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Too much talent - who do I cut (final update)

 

In September, November  and again in February I asked your advice about who to cut to get from 40 to 25 players and then to 15 in late-March in a 12-owner A.L.-only roto league, with standard 23-man roster and a 17-man reserve, $260 and 4 x 4 categories (HR, RBI, BA, SB, ERA, Whip, S, W) .  Thanks for all the helpful input. I've just made my final cuts after making a major trade. Here's the final 15 keepers along with open spots to fill at our auction in 9 days:

 

C Matt Weiters  $11 —  can keep at price two years

C

Kendry Morales $6 —can keep at price two years

3 Alex Rodriguez $40 - obtained in trade; can keep at price for two years

CI

2

SS Elvis Andrus $5 — last year of contract 

MI Marco Scutaro $6 — can keep at price two years 

OF Adam Lind $8 - can keep at price two years

OF Shin Soo-Choo $10 — can keep at price two years

OF Julio Borbon $5 —can keep at price two years

OF 

OF

Zack Greinke $10 -  last year of contract

P Max Scherzer $2 -  can keep at price two years

Phil Hughes $3 — can keep at price two years

David Aardsma $1 - can keep at price two years

P

P

P

P

P

Reserve  Desmond Jennings free — no cost to keep on reserve; $4 in year two

Reserve  Jesus Montero free — no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two

Reserve  Brian Matusz free - no cost to keep on reserve; $1 in year two

Reserve -- 17 spots in all

 

New Cuts:

Mike Aviles $2 — last year of contract

Josh Reddick - - no cost to keep on reserve;

Daric Barton - $2

 

Chris Tillman $1 

Derek Holland $2

Hector Rondon - no cost to keep on reserve;

Brian Duensing - $4 

 

Aroldis Chapman - $2 — Dropped because signed in N.L.

Older Cuts: Trevor CahillKam MickolioMichael SaundersAdam MooreHank Conger, Brett Gardner and Danny Valencia 

 

Traded for ARod:

Justin Smoak Free on reserve if kept this year only, $8 a year if kept this year and next or $13 a year if kept this year and each of the next two years.  

 

Tyler Flowers - no cost to keep on reserve; $2 in year two

Austin Jackson - - no cost to keep on reserve; $1 in year two

 

Thoughts and observations:

(1) I've committed $91 of my roughly $190 budget on hitters, and by my projections to finish first in each counting hitting categories, have 68% of the home runs, 69% of my rbii's and 89% of my stolen bases and would also be above the typical league-leading batting average of .277.

(2) I've committed $16 of my roughly $70 budget on pitching and have one closer, one elite starter and three young starters I like. That leaves me $56 to secure a second closer, a fairly established starter such as Garza or Shields, with the balance on low price guys whose upsides I like.

(3) In past auctions ARod has usually gone for about $50; while his price in standard A.L. only leagues is usually close to $40, because we have so many keepers, the inflation on prices is usually 10% to 20%. Last year he went for $40 because he would miss at least the first month of the season and his health prognosis was uncertain. The only comparable hitter available in the auction is Longoria, who I may still get for my open corner, but I expect him to cost about $45.

(4) I'm sad to trade Smoak. I picked him two years ago in a free agent auction before he was drafted by the Rangers because I like his chance of moving up quickly more than anyone else. But for his injury last summer, he might have been in Texas in August, but it was not to be. My dilemma this year was Smoak was entering an option year (his third year) and if I wanted to keep him beyond this year, I'd have to pay $8 a year for one extra year and $13 a year for two extra years. I didn't want to pay that for a player who won't be up until September if Davis plays well and Vlad stays healthy. I may regret this in June and I may regret this next year, but I already have tremendous value on the roster -- in an expert  non-keeper auction for a 12-team AL-only league, my non-Arod players who I have for $67 went for just over $200, and that's without any inflation effect. What I need now is production that is reliable even if it's at a premium. 

(5) Jackson really bumped up his trade value with a great spring -- several teams had some interest. He's a cheap source for steals and a decent average but I already have that, I already have 3 outfielders, so he was really surplus.

