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My 2013 top 15

This is my projection of what my 2013 top 20 prospects will look like. Note: I would not necessarily rate these prospects in this order right now, but this is how I think I'll rank them next year.

1. Anthony Rendon

Yes I like him that much, he can absolutely rake, I think he won't have any injuries next year, and he might be minor league player of the year. I absolutely love Rendon. I think he'll hit somewhere around .350 with like 20 HRs. Injuries are the only worry. And the Nats have a chance at top prospect for 4 years in a row, as I have had them with the top prospect the last 3. College stats don't mean much, but I would at least think college is a higher level than short season ball and maybe low a. And one thing I always look for in prospects is plate discipline, Rendon had a ridiculous 26.4% BB% in the 2010-2011 season for Rice and hit .327/.520/.523 with a 10.9% K%. He hit even better in 2009-2010 when he wasn't injured, while his plate discipline wasn't as good, he hit .397/.530/.801 with 26 homers.

2. Shelby Miller

Is at AAA knocking on the door at the end of the season and gets in the majors but doesn't get rid of rookie status. Has amazing stuff and stats.

3. Manny Machado

More power than Profar, and right now is a very good defensive shortstop. Could outgrow SS, but right now has a monster ceiling.

4. Wil Myers

I love his bat like Rendon's and I think he could absolutely rake like Rendon too, I heard he had a nasty infection that was keeping him back a little last year. Has the 1st or 2nd best bat on this list behind Rendon.

5. Jurickson Profar

Doesn't have a bad year, has a very good year, and still has great tools, but Rendon has a monster season and I like Machado better for this year anyway, and I really like Myers too.

6. Taijuan Walker

The #2 pitcher on this list, Walker has a very high ceiling and had a ton of Ks last year. I think he'll have a great season.

7. Dylan Bundy

Pretty polished high schooler with super high potential.

8. Gerrit Cole

Cole has amazing stuff, and he could silence all the doubters about his command.

9. Francisco Lindor

I love Lindor as he's a 4, maybe 5 tool shortstop if the power comes around and he was extremely young as a high schooler which Rany Jazayerli showed can make a big difference.

10. Nolan Arenado

Rockies prospect has very low K rates and big power. That's a very good thing. I would like to see the BB rate higher as in my opinion, that's the most important thing for a prospect, and that's why I have Rendon #1, but his other stuff is too good to pass up.

11. Archie Bradley

Has absolutely incredible stuff but is a high school pitcher and I'm not sure how he'll do.

12. Travis D'Arnaud

Blue jays catcher looks very good now and I think he'll hit very well in 2012.

13. Mike Zunino

He was #1 on my draft board, I like Zunino, he's a safe catcher with a chance for much more, and he's absolutely destroyed the college level.

14. Jameson Taillon

Taillon has immense upside, but he's one of the people who I think could falter in 2012. I'm not sure he will so I put him at 13, but he could drop lower if he has a bad year.

15. Xander Bogaerts

Here comes the homer pick, but Bogaerts has incredible upside with the bat and could have a potentially huge season in 2012. Bogaerts put up the 3rd highest ISO ever in the SAL league at 18 years old. The two guys with a higher ISO were named Mike Stanton and Adrian Beltre, I think you've heard of them. And guess what, Bogaerts is currently a shortstop. While he might not stick at SS, he is very athletic, and if he doesn't the reason will be because he outgrew the position not because he was an awful shortstop. Mike Newman at fangraphs thinks he might be able to stick at shortstop, and has a better chance than the #3 prospect on this list. I don't agree that he has a better chance to stick at SS than Manny Machado, but he could. even if he doesn't he'll be a good third baseman.

I probably forgot someone tell me who it is.

HM: Miguel Sano,Byron Buxton, Carlos Martinez

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Comments

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looking way ahead

hard to argue with a list this far ahead of time, the only things I see wrong is I don’t think D’Arnaud or Shelby Miller will be rookie eligible come 2013

by GoldenSpikes24 on Feb 21, 2026 9:57 PM EST reply actions  

Barring injury

I’d be surprised to see the Jays call-up TDA early enough to get enough PA/service time to be disqualified, since they have Arencibia, and I doubt JPA is traded in-season (mind you, never put anything past AA). Although, you never know, if JPA struggles maybe they have them split time. We’ll see, but I’d put the odds against it on balance.

by MjwW on Feb 22, 2026 1:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm.... I'll take a quick stab.

