BA Top 100

by guru4u on Feb 21, 2026 11:16 AM EST

Yes, it is that time. Feel free to discuss/tear apart/drool/etc.

Rk.	Player	Pos., Team	Age	ETA
1	Bryce Harper	of, Nationals	Age: 19.	ETA: 2012.
He should get to the majors as a teenager; settle in and enjoy it.
2	Matt Moore	lhp, Rays	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
He makes it look so easy, and he's so good he'll make David Price a No. 2 starter.
3	Mike Trout	of, Angels	Age: 20.	ETA: 2012.
His signing scout, Greg Mohrhardt, has since been promoted to Angels crosschecker.
4	Yu Darvish	rhp, Rangers	Age: 25.	ETA: 2012.
It's hard to moderate expectations for proven Japanese ace, but he should definitely surpass the Dice-K bar.
5	Julio Teheran	rhp, Braves	Age: 21.	ETA: 2012.
There's absolutely no link between his last name and Darvish's Iranian heritage.
6	Jesus Montero	c, Mariners	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
He should face less pressure replacing Miguel Olivo rather than Jorge Posada.
7	Jurickson Profar	ss, Rangers	Age: 19.	ETA: 2013
He should beat out golf, cheesy theme parks as Myrtle Beach's top 2012 attraction.
8	Shelby Miller	rhp, Cardinals	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013
He's looking to become the first big leaguer named Shelby, and it should happen soon.
9	Trevor Bauer	rhp, Diamondbacks	Age: 21.	ETA: 2012
The unique ones are the hardest to project, and no one's as unique as Bauer.
10	Dylan Bundy	rhp, Orioles	Age: 19.	ETA: 2013.
First goal: Beat big brother Bobby to Baltimore. Next: Make the Orioles relevant.
11	Manny Machado	ss, Orioles	Age: 19.	ETA: 2013
Power-hitting shortstop can restore honor to the phrase "Manny being Manny."
12	Gerrit Cole	rhp, Pirates	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
UCLA's second-best pitcher in 2011 still was good enough to go No. 1 in the draft.
13	Tyler Skaggs	lhp, Diamondbacks	Age: 20.	ETA: 2012.
He didn't get the 200-strikeout memo in 2011 and thought his 198 would be enough.
14	Yoenis Cespedes	of, Athletics	Age: 26.	ETA: 2012.
Athletics hope he works out better than their last blockbuster Cuban, Ariel Prieto.
15	Jameson Taillon	rhp, Pirates	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
Ready to throw Pitch 76 as a pro for the first time as Pirates should remove the bubble wrap in 2012.
16	Devin Mesoraco	c, Reds	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
The Punxsutawney, Pa., native expects to deliver at least six more years of slugging in Cincinnati.
17	Travis d'Arnaud	c, Blue Jays	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
Brother Chase beat him to the big leagues, but Travis' ceiling is higher.
18	Miguel Sano	3b/ss, Twins	Age: 18.	ETA: 2014.
You could see more errors than home runs in his first full season, but over time homers will go up and errors will come down.
19	Anthony Rendon	3b, Nationals	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Even with one good shoulder, he was the top hitter in last year's draft.
20	Taijuan Walker	rhp, Mariners	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
Legitimate comparisons to Dwight Gooden (the good, pitching part)? Sign us up.
21	Danny Hultzen	lhp, Mariners	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
He's apples to Walker's oranges as a polished college lefty, but he offers plenty of upside himself.
22	Jacob Turner	rhp, Tigers	Age: 20.	ETA: 2012.
Already a graduate of the Rick Porcello school of accelerated Tigers timetables.
23	Mike Montgomery	lhp, Royals	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
Bauer's former prep teammate has to beat Bauer to the big leagues, doesn't he?
24	Bubba Starling	of, Royals	Age: 19.	ETA: 2015.
Won't even have to reach his ceiling to be baseball's best-ever Bubba (sorry, Bubba Smith).
25	Archie Bradley	rhp, Diamondbacks	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014
Which Oklahoma prep product will get to the majors Sooner, Bradley or Bundy?
26	Jarrod Parker	rhp, Athletics	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
Could be the next great A's pitcher to be traded away in three years.
27	Carlos Martinez	rhp, Cardinals	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
No matter what his name is, his fastball's one of the minors' best.
28	Wil Myers	of, Royals	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Gets a mulligan for his injury-plagued 2011 after posting a 1.156 OPS in the AFL.
29	Manny Banuelos	lhp, Yankees	Age: 21.	ETA: 2012.
Yankees player-development boss Mark Newman compared his poise to Whitey Ford—when Banuelos was 18.
30	Drew Pomeranz	lhp, Rockies	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
Walk rate keeps dropping, from college (4.38 BB/9) to minors (3.74) to majors (2.45).
31	Martin Perez	lhp, Rangers	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
His stuff is special enough that he ranks 31st in spite of a career 20-24, 4.22 record, including a 6.43 ERA in Triple-A last year.
32	Brett Jackson	of, Cubs	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
Steadily moving up the charts (38th on last year's Top 100) like a Foo Fighters song.
33	Yonder Alonso	of/1b, Padres	Age: 24.	ETA: 2012.
Must be happy to leave left field and backing up Joey Votto behind, even for Petco.
34	Jonathan Singleton	1b/of, Astros	Age: 20.	ETA: 2013.
Will move back to first base now that he's no longer stuck behind Ryan Howard.
35	Zack Wheeler	rhp, Mets	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Will have to pay Paul DePodesta to dress up like Dick Tidrow now that he's a Met.
36	Brad Peacock	rhp, Athletics	Age: 24.	ETA: 2012.
Joined Parker and other trade acquisitions to make over Athletics farm system in days.
37	Francisco Lindor	ss, Indians	Age: 18.	ETA: 2014.
Shockingly, he's the fifth Francisco in Top 100 history, but the first hitter (following Cordero, Liriano, Rodriguez and Rosario).
38	Gary Brown	of, Giants	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
He has speed and defense to spare. Now he just has to perform outside the California League.
39	Anthony Gose	of, Blue Jays	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Physical dead-ringer for Nyjer Morgan has bigger tools than T-Plush.
40	Arodys Vizcaino	rhp, Braves	Age: 21.	ETA: 2012.
Third trip to the Top 100 for the first Arodys should be the last.
41	Christian Yelich	of, Marlins	Age: 20.	ETA: 2013.
No one cares how you throw when you can hit and run like Yelich.
42	Nolan Arenado	3b, Rockies	Age: 20.	ETA: 2013.
Should be a better version of former Rockies prospect Ian Stewart—less power but more contact.
43	Mike Olt	3b, Rangers	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
See, not all the Rangers' top prospects are international signees.
44	Hak-Ju Lee	ss, Rays	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Rays might reverse policy of moving prospects slowly, considering their big league shortstops posted a .539 OPS in 2011.
45	Nick Castellanos	3b, Tigers	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
No one will be more interested in the results of Miguel Cabrera's move back to third.
46	Randall Delgado	rhp, Braves	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
It feels like the mid-1990s with Atlanta's young pitching depth.
47	Anthony Rizzo	1b, Cubs	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
No prospect made as good a ballpark move as Rizzo's in going from Petco to Wrigley.
48	Billy Hamilton	ss, Reds	Age: 21.	ETA: 2014.
Posted the first 100-steal year in the minors in a decade; can he continue to do it at higher levels?
49	Rymer Liriano	of, Padres	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
The best ratio of talent to hype in the minors will put up loud Cal League numbers this season.
50	Jarred Cosart	rhp, Astros	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Another key trade piece helping to make over the Astros farm system, he seeks to marry consistency with one of the minors' most electric arms.
51	Will Middlebrooks	3b, Red Sox	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
"Middle"brooks was No. 50 before Yoenis Cespedes signed. Pure coincidence.
52	James Paxton	lhp, Mariners	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
