Fantasy Baseball: Overall Rankings-First Base Prospects for 2011

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2025 7:29 PM EST

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5 months ago: ANAHEIM CA - JULY 16: Justin Smoak #17 of the Seattle Mariners hits a two run home run in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on July 16 2010 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

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As requested, here are my overall First Base Prospect Rankings for 2011, and I included Justin Smoak:

Rankings

1. Justin Smoak, SEA

2. Eric Hosmer, KC

3. Brandon Belt, SFG

4. Freddie Freeman, ATL

5. Brandon Allen, ARI

6. Anthony Rizzo, SD

7. Jerry Sands, LAD

8. Yonder Alonso, CIN

9. Chris Carter, OAK

10. Jonathan Singleton, PHI

11. Mark Trumbo, LAA

12. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI

More after the jump:

Couple points I'd like to make:

-Smoak would be #1 for me due to his power/BA package, although he didn't necessarily show it in 2010.

-Like I mentioned in my other post, I question Freeman's power at the major league level

-I could see Allen putting up some decent power this year, but with a .250 BA. Not sure where Towers/Gibson will olay him and what their plans are for him, but he should get a shot after improving his plate discipline in 2010.

-I am curious if the prospect experts are underestimating Sands. He has power and a solid eye at the plate. I would not be surprised to see him in LA in late 2011.

-Last night on the MLB channel, I heard Padres GM Jed Hoyer call Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo the Padres top two prospects right now. Rizzo should get a shot to be the Padres first baseman in 2012 at some point.

-I 'd like to see if Alonso can flash more power in AAA in 2011.

-I rated Singleton lower because he is so young, and am not sure if his fast start in 2010 was a fluke or not. Want to see more at a higher level.

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Read More: Brandon Allen (1B - ARI), Mark Trumbo (1B - ANA), Yonder Alonso (1B - CIN), Justin Smoak (1B - SEA), Freddie Freeman (1B - ATL), Anthony Rizzo (1B - SDP), Casey Kelly (P - SDP), Jerry Sands (OF - LOS), Brandon Belt (1B - SFG), Paul Goldschmidt (1B - ARI), San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers

Comments

Trumbo...

any takers?

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 7, 2025 8:04 PM EST reply actions

Pirates?

they seem to like guys like Trumbo

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2025 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

Below average?

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by jar75 on Dec 7, 2025 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

sorta

guys who are blocked….Laroche in LAD comes to mind….or as someone else said….has lost their prospect shine.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2025 11:20 PM EST up reply actions

then its settled...

trumbo for alvarez straight up…ok they can have B Wood…and Mathis…ok, fine Kazmir

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 8, 2025 12:11 AM EST up reply actions

I like the Smoak ranking

though since the draft I’ve never been able to choose between him and Hosmer. Well, that’s not true… I liked Smoak more for a long time, but I think I would lean Hosmer now - more on the basis of what Hosmer has done & how much he’s improved than Smoak’s SSS debut issues.

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by alskor on Dec 7, 2025 9:07 PM EST reply actions

Smoak

I seriously considered ranking him at 2 after saying he would be #1 in the comments of the previous article.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2025 9:27 PM EST up reply actions

He wasn't good at all last season across 600+ PA

Honestly, the only time he’s been impressive for an extended period of time was back in AA and his numbers were buoyed by an uncharacteristic .375 BABIP. Clearly he’s not going to be as bad as he was this year going forward, but I think Hosmer is well in front of him now. I also prefer Belt and Freeman over him, though I think those two are at least debatable. Actually, I’d definitely take Freeman if we’re talking about a fantasy league that doesn’t use OBP.

by nixa37 on Dec 8, 2025 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

If talking about 1B "prospects" with a chance to put up some fantasy numbers up in 2011

