Rule 5 Open Thread

It starts at 9 AM ET; does it not?

by bankertuck on Dec 9, 2025 7:54 AM EST reply actions

Technically 8:55 AM ET

by 200tang on Dec 9, 2025 8:59 AM EST up reply actions

Josh Rodriguez seems like a weird pick

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 9:28 AM EST reply actions

How so?

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Dec 9, 2025 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Pirates have a huge need for pitching and upside

Josh Rodriguez’s best case scenario is what, a serviceable bench guy?

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

Infield

Have you seen the infield depth on the 40-man roster? They could use a serviceable part there.

by APV on Dec 9, 2025 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

Sure, but you can fill that infield bench spot pretty easily

I’d have thought they’d gamble on someone who could be more than that (like Evan Meek a few years ago and Donald Veal the year after).

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Meek didn't stick...

…and Veal didn’t exactly provide a huge ROI for the team.

You can make a case for Rodriguez starting over Cedeno at short in 2011.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

They gave TB pennies to keep him

As for Veal? So what? The investment was minuscule. No, you cannot make that case.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

And that comes as someone who thinks Cedeno is terrible

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

They gave TB pennies to keep him

Counting on being able to buy prospects from your competitors for pennies: A sure-fire winning strategy!

No, you cannot make that case.

Watch me!

ZiPS, Cedeno, 2011: .253/.295/.385, 81 OPS+
ZiPS, Rodriguez, 2011: .249/.324/.374, 91 OPS+ (with Cleveland)

Defensively, UZR had Cedeno as a -4.0/150 last year, and a -4.1/150 for his whole career as a shortstop. By B-R’s Rdrs/yr, he was a -16 per 1200 innings last year, and a -5 for his whole career as a shortstop.

Given that Rodriguez is probably a significantly better hitter than Cedeno, and that Cedeno is a below-average fielder by most people’s reckoning, how good a shortstop defender does Rodriguez have to be in order to be a better option at the position? Not very…

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Clarification:

-5 per 1200, that is.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

So, you're saying drafting Evan Meek wasn't a good decision?

Dan and ZiPS are great, but using it on minor leaguers is not something I would do. I just don’t put that much weight into minor league statistics. I don’t think Rodriguez is anything that Neal couldn’t have picked up cheaply elsewhere. Ben Badler said of him, via tweet:

Josh Rodriguez was not going to make the Indians top 30. Avg arm but hit, power, speed all blw-avg tools, solid AAA guy

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

I'm assuming the Pirates have a higher opinion of him than that

by mrkupe on Dec 9, 2025 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

And don't misunderstand me

I’m not saying this is a stupid move. In all likelihood, the player, whoever it is, will be returned to the team. I was just surprised he didn’t opt for a higher ceiling than Rodriguez.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

I was just surprised he didn’t opt for a higher ceiling than Rodriguez.

Your surprise at his lack of ceiling is a function of your underestimation of the level of that ceiling.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

Based on?

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

Lots of things.

The statistical projections you dismissed in this thread, the opinions just about every non-Badler prospect guy (who all seem to like Rodriguez more than Badler does - including John, in this thead), the opinions of Indians bloggers who have been following him closely for several years, etc.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

(oops)

Not this thread - that thread.

Got turned around for a second, there.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

Where are you getting this upside from?

<Offensive-minded utility type. Bench fodder, not a potential regular./blockquote>
-Baseball America

Turns 26 this month, hit .297/.378/.484 between Double-A and Triple-A this year. Has some pop in his bat and controls the strike zone decently, adequate with the glove, looks like he could be a good utility player but I think he might have a surprise season in him.

-John

Pirates: Josh Rodriguez, UT (from Cleveland): One of the best players in that “Older, Triple-A Guy” category. Rodriguez can play second and third at the big league level, shortstop in a pinch, and even some corner outfield. He doesn’t have a plus tool, but he has enough patience and gap power to stick.