Long wait for him to begin his professional career was worth it, as fresh Canadian arm was better in 2011 than he had ever been as an amateur.
53	Yasmani Grandal	c, Padres	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
Sticks with former Hurricanes teammate Yonder Alonso in moving to San Diego, and likewise avoids a major league roadblock in Mesoraco.
54	Matt Harvey	rhp, Mets	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
He has the stuff to outperform recent Tar Heels alumni in a major league rotation, with the bullpen a good fallback option.
55	Jean Segura	ss, Angels	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Premium tools, but just two spots higher than he ranked last year, thanks to hamstring problems.
56	Wily Peralta	rhp, Brewers	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
Best Brewers international signing since Juan Nieves? Maybe, though there's not much competition for the honor.
57	A.J. Cole	rhp, Athletics	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
Projectable 6-foot-4, 190-pounder came over in trade with the Nationals and now will play the jeans salesman in "Moneyball II."
58	Xander Bogaerts	ss, Red Sox	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
An Aruba native, Bogaerts apparently is Papiamento for "jaw-dropping, precocious power."
59	George Springer	of, Astros	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Figures to battle Rangers' Mike Olt for title of best UConn position player in the big leagues.
60	Josh Bell	of, Pirates	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
Still waiting for the addendum to his mom's letter to major league clubs that says, " . . . unless you offer us $5 million."
61	Javier Baez	ss, Cubs	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
Bat speed, Florida high school shortstop background . . . let the Gary Sheffield comparisons begin.
62	Zach Lee	rhp, Dodgers	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
Would he have made the difference as Les Miles' quarterback against Alabama? Unfortunately for Louisiana State, he really knows how to pitch.
63	Dellin Betances	rhp, Yankees	Age: 24.	ETA: 2013.
Last year he became the 10th member of New York's 2006 draft class to reach the majors.
64	Matt Szczur	of, Cubs	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Exciting high-risk, high-reward talent who should take off with football in his rearview mirror.
65	Sonny Gray	rhp, Athletics	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Following David Price and Mike Minor, Gray should be next Commodore to sail on to the majors.
66	Addison Reed	rhp, White Sox	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
Making his own way after being known as Stephen Strasburg's closer in college.
67	Jake Marisnick	of, Blue Jays	Age: 21.	ETA: 2014.
Scouts doubted his bat as an amateur, but he's putting those doubts to rest.
68	Jake Odorizzi	rhp, Royals	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Part of the Royals' "next wave," which would be really their first wave of arms.
69	Trevor May	rhp, Phillies	Age: 22.	ETA: 2014.
While he's not a finished product, you just can't ignore 11.88 SO/9 IP over his career. At least we can't.
70	Taylor Jungmann	rhp, Brewers	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
His career 1.85 college ERA could double and he'd still be an effective pro.
71	Jed Bradley	lhp, Brewers	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Jungmann's wing man was drafted three spots later and sticks with him in Top 100 as well.
72	Blake Swihart	c, Red Sox	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
He'd be on the list even if he couldn't catch thanks to his hitting ability.
73	Starling Marte	of, Pirates	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
Good enough defensively to spur talk of pushing Andrew McCutchen to a corner.
74	Oscar Taveras	of, Cardinals	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
Granted, it was only the Midwest League, but the highest average (.386) in the loop since 1956 is enough to get your attention.
75	Zack Cozart	ss, Reds	Age: 26.	ETA: 2012.
Big league ready for most of the last two years; just needs to stay healthy.
76	Casey Kelly	rhp, Padres	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
No longer young for his age, his stuff is fine, but it's time for him to produce.
77	Nick Franklin	ss/2b, Mariners	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Switch-hitting middle infielder with power needs to show 2011 was the fluke, not 2010.
78	Cory Spangenberg	2b, Padres	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Athleticism, speed, hitting ability and a strong pro debut make him the minors' best second-base prospect.
79	Leonys Martin	of, Rangers	Age: 24.	ETA: 2012.
He's likely good enough to beat out Julio Borbon, David Murphy in Texas, but will he be a star or just solid?
80	Michael Choice	of, Athletics	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Presents the classic tradeoff of huge strikeout totals for large home run totals.
81	Gary Sanchez	c, Yankees	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
Took hits for his defensive ability and makeup in his first full season, but dished them out with his bat.
82	Jonathan Schoop	inf, Orioles	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
His power potential and infield actions are far beyond his brother Sharlon's.
83	Garrett Richards	rhp, Angels	Age: 23.	ETA: 2012.
He has the stuff for the front of a rotation, if not yet the command or polish.
84	Cheslor Cuthbert	3b, Royals	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
Hit his way from Nicaragua's Corn Islands to our Top 100; if he stays at third, he'll be special.
85	Mason Williams	of, Yankees	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
Heads up a deep, athletic group of Yankees prospects headed to low Class A Charleston.
86	Chad Bettis	rhp, Rockies	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Tyler Matzek and other premium Colorado draft arms need to figure out what Bettis is doing.
87	Wilin Rosario	c, Rockies	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
His prospect stock took a tumble when his performance slipped post-knee surgery, but he still offers power and defense.
88	Zack Cox	3b, Cardinals	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Should be a steady performer at third at a minimum, but will need to to show more power to be a premium player.
89	Chris Archer	rhp, Rays	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
Still needs to prove his 2010 breakout wasn't a fluke, and might have more impact in the bullpen.
90	Taylor Guerrieri	rhp, Rays	Age: 19.	ETA: 2015.
High risk, but brings substantial upside to an organization known for developing pitchers.
91	Daniel Norris	lhp, Blue Jays	Age: 18.	ETA: 2015.
Toronto has tremendous pitching depth, and even though power lefty Norris hasn't debuted yet he still tops the list.
92	Andrelton Simmons	ss, Braves	Age: 22.	ETA: 2014.
Age-appropriate Carolina League batting champs who can defend are good bets.
93	Kolten Wong	2b, Cardinals	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Similar profile to Cory Spangenberg, with less speed but perhaps more polish.
94	Tyrell Jenkins	rhp, Cardinals	Age: 19.	ETA: 2014.
One of Jeff Luhnow's parting gifts to St. Louis was drafting this premium athlete in 2010.
95	Allen Webster	rhp, Dodgers	Age: 22.	ETA: 2013.
Despite low budgets, the Dodgers have scored in the draft with under-the-radar finds like Webster.
96	Nate Eovaldi	rhp, Dodgers	Age: 22.	ETA: 2012.
Dodgers have intriguing arms to build around, if new ownership gives them the money to do so.
97	Matt Davidson	3b/1b, Diamondbacks	Age: 21.	ETA: 2013.
Pushing his way past Diamondbacks draft peer Bobby Borchering as a power-hitting third baseman.
98	Jedd Gyorko	3b, Padres	Age: 23.	ETA: 2013.
Could be the best hitter from the state of West Virginia since Nick Swisher posted a .909 OPS in the minors.
99	Joe Benson	of, Twins	Age: 24.	ETA: 2012.
Ready for his Target Field closeup . . . so he's probably headed to Rochester.
100	Christian Villanueva	3b, Rangers	Age: 20.	ETA: 2014.
Best Hickory Crawdads third baseman since Jose Bautista in 2002.

