Discussion Question: Lineups

by John Sickels on Apr 16, 2025 3:37 PM EDT Comment 68 comments

One of my favorite baseball topics is lineup construction. Studies show that the actual order of the lineup has only a small impact on the number of runs scored. But....well, so what? People have been debating lineups for 120 years and they aren't going to stop now. It is a lot of fun, and I probably used more ink and pencil lead writing up proposed lineups when I was in high school than I did on actual study.

So, let's say you are a manager. Your team is facing right-hander Matt Garza in your home park, which is neutral in terms of park effects. This is the team you have to work with:

Catcher: Victor Martinez
First Base: James Loney
Second Base: Howie Kendrick
Third Base: Ian Stewart
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Left Field: Gerardo Parra
Center Field: Nyjer Morgan
Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome
Designated Hitter: Billy Butler

Everyone is healthy for this game, and don't worry about defense or pitching or anything else. How do you build the lineup with these players?

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fun topic

i have read and agree that the best hitters should be in the 1,2, and 4 spots. with a boom-maybe bust guy in the 3.

after the first 4 you work in your better hitters near the top and pay attention to L/R .

-Morgan has good enough OBP and annoying speed to hit leadoff
—Butler is possibly the best current hitter… his OBP and contact ability is great for the 2 spot, with enough pop to worry Garza a bit.
—Stewart is a great boom/bust type with upside for my 3 spot. I like his power hitting behind OBP guys Butler and Morgan
—V-Mart is a good clean up guy for me. like his switch-handedness, and his experience with RISP over Stewart.
—Kendrick is my best-of-the-rest … again, good contact ability if we have RISP.
- Loney is similar to Kendrick in my eyes, and a lefty with better rbi potential than the other guys i have left
- Hardy is looking like he’ll have a bounce-back year. not completely sold yet, but he has more pop than Fukudome and is a righty following lefty Loney
- Fukudome could be a table-setter at the bottom… Parra isn’t so great, but has some speed i guess , so he hits last.

1. N Morgan
2. B Butler
3. I Stewart
4. V Martinez
5. H Kendrick
6. J Loney
7. J Hardy
8. K Fukudome
9. G Parra

by daveh33 on Apr 16, 2025 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh damnit

i rly dislike some of the formatting on sbnation… and i knew i was forgetting to preview first… disregard all the crossing

by daveh33 on Apr 16, 2025 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is probably

Closest to a theoretical best lineup for the given hitters, at least much closer than most of the more “traditional” lineups I see below with Morgan and Fukudome taking the top two spots.

I’d definitely bat Butler 2nd, the only thing I’d question is whether to bat Stewart 3rd or switch him with V-Mart to put Stewart’s power in the 4th position.

by oplaid on Apr 16, 2025 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

reason for vmart 4th

if we go down 1-2-3 in the 1st inning, its nice to have VMart leading off… and if there’s 2 outs with men on base, his bat is nice to have up there to possibly extend the inning / cause Garza trouble in putting him away

by daveh33 on Apr 17, 2025 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My lineup

1. Morgan
2. Hardy
3. Martinez
4. Butler
5. Stewart
6. Loney
7. Kendrick
8. Parra
9. Fukudome

by Yankees10 on Apr 16, 2025 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My lineup

1. Morgan
2. Fukudome
3. Loney
4. Martinez
5. Stewart
6. Butler
7. Kendrick
8. Hardy
9. Parra

Besides 9 people, everyones middle name is Allan.

--Greg Alan Maddux

by Matt Rox on Apr 16, 2025 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's one

1. Kendrick
2. Loney
3. Butler
4. Martinez
5. Stewart
6. Hardy
7. Parra
8. Fukudome
9. Morgan

by Bluethunder33 on Apr 16, 2025 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1) Morgan
2) Fukodome
3) Martinez
4) Butler
5) Stewart
6) Kendrick
7) Loney
8) Hardy
9) Parra

tremendously tremendous

by Crease Monkey on Apr 16, 2025 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

1) Morgan
2) Fukudome
3) Martinez
4) Butler
5) Stewart
6) Hardy
7) Loney
8) Kendrick
9) Parra

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Apr 16, 2025 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This would

Be my lineup

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 16, 2025 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I concur.