-Kevin Goldstein

They’re calling him a utility, bench player. John sees potential for a surprise season, but it’s basically what I said earlier in this line of posts:
Josh Rodriguez’s best case scenario is what, a serviceable bench guy?

I stated that I was surprised Neal didn’t opt for one of the higher upside Rule 5 gambles, and I’ve seen no reason to think I’m underselling his ceiling.

As for the projection, I just said that I wouldn’t use it for minor leaguers. He very well could match those type of numbers. It still doesn’t mean he should be playing at SS or that his ceiling isn’t limited.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

They’re calling him a utility, bench player.

John uses the word “utility”, but says in the same sentence that he could surprise by being better than that. Kevin doesn’t use either “utility” or “bench player”, so that’s pretty clearly not what he’s “calling him”. Keith Law, whom you didn’t quote, said he could be a starter.

Even Callis is more optimistic than Badler. Badler’s saying that he’s a “AAA guy”, i.e. not a ML-caliber player. Which is pretty crazy, I think.

As an example of Cleveland input, Tony Lastoria has probably seen more of Rodriguez than all of the national experts combined, and he likes him quite a lot.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

Goldstein labeled him as a UT

And the write-up clearly points in that direction. I haven’’t seen Keith Law’s take on the Rule 5 draft (no mention of it on his twitter account or his blog).

I’ve had enough arguing over him though. I see a potential bench guy, but I am expecting it to be more like the Raynor Rule 5 pick. My only comment was that I expected him to go after someone with more upside, not that it was a poor decision or anything that drastic.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 9:03 PM EST up reply actions

just wondering

What kind of upside were you looking for? It’s not easy to find a guy who can legitimately project to be anything more in a starting rotation than a fringe guy, and most of the power arms that might fit in a pen are a long ways off and/or have absolutely nothing in the way of promising statistical results.

by mrkupe on Dec 9, 2025 9:26 PM EST up reply actions

I was expecting one of the power relievers

They are complete wild cards, but you could come away with an above average reliever if they happen to find the strike zone. It probably won’t work out for them, but who knows? The Pirates have innings to waste on those types of players.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 10:08 PM EST up reply actions

Just out of curiosity:

If you were to guesstimate a batting line for Rodriguez next year, what would it be?

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

If I were to bet on an outcome, it would look similar to John Raynor’s 2009. He makes the team, but only gets a handful of ABs before being sent back.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 7:10 PM EST up reply actions

*2010

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 7:10 PM EST up reply actions

Indulge me:

If he were left in the majors all year, and got a typical UT IF’s playing time, what would he hit?

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

So, you’re saying drafting Evan Meek wasn’t a good decision?

From a process standpoint, no, it wasn’t. They judged that they’d be able to carry him all year, and they weren’t. They had to waive him and offer him back to his original organization. If the Rays hadn’t made a mistake of their own in agreeing to sell his rights, he’d still be Tampa’s property.

Dan and ZiPS are great, but using it on minor leaguers is not something I would do.

“This hammer is great, but pounding nails? Not my thing.”

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

Minor league statistics and major league statistics are not the same thing

Yes, Dan uses MLEs to try to make them comparable. I’m just not convinced that you can come up with a system that can accurately predict MLB performance based on MiLB statistics.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

I’m just not convinced that you can come up with a system that can accurately predict MLB performance based on MiLB statistics.

ZiPS doesn’t seem significantly less accurate in its projections derived from MLEs than it does in its projections derived from actual ML numbers.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

I think his best case is a good bit higher than that

For Rodriguez it really comes down to health. He has good power for a middle infielder and solid walk rates. I think he’s a solid bet to be a good backup UTL guy capable of playing most anywhere really(maybe not CF). I do think there is a chance he could be a starter for Pittsburgh either at SS or at 2B if they move Alvarez to 1B and Walker to 3B.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Dec 9, 2025 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Does he really have the ability to handle SS defensively?