Poll

Who is your #1?

Tweet Comment 125 comments | Add comment | 3 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Swihart is way too high

Lavarnway should be on here. What makes Sano 18, but Bogaerts 58, and Cuthbert 84?

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 11:18 AM EST reply actions

Correction Lavarnway should absolutely not be on here.

Swihart should at least be considered, although i agree he barely sneaks on for me.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 21, 2026 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

well

a significant portion of the community here disagrees with you on the Lavarnway issue

by blue bulldog on Feb 21, 2026 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

1. I was surprised to see Profar at #7. I agree with the ranking, but most people are wanting to put him #4 (or #5 if you rank Darvish). I still say Machado > Profar, but I also know I am in the minority there and the separation is very small.

2. Obviously BA did not overreact to Teheran’s MLB debut like a lot of people here did. I was happy to see that, though you can make a strong case for Miller over Teheran.

3. Bauer is simply overrated IMO. I know Callis was very high on Bauer going into the draft, and his opinion weighs very heavily in the BA rankings.

4. Sano at 18 and Cuthbert at 84 makes no sense to me. BA obviously does not fully agree with John’s analysis (I happen to side with Mr. Sickels on that argument). I saw Cuthbert play 6 times last year, and he was damn impressive. I think he will hit for more power than most do around here. The lack of stride does not bother me one bit, but he will have to add just a little more loft to his swing (which the KC hitting coaches can work with him on that).

5. Rendon at 19 is a good ranking IMO - equally balancing the huge upside with the huge risk of the shoulder injury. Shoulder problems have absolutely killed some hitters (Andy LaRoche being the #1 example), which not bothering others (e.g. Adrian Gonzalez).

6. Wil Myers at 28 was a bit low, but I can see how they would want to see him healthy for a full season before putting him up with the elite.

7. Brett Jackson at 32 seems too high. Maybe I am too low on the guy, but I don’t see the ceiling necessary to justify that high of a ranking.

8. Gose at 39 and Marisnick at 67 - I’d flip the two. Gose is a good bet to be a solid big leaguer, but the comp to Nyjer Morgan hits the nail on the head. Morgan really should just be a platoon guy - he is not a first division starter by any stretch. I’m not sure how making the comp to Morgan is a compliment for Gose. I’d rather have Marisnick in my system.

9. The rankings of the MWL OF’s in general are interesting. I’d have them in a different order myself, but having Yelich first was probably the biggest surprise to me.

by guru4u on Feb 21, 2026 11:35 AM EST reply actions

Sano at 18

and Cuthbert at 83 makes no sense, also Bogaerts at 58.

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

meant Cuthbert at 84

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Gary Sanchez

probably belongs in this discussion as well. Unlike Sano, Sanchez, Cuthbert, and Bogaerts have all shown that they can hack it in full season ball. Obviously scouting is an important factor, but the separation between Sano and the other 3 seems a little excessive.

http://www.yankeeanalysts.com

by lemonjello on Feb 21, 2026 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

well

I was just going with Cuthbert and Bogaerts because they are both on the left side of the infield with Sano. Bogaerts, some people say he has no chance to stay at SS, some say he has a chance. Like Mike Newman at fangraphs says Bogaerts has a better chance at sticking at SS than Machado, and maybe has a 40% chance.

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

also, scouting is a factor

but all three other guys have fantastic scouting reports too, it’s not like they’re some 26 year old in AAA who has no scouting reports at all but absolutely mashes(who can be an underrated player) these guys have really good scouting reports.

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

They obviously don't like...

Cuthbert’s size and projectability compared to Sano.

by Havok1517 on Feb 22, 2026 2:10 AM EST up reply actions

Nice write-up

Quite insightful

by MjwW on Feb 21, 2026 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Nyjer Morgan is an awful comparison. He’s got non-existent power and hit a career high 4 HR (even in minor leagues, he didn’t hit any better). He struggles to walk much but Gose manages to walk an above average rate. Gose is a much better basestealer, better defensively, with a great arm. Gose struggles to make contact and all Morgan does is make weak contact and keep his strikeouts down.

That comparison makes no sense.

by Sniderlover on Feb 21, 2026 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

Anthony Gose-Nyjer Morgan

I think the basis for the contrast was purely physical (meaning they look alike). At least that’s the way I read it.

by Matt0330 on Feb 21, 2026 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Ya

and man do they look alike. Hadn’t noticed that before.

Twitter
Buried Treasure - #5 Prospect Josh Bell
Buried Treasure - Reaction: AJ Burnett Trade

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2026 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

That actually makes sense

Maybe I overreacted to the comp then. I was confused how they ranked Gose inside the top 50 yet compared him to Morgan.

by guru4u on Feb 21, 2026 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

i don't think

you’re supposed to take the one-liners seriously

and yeah, they are definitely relating him to Morgan physically

by blue bulldog on Feb 21, 2026 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

yeah that could be the case I guess but I still don’t know why you would do that unless you want to confuse the reader.

by Sniderlover on Feb 21, 2026 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

That's racist!

Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap
Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap
Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap

by ViolentMike on Feb 21, 2026 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

Come on, man

It wasn’t my joke but I think that is what the writer was going for though.

