I wrote this up at Bullpen Banter today but wanted to post it here for thoughts and comments.  It's a long article but I'll go ahead and post the whole thing here so you have the proper context.  

 

I'm an avid fantasy player, participating in a total of nine leagues this year.  I shy away from single season leagues, preferring keeper  and dynasty leagues for the both the continuity of the other owners and for the chance to build my team long term.  Some of the leagues I play in I have been in since day one, some are ones I was asked to join to take over a neglected team with the challenge of rebuilding it.  I also run two leagues of my own, one a 14 team keeper league that is converting to a dynasty format over a five year period and also a 17 team dynasty league.  Both of the leagues I run are roto leagues.  Over the last four to five years that I've seriously played fantasy baseball I've decided I prefer the roto format for dynasty leagues since you're more committed to most of your roster, as opposed to a head to head league where you need less attachment to make more add/drops as the season goes on.

With the exception of one league, minor league or farm systems are a part of the leagues I play, though to varying degrees depending on the league.  Some are more shallow when it comes to prospects, some are much deeper.  It's the deeper leagues that I wanted to dive into today and share the prospects I  have "invested in" this year and why I've done so.  With the drafts done for those leagues, now is as good a time as any to do so.  Both leagues I'm going to discuss are the leagues I run.  The keeper league has no cap on the number of prospects you can have in your system at a given time, though there are rules as to how many you can keep and how long you can keep them.  The dynasty league has a 25 roster spots for the minors maximum.  I'll start off with the keeper league and my farm system prior to the draft:

 

 

Andrew Cashner

Brett Lawrie

Lars Anderson

Jemile Weeks

Jeremy Jeffress

Michael Bowden

Tim Alderson

Nick Hagadone

Chris Carter

Reid Brignac

Michael Pineda

Carlos Santana

Dan Duffy :(

Jefry Marte

JC Ramirez

Carlos Rivero

 

Alderson, Brignac, Hagadone, and Carter will all have to be added to my MLB keeper list after this season or traded prior to the keeper deadline, otherwise I lose them for nothing.  Carter and Brignac are locks to join my keeper list-both may end up on my roster during the season as well.  Hagadone I'm hoping either forces me to keep him by posting a great and healthy year or builds enough value to land me something good in trade, Alderson is in the same situation though to a lesser degree.

I had the 2nd pick in the draft this year(snakes each round) and five picks total.  Here is who I ended up with:

#2 Tyler Matzek-I debated Casey Crosby and Jacob Turner at this spot as well, wanting to add a TOR type arm to my system.  I went with Matzek because I think his upside is just the slightest bit higher than the other two and in fantasy I'm less concerned with safety and floor than I am with real life.  Matzek is a player I invested heavily in this year, taking him in three out of four leagues he was available in with three leagues yet to draft prospects.

#25 Arodys Vizcaino-Another high ceiling arm here.  I definitely believe in the theory you can never have enough pitching, if nothing else they make great trade chips to fill holes elsewhere.  I definitely think there is ace potential here, and he's very young.  With the progression to a dynasty format the more of these type arms I can add, the better off I think I'll be long term.

#28 Jay Jackson-Another pitcher, but a different type.  I'm very bullish on Jackson both in real life and fantasy.  I think he has #2 upside but could also end up as a strong late inning arm.  After taking two high upside arms that are years away I wanted a safer pick but one that still had good potential to pay dividends.

#36 Aaron Miller-I expect big things from Aaron Miller, he just missed my Top 100 prospect list and could really break out this year.  I took him a bit higher than I had him on my board, but I really wanted him and there is a big time Dodgers fan in my league that had another pick between here and my final selection so I went with Miller to ensure I got him.  Great velocity to go with a strong slider means that worst case Miller should be a great late inning arm but I think there is #2 upside here at least.  I also figure if he breaks out I have a willing trade partner waiting in the Dodgers fan, so I could leverage a good year by Miller into a filling a bigger need.

