Jason Heyward Community Projection Results

With Jason Heyward making the Atlanta Opening Day roster, today is the perfect time to summarize the Community Projection. We had 23 entries.

The results:

140 games, 490 at-bats, 77 runs, 137 hits, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 19 homers, 58 walks, 89 strikeouts, 12 steals, 4 caught stealing, slash line .280/.361/.473, .834 OPS

Comparison:

Community Projection: 490 at-bats, .280/.361/.473, .834 OPS
Bill James: 542 at-bats, .303/.371/.465, .836 OPS
CHONE:  310 at-bats, .258/.324/.416, .740 OPS
ZIPS: 448 at-bats, .275/.341/.429, .770 OPS
PECOTA:  423 plate appearances, .272/.343/.450, .793 OPS

As much as I love Heyward, I think the Minor League Ball Community Projection is rather too optimistic. It's not impossible, but it is an upper outlier. My own projection was .267/.338/.434, .772 OPS, close to the ZIPS numbers. That would still be excellent performance from a 20-year-old rookie with 50 games above A-ball.

It is easy to get all fanboy about an amazing talent like Heyward, but the example of Matt Wieters last year should remind us to keep short-term expectations at a reasonable level.

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