‘I guess we all look the same to you, Costanza’ - Mr. Morgan

by Matt0330 on Feb 23, 2026 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

lol, no worries, I was joking too.

Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap
Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap
Let's go Giants!!! clap clap clap-clap-clap

by ViolentMike on Feb 23, 2026 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

seems a bit too simplistic of an answer, but...

Marcus (Kentucky): How come Miguel Sano ranks so high in comparison to players that seem very similar and are more proven than him such as Nolan Arenado, Xander Bogaerts, or Cheslor Cuthbert?

Jim Callis: His power upside puts him ahead of those guys. He has well above-average power, maybe as much as any prospect besides Bryce Harper.

by hybrid on Feb 21, 2026 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

No Grossman or Heredia for the Pirates. I know opinions are pretty divided on each.

by Woo! on Feb 21, 2026 11:36 AM EST reply actions

I was

99.9% Heredia wouldn’t make it (too ceiling-oriented of a prospect), but Grossman is a bit surprising.

Still love seeing four Pirates on there.

Twitter
Buried Treasure - #5 Prospect Josh Bell
Buried Treasure - Reaction: AJ Burnett Trade

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2026 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

I really like Grossman

love the plate discipline. I don’t like Heredia that much, too far away.

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

What the *%%#?

Awful list! # 88 should be ahead of # 57. Why is #24 ahead of #27? #34, #47, and #54 should be flipped and rearranged! Why do some loser major prospectors like #20 over MY guy? BA should have me writing this list and not these hack scouts they employ.

by johnorpheus on Feb 21, 2026 12:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

BA employs scouts?

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2026 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

Yes.

XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1

by DominicanDandy on Feb 21, 2026 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

I'm pretty sure

He is making a joke here.

by auclairkeithbc on Feb 21, 2026 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

yes he is joking

but he is also implying we should give them more credit than they are due. BA does not employ scouts, they do on occasion discuss prospects with scouts. This facet of BA seems to be overblown quite a bit.

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2026 7:16 PM EST up reply actions

to be honest though

i’d trust BA a lot less, if their writers like Callis were “scouts”, as opposed to “analysts”

to me, a good analyst means you are a good decisionmaker/risk evaluator

a good scout or good statistician is a good information gatherer

i think those are very different skill sets

by blue bulldog on Feb 21, 2026 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

No, they don't employ 'scouts', because a scout is by definition employed by a major league team.

Your suggestion that they don’t possess many of the same skills is a bit much, however. Guys have moved on from BA to work as scouts for MLB teams in the past. Calling somebody like Callis or Manuel a scout is technically incorrect, but isn’t too far from the truth.

by PissedMick on Feb 22, 2026 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

Any of the reputable analysts have some of the same skills as scouts, agreed

But when the OP made the last comment it was akin to saying we shouldn’t question BA because they employ scouts. This is an appeal to authority argument and while some of the people employed by BA are more expert than most, if not all, of the people here it’s not something where we should blindly agree with what they say.

Callis, Manuel, etc. are very good at what they do. It was the usage by the OP that I was disagreeing with.

by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2026 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure I buy that

It seems like the analysts’ jobs is less to identify the skills themselves, than figure out how to compare the skills with a wide range of players. For that, they certainly talk to scouts, but I’m not sure if it’s necessary that they themselves be able to figure out which curveball can become plus, and which only average.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 23, 2026 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

My apologies

I often use the term scout for guys like Callis. What would you call them? Talent evaluators?

by johnorpheus on Feb 21, 2026 12:59 PM EST reply actions

writers? analysts?

He is not a scout IMO.

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2026 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

An analyst

He talks to scouts, but he is definitely not a scout.

by guru4u on Feb 21, 2026 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Arenado is 18-30 spots lower here than everywhere else I have seen him

I don’t see how Olt is seen as that high considering his massive H/R splits and his finishing high A as a 23yo

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Feb 21, 2026 3:50 PM EST reply actions

Olt's home park in Myrtle Beach is notoriously pitcher friendly

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

btho Iowa State

by MonkeyEpoxy on Feb 21, 2026 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

that must be the thinking behind putting a guy who will be 24 in AA in the top 50

while posting a .325 wOBA on the road

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Feb 21, 2026 11:17 PM EST up reply actions

Home/road splits mean nothing

by Bososx13 on Feb 22, 2026 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

if this was true Corey Dickerson would be a top 100 prospect

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Feb 22, 2026 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

BA performs its annual Padres diss...

Mid-season last year, they called Robbie Erlin & Joe Wieland top 50-ish prospects. Now they’re off the lists? Clearly they sucked last year…

Gyorko dominates High-A in his first full season of pro ball and even handles AA decently then leads the AFL in BA while surprising scouts with his more-than-adequate defense at third and BA ranks him 9th among 3B - what?!? (Completely understandable to be behind: Sano, Rendon, and Arenado, but also behind - or at least not right amongst - Olt, Castellanos, Middlebrooks, Cuthbert, Cox, and Davidson - really?!?)

-peter

by PeterF on Feb 21, 2026 4:43 PM EST reply actions

Cox being above Gyorko is an absolute joke

look no further than the Oliver projections for Cox for the next 5 years. The cardinals projections are free for Oliver. Here are Cox’s projections. Negative WAR for the next 5 years. And last year he had -1.2 WAR because he didn’t hit that well and had a -16.7 fielding rating. This is based off hit location data from MLB gameday

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

Gyorko

it’s because hitting that well in the Cal League at the age of 22 is nothing special. and also, you can’t just throw out the wRC+ of 112 for +250 PA once he was promoted to AA.

i would definitely take Castellanos, Middlebrooks, and Cuthbert ahead of Gyorko due to much better ARL’s. Gyorko posted basically an identical line as Zach Cox in the same league at the same age. if you’re really upset over a 10 spot difference at the back end of a Top 100 list….then i think you don’t realize how little a 10 spot difference matters in terms of the expected value of a prospect, at the back end of a Top 100 list. a similar argument could be made for Matt Davidson, who’s only one spot ahead of Gyorko.

i actually think Olt is getting overrated a little. but i can see an argument for why he’s a better prospect than Gyorko. the patience is a lot better, and Gyorko’s overall batting line in the Cal League was over-inflated by BABIP. if you buy that, then Olt is a better prospect than Gyorko.

by blue bulldog on Feb 21, 2026 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

It was the Cal league, but Gyorko still hit for a 169 wRC+

and wRC+ is adjusted for park and league. He hit better than Cox at high A and AA. Cox is rated awfully by OLIVER and has awful defense from OLIVER. Why is he ahead of Gyorko. I might take Middlebrooks or Cuthbert above Gyorko.

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

Exactly...

