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Tampa Bay Rays Top 20 Prospects for 2009

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Tampa Bay Rays Top 20 Prospects for 2009

 

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

 

1) David Price, LHP, Grade A: Best pitching prospect in baseball, has everything you want.
2) Wade Davis, RHP, Grade B+: Should be ready sometime in 2009. Could be a Gil Meche type.

3) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Grade B+: Excellent combination of command with solid stuff.

4) Tim Beckham, SS, Grade B+: Not great performance, but very young. I’m cutting him slack.

5) Desmond Jennings, OF, Grade B: I like him, power in doubt, hopefully shoulder will be OK.

6) Jeff Niemann, RHP, Grade B-: Nothing left to prove in minors. Should be solid but not great.
7) Nick Barnese, RHP, Grade B-: Following the Davis/Hellickson path. Breakout possible in ’09.

8) Jake Jefferies, C, Grade B-: I’m very impressed with his contact hitting skills. Power??

9) Matt Moore, LHP, Grade B-: Impressive lefty with plus stuff, another breakout candidate.

10) Reid Brignac, SS, Grade C+: Bat slipped while glove improved. Still young, could rebound.

11) John Jaso, C, Grade C+: Gets on base, flashes power, defense acceptable, needs a chance.

12) Jacob McGee, LHP, Grade C+: Would be B+ if not for Tommy John surgery.

13) Eduardo Morlan, RHP, Grade C+: I still like him, though shoulder is a concern.

14) Fernando Perez, OF, Grade C+: Very fast, a bit of pop, good glove, high K-rate a worry.

15) Mitch Talbot, RHP, Grade C+: Average stuff, throws strikes, could be an effective swingman.

16) Heath Rollins, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a lot like Talbot. Throws strikes, good stat record.

17) Reid Fronk, OF, Grade C+: Need to see at higher levels. Like the power, walk rate in Sally.

18) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Grade C+: Just getting started, fits into Rays pitching program well.

19) Emeel Salem, OF, Grade C+: Very fast, polished hitter, should move up fast if healthy.

20) Albert Suarez, RHP, Grade C+: Heavy sinker, must refine breaking stuff. 2010 breakthrough?

 

Others include Alex Cobb, Jason Corder, Joseph Cruz, Neal Frontz, Justin Garcia, Glenn Gibson, Matt Gorgen, Austin Hinkle, James Houser, Rhyne Hughs, Keyong Kang, Chris Mason, Ty Morrison, Chris Nowak, Ryan Reid, Ryan Royster, Justin Ruggiano, and Mike Sheridan.

 

If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.

 

SYSTEM IN BRIEF:

   The farm system has thinned out a bit but remains impressive overall, and particularly rich in pitching. I like the way the Rays handle high school pitchers, usually starting them off in rookie ball, then moving them to the New York-Penn League their second year, then into full-season ball in their third season. They could use some additional hitting depth, which is the main weakness I see right now.

 

Next up is the Arizona Diamondbacks


Full reports on all these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. The book ships January 31st, but we love pre-orders!! Order early and order often! 


0 recs  |  Comment 31 comments

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Interesting

Jeffries seems kind of high to me based on what I’ve seen of him. He seems to have a good eye, but his bat speed is average and I’ve heard doubts about whether he’ll stick at catcher (he DHed most of the year in Hudson Valley). Alex Cobb seems low to me as well. His K rate wasn’t great, but he induced a lot of ground balls and is athletic. I also like KD Kang better than Emeel Salem. Salem was VERY old for his league, and it doesn’t help that he’s a speedster who injured his knee last year, and that he has little to no power. He seems kind of like a broke man’s Ben Revere to me.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2025 12:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Salem = Elbow

Not knee. On Cobb, take a look here, I know he’s young, he’s not Top 20 in this organization. And we agree on Kang, could be an ’09 breakout.

http://www.raysprospects.com/

by DAM on Nov 10, 2025 6:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, nice one

I haven’t been to that site much, but I think you’ve already convinced me on Cobb, or pretty close to it. I still like him as a Shawn Camp type eventually though.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2025 7:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and one other guy who might be interesting for the book

Elias Otero

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2025 12:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

is there a reason...

i’m starting to see elias otero’s name everywhere? or is the same person mentioning him over and over? i’d like to know a little bit more about him.

by psugator on Nov 10, 2025 1:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Otero

Otero was old for the Appy League, so I’m inclined to take his performance with a grain of salt until we see how he does in a more age-appropriate league.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 10, 2025 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Put up an OPS near 1.000 as a 2B in the Appy League

Yes, he was 20-years old, so he was old, but not any older than the college players who were drafted that year. Main reason for skepticism is that he had already been released by one team, but the numbers were eyepopping considering his position (and the only reason he was at 2B and not SS was because Tim Beckham was at short).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2025 2:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Otero every signed with Pittsburgh

I have no idea what the rules regarding drafting players from the PR Baseball Academy are, but I’m pretty sure Otero never signed when he drafted back in 2005.

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Nov 10, 2025 2:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

He went to JC and signed as an undrafted free agent.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2025 2:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Since when

is .932 “near 1.000”?

Otero wasn’t a “young 20”, either; he turns 21 in December.

Furthermore, the numbers were mostly BA-driven. Otero had to post an in-play BA near .400 to get to that level. He’s not going to sustain BABIP at that level, especially given his GB rate.