#54 Christian Bethancourt-Final pick, wanted a high ceiling hitter after all those pitchers.  Bethancourt seems like a solid bet to stick at a valuable position and displayed good plate discipline at a very young, important since we count OBP in this league.  I do have Iannetta at the MLB level and Carlos Santana in my farm system already, but Bethancourt is still a long way off.  I just really like the potential in his bat and the likely catcher eligibility is a bonus selling point should I decide to trade him later.  Like the Miller pick, there is a big time Braves fan in this as well, so I feel pretty confident if Bethancourt develops as I expect I shouldn't have any trouble trading him if I need to fill in other areas.

Overall I love the group of prospects I was able to land this year.  Plenty of upside here, which meshes well with some of the safer talent I already have in my system.  I've added to what I think was a pretty solid amount of pitching talent already on hand and Bethancourt is a potential impact bat, something I might be lacking a bit once Carter and Santana are on my MLB roster(though I still have high hopes for Rivero and Marte).  

 

Moving on to my dynasty league, here are the prospects in my system prior to the draft:

 

Freddie Freeman

Matt Moore

Brett Lawrie

Neil Ramirez

Cole Gillespie

Aaron Cunningham

Chris Valaika

Ryan Tucker

Will Venable(has been added to MLB roster)

Jess Todd

Matt Maloney

Drew Cumberland

James McDonald

Justin Maxwell

Dan Dorn

Kyle Lotzkar

Jay Jackson(part of a trade to land Jayson Werth)

 

Coming into the draft, I had no 1st or 2nd round pick, having traded them during last year's draft for the picks that landed me Matt Moore and Brett Lawrie.  I gambled that my team would do well enough the picks I traded away wouldn't be near the top of the draft causing me regret, the gamble paid off as I won the league.  The day the draft started I made a trade to land the #2 overall pick and a 5th round pick in 2011 for my 1st and 2nd round picks in 2011 and a third round pick this year.  We're adding a first year player draft this fall since Yahoo has become so aggressive in adding prospects at the start of the year, so my 2011 picks don't hold nearly as much value as they would have in previous years.  I had seven other picks in the draft and added two more additional picks because there were so many names still available that I really liked.  Here is who I ended up with:

#2 Tyler Matzek-Matzek is the reason I made the trade to move up to this spot.  My highest pick coming into the draft was #36 overall, so when the #2 pick was put on the market I jumped at the chance to make a move.  To win the league last year, I made quite a few trades sending away prospects(Chris Carter, Trevor Cahill, Brian Matusz, Michael Taylor, Nick Barnese).  While I really like the top end talent I still had, I wanted a chance an impact player, and Matzek was the guy I wanted.  I have Greinke, Hamels, Scherzer, Brett Anderson, and Francisco Liriano at the MLB level so I can wait a few years on another TOR starter like Matzek.

#45 Danny Espinosa-I have Robinson Cano, Gordon Beckham, and Hanley Ramirez on my MLB roster at the positions Espinosa is mostly likely to play, but both 2B and SS are positions that can be hard to fill.  This league is also a salary cap league and by the time Espinosa is ready to contribute both Cano and HanRam are going to be very costly.  Having a cheap alternative is a nice thing in my opinion.  That said, I'm a big fan of what Espinosa brings to the table.  This league counts OBP and SLG along with the five standard categories, so while I don't know that he'll ever hit for much average his strong OBP skills and good power make him more valuable here than in standard leagues.  I can see Espinosa being a big positive in 6 out of 7 categories at a valuable position, something that I can either use myself or leverage to fill other needs down the road.

#46 Adrian Salcedo-I had a small scare about 20 picks before this when one guy in the league told me he was taking "that Salcedo kid".  Luckily he was talking about the Braves hitter, not the Twins pitcher I wanted.  Salcedo tore up the GCL at age 18 and has very advanced secondary stuff for someone so young.  Besides the standard stat categories we count K/BB ratio so the great control and high K rates Adrian showed last year are big positives along with his stuff.  The Twins organization is great at developing pitchers, and the sky is the limit with this kid.  I can see #1/2 type upside here and like with Matzek I have enough pitching to wait a few years to see a return on investment.

#59 John Lamb-After the big three of Montgomery/Crow/Melville, I think it's a tossup between Lamb and Noel Arguelles for the next best pitcher in the Royals system.  Lamb has good secondary stuff for his age and good velocity for a lefty.  He showed strong K/IP and K/BB rates in the NWL last year, both great signs for his future.  I'm not sure he profiles as an ace, but he has #2 upside and will be brought along well by the Royals.  Same thing applies here as it did with Matzek and Salcedo, I can wait a few years for Lamb to get to the show.

