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Here's a Crystal Ball, by reader request, for St. Louis Cardinals pitching prospect Luke Weaver..
The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will definitely turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.
I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground. You can pick out the imagined injuries, trades, and free agent signings.
This particular CB is far from a maximal outcome; please don't take it as an indicator that I don't like Weaver. I like Weaver a lot and expect him to be considerably better than this, but it is useful to game out different scenarios in our minds. In this example, concerns about Weaver's long-term durability that some scouts have prove to be accurate in the sense that he goes through a three-year rough patch before rebounding somewhat in his early 30s.
Thinking about the non-maximal outcomes helps keeps grounded as analysts.
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Luke Weaver | |||||||||||||||||
Year | Team | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | W | L | ERA | K | BB | SV | Age | K/9 | BB/9 | H/9 |
2016 | Cardinals | 9 | 8 | 36.3333 | 46 | 29 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 5.7 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 22 | 11.1 | 2.97 | 11.39 |
2017 | Cardinals | 16 | 4 | 56 | 53 | 25 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 3.86 | 52 | 19 | 2 | 23 | 8.36 | 3.05 | 8.518 |
2018 | Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 198 | 184 | 85 | 83 | 11 | 11 | 3.77 | 178 | 67 | 0 | 24 | 8.09 | 3.05 | 8.364 |
2019 | Cardinals | 16 | 16 | 100 | 112 | 58 | 56 | 5 | 6 | 5.04 | 98 | 54 | 0 | 25 | 8.82 | 4.86 | 10.08 |
Angels | 14 | 14 | 86 | 72 | 40 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 3.87 | 88 | 31 | 0 | 9.21 | 3.24 | 10.59 | ||
2020 | Angels | 33 | 33 | 224 | 219 | 87 | 84 | 15 | 11 | 3.38 | 178 | 75 | 0 | 26 | 7.15 | 3.01 | 8.799 |
2021 | Angels | 27 | 27 | 180 | 157 | 58 | 55 | 14 | 4 | 2.75 | 183 | 57 | 0 | 27 | 9.15 | 2.85 | 7.85 |
2022 | Angels | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6.43 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 3.86 | 5.14 | 5.143 |
2023 | Angels | 41 | 2 | 59 | 76 | 33 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 5.03 | 43 | 24 | 4 | 29 | 6.56 | 3.66 | 11.59 |
2024 | Marlins | 5 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 5.19 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 30 | 8.65 | 2.08 | 8.654 |
2025 | Marlins | 26 | 14 | 104 | 99 | 41 | 38 | 7 | 4 | 3.29 | 84 | 23 | 2 | 31 | 7.27 | 1.99 | 8.567 |
2026 | Marlins | 32 | 32 | 189 | 179 | 87 | 83 | 12 | 13 | 3.95 | 108 | 52 | 0 | 32 | 5.14 | 2.48 | 8.524 |
2027 | Giants | 21 | 21 | 112 | 119 | 56 | 50 | 7 | 9 | 4.02 | 74 | 33 | 0 | 33 | 5.95 | 2.65 | 9.563 |
2028 | Rays | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 34 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 12.6 |
Red Sox | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4.5 | 16.5 | ||
Giants | 10 | 0 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3.5 | 3 | 6 | ||
2029 | Marlins | 18 | 0 | 22 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 6.95 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 35 | 4.91 | 2.86 | 9.818 |
309 | 209 | 1428.33 | 1399 | 655 | 617 | 86 | 77 | 3.89 | 1182 | 477 | 9 | 399 | 7.45 | 3.01 | 8.815 |
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