on deep fly balls. His speed allows him to move well laterally but he’s never running good routes and it costs him, especially coming in on balls.
by eriatarka on Mar 30, 2025 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I maintain strongly other metrics don't account correctly for the dimensions of Fenway.
The Red Sox have stated point blank their internal metrics have him around average. Do they have a reason for lying? No, no really. They aren’t trying to build his value or anything. He is not a great OFer, but his weaknesses are overstated. His speed makes up for his deficiencies such that he’s not that bad. Again, Dewan and UZR actually disagree on how good/bad he is. They aren’t close. This is not a closed book, it is an open question.
PLUS - UZR over the last three years has him as pretty damn close to average (-1.2 career). He was +6.9 in 2008.
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by alskor on Mar 30, 2025 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They’ve released no numbers and have no reason to ever publicly disparage Ellsbury. And they do have reason to build his value given their surplus of corner outfield talent. It’s a lot easier to sell Ellsbury’s talent as a CF than a LF.
The +6.9 from 2008 isn’t irreconcilable with the 2009 data. He was an even greater plus on medium flyballs, less negative on shallow ones, and a bit of a plus on deep flylballs. So that sounds more like a matter of proportions when it comes to batted balls he’s facing. The underlying theme, which is backed up by visual evidence, is that he does not track flyballs well. Compared to his peers, he’s solidly below-average no matter what metric you look at. He can be rangey when running in the right direction but he simply can’t be counted on to do that enough of the time. And unfortunately for him, the shallow dimensions of left field aren’t going to help him improve in that regard.
I could easily see Ellsbury getting moved for a high enough price if Reddick/Kalish make a lot of noise this year.
by eriatarka on Mar 30, 2025 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Response
The Red Sox have stated point blank their internal metrics have him around average. Do they have a reason for lying? No, no really. They aren’t trying to build his value or anything.
Of course they have a reason for lying. They are trying to build his value. Have they signed him to a long term contract with a no trade clause? If not, you better believe the Red Sox are going to do their best to ensure that other teams believe that Ellsbury plays a good centre. While they are not shopping him, I would bet that they would be willing to listen to offers for him. Wasn’t his name brought up in the Adrian Gonzalez rumors last season? Usually I am not the biggest fan of defensive metrics but in this situation the metrics seem to match the scouting reports and the circumstantial evidence (i.e. signing a 37 year old OF to shift him to LF).
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Mar 31, 2025 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nailed it
Pretty obvious we have a homer here. This guy is living in a dream world where Lars Anderson is a top 1B prospect and players like Kalish and Reddick are actually viable starters in the majors
"This has got to hurt"
by Da.aron on Mar 31, 2025 2:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
The guy who thinks Vin "back end starter" Mazzaro is a front line starting pitcher is mocking me.
That’s pretty funny. Especially since I don’t hold any of the positions you’re saying. Nor am I making any ridiculous or novel claims about Ellsbury’s defense. UZR is off here and people aren’t applying it correctly. The rest of this is just confirmation bias. I guess time will tell who is right.
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by alskor on Mar 31, 2025 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ignore the strikethru in the above quote, it’s caused by an issue with the SBNation software.
by OremLK on Mar 29, 2025 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also not a big fan
Even as a Red Sox fan I’ve always wished we moved this guy when his value was high. His defense in Center field always seemed very overrated to me, and now it looks like the numbers back that up. If he’s not in centerfield, he loses a lot of his value.
I feel like the hype was always more than the production, but the hype comes from media and fans, not necessarily front office people who need to place value on Elsbury for a trade. I don’t think we could have gotten as much for him as the media would like to pretend.
Not a guy I mind having on my team, just a guy I think is wildly overrated
-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!
by Jgaztambide on Mar 29, 2025 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brings something different
Yeah he doesn’t have power or a great arm like most people like out of outfielders but he brings alot of other things to the table. Having him run wild on the basebaths has really changed the way the Sox play. He is going to be a great leadoff hitter and he reminds me alot of Johnny Damon maybe Ellsbury’s power will come in time too.
Also, his UZR does not give his defense credit. Outfield at Fenway is notorious for messing up UZR. He makes plays daily that he has no business getting to.
by drabidea on Mar 29, 2025 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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