2011 MLB Draft Fantasy Impact
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 14, 2026 3:01 PM EST
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PrintSince Fantasy leagues are firing up for those of you who have long term keeper leagues or deep dynasty's, here are some players to get familiar with.
Quick Impact
College
Hitter: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
Rendon has the most potential to make a quick impact in the majors. He really shouldn't need a lot of seasoning in the minors. It is just a matter of time how he makes it to the majors. Will he be the 3B after Ryan Zimmerman leaves the District or will he move to 2B to be one of the best hitting 2B in the majors. It is dependent on how the Nationals use him, but the bat is very near ready. Kolten Wong could sneak past him due to the age of the team and the lack of a solid talent at 2B.
Pitcher: Trevor Bauer, RHP, Diamondbacks
Bauer chewed up minor league hitters this season after dominating college hitters. No one has made consistent contact off of Bauer and his unique delivery and great mix of stuff. I have no doubt he can make an impact immediately in Arizona and post 10+ K/9 whether it is in the rotation or out of the pen. Sonny Gray and Danny Hultzen shouldn't be too far behind him.
High School
Hitter: Javier Baez, 3B, Cubs
This is a tough category because close to the majors for a high school player is 3 years, basically. That is where I see Baez. He can hit a ton and he is likely to hit enough to earn promotions as quickly as anyone. He looks like the heir apparent to fill the hole at 3B. The question is how quickly can Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters move out of the way, or how quickly can Baez' bat move them out of the way?
Pitcher: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles
Bundy on the other hand is closer than 3 years from the majors. He may be up as early as September but more likely early 2013. He is polished and mature physically. He just needs to adapt his stuff to the pro level and he'll be ready. He will also be pushed since he signed a major league contract.
High Risk/High Reward
College
Hitter: George Springer, OF, Astros
George Springer has all the tools you would want out of a top draft choice. The difference is that he lacks the refinement a player three years out of high school would have. He is a raw hitter with potential to be a power hitting CF with some speed and good defense at an up the middle position. C.J. Cron also fits well here. Cron is high risk because he HAS to play 1B. He has nowhere else to go. He is high reward because he has the potential to be a 30-40 HR type of 1B from the right side and there aren't a lot of those guys out there.
Pitcher: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates
Cole could be an ace with an upper 90's fastball and two 70+ graded secondary pitches. The risk is that he will never command them well enough to reach his potential and we will see him as a player that always is a disappointment. I think the Pirates have been linked to a guy kind of like that in the last few days.
High School
Hitter: Josh Bell, OF, Pirates
Bell could be the best hitter of this draft out of high school. He is a long way from a finished product and has a large uppercut that doesn't keep his bat in the zone for a long time. This creates huge power and leverage but also creates potential contact issues. Add the fact he is a switch hitter and this could cause problems.
Pitcher: Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Rays
Guerrieri has had some problems in the past. While I'm not sure what this "incident" was but it didn't get him extra points. While his arm is one of the best in the class, he will have to overcome the past and work his butt off to break through the crowded pile of arms in Tampa Bay. That being said, they know how to develop pitchers and he has a ton of talent.
High Level Sleepers:
Trevor Story, SS, Rockies
Story has all the tools to be a 5 tool shortstop or a well above average 3B if he outgrows the position.
Matt Dean, 3B, Blue Jays
A middle of the order bat with all the skills needed to be an above average 3B if it all clicks.
Travis Harrison, 3B/OF/1B, Twins
A personal favorite who could be the best power hitter in this draft if he figures it out.
Really Deep Sleepers(after 10th round):
Eric Arce, 1B, TOR
Arce can hit a ton. He is one to watch to see what he can do this season after a big pro debut.
Christian Montgomery, RHP, NYM
Montgomery has a 92-95 MPH fastball with a really good breaking ball and a nice changeup. His biggest flaw is his weight but it doesn't bother me as long it doesn't hurt his endurance.
Amir Garrett, LHP, CIN
Think David Price if he hits his ceiling. Great athlete just starting to focus on baseball after being a basketball star, may still be, not sure of his status at St. John's.
Roderick Shoulders, 1B, CHC
Huge power potential.
