A Quick Question

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Apr 22, 2025 1:55 AM EDT Comment 25 comments

I am in a keeper league with minor league prospects. My prospects now include:

1. Pedor Alvarez

2. Martin Perez

3. Mike Montgomery

4. Aaron Hicks

5. Logan Morrison

6. Tim Beckham

7. Wil Meyers

8. Chris Withrow

Now, my question is this: Seeing that Aaron Hicks has been, well, sucking it up and Withrow hasn't pitched well, who should I pick up? I know you don't know who's available, but think pretty much everyone after #50 in last year's consensus top-100. Should I keep Hicks? Should I get Hosmer? Ethan Martin?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

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your team

considering the minor-league season started just two weeks ago, i would probably stick with what you have. it’s a VERY small sample size. i know that if you were in my league and you were giving up on those guys this soon i would be all over you about a trade. you’re trading/dropping these guys at their lowest possible value, which is never a good idea. at least wait until they recover and then trade then. but cutting them makes no sense, not this early in the season

by psugator on Apr 22, 2025 8:52 AM EDT reply actions

+1

I don’t see the need to make any changes right now. Seems like any moves would downgrade your roster right now.

by guru4u on Apr 22, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't be too worried about Hicks

The strikeouts are a little concerning, but the patience is still there (7 BB) and he has the ability to be one of the best players in the game.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 22, 2025 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

I would honestly drop Logan Morrison for him

Look, Morrison is never going to be a top tier 1st baseman. He simply doesn’t project to have that power. In fantasy, you wanna go with upside with prospects. What good does a league average regular do?

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Apr 22, 2025 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

And by Him, I meant Hosmer

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Apr 22, 2025 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

No need to hold on to the guy with a ceiling of 14th best 1B.

Morrison has an inside out/line drive swing with little power in it, a huge platoon split, and he’s unathletic and slow.

Since the entire world seems to be confusing him for an elite 1B, you should still see if you can trade him for big league help and pick up Hosmer to fill in the minor league spot.

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by alskor on Apr 22, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that Morrison's skills will translate better to the real game than fantasy

He projects as a doubles machine with a high OBP, sort of in the Nick Johnson/Lyle Overbay mold. And I mean, Johnson was a 5 WAR player at his peak, and I think that Morrison has a similar ceiling.

Obviously, you’d rather see a 1B prospect with Hosmer’s kind of raw power though.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 22, 2025 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm talking about fantasy above...

…but I’m much lower on Morrison than most even IRL.

Rather than repeat myself (as much as I enjoy that), I’ll just repost my Morrison comment from the website:

Al Skorupa: I’m not a big fan of Morrison. He’s a good prospect, clearly. His hit tool is great and his approach is impeccable. If he played any other position on the diamond I would like him a lot more. For a 1B prospect, I just don’t think its clear he will be or can be anything more than an average player with his limitations. He has a line drive, inside-out swing that doesn’t generate much power. Even though he’s huge he just doesn’t project for many HRs with his swing plane. He’s unathletic and slow. He also has major platoon problems and is basically a slap hitter against LHPs (.228/.336/.326).

To rank him even this high I’d have to be damn sure he was going to hit .300+/.400/.xxx. I’m not and I have him lower - that’s what is dragging him down this far, so blame me. I really think he’s much more of a good prospect than a great one. Not much about him tells me “elite first base prospect,” yet that’s where I’m seeing him ranked elsewhere.

http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=102:2010-top-100-47-logan-morrison&catid=1:2010writeups&Itemid=5

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by alskor on Apr 22, 2025 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Way off base

I’ve heard you reference that “inside out swing” a couple times now. Go back and actually look at video. It sure doesn’t look like an inside-out swing to me.

Morrison seems vastly underrated by quite a few in this community. He has 30 HR power potential. I am not convinced that Smoak has all that much higher of a ceiling quite honestly. The platoon split is scary, and I do think he gets an inside-out swing against lefties. Morrison does hit for power against righties though, and platoon splits are normal for kids his age.

by guru4u on Apr 22, 2025 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I've watched it plenty

His swing generates no loft or backspin.