#67 Christian Bethancourt-I have Kurt Suzuki at the MLB level in this league, and while he's not a star level player he's solid enough for now.  Bethancourt should be about ready by the time Suzuki starts getting really pricey, so hopefully they dovetail together to keep me set at catcher for the next 10 years.  Same Braves is in the league as well, and having taken Bethancourt in the other league I wanted to nab him before the other guy could get him.  I traded a 5th round pick in 2011 to move up here.

#70 Kyle Allen-Allen pitched very well in the Sally League last year and could really breakout this year.  He has a very good low 90's sinker that could tick up a bit as he matures and a good changeup.  If his walk rate and slider don't come around enough I can see him as strong late inning arm(we count holds along with saves).  Allen posted a strong K rate and is only 20, if he can cut his walk rate down a bit and get the slider to be an average pitch I see a strong #3 with #2 upside here.  With the pitching I have at the MLB level and the high upside arms I drafted ahead of him, I like Allen as a safer bet to contribute.

#71 Roman Mendez-After going the safer route with Allen, I went upside again with Mendez.  He's probably five years away from really contributing at a high level, but he's a guy who could have a lot of helium if he pitches well this year.  I figured I'd try and be ahead of the curve here and get him now before he breaks out.  Big time fastball and a good slider give him late inning options if he doesn't develop a change well in the next couple of years.  I trust the Red Sox when it comes to pitcher development so I'm comfortable waiting on this one.

#89 Sebastian Valle-I traded up here too, there was so much talent available I wished I could have had another 10 picks in this draft.  Valle is another young catcher I'm very high on, like Bethancourt.  I think Valle is a good bet to stay behind the dish maximizing his value in fantasy and his bat has loads of potential.  He and Bethancourt are kind of insurance against each other, hopefully at least one emerges as I expect but if both do then I have a surplus of talent at a valuable spot giving me options for trades.

#94 Wilking Rodriguez-This is another guy I think can gain serious helium this year so I wanted in now while the price was low.  I love the way the Rays develop pitchers, and while there is a lot talent ahead of him on the depth chart he's a few years off from being ready and could profile best as a closer long term anyway.  High upside arms like Rodriguez and Mendez make for great trade chips as well, if both have good starts to the year I can use them to fill needs as I try to repeat as champ.  While all of us that follow prospects religiously love the potential and can get too caught up in that and overvalue them, in fantasy they make for great currency in trades.

#95 Keyvius Sampson-I set out to really stockpile pitching this year since there was so much available, I still had at least 20 pitchers on my draft board that I really liked when I made my final pick here.  Yet another guy I think can gain serious helium this year, Sampson could really shoot up prospects lists with a good year.  He has huge upside and is a good athlete, he just needs innings to improve his secondary stuff.  The idea he could pitch half his big league games at Petco certainly wasn't lost on me when I made this pick, though at this point whether he's doing that as a starter or as a closer isn't clear.  Power arms are nice to have though, and I think I did a good job stacking them up in my system this year.

I'm ecstatic with the talent I landed in this draft.  I added seven high ceiling arms and three high ceiling hitters at valuable positions.  With most of the prospects I came into the year with being in the upper minors, I wanted to restock with lower level talent to try and keep the ability to cycle talent through my team as players on the MLB level get expensive.  The only thing I really wanted to do that I wasn't able to accomplish was shoring up 3B long term.  I had Brett Wallace and Gordon Beckham behind Jorge Cantu last year so I felt comfortable both in the short and long terms at the hot corner.  Then both move to new positions and I was forced to resign Cantu for two years to buy some time to find the next solution there.  Maybe I should have gone against my board and jumped for a 3B, but I felt like I couldn't pass up the high upside arms to do so.  I'll have to try and address this issue either this fall or next spring, but if that's the worst thing I can say about my draft I feel awfully good about it.

 

So fire away with comments/questions/criticisms.  I'm curious to see what everyone else thinks of the prospects I targeted.