Burch Smith, P, SD
Smith can throw in the low to mid 90's and has a decent curveball. He doesn't have a lot of deception to his delivery. He is more hittable than he should be with the stuff he has.
Wallace Gonzalez, OF, HOU
Gonzalez has a really long swing but he generates a ton of leverage with it. He has a huge power ceiling and is a good athlete but it could open him up to K a ton.
Phillip Evans, SS, NYM
Evans has a nice short swing and produces good pop for his size. He has good enough skills to stay at SS in the short term but he may outgrow it in the long run though.
Dillon Maples, P, CHC
Maples has a low 90's fastball and a sharp slider. He needs some polish but he has a lot of potential.
Jack Lopez, SS, KC
Great glove, hope the bat comes to life.
William Davis, P, NYY
Power arm that needs a lot of work.
Zach Wilson, 3B, NYY
Wilson has a big bat but that's it. He is poor at 3B, mediocre at best in LF but has a good approach and knows how to hit.
Matty Ott, RHP, BOS
Ott has good stuff and a bulldog mentality as the closer for LSU. He could maybe get a shot as a starter but is a sure bet to at least be a solid reliever in the majors.
A few more..
Trey Martin OF CHC
Jakob Junis P KC
Austin Urban P CHC
Ty Washington SS CIN
Navery Moore P ATL
Bradley Marquez OF NYM
Deion Williams 3B WSH
Tyler Greene SS PHI
Shawon Dunston OF CHC
Jonathan Griffin 1B ARI
Jacob Williams 1B ARI
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good read matt
I agree that AJ is a fairly accurate comp for Cole. I can’t see rendon being impactful anytime soon unless injuries strike.
by St.Steve on Feb 14, 2026 3:28 PM EST reply actions
Compared to other collegiate
bats, he should be the quickest impact. Joe Panik could as well but not the type of impact Rendon will. Logjams always work themselves out.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 14, 2026 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Kolten Wong for me
I don’t think his standard profile is all that different from Anthony Rendon’s in 5X5 parlance if all breaks right (never mind Rendon’s injury), & I doubt Rendon’s power potential (or lack thereof) will play all that well at 3b in standard fantasy formats. Many disagree with me seemingly though.
by Matt0330 on Feb 15, 2026 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
I think Rendon has enough
power for 3B as long as his shoulder is good and I believe it is. The average 3B in the majors only hits 20 HR’s and he should be able to do that.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Bundy up September of this year?
No way do I see that happening. If he was drafted by the Tigers, maybe, but HS arms don’t make the majors their first full year of pro ball. Sept. of 2013 would be more realistic, but even that is pushing it. He has to adapt to pro ball, build up his arm and innings, and hope he hits no major development roadblocks or injuries. If this were a bet, I’d be betting against you on this one Matt.
But, other than that, nice article.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 14, 2026 3:45 PM EST reply actions
I hope you are right
but it is the Orioles.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 14, 2026 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Was it Callis who said a scout told him that Bundy would be in an Opening Day rotation if he were 6'4"?
by PissedMick on Feb 14, 2026 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
I can see that mix up
Both have that sort of ‘windowless van owner’ look.
However, I think it was our boy Keith Law though in one of his chats who passed along that invaluable nugget re:Dylan Bundy.
by Matt0330 on Feb 15, 2026 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
Bundy's ETA
With all due respect, was this a mistake or a joke? I can’t even take the rest of this article seriously based on the absurd and completely unrealistic ETA you have predicted for him.
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
by Dominatio on Feb 14, 2026 5:14 PM EST reply actions
Not a mistake.
He is that advanced for a high school pitcher. He won’t need to gain 30 lbs to a 6’4" frame, he doesn’t need conditioning or anything like that. Yeah, a large amount of innings could harm him but if he pitched 120 dominant innings this summer and throws in a game or two in september, I wouldn’t be shocked. He is only a month younger than Bryce Harper and people are thinking he could break camp with the team this spring. I’m not saying Bundy is Harper, but I’m saying he doesn’t have three years of the minors in front of him.
Some things I will say here will get the “is that a joke” response. I don’t mind. I have never followed trends or the typical path, from a little boy on. I don’t see that changing. I put my thoughts out here. They may be stupid in 2-3 years. I put my name on it and I learn from it. My Astros shadow drafts are perfect examples of this.
Three years ago, I thought Brett Wallace would be a .315 career hitter with 75 doubles and 25 homers by now. I’m not afraid of making mistakes but the goal is to learn from it and get better. I’m a few years into that arc but far from the top of it.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 14, 2026 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
So, in that vein...
what would yoou say, in retrospect, you missed on Wallace?
Free at last!
by lhb98 on Feb 14, 2026 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
Constructive Criticism (hopefully)
That Brett Wallace prediction you speak of was shared by some. This Bundy prediction is just laughable. Why don’t you ask John what he thinks about it? It’s one thing to make bold predictions and statements but it’s another to just wander from any type of sane and logical assessment and lead other readers astray from the truth. I just feel bad for the readers who are going to read your prediction and make dynasty trades based off that and end up screwing themselves. I feel bad for those who don’t know any better and just come on here and read your writing based on the fact that John trusted you enough to post on his site.
I don’t want to be all negative here and I do agree with many of the other things you have wrritten above but I hope you will really at least think about and full consider what I am saying here.
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
by Dominatio on Feb 15, 2026 6:58 AM EST up reply actions
The Orioles
have told Bundy they expect him to be in the rotation in 2013. A seat on the bench when rosters expand isn’t out of the question to me.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
Anyone that trades for Bundy
in a dynasty will likely be happy they did.
I understand what you are saying though. I don’t talk to get people excited over nothing. Bundy is a very special player.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
Theres no denying that, but if someone is thinking i need a sp for my rotation in 2013, bundy isn’t the guy. The orioles would just be screwing themselves by bringing him up before he is completely ready. He can be as polished and nasty as any sp coming out of high school but to pitch effectively in the al east he’s going to need seasoning and development. 2014 if all goes great for him? yeah, but to expect anything in 2013 is a proposition i don’t agree with.
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
by Dominatio on Feb 15, 2026 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
That is true
if they are going on the premise of needing an SP in 2013, Bundy isn’t your guy. But if you are building long term…get him.
I play in two very deep dynasty leagues and a good reference point is to take the expected ETA and add at least a year before they are going to contribute regularly. Building in a dynasty almost always takes longer than you’d expect.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
False Link
Matt,
Your basic point about Bundy being an elite prospect is sound. What is unsound is the way you’re arguing that the Orioles have some sort of unprecedented fast track for him. That Balitmore Sun piece does not say at all what you imply it does. The quote is Bundy saying he and his team have a goal to be up by 2013, not that the Orioles have suggested any such thing.
For a last place team to rush a cost-controlled 20-year-old onto a big league roster in early 2013 would defy all common sense, even if the Orioles have little of it.
My own opinion is that John carries a lot of weight here because of this emphasis on well-reasoned. careful debate. I don’t see why you have to be hyperbolic and misquoting newspaper clippings to make your points.
Even if Bundy could get a cup of coffee in 2013, that would be a remarkable achievement.
by Nick Christie on Feb 16, 2026 5:15 AM EST up reply actions
John
does carry a ton of weight here. A hell of a lot more than I should. John does this for a living. He has been doing this a long time and worked with some of the best minds in the game and knows prospects as well as anyone out there.
I started this as a hobby and do it for a hobby, not my full time job. To do it that well, you need to do it more than an hour or two a day at best. I will make mistakes and I definitely won’t be pushing the scouting consensus on a guy if I don’t believe it. That’s me. I state what I see or what I get from good sources.
Here is what I read:
MacPhail will let him set the timetable:
“We will just allow him the opportunity, and he’ll show us how quick his timetable will be to the major leagues,” Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said.
Bundy will work for 2013:
“Definitely, the plan for me is to get up there [in the major leagues] in 2013. That’s a very high goal. We’ll see what happens,” said Bundy, who reports to Sarasota, Fla., on Wednesday . “We truly believe that I’m going to be up there in 2013 and help the Orioles win some games.”