1. Wil Myers
2. Anthony Rendon
3. Mike Zunnino
4. Shelby Miller
5. Hak-Ju Lee
6. Dylan Bundy
7. Gary Sanchez
8. Chrstian Yelich
9. Nolan Arenado
10. Manny Machado
11. Jurickson Profar
12. Lucas Giolito
13. Enny Romero
14. Francisco Lindor
15. Joe Ross

by mr. maniac on Feb 21, 2026 10:12 PM EST reply actions  

Machado and Profar that low

BELOW Lee is just, well, startling.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 22, 2026 1:50 AM EST up reply actions  

It really isn't that difficult.

Machado will hit but have more questions about his defense. And while Profar should do well, I expect him to not perform nearly as well next year, causing people to drop him much further than that.

by mr. maniac on Feb 22, 2026 8:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I forgot Grandal.

I’d have him right behind Machado.

by mr. maniac on Feb 22, 2026 8:29 AM EST up reply actions  

if I had to pick a Ray to jump into that top 15 range for 2013

I would probably go with Mahtook instead of Enny. While Enny has some upside and could have a great season. He has a track record and isn’t really in most peoples top 100 so it would take an absolutely phenomenal year for him to jump all the way to top 15. Mahtook on the other hand has no professional experience and is a 1st round college guy who could just explode on the scene and make a big impact, especially if the Rays start him in PC. Wow and I just noticed you had Lee at 5, would love that but I’m not sold on Lee’s upside offensively. Hopefully he can be successfully offensively in the Jose Reyes mold but I don’t know.

by Dbullsfan on Feb 22, 2026 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

My list varies quite a bit from the standard.

I have Lee top 20 right now with Romero in the 80-100 range right with Guerrieri.

by mr. maniac on Feb 22, 2026 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Cole

I’m guessing that if Cole quiets the concerns about his command issues, he’ll be quite a bit higher than #8.

I’m quite sure I’ve heard that he has three 70 or better grade pitches. If he combines that with good command, with his ability to sustain velocity deep into games, he is going to dominate.

On the other hand, if he doesn’t quite the concerns, then he’ll be lower than 8th.

by Woo! on Feb 21, 2026 10:41 PM EST reply actions  

I'll give it a shot

1. Jurickson Profar
2. Wil Myers
3. Manny Machado
4. Dylan Bundy
5. Gerrit Cole
6. Anthony Rendon (promising start then goes down with injury
7. Nolan Arenado
8. Xander Bogaerts
9. Archie Bradley
10. Luc Giolito (I think he dazzles this spring
11. Taijuan Walker
12. Tyler Skaggs
13. Jameson Taillon
14. AJ Cole
15. Miguel Sano

Pitcher heavy

by kyuss94 on Feb 22, 2026 10:54 AM EST reply actions  

Thinking about it

I’d flip flop Cole and Bundy and Bradley and Walker for now.

by kyuss94 on Feb 22, 2026 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

How many MLB players

in the history of the game, have hit .350 with twenty homers? It’s okay that you love Rendon, but be realistic!

Writer for MLBReports

by AckAttack on Feb 22, 2026 9:11 PM EST reply actions  

Concur

I won’t project any player to hit .350 unless it’s someone with just uncanny ability to hit the ball with consistent hard contact. If I had to project one player in the minors right now to hit .350 it would probably be Wil Myers, but I wouldn’t even go that far with him and I think his hit tool is superior to Rendon’s.

by kyuss94 on Feb 22, 2026 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

You'd choose a guy who not only strikes out quite a bit, but hasn't even hit .300 in his MiLB career?

Myers is a very good prospect, but his hit tool isn’t nearly as good as you’re making it out to be.

by nixa37 on Feb 22, 2026 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm giving Myers an injury mulligan on 2011

And the move from behind the plate was a bit of a speed bump for his development with the bat. The combination of the way he commands the strike zone, his smooth swing and his patience will make him an elite hitter for average I think, though he hasn’t shown it yet. I think 2012 is Myers’ year.

by kyuss94 on Feb 22, 2026 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Well what about when he only hit .289 in the MWL then?

