Budgeting for Latin American Prospects

most of these guys are high risk/high reward toolsy sort of players anyway. Tough question though

when the Red Sox spent big money on top prospects (Almanzar,Perez,Ibarra) They didn’t work out. Vinicio could work out but he’s only in the GCL. When they spread the money out, they got Bogaerts, a stud

Similar to what Baseball cube has for draftees?

Carlos Martinez and Miguel Sano. Enough said. You always go for gold if you got a guy who has a chance to be a star. I’d rather get one star for $2 million than 10 guys who have the ceiling of a regular or are so far away they’ll take 5-6 years to develop.

However, in the end, it all comes down to scouting. Pay what it takes to get your guy, whether he’s a big name or not. Sure, if you are high on a guy and can get him for a couple hundred k ‘cause no one else is in on him, lucky you. But don’t just sign a bunch of scrubs hoping one of them can turn into something special.

because the bust rates are much higher than the draft

I wouldn’t use the rest of the money to fill in holes. I’d spread it out on the best players I could sign for the remaining money. The quantity would change from year to year. IMO, always take best available player, regardless of the makeup of your minor league rosters. Most likely it all sorts itself out, and for any resulting holes, you can draft, sign minor league free agents and trade.

We are always seeing players who sign for a reasonably low amount and end up being really good. If you had to pick one, I’d go for the larger number of players. Too many chances for injury or just players who don’t develop.

I’ll be intrigued to see what the top bonuses will be with new CBA. A team that wants to pay a kid over $1 million will be busting their whole budget (or most of it). I would think most teams would go with this strategy.

But it’s still not enough for me to justify going all in on one player. After all, the biggest bonus ever still belongs to the now-infamous Michael Ynoa. Past him on the list are some very legitimate prospects- Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Yorman Rodriguez, Jesus Montero, Jurickson Profar and Cheslor Cuthbert. There are also some ex-top prospect busts- Joel Guzman, Angel Villalona, Carlos Triunfel, Fernando Martinez and company. Between them all there is but one legitimate Major League Player, albeit one of the best around, Miguel Cabrera. I’m not totally sure what I’m getting at, but the point is the success rate is pretty small with these guys, so hedging your bets with several players you see something in would be my strategy.

I’d stick to advanced young arms unless an Alexei Ramirez or Cespedes came along (major league ready).

Too tough to forecast teenage hitters. Arms are easier to project at that age.

tough question to answer if you don’t know just how good that one player is, what position he plays, what tools he has, body type, projection etc…

Most likely though I would prefer to spread it out because these guys are crapshoot because they are so young and projectile, you have no idea how they will turn around so might as well just get a bunch of them and hope one of them work out.

but if I came away really really impressed and the scouts all raved about him and loved his tools and stuff then I would probably go with that one player.

to basically sum my answer: it depends.

Great question though because I can see half the teams spending big on a consensus “better prospect”

Each year, in conjunction with their scouts, a team should place a value on each player and attempt to sign them in such a way as to maximize their value.
If most teams went with the “spread the wealth” plan, the quality of that pool of players would be greatly diminished. If most teams try to go with “big ticket” signings, the bonuses would be inflated, lessening value.
Teams have to be fluid - they know the kids they want, but there are 29 other teams that may be targeting those players also. Deciding beforehand to only target one group or the other would limit a teams opportunities for signing players for the best value.

but without any research on signing bonuses and results it’s just pure speculation. Names like M.Sano are bandied about but then again Mariano Rivera signed for a very small bonus. Neither proves a point.

If I was to guess I would spread it out since they are 16 and very unpredictable. But I would rather get solid data and see what method has had more success. Offhand - the Yankees have had a lot of success without breaking bank.

If it a team like the Mariners with Bob Engle, they have that long standing relationship that not only allows them an in with the big players but also helps them receive tips on lesser known quality players, Pineda is a prime example. From that view point a balanced budget would be expected, with possibly more of a spread of monies.

For teams that haven’t been big players on the IFA market I think we will see more money thrown at the more known players as they do not have those connections.

when you can pay 400k to get Xander Bogaerts and 150k for Felix Doubront, it’s just dumb to go for the big signings

what the draft did to Puerto Rico. I do not like it at all.

If a team has an in for a big time player they have to think about it. Another thing to consider is the new constraints by the CBA. I think you will see a greater amount of spreading the money around and there will be nothing the agents/players can really do about it. I’m sure the Sanos of the world will still get paid but not as much as before.

They’re 16-year-olds. Nobody can tell what they’ll become. The Mariners are a great case in point. They’ve given 7 figures to a kid from Latin America every year since 2006 (and possibly beyond, but reporting on bonuses was not very good prior to that year). To-date, though all of those guys are still in the system, none of them have panned out, and the two hottest commodities the system has produced signed for $40,000 (Michael Pineda), and $115,000 (Jose Campos).

Of course, there are also successes with high dollar signings. Felix Hernandez, Julio Teheran, and Francisco Liriano come immediately to mind.

The answer, as it usual, is to take it case by case and trust your scouts. Bonuses are going to go WAY down for international kids under the new CBA. Teams shouldn’t be afraid to pop talented kids in the mid to high 6-figures, but the days of multiple million dollar signings should be gone, and teams are going to have to rely more than ever on pounding the pavement and making sure they’re really getting good looks at these kids in game situations (especially the position players.

In a normal year I’d spread it out because it’s a total crapshoot and there are so many stories of these 50K and under prospects making it. However if that special player is available(Montero, Teheran, Sano) than spend away that year.

and sign a few VERY LOW 6 figure guys and fill out roster with 4 and 5 figure guys. It’s ridiculous how much they’ve ransacked the Int’l budget to sign guys out of the draft. So much so only one Latin American appears in their top 20.