This would be the lineup I would go with.

by bgkrenz on Apr 17, 2025 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine

1. Morgan
2. Fukudome
3. Butler
4. VMart
5. Stewart
6. Hardy
7. Loney
8. Parra
9. Kendrick

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Apr 16, 2025 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mine

1) Morgan
2) Fukudome
3) Martinez
4) Butler
5) Stewart
6) Hardy
7) Loney
8) Parra
9) Kendrick

by John Sickels on Apr 16, 2025 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

While I’m not really a fantasy player, the counting stats kind, I am in a league based on Diamond Mind Baseball - and its interesting because you can actually TRY the lineups out by playing a bunch of games or by simulating a whole season, or many seasons. I think about lineups a lot. I feel like while the order of a lineup may not efffect the total amount of runs a team can score in a season that much - mostly because even the most foolish person generally will put his best hitters first - it really effects the consistency of how often a team scores runs.

Through trial and error, what I think works best is to list the players from 1-9 in order of how good an overall hitter the players are against the given pitcher and then move them around based on a good reason to do so… like so

Fukudome
Kendrick
VMart
Butler
Loney
Hardy
Stewart
Parra
Morgan

Not real comfortable with Fuk in the leadoff spot but he is the most natural at working the count -
-Kendrick swings the bat and gets knocks, nice contrast in the 2 hole
- another patient guy in the 3 hole, VMart, good hitter from both sides
- Butler perfectly suited for the 4 hole-
-Loney is decent in 5 hole, consistent hitter and gets on as the second leadoff man…
The guy who bats 5th should be an on base guy as well because he comes up first in the SECOND innning a lot
- Hardy gets hits and has pop
- Stewart is a stretch ahead of parra but he’s getting more patient and the power is nice there
- Parra looks like hes going to be a slasher ~~with some pop~~ but, maybe not a guy who works the count much
- Moragn is unusual, just based on last year he should be the leadoff man but, he has the least power of the 9 here and his real skill seems to be just finding a way on - a nice skill for the 9 spot

Based on theseplayers skills today, not just on last yeas stat-lines, i’d probably go with this lineup :-)

By the way, I like this lineup too. My kind of MIX of different kind of hitters.

by casejud on Apr 16, 2025 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

filled out the lineup before looking at the comments and this was the exact one that i came up with…

started by putting Fukudome 1 (obp), Morgan 9 (decent obp, good speed, second leadoff man), and Parra 9 (worst hitter on the list) … then filled in the 2-7 spots … put Hardy in the 7 (worst hitter left, although i still think he’s a solid player) and decided to put Loney in the 5 and Stewart in the 6 (to have Loney’s OBP before Stewart’s SLG) … with the 2-3-4 left, Kendrick-VMart-Butler seemed to make the most sense with Kendrick having the best bat control, VMart being the best overall hitter, and Butler having the most power

this team would definitely be one that would be capable of scoring runs up and down the order — pretty much all of these guys project to have above average OBPs.

by sfbennett1 on Apr 16, 2025 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet

Great minds think alike sometimes right? :-)

by casejud on Apr 17, 2025 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tried to get the top 3 hitters in the 1,2,4 spots. Loney/Kendrick might be a wash, but I’d expect Loney to get on base more, so he leads off. I wanted to have Kendrick ahead of Stewart, but i dropped him a spot to protect the lineup balance. V-Mart should probably lead off, but I don’t want to have two lefties back to back. That smells too much like the Phillies. There’s absolutely no way Nyjer Morgan should be batting lead off.

1. Loney
2. V-Mart
3. Fukudome
4. B. Butler
5. Ian Stewart
6. Kendrick
7. Parra
8. Hardy
9. Morgan

by JoshEngleman34 on Apr 16, 2025 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"Absolutely no way" Morgan should be leading off?

Morgan’s OBP by season:
2007: .359
2008: .345
2009: .369
2010: .378

Career: .363

Morgan’s an excellent option for the leadoff spot. His career OBP is better than Loney’s, and only .008 worse than Martinez’s. He’s not a bad leadoff guy just because he looks like an old-school leadoff guy. He’s actually good at it.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Apr 17, 2025 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

aside from getting on base

you need to run the bases a bit too. Vmart an Loney need at least two hits to score from first

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 18, 2025 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine

1. Nyjer Morgan
2. Howie Kendrick
3. Victor Martinez
4. Billy Butler
5. James Loney
6. JJ Hardy
7. Ian Stewart
8. Kosuke Fukudome
9. Gerardo Parra

by kershaw_equals_stud on Apr 16, 2025 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This...

Except I flip Hardy and Stewart.

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Apr 16, 2025 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nevermind.

I see why you have Hardy-Stewart. I prefer Stewart first, but to break up the RH you have to run it your way.

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Apr 16, 2025 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is mine.

by c60 on Apr 17, 2025 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

YES.

by hrv1978 on Apr 17, 2025 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. Fukudome
2. Martinez

by OccamsRazor on Apr 16, 2025 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Whoops

1. Fukudome
2. Martinez
3. Loney
4. Butler
5. Kendrick
6. Stewart
7. Hardy
8. Parra
9. Morgan

by OccamsRazor on Apr 16, 2025 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

GREAT TOPIC JOHN

My two cents:

I’m all about chucking the notion of speed guys leading off, etc. What you want, in my opinion, is obviously a guy who gets on base a good amount. Gerrardo Parra had a .373 OBP in the minors, and at this part of my lineup, I’m not asking for extra base hits (given his lack of power, that’s fine). Additionally, one thing I’ve learned from watching Jose Reyes for the past few years is that the sheer psychological aspect of him being on base weakens a pitcher on the mound. Pitchers have to know in the back of their head that a guy like Reyes could steal on any given pitch. If a pitcher isn’t 100% focused on a bat like Martinez’s, he’s liable to give up a pitch or two. The notion of the power alley generally located at the 3-4-5 spots doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. I’d rather structure a lineup like this, where there is some alternation between the types of bats a pitcher is going to face. If a pitcher knows that “I’ve just gotta get through X,Y,Z and then it’s onto the scrubs batting 6th” (hypothetical, of course), he can power through those guys and possibly loosen up a bit. The goal of the lineup I have presented is to not allow a pitcher to go more than one at bat without having to consider the power that is either at the plate, or on deck.

1. Gerrardo Parra
2. James Loney
3. Nyjer Morgan
4. Victor Martinez
5. Howie Kendrick
6. Billy Butler
7. Kosuke Fukodome
8. Ian Stewart
9. J.J. Hardy

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Apr 16, 2025 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

John, also, want to say

The content you’ve been posting lately has been top notch! I’ve loved this site for a while, but I will admit that for some time it was for your analysis and the fan posts. These great interactive posts add a whole new dimension to the site. Keep it up!

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Apr 16, 2025 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine...

V. Martinez
J. Loney
N. Morgan
B. Butler
I. Stewart
K. Fukudome
H. Kendrick
J. Hardy
G.Parra

Bet this line- up tears him apart.

by joegonzo on Apr 16, 2025 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Line-up construction...

I know most people will say Morgan is the guy who should be leading off and all, but following the old school style of constructing a line up is the wrong way to go. In my opinion, it should be your best hitter leading off to maximize his at bats and give him potential RBI opportunites with guys like Parra and Hardy batting in front of him at most times. Loney would be next for me because of his combo of average and contact ability, but also because he can drive the ball. Morgan would be third because of his speed and ability to make contact and possibly pick up some RBIs or keep an inning going. After that I was more old school with the way I constructed it though.

by joegonzo on Apr 16, 2025 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So bat

Victor leadoff to drive in the weakest all around hitters at the bottom of the lineup in?
He and butler are your proven run producers, don’t you want them coming up with more guys on base?