Honestly, I don’t think you understand how hard it is to hit .350 when you’re striking out at a fairly high rate like Myers does. Myers has struck out in 22.5% of the ABs he’s had in the minors. Let’s just give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that carries over to the majors. Further, let’s give him 35 HR (and 0 SF) in 600 AB as a relatively aggressive assumption. With his K rate, that’s 135 strikeouts over 600 ABs. To hit .350 over 600 ABs, he’ll need 210 hits. So, in order to hit .350 with our assumptions, Myers would need a BABIP of .407 [(210 - 35) / (600 - 135 - 35)], which is better than any single season BABIP by a qualifying player in at least a decade (that’s how far I went back before I quit looking).

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

First of all, I was trying to say that the stats don't back up the talent just yet

But my main point before was that while I like Myers’ hit tool better than any other prospect in the minors, I still don’t see him hitting .350 without a whole lot of luck. Myers hasn’t broken out yet but the scouting reports remain glowing and I think it’s just a matter of time. We’ll see but I’m very excited about his chances.

by kyuss94 on Feb 23, 2026 12:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Don't get me wrong, he's a great prospect

I just think its mostly because of his projected ability to draw a lot of walks and hit for good power. I think his can post a good average for guys who can do those two things, but I don’t think it will be elite compared to the league as a whole.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 12:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I said he could do that in the minors

next year. Not in the majors ever.

by Bososx13 on Feb 23, 2026 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

That's not really how it reads

If you had that sentence right after the one about him being minor league player of the year it would be a lot more clear.

Honestly, I’m not sure why you would expect that much power from him next year considering how little HR power he showed last year with the BBCOR bat. You’re basically projecting him to hit HR at a significantly higher rate than he did with a metal bat in college last year.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 9:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it's obvious

that Bososx13 thinks Rendon’s injury effected his power last year…

by hybrid on Feb 24, 2026 2:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Seriously?

Yes he got hurt the same year just so he could have an excuse… You two think differently on a player, shocking.

by hybrid on Feb 24, 2026 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

What?

I was just commenting on choosing to disregard the lack of power as soon as he had to start using bats that don’t create power. Sure, the injury probably played some role, but you can’t act like the lack of power isn’t at least a yellow flag.

by nixa37 on Feb 24, 2026 7:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I just don't understand your love for Rendon

Leaving aside the injuries, he struggled to hit for any power once he had to use a BBCOR bat (this really can’t be underestimated, one of the reasons scouts love the new bat is because they can’t be tricked by aluminum bat power) which is a pretty big red flag for a college guy you’re ranking #1 without a lick of pro data. And please don’t fall in love with BB:K numbers from college players. Its just way too easy to pad those numbers against pitchers who will never even sniff pro baseball. Remember, Gordon Beckham posted a 54:30 (1.8 to 1) ratio in college, yet in the majors is 113:268 (0.4 to 1).

by nixa37 on Feb 22, 2026 9:50 PM EST reply actions  

This is fun. I'll try

1. Miguel Sano- I see a monster year and he has a shot of getting to AA
2. Jurickson Profar- Maintains everything he showed last year…. power, speed, defense, walks
3. Taijuan Walker- Develops a plus change up and refines curveball
4. Anthony Rendon- I think he gets moved to second base and shows last year power numbers were a fluke
5. Nolan Arenado- Walk rates continues to improve, has monster year in AA
6. Mike Zunino- Taken 1st overall by the Astros
7. Francisco Lindor- Proves to be a steal by the Indians hitting for surprising power and excellent defense
8. Rymer Liriano- Draws walks, hits for power, steals bases.. bat starts to Hunter Pence
9. Wil Myers- Destroys AAA and gets a September call-up
10. Dylan Bundy- Shows advanced control and shows he can be the Orioles ace of the future
11. Gerrit Cole- Has a little bit of a disappointing year in terms of control
14. Byron Buxton- Taken 3rd overall by Mariners
15. Manny Machado Has disappointing year with defense, power, and strikeouts.

by MilesC on Feb 24, 2026 3:32 PM EST reply actions  


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