I suppose he could see time as a late inning replacement/emergency starter there, but not sure about starter.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 9, 2025 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not totally sure

about his defense at short. I was mainly thinking about getting his bat in the lineup with Cedeno being the late inning replacement if needed. If he could be average defensively at short his bat would play very well there. If not, it’s good enough to play at 2B if the Pirates reconfigure the INF.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Dec 9, 2025 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

I love this pick

Rare to find a player in the Rule 5 with such versatile talents. The injuries aren’t even a concern here - if Rodriguez gets hurt, he won’t take up a 25 man roster slot, and you can give him rehab ABs in the minor leagues.

by mrkupe on Dec 9, 2025 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

As far as the injuries, I really meant his overall future not just this year, but you are absolutely correct. I was a big believer in him a few years ago, still am at this point. Definitely worth giving 300+ AB’s to see what happens.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Dec 9, 2025 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

Emaus

might be a nice add for Mets.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Dec 9, 2025 9:29 AM EST reply actions

bring that Beato back

liek the beato pick in rd 2 too

by tvators01 on Dec 9, 2025 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

I don't

lol

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Dec 9, 2025 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

Look at it this way

They saved themselves $1.2M in bonus money and four years of minor league roster spots for the chance to give him a look in spring training! LOL

by realitypolice on Dec 9, 2025 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

He could be a steal

Power, some speed, great plate discipline, solid hitter. Might be able to compete for the starting 2B gig, or take over once Castillo fizzles again.

by at022482 on Dec 9, 2025 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

Super utility

That’s what Alderson said this morning. My guess- Castillo is waived or salary dumped (trade) during spring training and Emaus is used to spot Murphy, Wright and Bay (didn’t the Blue Jays put him in the COF some in AAA?) throughout the season. He and Pedro are very nice finds for us I think.

by thehitonecafe on Dec 9, 2025 12:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Agreed

I groaned when I saw that he went (I’m a Blue Jays fan). I hope this means that the team wants to keep Lawrie and that they like his defense at 2B.

by Johnny Tuttle on Dec 9, 2025 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Idk if this has been brought up

But with Hill’s presence and Baustista’s possible departure, I would think Lawrie a better fit for 3B, considering his skill set would probably be better for it long-term.

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 9, 2025 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

How does Emaus field?

It seems he has a solid approach, although his stats may be a bit skewed from played in Las Vegas, however, anything is better than Luis Castillo at this point.

by jaroche6 on Dec 9, 2025 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

not well.

apparently scouts think he is a below average defender at both 2B and 3B per Baseball America. But, really, can he be any worse than the undead corpse of Luis? I think his competition will come from Murphy and Luis will be bought out.

by thehitonecafe on Dec 9, 2025 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

Hope someone snatches up

Marquez Smith

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Dec 9, 2025 9:29 AM EST reply actions

I'm not surprised the Cubs kept him

He’s a 3rd baseman who didn’t handle 2nd well enough, and hasn’t dabbled in the OF. He lacks big time power, and is more of a line drive stroke. It’s hard to see a team keeping a guy like that on the bench for the whole year.

by toonsterwu on Dec 9, 2025 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

-1

plays multiple positions, swings the bat well, and draws walks. there are a lot of worse players occupying the 4th/5th spot on mlb benches

by ScottAZ on Dec 9, 2025 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

plays multiple positions?

He was so bad at 2nd that they never pondered trying him there again. I actually would’ve liked to see the cubs give him some reps at 2nd as he moved up, but they chose not to.

by toonsterwu on Dec 9, 2025 8:18 PM EST up reply actions

would have liked the dbacks

to get him.
as of now we have no 3b. we basically had nothing to lose

by ScottAZ on Dec 9, 2025 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

Emaus would have been nice for potentially filling that spot too

But honestly, we needed a LOOGY. Mike Hampton, Jordan Norberto, and Zach Kroenke should not be our three options for that role. Emaus or Smith were possibilities, but if they didn’t crack part of the platoon, they were going to wind up sent back to the Jays/Cubs. Paterson is more of a guarantee to stick.