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 16, 2025 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I dont get Vmart batting leadoff.

by Yankees10 on Apr 16, 2025 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: mine wow, what a cruddy outfield

1. Morgan
2. Fukudome
3. V Martinez
4. Butler
5. Stewart
6. Loney
7. Kendrick
8. Hardy
9. Parra

what is this team’s rotation?

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Apr 16, 2025 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

1. Morgan
2. Fukudome
3. Butler
4. Martinez
5. Stewart
6. Loney
7. Hardy
8. Kendrick
9. Parra

by swilliam on Apr 16, 2025 6:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1. Morgan
2. Fukudome
3. Butler
4. Martinez
5. Stewart
6. Kendrick
7. Loney
8. Hardy
9. Parra

You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan

by Daniel Berlyn on Apr 16, 2025 7:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1) Morgan
2) Kendrick
3) V Martinez
4) Butler
5) Loney
6) Fukudome
7) Stewart
8) Hardy
9) Parra

by Jubilation on Apr 16, 2025 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My logic on my lineup

Morgan is the best that I have to leadoff (.363 OBP for his career). He also has some pretty good speed there which is going to make the pitcher throw a lot of fastballs to whoever comes up behind him. Kendrick is another guy that gets on base at a solid clip, doesn’t have a lot of power but handles the bat pretty well much like a Polanco (without quite the same eye). Martinez the best hitter on the club and gets the #3 hitter spot. Butler and Loney are two other very strong hitters, Butler does have a bit more pop than Loney which is why he hits cleanup and Loney #5. Fukudome gets on base at a very good club and has a bit of pop in his bat.Stewart does have very good power but tends so far to have a lower average and doesn’t control the strike zone that great. Hardy finds himself in the #8 spot, because Parra is just getting started in the majors and don’t want a lot of pressure on him.

by Jubilation on Apr 17, 2025 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morgan
Kendrick
Loney
Butler
Martinez
Stewart
Hardy
Fukudome
Parra

by red257 on Apr 16, 2025 8:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morgan
Kendrick
Loney
Martinez
Stewart
Butler
Hardy
Fukudome
Parra

by Wesrob1 on Apr 16, 2025 10:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My lineup

Nyjer Morgan
Kosuke Fukudome
Billy Butler
Victor Martinez
James Loney
Howie Kendrick
Ian Stewart
J.J. Hardy
Gerardo Parra

by jaroche6 on Apr 16, 2025 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lineup

1) Kosuke Fukudome (RF)
2) Billy Butler (DH)
3) Victor Martinez ©
4) Ian Stewart (3B)
5) J.J. Hardy (SS)
6) Howie Kendrick (2B)
7) Nyjer Morgan (CF)
8) James Loney (1B)
9) Gerardo Parra (LF)

by Navi's_Navy on Apr 16, 2025 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

Morgan
Loney
V-Mart
Butler
Stewart
Kendrick
Fukudome (maybe I swap him and Loney in April, but after April when he cools off, he’s here)
Hardy
Parra

by bl on Apr 16, 2025 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lineup:

Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome
Designated Hitter: Billy Butler
First Base: James Loney
Left Field: Gerardo Parra
Third Base: Ian Stewart
Second Base: Howie Kendrick
Catcher: Victor Martinez
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Center Field: Nyjer Morgan

Fukudome seems like a solid hitter to me, get on, see pitches, understand pitchers. It seems he’s one of the best at getting to pitchers early, but I don’t have the time to look it up. Just makes pitchers work.

I like the guys at the top to be stacked more, 2nd batter often gets wasted on trying to get another runner. IMO he should have a good OBP, but also be a solid hitter and work counts so the rest of the team can see pitches. Protect Butler with Loney, Loney with solid contact of Parra, then power of Stewart then contact of Kendrick. Then Martinez fits in to fill the gap, drive in baserunners or just start it up again. I like Morgan in the 9 hole to open things up again for the top of the order.

by phiago on Apr 16, 2025 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1. Nyjer Morgan aka Druken Usain Bolt aka Tony Plush
2. Howie Kendrick
3. Kosuke Fukudome
4. James Loney
5. Ian Stewart
6. Billy Butler
7. Victor Martinez
8. J.J. Hardo
9. Gerardo Parra

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"It's a great day to be a mountaineer, where ever you may be" Tony Caridi
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Apr 16, 2025 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

1-Morgan
2-Fukudome
3-Butler
4-Martinez
5-Stewart
6-Loney
7-Kendrick
8-Hardy
9-Parra

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: Better than any SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T; Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Apr 17, 2025 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

this is the lineup i would go with

by matthewmafa on Apr 17, 2025 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another

1. Fukudome
2. Kendrick
3. Butler
4. VMart
5. Stewart
6. Hardy
7. Loney
8. Parra
9. Morgan

9. Kendrick

by woobie on Apr 17, 2025 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Optimized lineup

Kusuke Fukudome
Victor Martinez
Ian Stewart
James Loney
Billy Butler
Howie Kendrick
Gerardo Parra
Nyjer Morgan
JJ Hardy

per a program from this guy in Taiwan:
http://tinyurl.com/yyv77d3

Butler and Hardy are RHB who struggle some against RHP; I used platoon splits for them here. For the other hitters, I just used CHONE. Kendrick is a RHB but with pretty even splits.

I actually went with the 2nd best lineup here, as Parra is better vs. RHP, and I liked him rather than Morgan in the 7th spot. Morgan can set the table from the 8th spot.

by acerimusdux on Apr 17, 2025 8:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

howie

splits favor lefties, a lot more xbh vs lhp than rhp, particularly last year, ops much better vs lhp

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 18, 2025 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a lot

Howie’s career wOBA is .333 vs. LHP, and .330 vs. RHP. There is more difference last year, but obviously smaller sample sizes as well. He does have more pop vs. lefties, but has a better OBP vs. righties. If I had used the splits there, I would guess it maybe would have moved Parra up another spot, to 6th, and Howie to 7th. But it wouldn’t change much else.

Part of the problem is, if I used career splits, Kendrick is a young player whose projection right now is significantly better than his career stats. So then I might have had to get into some math to do adjustments to make it reasonable.

Parra is another young improving player who you don’t have a lot of data on, so I think you also have to put the stats aside and use some judgement as well, and I’d even consider him as high as 5th here against the RHP, but probably 6th or 7th.

Hardy though is an example of where you really need to consider the splits. I see some putting him near the middle of the lineup, because he does have some pop, but against RHP he’s only a career .256/.309/.400 hitter, with a .309 wOBA. I think he really has to hit 8th or 9th vs. Garza.

I wouldn’t take the computer output as gospel here, but I do strongly believe:

Fukudome should lead off in this lineup
Martinez, Stewart, and Loney should all bat in the heart of the lineup, 2-5 spots
Butler maybe falls out of the top of the lineup vs. a RHP, but not lower than 5th or 6th
Morgan and Hardy should be 8th and 9th in some order

by acerimusdux on Apr 18, 2025 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd go this route:

Morgan
Kendrick
Butler
Martinez
Loney
Fukudome
Parra
Stewart
Hardy

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Apr 17, 2025 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My take

First Base: James Loney
Third Base: Ian Stewart
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Left Field: Gerardo Parra
Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome

Nyjer Morgan
Howie Kendrick
Billy Butler
Victor Martinez
James Loney
Ian Stewart
J.J. Hardy
Gerardo Parra
Kosuke Fukodome

I like Fukodome’s OBP skills at the bottom of an AL lineup, especially with Kendrick batting a couple spots behind him.

by Fanon on Apr 17, 2025 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Names at the top aren’t meant to be there.

by Fanon on Apr 17, 2025 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

1: Fukudome
2: Butler
3: Loney
4: Martinez
5: Stewart
6: Hardy
7: Kendrick
8: Parra
9: Morgan

by nivarsity on Apr 17, 2025 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My lineup:

1. Parra
2. Hardy
3. Martinez
4. Butler
5. Loney
6. Stewart
7. Fukudome
8. Kendrick
9. N. Morgan

Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Apr 17, 2025 4:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe if Kendrick EVER caught fire (doubt it) He and Hardy could swap places same with Morgan and Parra …

Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Apr 17, 2025 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one picked the optimal lineup churned out by Baseball Musings

Using my own projected OBP and SLG for each player, I ran the players through the lineup tool at Baseball Musings and here’s the top lineup:

1.K Fukudome
2. B Butler
3.G Parra
4. V Martinez
5. J Loney
6. I Stewart
7. H Kendrick
8. J Hardy
9. N Morgan

The above assumes my projections are correct. The tool also ignored handedness, but the second best lineup, which flips Stewart and Kendrick, would be ideal for that, producing: L, S, L, R, L, R, L, R, L:

1.K Fukudome
2. B Butler
3.G Parra
4. V Martinez
5. J Loney
6. H Kendrick
7. I Stewart
8. J Hardy
9. N Morgan

There’s not much of a range in term of OBP among the group as I project them; Only Hardy stands out on the low side, with Kendrick, Stewart and Parra grouped in the 330’s and the rest in the 350’s and 360’s.

There’s a bit more range in Slg but not much, with Butler the only one I project at .500 (on the nose) and everyone else spread between .380 (morgan) and .465 (martinez), with four players bunched near the middle.

I don’t know if John deliberately chose players without much of an obvious spread beyond handedness — I’d be curious how he chose the players.

John?

by Rotofan on Apr 17, 2025 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to try

to figure out why they would have Parra batting third. . . doesn’ t make sense to me there, he’s a fourth OF type to me

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 18, 2025 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

becasue he's not good

that tool pretty much always puts a crappy hitter 3rd.

The reason is that in real world lineups, how good the #3 hitter is doesn’t correlate much with overall runs scored. This actually tends to be true because nearly all real world lineups have a good #3 hitter. Of course that doesn’t mean that you should therefore put a crappy hitter 3rd.

But this is the problem with using linear regression analysis against a biased population (not every lineup has actually been tried in the real world data) and then assuming that correlation equals causation.

Given the craptasic methodology, it’s a wonder that tool is as good as it is. Most of the other lineup spots look fairly reasonable, not too different from what would be produced by a proper markov based lineup optimizer.

by acerimusdux on Apr 18, 2025 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

players

I tried to find a blend of guys with particular skills….a speed guy, an OBP guy, but not a total aggregation of all stars.

by John Sickels on Apr 18, 2025 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine was pretty close

I had Fukudome leadoff, Butler second, Martinez cleanup and Morgna 9th.

by nivarsity on Apr 19, 2025 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mine

1. N Morgan
2.K Fukudome
3. V Martinez
4. B Butler
5. I Stewart
6. J Loney
7. H Kendrick
8. J Hardy
9.G Parra

by daman316 on Apr 17, 2025 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here is mine

1 Nyjer Morgan CF
2 James Loney 1B
3 Victor Martinez C
4 Billy Butler DH
5 Kosuke Fukudome RF
6 Ian Stewart 3B
7 Howie Kendrick 2B
8 Gerardo Parra LF
9 JJ Hardy SS

"The best things in life aren't things; they're feelings"
-Anonymous

by eyerule12 on Apr 18, 2025 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

An Idea

Kosuke Fukudome CF
James Loney 1B
Victor Martinez C
Billy Butler DH
Ian Stewart 3B
J.J. Hardy SS
Howie Kendrick 2B
Gerardo Parra
Nyjer Morgan

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Apr 18, 2025 10:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

sorry

that’s:
Fukudome in RF with Parra in LF and Morgan in CF

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Apr 18, 2025 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Optimal Lineup

1. Nyjer Morgan
2. James Loney
3. Victor Martinez
4. Billy Butler
5. Ian Stewart
6. J.J. Hardy
7. Howie Kendrick
8. Kosuke Fukudome
9. Gerardo Parra

PPPPPPUNTO 4 MVP 2010

by punto4mvp on Apr 19, 2025 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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