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Crystal Ball: Luke Weaver, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

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One possible future for the St. Louis Cardinals right-hander.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Here's a Crystal Ball, by reader request, for St. Louis Cardinals pitching prospect Luke Weaver..

The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will definitely turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.

I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground. You can pick out the imagined injuries, trades, and free agent signings.

This particular CB is far from a maximal outcome; please don't take it as an indicator that I don't like Weaver. I like Weaver a lot and expect him to be considerably better than this, but it is useful to game out different scenarios in our minds. In this example, concerns about Weaver's long-term durability that some scouts have prove to be accurate in the sense that he goes through a three-year rough patch before rebounding somewhat in his early 30s.

Thinking about the non-maximal outcomes helps keeps grounded as analysts.

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Luke Weaver
Year Team G GS IP H R ER W L ERA K BB SV Age K/9 BB/9 H/9
2016 Cardinals 9 8 36.3333 46 29 23 1 4 5.7 45 12 0 22 11.1 2.97 11.39
2017 Cardinals 16 4 56 53 25 24 3 3 3.86 52 19 2 23 8.36 3.05 8.518
2018 Cardinals 32 32 198 184 85 83 11 11 3.77 178 67 0 24 8.09 3.05 8.364
2019 Cardinals 16 16 100 112 58 56 5 6 5.04 98 54 0 25 8.82 4.86 10.08
Angels 14 14 86 72 40 37 5 5 3.87 88 31 0 9.21 3.24 10.59
2020 Angels 33 33 224 219 87 84 15 11 3.38 178 75 0 26 7.15 3.01 8.799
2021 Angels 27 27 180 157 58 55 14 4 2.75 183 57 0 27 9.15 2.85 7.85
2022 Angels 4 0 7 4 5 5 0 0 6.43 3 4 0 28 3.86 5.14 5.143
2023 Angels 41 2 59 76 33 33 2 4 5.03 43 24 4 29 6.56 3.66 11.59
2024 Marlins 5 5 26 25 15 15 2 1 5.19 25 6 0 30 8.65 2.08 8.654
2025 Marlins 26 14 104 99 41 38 7 4 3.29 84 23 2 31 7.27 1.99 8.567
2026 Marlins 32 32 189 179 87 83 12 13 3.95 108 52 0 32 5.14 2.48 8.524
2027 Giants 21 21 112 119 56 50 7 9 4.02 74 33 0 33 5.95 2.65 9.563
2028 Rays 4 0 5 7 6 4 0 0 7.2 2 4 0 34 3.6 7.2 12.6
Red Sox 1 1 6 11 5 5 0 0 7.5 2 3 0 3 4.5 16.5
Giants 10 0 18 12 5 5 2 1 2.5 7 6 0 3.5 3 6
2029 Marlins 18 0 22 24 20 17 0 1 6.95 12 7 1 35 4.91 2.86 9.818
309 209 1428.33 1399 655 617 86 77 3.89 1182 477 9 399 7.45 3.01 8.815