Here’s a slow mo version. Its an awful swing for a 1B IMO. YMMV.

http://www.prospecttube.com/video/logan-morrison

More: http://www.prospecttube.com/video/logan-morrison-arizona-fall

No way in hell is that a 30 HR swing. He’s not even in Smoak’s neighborhood.

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Plus, concerns about a platoon split for Smoak are way overblown. They're a joke.

I would be shocked if Smoak has a platoon split in the majors long term. He’s a switch hitter who was advanced quickly to AAA less than a year after being drafted and had a obligue injury on that side. There is virtually no reason to think he will have a platoon split. Morrison has 1657 PAs of suckiness against LHPs as a pro.

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess my post was a bit misleading

I was not referencing Smoak’s platoon split. I was talking about Morrison’s.

That being said - and talking strictly for fantasy here - Smoak’s ceiling is VERY comparable to Morrison’s. Both have incredibly high on-base ability, and both have questions about power. Neither one is going to hit 40+ HRs, but both could hit 30. The only separator is Morrison’s questionable ability to hit lefties. But again, plenty of studies suggest that this is the last thing to come for left-handed hitting prospects.

I still think Morrison ran over your dog at some point with the spew of hatred I read from you every time someone mentions him.

by guru4u on Apr 23, 2025 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

both have questions about power

There shouldn’t be any questions about Smoak’s power IMO. The difference between the two is a scouting based one. I think Morrison is half the prospect Justin Smoak is.

I still think Morrison ran over your dog at some point with the spew of hatred I read from you every time someone mentions him.

Its not “hatred.” He seems like a really nice, cool guy. I just can’t understand how people get so excited about him. Mystifiies me. I’ve been saying for a long time that I think Morrison, Vitters and Bumgarner are three ridiculously overrated prospects. They all have major flaws in their games (Power & Platoon, Patience, Secondary Stuff) that people seem to completely ignore because they liked how their untranslated, out of context minor league statistics looked.

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Scouting Based?

Are you sure about that? Scouts seem pretty mixed on Morrison’s power ceiling. Most see him getting there, but a few don’t (which I think is why KG rated him so low). They all agree that Smoak will never be a 550+ SLG guy.

You have a valid argument on platoon (which is why Smoak is ahead of Morrison on my personal list). The rest of the argument is crap though.

by guru4u on Apr 23, 2025 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

They all agree that Smoak will never be a 550+ SLG guy.

Where the hell are you getting this from?

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

& I understand some scouts love Morrison

I think they’re wrong - that’s what I’ve been saying. I used “scouting based” to differentiate from a “stats based” argument. Such as you’re using to question Smoak’s power.

Scouts love when a guy has a great approach and hit tool - like Morrison. Its the same thing with Vitters. This is how scouts end up overrating players IMO. They fall in love with the kid’s feel for hitting an ignore major weaknesses in his game.

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Check out the last swing

Nothing “inside-out” about it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtpWXR5l4EQ

by guru4u on Apr 23, 2025 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Check out the swing plane.

He’s not hitting 30. Maybe over 2 seasons.

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Besides

“Loft and backspin” is a completely difference concept than “inside-out”. Ichiro has an inside-out swing. He is constantly trying to take all balls to the opposite field.

Loft and backspin is more swing plane driven. Smoak has the same issue. They both have line drive swings with level swing planes.

by guru4u on Apr 23, 2025 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Smoak does not have a line drive swing.

Smoak loads and finishes up. There’s tons of video of him out there… take a look at this, though:

http://www.prospecttube.com/video/justin-smoak-slow-motion

That’s how a man swings. Power will not be an issue for Justin Smoak.

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

http://www.prospecttube.com/main/search/search?q=smoak

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by alskor on Apr 23, 2025 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

14th best 1B

I don’t fundamentally disagree that there is some uncertainty about Morrison, but depending on the depth of your league, the 14th best 1B is definitely a fantasy factor. Just looking at my Yahoo draft (12 team, 5 × 5) the 14th 1B off the board went in the 6th round.

I’m a high ceiling guy myself and would have to think hard about dropping Logan for Hosmer, but I guess I just wanted to suggest that the 14th best 1B isn’t really without value. Again, depends on the depth of your league.

by FI2 on Apr 22, 2025 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions