Community Positional Prospect #18 Runoff
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After 84 votes, Devin Mesoraco and Derek Norris are only separated by 4 votes. We go to a runoff. I will end this some time tomorrow afternoon.
Candidates:
Devin Mesoraco
Derek Norris
- #01 - MIKE TROUT - 48.0%
- #02 - BRYCE HARPER - 38.1%
- #03 - DOMONIC BROWN - 30.1% (53.3%)
- #04 - JESUS MONTERO - 47.9%
- #05 - ERIC HOSMER - 35.9%
- #06 - DUSTIN ACKLEY - 37.7% (52.5%)
- #07 - WIL MYERS - 60.5%
- #08 - MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 58.8%
- #09 - DESMOND JENNINGS - 46.4%
- #10 - BRANDON BELT - 42.0%
- #11 - FREDDIE FREEMAN - 46.2%
- #12 - MANNY MACHADO - 50.0%
- #13 - BRETT LAWRIE - 40.5%
- #14 - AARON HICKS - 35.3%
- #15 - NICK FRANKLIN - 27.8% (55%)
- #16 - BRETT JACKSON - 28% (50.7%)
- #17 - LONNIE CHISENHALL - 36.2%
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+1
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by Brickhaus on Dec 15, 2025 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
+1
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see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
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by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 16, 2025 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
What exactly is the argument for Norris over Mesoraco?
Other than injury history?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Dec 15, 2025 11:47 PM EST reply actions
they are essentially the same
I love Norris’ obp tho. Mesoraco is shinier and newer tho. so not surprised to see him leading
by daveh33 on Dec 16, 2025 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure that's a fair characterization of Mesoraco
He was a first round pick, so it’s not like he doesn’t have the pedigree. He struggled the first couple of years, but that’s not at all uncommon for a HS catcher. He hit well in High A and AA and posted solid walk and K rates. Norris walks a lot more(like twice as much) but he K’s a good bit more too. Power is a push, and Mesoraco probably has a slight advantage defensively. I can see why someone would prefer Norris, but it’s not like there isn’t plenty of reason to like Mesoraco more.
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by gatling on Dec 16, 2025 2:15 AM EST up reply actions
Great OBP, solid track record
Norris is coming off his third straight very good season, while Mesoraco was a disappointment up until this year. I love that Norris’ advanced batting eye and see no reason why it will not translate into .400 OBP seasons in the majors. He also has some power upside given the hamate issue he dealt with this season. I think defense is a push and see no reason why Norris can’t stick behind the dish.
Now what exactly is the argument for Mesoraco over Norris?
by deezle on Dec 16, 2025 9:16 AM EST up reply actions
Apart from the fact that Norris hasn't done anything above A ball yet
His K rates are way, way higher than Mesoraco. Devin’s were right at 20% over three levels reaching AAA, and Norris was at 31.5% in A+ ball. My fear with him would be that as he progresses and defenses get better, he just won’t be putting enough balls in play to maintain a decent average, regardless of the walks.
Also, you can argue for Norris’ power potential, but Devin has already showed it, to the tune of a .285 ISO this season. That is way, way higher than anything Norris has put up over a full season.
I think an argument could be made for either (Norris OBP, more consistent pro career, Meso better power, contact). But for me, the fact hat Mesoraco has done it at a higher levels seals it for him.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 16, 2025 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
If Norris K rate is way, way higher than Mesoraco's
does that mean Norris’ BB rate is way, way, WAY higher? Norris had 89 BB and 94 K in 298 AB last year, while Mesoraco had only 43 BB and 80 K in 397 AB. Personally, I don’t mind a slightly high K rate if a player counters it with a very high walk rate, which Norris has shown for three years he can do.