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2025 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

potential LOOGY > potential fill-in starting third baseman?

by mrkupe on Dec 9, 2025 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Definite LOOGY?

The spot is apparently his to lose. And this is Kevin Towers we’re talking about here, relief pitchers are kind of his obsession. :-)

(For what it’s worth, it’s hard to blame him going after relievers that much, given the absurdity of this year’s free agent relief market and the historic, though probably unsustainable, level of suckitude that our relievers put us through in 2010.)

We don’t need more than a year or two of stop-gap 3B play before some of our top
“3B” prospects are supposed to start filtering through. Yeah, 3B was in quotes for a reason, but the team is keeping them there for the time being so the team apparently feels like there’s a worthwhile chance of one of them sticking at the corner. Davidson supposedly showed signs of defensive improvement in 2010. We’ll have to wait and see, I guess.

And we’d already signed both Geoff Blum and Melvin Mora to platoon at third. I know, that combo of players should never really stop a team from getting someone who could be an improvement, but we did dedicate somewhere around $4.5MM-$5MM to those two guys (Blum for two years, Mora for one).

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2025 8:58 AM EST up reply actions

Results of the 2010 Rule 5 Draft:

Major League Phase
PIT: Josh Rodriguez, SS, Columbus (CLE)
SEA: Jose Flores, RHP, Columbus (CLE)
ARI: Joe Paterson, LHP, Fresno (SF)
BAL: Adrian Rosario, RHP, Nashville (MIL)
KC: Nathan Adcock, RHP, Indianapolis (PIT)
WAS: Elvin Ramirez, RHP, Buffalo (NYM)
CHC: Mason Tobin, RHP, Salt Lake (LAA)
HOU: Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, Durham (TB)
MIL: Patrick Egan, RHP, Norfolk (BAL)
NYM: Bradley Emaus, 2B, Las Vegas (TOR)
SD: George Kontos, RHP, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (NYY)
MIN: Scott Diamond, LHP, Gwinnett (ATL)
NYY: Robert Fish, LHP, Salt Lake (LAA)
TB: Cesar Cabral, LHP, Pawtucket (BOS)
PHI: Michael Martinez, IF, Syracuse (WAS)
WAS: Brian Broderick, RHP, Memphis (STL)
HOU: Lance Pendleton, RHP, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (NYY)
NYM: Pedro Beato, RHP, Norfolk (BAL)
NYY: Daniel Turpen, RHP, Pawtucket (BOS)

Triple-A Phase
PIT: Bradley Chalk, OF, San Antonio (SD)
ARI: Jose Rivera, OF, West Tenn (SEA)
BAL: Dale Mollenhauer, 2B, Birmingham (CWS)
KC: Lewis Rollins, RHP, Montgomery (TB)
WAS: Michael Allen, RHP, New Britain (MIN)
NYM: Ronny Morla, RHP, Tennessee (CHI)
FLA: Jaime Ortiz, IF, Chattanooga (LAD)
LAA: Daniel Sattler, RHP, Midland (OAK)
OAK: Jeiler Castillo, RHP, Corpus Christi (HOU)
TOR: Ivan Contreras, 2B, Arkansas (LAA)
STL: Jean Mijares, LHP, New Britain (MIN)
SD: Jacob Blackwood, 3B, Richmond (SF)
TEX: Fausto Mier, C, Chattanooga (LAD)
ATL: Eliecer Cardenas, RHP, New Britain (MIN)
SF: Justin Dowdy, LHP, Montgomery (TB)
PHI: Christopher Frey, OF, Tulsa (COL)
PIT: Travis Scott, C, Arkansas (LAA)
BAL: Casey Lambert, LHP, Tennessee (CHC)
NYM: Richard Brooks, RHP, Birmingham (CWS)
TEX: Starling De La Rosa, LHP, Northwest Arkansas (KC)
ATL: Rowdy Hardy, LHP, Northwest Arkansas (KC)
SF: Dashennko Ricardo, C, Bowie (BAL)
PHI: Justin Friend, RHP, Midland (OAK)
SF: Matthew Sartor, RHP, Chattanooga (LAD)