I don’t have a huge problem with Gyorko being discussed among Olt, Cuthbert, and Middlebrooks, but 40 spots after them? Right behind future 1B, Davidson?

And don’t forget, it may be the CAL but Gyorko is a right-handed hitter and his home park is 425 to left-center…

-peter

by PeterF on Feb 21, 2026 7:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

based on your arguments

why isn’t Adam Eaton not a Top 50 prospect?

he’s actually younger than Gyorko, hit about the same in A+, and hit waaaaay better than Gyorko after being promoted to AA

you need to realize that what Gyorko did this past year is just not that special, especially after you factor in those 250 PA in AA

by blue bulldog on Feb 21, 2026 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Eaton v. Gyorko

Eaton didn’t play in a home park that plays larger than Petco…

But changing the subject to make a point is a logical fallacy… We weren’t talking about outfielders, we’re talking about top 100 MILB 3B… Eaton may deserve many things maybe even #1 status in a year - who knows?

-peter

by PeterF on Feb 22, 2026 6:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

it's not a logical fallacy

at least not in anyway recognized in the US. our entire legal system is based off reasoning through analogy.

the reason i bring up Eaton is because he’s basically the same age as Gyorko (Eaton is slightly younger), hit in the same Cal League, put up similarly monstrous numbers, and like Gyorko was moved to a higher league, where he actually put up better numbers than Gyorko. not only that, but you can make an argument that Eaton defensively in CF would probably have the same value as Gyorko defensively at 3B. and since CF and 3B have the same positional adjustment, you’re not looking at any extra value there for Gyorko.

what i’m trying to show you, is that hitting the way Gyorko did at his age in A+ is not special. plenty of non-Top 100 prospects do that, with the same defensive/positional ability as Gyorko.

by blue bulldog on Feb 22, 2026 6:56 PM EST up reply actions

Bit of a tangent, but on CF v. 3B

I understand that the positional adjustment is the same, but the more I’ve thought about it, the more of an issue I have with people equating the value of each merely because of positional adjustments. The truth of the matter is that 3B are a more valuable commodity because a significant portion of the people who can play CF will never be able to play 3B simply because of the hand they can throw with. If everything else were equal, I feel like you should always go with the 3B simply because there is a smaller population of baseball players that can play there.

by nixa37 on Feb 22, 2026 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

um

“The truth of the matter is that 3B are a more valuable commodity because a significant portion of the people who can play CF will never be able to play 3B simply because of the hand they can throw with.”

what if i did this

“The truth of the matter is that CF are a more valuable commodity because a significant portion of the people who can play 3B will never be able to play CF simply because they lack the range.”

i think i’d want a study with stronger evidence before just assuming that there’s a smaller population of baseball players that can play 3B as opposed to CF

by blue bulldog on Feb 22, 2026 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

I know you're smart enough to see the difference there

The entire population of professional players can play CF, even if they might not play it well. On the other hand, only players that can throw right handed can play 3B. There have been plenty of teams that have put guys out in CF who didn’t have the range to play there. How many teams have put a guy who threw left handed at 3B?

I’m not sure what is so hard to understand about this. Positional adjustments simply reflect the average difference in fielding ability as players move from one position to another. The problem is that the study only looks at guys who have actually made the move. There hasn’t been a single left handed throwing player that has moved to 3B in decades (if not a century plus). Do you not see how positional adjustments sort of breakdown in this type of case?

by nixa37 on Feb 22, 2026 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

i just don't see how the empirics can be wrong

“The entire population of professional players can play CF, even if they might not play it well.”

while this may be literally true, it doesn’t represent the effective pool of players available to play the position. teams operate at the margin. they are just looking at the difference between the 30th best CF in the game vs. the 31st best CF in the game, or whatever.

i’m not sure where the positional adjustment is breaking down either. repeating the header above somewhat, the empirics of the positional adjustment is taking into account the supply of position players there as well. how can it not? it’s empirical.

by blue bulldog on Feb 23, 2026 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

Because its based on what's happened historically

Positional adjustments are based on how position changes have effected players in terms of total zone rating over the history of the game. As far as I know, it is not at all taking into account the supply of position players at a given position. The problem is that no left handed players make the move from the OF to an IF position other than 1B, so how can you expect it to accurately reflect how a left handed thrower will make the transition? The average 3B is going to have an easier time transitioning to CF than the average left handed throwing CF is going to have moving from CF to 3B.

As far as the population thing, MLB teams have shown they are willing to guys without the range for CF in CF and take their lumps on defense. On the other hand, literally know team is willing to put a guy who throws left handed at 3B because they know it would be a disaster..

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 8:27 AM EST up reply actions

i'm sorry i still don't really get your argument

my point is if the positional adjustments are empirically determined, then they take into account the supply of position players at a given position by implication

by blue bulldog on Feb 23, 2026 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

I don't get the assumptions you make based on the word empirical

by ol Pete on Feb 23, 2026 11:39 AM EST up reply actions

No they do not

They have nothing to do with the supply of players at a given position. Why do you think they do? All they’re based on are the relative change in ability to field when switching between positions based on the average change in total zone rating for past players when they changed positions.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

I don't like the way positional adjustments are calculated either

But I don’t think we can come right out and say that just because 3Bs have to throw right-handed, they are a more valuable commodity. It could be (and I suspect it is true) that, though there are more players who could fake it in CF if every other player on the roster went down, it could still be harder to find a decent or even bad defender in CF. Maybe there are more -30 CFs than -30 3Bs (because everyone can play -30 CF and not everyone can play -30 3B) but it’s harder to find a -15 CF than a -15 3B.

And replacement level isn’t going to be about whether the last guy on the bench can fill in at the spot in an absolute emergency, it’s about what you can expect from a guy you call up to play the position. The pool of people who can theoretically play the position in a dire emergency isn’t relevant for that. What matters is who from the pool of replacement players gives the best balance of offense and defense at the position, and it’s not going to be one of those -30 CFs that you can throw out there just because he’s left-handed.

For an analogy: pitchers can throw with either hand too, and if all your pitchers go down and you need a random guy to fill in there are more players to draw from than if all your 3Bs go down. But a replacement-level pitcher is going to hit much worse than a replacement-level 3B. Even though the pool of potential pitchers is in theory larger than the pool of potential 3Bs, the vast majority of the people in the pool would be below-replacement as pitchers.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 23, 2026 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

I went through most of this elsewhere, but quick summary

1) This is what positional adjustments are all about…how defensive ability has changed on average among guys who have changed positions.

2) In the framework of positional adjustments (which is what this conversation is really about), replacement level is a purely offensive value. The difference in ability to hit among replacement level hitters is implicitly assumed to already be accounted for already in positional adjustments.