I’ll throw out Leslie Anderson of the Rays. While not your typical “prospect” depending on what happens the rest of this offseason he will have a shot to not only make the team out of ST but to start at either 1B or DH. While he may not be great and have upside like what people talk about with prospects I could see him hitting .265 with 10-15 HR 60+ RBI.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 7, 2025 9:32 PM EST reply actions

*those numbers if he starts around 140/150 games.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 7, 2025 9:33 PM EST up reply actions

Anderson

I included him in the “Others” section of the original article…..just don’t see him as the proto-typical 1bman….not much power

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2025 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Moreland

while he got a few too many at bats to qualify as as a rookie for next year, if he were on this list I think he would have to be pretty high up. While he won’t be just handed the job, I think the Rangers see him playing every day, in which case .270 and 20 hrs would seem to be a mid-range projection.

by Dalman on Dec 8, 2025 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

Ok but...

why rank Singleton if he will no longer play 1B next season?

by Havok1517 on Dec 7, 2025 9:42 PM EST reply actions

He is going to be tried in LF, it's hardly a lock

In fact, I would be pretty surprised if his longterm position isn’t first base.

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by jar75 on Dec 7, 2025 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with jar75

Howard was tested in the outfield when they has Thome at 1b…didn;t work out. Here it could, but want to see it first.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 7, 2025 11:21 PM EST up reply actions

Same with Chris Carter

Virtually no chance he sees significant time at 1B in 2011.

by BigJ7489 on Dec 8, 2025 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

Belt or Freeman in 2011?

Who would you rather have in 2011 from a fantasy perspective?

What about long-term?

by airweino on Dec 8, 2025 12:13 AM EST reply actions

as a Braves fan

I would say Freeman because I’m a Homer.

However, I would prefer Belt on my fantasy team. The guy’s FAST and will, I think, steal 25-30 bases in his prime.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Dec 8, 2025 1:59 AM EST up reply actions

Where are you seeing that he's FAST?

He stole 18 in San Jose then 2 in both AA and AAA. I can’t find it now of course but iirc he was interviewed as saying that he just took advantage of pitchers not paying attention to him on the basepaths and he doesn’t expect to be stealing bases going forward. I’m no scout but I saw him maybe 5-6 times while he was in San Jose and while he is clearly athletic for a guy who’s 6’5, he’s not exceptionally fast (although I do think he should be able to handle a COF position defensively)

by i r noobie on Dec 8, 2025 1:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Freeman

for 2011 and Belt long term….just curious when he gets the call with the loaded OF and corner infielders in SFG

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2025 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

Is Sands really a first-baseman though?

He looks better suited as a corner-outfield prospect, which I would hope the Dodgers groom him as such. I didn’t see him last season, but in 2009 he looked really comfortable in the outfield.

by wanderinredsfan on Dec 8, 2025 1:55 AM EST reply actions

Sands

probably more of a 1bman….apparently has a decent glove at 1B…lots of questions from the prospect experts on him, but the bat appears close

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2025 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

Adam Foster

thinks Sands 2010 season will be his “career” year….we’ll see….hope he is wrong as I am a LAD fan

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2025 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

Sands was a OF

mainly RF’er in the lower minors until he was moved to AA. AA had 3 guys who played the OF but not 1B, Sands, who knew how to play 1B, and a gap at the position. Sands took it and excelled. He could play either place, but for now he will play 1B most likely

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 9, 2025 12:54 AM EST up reply actions

Something doesn't add up there

Sands played 41 games at 1B in the MWL vs. 27 in the OF, then 21 games at 1B in AA and 50 in the OF there. I think he’s probably a 1B in the long run too, but he actually played more 1B in A ball this year than he did in AA.

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by gatling on Dec 10, 2025 1:06 AM EST up reply actions

Concern about Rizzo

is that he’s a lefty power bat, the type that Petco typically kills. If he’s going to be successul at all, he’s going to have to learn to walk more, and either go to the opposite field liek Adrian Gonzalez did, or develop a more line drive type stroke that will let him find the gaps more.