Chris Tillman was rushed to the bigs and was a lot further from a finished product than Bundy. Matusz was up the year after he was drafted, although he was a college arm. As soon as their prospects show a little success in AA, they are up within a year. Adam Loewn, Hayden Penn. They skipped Daniel Cabrera from the SALLY League with middling success to the majors. That is a fast track and a pretty long track record for pushing prospects from AA to the majors and not letting them sit down there and develop all the way.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 16, 2026 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
I think their criticism is over the top
But you have to admit, nothing in those quotes suggest that he may be “up as early as September”, nor does it even suggest that he’d be up in “early 2013”.
Personally it’s not a big deal to me. I always think that “analysts” for anything will exaggerate, and you’re an idiot if you don’t do your own due diligence when researching and always take what the analysts say at face value.
And whereas analysts in other fields do shading things in the background, so their advice might be self-serving, it’s not like you really get a benefit out of telling fantasy players to buy Bundy, and then watching those fantasy players get upset that Bundy isn’t starting for their team in early 2013. In other words, I don’t think there’s any incentive for you to give an opinion that you don’t believe in, so I’m okay with your Bundy analysis.
I do think though, that you are very wrong in your Bundy prediction. I would put the over-under on Bundy starts in 2012 at 0, and the over-under on Bundy starts in 2013 at 8 (the point at which I’m indifferent, or 50/50, on number of Bundy starts).
by blue bulldog on Feb 16, 2026 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Sigh...
Matt,
I have no doubt you put a ton of effort into your writings and your analysis. I really don’t.
But, I’m just surprised at how hard you’re tying to support this one thing. The only guy in recent memory who did what you think Bundy can do with any success is Clayton Kershaw, and he came up in summer before throwing around 100 MLB innings with a 1.50 WHIP. Turner got a cup of coffee last year, and Porcello was a disaster before him; still, they got up because the Tigers were desperate for wins, not because it was good developmentally.
Anyway, you can choose to ignore what I or anyone says, as clearly John trusts you, so you’re set. But, again, I found your usage of an article that doesn’t say at all what you linked it to say, as off-putting.
by Nick Christie on Feb 16, 2026 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
'Sigh'
(queue Sideshow Bob-esque shudder)
Why won’t this beyond dismissive meme just die..
PS - It can take ‘really?’ & ‘meh’ along with it too.
by Matt0330 on Feb 16, 2026 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
I’m just surprised at how hard you’re tying to support this one thing
I’m a little surprised at how this is being belabored. It’s an aggressive prediction. Folks need to get over it.
by charles wallace on Feb 16, 2026 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not trying to support
it. I’m trying to give insight as to why I said it and my logic. It sure doesn’t mean I’m right. It is bold and if I’m wrong, so be it. It won’t be the first nor the last.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 16, 2026 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
"with any success"
I think that is a huge point you are skipping. While it probably wouldn’t be good for his development, the organization, roto leagues, etc., there is still a decent chance the Orioles go this route. They have shown no inclination to change their player development process as far as I can see.
by pedrophile on Feb 17, 2026 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
False Link - disagree
There are a few things that really stand out with that link:
1) The Orioles state they will let Bundy set the timetable. This implies they will follow their strategy they used on past pitchers. If Bundy appears ready up he comes. This means “cost-controlled” will not affect the equation. It also implies he may follow the very quick path Tillman, Matusz, and others followed.
2) It’s a major league contract. That is 3 or 4 options. It’s only 4 options in the case of major injury, leave of absence, etc. Of course with a major injury all bets are off. So that leaves us with 3 option years. Bundy HAS to be on the major league roster after 3 years.
So I doubt they wait until the 3 years is up, because frequently pitchers struggle on their first cup of coffee and need to go back down. This timeline leads one to believe he should get a decent amount of starts in 2013, and a shot at opening day roster in 2014, because in 2015 he has to be there. This is slightly behind Matt’s prediction but not much.
by pedrophile on Feb 17, 2026 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
i feel like
that’s a pretty big difference in terms of predictions for fantasy value
by blue bulldog on Feb 17, 2026 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
No
If you think that Bundy will follow the Porcello track, power to you. Like Bluedog, I think the safe analysis is a) that won’t happen, b) would be ridiculous, and c) not make Bundy a better fantasy asset.