3) The problem with you analogy is it isn’t based on actual statistical research like positional adjustments. Not to mention the fact that your talking about converting hitters to pitchers which is completely unnecessary because of the huge population of pitchers. Positional players move around among positions. In general they do not move back and forth between being a positional player and a pitcher.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Im not sure the relevance

This “population” thing seems to be confusing things. You are stating a lead footed 3B could play CF and also state a lefty CF couldn’t play 3B. That is patently false. A lefty CF definitely can play 3B. Teams just won’t do it because he will be a very poor 3B. Just like teams would never have put Thome in his prime in CF.

Just as you state left handed CF don’t play the left side of the infield I don’t ever recall lead footed infielders ever playing CF except in the case of a 1 inning emergency.

by pedrophile on Feb 23, 2026 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I would rather have a left-handed 3B than a slow center fielder who gets poor reads on balls. There are only a handful of guys that are cut out for CF. How many of the top 100 OF can really play a quality CF? There are a fair amount of SS that could play CF - if they can read a ball. If left and right fielders could play center - they would. Every SS can play 3rd with some practice. Most of them would be great there. Any 2B will do fine at 3B as well, they may be a bit short on arm but they will be ok. That is nitpicking when compared to putting “some guy” in CF.

This is a weird discussion because everybody knows the defensive talent in up the middle - C, SS, CF. Those are your best defenders period. Unless you have never actually played the game or get way too wrapped up in some metrics that convince you otherwise. Defensive stats and metrics are a work in progress and may never evolve into a reliable measure of anything.

by huztler on Feb 23, 2026 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

CF aren't necessarily among your best defenders

Yes, an elite CF is generally extremely valuable, but that is for a different reason. Elite defenders in CF can save more runs than elite defenders anywhere else with exception of C. Even Ozzie Smith in his prime wasn’t saving as many runs relative to his peers as Andruw Jones did. The problem is that the same thing does not play out when we compare all the guys who have moved between the two positions. In general a strictly general sense, 3B would be just as good in CF (with an appropriate amount of practice) as they would in 3B and vice versa.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

A couple things

First of all, there aren’t exactly many lead footed 3B and the ones that are generally shouldn’t be playing there in the first place. Second, you’re misunderstanding what exactly positional adjustments represent. What they say is that the average 3B will be just as good at CF and the average CF will be just as good at 3B. The issue is that we know every single left handed CF is going to be far, far worse at 3B than he would be in CF. You can’t make the same sort of distinction among 3B. The sort of thing your talking about is something that is already being accounted for to an extent when we measure player defense at 3B. The handedness part is in no way already factored in like being slow is.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

let me see if I've got your argument right

You’re saying that, when calculating positional adjustments, we should consider how the average CF would perform at 3B and vice versa? And then we should conclude that 3B should get a higher positional adjustment because all the left-handed CFs would be really bad at playing 3B?

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 23, 2026 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure what you're trying to say

By looking at decades worth of data from all positional players about how player defense changed as they moved from position to position, it turns out that players on the whole are roughly as good at 3B as they are at CF. However, I think there is an issue in saying that because a significant portion of the guys playing CF could never play 3B because of the hand they throw with. However I’m not sure how well that has been factored in since essentially zero CF that throw with their left hand have ever made the move to 3B, so they aren’t a part of the sample on which these numbers are being based.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

I was just trying to understand your argument

And the more I think of it, the more my beef is not with what you’re saying but with the whole idea that we should derive positional adjustments by comparing how well players who switch positions do at those positions. Which isn’t your fault — that’s how the WAR stats we use do derive those positions. But I agree with Colin Wyers that it’s a bad way to do it.

Here’s how I think of it: What WAR is trying to count is how many extra wins a player provides over a freely available replacement player. But freely available replacement players aren’t generic; you could replace a guy with the guy who’s playing CF for you in the minors or the guy who’s playing 3B for you. The replacement should be whichever of those guys gives you the most runs on offense and saves the most runs on defense — at the position of the player you’re replacing.

Now, if you’re replacing your LF, the replacement could be someone who’s playing CF, or LF, or RF; the skill sets are similar enough that the guy who gives you the most runs at LF could be playing any one of those positions already. But I’m pretty sure that if you’re replacing your 3B, the replacement isn’t going to be someone who’s playing CF in the minors, or vice versa. The skill sets are different enough that your minor-league 3B is going to give you fewer runs on offense + runs saved in CF than your minor-league CF, even if he’s a better hitter and better 3B defender than your minor-league CF would be.

That means that the 3B and CF pools are pretty much disjoint, and it doesn’t make sense to try to make positional adjustments by comparing how well each player would do if they shifted positions. Most CFs would do worse if they shifted to 3B, and most 3Bs would do worse if they shifted to CF. (As opposed to CF-LF and 3B-1B, where players can easily shift one way but not the other.) Have there been a whole lot of players who switch between 3B and CF? I’m pretty sure Andrew McCutchen (who’s right-handed) would be bad at 3B if he played there; does that mean your average 3B could play CF as well as he does?

That’s what I was trying to get at with the analogy with pitching; if the pools of available players are disjoint enough, it doesn’t really matter if one position is available to RH and LH players and the other position is available only to RH players. But I’ve gone on long enough, and anyway as I’ve said my problem isn’t with the argument you’re making but with the whole fundamental way of calculating positional adjustments that people use.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 23, 2026 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

Just to be clear

When I said “I’m not sure what you were you’re trying to say,” I simply meant I didn’t understand from your post what you thought my argument was. That’s why I went ahead and just tried to explain it again from the start.

I think the positional adjustment model is good as long you understand its limitations. Its really just meant to be the roughest of guides in terms of overall defensive value when its combined with a specific run saved defensive stat like TZ or DRS or UZR.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

OK

OTOH, if what we want is a rough guide I don’t think the handedness would make enough of a difference to matter.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 23, 2026 8:30 PM EST up reply actions

Like I said from the get go

If everything else is equal, you should go with the 3B as the tiebreaker. My arguments about positional adjustments were meant to be more theoretical and were initially directed at a poster I know is very into stats like that.

by nixa37 on Feb 23, 2026 8:50 PM EST up reply actions

Whose experience

are the “empirical” positional adjustments based on?

by ol Pete on Feb 23, 2026 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

again

nobody really takes that Cal League number seriously, unless the player is young for his level, or he shows that he can sustain that at the upper levels. it’s just like last year, when Goldschmidt rocked the Cal League. nobody took him seriously until this year when he also rocked AA.

i’m sorry, but if you are complaining about a ten spot difference between Gyorko and Cox, then you don’t really understand the relative values of rankings in a Top 100 list. a ten spot difference at the back-end of a Top 100 list, just means that the ranker would be probably be 55% confident that the #88 prospect is better than the #98 prospect. in other words, they recognize that there’s probably a 45% chance that the #98 prospect turns out better.

how is there anything egregiously wrong with thinking that Cox has around a 55% better chance than Gyorko at being more valuable, when Cox posted basically the exact same hitting line at AA (wRC+ of 110 vs. wRC+ of 112) while being 6 months younger? not to mention Cox’s better draft pedigree?

you need to seriously be less extreme in your views. for someone who clearly knows a lot about sabermetrics, i feel like you’re completely missing one of the basic lessons of sabermetrics, in that there are very few absolute outcomes in baseball. everything can be modeled as a probabilistic event. the title of the #88 best prospect in baseball is not meant to indicate that he is guaranteed to have a better career than the #98 best prospect in baseball. it’s simply meant to indicate he has a higher probability of having a better career. the greater the difference, is an indicator of how great the confidence is on that prediction. for instance, BA is extremely confident that Harper/Moore/Trout will end up with a better career than Gyorko. they are much less confident that either Cox or Davidson will have a better career than Gyorko.

by blue bulldog on Feb 21, 2026 7:28 PM EST up reply actions

No...