Like I said, take his performance with a grain of salt until he gets to a league that’s more age-appropriate. If he makes it past Bowling Green next year, that’s the time to get on the bandwagon.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 10, 2025 4:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Otero

I agree with Mike’s analysis, however Otero DID do enough to merit inclusion in the book. I will put him in.

by John Sickels on Nov 10, 2025 5:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry

He didn’t have a hit his last two games of the season, so his OPS dropped from the 1.000 it hovered at all season to .932.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2025 5:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Some random musings

1. I wonder where Kyle Lobstein will start off. The Rays new regime hadn’t drafted a HS pitcher that high before(Houser was the last in the organization to be taken in the 1st or 2nd round, and that was in 2003). They’ve started out all their HS guys at Princeton, but I think Lobstein can handle the NYPL, and should be put there(he actually will turn 20 toward the end of the 2009 season).

2. Jake McGee should, by all accounts, be in the bullpen whenever he returns.

3. I like K.D. Kang’s bat a lot more than Salem, much like Brickhaus. I’d probably even have Morrison over him(as John mentions, a lot of these guys are interchangeable). Morrison’s going to be a project, but he’s got good tools and just needs his body to catch up.

4. High-level sleeper: Matt Walker. He’s been pretty bad in the FSL the last two years, but I think he gets bumped up to AA and succeeds, either in the rotation or in the bullpen.

5. Two lower-level guys I’ll have my eye on: Mark Thomas and Jason McEachern. Thomas(a catcher) was pretty terrible in the NY-P last year and will likely repeat it, but he’s athletic and I think is bat is a lot better than he showed last year). McEachern was the 13th-rounder in 2008, he kind of burst on the scene his senior year of HS. He’ll be 18 the entire season, so he’ll be back in rookie ball, but I think he’s got good projection if his frame fills out.

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Nov 10, 2025 1:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

McGee

He’s about 95% certain to be in the pen.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 10, 2025 1:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

John

Do you know anything about RHP Jesse Darcy?

ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com

by sully10x on Nov 10, 2025 1:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

darcy

he was borderline. Good command but marginal stuff was the report I had. Also old for league IIRC.

by John Sickels on Nov 10, 2025 5:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Full A to C+ for McGee?

Is that the largest drop ever in one season?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2025 2:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no

No. Serious injury like TJ is automatic strong grade reduction. TJ is NOT routine no matter what anyone says.

by John Sickels on Nov 10, 2025 2:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brignac

Wow has Brignac dropped that far?

by DeJay on Nov 10, 2025 2:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Brignac took a big step backward last year. He got off to a slow start and started swinging at everything, and then he got hurt.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 10, 2025 4:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Solid B

I think C+ is too harsh. His bat needs refinement but is still plus potential and his defense is now above average.

by bryeic on Nov 10, 2025 8:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yep

that’s really a silly rating, reacts too much to last year. with an advanced prospect like Brignac, have to take his whole career into account.

agree that he’s a a solid B. not a great prospect, but a good, solid, advanced prospect. far, far better that the 3 guys ahead of him.

by scooter on Nov 11, 2025 8:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Taking his whole career into account

he still hasnt had a “good” year with the bat. He’s always just teased, with the seeming promise of more coming…

Id be okay with B-, but Brignac has never lived up to the hype and its time people admitted it. The most impressive thing he’s done is improve with the glove. Take away his Cal league performance (or just adjust it for context) and we’re really not looking at a guy who has hit that much.

Now, if he finally has that breakout year then knock him way back up… but we’ve been waiting too long for that breakout year. It was time to drop him down to a B-, at the least, and I wouldnt quibble too much with a C+.

Keith Law: Idiot.

by alskor on Nov 11, 2025 1:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We also

cant ignore that he seems to be regressing as he goes up levels. Declining contact and walk rates… You may be sure that this isnt him having trouble with tougher competition… but we cant exclude that explanation as a possibility. That’s another mark against him.

Keith Law: Idiot.

by alskor on Nov 11, 2025 1:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

On the contrary,

Brignac improved both his K rate and BB rate in moving from Visalia to Montgomery, and in especially in the case of his walks it was a rather significant improvement. He started the year at Montgomery in a hitting slump and so ended with a low BA and thus lower OBP and Slugging % numbers overall, but both were a function of BA, not fewer walks. And in a pitcher’s league and a pitcher’s ballpark, he continued to hit for good power at AA as a 21 year old.

To be precise, at Visalia he walked once every 12.74 plate appearances. At Montgomery he walked every 10.58 PAs. As for Ks, it was one every 5 ABs at Visalia and every 5.6 ABs at Montgomery.

He did decline precipitously, both in BB and K rates, in 2008 at Durham. There may have been injury problems. It is also possible that he was not ready for the competition there. But the regression has not been a steady one as he has moved up.

by bobr on Nov 11, 2025 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

gorgen

and his brother both got really, really good after clayton valley hs. glad to see both of them doing well.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Nov 11, 2025 2:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

jason tweedy

there’s a lot of good players in the minors, keep an eye on tweedy

by bbdude on Nov 12, 2025 11:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

JEFF NIEMANN

Is there a place for him in the rotation in the next two years or do they put him in the pen or do they deal him + something else for something they need (a RF)? Looking for more info on him if anyone has the lowdown.

by The Colonel on Nov 14, 2025 1:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If he's not traded, he'll be in the pen

He has the stuff to be a shutdown reliever, and he can still dial it up to 97 when he uses his max effort delivery, so I’m not sure it’s a bad thing if he becomes a reliever. The biggest problem is that it supposedly takes him forever to warm up (15 - 20 minutes), which means he won’t be able to come in during mid-inning situations much unless he can learn to warm up quicker.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 17, 2025 9:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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