But, stop using a random Baltimore Sun story to buttress that opinion. That’s the part that mystifies me. It’s a random piece that quotes an exuberant post-draft Bundy (who can’t wait to be in the Bigs) and a politically cautious response (that is no different than the hundreds of quotes about other guys). Inserting that into the equation is not evidence, but noise.
by Nick Christie on Feb 18, 2026 1:03 AM EST up reply actions
For what it's worth, that prediction is not at all laughable.
Unless, by laughable, you mean something completely different than what ‘laughable’ means.
by PissedMick on Feb 15, 2026 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
it is laughable in the "its better to laugh then cry" way
since Baltimore will probably do just that. Not that I’m implying Baltimore hasn’t developed pitchers very well …
by pedrophile on Feb 15, 2026 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't call it laughable
Kershaw could have handled a couple of september starts in 07, and might have got some if the Dodgers weren’t in the thick of a division race/needed a PR boost the way the Orioles will.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
by TomCat009 on Feb 16, 2026 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
it's not laughable at all
Sure, humor is subjective & all but it seems like a valid opinion to me (& no, I haven’t waded through all of those posts arduously).
by Matt0330 on Feb 16, 2026 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe it's funny to him that a guy who will be a full year older than Felix was in 05
would get a couple starts in 2013, but it certainly doesn’t seem hyperbolic to me
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
by TomCat009 on Feb 16, 2026 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
First, he won't be a full year older
Second, Felix had already thrown over 300 minor league innings at that point
by nixa37 on Feb 16, 2026 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
great work
you’re def on the right side of the Bundy argument. It’s a thought that is shared by many in the industry, I have harder time finding a source that says Bundy will be in the minors for 3 years than I do finding a reference to his ability to move fast.
by Chris Buckley on Feb 16, 2026 7:46 AM EST up reply actions
Matt is right on this one
I did a comp piece on Bundy and Taillon, which contained some brief thoughts on his eta. Through the research I did, and the recent comments be Keith Law on Bundy in his top prospects list, there is no reason to scoff at the thought of Bundy appearing in September or being a full time MLB starter in 2013. It is completely plausible and is a reflection of his work ethic, skill set, and talent. It’s not like he’s saying it will definitely happen, and to call it absurd and unrealsitic reflects a lack of knowledge on the subject matter, if you read any of the prospect guru’s and their thoughts on Bundy it’s clear he is expected to move fast through the system.
by Chris Buckley on Feb 16, 2026 7:44 AM EST up reply actions
a little over enthusiastic IMO
high school innings to MLB innings in one year will be too much IMO. He also will be starting later than the MLB, the minors starts later, so there is that.
My guess at his progression:
He had 71 IP in 2011. A solid but conservative approach would be 100 IP with 5 IP per start, this would have him start 20 times. That means he would be shut down sometime very early in August.
The only two ways he is pitching later are either they significant raise that IP limit which is very scary, or if he starts in short-season ball. This would get him to September but then he would need to jump 5 levels to get to the majors, I don’t see that happening. He probably starts in low-A with maybe 50 IP there and another 50IP in high-A. Some in AA is possible.
In 2013 he would be ready for 130 IP. I could see him starting in AA and around June getting called up to make a few starts and then relieve so they could drag out his IP.
Then in 2014 he would be able to jump to 170 to 180 which is almost a full starters load.
Then in 2015 when he has to be on the roster all year he would be ready for 200 IP.
Obviously this is far too much too predict in advance. But the IP progression is something almost every GM and org has a very strong hand on.
by pedrophile on Feb 17, 2026 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
He was mentioned
He may get a shot before Bauer. It all depends how Spring Training and rosters shake out.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, and Sonny Gray
was a good name too. Went right to Double-A and looked comfortable.
by charles wallace on Feb 16, 2026 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
Bubba Starling
was it close between Bell and Starling for the high risk high reward high school player?
by mighty_triton626 on Feb 14, 2026 6:56 PM EST reply actions
My take
is that scout know a lot more about Bell in terms of in-game action and how he performs. Starling still seems like an unknown as scouts don’t have much, if any, information about how he performs in game.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 15, 2026 2:51 AM EST up reply actions
from what I have gathered
the biggest question about Starling is the “hit” tool — deemed to be one of the best tools for Bell.