Cox shouldn’t be a top 100 guy…

Sorry if I wasn’t clear. Gyorko deserves to be ranked among Olt, Middlebrooks, and Cuthbert. He is THAT good. And you’re wrong, people do take CAL stats seriously. As for pedigree, Gyorko was a guy who had a 1st round hitting skill-set but everyone knew he couldn’t play SS and figured he probably also could not play 2B. The Padres worked him out at 3B and drafted him as such. Everyone knew he could hit. His pedigree is fine and he’s a lot better than Cox, Castellanos, and Davidson.

-peter

by PeterF on Feb 21, 2026 7:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

This

I use a simple rule of thumb…whatever the ranking, take the square root and use that as plus/minus for how man spots you could move the player and it’s more or less the same.

So for a player ranked 25, the root is 5, so he could probably be pretty much anywhere from 20-30 on the list without there being a big difference - basically in the eye of the analyst

For a player ranked 100, it would be roughly 20 spots between 90 and 110

Again, rule of thumb, not some hard rule.

by MjwW on Feb 21, 2026 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

That's a great way to look at it.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Feb 22, 2026 12:52 AM EST up reply actions

that's a pretty nice rule of thumb

seems to capture the effect of decreasing marginal value well, at least on face

you should trademark it :)

by blue bulldog on Feb 22, 2026 1:44 AM EST up reply actions

Yep

That’s the idea - as you go down, the differences between players are smaller, so you want the range wider. I use the similar principles to estimate farm system rankings (planning on writing something up when John publishes this top 100 in Friday, it’s really the last piece).

by MjwW on Feb 22, 2026 2:44 AM EST up reply actions

Based on your rule Harper could conceivably go UP one spot!

If he hears of this I’m sure it will be a boost for his fragile ego.

by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2026 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

Ok fess up

who voted for Darvish?

by Bososx13 on Feb 21, 2026 5:15 PM EST reply actions

Jon Daniels

by MjwW on Feb 21, 2026 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

Playing the Devil's advocate

Quoting the sub-headline in this Baseball America article (behind the paywall) that looks at the top 3 prospects from various years, “Generally two of three make it, one falters.”

Point being, there is still attrition in the top 3. Considering how much safer Darvish is than the other three (arguably) and considering he still has a substantial ceiling, I don’t see it impossible to defend him at #1.

That’s all I got.

Twitter
Buried Treasure - #5 Prospect Josh Bell
Buried Treasure - The New CBA, the MLB Draft, and Hope

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2026 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

How he has a higher floor is baffling to me.

by mr. maniac on Feb 21, 2026 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

ummm

Dice K, even as strange as his career has been, would be considered to be a player that still had a relatively high floor. If Darvish’s floor is expected to be above his, then the argument that he does not have a high floor loses steam.

What is Harper’s floor? Moore’s? Trouts?

JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes;!"- RCCook

LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"

by laxtonto on Feb 21, 2026 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

Harper hasn't faced much advanced pitching so I consider his floor fairly low

Until we see how he fares. It’s not that Harper has flaws or has no flaws, it’s that we just don’t know. There is a higher level of uncertainty. Of course it looks like the hype machine has blown past those little distractions just like it did with Delmon Young and others.

by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2026 9:14 AM EST up reply actions

Darvish hasn't faced many true power hitters

Can’t you argue his floor is lower until we see how he fairs? Hell, he hasn’t even regularly pitched on 5 days rest yet, shouldn’t we wait to see how he fairs until we consider his floor to be that high?

Compare Delmon to Bryce for a second. Harper posted significantly better numbers in the same league at the same age, and while AA pitchers were starting to expose Delmon’s problem with patience as a 19 year old, Bryce posted incredibly impressive K:BB numbers at the same level as an 18 year old. Harper is on a completely different level than a guy like Young IMO.

by nixa37 on Feb 22, 2026 9:53 AM EST up reply actions

he is a pitcher so the competition is less important

typically by seeing the quality of stuff we get a fairly good idea for pitchers. The 5 days of rest is a valid point though.

Harper is far better than Young, I agree. My point was more about how higher levels of competition may show flaws that might not be evident. This isn’t to say Harper has these flaws, but until we see him play at higher levels there should be a higher level of risk.

IMO Harper does have a lower floor than Darvish but I would take Harper over Darvish and it would be a no-brainer.

by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2026 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

Definitely true on the level of competition for a pitcher compared to hitters

Though I do think that facing fewer power hitters can hide issues that pitcher will have in the future with the HR ball.

by nixa37 on Feb 22, 2026 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

it definitely can hide things especially on the statistical side

many are assuming that since his numbers are better than Dice-K he will be so much better. I’m not sure his stuff is that much better than Dice-K, who is a solid pitcher in his own right.

by pedrophile on Feb 23, 2026 12:16 AM EST up reply actions

That is horrible logic.

The fact is that none of these players have played significant time in MLB. In fact, Moore and Trout have the edge over Darvish there.

Moore has also played in AAA, which is similar or better competition than Japan.

To say that a guy who has never pitched in MLB has a higher floor than a guy with a tiny amount of experience (and successful) in MLB with tons of success in the highest levels of pro ball is odd, especially since Moore is considered to be a better pitcher with a higher upside.

by mr. maniac on Feb 22, 2026 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

I notice you never mentioned Harper

by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2026 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

"Considering how much safer Darvish is than the other three "

I never argued Harper has a higher floor, although I personally feel he does.

by mr. maniac on Feb 22, 2026 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

same

by daveh33 on Feb 22, 2026 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

There is zero chance...

that Darvish completely flops this season. His arm may fall off but he will be successful if he is healthy. The same can’t be said of those other guys. You can knock his lack of MLB experience all you like but it is a mistake. There is a big difference between what Darvish is and what Trout/Moore/Harper are. Darvish is every bit if not the more the proven quantity that Ichiro was. He is not Dice-K. History is littered with guys that flopped after being billed as the next big thing.

by huztler on Feb 23, 2026 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

Claiming that your opinion is the truth is a bit ridiculous, especially when you say there is a zero percent chance he flops.

by mr. maniac on Feb 23, 2026 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

zero I say!!