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by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 8, 2025 1:07 PM EST reply actions

all good points

can’t disagree….but he is still just 21 so he could add some power. He’s a big guy-6-3, 220.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2025 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

What I don't get on Rizzo

Is how he’s a better bet as a 1B for the Padres - particularly in that park as Zach notes - than Kyle Blanks is. Blanks has a better hit tool and if there’s any differential in his power tool (which there may or may not be), it’s offset by the benefit of being a RH pull hitter in the NL West. I know Rizzo’s considered a premium defender, but it seems odd to be totally in love with him and barely even mention Blanks at this point, which is what Jed’s been doing since the trade.

by realitypolice on Dec 8, 2025 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Blanks in LF

maybe? but I have to think Hoyer is partial to “his” guys….and Rizzo is one of his.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2025 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

sure

every new management team is.

i don’t see how Blanks is a LF though. maybe get some Padres fans input on his D.

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by doublestix on Dec 8, 2025 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Blanks

played LF in the past….but he is not the greatest defender out there.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2025 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure anyone's forgotten about Kyle.

I think Hoyer’s intent in the trade was to secure the best possible talent regardless of position, and Rizzo qualified. Blanks, remember, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and while he’ll be able to swing a bat by ST, who knows how effective he’ll be. I have to think there’s going to be a competition in AAA essentially when Kyle gets healthy. Plus, unless trades have been outlawed, I don’t see the problem in having multiple talented prospects.

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by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 8, 2025 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

this

Rizzo very well could end up being a plus defender at 1st, for what that’s worth…Blanks is unlikely to be a plus defender anywhere. He looked like end-of-career Bonds in left at times last year. I’m a believer in his bat though. I think this was a good trade for the Padres (though it would be better for Rizzo if they brought the RF fence in a little bit)

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 8, 2025 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

fair enough

Blanks absolutely won’t be ready to start the year in the outfield from everything I’ve read, so they’re definitely going to have to do something at 1B/DH in Tucson. In the interviews I’ve heard with Hoyer, he’s just seemed utterly ambivalent about Blanks, which seems weird for a 24-year-old with his skill set.

The biggest loser in all of this is Matt Clark, who I don’t think was a future regular, but now is going to get squeezed just to have a roster spot. He’s got plus power and if he had another year to play regularly, he might have created at least a short window of big league opportunity for himself. Unless the new regime decides to bite the bullet and put Allan Dykstra out of his misery, Clark can’t really stand still in Double-A either and is probably the odd man out.

by realitypolice on Dec 9, 2025 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

Smoak

His star seems to have been tarnished because he didn’t play well in his 1st season and the move to Safco. From a fantasy perspective is he a relatively safe buy low to start performing up to his billing in the next 1-2 years?

by highheat on Dec 8, 2025 2:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I think so

many rookies fail in their first few seasons. I would take the chance in keeper leagues for sure…..late round pick in redraft leagues.

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2025 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure I buy Smoak having a very good average

He’s struck out a good bit in AAA and the majors and he’s generally been average or below in terms of BABIP.

by nixa37 on Dec 8, 2025 5:04 PM EST reply actions

Dude,

Have you seen his minor-league BABIP numbers? Or his LD rates?

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by Conjunction on Dec 8, 2025 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Have you seen his PCL BABIP numbers?

He’s got just a .301 BABIP in 380 AB in a league where the average is generally in the .315 range. Yeah, he posted a great BABIP in 183 AA ABs, but other than that he’s never shown good BABIP ability.

I’m not going to put a ton of stock in Smoak’s LD rate when his BABIP was so bad and his previous numbers in AAA back it up. Obviously he’s better than his.255 from last year, but I don’t think he’s nearly as good as that LD rate would indicate. I’d also add that he had one of the worst IFFB rates in the majors (4th worst among players with over 350 PA). That’s certainly not helping his BABIP.

by nixa37 on Dec 9, 2025 1:01 AM EST up reply actions