Double-A Phase
BAL: Jacob Rasner, RHP, Winston-Salem (CWS)
NYM: Quintin Berry, OF, Lake Elsinore (SD)
FLA: Brent Allar, RHP, Frederick (BAL)
TOR: Roan Salas, IF, VSL Rays (TB)

by tvators01 on Dec 9, 2025 10:19 AM EST reply actions

Cubs

Tobin is reportedly headed to the Rangers (BA).

Cubs lose Morla and Lambert in minor league phase. I think Lambert can still make a good LOOGY. He was rehabbing from TJS last year. At his best, nice high 80’s fastball with a plus curve. I like Morla’s raw stuff enough, but there’s enough raw ability guys in the low minors for the Cubs.

All in all, the losses don’t hurt that bad for the Cubs. Curious if Tobin is a standalone move, or related to the Davis rumors.

by toonsterwu on Dec 9, 2025 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

tobin

bruce miles at the daily herald has indicated that Tobin is headed for cash, so looks like a standalone deal (and not related to the DAvis rumors).

by toonsterwu on Dec 9, 2025 10:43 AM EST up reply actions

I know it's the minor league phase and I really shouldn't care

But in looking for “Jose Rivera,” the only player I’ve come up with (through B-R and MiLB.com) is a second baseman who spent last year at the rookie-level affiliate of the Rockies… did AZ just draft a non-existent human?

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2025 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

Rivero, I believe -

The player in question is likely Jose Rivero, an outfielder who played for Everett in 2009 and Pulaski for part of 2010. Big guy, decent power, big strikeout problem.

by Andy Stallings on Dec 9, 2025 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

A Mariners' farmhand

with a strikeout problem??? That they DIDN’T hold on to?

by realitypolice on Dec 9, 2025 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

Yup, I found him

Though he’s headed to another org, apparently.

Dom Mazzetti vs. Four Loko: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWxF6R4FXTI (Warning: Language NSFW)
"ENERGY BEEYUH!" "I can't wait to eat Chipotle latuh." "They removed us from the club." "I fed my fat friend a lot of cake." "I just lightly punched it until it died."

by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2025 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

Not a braves fan

but ya have to root for a guy named Rowdy Hardy!

by tvators01 on Dec 9, 2025 10:20 AM EST reply actions

this is a very sad day for us to lose him

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Dec 9, 2025 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting to see Kontos

He’ll be reaching the 18 month mark from TJS just as spring training opens. If he gets back up to sitting at 94-ish like before surgery (was sitting 91 in Trenton with occasional 93-4), with his slider, he could certainly be a good bullpen piece in the majors this year. Having just shoveled out four reliever bodies in trades, it’s certainly a good gamble for the Padres to take. If only they had that OTHER Yankee RHP Rule 5 pick in their system still…

by realitypolice on Dec 9, 2025 10:33 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

I always kind of liked Kontos and I can see him being a solid reliever for San Diego if he’s fully healthy.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Dec 9, 2025 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

Ivan Contreras

what do you guys think of him

by Michael C Grantz on Dec 9, 2025 3:12 PM EST reply actions

He's short.

That’s pretty much the extent of what I know.

by Vlad on Dec 9, 2025 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

Aneury Rodriguez went from the worst possible situation for his career to the best, good for him.

by The_Bunk on Dec 9, 2025 4:43 PM EST reply actions

not the worst

Being a Boston starting pitcher prospect has to be the worst. Tons of pitchers already at the major league level, lots of competition from other minor leaguers, and the organization always takes a long look at any frontline starter possibility, regardless of the cost.

by mrkupe on Dec 9, 2025 9:00 PM EST up reply actions