Twitter
Buried Treasure - #4 Prospect Luis Heredia
Buried Treasure - Reaction: Ryan Braun Wins his Appeal

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 24, 2026 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Always vote the international as #1

much less variation, more likely to have instant impact… I love Harper, Moore and Trout, but their youth is a major detractor at this point…

It might be that I value floor as well as ceiling. There has to be some concerns over the potential variance in their early parts of their careers..

Which of those 4 will be the most valuable over their initial deals? Since acquisition cost is no longer a factor, then the only criteria is going to be value of their play over their first deal. At this point the older player should exceed the younger players just due to physical maturity. The bust rate of high level young prospects is pretty high.. think about how many can’t miss kids that have came up in the last decade. These three might be different, but when you combine that with Darvish’s advanced age and level of competition and it is hard not to pick him.

JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes;!"- RCCook

LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"

by laxtonto on Feb 21, 2026 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

Did you watch Moore pitch? Youth will not be a detractor In his case.

by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2026 9:06 AM EST up reply actions

Love the breakdown...

they provided to accompany the top 100. I have no data whatsoever on this, but I’m guessing only 2 top-100 prospects from Venezuela must be the lowest number in the past several years.

by slamcactus on Feb 21, 2026 9:43 PM EST reply actions

Javier Baez and the Gary Sheffield comps...

How soon is this guy a top 10 prospect in the game?

by SenorGato on Feb 22, 2026 1:14 AM EST reply actions

Continued power development

Would push him into the top 25. He’s got top 10 potential but not a very likely chance of reaching it.

by 2883 on Feb 22, 2026 1:21 AM EST up reply actions

How old do you think Baez actually is?

MLB is a mess right now in terms of how widespread the identity fraud actually is in my opinion. I saw the comment on how this year’s top 100 is lighter on international players and it seems like fewer and fewer guys (especially the big money guys) are making it through. There are always exceptions and clearly there are Latin/South American guys that can play, but I think BA is starting to wait it out and not put in the 16-18 yr old Intl phenoms until they do something above A ball. As long as there are millions of dollars at stake for these players/agents to claim to be 2 to 4 years younger than they actually are I don’t see this issue going away anytime soon and from what I’ve heard, MLB really has no good way to police it. I wonder if that is what is keeping BA from ranking some of these guys?

by Leather Larceny on Feb 22, 2026 8:59 AM EST up reply actions

Baez was drafted out of high school in florida

by philadelphiacub on Feb 22, 2026 9:23 AM EST up reply actions

But originally from Puerto Rico

by Leather Larceny on Feb 22, 2026 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico is a US territory and has been for a long time. IDs there should be as credible as any in the US.

by rlwhite on Feb 22, 2026 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs

yeah...thats one of the crazier things ive seen on here....

which is saying something….we’re questioning the age of americans now?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 22, 2026 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

well, some people are still waiting to see Obamas birth certificate

by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2026 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

lol

Twitter
Buried Treasure - #5 Prospect Josh Bell
Buried Treasure - The New CBA, the MLB Draft, and Hope

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 23, 2026 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

To be fair, a lot of people have questions about Pujols age.

His situation is virtually identical to Baez’s.

by PissedMick on Feb 22, 2026 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

Well, except he came from DR rather than PR, of course.

Both were high schoolers in the US.

by PissedMick on Feb 22, 2026 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

which makes the situation not identical at all

by cookiedabookie on Feb 22, 2026 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

right

see Danny Almonte, for example….I’ve never heard of anything remotely similar occurring in Puerto Rico, though I’d be interested if there have been

by PrincetonCubs on Feb 22, 2026 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

this

same story with Lindor, both moved to FL from Puerto Rico when they were around 12 I think. (I’m pretty sure LL was just confused about how Baez was signed.)

by PrincetonCubs on Feb 22, 2026 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

I would like to see an actual of list of players who were found to be older than they said by country.

It seems to me that list would be 98% DR, but I’d like to see actual names and details.

So what i’m saying is, unless a player is from DR, lets not even go there with the “Is he lying about his age?” thing. I’m pretty sure its racist to lump in a bunch of completely different countries in as being one in the same, especially when the issue here is lying.

by Waiver Claim on Feb 23, 2026 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

it has happened in Venezuela and other countries

It is a fact that age and ID falsification is very easily done south of the border. This is not racism IMO.

by pedrophile on Feb 23, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

i dont think his swing is that great

by daveh33 on Feb 22, 2026 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

completely agree

Reading a scouting report where it says “Best hitter in the draft class” is one thing but it doesn’t look pretty in the video I have seen. He seems to be dead pull and some reports hint at that as well along with makeup problems. 5 minutes of video do not amount to a whole lot but he certainly has bust potential.

by huztler on Feb 23, 2026 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

BA ranked the Astros farm system 17th

That is a lot higher than we’ve seen from this community or from guys like Keith Law. I’m not entirely surprised about that—they’ve always been high on Singleton, Cosart, and Villar, and tools guys in general.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Feb 22, 2026 6:11 AM EST reply actions

While 17 may be a tad aggressive for me

I do think they clearly have a better farm system than many people have given them credit for.

by nixa37 on Feb 22, 2026 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

There is a lot of upside

In the system. Lots of guys with very low floors though as well.

by auclairkeithbc on Feb 22, 2026 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

ohh i'd agree, i have them 21st in my overall rankings.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 23, 2026 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

These "write ups" leave a lot to be desired.

I know its hard to sum up a prospect in 15-30 words, but most of these are almost mocking the reader. This has been the least fun list to go through.

I mean, sure, why not bring up something that happened 15 years ago to another player when talking about Cespedes, who has absolutely nothing in common other than being the same nationality?

I’m disappointed in myself that I was suckered into reading all these.

by Waiver Claim on Feb 23, 2026 10:58 AM EST reply actions

they were meant to be joke write-ups

they already have long, three paragraph write-ups on every single one of these prospects in their Team Top 10 rankings page

by blue bulldog on Feb 23, 2026 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

the jokes weren't funny

by Waiver Claim on Feb 23, 2026 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

Consider the source

John Manuel isn’t exactly the second coming of Lenny Bruce. I think you’re being a little harsh though - god forbid that one of these analysts attempt to inject a lighthearted tone to something as important as analyzing prospects with rookie eligibility..

by Matt0330 on Feb 23, 2026 11:42 AM EST up reply actions