(6) Not fun to trade Flowers either as he will get called up if the White Sox trade AJ and will likely start next year, but I already have Wieters and Montero in reserve.

(7) I was roundly criticized for keeping Aviles but he has come back much earlier than expected, is hitting great (though it's only Spring Training), enough that I could mention him in trade talks and not have someone laugh. I do think he'll be a great reserve pick as his bat could push him past Betancourt or Getz.

(8) I was also criticized for keeping Scutaro. I won't rehash my argument -- we'll find soon enough if he produces more value at $6 than I would have gotten from someone else.

(9) The Brett Anderson trade didn't happen though it was very close - in the end I offered Jackson, Tillman, Rondon, and Daric Barton -- don't laugh; my trade partner has Chris Carter on his reserve so getting Barton insures a cheap $2 first baseman all year. What killed the trade in the end was that his pitching behind Anderson is very shaky.

(10) I was offered a $12 Aaron Hill in his last year of a contract for Smoak and Matusz, I turned it down.

What do you think of the ARod trade? The proposed trades that didn't work out? What do you think of my keepers?  How are you things coming together in your own leagues?


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Arod

Not sure what your inflation rate is but $40 doesn’t seem especially cheap. On the other hand your keeper boat is full and you have to buy some players who will fill up the stat sheet and ARod certainly qualifies on that account although I suppose he still has a bit of health risk.

While I certainly like Smoak better than Jackson, given peculiarities of your league and price structure I agree that Jackson was the greater loss. Bottom line is that the Arod trade seems okay but not a great return for what you gave up.

Only you know what other options you might have had. I’m assuming you couldn’t have gotten Hill for instance for the package you gave up—I certainly would prefer Hill $12 to ARod $40.

by Dalman on Mar 26, 2026 12:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just to give you a sense of prices in my league, last year Longoria went for $44, ARod for $40 even though he would miss at lest the first month, Sizemore for $45, Crawford for $41, Granderson for $37, Rios for $36, Sabbathia for $41. I use my own system to value hitters before each auction, calculating replacement level in each category using actual league data, then track those values against actual auction prices, an most players go for a price that is between 10% and 20% inflated. Most 5 × 5 AL-only auction league that I have seen, either projected or actual prices, show ARod at close to $40 (in mixed leagues its lower), Since our league is 4×4 and doesn’t include runs, middle-of-the-order types tend to have a bit more value.

Your comment about filling up the stat sheet is exactly my approach. I am more at risk of running out of top talent than of falling short of money. At this stage I’m not looking for bargains. I’m looking for proven talent at a price within the normal inflation range for our league and ARod may be cheaper on the count that anyone I can get in the auction. Plus a trade eliminates part of the uncertainty about who I get.

The guy who wanted Hill also asked for Greinke and wasn’t interested in prospects. Given my depth of cheap hitters, Greinke at $10 was more valuable to me than Hill at $12. And for similar reasons I wasn’t going to give up Matusz, especially since I will count on him next year when Greinke is gone.

by Rotofan on Mar 26, 2026 8:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the A-Rod trade

was still a little lopsided, even at his high $ cost. I don’t like Smoak, Flowers or Jackson as much as some do…though all three are fine prospects. This is the rank order of the prospects you traded away are: Smoak, Jackson, Flowers.

A-Rod in three years will probably still give you at least .285/ 25/100/ 15.

Wow Alexis Rios for $36?!

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Mar 26, 2026 6:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It just got a bit more lopsided

The other owner realized Smoak was entering his option year and asked if he could drop Smoak and replace him with another player I had cut, Josh Reddick, which I agreed to. (The other owner had proposed the trade in the first place so I’m not sure why he didn’t look more closely at Smoak’s contract). So that means I have a chance of picking up Smoak at the auction and bringing him back in the fold - - I have the 3rd pick in our reserve draft after the auction.

If you think Rios was bad, someone paid $38 last year for Wang!!! Mike Jacobs went for $31!

It’s not all that bad - those bids got out-of-hand by a few less knowledgeable owners. Longoria is the best comp to ARod and he went for $44 after his rookie year when there were still questions if he might regress a little as a sophomore.

by Rotofan on Mar 27, 2025 12:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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