I spoke with a scout that LOVED Starling — labeling him a “physical specimen”. Raw power off the charts. Speed, arm, etc. Never recall him raving about how well he hit, but put emphasis on the power component. Unfortunately, that same scout didn’t see Bell.
by insane_sanity on Feb 15, 2026 5:59 AM EST up reply actions
Joel Guzmans
was also a “physical specimen”. Baseball is littered with the floating corpses of LOADS of physical specimens who proved they couldn’t hit a curve ball.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 15, 2026 6:59 AM EST up reply actions
Bubba Starling
never, repeat NEVER, concentrated on baseball only. Giving him the opportunity to do so is also built into the projections I believe…
I don’t believe that to be the case with Joel Guzman…
by insane_sanity on Feb 15, 2026 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Bauer
I have my doubts about when he’s going to join Arizona
the way our FO is, and the general depth of pitching we already have in the majors (he’s not going to get called up, unless Collmenter or Saunders struggles, and even then, Skaggs or Miley or even Corbin might get first dibs)……i would be surprised if Bauer got more than 15 starts this year in the majors
i have no idea how the Mariners feel about pushing Hultzen, but he might be able to make more of an impact (at least in terms of number of starts) than Bauer this year
by blue bulldog on Feb 14, 2026 8:17 PM EST reply actions
That makes sense
I would think Skaggs may get a look first but I would hope Bauer would get the call before Miley and Corbin, but that is just me.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
i think
the fans in AZ would universally agree with that
but for some reason our FO just gives me pause when it comes to calling up Bauer…
by blue bulldog on Feb 15, 2026 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
how about bostick (SSS i know) and rickles
as some sleepers from the a’s draft class. rhett stafford although he put up his numbers at rookie level, too
Snoochies
by guessatomo on Feb 14, 2026 10:09 PM EST reply actions
also
sonny gray will probably be up in september, if not before then when the a’s (most likely) trade a bunch of pitchers off
Snoochies
by guessatomo on Feb 14, 2026 10:11 PM EST reply actions
hmmm
Didn’t Gray sign a non-ML deal….$1.54m bonus?
IMO, there is absolutely NO reason for the A’s to rush him up in September. All that will do is get the clock started early on him, and I don’t think the Oakland FO will do so.
by insane_sanity on Feb 15, 2026 6:03 AM EST up reply actions
With the way
they are building, I’d keep him down too but if he is dominating, you don’t want him to get frustrated either.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 9:33 AM EST up reply actions
I understand where you are coming from
Getting a cup of coffee at the END of the season could happen, I guess. I also think that pitching most of a season in the PCL could be a very good learning experience for him.
I see Oakland and just continue to think "small city club…minimize cost and maximize team control. He had a handful of starts in AA last season, I’d give him a handful to start the season…and put him in AAA, keeping an eye on his IP as he works up the ladder. I just see absolutely no reason to rush him (unless getting him OUT of the PCL counts…).
by insane_sanity on Feb 15, 2026 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
i don't think
the September cup of coffee hurts his clock though
and it seems like he’s going to be moving fast because they had him in AA this year
i agree with guessatomo that there’s a decent shot Gray ends up in the majors in September
by blue bulldog on Feb 15, 2026 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
September time counts
it just doesn’t affect ROY and roster size is of course expanded. But it definitely counts as service time.
by pedrophile on Feb 15, 2026 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
but it doesn't affect
years of control or arbitration obligations right?
by blue bulldog on Feb 15, 2026 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
It does count towards years of team control and aritration
The only thing it doesn’t count for is ROY eligibility
by nixa37 on Feb 15, 2026 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
i'm not sure what you mean
when does FA and Arb 1 hit for a May 2012 callup?
when does FA and Arb 1 hit for a September 2012 callup?
when does FA and Arb 1 hit for a May 2013 callup?
by blue bulldog on Feb 15, 2026 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
sorry
don’t know why i used May
just use April, as in, Opening Day callup
by blue bulldog on Feb 15, 2026 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
That's because of how much service time you need to count for a year
It does have an effect on the clock though. If A gets the call in September and B doesn’t, then the next season B’s team only needs to wait 2-3 weeks (or whatever the exact number is) to gain a 7th year of team control, while A’s team has to wait until a month later to accomplish the same thing.