Agree that an argument can be made for either, but while Mesoraco performed well at higher levels (despite production dropping with each promotion), I don’t think it’s fair to knock Norris just because his team chose not to promote him. And again, I think you have to take Norris’ power numbers this season with a grain of salt due to the hamate.
by deezle on Dec 16, 2025 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
But the K rate certainly isn't going to go down as he advances
(as he ages, maybe, but those are different things)
Point is, it’s tough to find successful major leaguers who K over 30% of the time. Most who are successful have elite power, and until we see that from Norris, it’s tough to get too terribly excited.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 16, 2025 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
K rate
It’s not entirely fair to say Norris had a K rate over 30%, because that’s only true if you use K/AB like fangraphs, instead of the more preferred K/PA. Norris ends up with a 23.6% K rate when you calculate based on PA’s, which is better but he still K’s about a third more often than Mesoraco who is at 17.7% K/PA.
I’m not sure what you’re considering “elite power” but Norris is capable of posting ISO’s in the .200 range. You can’t just look at Norris’ ISO this year because with the hamate injury we’re not getting a true representation of his power. Mesoraco showed an ISO of .282 this year, and while it probably won’t stay in that range I can see him with slightly better power numbers over their careers.
Besides defensive concerns, I think some people worry that Norris’ walk rate could be a product of passivity at the plate instead of plus-plus discipline(which makes some sense with the K rate). Not sure I totally buy that argument, but I can see why people would believe it.
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by gatling on Dec 16, 2025 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
K/AB
Is so dumb.
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by JDSussman on Dec 16, 2025 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
So is over-relying on BB%
There are a wide spectrum of good hitters when it comes to BB%, but guys that strike out too much in the minors almost universally suck
by MatthewD on Dec 16, 2025 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
Well, it's not that it's not fair, just that I'm using a different method.
Maybe K/PA is better, but K/AB isn’t “unfair”.
At any rate, I do believe that K rate based on K/AB is more indicative of what a guy will AVG and SLG in the majors, since it indicates the ability (or lack thereof) to make good contact on pitches.
Also, I wasn’t going to use this as an argument, because it’s highly debatable, but I think BB rates should be taken with a grain of salt in the low minors, simply because there are so many pitchers there with serious control problems who often miss the plate by a mile.
Sure, .227 ISO is excellent, but that was one season of 4. If he approaches that again in 2011, and keeps the BB rate super high while getting the K rate more under control (by any metric) , he’s a top 10 guy in my mind.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 16, 2025 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Actually,
Unfair is exactly what K/AB is.
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by JDSussman on Dec 16, 2025 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Not at all
I understand and agree with the argument for K/PA, especially with a guy like Norris who walks so much.
But I think there’s something here that the two numbers don’t account for.
Sure, Norris walks a lot when other guys are swinging and either missing or making outs in the field.
But it’s also reasonable to assume that he’s also letting tasty pitches go by in a lot of those PAs when he ends up walking that could be hard hit LDs and/or homers.
I realize that is a lot of conjecture and not traditionally sabr friendly, and I also agree that, in general, K/PA is a better measure (but even by that measure, Norris Ks a lot more than Meso), but for understanding the ability to make contact, and swing at hitter’s pitches rather than taking them, K/AB might have some merit.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 16, 2025 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
It is unfair
Maybe K/PA is better, but K/AB isn’t "unfair".
It penalizes any player with an above average walk rate. Scaling it to plate appearances allows for equal comparison between players with varying walk rates.
At any rate, I do believe that K rate based on K/AB is more indicative of what a guy will AVG and SLG in the majors, since it indicates the ability (or lack thereof) to make good contact on pitches.
I agree to an extent about how K/AB could be indicative of a player’s future batting average, but I’m not really sure that it’s indicative at all of SLG%. There are tons of players how hit for above average power at the MLB level with poor K/AB rates.
Also, I wasn’t going to use this as an argument, because it’s highly debatable, but I think BB rates should be taken with a grain of salt in the low minors, simply because there are so many pitchers there with serious control problems who often miss the plate by a mile.
I agree, which is why I mentioned the contingent of people who think Norris’ walk rate could be a product of passivity at the plate.
