We had seven entries for the Minor League Ball Community Projection for Michael Conforto of the New York Mets. The results:
124 games, 385 at-bats, 51 runs, 101 hits, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 15 homers, 38 walks, 103 strikeouts, 2 steals, 2 caught, 4 HBP, slash line .263/.335/.452.
The results from the objective projection systems:
Steamer: 79 games, 286 at-bats, 36 runs, 74 hits, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 12 homers, 29 walks, 66 strikeouts, 2 steals, 2 caught, 3 HBP, slash line .259/.330/.450
ZIPS: 148 games, 498 at-bats, 77 runs, 125 hits, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 24 homers, 50 walks, 124 strikeouts, 2 steals, 3 caught, 6 HBP, slash line .251/.324/.466
PECOTA: 296 at-bats, 40 runs, 75 hits, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 14 homers, 31 walks, 74 strikeouts, 2 steals, 1 caught, slash line .256/.332/.459
In this case, the opinion of the community is very much in line with the projection systems. The playing time component varies wildly given the talent stack in the Mets outfield, but the production expected of Conforto is consistent from method to method.
Will reality line up as nicely? We’ll find out.
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