by nixa37 on Feb 15, 2026 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
wait
honest question
so the FA dates for a September 2012 callup and an April 2013 callup are the same right?
and obviously, the FA dates for a September 2012 callup and a September 2013 callup are a year apart
but at which point in the 2013 season, does the shift between same date, versus year apart, happen?
by blue bulldog on Feb 16, 2026 4:18 AM EST up reply actions
It depends on total service time
Last year, the Rays had to keep Jennings in the minors for an extra month to get the extra year of control, because he had been up for most of September 2010. I think these things are to do with total time spent on big league rosters.
by A Behemoth on Feb 16, 2026 6:45 AM EST up reply actions
That will
get more difficult now with the new CBA as there is a higher percentage of super 2’s than there was in the past. Teams should just play the best players. Bring them up, if they need more time, that’s what options are for. Control what you can(playing your best players) , not what you can’t(super 2 date).
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 16, 2026 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
There's still the incentive of a 7th year of service
Even if you have to pay more because of the player going through arb 4 times instead of 3, the added value of an extra year is still going to affect some teams decisions.
by nixa37 on Feb 16, 2026 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I believe its something like 2-3 weeks
A lot of people were ripping the Braves for starting Heyward in the bigs in 2010 when they could have kept him down for 2-3 weeks and gotten an extra year of team control.
by nixa37 on Feb 16, 2026 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
The more I read about Baez
the more I want him on my minor league roster.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 15, 2026 2:52 AM EST reply actions
Quick question
Mike Mahtook seems to be somewhat polarizing. Some of us love him and think he was an absolute steal primarily because he’s good at baseball, but others seem to dock him for his lack of ‘plus tools’. I especially like him in roto type formats as I think he’ll move quickly (which is probably the most important factor to me in long term formats if all else is similar). I think he’s a better dynastic play than George Spinger for example, but I’m somewhat risk averse in rotisserie.
What do you think the future portends for Mahtook? (To the author of this piece & anyone else too)
by Matt0330 on Feb 15, 2026 9:55 AM EST reply actions
i agree and was suprised to see him unlisted above
i think he could be ready for 2013 and will produce solid stats, a little of everything, won’t kill you anywhere, very useful player
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
by Dominatio on Feb 15, 2026 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
He showed
good power in the games I saw of him, enough to think he can hit 20 in the majors. At CF that is extremely valuable, but he is likely a corner guy and a perfectly good starting OF. He should steal 15 bags on intelligence and solid speed, hit .280 and walk enough to help. He should hover around MLB average at LF for his career and that is valuable. I would take him over Springer in a fantasy league but that is just me.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the feedback, guys
I agree with both of you. In somewhat rare fantasy leagues where precise OF positioning is important, Mahtook would certainly be most valuable as a CF but I agree he will likely be a value anywhere if he performs like we all think he’s capable. I could see him being a sneaky good contributor almost immediately in the standard 5 OF per team roto leagues that many play in.
by Matt0330 on Feb 16, 2026 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Deion Williams = Really Deep Sleeper?
I’ll say. He slashed .157/.216/.157 in the GCL, with 11 errors in 27 games. Ouch.
by d_c_guy on Feb 15, 2026 10:34 AM EST reply actions
GCL stats are almost
meaningless. 6’3", 180, athletci with good bloodlines is enough for me to give a little slack and be patient with.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough; I'm not saying the Nationals should give up on him
But I’m surprised (impressed?) that he’s even on the radar at the RDS level. :-)
by d_c_guy on Feb 15, 2026 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I should have added more levels to it because he is a lot further away than Phillip Evans or Tyler Greene but he’s worth watching.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 15, 2026 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Story
really appears to be under the radar, or underrated. I would think a 5 tool SS would get more buzz. I took him in rd 35/50 in a 16 team dynasty league, thought I received great value with that selection.
by Chris Buckley on Feb 16, 2026 7:56 AM EST reply actions
Montgomery
Is that report recent? He had shoulder problems last spring and his velocity was down. Hard to imagine he’s suddenly up to 92-95 with good secondaries.
by nmigliore on Feb 17, 2026 9:43 AM EST reply actions
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