Sure, .227 ISO is excellent, but that was one season of 4. If he approaches that again in 2011, and keeps the BB rate super high while getting the K rate more under control (by any metric) , he’s a top 10 guy in my mind.
Well, Norris hasn’t posted an ISO below .179 at any stop in the minors. Prior to this year Mesoraco couldn’t claim to have even hit for that kind of power in the minors. It has to work both ways here.
I say all of this as someone who voted for Mesoraco and who has Norris 7 spots behind Mesoraco on my top 100 list.
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by gatling on Dec 16, 2025 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Sounds like we are mostly in agreement, so I'll leave it with this
while neither guy has played in any run-padding environments, Mesoraco spent two of his first 3 seasons in the GCL and FSL, respectively, which are two of the most run-supressing leagues in the minors. In fact, a .154 ISO in the FSL is pretty good for anyone not named Montero or Stanton.
Also, he was dealing with thumb and hand injuries on and off all 3 seasons, so if you are crediting Norris because of the hamate (which is fair) you should probably do the same for Mesoraco’s first 2 seasons
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 16, 2025 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'm fine with that
I wasn’t trying to knock Mesoraco’s power at all(in fact, I stated further up the thread that I think Mesoraco has a slight advantage in power), I just didn’t feel you were treating the two players in the same manner. That’s why I brought it up.
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by gatling on Dec 16, 2025 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
(I guess I lied)
you’re right, I might have been a bit unfair on Norris’ power.
I guess the only thing I would say is that, to me, there’s a HUGE difference between a .285 and .227 ISO. More so than a difference between, say, .227 and .169.
The reason is that a lot of players post a season or two of .227 power in the minors. Also, a relatively large number of MLB players hit that number at least once. For example, 24 MLB players reached .227 this season, but only 3 got to .284. That’s a huge difference.
So I understand that Norris has a history of above average power that was improving, and the hamate likely is to blame for the lack this year. But you can’t just assume that he’s going to continue to improve on the power all the way up to a .280+ ISO. It just doesn’t happen very often, but we’ve seen it from Mesoraco at the age of 21/22.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 16, 2025 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, it wouldn't be right to assume that(I wasn't doing that btw)
Just the same though, I don’t think you can assume Mesoraco will maintain an ISO of .280+ either.
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by gatling on Dec 16, 2025 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
of course. you can't assume anything
But a lot of stock has to be put into what has actually been accomplished to this point.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 16, 2025 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Norris had amazing power in 09 in the SAL.
I believe it was in the .280-290 range before his August, in which he was admittedly exhausted from his first full year of catching. {i know this because i followed his line every night.], and the managers hardly DH’d him until August/Sept when it was obvious it had taken a toll on his hitting.
his ISOP’s by month, with PA:
April - 78 PA, .216 ISOP
May - 117 PA, .320 ISOP
June - 109 PA, .154 ISOP
July - 116 PA, .354 ISOP [this was around whenever i was doing my midseason lists, and i noticed that the only decent prospect close to Stanton was this guy named Norris, and i think they were actually equal at August 1st, or at least within .010 points]
August - 105 PA, .067 ISOP [this killed his season line]
Sept - 15 PA, .000 ISOP [exhausted… he was only BB’ing or K’ing at this point]
by daveh33 on Dec 16, 2025 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Its a close one
Count:
Norris - 34 (last vote InstantClassic)
Mesoraco - 35 (last vote nothinlikethetown)
by cookiedabookie on Dec 16, 2025 6:58 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, I was going to call it this afternoon
but they’ve been within a vote or two all day. I guess we’ll go 24 hours on it. Hopefully it won’t end in a tie. Thoughts on that? Put them both on? Go with total votes in the original poll?
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by gatling on Dec 16, 2025 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
both on.
there’s really not much separating them. very similar prospects. slight power edge to mesoraco. but bb% edge to norris. both have had injuries and production.
by daveh33 on Dec 16, 2025 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
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